Dam-breaks and consequences. X M Carreira25
August 2012 Page 2 of 12Numerical and physical models are used to answer these questions but the development of a dambreak is a complicated extreme problem that contains a lot of uncertainties.
2.1.1D NUMERICAL MODELLING
Even though, the probability of dam failure can be extremely low, but its occurrences can implycatastrophic consequences downstream, including loss of human lives, properties, natural resourcesand so on. Therefore, significant predictive data on hypothetical flood events such as flood flows,flow velocities, depths and flood wave arrival times at specific locations downstream of the dambecome some of the most important pieces of information for disaster preparedness such as for theformulation of Emergency Response Plan (ERP) guidelines [TURA02].General international practices on dam safety would include procedures that suit practicalmanagement of the dam conditions such as sending early warning and notification messages of emergency situation to the authorities, as well as information on inundation of critical areas foraction in case of emergency. Generally, dam break analysis aims at predicting downstream hazardpotential systematically in equitable approaches. Numerical modelling process simulations can becarried out based on the topography of a catchment area using an appropriate grid size of approximately 200 m. Generally, a scenario discharge may be assumed in the simulation and floodaffected areas may be predicted over a distance of 25 km downstream of the dam, and 1 to 2 km inwidth [BOSS99].Currently, there are a number of dam break simulation models widely used by researchers andconsultants such as the national weather service dam break forecasting, Mike-21 (Danish Hydraulic Institute), HEC-HMS/HEC-RAS flood hydrograph (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), BOSS DAMBRK hydrodynamic flood routing and soil conservation service (SCS)TR#66 uniform dam failure hydrograph. Downstream hazards may include potential loss of humanlives, properties (such as residences, commercial buildings, industrial facilities, croplands andpasturelands), infrastructures and utilities located downstream of the dam [TURA02].The 1D modelling for the dam break hazard analyses is based on an implicit finite differencescheme. The cross-sections used in the model can be taken either from a GIS terrain model or theycan be on-site measured cross-sections.
2.2. CFD TECHNIQUES
In the case of very complicated topography, the use of a 2-dimensional model seems to be morereasonable than the use of a 1D model. One-dimensional model needs a lot of experience since thecross-sections have to be put at the right locations. The use of a 2-dimensional models is morestraightforward.The impact flow on a vertical wall resulting from a dam break problem can be simulated using aNavier-Stokes (NS) solver. The NS solver uses an Eulerian Finite Volume Method (FVM) alongwith a volume of fluid (VOF) scheme for phase interface capturing. One of the most commonComputational fluid dynamics (CFD) packages for simulations of free surface problems is