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Elway Poll 072312-GovRace

Elway Poll 072312-GovRace

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©THE ELWAY POLL

07/23/12

23 JULY 2012

Inslee Takes Lead as McKenna Support Fades
This was never going to be easy for Rob McKenna. Long considered the front‐runner in the race for Governor, the Attorney General is trying to do what no Republican has done since 1980—get elected Governor of Washington state. About 1 in 5 of the state’s current voters were not yet born in 1980. After having led the race for the last year, McKenna trailed Democrat Jay Inslee by 43‐36% in The Elway Poll completed last night. The race had been tightening despite relatively little visible campaign activity. There has been one debate and both candidates recently went up with television spots, but there has not been enough public campaigning to explain so dramatic a shift. So what is going on? An Elway Poll from one year ago provides a clue and illustrates McKenna’s challenge. Voters were McKENNA v. INSLEE: FEB-JULY asked in our July 2011 survey whether they were INSLEE McKENNA inclined to vote for a “Conservative Republican, a Moderate Republican, a Moderate Democrat or a 28 21 JULY 22 43 36 Liberal Democrat” for governor to replace Christine Gregoire. In that survey 48% said they were in‐ clined to vote for the Democrat candidate and 36% JUNE 28 18 40 27 42 preferred the Republican. That is remarkably similar to the current survey. 20 FEB 28 McKenna led earlier this year, benefiting from 36 24 45 superior recognition and organization. He has been in statewide elected office for 8 years and prepar‐ GENERIC PREFERENCE 2011; REAL CHOICE 2012 ing for this race for years. As the campaign has become more visible, and McKENNA v INSLEE REP v DEM voters have become aware that there is a Democ‐ ratic and a Republican candidate, the race appears 48 to be returning to the default partisan position. 43 The pace lap is over. Let the race begin. 36 36 Most of the difference between last month’s 21 findings and these is accounted for by a collapse in 15 McKenna support among Independent voters. McKenna led among Independents by 42‐29% in JULY 2011 JULY 2012 June, but Inslee led Independents by 31‐29% this month. Meanwhile, the number of undecided Inde‐ pendents jumped from 29% last month to 40% this month. Since Independents are necessary to winning an election here, this volatility indicates a see‐saw bat‐ tle to November. Inslee is clearly benefiting from being the Democrat in the race. Compared to the 2011 survey, how‐ ever, he is still underperforming the generic Democrat. Both candidates have solidified their partisan base, although neither has completely locked their party down:  86% of Democrats intended to vote for Inslee, but only 59% were “definite” Inslee voters.;  88% of Republicans intended to vote for McKenna, but only 59% were “definite” McKenna voters. Whatever softness there may be now in the partisan support is unlikely to matter in November. Each is likely to receive around 90% of his party’s votes. That translates into an advantage for Inslee, since there are more Democrats than Republicans in Washington. In this survey 35% of respondents said they would register as a Democrat if party registration were required and 27% said Republican.
DE FI NI T E LY P ROB A B LY UNDE C P ROB A B LY DE FI NI T E LY

©Copying Not Permitted THE ELWAY POLL is intended for the exclusive use of its subscribers. The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of Elway Research, Inc.

Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.

©THE ELWAY POLL

07/23/12

Sample Profile
405 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed July 18-22, 2012 by live, professional interviewers. 12% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ±5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within ±5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. REGION Seattle ....................................................................... 11% King County (outside Seattle) ........................................... 21% Pierce + Kitsap Counties ........................................... 14% North Puget Sound (Snohomish to Whatcom) .................... 17% Western WA (Clallam to Clark)......................................... 18% Eastern WA ............................................................... 19% GENDER Male........................................................................... 50% Female................................................................. ......50% PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat ............................................................ .......35% Republican ......................................................... .......27% Independent........................................................ .......38% VOTE HISTORY (LAST 4 ELECTIONS) 0-2 Votes Cast .......................................................... 46% 3 Votes Cast ........................................................... 19% 4 Votes Cast ........................................................... 35% AGE 18-35 .................................................................. .......12% 36-50 .................................................................. .......20% 51-64 .................................................................. .......42% 65+...................................................................... .......23% EMPLOYMENT Self-employed..................................................... .......11% Private Sector ..................................................... .......24% Public Sector ...................................................... .......14% Not Employed ..................................................... .......10% Retired ................................................................ .......38% INCOME $25,000 or less ................................................... .......12% $25 to $50,000.................................................... .......17% $50 to $75,000.................................................... .......21% Over $75,000...................................................... .......30% No Answer ........................................................... ......20%

The Elway Poll
The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest supported entirely by subscribers.

Notable findings among voter categories:  Inslee in Seattle (57‐24%), King County outside Seattle (44‐36%), Pierce‐Kitsap (39‐34%), the North Sound (45‐29%);  McKenna led in Eastern Washington (47‐36%), and they were tied South and West of Puget Sound (42% each);  Inslee opened a 45‐35% among women (from 41‐39% a month ago), and he led and 41‐38% among men, after having trailed McKenna among men 40‐45% last month;  McKenna led among voters under 35 (41‐33%); Inslee led in all other age categories, including 46‐35% among voters 35‐64 and 41‐39% among voters over 65. This survey added two candidate attributes to those tested last month, and asked whether each was an advantage for either candidate:  Inslee had a“likeability” advantage over McKenna in (34% to 27%);  They were nearly even with regard to “political philosophy” (35% said that was an advantage for Inslee; 33% said McKenna). Voters last month gave McKenna an edge in ability to manage state government (33% vs. 27% for Inslee) and approach to improving the econ‐ omy (33‐30%). Inslee had the advantage on health care (35‐28%), environmental issues (36‐ 24%) and “issues important to women (35‐22%). The candidates were essentially even on educa‐ tion (31% Inslee; 30% McKenna). In summary, neither candidate has a perceived advantage on the critical issues of the economy, education nor political philosophy. McKenna has an edge when it comes to managing state govern‐ ment. Inslee is seen as more likeable and better on several secondary issues. This race has a long way to go.  WHICH CANDIDATE HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN...
McKENNA INSLEE

SUBSCRIPTION: An annual subscription is $250. PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each month,

space is reserved in the questionnaire to allow subscribers to ask proprietary questions. The fee for proprietary questions is $600 per question. You will receive the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within three days. month’s survey is available for $100.

Philosophy

33

-6
SMALL

-27
BIG

23
BIG

12
SMALL

35 34

CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables for any The Elway Poll
7 03 5 P a l at i n e N . Seattle, WA 98103 206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301 elway@elwayresearch.com Copying Not Permitted

Likeability

27

-8

-19

22

12

Of course, all candidates have their strong points and weak points. I read some characteristics, regardless of how you intend to vote tell me whether you personally consider that to be an Big Advantage for McKenna, a Small Advantage for McKenna , a Big Advantage for Inslee or a Small Advantage for Inslee. If you think neither one has an advantage or the issue is not important, just say that. The first one is… “Likeability”…”Political Philosophy.”

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