Folding Ranges and Bet Sizing
Let's say you are going to make a river bluff versus an opponent. You have deduced that heeither has a top pair type hand, a missed flush draw, a missed straight draw, or a slow-played set thathas made a full house. Your opponent hasn't played a lot with you and it's unlikely he will read into yoursizing too much, so you have a plethora of bet sizes from which to choose, and need to figure out whatthe best one is for your holdings (a bluff). If you are betting for value, you would want to bet themaximum he would call without increasing his folding range. But since you are bluffing, you will want tobet the minimum amount that gets him to fold without increasing his calling range.Let's look at an example of our
sake, we will assume he hasno raising range.
Let’s just say the board is Jd 8d 3c 4s 4h and you believe your opponent has:
After paying attention to our opponent’s tendencies we believe he will call up to a 1.25 PSB with
top pair hands, he will not call any bets over ¼ pot with missed flush draws and straight draws, and willcall all bets with full houses.
(For the example he isn’t raising, it’s just an example.) It’s very important to
calculate the frequency at which your opponent has each of these possible hands to help determine thebest amount to bet, in order to to get the most folds. There are 12 combinations of offsuit hands, 4combinations of suited hands, and 6 combinations of pocket pairs. When there are board cards that hit
an opponent’s range, it also makes it slightly less likely that an opponent has paired, since one of the
cards in their range is now on the board. When you originally had someone on 16 combinations of AJ,they can now only have 12 (here they lose the 4 Ax Jd combos).MissedDrawTopPairFullHouseATdd AJ
15T9s - 3Total 25 48 9
There are 82 total hand combinations, 25/82 will fold to any ¼ PSB or higher, 73/82 will fold toany 1.25 PSB or higher, and 9 will not fold to any bet. Take a look at this graph and pay close attentionto the inflection points: