I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and...view moreI am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice.
Years ago I did graduate work in physics (all but dissertation) so I strongly believe in analysis, objective facts, and rational decisions based on hard data. I currently live in Texas with my wife. Previously, I spent 20 years in Barrow, Alaska, the northernmost community in the United States, 330 miles north of the Arctic Circle.
There are many parallels between surviving in the arctic and investing for substantial gains in today’s market. For example:
- Preparation for surviving arctic weather is critical, just as preparation is essential when investing.
- There is little room for delusional thinking when you are subjected to a 40 degrees below zero blizzard while facing 30 mph of wind. Similarly, dangerous markets will punish delusional thinking.
- There is much to learn about survival in the arctic, considerably more than just "wear more clothes." Markets appear less complicated and easier to understand than they actually are. Underestimating either arctic conditions or the complexity of markets can be deadly.
- Temperatures in the arctic gradually move from dreadfully cold to mildly warm. Markets seem chaotic in the short term but gradually move up and down in long cycles.
- One can experience the "midnight sun" for several months in the arctic. During that time, it seems like the sun will last forever. It does not, and several months later you will live through two months of darkness. Bull markets feel like they will rally forever. They do not and are followed by bear markets, regardless of what the Wall Street cheerleaders wish us to believe.view less