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Monthlyindicatorsreport July 2012pdf

Monthlyindicatorsreport July 2012pdf

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July 2012
 –
Monthly Indicators Page 1 of 4
TABLE 1
 –
Prison Population Forecast
Actual (*AvgDaily Count)OPM 2011Forecast
Diff. %
FEB '12 17,224* 17,224MAR 17,117* 17,171 -0.3%APR 16,973* 17,172 -1.2%MAY 16,829* 17,100 -1.6%JUN 16,698* 17,143 -2.6%JUL 16,586* 17,213 -3.6%AUG - 17,238SEP - 17,263OCT - 17,238NOV - 17,121DEC - 17,013JAN '13 - 16,587FEB - 16,756* Average Daily Count, first week of month
 
Highlights
On July 1, 16,591 people wereincarcerated in state prisonfacilities. The last time this figurewas lower on July 1 was in 1998.In June, 978 offenders completedtheir prison sentences. Of these,821 received at least one day ofRisk Reduction Earned Credit(RREC). Among offenders whodischarged with credit, 359 werealready in community programs;462 were discharged directly fromprison.Chart 2A shows the number ofoffenders who discharged theirprison sentences between January2010 and June 2012. RREC wasexpanded to prisoners duringNovember 2011; the chart showsthat following an initial spike indischarges due to the retroactiveapplication of RREC credits, thevolume of monthly discharges hasnot risen dramatically.The number of offenders on homeconfinment for DUI and minor drugoffenses rose to 119 by July 1
st
(see table 2). It has been reportedthat up to 60% of these offenderscontinue to hold jobs while onhome confinement.
Prison Population Forecast
The prison population continuesto drop at a rate and in a mannerthat defies historical modelling.Between October 1, 2011 andJuly 1, 2012, the prison systemshrank by 1,171 inmates (Note:table 1 and chart 1 report figuresby the Average Daily Count, notthe first-of-the-month count).This rate of decline in the prisonpopulation is without precedentin Connecticut.Last month, the prison count fellbelow the level that OPMprojected for January 2013.
OPM’s prison po
pulationprojection is based on a model that relies on 25 years of historical data onthe Connecticut prison system. The model produces a set of scenariosthat project different rates of growth or decline in the prison population. Inconsultation with experts who are knowledgeable about current conditionsand operations of the prison system, OPM selects a specific scenario touse as its projection over the following year. In January 2012, OPMassumed that the prison population would continue to decline as it has inrecent years. What OPM did not anticipate was the steep and prolongeddecline that we have witnessed since October 2011.
CHART 1
 –
Actual ADC of the prison population against the OPM forecast
 
January 1, 2011 through February 1, 2013 
Page 2 has been revised. In future issues, the charts and tables at the bottom of page 2 will change each month. They will feature more trend data and information on developments in 
the state’s criminal justice
system. In this issue, page contains 1) a chart of monthly prison discharges from Jan.2010 through June 2012,and 2)a chart of the July 1
st 
prison population from 1992 to 2012,
Available online at: www.ct.gov/OPM/CriminalJustice/Research
July 2012
 
Published by the Connecticut Statistical Analysis Center at the Connecticut Office of Policy & Management 
 
OPM - Criminal Justice Policy
&
Planning Division
Monthly Indicators Report
17,774
16,58617,213
16,40016,60016,80017,00017,20017,40017,60017,80018,000
   J   A   N    '   1   1   F   E   B   M   A   R   A   P   R   M   A   Y   J   U   N   J   U   L   A   U   G   S   E   P   O   C   T   N   O   V   D   E   C   J   A   N    '   1   2   F   E   B   M   A   R   A   P   R   M   A   Y   J   U   N   J   U   L   A   U   G   S   E   P   O   C   T   N   O   V   D   E   C   J   A   N    '   1   3   F   E   B
ADC - ActualOPM Projection
 
July 2012
 –
Monthly Indicators Page 2 of 4
CHART 2
 –
 
Connecticut Criminal Justice System
 –
Monthly Overview
This chart contains monthly totals for June 2012 and figures reported for July 1, 2012.Asterisks (*) indicate the count for July 1, 2012. Figures enclosed by parenthesis are for the previous month.Data sources include: Arrests-OBTS, Court and probation data: CSSD, all other data CT DOC
CHART 2A
 
 –
 
Monthly discharges, EOS
 8  7  8  8  8  4  0  3  7  9  3  4  8  8  6  9  3  9  4  8  8  8  5  9  3  0  8  9  9  8  8  7  9  3  6  8  9  4  9  0  9  5  7  9  5  8  8  9  8  7  0  8  3  9  8  6  4  7  9  4  0  3  5 1 0  9  6  9  9  9  9  6  0  8  5  3  9  5  9  7  8 
050010001500
 J   A  N'    0  F  M A  R  A  P  R  M A  Y  J   U N J   U A  U G  S  P  O C  T  N O V  C  J   A  N'    F  M A  R  A  P  R  M A  Y  J   U N J   U A  U G  S  P  O C  T  N O V  C  J   A  N'    F  M A  R  A  P  R  M A  Y  J   U N
Offenders completing their sentences (EOS)
 
CHART 2B
 
 –
 
Connecticut’s P
rison Population on July 1
st
, 1992 - 2012
 0 
 7  6  9 
 4  5 
 4  8  8  9  4  9  6  7 
 5  5  8  8 
 5  9  0  9  6  7  7  6 
 7  4  5  9 
 7  7  0  0  8  8  7  3 
 9 
 8  5  8  8  5  0 
 8  5  6  8 
 8  8  9  9  4  3 
 8  8  9 
 8  4  3  7  6  3 
 6  5  9 
100001200014000160001800020000
 9  9  9  9  3  9  9  4  9  9  5  9  9  6  9  9  7  9  9  8  9  9  9  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  3  0  0  4  0  0  5  0  0  6  0  0  7  0  0  8  0  0  9  0  0  0  0 
 
July 2012
 –
Monthly Indicators Page 3 of 4
TABLE 2
 –
 
DOC Population Counts, First of the Month
2011201120122011
May 1stJune 1July 1July 1MonthlyAnnual
DOC Facility
Federal/Other158138136139-1.4%-2.2%Sentenced12,74912,66612,48313,590-1.4%-8.1%Special Parole3273423443220.6%6.8%Pre-trial3,6243,5723,6283,5801.6%1.3%
Total
16,85816,71816,59117,631-0.8%-5.9%
Transfer Parole766300.0%-80.0%Parole/ Parcom Total 1,2871,3081,3361,7892.1%-25.3%Parole1,1141,1331,1661,6132.9%-27.7%Parcom @ CT173175170176-2.9%-3.4%Furlough 242529216.0%1350.0%Trans Placement1117221329.4%69.2%Home confinement/DUI81103119015.5%- Halfway House Total 1,0821,0801,0171,105-5.8%-8.0%Comm Release875879828878-5.8%-5.7%TS16151014-33.3%-28.6%Parole798170103-13.6%-32.0%Transfer Parole0000-- Special Parole1121051091093.8%0.0%TS Total7247767859961.2%-21.2%Special Parole1,1291,1261,1309140.4%23.6%
Total
4,3454,4414,4444,8490.1%-8.4%
% Change
DOC Community
 
TABLE 3
 –
 
DOC Admissions and Releases, Monthly Totals*
2011201120122011
Apr.MayJuneJuneMonthlyAnnual
Admissions
Federal/Other9310279106-22.5%-25.5%Returns168234187212-20.1%-11.8%Transfer Parole0552-- Parole43543558-35.2%-39.7%Trans Plac/Furlough1325-- HWH41493932-20.4%21.9%TS45605937-1.7%59.5%Special Parole38634743-25.4%9.3%New Sentence323403320367-20.6%-12.8%
VOP 
9110069100-31.0%-31.0%Pre-trial1,5551,6651,67617480.7%-4.1%
Total
2,1392,4042,2622,433-5.9%-7.0%
Releases
Transfer Parole21218100.0%-88.9%Parole158202174187-13.9%-7.0%Trans Plac/Furlough32373872.7%442.9%Home Confinement DUI555261017.3%- HWH183244164182-32.8%-9.9%TS2312722862945.1%-2.7%Special Parole7074847513.5%12.0%End of Sentence8539529788702.7%12.4%
Total
1,584 1,834 1,787 1,633
-2.6%9.4%
Pre-trial Releases*
Did not return from Court575584581560-0.5%3.8%Release to Bond4014724835232.3%-7.6%
% Change
 
*Monthly totals count occurrences, not individuals.
Board of Pardons and Parole
TABLE 4 - Prisoners with sentences greaterthan 24 monthsTABLE 4A
 –
Paroles Granted, New cases
HearingsGrantedRateAPR21316276%MAY20015075%JUNE15011476%
 
TABLE 4B
 –
Other Parole Hearings
ReparoledDeniedReparoledDeniedAPR34241513MAY63321416JUN37201411
RevocationsRescissions
 
Public Defender Services
TABLE 5
 –
Public Defender Cases
 
GA JD GA JDMAR 5,671 225 4,245 161APR 5,292 208 4,130 178MAY 6,112 322 4,556 183
Cases disposedCases appointed
 
CSSD
 –
Adult Probation
TABLE 6
 –
Monthly CSSD Direct Sentenced &Probationer Community Placements
CommunityBasedOut-patientInpatient/ ResidentTotalFEB7871,22322*2,032MAR1,263809312,103APR1,118823221,963
 
*Inpatient residential figure for February reflects a counting change by CSSD. May data was not available at the time of publication.
Pre-trial Diversion and Supervision
TABLE 7
 –
P
re-trial and split sentence starts
 
Pre-trial BailCase StartsClient Supv.StartsSplit SentenceStartsAPR2,3892,402455MAY2,5882,567478JUN2,4642,269484
 
TABLE 8
 –
The Jail Re-interview Program
OffendersinterviewedOffendersreleasedReleaseslast yearMAR 1,258 702 819APR 1,048 660 673MAY 1,358 733 719JUNE 1,240 751 725
 
Data Notes: Figures are based on operational data available at the time of this report. Data in subsequent issues may not agree.
Parole elligibleNot elligibleMAY8,529831JUNE8,456835JULY8,384838

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