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INTERESTED PARTIES PATRICK LANNE – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES REVIEW OF RECENT POLLING DATA JULY 31, 2012

As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently completed a poll of 400 likely voters in New York’s 19th Congressional District. The results are based on a sample reached via landlines and cell phones in which 34% of respondents identify as registered Republicans, 31% as registered Democrats and 34% other parties or unaffiliated. The survey was conducted on July 25-26, 2012 and has a margin of error plus/minus 4.9%. The purpose of this memo is to review the key findings of the poll. KEY FINDINGS 1. Chris Gibson opens in the lead. Congressman Gibson leads his Democratic challenger, Julian Schreibman, by seventeen points, 53%-36%, with 10% undecided. The voters who know Gibson best, the voters in the old 20th seat, are voting for him overwhelmingly, 59%32% and he leads 49%-40% in the remainder of the seat. Gibson’s reputation as an independent member of Congress shows in his early advantage with both unaffiliated voters (53%-30%), moderates (47%-38%), and women (50%-40%). 2. Republicans have the home-field advantage. While the 19th Congressional District is often labeled a “toss-up” seat, these poll results show an advantage for Republicans. On the generic congressional ballot, the Republican candidate bests the Democratic candidate, 43%-39%. 3. 19th District voters want a check and balance to Obama. By a 51%-42% margin, voters prefer a “Republican candidate who will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress” over a “Democratic candidate who will help Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress pass their agenda.”

The Bottom Line With a strong lead on the ballot, voters preferring a Republican candidate, and a clear contrast between the candidates on President Obama’s agenda, Congressman Gibson looks well-positioned for a re-election victory in 2012.

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