TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: CA-03 DCCC IVR Results DATE: July

30, 2012
Representative John Garamendi is in an excellent position to win reelection in California’s 3rd congressional district. Garamendi’s support eclipses the vital 50% support threshold among likely voters and he holds a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Kim Vann. Furthermore, Garamendi is well known and well liked across the new district despite having previously represented only a portion of it prior to redistricting. In the congressional horserace, Garamendi leads by 15 points (52% to 37%). Vann would have to win virtually all of the 11% of the electorate that remains undecided in order to make the race competitive. As an added sign of strength, Garamendi’s base of support is also more solid than Vann’s, as 43% of voters will “definitely vote” for Garamendi in November compared to just 29% who say the same about Vann—a 14-point difference. Garamendi further outpaces Vann in terms of name recognition and favorabilities. Even at this early stage of the campaign, nearly two-thirds (63%) of voters are familiar with Garamendi, and the ratio of voters who hold a favorable view of the Congressman compared to those who hold an unfavorable view is nearly 2:1 (41% favorable, 22% unfavorable). By comparison, only 37% of likely voters are familiar enough with Vann to form an opinion. The newly-drawn 3rd congressional district, which includes the cities of Fairfield and Vacaville, naturally leans toward Democratic candidates. Party registration favors Democrats by 8 percentage points (41% Democrats, 33% Republicans), and in 2008, Obama earned 57% of the two-party vote district wide. When voters in this survey were asked about how they voted in the 2008 election, Obama led McCain by 13 points—very similar to the actual result. In sum, Garamendi’s solid lead and positive name ID make him the clear favorite to win in the November.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 303 likely 2012 voters conducted July 25, 2012 in California’s new 3 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error is 5.6%.
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