Bloomberg Businessweek

Recessions

An early warning system for downturns may be giving off mixed signals

Historically, the $15.4 trillion U.S. Treasury market has offered one of the most reliable barometers for the health of the American economy. Investors are particularly fixated on what’s known as the yield curve, which depicts the yields on government debt of different maturities at a given point in time.

The curve usually

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