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Morning Report
13.07.2012
 
NOK & 3m NIBOR
2.202.302.402.5012-Jul22-Jun4-Jun7.307.407.507.607.70
3m ra.EURNOK
 
SEK & 3m STIBOR
2.002.2012-Jul22-Jun4-Jun8.58.78.99.1
3m ra.EURSEK
 
Headquarters
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Equity 22 94 89 40Fixed Income 22 01 78 20
Regional sales (+47)Bergen
56 13 27 20
 Bodø
75 52 9910
Fredrikstad
69 39 41 50
Hamar
62 54 14 82
Haugesund
52 72 09 06
Lillehammer
61 24 79 56
Kristiansand
38 07 28 62
Oslo
22 01 76 50
 Stavanger
51 84 04 30
Tromsø
77 62 96 80
Trondheim
73 58 74 89
Tønsberg
33 01 73 80
 Ålesund
70 11 69 85
Research Regional Sales (+47)
Eirik Larsen 22 01 76 55
Research FX/IR (+47)
Øystein Dørum 22 01 76 56Kjersti Haugland 22 01 78 03Ole André Kjennerud 22 01 78 24Knut A. Magnussen 22 01 76 63Camilla Viland 22 01 77 41Magne Østnor 22 01 76 57Kyrre Aamdal 22 01 76 67
Credit Research (+47)
Ole Einar Stokstad 22 01 78 37Mikael L. Gjerding 22 01 77 62Rolv Kristian Heitmann 22 01 76 77Thomas Larsen 22 01 77 36Knut Olav Rønningen 22 01 78 15
Chinese growth cools
Growth in China is falling, but the government's actions seem to be working. Nonetheless, weexpect further easing to come. Moody's cuts ratings on Italy to two notches above speculative.Growth in China fell to its lowest in three years in the second quarter.
Compared with the secondquarter of last year, GDP rose by 7.6%, while the quarterly growth was 1.8%. This was as expected inthe market. Industrial production in June rose 9.5% y/y, and was slightly lower than expectations of 9.8%.But both investment and retail trades were better than expected in June, and rose respectively. 20.4%(expected 20.1%) and 13.7% (expected 13.5%). So while growth slowed from 8.1% in the first quarter to7.6% in the second quarter, there are signs suggesting the slowdown of the growth is coming to a halt.The quarterly growth rose from 1.6% in the first quarter to 1.8% in the second quarter, and good figuresfor investment and retail sales suggests that the government's measures to promote growth is starting towork.
Nonetheless, we expect further easing of policy in the future.The weekly U.S. employment figures for initial claims were better than expected.
Initial claims fellfrom 376' to 350' this week. It is the lowest level since early 2008, and may give the impression of animprovement in the U.S. labor market. But because the automotive industry typically lay down the work atthis time of year, and did not do it last year because of delivery problems from Japan in the spring, theseasonal adjustment of the figures have been difficult. We therefore have to wait to see if this is a sign ofan improvement.
Industrial production in the euro area was better than expected in May
, and rose 0.6% from April. Itwas anticipated zero growth. The decline from March to April was revised down from -0.8% to -1.1%.Despite a good May number, the tendency is weak, and the sector is likely to contribute negatively togrowth in Q2.
Inflation in Sweden remains low.
From May to June, consumer prices rose by 1.0%, unchanged fromthe previous month and just as expected. Core inflation rose by 0.9%. Thus, inflation is as the centralbank expected in June, and still below target.
Moody's cuts the rating on Italy from A3 to Baa2
, and warns that there could be further downgrades.Thus, Moody's rating of Italy is just two notches above junk. The timing is bad for Italy, today Italyauctions 4-6 billion euros of bonds.
Interest rates continue to fall.
In the United States contributed a good demand in the auction of 30-yeargovernment bond to interest rates. The
euro
continues to weaken, and yesterday reached its lowest levelagainst the dollar in two years (1.2165).
Japanese yen
strengthened yesterday after the BOJ limitedthemselves to changing the existing measures only. After large moves in
EURSEK
recently, yesterdaywas more quite.
Norwegian kroner
on the other hand strengthened in the afternoon, both against theeuro, sterling and Swedish krona. Although the krone is now approaching the levels of March against theeuro when Norges Bank decided to cut interest rates, the import-weighted exchange rate I-44, whichNorges Bank looks at when setting interest rates, are roughly in line with what the central bank expectedin the Monetary Policy Report in June. We must therefore see a further strengthening before it may havean impact on interest rates. Both
European and U.S. stock markets
 
fell
yesterday on weaker sentimentand several weak profit warnings.
Asian stock markets rose
, however, after the GDP figures fromChina were better than feared. The
oil price fell slightly in advance of the Chinese GDP figures onfear of a disappointing number, but picked up again and is
virtually unchanged since yesterdaymorning.
On the agenda today,
U.S. producer prices is expected unchanged from May to June. University ofMichigan sentiment index is expected to marginally up in July. Italy will auction 4-6 billion in governmentbonds today, and after the downgrade last night markets will probably watch it closely.
magne.ostnor@dnb.no
Yesterday’s key economic events (GMT)As ofUnitPrior PollActual07:30 Sweden CPI Jun y/y % 1.0 1.01.009:00 EMU Industrial production May m/m % -0.8 0.00.602:00 China GDP Q2 y/y % 8.1 7.67.6Today’s key economic events (GMT)As of Unit Prior Poll DNB12:30 USA PPI Jun m/m % 0.2 0.213:55 USA University of Michigan Jul Index 73.2 73.4
 
 
Morning Report
13.07.2012
 
Oil spot & NOK TWI
9092949612-Jul22-Jun4-Jun859095100105
NOK TWI ra.$/b
 
EUR vs GBP & CHF
0.780.790.800.810.8212-Jul22-Jun4-Jun1.201.201.201.201.20
GBP r.aCHF
 
EURSEK & OMXS
35040045050012-Jul22-Jun4-Jun8.58.78.99.1
OMXS ra.
 
Gov. Bonds, 10y
1.502.002.503.0012-Jul22-Jun4-Jun1.001.251.501.75
NOK, ra.SEK
 
JPY and DowJones
7577798112-Jul22-Jun4-Jun12.012.513.0
USDJPY ra.DowJones, 1000
 
USD and gold
1.201.221.241.261.2812-Jul22-Jun4-Jun1520157016201670
EURUSD ra.Gold
 
FXPriorLast%In 1 m...3 m...6 m...12 mFXUSD%USDJPY79.3179.310.0%80848585AUD1.01670.30%EURUSD1.2201.2200.0%1.231.301.351.40CAD1.0185-0.05%EURGBP0.7910.791-0.1%0.790.830.850.87CHF0.9843-0.07%EURCHF1.2011.2010.0%1.201.201.201.30CZK20.82-0.10%EURNOK7.4547.446-0.1%7.607.507.507.60DKK6.0976-0.03%EURSEK8.5788.571-0.1%8.809.009.009.00GBP1.54320.03%EURDKK7.4377.4380.0%7.457.457.457.45HKD7.7565-0.02%USDNOK6.1106.103-0.1%6.185.775.565.43ISK129.22-0.03%JPYNOK7.7087.699-0.1%7.726.876.546.39KWD0.28220.00%SEKNOK0.8690.8690.0%0.860.830.830.84LTL2.8302-0.05%GBPNOK9.4259.4230.0%9.69.08.88.7LVL0.5710-0.05%USDSEK7.0357.026-0.1%7.156.926.676.43NZD0.79180.23%JPYSEK8.8808.862-0.2%5.725.825.675.46PLN3.4501-0.12%NOKSEK1.1521.1520.0%1.161.201.201.18SGD1.27010.04%GBPSEK10.84210.8460.0%11.1410.8410.5910.34RUB32.6225-0.38%
SPOT RATES AND FORECASTS
PriorLastPriorLastPriorLastPriorLast1m1.931.901.891.880.160.150.250.253m2.252.232.122.100.400.380.460.466m2.502.482.372.360.710.690.730.7312m 2.652.632.482.470.890.870.910.913y2.422.421.711.710.800.800.590.595y2.692.701.841.841.101.090.880.897y2.962.961.992.001.431.421.241.2210y3.203.212.152.151.781.771.651.62PriorLastPriorLastPriorLastPriorLast10yA No Data102.05120.26120.32104.65104.65102.48438102.5010y yield1.811.791.301.291.251.251.481.48vs bund0.560.540.050.040.230.233m nibor10y swap3m stibor10y swap3m euribor10y swap3m libor10y swapIn 3m2.403.502.102.500.502.250.502.25… 6m2.503.752.052.750.502.750.502.50… 12m2.854.252.203.000.503.250.503.00
SWAP AND MONEYMARKET RATESGOVERNMENT BONDSINTEREST RATE FORECASTS
NIBORSTIBOREURIBORUSD LIBORNORWAYSWEDENGERMANYUSNORWAYSWEDENGERMANYUS
FRA NOK3mPriorchgTWIToday%Stock ex.Today%SEP2.132.14-0.01NOK93.110.01- Dow Jones12,573.3-0.2%DEC1.981.99-0.01SEK114.240.15- Nasdaq2,866.2-0.8%MAR1.971.970.00EUR97.730.05- FTSE1005,608.3-1.0%JUN2.001.990.01USD83.630.04Eurostoxx502,228.0-0.8%FRA SEK3mPriorchgGBP83.50-Dax6,419.4-0.5% SEP1.901.900.00Comm.TodayLastNikkei2258,724.10.0% DEC1.671.650.02Brent spot99.999.8Oslo407.35-1.1%MAR1.571.550.03Brent 1m101.0101.1Stockholm477.48-1.2%JUN1.531.520.00Spot gold 0.01556.3Copenhagen599.33-0.3%
MISCELLANEOUS
Sources to all tables and graphics: Reuters and DNB Markets
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