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U.S. EQUITY PRODUCT MANAGEMENT GROUP
Friday,July10,2009
 
Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Customers of Barclays Capital in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on thecompany or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available.Customers can access this independent research at
www.lehmanlive.com
or can call 1-800-253-4626 torequest a copy of this research.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 3.
BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. EQUITY PRODUCTMANAGEMENT GROUP
Rob RousePenn EgbertHelen Pan+1 212 526 7323BarCapPMG@barclayscapital.com
08:30 Trade Balance BCS -29.508:30 Import Prices BCS 2.510:00 Consumer Sentiment BCS 70
PGR $0.38 BMO
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A (NY)EXC (NY)Electronic Payments Lunch (NY)
Conference Calls
7/10 (09:00)Healthcare Reform Update 866-219-5631 (code 1377482)7/13 (16:30)Bi-Weekly Equity Trading Update 800-706-8249 (code 10167745)Conferences & Other Events
 
9/9-10Back-To-School Conf , BOS9/9-10CEO Energy / Power Conf , NY9/15-16Financial Service Conf ,NY 9/17-18Global Renewables Conf , Zurich10/12 LME Metals Week Group Dinner, LDN10/13Quant Equities Strategy Conf , NY12/8REIT Conference, NY12/8-9Global Tech Conference, CA
LINKS TO PRIOR DAY’S MARKET SUMMARIES
 
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Highlights of Today’s Most Relevant Research
For a complete list of today’s research notes, including a table of all price targets andestimate revisions, please see the
. Beforethe Bell is compiled from
published by Barclays Capital.
Industrials / Energy
DAN
(1-OW/Neu, $1.25, PT $3.50, $117m) B Johnson -
Confident in ability to clear covenants; solid liquidity; don’t est meaningful vol recovery,2Q eps rebound on cost cuts & F (3-UW, $5.63) production upside; raise eps '09 -$1.68to -$1.35 (v -$1.68 cons), cut '10 $0.45to $0.40 (v $0.45 cons), raise tgt $2 to $3.50.
Mining / HY Credit
– L Jollon –
– Despite weaker steam & met coal outlook,est coal co’s to generate solid results ’09 & ’10; pricing well hedged, favorable maturityprofiles, solid FCF; Overweight ACI & MEE.
Consumer / Retail
Restaurants
(Neu) J Bernstein -
- Cons ests achievable; casual diners benefitfrom cost controls priced in; est stabilization, but not sequential comp improvement;QSR upside modest, comp softening, cost controls ltd, easing fx will help; favor 1-OW
MCD
($56.77),
EAT
($16.31) &
DRI
($32.46) vs 2-EW
CAKE
($16.40) &
PFCB
($31.61).
Food
(Neu) A Lazar -
- Lower input costs driving mgn expansion; current view30bps less favorable than last update, still est 10.% deflation ‘09, pricing to hold into'10;
KFT
(1-OW, $25.80) most levered play;
GIS
(1-OW, $58.68) &
K
(1-OW, $47.33)also to benefit, but
CPB
(1-OW, $29.19) &
HNZ
(2-EW, $35.55) less so.
Financials
Consumer Finance
(Neu) B Harting -
- Spending still weak, though upmodestly as vol decline stabilizes; currency & gas moves help reduce eps drag fromweak cross border;
V
(2-EW, $60.44) reports 7/29; est mid-single digit growth onVisaNet & cost cuts;
MA
(1-OW, $162.80) reports 7/30; est revs flat, more leveraged torecovery in discretionary spend.
 
Barclays Capital | Before the Bell
 July 10, 2009
 
2
 
Tech / Media / Telco
 Japan Consumer Electronics
(Neu) E Lee –
– Taiwanese June shipments +12.4%m/m, industry +2.5%’ LCD glass makers unable to expand capacity fast enough to easecomponent shortage, tv prices trending up; checks suggest Chinese set makers may reduce panelorders given high prices and invties could stabilize in Sept; industry capex to trend up from 2H.
Converts
- M Shivdasani -
- With NTAP not acquiring DDUP, might become pot'ltakeover target itself; convert only debt on bal sheet, op metrics strong, healthy credit profile &liquidity; recommend convert as arb play, to move up cap structure, and/or to express view onpot'l takeover.
Semis
(Neu) T Luke –
- Constructive on RF semis; revs improved QoQ, expectations forfurther improvement in Sept; following group's recent move up prefer
TQNT
(1-OW, $4.92) reports7/22 &
SWKS
(2-EW, $9.98) reports 7/22;
(1-OW, $8.77) reports 7/16, est 2Q revs above ourhigh end est & solid 3Q guide;
(2-EW, $20.77) reports 7/20, est 2Q at least inline w/ cons and3Q guide inline to slightly ahead.
Healthcare
ABT
(1-OW/Neu, $46.31, PT $56, $66b) T Butler –
– Est Humira a con’t focus,co to deliver on 2Q expectations, sets up for better quality 2H; 2Q est $0.89 vs $0.88 cons; epsunch '09 $3.71 (v $3.68 cons),raise '10 $4.12 to $4.18 (v $4.08 cons), cut tgt $59 to $56
Macro
Economics
– D Maki –
– Fears unfounded that better econ data trend has stalled; est 3Qgrowth, incl jump in industrial production in July (+2.1%) and Aug data (+0.7%) to confirm it.
Technical Strategy
– J Kotick –
– Changes in mkt psychology toward risky assetsclearly seen in price action of inflation-linked products; Gold held a small bid intraday; focusremains lower toward 894/882; Crude has lower lows to go; resistance 61.70/62.70 s-term;downside 57.50/58.70; Copper risks are bearish based on the break of nine-week trendlinesupport, pot'l topping pattern.
 
Barclays Capital | Before the Bell
 July 10, 2009
 
3
 
Analyst Certification
Each research publication excerpted herein was certified under Reg AC by the analyst primarily responsible for such report as follows: I hereby certify that:1) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities referred to in this publicationand; 2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Important Disclosures
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investmentmanagement businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to the acquisition date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a written request to: Barclays CapitalResearch Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 17
th
Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to the firm’s disclosure website at
www.lehman.com/disclosures
.
Guide to the Barclays Capital Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:
Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as 1-Overweight, 2-Equal weight or 3-Underweight (see definitions below)relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry sector (the “sector coverageuniverse”). To see a list of the companies that comprise a particular sector coverage universe, please go to
www.lehman.com/disclosures
.In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or 3-Negative (seedefinitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system.Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating1-Overweight
- The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month investmenthorizon.
2-Equal Weight
- The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12- monthinvestment horizon.
3-Underweight
- The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12- monthinvestment horizon.
RS-Rating Suspended
- The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or tocomply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Barclays Capital is acting in an advisory capacity in amerger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Sector View1-Positive
- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral
- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative
- sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Rating Distribution
To see the distribution of Barclays Capital’s ratings, together with the percentage of subject companies in each rating category that are banking clients of the firm please go to
www.lehman.com/disclosures
.
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