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Table Of Contents

Executive summary1
Introduction – Six reasons to worry
Defining a hard economic landing
Defining a “hard landing”
Triggers and timing
Policy responses
Perceived likelihood
Nomura‟s China Stress Index (CSI)
1. Overinvestment and excessive credit
Box 2: China’s challenging GDP arithmetic8
Box 3: Lessons from Japan on the return and cost of capital
Box 4: Shadow banking in the US and China compared
3. The privileged state-owned enterprises
Box 5: Investment is high, but savings are even higher
Box 6: The Akerlof market for lemons problem applied to China
4. Unintended consequences of financial liberalization
Box 7: A chronology of China’s capital account liberalization
Box 8: Risks associated with financial liberalization: lessons from Japan
5. The Lewis turning point
6. The setting in of growing pains
Demographic challenges
Box 9: China’s hukou household registration system
Rising inequality and an aspiring middle class
Resource and environmental strains
Pricing a China hard landing – Strategy perspectives
Global macro perspectives
Global equity perspective
Asia-ex Japan FX perspective
China equities – the risk
Chinese credits – already reflecting the risks of a China hard landing
Appendix: The Construction of Nomura‟s China
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Nomura Report on China

Nomura Report on China

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Published by Simon Louie
Report on outlook of Chinese economic future
Report on outlook of Chinese economic future

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Published by: Simon Louie on Jul 10, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial


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