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10
th
Grade-level Prerequisite for the Global Warming DebateBy Ransom W. Stephens, Ph.D.Copyright 2009When scientific questions are elevated to public significance they are debated in an utterlynonscientific way – eloquence, prejudice, even ridicule sway public opinion when facts are perceived as too arcane for the populace to understand. So today, I invite you to use science thatyou learned in high school to address a fundamental point in the global warming debate.Is it reasonable to expect the general populace to be scientifically literate? We expectcitizens to be able to read, why not expect them to remember a little high school science? Or isthe problem that scientists so rarely invite the populace to the argument that it is unreasonable toexpect them to know the language?Here’s your invitation: Calculate the percentage increase in the carbon dioxide content of theatmosphere due to the oil that people burned last year.First, we’ll figure out how many carbon dioxide (CO
2
) molecules are released in the processof burning oil. Then we’ll calculate the volume of that CO
2
and compare it to the total volume of CO
2
that was in the air to begin with.Since we’re not experts, we’ll have to make a few approximations and assumptions that will pull us 20-30% from the actual value. Keep in mind that, by dotting every “t” and crossing every“i”, the experts can make the calculation with an uncertainty of less than 1%.In the process you’ll remember things from high school and will have to do some arithmetic, but no more than it takes to prepare your taxes (sorry to bring that up). Hopefully you’ll discover that you’re capable of addressing the global warming debate in a scientific way, just like you’recapable of addressing health care, social security, or the Iraq war in a political way.
 
Stephens / Global Warming2 of 4Here we go: Gasoline is made up of hydrocarbons, a mix of long chains that are described by C
n
H
2
n
+2.
The “C” represents a carbon atom, and the “H” a hydrogen atom. The carbons areconnected in a chain that is
n
carbons long. Each carbon has two hydrogens attached, except ateach end of the chain where they have three. The length of the chain,
n
, is almost always anumber between 5 and 12 – let’s pick 
n
= 8 and use C
8
H
18
– this is our first assumption. Now you need to find some of the brain cells that you filled in high school to recall an 18
th
century Italian lawyer named Avogadro who was interested in chemistry. He figured out that theatomic mass of an element in grams contains 6
×
10
23
atoms – a ridiculously large number called a“mole” (this should dredge up some bad puns from 9
th
grade).Since the atomic mass of carbon is about 12 grams, and that of hydrogen is about 1 gm, theatomic or, more properly, the molecular mass of C
8
H
18
is about 8
×
12 + 18 = 114 gm. When gas is burned, almost every carbon atom ends up in a carbon dioxide molecule, CO
2
, so when 114 gmof gas are burned about 8
×
6
×
10
23
= 48
×
10
23
CO
2
molecules are released into the air.Oil is counted by the barrel, and a barrel holds 159 liters which is about 159,000 gm (350 pounds or so). Dividing that by the molecular mass of C
8
H
18
, 114 gm, and we get 159,000/114 =1400 moles of C
8
H
18
in each barrel which, when burned, results in 1400
×
48
×
10
23
= 6.7
×
10
27
CO
2
molecules per barrel of gas. At the Department of Energy’s estimate of 80 million barrels eachday, that’s 80,000,000
×
6.7
×
10
27
= 5.4
×
10
35
CO
2
molecules per day, or 365
×
5.4
×
10
35
= 2
×
10
38
CO
2
molecules per year.To estimate how much CO
2
was in the atmosphere to begin with, start by calculating thevolume of the whole atmosphere. Since we’re not experts, we can be lazy about our facts. The air is pretty thin at the top of Mount Everest, which is 8800 meters high (about 5.5 miles) so let’s setthe height at 9000 m. To counter that underestimate, we’ll assume that the atmosphere is aCopyright 2009 Ransom Stephens
 
Stephens / Global Warming3 of 4uniform shell of air that has about the same temperature and pressure as it does on the beach inSan Diego where it’s much thicker than at the top of Everest.The average radius of Earth is about 6 million meters, so the volume of the atmosphere is 4
×
π  
×
(6
×
10
6
m)
2
×
(9,000 m) = 4
×
10
18
cubic meters.We need a reference point. I have this old book,
 Physical Constants
, by W.H.J. Childs published in 1934 that says the atmosphere was about 0.03% CO
2
.This means that we start with0.0003
×
4
×
10
18
= 1.2
×
10
15
cubic meters of CO
2
which is 1.2
×
10
18
liters.
 
Perhaps the coolest thing you learned in 9
th
or 10
th
(maybe 7
th
) grade is that, at standardtemperature and pressure (beach in San Diego), one Mole (6
×
10
23
) of gas molecules occupy 22.4liters of volume. Therefore, in 1934, the atmosphere contained a total of about 6
×
10
23
×
1.2
×
10
18
/22.4 = 3.2
×
10
40
CO
2
Molecules.At last we can compare the number of CO
2
molecules produced by people burning oil eachyear (1.8
×
10
38
) with the number that were present in the atmosphere in 1934 (3.2
×
10
40
). whichmeans that people burn enough gas to increase the atmospheric concentration of CO
2
by 100
×
2
×
10
38
/3.2
×
10
40
= 0.6% each year.In a decade we increase the CO
2
content by about 6% - just by burning gas. If we includecoal (about 22 million kg burned each day), natural gas, cigarettes, incense, ethanol, vegetableoil, wood, or almost anything else that burns, the result is about twice what we got from oilalone.Our 10
th
grade-level calculation shows that the 35% increase in CO
2
over the last 100 yearsreported by the experts can easily be accounted for by human activity.Copyright 2009 Ransom Stephens
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