MEDIA

RELEASE

(February 3, 2010)FROM: Dr. Ana Maria L. TabundaChief Research FellowPulse Asia, Inc.RE: Pulse Asia’s January 2010Pre-election Survey for National Elective Positions

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public somefindings from the January 2010 Pre-Election national survey.The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the followingwere some of the key political developments and issues that dominated the newsheadlines: (1) the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January 2010 and theinternational effort to help the country; (2) the impending retirement of Supreme CourtChief Justice Reynato Puno and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado and the issue of whether President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo shouldappoint their replacements or leave the task to the next president; (3) the report of theSenate Committee of the Whole seeking the censure of Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. overthe C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by the latter’s Senate allies tounseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee; (4) theCommission on Election (COMELEC) decision clearing the way for the candidacies of President Arroyo and former President Joseph Estrada in the May 2010 elections; (5) thereinstatement of a few presidential and senatorial candidates and the inclusion of severalparty-list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates toten for the presidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the

2party-list; (6) questions regarding the certainty of the automation of the May 2010 pollsamidst delays in the delivery of counting machines and the training of teachers for theAutomated Election System (AES); and (7) the continuing investigation into theMaguindanao massacre that took place in November 2009. Also gaining media attentionduring this period was the arrest of Jason Ivler on 18 January 2010, the suspect in theshooting of Renato Victor Ebarle, Jr. over a vehicular altercation that took place inNovember last year.Meanwhile, in the economic front, this period saw the price of refined sugar go upto P60/kilo in selected Metro Manila retail outlets despite its suggested retail price of P52/kilo. On the other hand, the prices of diesel and kerosene products declined slightlydue to a drop in international oil prices. It was also at this time that the EconomicFreedom Index was released, showing the Philippines in 105

place (out of 179countries) and under the category of “mostly unfree economies”.For the electoral preference module, Pulse Asia made use of a ballot thatconforms to the latest COMELEC sample that was available prior to the conduct of thissurvey. In pioneering the use of a replica of the prospective ballot

, Pulse Asia aims toprovide substantive feedback on the length of time that it may take to complete thenew ballot and also surface some of the concerns associated with filling it out.M

easuring 8” x 29”, the ballot lists the names of the candidates for the national postsalphabetically, consistent with the official list released by the COMELEC. Respondentswere asked to indicate their preference on the ballot based on the written instructionstherein.Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 yearsold and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a

2% error margin at the 95%confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the surveyhave the following error margins at 95% confidence level:

6% for Metro Manila,

4%for the rest of Luzon and

5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face fieldinterviews for this project were conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010. (Thoseinterested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires andsampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design andconduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. Inkeeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan groupinfluenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes pre-election surveys on its ownwithout any party singularly commissioning the research effort.For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, PulseAsia President at 09189335497 / 9945602 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Pulse Asia’s January 2010 Pre-Election SurveyVoter Preferences for National PositionsFebruary 3, 2010Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino III and Senator Manuel “Manny” B. Villar,Jr. have virtually the same voter preferences as they lead other presidentialcandidates in Pulse Asia's latest survey.

With about four months to go before the May 10, 2010 elections, presidentialcandidates Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino (Liberal Party) and Senator Manuel“Manny” B. Villar (Nacionalista Party) are tied for the presidency, with Senator Aquinoregistering 37% of voter preferences and Senator Villar 35%. The only other presidentialcandidate with a double-digit preference is former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ngMasang Pilipino) at 12%. The other candidates register voter preferences of at most 5%.Less than one in ten Filipinos (6%) does not have a preferred presidential candidate atthis time.

(See Table 1, Distribution of presidential preferences by Region.)

Across areas, Senator Aquino takes the lead in the National Capital Region, with38% support against Senator Villar’s 24%. The two front-runners register virtually thesame preference in Balance Luzon (Aquino, 37%; Villar, 36%); Visayas (Aquino, 41%;Villar, 38%); and, Mindanao (Villar, 36%; Aquino, 33%). (

See Table 1, Distribution of presidential preferences by Region.)

able 1FIRST CHOICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE BY REGION

January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines(Column Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

LOCATION

If the coming 2010 elections were held today, whom would you vote for as

Reg 9, 12Reg 10,

PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINES?

TotalNorthSouthTotalWestCentralEastTotalARMMCARAGAReg 11

AQUINO, Benigno Simeon III C. "Noynoy"

37383737374139463533353229

VILLAR, Manuel Jr. B. "Manny"

35243638343841353636354229

ESTRADA EJERCITO, Joseph M. "Erap"

121498106631322231532

TEODORO, Gilberto Jr. C. "Gibo"

5845277794444

VILLANUEVA, Eduardo C. "Bro. Eddie"

2321331541121

GORDON, Richard J. "Dick"

1511100001102

MADRIGAL, Jamby AS. "Jamby"

0.5011112000010

DE LOS REYES, John Carlos G. "JC"

0.3000010110010

ACOSTA, Vetallano S. "Dodong"

0.2100000010000

PERLAS, Jesus Nicanor P. "Nick"

0.05000000000001

None / Refused / Undecided

671091235312223

Q1. Kung ang darating na eleksyon sa Mayo 2010 ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS? (SHOW SAMPLE BALLOT AND LIST OF CANDIDATES). Ito po ay sample ballot lamang na ginagamit sa survey na ito. Paki basa po ang instruksyon sa sample ballot bago kayo bumoto. Pagkatapos po ninyong bumoto, pakibalik po sa akin ang inyong sample ballot.

RPNCRBALANCE LUZONVISAYASMINDANAO

Across socio-demographic groups and taking the error margins for the subgroupsinto account, Senator Aquino leads among Class D (40%) and among the elderly aged 65years and over (42%). On the other hand, Senator Villar enjoys the lead in the 25-34 agegroup (42%). Voter preferences for the two leading candidates are essentially the same