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CA-24 DCCC IVR (July 2012)

CA-24 DCCC IVR (July 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Jul 26, 2012
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01/26/2014

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TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: CA-24 DCCC IVR Results DATE: July

26, 2012 Representative Lois Capps holds a commanding double-digit lead over challenger Abel Maldonado in California’s 24th district. Importantly, Capps has already crossed the 50 percent threshold of support among likely voters and their favorable impression of her stands in stark contrast to their negative rating of Maldonado. With a clear path to victory in front of her, the Democratic congresswoman is in a very strong position to win re-election in November. Even at such an early stage of the campaign, 51% of likely general election voters plan to support Capps in the race for US Congress. Maldonado trails by 11 percentage points (with 40% of the vote), and would have to win virtually all of the remaining 9% of the electorate that is undecided in order to make the race competitive. As an additional sign of strength, Capps’ base of support is more certain than that of her opponent, as 43% of voters will “definitely vote” for Capps in November while only 31% say the same about Maldonado—a 12-point difference. Congresswoman Capps is also well known and well liked by voters in the newly redrawn 24th congressional district (nearly two-thirds of which she had represented prior to redistricting). Capps is viewed favorably by a plurality of voters (48% favorable, 37% unfavorable), while the opposite holds true for the lesser-known Maldonado (34% favorable, 42% unfavorable). California’s 24th congressional district naturally tilts toward Democratic candidates. In 2008, Obama won 58% of the two-party vote district wide. (When voters in this survey were asked about the 2008 election, Obama led McCain by 16 points—very similar to the actual result.) In sum, Lois Capps’ early lead makes her a strong favorite to win re-election against Republican challenger Abel Maldonado in the November election.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 379 likely 2012 general election voters conducted July 23, 2012 in California’s new
24 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 5.0%.
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