VERBAL PROBABILITY EXPRESSIONS IN NATIONALINTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSISOF TRENDS FROM THE FIFTIES THROUGH POST 9/11RACHEL F. KESSELMAN

A ThesisSubmitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst CollegeIn Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCEINAPPLIED INTELLIGENCEDEPARTMENT OF INTELLIGENCE STUDIESMERCYHURST COLLEGEERIE, PENNSLYVANIA

MAY 2008DEPARTMENT OF INTELLIGENCE STUDIESMERCYHURST COLLEGEERIE, PENNSLYVANIA

VERBAL PROBABILITY EXPRESSIONS IN NATIONAL INTELLIGENCEESTIMATES: A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF TRENDS FROM THEFIFTIES THROUGH POST 9/11

A ThesisSubmitted to the Faculty of Mercyhurst CollegeIn Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCEINAPPLIED INTELLIGENCESubmitted By:

RACHEL F. KESSELMANCertificate of Approval:___________________________________

Kristan J. WheatonAssistant Professor Department of Intelligence Studies

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William WelchAssistant Professor Department of Intelligence Studies

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Barbara A. BehanVice PresidentOffice of Academic AffairsMay 2008