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Santorum Path to Victory Memo - 3.11

Santorum Path to Victory Memo - 3.11

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Published by nationaljournal
For the story: "Romney: Santorum Needs 'Miracle' to Get Nomination" -- http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/romney-santorum-needs-miracle-to-get-nomination-20120312
For the story: "Romney: Santorum Needs 'Miracle' to Get Nomination" -- http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/romney-santorum-needs-miracle-to-get-nomination-20120312

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Published by: nationaljournal on Mar 12, 2012
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06/10/2014

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To:MikeBiundoFrom:JohnPatrickYobDate:March11
th
,2012Re:SantorumPathtoDelegateVictory
RickSantorumisverywellpositionedtoearnthedelegatesnecessarytowinthenationalconventiondespitewhattheRomneycampaignandtheirofficial/unofficialsurrogates’fuzzymathmayclaim.AsaresultoftheirinabilitytoinspiretheGOPbasedonmessage,theRomneycampaignmadethecuriousdecisiontoleadtheirpost-SuperTuesdaycampaignwiththeargumentthattheraceisover,ratherthantoutinghispositivequalitiesasacandidate.TheefforttotalkaboutthemathwasadefensivesmokescreenintendedtodistractfromthemajorproblemstheRomneycampaignfacesincounty,district,andstateconventionsacrossthecountrywhennationalconventiondelegatesareactuallyelected.Therealityissimple:theRomneymathdoesn’taddupandhewillhaveaverydifficulttimeevergettingtoamajorityofthedelegates.ThesituationisonlygoingtogetworseforthemandbetterforRickSantorumastimepasses.Simplyput,timeisonourside.
StrengthofCandidacy
Romneyhasbeenforcedtooutspendthefielddramaticallyinordertobarelywininstatesheshouldhavewonhandily(MichiganandOhio),andlosingotherstatesbywidemargins(TennesseeandOklahoma).RickSantorumcontinuestowincontestsandgainnationalconventiondelegatesbecausehehasemergedasthefavoriteoftheconservativegrassrootsbaseoftheRepublicanParty.Asaresulthehaswinsinmostcaucuses.HealsohaswonthemajorityofcountieseveninRomneystatesexcludingmoderateurbanareas.
 
SupportfromConservativeBase
Romneyhasprovenincapableofinspiringgrassrootsconservativesupportincaucusesashehaslostmosteverycaucuscontestdespiteoutspendingtheothercandidatesbymanymultiples.Similarly,thereareseriouscracksintheRomneyfinanceoperationasthecampaignfinancereportsshowthatheisincapableofinspiringgrassrootsdonorsacrossthecountrytodonatetohiscampaign.Insteadhiscampaignsarefundedbycontributorswhohavealreadymaxedoutandareincapableofdonatingagainintheprimary.ThisexplainswhytheSuperPACisforcedtopayforsuchalargeproportionoftheirpaidmedia.Thelackofgrassrootssupportthatplaguedhiscaucusstatesoperation,andplaguedhissmalldonoroperation,willnowplaguehisnationaldelegateelectionoperation.RickSantorumhasexcelledincaucusesandsmalldollarcontributionsandthereforewillalsoexcelatstateconventionswhereactivistsaremoreconservativethantheaverageprimaryvoter.
LongerProportionalProcessFavorsMoreConservativeCandidates
IservedinasimilarroleforJohnMcCain2008.AtthispointoftheprocesstherewasaveryrealconcernaboutthepossibilityofamoreconservativecandidatestayingintheraceandfightingusatstateconventionsacrossthecountrywheremoreconservativeactivistsdeterminetheelectionofNationalConventionDelegates.AlthoughJohnMcCainwaswinningprimariesinafracturedconservativefield,hewasnotthefavoriteofgrassrootsconservativeactivistsintheparty.Similarly,inthisrace,adrawnoutprocessfavorsconservativecandidatessuchasRickSantorum.ThisisamajorproblemforMittRomney,themoderateinthisrace.Evenmoreimportantly,theproportionalprocessthatRomneysupporterspushedthroughtheRepublicanNationalCommitteehasturnedouttobeamajorproblemforthecampaign.Suddenlytheelectionoftheactualdelegatesatcounty,state,anddistrictcaucusesisnowmoreimportantthantheprimaries—regardlessofwhatthemediacoversasdeterminative.Itisdifficultforanycandidatetoclinchthenominationinaproportionalcalendarwithoutover-performinginthestateconventionsthatelectthedelegates.Asaresult,thestateconventionswillultimatelydeterminetheoutcomeofthisrace.
RomneyFrontloadedFriendlyStates
RomneysupportersontheRepublicanNationalCommitteemanipulatedthecalendartofront-loadseveralofthestatesthatwerefavorabletowardshim.Thatwasbeneficialtohisearlyleadinthedelegatecount,howeveritisproblematicforhimastheracecontinuesandmovestowardslessfriendlystates.ThisisoneofthereasonsthattheyemphasizedfuzzymathafterSuperTuesday.
 
RaceMovestowardsSantorum’sStrengths
TheraceforthenominationwillsoonstarttomovetowardsprimariesandcaucusesthataremorefavorableterrainforRickSantorum.Moreimportantly,theracewilleventuallymovefromprimariesandcaucusesthatareoftenbeautyconteststorealcountyandstateconventioncontestswhereactualdelegatestothenationalconventionareelected.Anyonewhoknowsanythingaboutstateconventionsknowsthatthemostconservativecandidatehasabigadvantageoveramoderatecandidate.Inmanycases,thisadvantageisoverwhelming.
Romney’sDelegateProblem
Romneyhasadelegateprobleminthathewillhaveaveryhardtimegettinghismoderatesupporterselectedasdelegatesintheseconventionsystems.ThiswasevidentinIowathisweekendwheretheRomneyoperationcollapsed,andSantorumandPaulgained.
TheRealCalendar
TheRealCalendar(TRC)officiallykickedoffthisweekendinIowawhereactivistsgatheredtobegintheprocessofelectingnationalconventiondelegates.ItiscleartoanyonewhounderstandsthisprocessthatamoderatecandidatelikeMittRomneyisgoingtohaveadifficulttimewinningasmanydelegatestothenationalconventioninanIowaCountyandStateConventionsystemasthemediacalculatedbasedontheOpenCaucussystemthattookplaceinJanuary.Thissystemwillplayoutinstateafterstate,andalthoughtherewillbehiccupsincertainstates,onaverageRickSantorumwillgainfarmoredelegatesthanMittRomneythroughthisdelegateelectionprocess.
TheRealCount
ThecountlargelydependsonhowyoucalculatethedelegatesinstatessuchasIowathathavenotyetelectedtheirNationalConventionDelegates.Forexample,theRNCcurrentlygivesSantorum0delegatesforIowaandthemediagiveshim7.Webelievehewillendupwithmorethan7delegatesastheprocessplaysout.WealsobelievethatRomneywillreceiveless.MostofthepubliclyavailabledelegatecountsarefundamentallyflawedbecausenoneofthemhavetakenintoaccountthatconservativegrassrootsactivistsatcountyandstateconventionswillelectmoreSantorumdelegatesthanaprimaryorevencaucusbeautycontestinthesamerespectivestatewouldallocate.Therefore,theRealCountsarefarbetterthantheprojectedcountsandwillcontinuetoimproveastheNationalConventionapproachesandstateselecttheiractualconventiondelegates.TheSantorumcampaignwillkeepatallycalledtheRealCountmovingforward.ItwillbebasedontheresultsofboththeRealCalendarandtheTraditionalCalendar.

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Tanner Jones added this note
nice story...Santorum, if he wins the states that you said he will, will not gain that much. Almost all of the winner take all contests left are Romney territory (or your candidate didn't qualify). Anywhere santorum wins, Romney will come close in delegates (as we saw in Mississippi, Alabama, Iowa, etc..), and Romney will be winning states as well, which means Romney will continue on to victory!

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