Tajikistan Energy Opportunities: Ambassador Shirinov Discusses Energy Issues

On May 26, 2010, His Excellency Abdujabbor Shirinov, Ambassador of the Republicof Tajikistan to the United States, granted an interview with a large focus on energyissues and on how they are affecting his country. Ambassador Shirinov spoke openlyabout the energy and water shortages impacting the region, joint collaborationbetween Tajikistan and Afghanistan to address its needs such as energy, theconstruction of a large hydro-

power dam seen as key to Tajikistan’s energy security,

and oil and gas exploration where preliminary assessments tend to show anuntapped potential that could lead Tajikistan to energy independence.Little is known about Tajikistan, a Central Asia country bordered by Afghanistan tothe South, China to the West, Kyrgyzstan to the North and Uzbekistan to the East.However, Tajikistan could play an important role in helping stabilize Afghanistan, acountry with which is shares a 1,206 km --long border and where the Tajiks are thesecond largest ethnic group after the Pashtuns. Tajikistan, could also become animportant strategic route for the transit of goods as it once was during the Silk Roadtimes, as well as for the transit of energy (oil & gas pipelines and electricity highpower lines), though the free flow of people and goods remains a challenge inCentral Asia, both for political and geographical reasons.Just like its neighbor Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan is water-rich but energy-poor, unlikeKazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. With 93% of its territory composed of mountains, Tajikistan has a huge hydropower potential of more than 527 billionkilowatt-hours of electricity per year but present day production stands at only 16.5billion kilowatt-hours.

Your Excellency, what are, in your opinion, the top three energy issuesaffecting Tajikistan and Central Asia in general?

There are three top issues strictly related to energy that pose big challenges forTajikistan and Central Asia as a whole: 1. Energy Exchange Issue; 2. Water Usageand Distribution Issue; and 3. Mutual Understanding and Cooperation Issue. Allthree issues are interconnected and of equal importance. We cannot put them in aspecific order. Let me elaborate on each one.Energy Exchange Issue

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As a whole Central Asia cannot be called energy deficient.The region is rich in both fossil and renewable sources of energy that can meet theneeds of the economy not only in the region, but also in other countries beyondCentral Asia. One of the regional characteristics is that natural resources areunevenly distributed throughout Central Asia: some countries like Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are blessed with well developed fossil sources of energy and others like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan don

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t have these sources of energy,but have a large potential with hydro-energy resources, which can be the source of

2very cheap, ecologically clean and renewable energy. Yet, unfortunately, theseresources as you rightly mentioned are under-utilized. Our country takes the 8thplace for its waterpower resources in the world. The country uses only 16-17 billionkilowatt/hr (less than 5%) from a total of 527 billion kilowatt/hr that potentiallycould be used. The annual needs of Tajikistan for electricity comes to 22 - 24 billionkilowatt/hr. The deficit of electricity, mainly in the winter period, reaches 4 -5billion kilowatt/hr. Under the Soviet period, the energy surplus of upstreamcountries used to be given to the integrated energy system of Central Asia in thesummer period and given back in the winter period. The compensation systemdealing with the underproduction of electricity in autumn and winter periods - that used to cover losses caused by land sinking and land flood in upstream countriesthrough equivalent heat and energy supplies from downstream countries - used tobe the major principle of success of the system. Such compensation was reasonableand fair and it allowed proper energy supply for Tajikistan in the winter period aswell as uninterrupted water supply for downstream countries in the summerperiod.Unfortunately, the economic ties including the previously mentioned mutuallybeneficial compensation system broke down after the collapse of the USSR and thesituation on water and power settlements in the region has progressivelydeteriorated. Thus, the failure of the energy system that had been operating overmany years mainly caused the current regional water and power contradictions.Tajikistan faces critical electricity shortage that limits the economic development of all sectors of the economy, public health, education, food supply, job creation andpoverty reduction at large. Frequent natural disasters (winter frost, mudflows,floods, landslides, droughts and others) create additional problems for the economyand the people of the country.2. Water Usage and Distribution Issue - Extensive irrigation in Central Asia haveresulted in large ecological problems such as the drying of the Aral Sea, leading to aneconomic catastrophe. In the 1950s, 2.6 million hectares of land were irrigated inthe region. At the beginning of this century the area of the irrigated land reached 9

million hectares! Moreover the lion’s share of irrigated land is used fo

r the growingof water thirsty crops like cotton and rice. These circumstances are reflected in thewater balance with now very little water flowing to the Aral Sea. Another connectedissue is the sharp demographic increase in the region. We should also mention theclimate change and the worldwide melting of snowcaps and of glaciers that is alsoaffecting Tajikistan, which is a mountainous country.I want to share with you some data about water balance of Central Asia. Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan are located in the water flow generation of the Sirdaryaand Amudarya

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the two largest regional rivers. Tajikistan is the richest regionalcountry by its water resources and it accumulates about 64 km

of total 115 km

water flow of the Aral Sea Basin and accumulates approximately 55.4% of totalwater flow of the Aral Sea Basin while Kyrgyzstan accumulates 25.3%, Uzbekistan -

37.6%, Kazakhstan - 3.9% and Turkmenistan - 2.4% correspondingly. Othercountries: Afghanistan, China and Pakistan all get out 5.4% of the total water flow.In accordance with quotas from the Soviet period, Uzbekistan consumes 50.5%,Kazakhstan 42%, Tajikistan 7% and Kyrgyzstan 0.5% of total Sirdarya River waterflow as for the Amudarya River water flow, Uzbekistan consumes 42.2%,Turkmenistan 42.3%, Tajikistan 15.2% and Kyrgyzstan 0.3% of total water flow.According to the Information and Research Centre of the InterstateCoordination Hydroeconomic Commission (IRC ICHC) the mean value of the waterunit requirement in the world is 700-m3/per man/year while by2003 this figure for Kazakhstan amounted to1943 m

and correspondingly forKyrgyzstan

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1371 m

, Tajikistan

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1843 m

, Turkmenistan - 4044 m

andUzbekistan - 2594 m

/per man/year.Water resource management in the region is regulated by a number of Soviet andpost-Soviet documents. The Alma-Ata Agreement on cooperation on joint management and protection of water resources (1992) and the Nukus Declarationon the problems of sustainable development of the Aral Sea Basin (1995) are amongthe vital ones.

Being guided by “the Agreement between the Republic of

Kazakhstan,the Republic of Kyrgyzstan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, the Republic of Tajikistanand Turkmenistan on the cooperation for the joint management and protection of

water resources” (February 18, 1992,

Almaty), having respect for the establishedstructure and principles of water resource sharing, being based on active normativedocuments the parties established on parity basis the Interstate Commission forWater Coordination (ICWC) on the regulation, rational management and protection

of water resources of interstate sources as well as “Sirdarya”

and “Amudarya” Basin

Water Management Associations (BWA).At a later date, on March 17, 1998 the Agreement between the Governments of theRepublic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Kyrgyzstan and the Republic of Uzbekistan

“On water resource management in

Sirdarya River Basin” established the procedure

for the management of water and power resources in Sirdarya River Basin that contributed to the ballasting of hydroeconomic and energy situation in Central Asia.At the same time the Soviet Water-resources assessments still play the role of recognized and agreed rules and procedures of joint water resource management inthe Aral Sea Basin.The historical records of the aforementioned institutions suggest that with therational approach being provided within these institutions (ICWC, BWA) theregional countries are able to overcome any problems in water management in theAral Sea Basin. It is important that these institutions are ready to contribute tostrengthening mutual trust among Central Asian countries.3. Mutual Understanding and Cooperation Issue

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Tajikistan is confronted with thechallenging problem of energy security, which could be resolved through theimplementation of hydroenergy projects. Recently, the intentions of the Republic of