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“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman

In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com


From the Trade Paperback edition.
Published: Doubleday an imprint of Random House Publishing Group on
ISBN: 9780385522946
List price: $12.99
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For nearly 1 year, I nibbled on this book. It's a difficult listen; in order to absorb the details, I listened to part two in small swabs. While some may criticize the author's predictions, I enjoyed the geopolitical crystal ball...in small doses.more
This book was an interesting, if speculative journey into the possibilities of the future over the next hundred years. The author takes analysis of past trends and makes some interesting theories around the future. Who knows if there will be any truth to these predictions but it was an interesting read on the environmental and political environment.more
Even though I found this book well founded in history analysis and with solid deduction processes I can't help but to feel dissapointed. The American centrism of the author's logic reminds me of those U.S. people who have never been out of the country, and can't conceive that anything important is going on out there.Friedman asumes that he can compare in the same terms cultures with six thousand years of history to cultures a couple of hundred years old.Also, the absolute belief of the author in the U.S. technological superiotity astounds me. Compared with other developed countries, the U.S. has definitely been lacking in technology development in different areas (take clean energy production, for instance). And Friedman believes that this is going to change because of the U.S. war capabilities? He might find out that other countries were busy getting ahead during peace time....more
I read quite a bit of material from George Friedman’s articles from his intelligence report and without having done so, I probably would not have read this book in the first place. A geopolitical forecast for the next 100 years seems a futile attempt even for a person with too much time on their hands. He was very forthright in saying that the details were not the focus of this book and that the scope was to provide ideas about how the world might shape itself over the coming century.What impressed me the most about this book was not anything to do with what was written in it; rather that anyone who saw me reading this book would press me for the very details that were not important to what Friedman had in mind. Mostly people were looking to validate their own premonitions about what they think will happen in the future. So this book to them was the magic eight ball. To me this book was an open ended argument that relied on history and current affairs to give an idea of what could happen over the next century. Friedman did a good job of combining economic, social, and political circumstances to show what could evolve along with technology in different parts of the world.I should say that I agree with him 100% about the Russians. This is how I came across his intelligence report through his company Stratfor, and subsequently to this book. Time will tell how much of the details he gets right, and if the story unfolds in the way he tells it. I suspect that even if the details of this book are right on, future generations will not fall back on it as prophecy or use it to change course. In fact, there are no answers in this book, just premonitions, which makes it difficult to give this book any strong value. It was an interesting read though.more
While Friedman has a birds-eye view of present-day circumstances, the fact remains that the farther into the future Friedman travels with his crystal ball, the more speculative and questionable his outlook becomes. I am surprised that Friedman has not collaborated with one or more novelists, as the genre of futuristic science fiction would probably be a more effective vehicle for conveying his more long-range speculations.more
Interesting read. Wondering how accurate he is. Time will tell.more
In what might initially be considered an act of hubris the author in this book actually makes some sense in describing scenarios for the near future. Using forecasting models based on history and human tendencies within the context of current research and a pending worldwide population reduction, geopolitics for the 21st century is explored and predictions are made for challenges to U.S. hegemony. Running counter to the prevailing thought of some, the author believes America is still in its ascendency as the dominant world power. However, challenges will come through a mid-century war (Turkey/Japan) and an end of the century borderland struggle with Mexico. In between, technological advances in space and energy will change the way war is waged and spark the global economy. Normally not the type of book I read, nonetheless I found this intriguing. Before I succumbed to cynicism, I considered all the changes (technology to black swans) that occurred from 1900-1999. From this perspective, many of the things the author discusses seem at least plausible.more
It is not often I read non-fiction but this one grabbed my attention. It looks at how the world will develop in the 21st century. Which nation becomes stronger -which wars are fought - how the world will develop past the constraints of the earth.Looking at the past the author tries to predict what will happen within the coming century. A few basics we will see Russia grow and fall back - we will see Turkey become a nation to be reckoned with. But the one thing that was a running theme through the whole book was that the US would succeed and still be the strongest, biggest and successful nation still.Maybe this is true but to be honest by the end of the book it started to sound more like propaganda than a prediction.more
How do you forecast the future of the world? Expect the unexpected. What shape will warfare take? Where will power arise as the century unfolds? What will be the role of China, the Muslim countries, Russia? Friedman takes a stab at predictions that are worth considering.more
Back in the day I liked to read Friedman's Stratfor site to get a contrarian response to the apogee of globalist/"end of history" thinking, though I never forgot that he was the gentleman who blessed us with that hundred-percent wrong futurist polemic "The Coming War With Japan." Flash forward a generation and what do you have; a book where Friedman forecasts the coming war with...wait for it...Japan! In alliance with Turkey!To be fair, Friedman has learned some lessons since the early 90s, and this book is mostly about demographics, technology, and the unchanging factors of geopolitics. This is not to mention that the author hedges his bets just a little bit. What really takes me aback is that Friedman has come up with this bizarre typology as a cultural tool of analysis, where he has a spectrum running from "barbarism" through "civilization" and ending up at "decadence." The first category essentially meaning being unthinkingly willing to fight, the second meaning showing conscious restraint, the last being unwilling to fight for one's values and interests. This throwback to organicist thinking about society seems mostly to exist to reassure American readers we still have some time in the sun left to us (as our culture is only adolescent according to Friedman), while giving Friedman an easy out to justify throwing Western Europe on the trash heap of history. Right.This is not to mention that if we are really going to have confrontations with Russia and China by 2020, I somehow doubt that the leaders of those two states are going to liquidate themselves as supinely as Friedman imagines. Call this a think piece bloated to short book size, and lacking a bibliography and an index!I mostly read this book for amusement and so should you.more
An interesting look at the geopolitics of the 21st century. It’s of more interest as a starting point for thinking about geopolitical issues rather than as a prediction for which you can expect any accuracy. Friedman barely mentions India, for instance, which with a population of a billion is going to be significant on the world stage even without factoring in issues of climate change. (Friedman states in the epilogue that he isn’t dealing with climate change in his analysis, though he thinks it’s real; given that rising sea levels will threaten Bangladesh just when India’s glacier-fed rivers are drying up, I think he’s missing a big geopolitical faultline.)He also makes no allowance for disruptive technological change; his idea of a space-based military infrastructure overseen by manned space stations in geosynchronous orbit might have made sense back when Arthur Clarke was envisioning manned communications satellites, but it looks quaint and outdated in 2009. My power company just signed a contract for space solar power, which Friedman is anticipating will take another 40 years to take off; it’s as if he didn’t notice the Ansari X Prize has already been awarded and that upcoming investment in space will be through private industry, not massive government projects.The book is worthwhile for the thoughts it can provoke, but don’t go rearranging your 401k investments based on its predictions.more
George Friedman's company, STRATFOR, consistently releases excellent analysis of world events and global trends, and I thought his previous work, "America's Secret War," continued his trend of thought provoking inquiry. A book based on predicting the next 100 years of history is ambitious and Friedman' analysis is interesting. He challenges the reader to ignore common sense and instead view countries through their constraints and potential responses. From these tools he extrapolates a vivid imagining of the future's potential history. His scenario plays upon the continued dominance of the United States and its contention with regional powers such as Japan, Poland, and Turkey. Although it is speculation, Friedman bases his prediction on the geopolitical priorities of countries. I especially liked his breakdown of U.S. priorities, and his recounting of U.S. history into 50 year cycles of economic and political development. His excursion on the future of war and its technology is fantastical at times, but it serves as a reminder of how military planners think, which was new to me. Friedman grounds many of his speculations in realistic assumptions about how nation states may act, and presents a very 'big-picture' view of the world.Friedman's analysis and focus on the 'big picture' however leaves out many potential variables. I enjoyed his discussions on geography and demographics, but India only warranted a short paragraph in the middle of the book. Africa is not mentioned to which I must assume he believes it may be inconsequential, which reflects current foreign policy biases. Furthermore, given the rise of non-state actors and transnational issues such as organised crime, disease, multi-lateralism, etc. as policy priorities, it would have been nice to see them addressed. Friedman believes they may not be in the scope of his predictions which look at long term motivations, but these, including leadership, have the potential to change the course of history in a country. Climate change was address as an afterthought in the final two pages of the book, and Friedman states that technology will be the deciding factor in solving the issue. Friedman focuses on the nation-state and realism is his under-lying philosophy.This of course discounts other constructivist and neo-liberal view points of the world which may have informed the reader on the variety of possibilities in the international arena. The book is interesting, but Friedman's narrow take on how history is being made left me feeling that he left out important ingredients that could have influenced his predictions.more
It is a great effort to predict what would be the course of the next 100 years, as the author says, it is possible to see the tendencies from actual era, and how things will evolve, shaping possible future events, it is not possible to forecast the details, just the process to understand what is happening today is worth to read this book.more
Read all 17 reviews

Reviews

For nearly 1 year, I nibbled on this book. It's a difficult listen; in order to absorb the details, I listened to part two in small swabs. While some may criticize the author's predictions, I enjoyed the geopolitical crystal ball...in small doses.more
This book was an interesting, if speculative journey into the possibilities of the future over the next hundred years. The author takes analysis of past trends and makes some interesting theories around the future. Who knows if there will be any truth to these predictions but it was an interesting read on the environmental and political environment.more
Even though I found this book well founded in history analysis and with solid deduction processes I can't help but to feel dissapointed. The American centrism of the author's logic reminds me of those U.S. people who have never been out of the country, and can't conceive that anything important is going on out there.Friedman asumes that he can compare in the same terms cultures with six thousand years of history to cultures a couple of hundred years old.Also, the absolute belief of the author in the U.S. technological superiotity astounds me. Compared with other developed countries, the U.S. has definitely been lacking in technology development in different areas (take clean energy production, for instance). And Friedman believes that this is going to change because of the U.S. war capabilities? He might find out that other countries were busy getting ahead during peace time....more
I read quite a bit of material from George Friedman’s articles from his intelligence report and without having done so, I probably would not have read this book in the first place. A geopolitical forecast for the next 100 years seems a futile attempt even for a person with too much time on their hands. He was very forthright in saying that the details were not the focus of this book and that the scope was to provide ideas about how the world might shape itself over the coming century.What impressed me the most about this book was not anything to do with what was written in it; rather that anyone who saw me reading this book would press me for the very details that were not important to what Friedman had in mind. Mostly people were looking to validate their own premonitions about what they think will happen in the future. So this book to them was the magic eight ball. To me this book was an open ended argument that relied on history and current affairs to give an idea of what could happen over the next century. Friedman did a good job of combining economic, social, and political circumstances to show what could evolve along with technology in different parts of the world.I should say that I agree with him 100% about the Russians. This is how I came across his intelligence report through his company Stratfor, and subsequently to this book. Time will tell how much of the details he gets right, and if the story unfolds in the way he tells it. I suspect that even if the details of this book are right on, future generations will not fall back on it as prophecy or use it to change course. In fact, there are no answers in this book, just premonitions, which makes it difficult to give this book any strong value. It was an interesting read though.more
While Friedman has a birds-eye view of present-day circumstances, the fact remains that the farther into the future Friedman travels with his crystal ball, the more speculative and questionable his outlook becomes. I am surprised that Friedman has not collaborated with one or more novelists, as the genre of futuristic science fiction would probably be a more effective vehicle for conveying his more long-range speculations.more
Interesting read. Wondering how accurate he is. Time will tell.more
In what might initially be considered an act of hubris the author in this book actually makes some sense in describing scenarios for the near future. Using forecasting models based on history and human tendencies within the context of current research and a pending worldwide population reduction, geopolitics for the 21st century is explored and predictions are made for challenges to U.S. hegemony. Running counter to the prevailing thought of some, the author believes America is still in its ascendency as the dominant world power. However, challenges will come through a mid-century war (Turkey/Japan) and an end of the century borderland struggle with Mexico. In between, technological advances in space and energy will change the way war is waged and spark the global economy. Normally not the type of book I read, nonetheless I found this intriguing. Before I succumbed to cynicism, I considered all the changes (technology to black swans) that occurred from 1900-1999. From this perspective, many of the things the author discusses seem at least plausible.more
It is not often I read non-fiction but this one grabbed my attention. It looks at how the world will develop in the 21st century. Which nation becomes stronger -which wars are fought - how the world will develop past the constraints of the earth.Looking at the past the author tries to predict what will happen within the coming century. A few basics we will see Russia grow and fall back - we will see Turkey become a nation to be reckoned with. But the one thing that was a running theme through the whole book was that the US would succeed and still be the strongest, biggest and successful nation still.Maybe this is true but to be honest by the end of the book it started to sound more like propaganda than a prediction.more
How do you forecast the future of the world? Expect the unexpected. What shape will warfare take? Where will power arise as the century unfolds? What will be the role of China, the Muslim countries, Russia? Friedman takes a stab at predictions that are worth considering.more
Back in the day I liked to read Friedman's Stratfor site to get a contrarian response to the apogee of globalist/"end of history" thinking, though I never forgot that he was the gentleman who blessed us with that hundred-percent wrong futurist polemic "The Coming War With Japan." Flash forward a generation and what do you have; a book where Friedman forecasts the coming war with...wait for it...Japan! In alliance with Turkey!To be fair, Friedman has learned some lessons since the early 90s, and this book is mostly about demographics, technology, and the unchanging factors of geopolitics. This is not to mention that the author hedges his bets just a little bit. What really takes me aback is that Friedman has come up with this bizarre typology as a cultural tool of analysis, where he has a spectrum running from "barbarism" through "civilization" and ending up at "decadence." The first category essentially meaning being unthinkingly willing to fight, the second meaning showing conscious restraint, the last being unwilling to fight for one's values and interests. This throwback to organicist thinking about society seems mostly to exist to reassure American readers we still have some time in the sun left to us (as our culture is only adolescent according to Friedman), while giving Friedman an easy out to justify throwing Western Europe on the trash heap of history. Right.This is not to mention that if we are really going to have confrontations with Russia and China by 2020, I somehow doubt that the leaders of those two states are going to liquidate themselves as supinely as Friedman imagines. Call this a think piece bloated to short book size, and lacking a bibliography and an index!I mostly read this book for amusement and so should you.more
An interesting look at the geopolitics of the 21st century. It’s of more interest as a starting point for thinking about geopolitical issues rather than as a prediction for which you can expect any accuracy. Friedman barely mentions India, for instance, which with a population of a billion is going to be significant on the world stage even without factoring in issues of climate change. (Friedman states in the epilogue that he isn’t dealing with climate change in his analysis, though he thinks it’s real; given that rising sea levels will threaten Bangladesh just when India’s glacier-fed rivers are drying up, I think he’s missing a big geopolitical faultline.)He also makes no allowance for disruptive technological change; his idea of a space-based military infrastructure overseen by manned space stations in geosynchronous orbit might have made sense back when Arthur Clarke was envisioning manned communications satellites, but it looks quaint and outdated in 2009. My power company just signed a contract for space solar power, which Friedman is anticipating will take another 40 years to take off; it’s as if he didn’t notice the Ansari X Prize has already been awarded and that upcoming investment in space will be through private industry, not massive government projects.The book is worthwhile for the thoughts it can provoke, but don’t go rearranging your 401k investments based on its predictions.more
George Friedman's company, STRATFOR, consistently releases excellent analysis of world events and global trends, and I thought his previous work, "America's Secret War," continued his trend of thought provoking inquiry. A book based on predicting the next 100 years of history is ambitious and Friedman' analysis is interesting. He challenges the reader to ignore common sense and instead view countries through their constraints and potential responses. From these tools he extrapolates a vivid imagining of the future's potential history. His scenario plays upon the continued dominance of the United States and its contention with regional powers such as Japan, Poland, and Turkey. Although it is speculation, Friedman bases his prediction on the geopolitical priorities of countries. I especially liked his breakdown of U.S. priorities, and his recounting of U.S. history into 50 year cycles of economic and political development. His excursion on the future of war and its technology is fantastical at times, but it serves as a reminder of how military planners think, which was new to me. Friedman grounds many of his speculations in realistic assumptions about how nation states may act, and presents a very 'big-picture' view of the world.Friedman's analysis and focus on the 'big picture' however leaves out many potential variables. I enjoyed his discussions on geography and demographics, but India only warranted a short paragraph in the middle of the book. Africa is not mentioned to which I must assume he believes it may be inconsequential, which reflects current foreign policy biases. Furthermore, given the rise of non-state actors and transnational issues such as organised crime, disease, multi-lateralism, etc. as policy priorities, it would have been nice to see them addressed. Friedman believes they may not be in the scope of his predictions which look at long term motivations, but these, including leadership, have the potential to change the course of history in a country. Climate change was address as an afterthought in the final two pages of the book, and Friedman states that technology will be the deciding factor in solving the issue. Friedman focuses on the nation-state and realism is his under-lying philosophy.This of course discounts other constructivist and neo-liberal view points of the world which may have informed the reader on the variety of possibilities in the international arena. The book is interesting, but Friedman's narrow take on how history is being made left me feeling that he left out important ingredients that could have influenced his predictions.more
It is a great effort to predict what would be the course of the next 100 years, as the author says, it is possible to see the tendencies from actual era, and how things will evolve, shaping possible future events, it is not possible to forecast the details, just the process to understand what is happening today is worth to read this book.more
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