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Solar Cell Supply Chain

Solar Cell Supply Chain

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07/12/2012

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Bhavin
 
Shah
 
(852)
 
2800-8538
 
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
 
Gokul
 
Hariharan
 AC
 
Shoji
 
Sato
 
Carrie
 
Liu
 
Solar
 
cell
 
Asia
 
Pacific
 
Equity
 
Research
 
07
 
January
 
2008
 
Solar 
 
cell
 
supply
 
chain
 
Solar
 
power
 
and
 
solar
 
cell
 
Solar
 
cell
 
is
 
a
 
semiconductor
 
device,
 
made
 
from
 
polysilicon,
 
which
 
generates
 
electricity
 
by
 
converting
 
the
 
photons
 
from
 
the
 
sun.
 
Solar
 
power,
 
the
 
electricity
 
produced
 
by
 
solar
 
cell,
 
has
 
received
 
a
 
lot
 
of 
 
attention
 
recently
 
in
 
the
 
wake
 
of 
 
growing
 
environmental
 
concerns.
 
Solar
 
power
 
is
 
generated
 
using
 
the
 
sun’s
 
energy
 — 
it
 
is
 
clean,
 
renewable
 
and
 
environment
 
friendly.
 
Based
 
on
 
a
 
market
 
survey
 
done
 
by
 
the
 
Photon
 
International,
 
the
 
PV
 
industry
 
worldwide
 
produced
 
2,536MW
 
of 
 
energy
 
in
 
2006,
 
implying
 
40%
 
Y/Y
 
growth.
 
We
 
believe
 
global
 
solar
 
cell
 
production
 
will
 
continue
 
to
 
grow
 
at
 
25%
 
in
 
the
 
next
 
5-10
 
years
 
due
 
to
 
strong
 
support
 
in
 
the
 
form
 
of 
 
government
 
subsidies.
 
Extrapolation
 
of 
 
the
 
government’s
 
targets
 
for
 
solar
 
installations
 
indicates
 
a
 
CAGR
 
of 
 
28%
 
from
 
2005
 
to
 
2010
 
(Figure
 
122).
 
Currently,
 
Germany,
 
Japan
 
and
 
the
 
US
 
(mainly
 
California)
 
are
 
the
 
key
 
proponents
 
of 
 
solar
 
energy.
 
New
 
initiatives
 
are
 
starting
 
to
 
pick 
 
up
 
in
 
China,
 
Southern
 
European
 
countries
 
and
 
rest
 
of 
 
the
 
US.
 
Figure
 
122:
 
Global
 
solar 
 
cell
 
production
 
MWp
 
Source:
 
www.motech.com.tw.
 
7,000
 
6,000
 
5,000
 
CAGR:
 
28%
 
4,279
 
5,776
 
6,000
 
4,000
 
3,170
 
3,000
 
2,000
 
1,000
 
CAGR:
 
43%
 
202
 
287
 
401
 
560
 
750
 
1,256
 
1,815
 
2,536
 
0
 
1999
 
2000
 
2001
 
2002
 
2003
 
2004
 
2005
 
2006
 
2007E
 
2008E
 
2009E
 
2010E
 
Solar 
 
cell
 
production
 
Source:
 
Photon
 
International,
 
JPMorgan
 
estimates.
 
Table
 
138:
 
Features
 
of 
 
solar 
 
cell
 
systems
 
·
 
Enormous
 
amount,
 
non
 
depletion,
 
clean.
 
Use
 
solar 
 
energy
 
Directly
 
convert
 
sunlight
 
into
 
electricity
 
Distributed
 
system
 
·
 
Ubiquitous,
 
use
 
waste
 
energy.
 
·
 
Low
 
density,
 
depends
 
on
 
meteorological
 
characteristics,
 
no
 
function
 
of 
 
storage.
 
·
 
Generate
 
from
 
scattered
 
sunlight
 
even
 
if 
 
it's
 
a
 
cloudy
 
and
 
rainy
 
day.
 
·
 
Easy
 
structure,
 
no
 
moving
 
part,
 
easy
 
to
 
use,
 
easy
 
to
 
be
 
unmanned.
 
·
 
Change
 
capacity
 
by
 
module
 
units.
 
·
 
Lightweight
 
and
 
can
 
be
 
used
 
as
 
roof,
 
short
 
construction
 
time.
 
·
 
Less
 
energy
 
for 
 
production,
 
recover 
 
in
 
2-3
 
years.
 
·
 
Meet
 
demand
 
in
 
location
 
where
 
power 
 
is
 
generated,
 
electric
 
transmission
 
facility
 
not
 
required.
 
·
 
Meet
 
daytime
 
energy
 
needs,
 
reduction
 
of 
 
load
 
power.
 
·
 
Diversity
 
of 
 
power 
 
supply,
 
contributes
 
to
 
a
 
stable
 
supply.
 
Source:
 
JPMorgan
 
based
 
on
 
NEDO.
 
Environmental
 
value
 
of
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
When
 
generating
 
electricity,
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
are
 
clean
 
systems
 
that
 
do
 
not
 
require
 
fuel,
 
but
 
a
 
large
 
volume
 
of 
 
energy
 
is
 
required
 
in
 
their
 
manufacturing
 
process.
 
If 
 
a
 
solar
 
cell
 
system
 
requires
 
more
 
energy
 
for
 
its
 
manufacture
 
than
 
it
 
can
 
generate
 
during
 
its
 
lifespan,
 
then
 
it
 
is
 
not
 
an
 
efficient
 
form
 
of 
 
electricity
 
generation.
 
If 
 
the
 
volume
 
of 
 
249
 
 
     c     o     a      l   -      f      i     r     e      d      t      h     e     r     m     a      l
 
     o      i      l   -      f      i     r     e      d      t      h     e     r     m     a      l
 
     p     o     w     e     r      L      N      G   -      f      i     r     e      d      t      h     e     r     m     a      l
 
      L      N      G   -      f      i     r     e      d      t      h     e     r     m     a      l
 
     p     o     w     e     r      (     c     o     m      b      i     n     e      d      )     s     o      l     a     r     p     o     w     e     r     w      i     n      d     p     o     w     e     r     n     u     c      l     e     a     r     p     o     w     e     r     g     e     o      t      h     e     r     m     a      l     p     o     w     e     r     s     m     a      l      l   -     a     n      d   -     m     e      d      i     u     m   -     s      i     z     e      d     w     a      t     e     r     p     o     w     e     r     p     o     w     e     r     p     o     w     e     r
 
Bhavin
 
Shah
 
(852)
 
2800-8538
 
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
 
Asia
 
Pacific
 
Equity
 
Research
 
07
 
January
 
2008
 
CO
2
 
emissions
 
resulting
 
from
 
a
 
solar
 
cell
 
system’s
 
manufacture
 
exceeds
 
the
 
reduction
 
of 
 
emissions
 
it
 
achieves
 
via
 
electricity
 
generation,
 
moreover,
 
then
 
it
 
is
 
environmentally
 
harmful
 
in
 
terms
 
of 
 
global
 
warming.
 
The
 
lifespan
 
energy
 
profitability
 
and
 
overall
 
CO
2
 
emissions
 
are
 
measured
 
in
 
energy
 
payback 
 
time
 
(EPT)
 
and
 
lifetime
 
CO
2
 
emission
 
units.
 
EPT
 
is
 
a
 
measure
 
of 
 
how
 
many
 
years
 
of 
 
operation
 
is
 
required
 
to
 
generate
 
the
 
energy
 
used
 
in
 
the
 
manufacturing
 
stage,
 
and
 
if 
 
this
 
value
 
is
 
smaller
 
than
 
the
 
lifespan
 
of 
 
the
 
system
 
it
 
is
 
profitable
 
in
 
terms
 
of 
 
energy.
 
Lifetime
 
CO
2
 
emission
 
units
 
are
 
a
 
measure
 
of 
 
CO2
 
emissions
 
per
 
1kWh
 
of 
 
electricity
 
generation
 
over
 
the
 
entire
 
lifespan
 
of 
 
the
 
system,
 
and
 
the
 
CO
2
 
emission
 
efficiency
 
of 
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
can
 
be
 
compared
 
with
 
other
 
forms
 
of 
 
electricity
 
generation
 
using
 
this
 
value.
 
We
 
estimate
 
that
 
the
 
EPT
 
for
 
household
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
is
 
approximately
 
1
 – 
1.5
 
years
 
in
 
Japan
 
and
 
1
 – 
3
 
years
 
in
 
Europe,
 
which
 
are
 
both
 
very
 
low
 
values
 
compared
 
to
 
the
 
expected
 
lifespan
 
for
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
of 
 
20
 
years.
 
Stated
 
differently,
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
can
 
recoup
 
the
 
energy
 
required
 
for
 
their
 
manufacture
 
in
 
one
 
to
 
three
 
years
 
after
 
their
 
installation,
 
and
 
thereafter
 
they
 
add
 
value
 
by
 
becoming
 
net
 
energy
 
producers
 
and
 
enabling
 
lower
 
consumption
 
of 
 
fossil
 
fuels.
 
We
 
estimate
 
that
 
household
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
result
 
in
 
53g
 
of 
 
greenhouse
 
gas
 
emissions
 
(CO
2
 
equivalent)
 
per
 
1kWh
 
of 
 
electricity
 
generation,
 
with
 
the
 
majority
 
of 
 
this
 
produced
 
during
 
their
 
manufacture.
 
We
 
estimate
 
that
 
commercial
 
power
 
sources
 
result
 
in
 
360
 – 
378g
 
of 
 
greenhouse
 
gas
 
emissions
 
(CO
2
 
equivalent)
 
per
 
1kWh,
 
and
 
that
 
thermal
 
electricity
 
generation
 
on
 
average
 
results
 
in
 
690g,
 
which
 
is
 
more
 
than
 
10x
 
the
 
volume
 
of 
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems.
 
We
 
thus
 
estimate
 
that
 
the
 
CO
2
 
emission
 
reduction
 
impact
 
of 
 
solar
 
cell
 
systems
 
is
 
307
 – 
637g
 
per
 
1kWh
 
of 
 
electricity
 
generation.
 
Figure
 
123:
 
Energy
 
production
 
and
 
CO
2
 
emissions
 
CO
2
 
emissions/kWh
 
1,000
 
800
 
600
 
400
 
g-CO
2
/kWh
 
net
 
output
 
887
 
704
 
478
 
408
 
plant
 
and
 
operation
 
fuel
 
combustion
 
to
 
generate
 
pow
 
er 
 
200
 
0
 
88
 
38
 
130
 
111
 
53
 
29
 
22
 
15
 
11
 
Source:
 
Sangyo-times
.
 
Government
 
incentive
 
for
 
solar
 
power
 
The
 
Kyoto
 
protocol,
 
established
 
in
 
1997,
 
sets
 
binding
 
greenhouse
 
gas
 
emission
 
targets
 
for
 
countries
 
that
 
sign
 
and
 
ratify
 
the
 
agreement.
 
The
 
protocol
 
came
 
into
 
force
 
in
 
February
 
2005.
 
Country
 
signatories
 
to
 
the
 
protocol
 
have
 
agreed
 
to
 
reduce
 
their
 
anthropogenic
 
emissions
 
of 
 
greenhouse
 
gases
 
(CO2,
 
CH4,
 
N2O,
 
HFCs,
 
PFCs,
 
and
 
SF6)
 
by
 
at
 
least
 
5%
 
below
 
their
 
1990
 
levels,
 
between
 
the
 
commitment
 
period
 
of 
 
2008
 
and
 
2012.
 
Nevertheless,
 
rising
 
environmental
 
concerns
 
have
 
boosted
 
the
 
global
 
demand
 
for
 
renewable
 
energy,
 
due
 
to
 
government
 
subsidies.
 
250
 
 
Germany
 
2000
 
effective
 
Spain
 
1998
 
effective
 
Incentives
 
will
 
decrease
 
by
 
5%
 
annually
 
20years
 
(6.5%
 
for 
 
other 
 
than
 
house).
 
0.05
 
euro
 
will
 
be
 
added
 
when
 
set
 
in
 
front
 
of 
 
the
 
building.
 
Portugal
 
2001
 
effective
 
France
 
2002
 
effective
 
Bhavin
 
Shah
 
(852)
 
2800-8538
 
bhavin.a.shah@jpmorgan.com
 
Asia
 
Pacific
 
Equity
 
Research
 
07
 
January
 
2008
 
According
 
to
 
the
 
European
 
Commission’s
 
―PV
 
Status
 
Report
 
2006‖,
 
the
 
countries
 
that
 
have
 
made
 
key
 
changes
 
in
 
government
 
policies
 
for
 
solar
 
energy
 
are:
 
Germany:
 
The
 
German
 
feed-in
 
law
 
was
 
introduced
 
in
 
1999
 
and
 
renewed
 
in
 
August
 
2004,
 
resulting
 
in
 
a
 
dramatic
 
increase
 
in
 
PV
 
installations.
 
In
 
its
 
latest
 
figures,
 
the
 
German
 
Solar
 
Industry
 
Association
 
reported
 
systems
 
with
 
total
 
of 
 
600MW
 
installed
 
capacity
 
in
 
2005.
 
Other
 
EU
 
countries:
 
Italy
 
has
 
passed
 
new
 
feed-in
 
laws
 
in
 
2005.
 
According
 
to
 
the
 
―PV
 
status
 
report
 
2006‖,
 
50MW
 
to
 
80MW
 
capacity
 
will
 
be
 
installed
 
in
 
2006
 
with
 
an
 
upper
 
cap
 
of 
 
500MW
 
for
 
2012.
 
France
 
introduced
 
its
 
feed-in
 
laws
 
in
 
2006.
 
Spain’s
 
current
 
cap
 
is
 
150MW,
 
which
 
is
 
likely
 
to
 
be
 
revised
 
up.
 
Table
 
139:
 
Feed-in
 
tariff 
 
system
 
in
 
each
 
country
 
Effective
 
date
 
Feed-in
 
tariffs
 
(2007)
 
Duration
 
Remarks
 
2004
 
revised
 
2004
 
revised
 
2005
 
revised
 
~30KW:
 
0.492€/KWh
 
30KW~100KW:
 
0.468€/KWh
 
100KW~:
 
0.463€/KWh
 
Except
 
house:
 
0.380€/KWh
 
~100KW:
 
0.414€/KWh
 
~5KW:
 
0.444€/KWh
 
paid.
 
total
 
electricity
 
reaches
 
21
 
GWh.
 
1KW~20KW:
 
0.423€/KWh
 
Incentives
 
will
 
decrease
 
by
 
5%
 
annually.
 
Italy
 
2005
 
effective
 
20KW~50KW:
 
0.437€/KWh
 
50KW~1000KW:
 
0.467€/KWh
 
20years
 
Incentives
 
are
 
incremented
 
by
 
10%
 
for 
 
installed
 
in
 
new
 
or 
 
restored
 
buildings.
 
2006
 
revised
 
Corsica
 
and
 
overseas:
 
0.40€/KWh
 
in
 
new
 
or 
 
restored
 
buildings.
 
Incentive
 
system
 
is
 
different
 
between
 
less
 
For 
 
house
 
or 
 
Business:
 
0.03~0.39$/KWh
 
than
 
100KWh
 
and
 
more
 
than
 
100KWh
 
and
 
U.S.A
 
(California)
 
2007
 
effective
 
Tax-free:
 
0.1~0.5$/KWh
 
(more
 
than
 
100KWh)
 
will
 
be
 
united
 
in
 
2010.
 
Incentives
 
depend
 
on
 
total
 
electricity
 
(10
 
steps)
 
and
 
will
 
decrease
 
by
 
10%
 
annually.
 
Source:
 
JPMorgan
 
views
 
based
 
on
 
PV 
 
news
.
 
China
:
 
The
 
Standing
 
Committee
 
of 
 
the
 
National
 
People’s
 
Congress
 
of 
 
China
 
endorsed
 
the
 
Renewable
 
Energy
 
Law
 
on
 
28
 
February
 
2005,
 
which
 
came
 
into
 
effect
 
on
 
January
 
1,
 
2006.
 
The
 
Chinese
 
government
 
targets
 
renewable
 
energy
 
to
 
contribute
 
to
 
the
 
country’s
 
gross
 
energy
 
consumption
 
at
 
10%
 
by
 
2010
 
and
 
17%
 
by
 
2020
 — 
a
 
significant
 
increase
 
from
 
the
 
current
 
1%.
 
The
 
2010
 
plan
 
includes
 
the
 
installation
 
of 
 
450MW
 
photovoltaic
 
systems.
 
Also,
 
the
 
concept
 
of 
 
Green
 
Olympics
 
for
 
Olympic
 
Summer
 
Games
 
in
 
Beijing
 
in
 
2008
 
will
 
be
 
a
 
strong
 
catalyst.
 
US
:
 
The
 
2005
 
Energy
 
Bill,
 
aimed
 
at
 
increasing
 
the
 
demand
 
for
 
photovoltaics,
 
was
 
passed
 
by
 
the
 
Senate
 
on
 
July
 
29,
 
2005
 
and
 
was
 
signed
 
by
 
President
 
Bush
 
on
 
August
 
8,
 
2005.
 
The
 
main
 
support
 
mechanisms
 
of 
 
the
 
bill
 
are:
 
(1)
 
increase
 
in
 
the
 
permanent
 
10%
 
business
 
energy
 
credit
 
for
 
solar
 
power
 
to
 
30%
 
for
 
a
 
two-year
 
period.
 
The
 
credit
 
reverts
 
to
 
the
 
permanent
 
10%
 
level
 
after
 
two
 
years.
 
(2)
 
Establishment
 
of 
 
a
 
30%
 
residential
 
energy
 
credit
 
for
 
solar
 
for
 
two
 
years.
 
For
 
residential
 
systems,
 
the
 
tax
 
credit
 
is
 
capped
 
at
 
US$2,000.
 
In
 
addition,
 
California
 
has
 
the
 
―Million
 
Roof 
 
Initiative‖
 
(SB1)
 
for
 
solar
 
energy.
 
The
 
California
 
Solar
 
Initiative
 
(CSI)
 
adopted
 
SB1
 
in
 
January
 
2006.
 
It
 
secured
 
a
 
US$3.35
 
billion
 
long-term
 
solar
 
rebate
 
plan
 
for
 
California
 
to
 
deploy
 
3,000MW
 
of 
 
solar
 
power
 
systems
 
on
 
residential,
 
commercial
 
and
 
government
 
buildings
 
throughout
 
the
 
state.
 
In
 
June
 
2006,
 
SB1
 
was
 
passed
 
by
 
the
 
California
 
Assembly.
 
251
 

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