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11PPM_DecisionTheory

# 11PPM_DecisionTheory

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05/13/2014

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Decision making problems
#An Informatics Corporation summarizes international financial informationreports (on weekly basis). Prints sophisticated data and forecasts which arepurchased weekly by mutual funds, banks and insurance companies. Thisinformation is very expensive and the demand for the report is limited to amaximum of 30 units per week. The possible demands are 0, 10, 20 or 30 per week. The profit per report sold is Rs. 30 and the loss per report unsold at the end of aweek is Rs. 20. No production of extra reports during a week is possible. Further,there is penalty cost of Rs. 250, for not meeting demand. Unsold reports cannot becarried over to the next week. Using payoff table, find out the number of reports tobe produced if:i)Maximin or pessimistic strategy is adopted.ii)Maximax or optimistic strategy is adopted.#A small industry finds from the past data, that the cost of making an item isRs. 25, the selling price of an item is Rs. 30, if it is sold within a week and it could bedisposed at Rs. 20 per item at the end of the week:Weekly SalesNo. of weeks<=30410520640730>=80Find the optimum number of items per week should the industry produce.

Forecasting:
Sales(Rs. Inlakh)WorkingCapital (Rs.In )638496544.529.55Forecast Sales for the Working Capital of Rs. 8,00,000.yxxyy2x2y-y
-
x-x
-
(x-x^)
2
(y-y
-
)*(x-x
-
)6318369-1-11184326416100096548136224454202516-20004.52920.254-2.5-2459.5547.590.25252.5112.5
42 24180.5316.5106 0 0 10 12.5
741682496b 1.25180.524106a 2 -12.50-10b-1.25a2