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A New Approach to Determine Base Intermediate and Peak-Demand in an Electric Power System

A New Approach to Determine Base Intermediate and Peak-Demand in an Electric Power System

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Published by: Pramod B.Wankhade on Jan 08, 2009
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05/09/2014

 
2006
International
Conference
on
Power
SystemTechnology
A
New
Approach
to
Determine
Base,
Intermediate
and
Peak-Demand
in
an
Electric
Power
System
A.
Salimi-beni
Iran
Grid
Management
Company-IGMC
Beni(tavanir.org.ir
D.
Farrokhzad
Iran
Grid
Management
Company-IGMC
farokhzadgtavanir.org.ir
Abstract--Electricity
demand
varies
from
place
to
place
andfrom
country
to
country
depending
on
the
mix
of
demand,
the
climate,
and
other
factors.
A
typical
loadcurveof
a
power
electricity
system
through
one
period
of
time
is
normally
divided
into
three
parts
as
base,
intermediate
and
peak-load.
While
having
accurate
information
for
the
three
parts
of
a
loadcurve
is
veryimportant,
it
is
not
an
easytask
to
calculatethebase,
intermediate
and
peak-load
of
a
particular
system.
This
paper
presentsa
new
statistical
approach
to
calculatethethree
main
parts
of
a
systemload
demand;
base,
intermediate
and
peak-loadusing
a
cluster
analysis
which
is
oneof
the
statistical
methods
to
in
data
categorizing.
The
main
advantage
of
the
proposed
technique
is
that
it
can
be
applied
to
situationsin
which
LDC
or
system
load
factor
varies.
The
applicability
of
the
proposed
technique
is
illustrated
by
determining
thebase,
intermediate
and
peak-load
fordifferent
seasons
ofIran
power
network.
Index
Terms--Base
load,
cluster
analysis,
Intermediate
load,
Load
Division
Curve(LDC),
Peak
load.
I.
INTRODUCTION
T
E
importanceof
electricity
in
our
economy
and
in
all
aspects
of
our
lives
is
constantly
growing.
Modem
society
because
of
its
pattern
of
social
and
working
habits
has
come
to
expect
the
supply
to
be
continuously
available
on
demand.
This
can
onlybe
achieved
by
focusing
on
all
aspects
of
an
electric
power
system
from
the
generating
units
through
the
transmission
system
down
to
the
customer
at
the
end
of
the
distribution
system.
At
the
same
time,
electric
power
utilities
are
required
to
operate
their
systems
more
efficiently
andeconomicallyand
thereforethe
planning
process
is
becoming
a
critical
factor
in
determining
the
performanceand
design
of
power
systems.
One
of
the
main
issues
in
this
regard
is
to
acknowledge
that
reliable
forecasting
of
the
expected
growth
inelectric
energy
demand
is
the
fundamental
determinant
of
the
necessity
for
system
development
and/or
reinforcement.
M.
Fotuhi-Firuzabad
Departmentof
Electrical
Engineering
Sharif
University
of
Technology
fotuhi@sharif.edu
S.
J.
Alemohammad
Khozestan
Electric
Power
Regional
Company
Accurateload
forecasting
is
an
important
issue
as
it
ensures
the
availability
of
supply
and
also
provides
a
mean
to
avoid
over
or
under
utilization
of
generation,transmission
and
distribution
facilities.
Electricity
demand
fluctuates
throughout
every
24-hour
period
as
well
as
through
the
week,
and
also
seasonally.
It
also
varies
from
place
to
place
andfrom
country
to
country
dependingon
the
mix
of
demand,
the
climate,
and
other
factors.
A
typical
load
curve
of
a
power
electricity
system
through
one
period
of
time
is
normally
divided
into
three
parts
as
base,
intermediate
and
peak-load.Figure
1
shows
these
three
main
parts.
The
shape
of
such
a
curve
will
vary
markedly
according
to
the
kind
of
demand.Whilehaving
accurate
information
for
thethree
parts
of
a
load
curve
is
very
important,
it
is
not
aneasy
task
to
calculatethe
base,intermediate
and
peak-loadof
aparticular
system.
Determination
of
these
three
main
parts
of
system
demand
is
oneof
the
major
issues
in
power
system
planning.
Because
of
thelargefluctuations
in
demand
over
the
course
of
the
day,
it
is
normal
to
have
several
types
of
power
stations
broadly
categorized
as
base-load,
intermediate-load
and
peak
load
stations.
The
base
load
stations
[4]are
usually
steam-
driven
and
run
more
or
less
continuously
at
near
rated
power
output.
Coal
and
nuclear
power
are
the
main
energy
sources
used.
Intermediate-load
and
peak-load
stations
mustbe
capable
ofbeing
brought
on
line
and
shut
down
quickly
once
or
twice
daily.
A
variety
of
techniques
are
used
for
intermediate
and
peak-load
generation
including
gas
turbines,
gas-and
oil-fired
steam
boilers
and
hydro-electricgeneration.
Peak-load
equipment
tends
to
be
characterized
by
low
capital
cost,
and
relatively
high
fuel
cost
is
not
a
great
problem.
1-4244-0111-9/06/$20.00c02006
IEEE.
I
 
2
LDC
Iran
Network
2001
Peak
loadIntermediateload
Base
load
1
1441
2881
4321
Time
d
(P,
Q)
=
(x1
-
Y1)2
+
(x2
-
Y2
)2
+
+
(x_
y_
)2
=
^\/X
-
)'
X
-
Y
)
(1)
The
statistical
distance
between
the
sametwo
observations
can
be
expressed
in
the
form
of:
d(X,
Y)
=
(-
(-
Y)
_N
Ordinarily,
A
=
S
1
,
where
S
contains
the
sample
variances
576172018641
and
co-variances.
Another
distance
measure
is
the
Minkowski
metric:
Fig
1.
Iran
loadduration
curve
for
2001
The
base
load
demand
[1]
for
reliable,
continuoussupplyof
large
amounts
of
electricity
is
the
key
factor
in
any
system.
The
main
investment
of
any
electric
utility
is
to
meet
that
kindof
demand.
As
well
as
daily
and
weekly
variations
in
demand
there
are
gradual
changes
occurring
in
the
pattern
of
electricity
demand
from
year
to
year.
In
most
literature,
attempt
has
not
been
devoted
to
develop
a
technique
to
calculate
base,
intermediate
and
peak-load.
[5]
-
[8]
This
paper
presents
a
new
statistical
approach
to
calculate
thethree
main
parts
of
a
system
load
demand;
base,intermediate
and
peak-load.
This
technique
is
based
on
a
cluster
analysis
which
is
one
of
the
statistical
methods
in
data
categorizing.
Themain
advantage
of
the
proposed
technique
is
that
it
can
be
applied
to
situations
in
which
LDC
or
systemload
factor
varies.
The
applicability
of
the
proposed
technique
is
illustrated
by
determining
base,
intermediate
and
peak-load
fordifferent
seasons
of
Iran
power
network.
II.
METHODOLOGY
A.
Cluster
analysis
Grouping
or
clustering
is
distinct
from
the
classification
methods.
Classification
pertains
to
a
known
number
of
groups,
and
the
operational
objective
is
to
assign
new
observations
to
one
of
these
groups.
Cluster
analysis
is
concerned
with
forming
groups
of
similar
objects
based
on
several
measurement
of
different
kinds
made
on
the
objects.
The
key
idea
is
to
identify
classifications
of
the
objects
that
would
be
useful
for
the
aimsof
theanalysis.
This
idea
has
been
applied
in
various
areas.
Before
implementing
any
technique
for
clustering,
it
is
required
to
define
a
measure
for
distances
between
utilities
so
thatsimilar
utilities
are
a
short
distance
apart
and
dissimilar.
Ones
are
far
from
each
other,
a
popular
distance
measure
based
on
variables
that
take
on
values
is
to
standardize
the
values
by
dividing
by
the
standarddeviation
(sometimes
other
measures
such
as
range
are
used)and
then
to
compute
the
distance
between
objects
using
the
Euclidean
metric
method.
B.
Similarity
measure
The
straight-line
distance
between
two
arbitrary
points
P
and
Q
with
coordinates
P
=
(XI
x2
...
,
)
and
(YI,Y2.
,)
is
given
by
Il/m
(2)
d
(P,
Q)
=
x
i-yilm
i=l
For
m=1,
d(X,Y)
measures
the
"
city-block"
distance
between
two
points
in
p
dimensions.
For
m=2,
d(X,Y)
becomes
the
Euclidean
distance.
In
general,
varying
m
changes
the
weight
is
given
to
the
larger
and
smaller
differences.
The
construction
of
distances
and
similarities
has
been
described.
It
is
always
possible
to
construct
similarities
from
distances.
Forexample,
we
might
set
Sik
(3)
1
+
dik
Where
0
<
Sik
<
1
is
the
similarity
between
items
i
and
k
and
di.
is
the
corresponding
distance.
The
less
subjective
schemes
for
creating
clusterswill
be
discussed
in
more
detail.
In
general,
there
are
two
main
approaches
for
clustering
and
they
are
[2]:
1.
Hierarchical
cluster
methods
2.
Nonhierarchical
cluster
methods
The
second
approach
is
used
in
this
paper.
Nonhierarchical
clustering
techniques
are
designed
to
group
items
into
a
collection
of
k
clusters,
rather
than
variables.
Thenumber
of
clusters,
k,
may
either
be
specified
in
advance
or
determined
as
part
of
the
clustering
procedure.
Because
a
matrix
of
distances
(similarities)
does
not
have
to
be
determined
and
the
basic
data
do
not
have
to
be
stored
during
the
computer
run,
nonhierarchical
methods
can
beapplied
to
much
larger
data
sets
than
hierarchical
techniques.
One
of
the
more
popular
nonhierarchical
procedures
known
as
the
k-
means
is
investigated
in
the
following
subsection.
C.
K-means
method:
This
algorithm
[3]
assigns
eachitem
to
the
cluster
having
the
nearest
centroid
(mean).
In
its
simplest
version,
the
process
is
composed
of
these
three
steps:
1.
Partition
the
items
in
to
k
initial
cluster.
2.
Proceedthrough
the
list
of
items,
assigning
an
item
to
the
cluster
whose
centroid
(mean)
is
nearest.
(Distance
is
usually
computed
using
Euclidean
distance
with
either
standardized
or
unstandardized
observations)
recalculate
the
centriod
for
the
cluster
receiving
the
new
item
and
for
the
cluster
losing
theitem.
2500020000
1-e
ct
1500010000
 
3.
Repeat
step
2
until
no
more
reassignments
take
place.
Rather
than
starting
with
a
partition
of
all
items
into
k
preliminary
groups
in
step
1.
We
could
specify
k
initial
centroids
(seed
points)
and
then
proceed
tostep
2.
The
final
assignment
of
items
to
clusterswillbe,
to
some
extent,
dependent
upon
the
initial
partition
or
the
initial
selection
of
seed
points.
Experience
shows
that
most
major
changes
in
assignment
occur
with
the
first
reallocation
step.
III.
APPLICATION
Using
the
approach
described
in
the
previous
sections,
thethree
main
parts
of
the
system
load
demand,
base
load,
intermediate
load
andpeak
load,
are
calculated
using
an
statistical
software
SPSS.
Hourlypeak
loads
of
Iran
network
as
well
as
Khozestan
region
are
used
for
the
study
results
presented
in
this
paper.
A.
Calculating
base,
intermediate
andpeak
load
of
Iran
network
1
2
LOAD2001
20318
15003
3000025000
-20000
a
0
15000
10000
1
1441
28814321
5761
7201864
Time
Fig.
2.
Hourlypeak
load
of
Iran
in
year
2001.
Using
the
nonhierarchical
cluster
algorithm
and
K-Means
techniquepresented
in
the
previous
section,
the
intervals
associated
with
the
base
and
peak
load
of
Iran
network
are
calculated.
The
hourly
peak
load
of
Iran
network
for
the
year
2001
are
used
for
theanalysis
presented
in
this
section.
In
the
first
step,
the
number
of
cluster
is
assumed
to
be
2
and
basedon
the
first
step
of
the
proposed
algorithm
initial
cluster
centers
are
determined.
These
values
are
shown
in
Table
I.
TABLE
I
Initial
Cluster
Centers
Cluster
1
2
LOAD2001
26385
10453
Inthe
second
step,
the
algorithm
is
converged
after
7
iterations.
The
results
associated
witheach
iteration
are
presented
in
Table
II.
After
convergence,
based
on
the
third
step
of
the
proposed
algorithm,
final
clusters
are
obtained
as
shown
in
Table
III.
The
values
lower
than
the
minimum
cluster;
here
15003
MW,
are
considered
as
baseloadwhile
the
values
upper
than
the
maximum
cluster;
here
20318
MW,
are
considered
to
be
the
peak
load.
The
distance
between
the
peak
and
baseload
is
the
intermediate
load
as
shown
in
Figure
2.
TABLE
II
As
noted
earlier,[9]
having
accurate
information
on
the
base,
intermediate
andpeak
load
is
an
important
issue
as
it
ensures
theavailability
of
supply
and
also
provides
a
mean
to
avoid
over
or
under
utilization
of
generation,transmission
and
distribution
facilities.
Figure
3
shows
that
the
system
requires
baseload
stations
for
27.45%
of
the
time
during
a
year.
Thermal
and
nuclear
units
are
appropriate
for
the
base
load.
54.111%
of
the
time
period,
this
system
requires
generating
units
appropriate
for
the
intermediate
load.
Combined
cycle
units
are
considered
to
be
appropriate
for
the
intermediate
load.
Finally
the
system
should
have
sufficient
peak
load
stationsfor
18.44%
of
the
year.
Hydro
and
gas
turbine
units
are
in
the
peak
load
station
categories.
3000025000
-
20000
ct
0
15000
10000
L
Peak
load
18.44%
Base
load
27.45%
1
1441
2881
4321
5761
Time
7201
8641
Fig.
3.
Load
duration
curve
of
Iran
network
for
2001
Iteration
History
Change
in
Cluster
Centers
Iteration
1
2
1
5608.2754861.253
2
216.329146.022
3
113.64076.818466.44045.443
5
34.363
23.721
6
18.60012.864
7
6.691
4.621
TABLE
III
FinalCluster
Centers
Cluster
B.
CalculatingBase,Intermediate
andPeak
load
of
Khozestan
RegionNetwork
Khozestan
is
located
in
the
south
west
of
Iran
and
has
a
very
hot
climate.
This
is
the
main
reason
in
selecting
this
region
separately
from
the
whole
country
presented
in
Subsection
A.
In
addition,
the
study
results
presented
inthis
section
can
be
compared
with
those
obtained
for
the
whole
country
to
show
the
impactsofweather
climate
on
the
percentage
of
base,
intermediate
and
peak
load.
Similar
to
the
previous
study,
the
hourly
peak
load
of
2001
for
Khozestan
region
is
used
for
the
analysis
of
this
section.
3

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