Commodity Specialist Guide 24

Week 24 12th June 18th June 2012
Summary Energy
+ Brent Crude Oil + Natural Gas + Heating Oil
Metals
+ Gold + Silver + High Grade Copper
Grains and Softs

+ Soybeans + Wheat + Sugar 11 + Cocoa + Coffee + Cotton No.2
Other
+ Carbon Emissions + CRB Index
The Commodity Specialist Guide

Philip J Allwright
Mark Sturdy
Authorised and regulated by the FSA
Disclaimer
Summary Commodity Specialist
Summary Energy
+ Brent Crude Oil + Natural Gas + Heating Oil Stay BEARISH long term 23.6% pullback breached, focus now on 38.2% (Aug-12) Stay BEARISH slip back from 23.6% resistance continues (Jul-12) Stay BEARISH pullback sees test of Oct-11 low (Jul-12)
Metals
+ Gold + Silver + High Grade Copper Stay BEARISH Dec-11 low area remains key support (Aug-12) Stay BEARISH current support coming from Sep/Dec-11 lows (Jul-12) Stay BEARISH 76.4% retracement offers s/term support (Jul-12)
Grains and Softs

+ Soybeans + Wheat + Sugar 11 + Cocoa + Coffee + Cotton No.2 Stay SQUARE Stay Stay Stay Stay Stay SQUARE BEARISH SQUARE SQUARE BEARISH temporary support found (Nov-12) deep slip back prompted by 38.2% resistance (Jul-12) downside focus on dual support from 76.4% & Fibo projection (Jul-12) s/term support emerges from Dec-11 low area (Sep-12) weakness sees channel base support under pressure (Sep12) s/term bounce in process (Dec-12)
Other
+ Carbon Emissions + CRB Index Stay SQUARE market action holding near old support (Dec-12) Stay BEARISH focus turning to lower supports
Energy
In Brent Crude the pullback is closing in on the long term 38.2% retracement. There is a similar situation in Heating Oil. Natural Gas is slipping away from recent 23.6% resistance.
Summary Energy
Energy: Brent Crude Oil (ICE)
Monthly Chart Continuation:

The recovery from last years low was short-lived, with the market now in correction mode.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Weekly Chart Continuation:

Failure around the 2011 peak has been followed by a more serious correction now.
Summary Energy
The 23.6% retracement of the 2009/2012 upmove has been violated, with focus now on the 93.18 38.2% level, then 89.58 May-10 high.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Daily Chart Aug-12:

Further weakness has seen an approach towards the 94.73 early Oct-11 low, where s/term support has been found. S/term we await better reaction around here.
Summary Energy
The interest is now as much in the longer term charts. We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Energy: Light Crude Oil (NYMEX)
Daily Chart Aug-12:

Continued weakness has seen breach of the 76.4% retracement. There is now little in the way of a return to the 77.65 Oct-11.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Energy: Natural Gas (NYMEX)

The market has found initial support close to the 1.760 Sep01 low.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


The slip back earlier pushed below the 2.409 2009 low but no follow-through.
Other
More
Energy: Natural Gas (NYMEX)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

Pullback from the 23.6% resistance has continued, this level remaining the first key hurdle to overcome. Meanwhile we still wait to see if current weakness is temporary the s/term 2.270 76.4% retracement is now being tested. We maintain an overall bear stance for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Energy: Heating Oil (NYMEX)

Earlier recovery was short-lived, the market now in pullback mode.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


The drop back from the 3.3300 Apr-11 high breached the 23.6% pullback level, focus now on the lower 2.4880 38.2% level.
Other
More
Energy: Heating Oil (NYMEX)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

Further weakness has now seen a test of the early Oct-11 2.5631 low area. So far support has emerged here and we await better reaction at present.
Summary Energy
Interest is now as much in the longer term charts. We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
Metals
In Gold support around the Dec-11 low has prompted only a modest bounce so far. Silvers pullback found similar support, with lacklustre recovery attempt. Copper has found s/term support at a 76.4% retracement area.
Summary Energy
Metals: Gold (COMEX)

The major 23.6% retracement is coming under pressure again. A violation of this would open the way to the lower 1278.00 38.2% level next.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More

The rising support line was recently violated, turning focus to lower support at the 1442.00 38.2% level of the 2008/2011 upmove.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Daily Chart Aug-12:

Recovery from support from the area of the 1537.00 Dec-11 low and channel base has so far found resistance within the area defined by the 1616.30 04-Apr low and 1674.30 01-May high.
Summary Energy
As before, a break through this would give the recovery a boost but, at present, focus is equally on the key support.
We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Metals: Silver (COMEX)

The rising support line around 26.40 offers first support here. Potential support from the 21.185 Mar-08 high remains some way off.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


The drop back is turning attention again on the 24.35 61.8% retracement support area.
Other
More
Metals: Silver (COMEX)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

After the drop back found support just above prior lows an initial recovery attempt has been resisted by the 30.00 area.
Summary Energy
At the moment rallies could still prove temporary, and we await clarity in the picture here.
We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Metals: High Grade Copper (COMEX)

Earlier recovery was seen from near the 2.9365 50% pullback level.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


After failing to hold above the area of the 3.8460 May-11 low subsequent weakness is turning attention back on the Oct-11 low near 3.0000.
Other
More
Metals: High Grade Copper (COMEX)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

Recent weakness has found s/term support around the 76.4% retracement, close to prior Nov/Dec-11 lows. Failure here would turn focus on the 3.0800 Oct-11 low next. The 3.5775 16-Apr low offers first resistance, ahead of the rising former channel base at 3.6700.
Summary Energy
Metals
We maintain a bear stance for now.
Grains and Softs

Other
Grains and Softs
Soybeans have bounced after recent weakness. Wheat is so far holding above its May low after recent pullback. Losses in Sugar have neared a long term 76.4% level. Cocoa has found s/term support from the Dec-11 low area. Coffee has stayed weak. Temporary support has emerged in Cotton.
Summary Energy
Grains and Softs: Soybeans (CBOT)

Gains recently saw a breach of last years high but this has proved brief after failure to hold on to the higher levels.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More

After breach of the 2011 highs and 76.4% resistance subsequent pullback has kept the higher bull channel top out of reach for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Daily Chart Nov-12:

Good s/term support has come near the 50% retracement level. We wait to see if this is a temporary reaction ahead of further weakness and test of lower retracements.
Summary Energy
We remain on the sidelines for now.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Grains and Softs: Wheat (CBOT)

After recovery off good support from the 434 2002 high the market has fallen back.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


Earlier support offered by the 583.50 Nov-09 high is still having an effect. The lower 536.00 76.4% pullback level stays out of reach for now.
Other
More
Grains and Softs: Wheat (CBOT)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

The 38.2% 732.00 retracement remains key resistance here. As before, the subsequent deep slip back keeps us firmly sidelined as we wait to see what support can be found at/above the 592.25 11/14-May low. We stay on the sidelines for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Grains and Softs: Sugar (ICE)

The earlier bull move reached the long term 34.75 76.4% recovery level where clear resistance was found. Support from the old 19.73 2006 high is now failing.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


The 20.40 May-11 low has failed as support, with focus now on the 76.4% pullback level at 18.45 will support be found here?
Other
More
Grains and Softs: Sugar (ICE)
Daily Chart Jul-12:

Following recent violation of bear channel base support current downside focus remains on the Fibo projection at 18.43, nicely coinciding with the 76.4% level on the Weekly chart.
Summary Energy
As before, s/term rallies should prove temporary at this stage. We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Grains and Softs: Cocoa (ICE)

Clear support has emerged from the 76.4% level just below 1900.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


The slide back is once more turning attention back on the 1867 Oct-08 low, which lies close to the 76.4% level on the Monthly chart.
Other
More
Grains and Softs: Cocoa (ICE)
Daily Chart Sep-12:

The slip back here has found s/term support at the base of the range marked by the 2038 Dec11 low. The first positive sign at this stage would be recovery through the falling resistance line at 2315 currently. Focus would then turn to the 2533 Jan high. We maintain a sidelined stance for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Grains and Softs: Coffee (ICE)

Support from the old 169.60 Feb08 high has failed, with downside focus now on the 142.65 61.8% retracement of the 2001/2011 upmove.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


On this continuation chart next possible support comes from the area of the 150.00 76.4% level and 149.20 Dec-09 high.
Other
More
Grains and Softs: Coffee (ICE)
Daily Chart Sep-12:

Weakness has put pressure on the falling support line, struggling to provide support. Overhead, a recovery through the 16-May 184.40 high would shake off the shorter term negative outlook here. The interest is also in the longer term charts. We stay on the sidelines for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Grains and Softs: Cotton No.2 (ICE)

The dramatic drop back has clearly violated the 91.38 Mar-08 high area now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


Weakness has seen a breach of the 81.60 76.4% retracement.
Other
More
Grains and Softs: Cotton No.2 (ICE)
Daily Chart Dec-12:

Weakness here has so far stopped short of the Fibo projection at 60.37. We wait to see what bounce can take place. Initial resistance is offered by the falling return line around 75.80, ahead of the 83.25 Dec-11 low. We maintain a bear stance here.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
Other
In EUA (Carbon Emissions) the market stays close to the Jan low. The CRB Indexs recent breach of channel base support keeps bears in favour.
Summary Energy
Other: EUA Carbon Emission Allowances (ICE ECX)

The old floor around 8.00 was pierced earlier. So far no sign of recovery has been seen.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More

Earlier weakness saw price close in on the 5.60 equality target (May/Aug downleg extended off 13.55 31-Aug high).
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Daily Chart Dec-12:

Not much change here, with the market holding around the support area of the early Jan low (which coincides with a Fibo projection). At the moment, a push above the 9.63 28-Feb high is needed to signal better recovery prospects ahead. We remain on the sidelines for now.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
More
Other: CRB Index (CBOT)

Following breach of potential support from the 293.75 Jan-10 high area the Index has now reached the 285.30 61.8% retracement area.
Summary Energy
Metals
Grains and Softs


Recent weakness breached a 76.4% pullback level on this chart. Lower supports come from the projected bear channel base around 255.00 and then 247.25 May-10 low.
Other
More
Other: CRB Index (CBOT)
Daily Chart
The slide in the index continues with little sign of bear fatigue.
The first Fibo projection has now been exceeded. The next one lies at 253.70.
Summary Energy
+ Light Crude Oil + Natural Gas + Heating Oil
The 292.39 Oct-11 low and rising old support/return line around 296.00 offer resistance. We maintain a bear stance here.
Metals
Grains and Softs

Other
SEVEN DAYS AHEAD Authorised and Regulated by the FSA 124 REGENTS PARK ROAD LONDON NW18XL TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL msturdy@sevendaysahead.com, pallwright@sevendaysahead.com WEB SITE SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM The material and information set out in this research is not intended to be a quote of an offer to buy or sell any financial products. Any expression of opinion is based on sources believed to be reasonably reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.
The material and information herein is general and for informational purposes only. Although Seven Days Ahead endeavours to provide useful information they make no guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of the research. The derivative market comprises volatility and considerable risks. To the maximum extent permitted by law no responsibility or liability can be accepted by Seven Days Ahead, any company or employee within its group for any action taken as a result of the information contained in this presentation. You are requested not to rely on any representation in this research and to seek specific advice from your accountant, legal adviser or financial services adviser when dealing with specific circumstances.
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Commodity Specialist Guide 24

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Week 24 12th June 18th June 2012

Grains and Softs

The Commodity Specialist Guide

Summary Commodity Specialist

Grains and Softs

Energy: Brent Crude Oil (ICE)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Energy: Brent Crude Oil (ICE)

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Energy: Brent Crude Oil (ICE)

Daily Chart Aug-12:

Grains and Softs

Energy: Light Crude Oil (NYMEX)

Daily Chart Aug-12:

Grains and Softs

Energy: Natural Gas (NYMEX)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Energy: Natural Gas (NYMEX)

Daily Chart Jul-12:

Grains and Softs

Energy: Heating Oil (NYMEX)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Energy: Heating Oil (NYMEX)

Daily Chart Jul-12:

Grains and Softs

Metals: Gold (COMEX)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Metals: Gold (COMEX)

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Metals: Gold (COMEX)

Daily Chart Aug-12:

We maintain a bear stance here.

Grains and Softs

Metals: Silver (COMEX)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Metals: Silver (COMEX)

Daily Chart Jul-12:

We maintain a bear stance here.

Grains and Softs

Metals: High Grade Copper (COMEX)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Weekly Chart Continuation:

Metals: High Grade Copper (COMEX)

Daily Chart Jul-12:

We maintain a bear stance for now.

Grains and Softs

Grains and Softs

Grains and Softs: Soybeans (CBOT)

Monthly Chart Continuation:

Grains and Softs

Grains and Softs: Soybeans (CBOT)

Weekly Chart Continuation: