NPR

Energy Supplies And Prices Have Grown More Unpredictable

Energy analysts are getting worse at predicting how much oil and gas will come out of the ground in the future, a new study finds.

A lot of smart people spend a lot of time trying to predict how much oil and gas is going to come out of the ground in the future.

Lately, they've been getting it wrong.

"Unpredictability, measured as the frequency of extreme errors in ... projections, has increased in the most recent decade," according to an unusual by a team at Carnegie Mellon

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