smacfarl

Recent historical experience argues that the labor-market effects of the next recession will last far longer than the formal recession itself. This report uses the experience of the last three recessions to predict labor market outcomes of a recession in 2008. A recession that is mild-to-moderate by recent historical standards would be formally over in six to nine months (as was the case of...

People differ markedly in their views concerning the appropriate role of government in reducing economic inequality. Self-interest and differences in values explain part of the conflict over redistribution. But by far the most important fault line is that people hold different beliefs about why the rich are rich and the poor are poor. Survey data show that people—rich and poor alike—who t...

Higazy was forced into a false confession of participation in 9.11, because the FBI threatened to have his family tortured by Egyptian security forces. After he was proved innocent he sued the FBI. The court found in his favor but the FBI got the details that them look bad redacted for National Security reasons. This is a copy of the unredacted initial findings. for more details See htt...

The institution of copyrights has its origins in the feudal guild system. Copyrights provide an incentive for creative or artistic work by providing a state-enforced monopoly. Like any other monopoly, this system leads to enormous inefficiencies, and creates substantial enforcement problems. The size of these inefficiencies and the extent of the enforcement problems have increased dramatica...

序言起航的中国经济航母，会一帆风顺 么？ 美国财长保尔森在访华前夕接受美国全国广播公司有线电视频道CNBC 访问时指 出，作为经济大国，“他们已是全球经济的领导者，世界其他国家不会再给他们 很多时间”。毫无疑问，这个“他们”，就是中国。 显然，今天的中国，正以惊人的速度，将自己变成全球经济举足轻重的一部分。 一系列的经济数据和迹象都表明，庞大的中国经济航母，已经起程。 如果说，三年前政治局请几位学者进京讲授大国崛起的历史，还只是在为中国可 以预见的发展作准备，那么从“崛起”到“发展”提法上的变化，就足以看出中 国自信心的调整、看出中国经济发展的速度之快，甚至超过了中央电视台那部叫 作“大国崛起”的拍摄速度。 全世界都把目光对准中国：“21 世纪将是中国人的世纪”、“2040 年左右，中 国经济实力将赶超美国”的说法不绝于耳，似乎中国成为世界第一经济强国已成 ...

• Has the white working class abandoned the Democratic Party? No. White voters in the bottom third of the income distribution have actually become more reliably Democratic in presidential elections over the past half-century, while middle- and upper-income white voters have trended Republican. Low-income whites have become less Democratic in their partisan identifications, but at a slower rate ...

We find that income matters more in “red America” than in “blue America.” In poor states, rich people are much more likely than poor people to vote for the Republican presidential candidate, but in rich states (such as Connecticut), income has a very low correlation with vote preference. In addition to finding this pattern and studying its changes over time, we use the concepts of typicality an...

There is considerable international discussion that the confrontation between Iran and the international community over its nuclear programme may change in character into a major war between Iran and either US or Israel or both in conjunction with allies such as the United Kingdom. This study uses open source analysis to outline what the military option might involve if it were picked up of...

In summary, we found Summary: The benchmarks were derived from commitments first articulated by the Iraqi government in June 2006. The Iraqi government met 3, partially met 4, and did not meet 11 of its 18 benchmarks. Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds. These results...

Too early for data discovery