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Kristan J. Wheaton's Documents
Human Processes in Intelligence Analysis: Phase 1 Overview
DEC 1979 Government research report. A project was undertaken to construct a general descriptive model of the cognitive activities (mental processes) underlying the activities of Intelligence analysis. The approach used to develop the cognitive model combined available Information on the way In which intelligence analysis Is performed In actual work settings with available research findings In cognitive psychology.
Category:Government DocsReads:1,264Uploaded:10 / 22 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionCognitive Processes In Intelligence Analysis: A Descriptive Model And Review Of The Literature
DEC 1979 government report. This report presents the background research literature used in the construction of a descriptive model of cognitive activities underlying the activities of Intelligence analysis. The approach used to develop the cognitive model combined available Information on the way in which Intelligence analysis is performed In actual work settings with available research findings In cognitive psychology.
Category:Government DocsReads:1,447Uploaded:10 / 22 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionNational Security Intelligence Professional Education: A Map of U.S. Civilian University Programs and Competencies
This study explores national security intelligence education within U.S. civilian universities. Intelligence education is of interest to higher education institutions, as signaled by the rapid increase of “intelligence studies” programs across the U.S. since September 11, 2001. That presumably well-educated analysts could fail to anticipate and avert the attacks, and fail again in confirming weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, awakened concern in the intelligence and higher education communities that somehow America’s educational process had failed to prepare intelligence officers to address such issues effectively. The research addressed whether the burgeoning numbers of intelligence education programs are appropriately augmenting the existing variety of liberal arts programs in U.S. civilian colleges and universities in educating potential future national-level government intelligence professionals. In qualitative research relying on a grounded theory approach, the researcher examined the educational experience of recent hires in the Intelligence Community (IC), gathered original views and recommendations of senior government intelligence practitioners and observers, and developed a database of course and program offerings in prominent civilian institutions of higher education in the U.S. Data from these sources were assessed in light of core competencies for intelligence analysts developed by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The researcher found that new hires had typically not pursued an intelligence studies path but rather a liberal arts program. Most applauded the idea of university intelligence courses but see such a specialized curriculum as more appropriate for graduate-level education once intelligence professionals are more settled in their careers. Subject matter experts generally concurred and expressed concern about program quality. The implication is that intelligence education programs are useful in times of crisis when many bright analysts are needed quickly, but the great expansion of such programs is not merited and raises questions of deficiencies in self-assessment. A detailed written survey of universities across the nation is recommended, and a prototype of the survey is offered to ODNI for follow-up. ODNI can thus help shape the preparation of individuals who are sufficiently prepared for the myriad challenges they will face as key players in the IC of the 21st century.
Category:Essays & ThesesReads:3,518Uploaded:09 / 07 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionForecasting Accuracy and Cognitive Bias in the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is an analytic methodology used in the United States Intelligence Community to aid qualitative analysis. Taking into consideration what previous studies found, an experiment was conducted testing the methodology’s estimative accuracy as well as its ability to mitigate cognitive phenomena which hinder the analytical process. The findings of the experiment suggest ACH can improve estimative accuracy, is highly effective at mitigating some cognitive phenomena such as confirmation bias, and is almost certain to encourage analysts to use more information and apply it more appropriately. However, the results suggest that ACH may be less effective for an analytical problem where the objective probabilities of each hypothesis are nearly equal. Given these findings, future studies should focus less on the question of ACH’s general efficacy, but instead should aim to expand our understanding of when the methodology is most appropriate to use.
Category:Essays & ThesesReads:3,613Uploaded:08 / 12 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionDeadly Education -- Evaluating Which Universities Are Attractive To International Terrorists
It is increasingly evident that terrorists are likely to consider developing and deploying weapons of mass destruction. To do such things, it is necessary to acquire a skill set reflecting advanced scientific or engineering training, which may be obtained at a university or college. By examining the criteria that terrorists might use to select a university for specific degree offerings, a multi-criteria decision-making matrix can be used to determine which universities are most likely to attract terrorists on the basis of course availability, advanced degree levels, and specific research opportunities. Universities can be further examined by studying the international student population in science/engineering disciplines. This project is a case study of such an analysis that examines colleges and universities in Germany to determine which universities are most attractive to international terrorists seeking to learn the skills necessary to develop or employ chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.
Category:Essays & ThesesReads:1,856Uploaded:08 / 04 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionTeaching Strategic Intelligence Through Games
Strategic intelligence is considered by intelligence professionals to be the highest form of the analytic art. There is a tremendous demand for this type of intelligence product and a lack of trained professionals capable of producing it. Developing effective teaching methods for this challenging subject, therefore, is an area of ongoing concern for the business, law enforcement and national security intelligence communities. Previous research suggests that a game-based approach to teaching can be successful but no report so far has examined game-based learning in intelligence analysis. I hypothesized that a game-based approach to teaching strategic intelligence analysis would increase learning and improve performance while also increasing student satisfaction with the course. This paper reports the initial results and lessons learned from teaching three full courses (2 undergraduate and one graduate) in strategic intelligence using games as a teaching tool. The paper will begin by examining the unique challenges in teaching strategy, strategic decisionmaking and the types of intelligence that supports those efforts. This will be followed by a short discussion concerning games-based learning generally before examining in detail the specific approaches used in these three courses. This paper will also examine both the learning outcomes and student satisfaction with the courses. Finally, this paper will discuss appropriate course modifications for undergraduate and graduate students when teaching advanced subjects with games-based on the evidence from this study.
Category:ResearchReads:2,394Uploaded:07 / 05 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionSubjective Interpretation of Reliability and Accuracy Scales For Evaluating Military Intelligence
This 1975 US Army report outlines the results of experimental research into the system used at the time for evaluating the reliability and accuracy of US military intelligence information. The experiments indicated that the system used at the time was ineffective.
Category:Government DocsReads:1,463Uploaded:06 / 22 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionExplicit Conceptual Models: Synthesizing Divergent and Convergent Thinking
Explicit conceptual modeling (ECM) within intelligence analysis is a topic on which very little specific research has thus far been done. However, when considering the complexity and depth of most intelligence requirements it becomes evident that consideration of this topic is both crucial and long overdue. This thesis examines what little literature exists on conceptual modeling within intelligence analysis, in addition to discussing relevant studies from other fields that help to shed light on the need for, and value of, incorporating this technique into intelligence analysis. After examining the relevant literature, an experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that intelligence analysts who engage in ECM will generate better analytic products, as evaluated by thoroughness of process and accuracy of product, than analysts who do not. However, despite a wealth of literature strongly suggesting that ECM will improve analysis the results of this study’s experiment did not support that notion. The author ends by drawing conclusions from the experimental data highlighting the notion that ECM requires a combination of robust divergent and convergent thinking techniques to be successful
Category:(not categorized)Reads:1,577Uploaded:03 / 01 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionThe Evolution of Structured Analytic Techniques -- Richards Heuer -- 8 DEC 2009
By Richards J. Heuer, Jr. Presentation to the National Academy of Science, National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Washington, DC, December 8, 2009.
Category:Government DocsReads:2,026Uploaded:01 / 04 / 2010ShareAdd to collectionResistance
This is a game about heroism, loss, revenge, justice, and fighting back. Resistance is a World War II role-playing game where the player plays a character that is fighting for one of the many resistance movements in counties occupied by the Axis forces of Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Category:Puzzles/GamesReads:1,216Uploaded:06 / 22 / 2009ShareAdd to collection
