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The Black Swan
Written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrated by David Chandler
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Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Not all swans are white, and not all events-no matter what the experts think-are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. "[Taleb] administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting."-Booklist
Book Actions
Start ListeningBook Information
The Black Swan
Written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrated by David Chandler
Description
Maverick thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb had an illustrious career on Wall Street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. Not all swans are white, and not all events-no matter what the experts think-are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. "[Taleb] administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting."-Booklist
About the author
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Reviews
Taleb is great
Rating: 4Catastrophe, chaos, and probability in complex process perception. Assuming more order exists in chaos than 'order'
Rating: 3Mr. Taleb is a statistician by trade and while you may think this would made the book a difficult read if you aren't into that kind of thing I think you would be wrong. This book could be described as a 'black swan' in the way it appeals unexpectedly to those outside the world of economics, politics, finance and risk analysis. Essentially, "black swans" are events which take place that are outside of our expectations. They are ‘outliers’; they are considered unpredictable and unpreventable and bring with them a major shift in attitudes, core beliefs and/or massive consequences. Even though we most times think we are well informed and prepared these events show us our folly. I quite enjoyed this book and felt that I learned a lot about the way that we (humans) think and just how far off base we sometimes are. Remember, ANYTHING is possible - no matter how improbable.
Rating: 4Excellent discussion of uncertain risks and the default to focus on what we know rather than what we don't.
Rating: 4This book has changed the way I view the world.
Rating: 5
Taleb, saving is from stupidity again by highlighting our cognitive biases and what to do
Rating: 5
Personally, I think it’s the best os the trilogy
Rating: 5I think there are a lot of valuable lessons in this book. Since it talks about random and unexpected events, I'd not say it can change our lives too much since we can't anticipate an event. That said it makes the reader aware of the impact of the unexpected and rare events and this alone can improve your outlook on life. For example, you can now filter news stories and understand that acts of terrorism or violence are reported precisely because they aren't common place. Keep that in mind next time there the media try to tell you to be terrified of something.
Rating: 5it’s amazing to see how much has been said by people that don't have a clue and take shortcuts whenever its necessary to prove their ideas. Nassin Taleb gave us a simple perspective how much more interesting nature and reality is, when not conform to models accepted entirely on the premises of saving the work of dealing with them.
Rating: 5
I'm not sure if it's Taleb's writing or the narrator's performance that gives out an aura of arrogance. I think it's the latter. Great ideas, yet painfully annoying to listen to.
Rating: 3
The philosophical rumination about causality and chaos theory throughout the pages of this audiobook made for a useful bedtime story during the global coronavirus crisis of 2020. The author gave no answers to the cause of major events such as the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963 or 9/11 in 2001. So we are left with the feeling that such major events that can change the course of human history, are simply Black Swans. This philosophical mindset could be useful, for example, in undermining the certainty of naive individuals who equate computer modeling results of future global surface temperature, with reality. For how can these computer models forecast a Black Swan event?
Rating: 5A must read Nassim is a wise man! A+++++
All his books BTW
Rating: 5All his books BTW
This book will make you Think out of the box.
Rating: 5From the beginning, I could tell this book was going to be tough going. I’ve read several similar books attacking conventional wisdom, including Freakonomics (right before starting this project) and Wrong (reviewed here). Of the three, this book was by far the least conversational and most intellectual (ie most difficult to read!). The book took a lot of time to make a few simple points. There were also many chapters that started with anecdotes not clearly related to the subject of the book. This gives the disorienting sensation of having walked into a room and realizing you don’t remember why you decided to head to that room in the first place!
Read the rest here...
Rating: 2Read the rest here...
This was my food for thought listening while I walked my dog and looked at nature. I'm strongly considering going back to school and becoming a botanist or mycologist and have been bracing myself for another round of struggles with my strong intuitive mistrust of statistics and experimental design (this I'm contemplating would not be my first professional science rodeo) and "the Gaussian"/Platonist reliance on simplification and organization. Taleb gave eloquent voice and rigor to my nagging doubts, which I'm not often able to articulate when confronted by, say, a bank of academic authority figures. I think I'm going to wind up cherishing this book almost like a talisman against the pressure I'm anticipating 8)
Rating: 4Mind blown! - will definitely have to read this again! - This book has so many layers to it!!
Rating: 5
Great book, so rich with ideas and thinking elements. listening to it is good, but I think a second read will be need to get the most of it.
Rating: 5Changed my life by introducing me to probabilistic thinking. Taleb has a habit of talking too much and parts of the book are a chore to get through, but the message is superb.
Rating: 5There is no doubt that Nassim Taleb is smart. The idea of the book, and the first couple of pages, were very interesting, and I think the thoughts behind the book were fine.
Taleb explains and analyze a lot of different events in this book, using his "Black Swan Theory" (The idea that everything is unpredictable). He talks about unpredictable forces in war and life, and especially writes quite a bit about 9/11, and the unpredictable things that caused 9/11 (or made 9/11 not as bad as it could have been)
Unfortunately, this book is way way way too long. I struggled through it, and almost gave up multiple times. Most of this book could have been cooked down a lot, maybe removing 2-300 pages. In that case I would probably have loved it. In this case, I don't feel like giving it more than 2 stars. Because it was okay. But I will have forgotten 95% of this book before tomorrow, and that is a shame.
Rating: 2Taleb explains and analyze a lot of different events in this book, using his "Black Swan Theory" (The idea that everything is unpredictable). He talks about unpredictable forces in war and life, and especially writes quite a bit about 9/11, and the unpredictable things that caused 9/11 (or made 9/11 not as bad as it could have been)
Unfortunately, this book is way way way too long. I struggled through it, and almost gave up multiple times. Most of this book could have been cooked down a lot, maybe removing 2-300 pages. In that case I would probably have loved it. In this case, I don't feel like giving it more than 2 stars. Because it was okay. But I will have forgotten 95% of this book before tomorrow, and that is a shame.
The author wants us to know that he is well-connected, went to some very fancy schools, and, at least at one point, was making a whole lot of money.He also has a point, but is a little too convinced that his thinking is novel. I've read so many books that point out that the success or failure of a corporation may not have too much to do with its CEO. Taleb is not the first to think of that, but he seems to think he is.His writing is full of cheap shots which ceaselessly undermine and distract from the points he is trying to make.And I'm not sure that prostitutes generally get paid by the hour, they do what is essentially piecework."The Drunkards Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives" is not nearly as egotistical and has much the same points to make. I think Mlodinow probably never had the income that Taleb had when he was really raking it in, though.What is novel in this book is his discussion of prior thinkers, for instance his mention of Cicero. The fact that he makes up half the people he talks about is not really that useful.He comes across as a bit lazy, more of a ranconteur than a serious author.Of course, the book "The Black Swan" itself qualifies as a black swan in the sense of the author.
Rating: 2I think that the main reason why I even started reading this book was because I thought it would be more interesting than it actually was. Not to say that it was terrible...it just wasn't what I thought it would be. Taleb comes off at a little presumptuous sometimes...actually, all the time.
There is a main point to the entire book, and it's the fact that life is unpredictable. He reiterates this same point in different parts of his book, with some examples drier than others. I actually found it to be more interesting the more I read, but some parts were just completely over my head, such as the Gaussian framework, or stuff that dealt with the bell curve. To his credit, he does tell the reader that certain chapters can be skipped over if one doesn't really know or care for some of the hard facts.
Anyway, I'd recommend this book for those that are more interested in statistics, analyzing (political analysts, financial analysts, etc.), philosophers, and more simply because I want to know what your opinion on his writing would be.
Rating: 2There is a main point to the entire book, and it's the fact that life is unpredictable. He reiterates this same point in different parts of his book, with some examples drier than others. I actually found it to be more interesting the more I read, but some parts were just completely over my head, such as the Gaussian framework, or stuff that dealt with the bell curve. To his credit, he does tell the reader that certain chapters can be skipped over if one doesn't really know or care for some of the hard facts.
Anyway, I'd recommend this book for those that are more interested in statistics, analyzing (political analysts, financial analysts, etc.), philosophers, and more simply because I want to know what your opinion on his writing would be.
An enormously huge book to make a point that should not have taken this many pages to make. Over and over again. It was a good book but man, oh, man... did this guy get paid by the page?
Rating: 3Second edition: contains Postscript essay. This deserves a fuller review, but I'll keep it brief because it's taken me a long time to actually reach the end of the book and some of the detail is lost. And there lies part of the problem, because this book started out as a five-star work because of the quality of the writing and the impact of the message but drifted down in my estimation the further I progressed. I think it was just the repetition of the message that wore me down, because at the end of each of the four parts I was considering knocking half-a-star off my final evaluation. In the end, the Postscript essay NNT (yep, that's how he refers to himself) added in the revised edition pulls it back to make a solid four-star evaluation. So, here's a self-confident and erudite chap pulling down the walls of the economic establishment. Or at least trying to, because the overly self-confident and nowhere near as erudite members of that establishment just carry on blithely ignorant of the message about the Black Swan event ('all swans are white' until you actually travel to the southern hemisphere and expose that fallacy) that lurks around the corner if you put your trust in economic models. And the message is that stark - all economic models, not just some. I recently saw NNT on television (Newsnight, BBC2) where he moderated that somewhat by saying models can be effective at the micro level, but break down at the macro level. He convinced me; but that was pushing at an open door. I've designed a computer system to support money market traders, and the rules I was given convinced me it's just the same as a casino. Except the '0' (and '00' for those in some locations) mean that you don't just lose your stake but your whole wad. Read it, then, but I'll quite understand if you abandon the attempt part way through because of the arrogance on display. The second edition with the additional essay saved it for me, so please use that by preference. Note that it will be your loss if you don't stay the course.
Rating: 4The basic premise that we are ruled by black swans, highly improbable things we can't predict, was interesting. However, the author was full of himself and it was VERY repetitive.
Rating: 3What you don't know is far more relevant than what you do know. The books you haven't read yet are more valuable than the ones you have read.What we do know allows us to speculate and create forecasts about the future. What we don't know—the black swan—renders our patterns meaningless.This truth comes painfully alive in Taleb's graph of a turkey's life. Every day the turkey receives food from the farmer and grows in size. Extrapolating from what the turkey knows suggests a rosy future for the bird. Thanksgiving dinner is the turkey's black swan.Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a unique author. He is bluntly irreverent, with the sort of disdain for common opinion only Žižek could match! This book is equal parts scientific analysis on logical fallacies and philosophical reflection on the role of randomness in life. Taleb's prose is at the same time dense and page-turning.The Black Swan will help you live well in a life where highly improbable events happen.
Rating: 5This is a fascinating, important book of interest to anyone who has entrusted money in the hands of traders. It should also be required reading for any student of economics or anyone who is planning a career in finance. The book is a tough read, but if you get past the first third it becomes easier as Taleb (slowly) gets to his point about how the bell-curve is applied in situations where it is not appropriate.
Rating: 4An interesting point of view from someone who wrote about and predicted the problems with the housing/banking markets back before they actually happened. I didn't know the book would deal so much with finance, but I liked that the author always got right to his point.
Rating: 3Taleb offers vital insights for the reader on decision making, predictions, financial thinking, and everyday life. The Black Swan is a perfect gift for the high school graduate, along with Antifragile and Scott Adams’ How to Fail at Everything and Still Win Big. The earlier in life you read it the greater impact it will have on your future, but never too late to get started.
Rating: 5This is an important book, one that could change your way of thinking.The premise is quite basic: reality isn't modeled well by the Gaussian curve, and this is a difference that makes a difference. I think the argument is solid, too.However, I found the writing style very irritating. The author is constantly insulting everybody that doesn't get his point right away, and as it's a point that is in direct opposition to many things we have been taught, that means almost everyone, including the reader. It's no fun reading a book that constantly scolds you for not getting it yet.That said, do read this book, if you can stand it.
Rating: 5An interesting and thought-provoking book.But it's far too long and repetitive, and the author lets his ego show through a bit too much and sometimes appears arrogant.
Rating: 4