kwheaton

This research presents the findings of a study that analyzed words of estimative probability in the key judgments of National Intelligence Estimates from the 1950s through the 2000s. The research found that of the 50 words examined, only 13 were statistically significant. Furthermore, interesting trends have emerged when the words are broken down into English modals, terminology that conveys ...

Contains maps and charts by the Special Inspector General For Iraq Reconstruction.

What Do Words Of Estimative Probability Mean? An Exercise In Analyst Education

The Revolution Begins On Page Five: The Changing Nature Of The National Intelligence Estimate And Its Implications For Intelligence (previously published on www.sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com)

1993 thesis describing a system for modeling countries making a transition from authoritarian rule. To demonstrate the validity of the model, I constructed a simulation, ran it and compared it to the actual results from the Hungarian elections in 1994.

This article, written by Kristan J. Wheaton and Diane Chido, explains the basics of evaluating intelligence products.

A Wiki Is Like A Room And Other Lessons Learned From 15 Wiki-based, Open Source, Intelligence Analysis Projects (Pre-Pub/Complete/ISA 2008 Version)