NPR

An Encouraging Prediction About The Ebola Outbreak

A researcher has used data to create a model to forecast the number of new cases in the weeks ahead. Although he does admit that models have their limits.
Nurses working with the World Health Organization prepare to administer Ebola vaccines in Mbandaka, a town in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Source: Junior D. Kannah

When an Ebola outbreak was declared in the Democratic Republic of Congo this spring, there were all kinds of predictions about how the epidemic would play out.

At first the outbreak was confined to a remote rural area, so the hope was it could be easily contained. There simply weren't a lot of people who could have come in contact with the infected individuals.

Then a case was identified in Mbandaka, a city of more than 1 million, raising concerns that this outbreak could echo the 2014 outbreak,

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