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maedels march 2010 fnl
With an update on HUSA
Americas Morning Summary
July 7, 2009
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This document contains commentsrelated to the following stocks:Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE)AK Steel Holding (AKS)Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM)ALCOA (AA)Allegheny Technologies (ATI)Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)America Movil (AMX)Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW)Axtel (AXTELCPO.MX)Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU)BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ)BlueLinx Holdings, Inc. (BXC)BMC Software, Inc. (BMC)CA, Inc. (CA)Chattem, Inc. (CHTT)Check Point Software Tech. (CHKP)Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS)The Coca-Cola Company (KO)Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (CCE)Cognizant Technology Solutions(CTSH)Commercial Metals Company(CMC)CommVault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)Domtar Corp. (UFS)Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS)EarthLink, Inc. (ELNK)eBay Inc. (EBAY)Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR)ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS)Expedia Inc. (EXPE)Genpact Ltd. (G)Gerdau AmeriSteel Corp. (GNA)Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (ROCK)GSI Commerce, Inc. (GSIC)GVT (GVTT3.SA)HCL Technologies Ltd. (HCLT.BO)IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)Infosys Technologies Ltd.(INFY.BO)Infosys Technologies Ltd. (ADR)(INFY)
Focus Items
Americas: Paper & Forest Products: Trading Update: Still positive oncontainerboard stocks into 2Q09 earnings; Buy IP and TIN
1
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) Buy: Upgrade DKS to Buy from Neutral; still agrowth/consolidation play
2
Kohl's Corp. (KSS) Buy: Upgrade to Buy; winning in the middle
3
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) Sell: Downgrading to Sell as EPS growth likelydecelerates in 2H2009
4
Jones Apparel Group (JNY) Buy: Upgrade to Buy; understated earnings power with 2H recovery
5
Americas: Consumer Staples: Monthly Staples Snapshot: price performance,valuations, and pair trade of the month
6
Americas: Beverages: Soft Drinks: Positive trading bias into 2Q2009 reports; buyCCE and DPS
7
Americas: Technology: Software: Updating price targets as we explicitlyincorporate M&A potential into our framework
8
Key Data Changes
Investment List Additions
Company Ticker Investment List Additions
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc.BJ Americas Sell ListDick's Sporting GoodsDKS Americas Buy ListJones Apparel GroupJNY Americas Buy ListKohl's Corp.KSS Americas Buy List
Investment List Removals
Company Ticker Investment List Removals
TelmexTMX Americas Sell List
Rating and price target changes
Rating/CoverageviewPrice Target EstimatesCompany Ticker New Old New Old % chgCurrent Year Next Year Fiscaly/e
Akamai Technologies, Inc.AKAM N/N unch
↑
$21.00 $18.50 13.5% $1.33 $1.40 DecAmerica MovilAMX N/N unch
↑
$38.60 $35.00 10.3% $3.28 $3.80 Dec
International Paper Company (IP)Intuit, Inc. (INTU)Jones Apparel Group (JNY)Kellogg Company (K)Kohl's Corp. (KSS)Limelight Networks, Inc. (LLNW)Louisiana-Pacific Corp. (LPX)McAfee, Inc. (MFE)MeadWestvaco Corp. (MWV)Megacable (MEGACPO.MX)Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)Monster Worldwide, Inc. (MWW)NET (NETC4.SA)NII Holdings (NIHD)Norbord Inc. (NBD.TO)Nuance Communications, Inc.(NUAN)Nucor Corp. (NUE)Oi (Telemar) (TNLP4.SA)Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.(FLWS)Oracle Corp. (ORCL)Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (OWW)Packaging Corp. of America (PKG)Patni Computer Systems Ltd (ADR)(PTI)Patni Computer Systems Ltd.(PTNI.BO)The Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG)PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL)Priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN)Quest Software, Inc. (QSFT)RealNetworks, Inc. (RNWK)Red Hat, Inc. (RHT)Reliance Steel and Aluminum Co.(RS)salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM)SAP (ADR) (SAP)Sappi Ltd. (ADR) (SPP)Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN)SolarWinds, Inc. (SWI)Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD)SuccessFactors, Inc. (SFSF)Symantec Corp. (SYMC)Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.(TCS.BO)Telecom Argentina (TEO)Telesp (TLPP4.SA)Telmex (TMX)Temple-Inland Inc. (TIN)The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.(HAIN)TIBCO Software Inc. (TIBX)TIM Brazil (TCSL3.SA)TIM Brazil (TCSL4.SA)U.S. Steel Group (X)VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)Vistaprint Limited (VPRT)Vivo (VIVO4.SA)VMware, Inc. (VMW)WebMD Health Corp. (WBMD)West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd.(WFT.TO)
AxtelAXTELCPO.MXS/N unch
↑
P$6.30 P$6.00 5.0% (P$0.22) P$0.35 DecBJ's Wholesale Club, Inc.BJ
↓
S/N N/N
↓
$33.00 $39.00 (15.4%) $2.49 $2.60 JanCitrix Systems Inc.CTXS B/N unch
↑
$35.00 $33.00 6.1% $1.16 $1.35 DecThe Coca-Cola CompanyKO B/N unch
↑
$53.00 $52.00 1.9% $3.05 $3.35 DecCommVault Systems, Inc.CVLT S/N unch
↑
$15.00 $12.00 25.0% $0.32 $0.49 Mar Dick's Sporting GoodsDKS
↑
B/N N/N $20.00 unch -- $0.97 $1.12 JanDomtar Corp.UFS N/N unch
↓
$21.00 $24.00 (12.5%) ($2.50) ($1.50) DecGVTGVTT3.SA B/N unch
↑
R$40.00R$38.40 4.2% R$1.49 R$2.12 DecJones Apparel GroupJNY
↑
B/N N/N
↑
$12.00 $9.70 23.7% $0.66 $0.87 DecKellogg CompanyK N/N unch
↑
$50.00 $49.00 2.0% $3.20 $3.53 DecKohl's Corp.KSS
↑
B/N N/N
↑
$50.00 $44.00 13.6% $2.76 $3.02 JanMegacableMEGACPO.MXS/N unch
↑
P$16.50P$16.00 3.1% P$1.71 P$1.79 DecNETNETC4.SA N/N unch
↑
R$19.30R$19.00 1.6% R$1.18 R$1.35 DecOi (Telemar)TNLP4.SA N/N unch
↓
R$34.00R$39.30 (13.5%) R$2.27 R$3.29 DecPhilip Morris InternationalInc.PM B/N unch
↑
$51.00 $50.00 2.0% $3.08 $3.49 DecSappi Ltd. (ADR)SPP S/N unch
↓
$2.70 $3.00 (10.0%) ($0.27) ($0.25) JulTelecom ArgentinaTEO S/N unch
↑
$8.80 $7.75 13.5% $1.83 $1.87 DecTelespTLPP4.SA B/N unch
↓
R$53.50R$58.70 (8.9%) R$4.94 R$5.56 DecTelmexTMX
↑
N/N S/N
↑
$15.90 $15.00 6.0% $1.75 $1.87 DecTIM BrazilTCSL3.SA N/N unch
↑
R$7.10 R$7.00 1.4% R$0.06 R$0.22 DecVivoVIVO4.SA B/N unch
↑
R$44.70R$44.30 0.9% R$2.55 R$3.78 DecWest Fraser Timber Co.,Ltd.WFT.TO S/N unch
↓
C$27.00C$30.00 (10.0%) (C$5.50) (C$3.65) Dec
Estimate changes
Current Year Next Year Company Ticker Rating/CoverageviewNew Old % chg New Old % chgFiscaly/e
ALCOAAA B/N
↓
($1.20) ($1.02) (17.6%) $0.40 unch -- DecAmerica MovilAMX N/N
↑
$3.28 $3.21 2.2%
↓
$3.80 $3.91 (2.7%) DecAxtelAXTELCPO.MXS/N
↑
(P$0.22)(P$0.25)8.8%
↑
P$0.35 P$0.32 11.0% DecBlueLinx Holdings, Inc.BXC N/N
↓
($1.20) ($1.05) (14.8%)
↓
($0.70) ($0.35) (98.6%) DecCoca-ColaEnterprises, Inc.CCE B/N
↑
$1.42 $1.37 3.6%
↑
$1.58 $1.53 3.3% DecDomtar Corp.UFS N/N
↓
($2.50) ($2.36) (5.8%)
↓
($1.50) ($1.16) (29.8%) DecDr Pepper SnappleGroupDPS B/N
↑
$1.81 $1.79 0.9%
↑
$1.95 $1.93 0.9% DecGVTGVTT3.SA B/N
↓
R$1.49 R$1.55 (3.9%)
↑
R$2.12 R$2.02 5.3% DecInternational Paper CompanyIP B/N
↓
$0.25 $0.40 (36.9%)
↓
$0.65 $0.70 (7.3%) DecJones Apparel GroupJNY B/N $0.66 unch --
↑
$0.87 $0.78 10.7% DecKohl's Corp.KSS B/N
↑
$2.76 $2.63 4.9%
↑
$3.02 $2.83 6.5% JanLouisiana-Pacific Corp.LPX B/N ($1.20) unch --
↓
($0.50) ($0.40) (25.3%) DecMeadWestvaco Corp.MWV N/N
↓
$0.05 $0.15 (66.5%)
↓
$0.25 $0.40 (38.0%) DecMegacableMEGACPO.MXS/N
↑
P$1.71 P$1.65 3.5%
↑
P$1.79 P$1.75 2.8% DecNETNETC4.SA N/N
↑
R$1.18 R$1.02 15.4%
↑
R$1.35 R$1.31 3.4% DecNII HoldingsNIHD N/N
↑
$2.16 $2.15 0.2% $2.97 unch -- DecNucor Corp.NUE B/N
↑
($0.58) ($0.70) 16.4% $2.00 unch -- DecOi (Telemar)TNLP4.SA N/N
↓
R$2.27 R$4.76 (52.2%)
↓
R$3.29 R$5.49 (40.2%) DecThe Pepsi BottlingGroupPBG N/N
↑
$2.35 $2.33 0.5%
↑
$2.68 $2.66 0.5% Dec
Weyerhaeuser Co. (WY)Wipro Ltd. (WIPR.BO)Wipro Ltd. (ADR) (WIT)WNS (Holdings) Ltd. (WNS)Worthington Industries (WOR)Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Sappi Ltd. (ADR)SPP S/N
↓
($0.27) ($0.25) (9.2%)
↓
($0.25) ($0.03) (676.8%)JulTelecom ArgentinaTEO S/N
↑
$1.83 $1.81 1.5%
↑
$1.87 $1.43 31.2% DecTelespTLPP4.SA B/N
↓
R$4.94 R$5.54 (10.9%)
↓
R$5.56 R$6.18 (10.1%) DecTelmexTMX N/N
↑
$1.75 $1.67 4.4%
↑
$1.87 $1.76 6.6% DecTemple-Inland Inc.TIN B/N
↓
$0.50 $0.60 (16.6%)
↓
$0.70 $0.80 (12.8%) DecTIM BrazilTCSL3.SA N/N
↓
R$0.06 R$0.07 (11.6%)
↓
R$0.22 R$0.25 (12.7%) DecTIM BrazilTCSL4.SA B/N
↓
R$0.06 R$0.07 (11.6%)
↓
R$0.22 R$0.25 (12.7%) DecVivoVIVO4.SA B/N
↓
R$2.55 R$2.69 (4.9%)
↓
R$3.78 R$4.18 (9.4%) DecWest Fraser Timber Co., Ltd.WFT.TO S/N
↓
(C$5.50)(C$5.10)(7.9%)
↓
(C$3.65) (C$3.40)(7.2%) Dec
Other Headlines
Commodities
Commodities Update: Commodity markets correct as US employment data disappoints 9
Basic Materials
United States: Steel, Metals and Mining: 2Q09 steel earnings preview; looking over the valley 10
Consumer Staples
Chattem, Inc. (CHTT): Expecting solid 2Q results; take profits on any strength 11The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN): Pure protein move improves margins, frees up capital, stillNeutral12Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR): Share repurchases could resume as soon as the March 2010quarter 13
Technology
India: Technology: IT Services: Budget proposes STP tax holiday extension and FBT elimination 14Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): Cloud takes shape: Secular headwind abating, could be a tailwind... 15Arrow Electronics Inc. (ARW): Highlights from investor dinner with management 16Americas: Technology: Internet: Internet Notables 17
Telecom Services
Telmex (TMX): Underperforms enough, as operations stabilize; raising to Neutral 18Latin America: Telecom Services: Updating estimates for FX and subscriber data 19
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