July 24, 2012 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe MANZANO STRATEGIES RE: NM GOVERNOR APPROVAL RATING (2012).

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 1,533 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on July 17, 2012, between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 2.5% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINES: Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the job performance of New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez? FAVORABLE: 59% UNFAVORABLE: UNDECIDED: 14% Margin of Error: 2.5% 1,533 Likely Voters ANALYSIS OF RESULTS Gov. Martinez’s approval was at 58% statewide when we last surveyed this question statewide in October, 2011. She currently stands at 59% in our latest survey of over 1,500 likely voting households Martinez’s approval appears to have taken a hit in the Northeastern Counties of the State which comprise State Senate District 7, of which she played a major role in the recent Republican primary, having endorsed the losing candidate in that race while playing a major public role and becoming a major factor in the race. Her approval rating in Curry County has dropped from 71% in October, 2011 to her current rating of 51% in our 27%

latest survey. The Governor’s approval rating has gone down in Harding County from 72% in October, to her current rating of 49%. In Quay County, Martinez’s approval rating has dropped from 60% to 51%. In Roosevelt County, her approval rating has stayed relatively constant, receiving a 57% approval rating last October, while receiving a 53% approval rating in our latest survey. In Union County, the Governor’s approval rating has slipped to 51% in our current survey, down from last October’s approval rate of 55%. Looking at the party breakouts in our survey, it appears the Governor’s numbers have received the most significant approval rating drops from Democratic likely voters in our survey. Martinez has held her ground among Republican and Independent voters in Northeast New Mexico. Comparing Last October’s ratings to this July among DEM voters: Her Curry DEM approval rating dropped from 72% to 15%. Her Quay DEM approval rating dropped from 50% to 33%. Her Union DEM approval rating dropped from 50% to 40%. Her Roosevelt DEM approval rating dropped from 67% to 50%. It seems to be clear that DEM voters paid attention to the hotly-contested GOP primary in State Senate #7 and the news publicity and campaign advertisements seemed to have an adverse affect on the Governor’s popularity among local Democratic voters. Attacks on the Governor’s campaign advisor (Jay McCleskey) probably also did not help bolster the Governor’s approval ratings among DEM likely voters in our survey. Governor Martinez has suffered a bit of a popularity hit by endorsing a losing candidate in a hotly contested primary which attracted major statewide coverage. Similar hits occurred to other major Republicans in past primaries: US Senator Pete Domenici publicly backed Heather Wilson in the 2008 Republican US Senate Primary . She lost to Steve Pearce. US Representative Joe Skeen publicly backed losing candidate Ed Tinsley in the 2002 GOP Primary to Steve Pearce. US Representative Manuel Lujan publicly backed his brother, Ed Lujan, who lost the 1988 GOP Primary to Steve Schiff. In other areas of New Mexico, Governor Martinez held her ground and/or improved her approval ratings among

likely voters: In Bernalillo County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 56% to 59%. In Dona Ana County, the Governor’s approval rating rose from 51% to 54%. In San Juan County, her approval rating rose from 70% to 91% among those likely voters in our survey. In Santa Fe County, Martinez’s approval rating rose from 26% to 39%. The Governor’s approval rating among Hispanic voters is the key major factor in her overall high approval rating.

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