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NY-18 GQR for House Majority PAC/SEIU (July 2012)

NY-18 GQR for House Majority PAC/SEIU (July 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 02, 2012
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10/23/2012

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August 2, 2012

New York’s 18th Congressional District
Status of the Contest for U.S. Congress
To: Interested Parties

From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
A new poll shows that first-term incumbent Nan Hayworth is in deep trouble, managing no better than a statistical tie against a relatively unknown (for now) challenger. In the initial trial heat, Hayworth receives 48 percent support, under the 50 percent threshold for a well-positioned incumbent, while Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney received 45 percent. Some of Hayworth’s issues stem from relatively low name recognition, but more consequentially, she struggles among voters who know her, posting miserable job ratings. After we provided survey respondents balanced, positive descriptions of the candidates, the Democrat surges to a 51 to 45 percent lead. This survey was prepared and supervised by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Calling took place July 25-29, 2012. These findings, based on a sample survey of 500 registered and likely November 2012 voters, are subject to a sampling error of +/- 4.38 at 95 percent confidence interval.

Key Findings
The district is competitive in partisan terms. Voters divide fairly evenly in the trial heat for President (49 percent Obama, 47 percent Romney) and in the number of selfascribed Democrats and Republicans (30 percent versus 31 percent). Nan Hayworth is not well known and not popular among voters who know her. Only 77 percent recognize the incumbent district-wide, but more troubling for her, nearly half (49 percent) rate her job performance negatively (19 percent poor, 30 percent just fair), and just 38 percent respond favorably. The challenger, not surprisingly at this point in the campaign and in this media market, has some work to do introducing himself (37 percent recognition for Sean Patrick Maloney). After we provide neutral and positive descriptions of the candidates, using words and language they use in their campaigns, Sean Patrick Maloney vaults to a 51 percent majority of the vote share.
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www.gqrr.com | www.greenbergresearch.com

New York CD-18: Status of the Contest

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Table 1: Maloney vs. Hayworth Vote after Positive and Neutral Descriptions

Conclusion
This is a moderate, suburban district and Nan Hayworth’s performance leaves her out of touch with average voters in the 18th District. As more and more voters recognize these facts, her vulnerability will only grow.

2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved.

August, 2012

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