A Short Guide to Marketing Model Alignment & Design: Advanced Topics in Goal Alignment - Model Formulation
By David Young
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About this ebook
David Young
David Young is a barrister at Red Lion Chambers, London. He is a specialist defence Counsel with a wide ranging practice. David has appeared in many high profile trials, and has particular expertise in cases involving terrorism, murder, organised crime and serious fraud.
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A Short Guide to Marketing Model Alignment & Design - David Young
A Short Guide to Marketing Model Alignment & Design
Copyright © 2017 by David Young.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner, distributed in any form, or stored in a database or retrieval system without the prior written consent of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.
Printed in the United States of America.
ISBN: 978-1-54391-556-3
Contents
Acknowledgements
How this book is different from other Marketing
Modeling books and what you can get from it
1. Sources of Model Alignment Error
2. Objective Definition
Model Goal Definition
Accuracy vs. Precision
2 Key Modeling Points
Statistical Precision – Judgmental Accuracy
Trading Accuracy for Precision
Dependent Definitions: Exacting versus General
Exacting Definitions
Examples of Problematic Dependents Lacking Precision:
How exact is exact enough?
General, or Less, Goal Congruent Definitions
Sparse Dependent Problem
Noisy Dependent Problem
3. Information Adequacy Assessment
How much data is enough?
Response Rates
Noteworthy Sizing Implications
Data Requirements Vary by Coefficient
Measuring Small Impacts
Small Media Can’t be Accurately Measured Unless Big Effects are Controlled
Measuring Small Impacts in Practice
Measuring Long Slow Impacts
Measuring Long Slow Impacts in Practice
Bounding Trend Parameters
Proportional Relationships
Industry Volume
Distribution
Market Size
Logically Nested Factors
Special Case: Long Term Changes to Brand Value
Evolutionary Patterns
BASS Diffusion Model
Measuring Short Unique Impacts
Event Uniqueness
Preplanned Measurement
Post Event Measurement
Metric Comparability
Incremental Impact
Proper Experimental Design for Proper In-Market Tests – A Real-World Case
4. Planning for Future Analytics
Case Study: Modeling Brand Awareness
Awareness Modeling Challenges:
Challenge 1: Modeling Smooth Lines
Challenge 2: Survey Sampling Error
Challenge 3: Expected Changes Due to Many Causal Variables
Challenge 4: Conceptual Confusion with Awareness, Preference, Choice, and Equity
Recommended Approaches:
Improving the Dependent
Larger surveys
Better Define Your Goals
Measure Where the Response is
Suggested Advantages
A last but important thought on brand trackers
Conclusion
Low Cost Alternative: GQV Share
About the Author
Acknowledgements
In the editing and review of this book I asked several Marketing, Modeling, and Business friends and professionals to offer their feedback and recommendations. While all remaining errors, faults of logic, and half-baked ideas are of my own invention, I’d like to thank the many people whom donated their time and talents to contribute to this work. They are all professionals whose opinions I value and to whom I owe a debt of gratitude.
Karl Lendenman
Natalie Robb
Panos Ventikos
Randy Bartlett
Gurkan Sener
Chris Checco
Chris Cornell
Damian Fernandez
Michael Wolfe
Randy Guse
Sean Gonzalez
Jack Yang
How this book is different from other Marketing
Modeling books and what you can get from it
This book integrates Marketing and Statistical concepts and is written for Marketing Modelers, Model Users, and Purchasers of marketing models.
Most books on Marketing Modeling are slightly modified statistical texts.
If you’re looking for a book that talks about the logic of marketing
and the design of statistical models
in an integrated way to increase model accuracy and improve business profits, then this book was written for you.
Marketing Models are neither just Statistics nor just Marketing, but a synthesis of the information sources creating a cohesive predictive system, and the broader you cast your net for useful information the better your models will be.
Nevertheless, anyone who’s worked around Marketing Models at all will have heard people talk about modifying models for statistical reasons
or modifying them for business reasons
as though the two sets of criteria are from Mars and Venus, respectively. In this book, I try to help readers develop a deeper understanding of the reasoning behind both sets of rules to put themselves in a better position to weigh the value of all evidence and define the most applicable business goals for their models to address. And after defining those goals, design the best models for achieving them.
Too often, modeling objectives are defined quickly and without much thought. In many cases, standard statistical techniques are pulled from the tool box
and applied without aim. Oftentimes the models resulting from that process are reasonable, although typically not optimal. Other times they’re clearly lacking, however the business users (and sometimes competent modelers) are fooled by the façade of science surrounding the modeling process. Hence, criticism is often deflected and