An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour in Mixed Traffic Flow

Tzu-Chang Lee

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of London and Diploma of the Membership of Imperial College London

Centre for Transport Studies Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London, United Kingdom

October 2007
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Acknowledgements
I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisors, Professor John Polak and Professor Michael Bell. Their full support, inspiring guidance and warm encouragement have enabled me to overcome the confusion and difficulties that have been encountered throughout the study. In addition, my sincere appreciation goes to Professor Marcus Wigan, the visiting professor of the Centre for Transport Studies, for his continued and invaluable support. I would like to thank the Ministry of Education of Taiwan for the scholarship, which made this thesis possible. I am deeply grateful to the members of the Centre for Transport Studies, in particular, Jackie, Jan-Dirk, Robin, Steve, Kriangkrai, KyoungA, Walter, Wat, Zia… for their friendship, companionship and assistance. Very special thanks go to my parents, relatives and friends in Taiwan who were always in touch during my stay in England and encouraged me to keep going through those good and not so good times. Final and special mention must go to my wife for being there and supporting me all the time. She has made this journey a less lonely one.

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Abstract
Motorcycles have constituted a significant proportion of the total traffic stream in many countries. They possess several unique features which lead them to exhibit erratic and chaotic trajectories when making progress in traffic. However, the conventional traffic flow theories and traffic simulation models seem to place less consideration on the uniqueness of motorcycles. This may cause such theories and models to have difficulties when describing mixed traffic. In order to take this gap into consideration, this study was conducted to investigate the effects of motorcycles on the traffic flow. The following procedure was adopted: Firstly, the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles were characterised. Further analyses were carried out to extract the fundamental elements which cause the unique behaviour. As the complexity theory assumes that complexity can emerge from simple rules, this study then further suggested that the motorcycle behaviour can be described by modelling these basic elements. Secondly, three models were developed to describe motorcycle movements, namely the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. The longitudinal headway model focused on describing the phenomenon that a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle. The oblique & lateral headway model described the headway distribution of motorcycles when they are following the preceding vehicles obliquely. The path choice behaviour was modelled by using a multinomial logit model which described the dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles. Thirdly, these three models were calibrated separately. The first and the second models were calibrated by using the Bayesian analysis due to their non-linearity and complexity. The last model was calibrated by the maximum likelihood estimation of
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utility models. The data for the calibration were collected by using the video recording methods. The vehicular trajectories from the video footage were extracted by using a software package developed by this study. Finally, an agent-based traffic simulator was built to represent the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. The mathematical models developed for describing the motorcycle behaviour were implemented in this simulator. Through the verification process, this simulation system showed that it was able to work as intended and represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. Three applications of this simulator were presented to show that this simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a powerful tool for conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................2 Abstract............................................................................................................................3 Table of Contents.............................................................................................................5 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................8 List of Tables..................................................................................................................10 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 2 Introduction..................................................................................................12 Background....................................................................................................12 Objectives of this thesis .................................................................................14 Structure of this thesis ...................................................................................15

The Characteristic Behaviour of Motorcycles ..........................................17 2.1 Introducing the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles...............................17 2.1.1 The observations from literature....................................................................18 2.1.2 The observations of this study .......................................................................20 2.1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 Significance of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour ..................................21 The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars ............................24 The behaviour patterns to be modelled..........................................................28 Summary........................................................................................................31

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Review of Driving Behaviour Modelling ...................................................32 3.1 Conventional car-following and lane-changing models ................................32 3.1.1 Car-following models ....................................................................................33 3.1.2 Lane-changing models...................................................................................40 3.1.3 Summary........................................................................................................46 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.3 Modelling of mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles..............................46 Microscopic approaches ................................................................................47 Macroscopic approaches................................................................................53 Summary........................................................................................................55 Conclusions and discussions .........................................................................55

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The Models ...................................................................................................57 4.1 The longitudinal headway model ..................................................................57 4.1.1 The minimum following distance without swerving manoeuvres.................57 4.1.2 The minimum following distance with swerving manoeuvres......................59 4.1.3 The minimum longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle ...................62 4.1.4 Summary........................................................................................................62
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4.2 4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3 4.3 4.4 5 5.1 5.2 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.2.3 5.3

The oblique & lateral headway model...........................................................63 The oblique headway.....................................................................................63 The lateral headway.......................................................................................65 Summary........................................................................................................66 The path choice model...................................................................................66 Conclusions ...................................................................................................70 Data Collection.............................................................................................71 Types of data required ...................................................................................71 Data collection method ..................................................................................72 Video data versus floating-car data ...............................................................73 Choosing the data collection method.............................................................74 Accuracy of the data acquired by the video recording method .....................75 Data collection ...............................................................................................75

5.3.1 Video recording equipment ...........................................................................76 5.3.2 Time and site of the data survey ....................................................................77 5.3.3 The data extracting system ............................................................................81 5.4 5.4.1 5.4.2 5.4.3 5.5 6 The database ..................................................................................................89 Preliminary data processing...........................................................................89 Description of the database............................................................................92 Accuracy of the database ...............................................................................93 Summary........................................................................................................97

Model Calibration........................................................................................98 6.1 The longitudinal headway model ..................................................................98 6.1.1 Data selection ................................................................................................98 6.1.2 Properties of the longitudinal headway .......................................................100 6.1.3 6.1.4 6.2 6.2.1 6.2.2 Specification of the longitudinal headway model .......................................106 The calibration results ................................................................................. 115 The oblique & lateral headway model.........................................................124 Data selection ..............................................................................................124 Properties of the oblique headway...............................................................125

6.2.3 Specification of the oblique & lateral headway model................................127 6.2.4 The calibration results .................................................................................131 6.3 The path choice model.................................................................................139 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.4 6.4.1 Data selection and the data set.....................................................................139 The calibration tool......................................................................................144 The calibration results .................................................................................145 Discussion....................................................................................................152 Tackling the systematic error of the data.....................................................153
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6.4.2 Comparisons between the assumptions of non-lane-based movements and

dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles..............................154 6.4.3 Comparison between the conventional Stochastic Frontier Analysis and the approach proposed in this section..........................................................157 6.4.4 The advantage of the data collection method ..............................................160 7 The Agent-Based Traffic Simulator .........................................................162 7.1 Agent-based modelling................................................................................162 7.1.1 The agent and agent-based modelling .........................................................162 7.1.2 Agent-based modelling and traffic simulation ............................................164 7.1.3 Agent-based modelling for this study..........................................................167 7.1.4 7.2 7.2.1 7.2.2 Selecting the agent-based modelling tool for this study..............................170 The simulator...............................................................................................173 The agents....................................................................................................174 The environment..........................................................................................177

7.2.3 The interaction rules ....................................................................................178 7.2.4 The user interface ........................................................................................186 7.2.5 The schedule of activity...............................................................................187 7.2.6 7.3 7.3.1 7.3.2 7.3.3 7.3.4 7.3.5 7.4 Summary......................................................................................................188 Verification ..................................................................................................189 Representation of the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles...................189 The effects of the dynamic virtual lane based models.................................191 The cooperation between vehicles...............................................................193 Headway distribution...................................................................................193 The fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow .............................................194 The applications...........................................................................................195

7.4.1 The scenario settings ...................................................................................195 7.4.2 The effects of the installation of a motorcycle lane.....................................196 7.4.3 The effects of the installation of an advanced stop line...............................199 7.4.4 The PCU values of motorcycles ..................................................................202 7.5 8 8.1 8.2 Summary......................................................................................................206 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Work .........................207 Summary of research ...................................................................................207 Recommendations for further work............................................................. 211

References ....................................................................................................................214

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List of Figures
Figure 2.1 The congested mixed traffic at an intersection in Taipei, Taiwan .................23 Figure 2.2 The motorcycle storage behind the stop line in Taipei, Taiwan.....................23 Figure 2.3 Factors leading to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles.....................29 Figure 2.4 The regimes of the interactions between passenger cars and motorcycles....31 Figure 3.1 The family of the models for vehicular movements ......................................32 Figure 4.1 The minimum following distance of motorcycles .........................................59 Figure 4.2 The space-time trajectories showing minimum following distance of a motorcycle.......................................................................................................60 Figure 4.3 The schematic diagram of the oblique following relationship ......................64 Figure 4.4 The schematic diagram of the oblique following distance ............................65 Figure 4.5 The schematic diagram of the overtaking relationship..................................66 Figure 4.6 The schematic diagram of the path choice decision ......................................68 Figure 5.1 Data collection and processing sequence ......................................................76 Figure 5.2 The lens distortion test of Sony DCR-HC32 .................................................77 Figure 5.3 The schematic diagram of the survey site......................................................79 Figure 5.4 Images for extracting trajectories and measuring vehicle dimensions ..........81 Figure 5.5 Screenshot of the new data collection system ...............................................82 Figure 5.6 The schematic diagram of the measured dimensions of vehicles..................84 Figure 5.7 The conversion of the coordinates between the video image and the real world ...............................................................................................................85 Figure 5.8 The animated display of the extracted trajectories ........................................89 Figure 5.9 The conceptual illustration of the steering direction .....................................91 Figure 5.10 The conceptual illustration of the body direction ........................................91 Figure 5.11 The errors caused by perspective and sight angles ......................................95 Figure 6.1 The schematic diagram of the longitudinal following relationship ...............99 Figure 6.2 The scatter plots of the longitudinal following relationship........................101 Figure 6.3 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways..........................103
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Figure 6.4 The calibration of the longitudinal headway model using WinBUGS ........ 117 Figure 6.5 The frequency distributions of the oblique headways .................................126 Figure 6.6 The calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model using WinBUGS 132 Figure 6.7 The contours of the marginal distribution of the oblique & lateral headway model.............................................................................................................137 Figure 6.8 The minimum following distance under the non-lane based assumption....155 Figure 6.9 The conceptual illustration of Equation (6.60) ............................................156 Figure 7.1 The decision-making process of the mid-term plan ....................................183 Figure 7.2 The decision-making process of motorcyclists............................................185 Figure 7.3 The screenshot of the agent-based simulation system developed in this study ..............................................................................................................186 Figure 7.4 Time-space plot of the trajectories in mixed traffic flow ............................190 Figure 7.5 Time-space plot of the trajectories in homogeneous traffic flow ................192 Figure 7.6 The communication and cooperation behaviour of vehicles .......................193 Figure 7.7 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways..........................194 Figure 7.8 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for motorcycle lanes.197 Figure 7.9 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without the installation of a motorcycle lane .............................................................198 Figure 7.10 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for advanced stop lines ...............................................................................................................200 Figure 7.11 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without the motorcycle reservoir................................................................................201 Figure 7.12 The fundamental diagrams under different traffic compositions...............203 Figure 7.13 The comparison of flow-density relations under different traffic compositions .................................................................................................204 Figure 7.14 The flow rates and PCU values from the simulation results .....................204

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List of Tables
Table 3.1 Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour .....................................................41 Table 5.1 The resolution of the video images .................................................................83 Table 5.2 The list of reference points..............................................................................87 Table 5.3 Numbers of vehicles surveyed ........................................................................93 Table 6.1 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by lateral position difference.......................................................................................................102 Table 6.2 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by flow density ......105 Table 6.3 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by speed difference 105 Table 6.4 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by leading speed ....105 Table 6.5 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (left half) ................120 Table 6.6 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (right half) ..............121 Table 6.7 The statistical properties of the oblique headways........................................126 Table 6.8 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the elliptic model.............................................................................................................133 Table 6.9 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular model ............................................................................................134 Table 6.10 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular model with linear shape parameter...............................................135 Table 6.11 Comparisons between the estimated and the observed statistics of the oblique following behaviour .........................................................................136 Table 6.12 Errors of the estimation results....................................................................136 Table 6.13 The sample frequencies of the alternatives .................................................142 Table 6.14 The multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour .............................145 Table 6.15 Estimation results for the path choice model ..............................................146 Table 6.16 Estimation results for the refinements of the path choice model ................148 Table 6.17 Refined multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour ......................152 Table 6.18 Estimation results for the refined path choice model ..................................152 Table 6.19 Comparison of the calibration results between the conventional stochastic frontier analysis and the approach used in this study....................................159
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Table 7.1 Comparisons of the specifications between models......................................181 Table 7.2 Specifications of the scenarios ......................................................................196

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1 Introduction
This study aims to develop a microscopic simulation model for describing the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow by using the technique of agent-based modelling. The term ‘motorcycle’ here refers to any single-track two-wheeled motor vehicle, with a speed which is competent to overtake other vehicles in urban networks. Following this definition, vehicles such as heavy motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and motorised-bicycles are categorised as motorcycles. In this first chapter, the orientation of this thesis will be described. It starts with the background to this topic, particularly the necessity of understanding motorcycle behaviour from the standpoint of traffic management. The objectives of this study are then described. The structure of this thesis is provided at the end of this chapter.

1.1 Background
Motorcycles have been an important mode of transport in South East Asia for decades. They account for around half of the road traffic in many Asian cities (Gwilliam, 2003). For example, in Vietnam, more than 75% of the traffic consisted of motorcycles (Gwilliam, 2003; Hsu et al., 2003; Nguyen and Montgomery, 2006; Minh et al., 2006), whilst in urban area of Malaysia, around 39% of the traffic were composed of motorcycles (Hsu et al., 2003). In other countries, 46% of traffic in Taipei, Taiwan (Hsu et al., 2003), 79%i in Lao (Hussain et al., 2005), 75%i in Cambodia (Hussain et al., 2005) and 73% i of traffic in Indonesia (Hussain et al., 2005) were motorcycles. Moreover, motorcycle ownership in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, was as high as 0.75 per capita in 2005 (CEPD, 2006). In Bangkok, motorcycles accounted for 40% of the registered vehicles in

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Based on the data of Hussain et al (2005), it included motorcycles and three-wheeled vehicles. 12

2003 (Sano et al., 2005). In addition to these ‘motorcycle-driven societies’ (JBIC, 1999) in Asia, other areas also see the active presence of motorcycles. For example, motorcycles act as a mode of paratransit service to deliver people and goods in Nigeria, Uganda and Kenya (Fasakin, 2002; Howe, 2003; Kisaalita and Sentongo-Kibalama, 2007). Passenger transport by motorcycle is popular in Italy and Greece (EEA, 2003). In Italy, for example, motorcycles accounted for 11.5% of vehicle mileage on roads in 1994 (Hurdle, 1997). Furthermore, there are signs that the use of motorcycles as a transport mode is growing in some areas of Europe and Australia. In Greece and Luxembourg, the motorcycle ownership increased by 118% and 116% respectively between 1990 and 1998 (EEA, 2001). Yannis et al. (2007) reported that this upward trend of motorcycle ownership was still continuing in Greece. Also, the passenger transport by motorcycle showed a strong growth in Denmark and Portugal between 1994 and 2000 (EEA, 2003), while the average growth of motorcycle traffic in the European Union (EU-15) reached 18% during this period. The total motorcycle registrations in New South Wales, Australia increased by 14% from 1995 to 2000 (De Rome et al., 2002). In the United Kingdom, registered motorcycles had increased by 36% from 1993 to 2001 (DfT, 2004) and motorcycle traffic had increased by 34% between 1993 and 2002 (Huang and Preston, 2004). With this increase of motorcycle usage, the necessity for considering the role of motorcycling in an integrated transport policy cannot be overlooked, something that has been pointed out by many studies (e.g. DETR, 1998; Wigan, 2000; Martin et al., 2001; Robertson, 2002; DfT, 2004). Motorcycles possess several unique features such as narrow width, small size, high power-to-weight ratio and intuitive steering. All this may lead them to have more freedom in a traffic stream and also perform some characteristic behaviour patterns in mixed traffic flow. For example, motorcycles generally present more complex behaviour than
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passenger cars do, exhibit more erratic and chaotic trajectories when making progress, and do not always follow the lane disciplines strictly. However, the conventional traffic flow theories and traffic simulation models seem to put their main focus on passenger cars and, accordingly, place less consideration on the uniqueness of motorcycles. This may cause such theories and models to have difficulties when describing mixed traffic (Ahuja, 2001) and assessing the influence of motorcycles upon the traffic flow, particularly in busy urban networks or in a congested stream. Under such circumstances the differences in behaviour between motorcycles and passenger cars become more obvious due to their different natures. Motorcycles have constituted a significant proportion of the total traffic stream in many countries and, still, have been poorly represented in existing traffic flow theories and simulation software. In order to take this gap into consideration, this study is conducted to investigate the effects of motorcycles on the traffic flow. In stead of considering motorcycles as small passenger cars, the movements of motorcycles are analysed focusing on their unique features. The results of this study can facilitate mixed traffic management for those motorcycle-driven societies and clarify the role of motorcycles in integrated transport policy for the Western countries.

1.2 Objectives of this thesis
The aim of this study is to demonstrate a new approach to the modelling of motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. The necessity for an in-depth analysis of this issue has been briefly discussed above and will be more fully explained in the remainder of this thesis. In order to achieve the aim of this study, there are four research objectives identified: 1) Characterise motorcycle behaviour patterns; 2) Identify the gaps and weaknesses in current microscopic treatments for
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simulating motorcycles in traffic flow; 3) Develop models to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles; and 4) Develop a traffic simulation system capable of representing motorcycle behaviour.

1.3 Structure of this thesis
This thesis comprises eight chapters which explicitly explain the steps taken to achieve the objectives mentioned above. Each chapter consists of several subsections, starting with an introduction that describes the structure of the chapter and ending with a summary which identifies the main issues raised in the chapter. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 introduces the overall context of this study, states the research objectives and provides the structure of this thesis. Chapter 2 characterises the behaviour of motorcycles. It analyses the causes of their unique behaviour patterns and summarises the essential factors leading to the characteristic behaviour. This chapter then indicates a direction and provides a basis for the model developments. Chapter 3 focuses on reviewing the traffic simulation techniques. Studies concerned with the car-following models, the lane-changing models and the mixed traffic flow modelling are reviewed and discussed. Chapter 4 develops three mathematic models to describe motorcycle behaviour. These models describe the longitudinal following relationship, the lateral and oblique following relationship, and the path choice behaviour of motorcycles. Chapter 5 describes the data collection method adopted by this study. Chapter 6 describes the model calibration process. Such a process includes data cleaning, data analysing, model specification and the selection of the calibration tools.
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The calibration results of the three mathematical models developed in this study are presented. Chapter 7 presents an agent-based traffic simulation model. The above mathematical models are embedded in this simulation system to direct the actions and interactions of the agents. Three applications of this system are demonstrated at the end of this chapter. Finally, Chapter 8 outlines the conclusions of this study and makes suggestions for future work.

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2 The Characteristic Behaviour of Motorcycles
This chapter aims to provide an in-depth analysis of motorcycles’ particular behaviour and to prepare the ground for the model developments in Chapter 4. It is observed that motorcycles exhibit characteristic movements which are distinct from those of passenger cars. These movements however, seem to be less considered in microscopic traffic models (this point will be explored in Chapter 3). This can cause such models difficulties in representing motorcycles in mixed traffic. To take this into account, the first step is to characterise motorcycles’ behaviour patterns and analyse the fundamental elements contributing to the unique behaviour. This chapter starts with a description of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour. The comparison between motorcycles and passenger cars is then provided. Finally, the fundamental behaviour patterns which contribute to the characteristic movements of motorcycles are extracted.

2.1 Introducing the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles
In traffic flow, motorcyclists tend to adopt an active driving style, make progress by making use of opportunities (Martin et al., 2001) and exhibit characteristic movements which are distinct from the typical movements of passenger cars. These characteristic movements will now be introduced in the following three subsections. The first subsection reviews the relevant literature related to this topic. Then, the observations from this study will be detailed in the second subsection. Based on the discussions of the above two subsections, an identification of the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles is provided in the last subsection.

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2.1.1 The observations from literature
The behavioural differences between motorcycles and passenger cars have been discussed in many studies. These behaviour patterns include: Travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane It is common for a motorcyclist to share the lateral lane space with other vehicles because the width of a motorcycle (0.75 m) accounts for only around 25% of the lane width (3 m). Many studies have observed this behaviour pattern. For example, Branston (1977) investigated the headway of vehicles and reported that the measurement of motorcycles’ headways was difficult because of their ability of travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane. Other studies such as Robertson (2003), Chandra and Kumar (2003), Arasan and Koshy (2003), Cho and Wu (2004) and Minh et al. (2006) have also described this behaviour pattern. Oblique following Motorcycle can follow another vehicle at an oblique position due to their narrowness and small size. As the typical width of a lane is far larger than the need of motorcycles, they do not necessarily keep to the centre of a lane. As a result, when following a vehicle, motorcycles enjoy the freedom to choose the lateral positions in a lane. Thus, it is often to observe that a motorcycle follows a vehicle at an oblique position. By doing so, the motorcyclist can get a better field of view and have a better chance to filter, overtake or avoid a potential collision. Robertson (2003) described this following pattern as “echelon formation”. Arasan and Koshy (2003) reported that the vehicles in mixed traffic had “zero headways”. Although they did not mention the reasons, such short headways could be due to motorcycles’ oblique following or lateral following. Cho and Wu (2004) described this behaviour pattern when they tried to model the motorcycle behaviour in mixed-traffic flow.
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Filtering Filtering is the behaviour of moving through the lateral clearances between slow moving or stationary vehicles. It can be considered as a series of overtaking movements by using dynamic virtual lanes. Such behaviour pattern has been pointed out in many studies (e.g. Hurdle, 1997; Oketch, 2000; Wigan, 2001; Robertson, 2002; MRA, 2006). Due to the narrowness of motorcycles, they enjoy the advantage of filtering through the traffic under the situations that cars cannot (Elliott et al., 2003). Minh et al. (2006) tried to employ the concept of ‘dynamic lane’ to describe the filtering behaviour of motorcycles. Moving to the head of a queue Motorcycles have the advantage of moving to the head of a queue due to their ability of filtering. At the beginning of a green light, the motorcycle tends to enjoy a short start-up time to pass the intersection. May and Montgomery (1986) observed this phenomenon and reported that the motorcycles leaving the intersection with the first 6 sec of the green time would not affect the capacity of the intersection. Powell (2000) developed a regression model to describe this behaviour pattern (more details will be discussed in Chapter 3). In the simulator of Oketch (2000), the widths of standard vehicles were defined to be smaller at standstill to allow motorcycles to filter to the head of the queue. In addition, other studies such as Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005) and Minh et al. (2006) developed models to describe the behaviour of motorcycles at an intersection. Moving to the head of a queue was also listed as one of the significant behaviour types of motorcycles in Robertson’s study (2002). Swerving or weaving Swerving or weaving is a typical behaviour pattern of motorcycles which mixed longitudinal and lateral movements. When a motorcyclist is weaving in and out of the traffic, it seems that the vehicles in his surroundings are able to cooperate with this
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particular behaviour pattern. Hurdle (1997), Robertson (2002) and Minh et al. (2006) have introduced this behaviour pattern. It is sometimes followed by an overtaking or filtering movement. Tailgating According to Arasan and Koshy (2003) and Minh et al. (2005b), motorcyclists were likely to maintain short following distances than do car drivers. In addition, Horswill and Helman (2003) found that motorcycles were more likely to pull out into small gaps. It seems that motorcycles have higher tolerance for a small following distance. However, it is still not clear about the reason behind motorcyclists’ tailgating behaviour.

2.1.2 The observations of this study
In addition to the behaviour observed from literature, other types of behaviour are also identified by this study. Maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle Motorcycles follow the preceding vehicles in a two-dimensional manner and the lateral movement within a lane does affect their manoeuvres. This study has found that a motorcycle tended to have a shorter headway while following the preceding vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge. This is because when a motorcyclist progresses by the strategy of collision avoidance, aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle can shorten the safety gap since he can swerve away easily. Travelling according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in surroundings In urban networks, motorcycles do not progress fully following the lane marks as they have less lane discipline than passenger cars have. Instead, they are likely to move
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according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in their surroundings. For example, when a motorcyclist is progressing alongside another vehicle in the same lane, his movements are constrained by the vehicles aside. Also, a wide lateral clearance between vehicles becomes a virtual lane for a motorcycle to go through. Therefore, the clearances in a motorcycle’s surroundings provide potential paths for it to make progress in traffic. Self-organisation phenomena A cluster of motorcycles in mixed traffic can easily present ‘herd behaviour’, i.e. they can act together without prior arrangements. An example of this is the cycle of filtering-gathering-dispersing of motorcycles. In a congested intersection, motorcycles can filter to the head of the queues. Subsequently, motorcycles will gather into a cluster behind the red light. At the start of the green periods, they burst by using higher accelerations, then dispersing into the traffic stream and moving towards the next intersection. This cycle can be viewed as the phenomena of self-organisation.

2.1.3 Significance of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour
According to the findings in the literature and the observations from this study, the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles can be summarised. Also, the significance of these behaviour patterns is described.

2.1.3.1 Characterising the behaviour patterns
The characteristic behaviour of motorcycles mentioned in Sections 2.1.1 and 2.1.2 is summarised as follows: 1) Travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane 2) Moving to the head of a queue 3) Filtering
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4) Swerving or weaving 5) Tailgating 6) Oblique following 7) Maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle 8) Travelling according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in surroundings 9) Self-organisation phenomena The above list concludes the observations of motorcycles’ behaviour patterns mentioned in the literature and observed in this study. Most of the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles, from the viewpoint of microscopic traffic modelling, have been included in this list.

2.1.3.2 Significance of the behaviour patterns
It is believed that the behaviour patterns mentioned in the preceding section play an important role in mixed traffic containing motorcycles, particularly in congested traffic. Although little study has assessed the impacts of these behaviour patterns on the traffic, their significant influences are commonly observed. Two figures are employed to illustrate this point. Figure 2.1 shows the saturated flow at the beginning of the green light at an intersection in Taipei. By comparing the four photos in this figure, the difference of the traffic patterns among the passenger car flow, the mixed flow and the homogeneous motorcycle flow can be observed. Figure 2.2 display the motorcycle storage behind the stop line and the filtering behaviour of motorcycles.

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(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Figure 2.1 The congested mixed traffic at an intersection in Taipei, Taiwan

Figure 2.2 The motorcycle storage behind the stop line in Taipei, Taiwan

The behaviour patterns mentioned in Section 2.1.3.1 are presented in these photos. For example, Figure 2.2 presents the filtering behaviour and the phenomenon of moving to the head of queues. Figure 2.1 shows the difference in the way passenger cars and
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motorcycles maintain safety clearances. The behaviour patterns such as riding abreast in the same lane, oblique following and close following can be observed in these photos. In addition, Figure 2.1a shows the ‘swarming’ phenomenon of a cluster of motorcycles. It is worthwhile to point out that the behaviour of maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle is the key factor to cause this phenomenon. Based on the above analyses, it would be safe to assert that the presence of motorcycles has a significant impact on the traffic density and the flow pattern because of their unique behaviour patterns. However, the conventional vehicular models cannot describe them. In order to simulate the behaviour of motorcycles in the mixed traffic flow, it is critical to develop tailor-made models for describing these particular behaviour patterns. The first step towards this objective is to characterise the essential differences between motorcycles and passenger cars. This will be elaborated in the following sections.

2.2 The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars
The physical, psychological and mechanical differences between different vehicle types will give rise to different behaviour. This section will focus on discussing the essential differences between motorcycles and passenger cars from several viewpoints. Field of view The motorcyclist has a wider field of view than the car driver does. The car driver’s field of view is obstructed by the frame of the windscreen, the crumble zone, the doors and the facilities in the cabin. Consequently, those blind spots cause difficulties in assessing the exact clearances around his vehicle. In contrast, the motorcyclist has a wider field of view, so he can assess the gaps more precisely. The difference in the field of views between vehicle types would affect the behaviour of their drivers. When a driver cannot observe his gap ahead clearly, he would
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maintain a larger safety margin. This is usually the reason why the car drivers tend to maintain larger safety margins than do the motorcyclists. According to the observation of this study, the difference could be up to 1 m, albeit no direct evidences. This difference usually could be omitted in the studies of free flow, but it plays an important role in the studies of congested urban networks because it facilitates motorcyclists’ tailgating, weaving and filtering behaviour. Therefore, it is believed that the wider field of view of the motorcycle contributes to its characteristic behaviour. Size The narrowness and small size of a motorcycle contributes to its distinctive behaviour. A motorcycle is usually around 0.75 m wide by 1.6 m long. This size is much smaller in comparison with the size of a car, which is around 1.6 m wide by 4.3 m long. Based on its small size, the motorcycle can exploit the road space which is usually unusable for a passenger car. For example, a motorcycle can filter through a slow moving flow by using the clearance between two parallel cars. It can also weave in and out of a stationary flow via the safety margins between vehicles. Weight Not only the small size but also the light weight achieves the agility of the motorcycle. A motorcycle is much lighter than a car. With the light weight of a motorcycle, the rider can move his body to facilitate his manoeuvre. In addition, the light weight causes the higher power-to-weight ratio of the machine (Elliott et al., 2003). As a result, a motorcyclist is likely to feel it easier to achieve high accelerations, psychologically or mechanically. Hsu et al. (2003) mentioned that motorcycles enjoy a burst at the beginning of a green light at a signalised intersection. Their view provides an evidence for this point.

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The manoeuvring methods Being a single-track vehicle, the motorcycle is steered by using the handlebar and the movement of the rider’s body. By the delicate interaction between man and machine, the motorcycle and its rider is considered to be a man-machine system (Sharp, 2001) to exhibit some agile movements. However, a passenger car can be manoeuvred only by using the steering wheel. By comparing the manoeuvring methods of these two vehicle types, the motorcycle is comparatively intuitive, straightforward and precise. These characteristics can often influence the behaviour of motorcycles. Turning radii The turning radii of motorcycles are much smaller than those of passenger cars due to the differences in size and the manoeuvring system. This may lead to the agility of motorcycles and further facilitates their swerving behaviour. Acceleration Motorcycles were found to enjoy a burst at the beginning of a green light at a signalised intersection, but their acceleration would be lower than the cars’ acceleration when their speeds were above 40 km/h (Hsu et al., 2003). Braking deceleration The physical mechanism of applying brakes of a motorcycle is complicated. A motorcyclist needs highly developed manoeuvring skills to exhaust the maximum braking capability of the machine. Ecker et al. (2001) conducted an experiment and found that common motorcyclists could only achieve an average braking deceleration of around -6.19 m/sec2, which was only 56% of the maximum deceleration capability of the machine (around -11 m/sec2, Biokinetics and Associates Ltd, 2003). Vavryn and Winkelbauer (2004) obtained similar results and the maximum deceleration velocity in their tests was -6.6 m/sec2. However, the value varied slightly with factors such as the
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familiarity with the vehicle, the training of riders, the condition of the road surface and types of braking systems. Regarding passenger cars, the mechanical maximum braking capability was around -10 m/sec2 (quoted by Ecker et al., 2001). The major difference in the braking behaviour between the single-track and double-track vehicles is that there is a psychological and technical hurdle for motorcyclists to achieve the maximum braking, whereas this is not the case for car drivers, who can exhaust the maximum braking capability easily. Reaction time Since motorists and motorcyclists have different the field of views and manoeuvring methods, there would be some differences between their reaction times. However, no study focusing on this issue has been conducted. Green (2000) reviewed the studies concerning the reaction time of car drivers and concluded that when fully aware, it was around 0.70 to 0.75 sec, whereas it was 1.25 to 1.5 sec in unexpected situations. Gipps (1981) applied 0.66 sec to the reaction time in his following model. In a survey of the reaction time of the motorcycles, Tang (2003) reported that the reaction time of motorcycles was 0.7 to 0.9 sec. Hsu et al. (2003) observed that motorcycles had a shorter reaction time at the start of the green time. In addition, Minh et al. (2006) used following distances, speeds and acceleration rates to calculate the reaction times of motorcycles and found that the average reaction time was 0.52 sec. Generally speaking, the reaction time for the vehicle drivers, including motorcyclists, is around 0.5 sec to 1.5 sec. Headway A few studies have focused on comparing the following distance between motorcycles and passenger cars and indicated that motorcyclists tend to maintain smaller headways than do car drivers. For example, Branston (1977) measured the headway of motorcycles on motorways and found it was 0.6 to 0.9 times shorter than that of cars
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(quoted in Wigan, 2000). Ahuja (2001) indicated that the gaps accepted by motorcycles were extremely small. Horswill and Helman (2003) pointed out that motorcyclists tended to pull out into smaller gaps frequently. Arasan and Koshy (2003) reported that the heterogeneous flow had extremely short headways. In addition, Minh et al. (2005b) found that the 50% of the motorcycles in their surveys had time headways between 0.5 sec and 1.0 sec, which were only half of the headways of passenger cars. In addition to the longitudinal headway, motorcycles can ride alongside other vehicles within the same lane. Thus, the lateral gap, or lateral headway, is a unique kinematic parameter of them. Minh et al. (2005a), Hussain et al. (2005) and Minh et al. (2006) have investigated the width of the path required for motorcycles. From their results, the minimum lateral gap that a motorcyclist needs was around 0.5 m. Speed Hsu et al. (2003) quoted an observation which indicated that the speeds of motorcycles were higher than the speeds of cars at the beginning of the green light, but were lower in mid stream. Also, motorcycles had a higher speed in narrow streets. Horswill and Helman (2003) analysed the results both from laboratory experiments and from roadside observations, concluding that motorcyclists would like to choose faster speeds than car drivers would. Statistic results in the United Kingdom showed that motorcycle speeds are about the same as car speeds (DfT, 2005b).
DfT

2.3 The behaviour patterns to be modelled
According to the basic assumption of complexity theory, complexity can emerge from simple rules (Bar-Yam, 1997; Anderson, 1999). Thus, it is assumed that the motorcycle behaviour can be generated by modelling some key elements. In order to extract these key elements, the causal relationships among these behaviour patterns are clarified. In addition, the essential differences discussed in Section 2.2 are linked to the
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behaviour patterns to support and rationalise the model developments. Identification of the key behaviour patterns The characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles can be generally categorised into two types. The first type describes how a motorcycle reacts to another vehicle. It is a one-on-one vehicular relationship such as the longitudinal following, oblique following, overtaking, etc. The second type is the multi-vehicular relationship which describes how a motorcycle reacts to several vehicles in its surroundings. Such interactions include the filtering behaviour, swerving behaviour and path choice behaviour. Figure 2.3 shows how the key differences contribute to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles. In addition, the relationships between the one-on-one vehicular interactions and the multi-vehicular interactions are also presented. The arrows in this diagram represent the causal relationships between the elements.

Basic feature

One-on-one vehicular interaction
Oblique & lateral headway model
Travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane Oblique following

Multi-vehicular interaction
Moving to the head of a queue

Small size

Lighter weight

Filtering

Intuitive steering method Small turning radius

Longitudinal headway model
Maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle Tailgating

Swerving or weaving

Path choice model
Travelling according to the dynamic virtual lanes

Wider field of view

Figure 2.3 Factors leading to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

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In Figure 2.3, some relationships have been discussed in the literature. For example, Elliott et al. (2003) have observed the light weight and the narrowness contribute to a motorcycle’s high acceleration and filtering behaviour. Some relationships are explicit and straightforward. For instance, the links among the vehicle sizes, the oblique following behaviour, riding abreast in the same lane, filtering and moving to the head of queues are commonly observed and easily understood. However, some relationships proposed in this study seem plausible, but further research is needed. The mechanism for maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle, and the factors contributing to the dynamic virtual lane-based movements should be investigated to offer a whole picture the motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour patterns. Moreover, it is found that most of the multi-vehicular interactions are built on the one-on-one vehicular interactions. Therefore, to build a simulation system to depict the motorcycle behaviour, three models are indispensable, namely the oblique & lateral headway model, the longitudinal headway model and the path choice model. Description of the key behaviour patterns Of these three models described above, the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model depict the vehicle-following relationship. The former describes how a motorcyclist reacts to another vehicle when he is progressing directly behind this vehicle. The latter integrates the relationships of oblique following, overtaking and travelling alongside another vehicle, detailing the reaction of a motorcyclist when he is following at the rear left or rear right of another vehicle, or progressing alongside another vehicle. The regimes of these two types of vehicle-following relationships are shown in the conceptual illustration in Figure 2.4. The boundaries of these regimes are defined according to the edges of the leading vehicle and the width of the following motorcycle.
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The path choice model represents how a motorcyclist makes a decision on whether or not to make a lateral movement. The alternatives of the choice set are defined according to the edges of the leading vehicle and the width of the following motorcycle, as shown in Figure 2.4. These three models will be elaborated more fully in Chapter 4.

Oblique following

Overtaking w/2

Longitudinal following

w Path choice w/2

Oblique following

Overtaking

Figure 2.4 The regimes of the interactions between passenger cars and motorcycles

2.4 Summary
This chapter first characterised nine unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles. The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars were then compared and the factors contribute to these behaviour patterns were analysed. Finally, the fundamental elements which led to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles were extracted. The analyses of this chapter showed that there were significant behavioural differences between motorcycles and passenger cars. These outcomes implied that in order to represent the mixed traffic flow accurately in a simulation model, the fundamental elements which caused the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles should be captured in the model. These key behaviour patterns could be described by three models: the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. The developments of these models are presented in Chapter 4.
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3 Review of Driving Behaviour Modelling
This chapter reviews the models that have been developed to describe vehicular movements in traffic flow. Section 3.1 discusses the models aiming at describing the car-following and lane-changing behaviour. Section 3.2 reviews the studies focusing on mixed traffic modelling, particularly the traffic containing motorcycles. Section 3.3 provides a summary of this chapter.

3.1 Conventional car-following and lane-changing models
The studies concerning developing the models for describing the vehicular movements in traffic flow have been emphasised for more than half a century (Pipes, 1953; Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). Being the fundamental elements of traffic flow studies and simulations, a large number of models have been developed in this field. Comprehensive reviews of these models can be found in many studies, for example, Brackstone and McDonald (1999), Ahmed (1999), Hoogendoorn and Bovy (2001), Olstam and Tapani (2004), and Toledo (2007). Based on their reviews, a general picture of different models can be depicted, as illustrated in Figure 3.1.

General Motors nonlinear models Car-following models Free acceleration models Lane-changing models Cellular automata models Safety distance or collision avoidance models Psychophysical or action point models Fuzzy logic models Other models

Models for vehicular movements

Figure 3.1 The family of the models for vehicular movements
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In the following subsections, the car-following models and the lane-changing models are reviewed. Discussions focusing on the feasibility of applying these models to motorcycle behaviour simulations are then provided at the end of each subsection.

3.1.1 Car-following models
Car-following models describe the interaction between adjacent vehicles in the same lane (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). These models, providing the foundation for traffic simulation systems, are the major part of the microscopic vehicular movements modelling. Three featured models of this category, the General Motors nonlinear models, the collision avoidance models, the psychophysical models are reviewed more fully below in order to facilitate a deeper understanding of the car-following models.

3.1.1.1 General Motors nonlinear models
The General Motors nonlinear model (GM model), or sometimes referred to as the GHR (Gazis-Herman-Rothery) models (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999), stemmed from a series of studies conducted at the General Motors research labs in Detroit in the late 1950s (Chandler et al., 1958; Gazis et al., 1959; Gazis et al., 1961). This type of models assumes that the following behaviour is stimulated by the changes of the driving condition. The acceleration of the following vehicle is influenced by the speed of the preceding vehicle, and the speed difference and the headway between the vehicle pair. The most general formulation is:
β an (t ) = αvn (t )

∆ vn ( t − τ ) , where ∆xγn (t − τ )
(3.1)

an(t): the acceleration of vehicle n implemented at time t, vn(t): the speed of vehicle n implemented at time t, xn: the headway between vehicle n and vehicle n-1,
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vn: the speed difference between vehicle n and vehicle n-1, : the driver reaction time, and , and : parameters. A great deal of studies has been worked on the calibration and validation of the GM models. However, this type of models is now being used less frequently. The main reason is the uncertainty of the parameter values, i.e. a large number of contradictory calibration results about the parameters have been found (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). The limitations of the GM models and the concerns about applying them to the motorcycle movement modelling are discussed below. Discussions There are some limitations of the GM models: 1) The main criticism applied to the GM models is the lack of conclusive evidence for the model formation, which might be one of the reasons leading to the demise of this type of models (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). Although a wide variety of the calibration results of the parameters , and can be obtained from studies, it is difficult to validate these results since these parameters do not link directly to the identifiable characteristics of drivers. 2) Whether the drivers can perceive and react to small changes of the spacing or speeds is a question, particularly when the spacing is large. 3) Another drawback is that when the speed difference between the related vehicles is 0, the estimated acceleration of the following vehicle will be 0. As a result, the speed of the following vehicle will stay at the same level once there is no speed difference to its preceding vehicle. In addition, when applying the GM models to the simulation of motorcycle behaviour, some issues should be taken into consideration:
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4) The GM models do not consider the interaction between the longitudinal headway and the lateral position. Therefore, some behaviour patterns of motorcycles cannot be described properly, for example, oblique following and maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle. 5) It is uncertain whether motorcycles exhibit the car-following phenomenon (or the oscillating phenomenon) as they have the freedom of lateral movements. In fact, points 4) and 5) are also the limitations of other car-following models. 6) Lan and Chang (2004) found that the GM models poorly described the vehicle following behaviour of motorcycles. This finding was based on an empirical study focusing on the following behaviour of motorcycles. The trajectory data of motorcycles were surveyed and the results showed that the GM model did not fit the field data well. 7) The parameters of the GM models vary with traffic conditions (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). However, the manoeuvres of motorcycles are highly sensitive to the local environment. The parameters need to be estimated according to the motorcycle behaviour in different local driving conditions. Such calibration work will be resource-demanding.

3.1.1.2 Collision avoidance models
The collision avoidance models assume that the following vehicle will maintain a safety distance to the vehicle in front and will select its speed to ensure the vehicle can stop safely to avoid a rear-end collision. Such models (e.g. Kometani and Sasaki, 1959; Gipps, 1981) are developed based on the equations of motion. However, this type of models has been criticised in that the vehicles cannot react properly to the unexpected movement of the preceding vehicles. For example, it is easy to cause a rear-end collision when the preceding vehicle brakes suddenly (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). To
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tackle this issue, Gipps (1981) developed a model within which the extra safety reaction time and safety headway margin were introduced. The parameters in his following model corresponded to the characteristics of drivers directly and thus were not necessary to be calibrated. When realistic values were assigned to the parameters, this model was able to represent the characteristics of real traffic flow such as the propagation of disturbances. The Gipps-like model has played an important role in the field of traffic simulation and also has been employed in many traffic simulation packages, for example, MULTSIM (Gipps, 1986b), SUMO (Krauss, 1998), AIMSUN (Barceló, 2001) and SIGSIM (Silcock, 1993). In addition to describing the longitudinal following behaviour, the collision avoidance models can be adapted to describe the lateral movement of vehicles. Gunay (2007) tried to integrate the lateral offset of the following vehicle into the Gipps following model. This study could be the first one to discuss the two-dimensional movement of car-following behaviour. It also shows that the collision avoidance models allow the flexibility in altering the kinematic properties. Brackstone et al. (2002) found that the minimum desired following distance was far lower than believed when they investigate the parameters for the action point model (see Section 3.1.1.3). Therefore, they questioned that Newtonian mechanics could fail to describe such a short headway. This finding offered a challenge to the validity of the collision avoidance models. However, when a driver is following closely, he should be more alert and his reaction time would be shorter than usual. In addition, if the driver expects a low deceleration difference to the preceding vehicle, an extremely short headway still can be described by a collision avoidance model. Discussions The collision avoidance models are developed based on the equations of motion. A limitation of this type of models is that they have difficulties in considering the conditions
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of several cars down stream (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999) because the equations of motion cannot describe the interactions to the vehicles prior to the preceding vehicle. Gipps following model is the most important one of the collision avoidance models. This model asserted that its parameters did not need to be calibrated. Such an assertion, however, can be argued. Although most of the parameters (such as speeds and accelerations) can be measured according to the local traffic conditions since they correspond to the realistic behaviour of drivers directly, some latent and unobservable parameters (such as the reaction time, the extra safety reaction time and safety headway margin) still need to be calibrated. Gipps dealt with this issue by suggesting that the values of these parameters could be assigned arbitrarily or obtained from other studies. In fact, the model would be able to describe the drivers’ behaviour better if the values of the latent variables were obtained from a calibration process. The Gipps following model is appropriate for describing the tailgating behaviour of motorcyclists due to the assumption on which this model is based. When a vehicle is following the leader closely, it will select the following speed and following distance according to the principle of collision avoidance. This principle tends to be adopted by most motorcyclists when they are progressing in congested traffic, particularly in urban networks. Therefore, Gipps following model seems to be an ideal tool for simulating motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic. Another merit of the Gipps following model is that it is easy to be modified. This model is developed based on the basic physical theories and the realistic parameter values. Therefore, the parameter values are still valid after this model is modified according to the equations of motion.

3.1.1.3 Psychophysical (action point) models
The psychophysical models (Leutzbach and Wiedemann, 1986) assume that drivers control their acceleration by perceiving the related speed according to the change of the
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visual angle of the preceding vehicle and keep their safety distance by setting a threshold. This concept was first brought up by Michaels (1963). As drivers have difficulties in detecting the subtle change of the spacing headway, the following vehicles may drift around the spacing-based threshold. Thus, this type of models is able to represent the phenomenon of oscillation or ‘following spiral’, which has been observed in many studies (Brackstone et al., 2002). The action point models have been employed in a number of traffic simulation packages, for example, PARAMICS (Fritzsche, 1994; Cameron and Duncan, 1996) and VISSIM (Fellendorf and Vortisch, 2001). Discussions The basic assumption of this type of models can describe the features in daily driving behaviour properly. However, the parameters of the models have not yet been calibrated empirically. Most of the perceptual thresholds in studies are arbitrarily derived from the human factors literature (Toledo, 2007). This seems not strong enough to either prove or disprove the validity of this model (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). When applying the psychophysical models to the simulation of motorcycle behaviour, a critical challenge facing the underlying assumption of this type of models is whether the motorcycles exhibit the oscillating phenomenon? As they do not necessarily stick to the same lateral positions, they are able to move laterally when crossing the deceleration perceptual threshold, rather than applying brakes. An evidence for this argument is given in Lan and Chang (2004) who pointed out that only 13.8% of the observed motorcycles exhibited the vehicle following behaviour in their field survey. In addition, it could be a more comfortable lateral position for a motorcyclist to align to the edge of the preceding vehicle (as discussed in Section 2.1.2). Thus, when the concept of action point is applied to the motorcycles, decelerating seems not to be the only choice when exceeding the threshold. Instead, lateral moving is more likely to be the choice.

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3.1.1.4 Comparison of car-following models
Many studies have been conducted to compare the performances of the car-following models. Bloomberg and Dale (2000) compared the performance of the cellular automata model (CORSIM) and the action point model (VISSIM) on a congested network. They found that both models were appropriate for modelling congested conditions, but each has specific strengths and limitations for some specific scenarios. Brockfeld et al. (2004) used the data collected by DGPS-equipped cars (differential global positioning system) to calibrate the models including the GM model (MITSIM, Yang, 1997), the Gipps following model, the cellular automata model (CA0.1, Nagel and Schreckenberg, 1992) and the action point model (PARAMICS). They concluded that no model could be denoted to be the best. However, the complex models likely had the problem of ‘over-fitting’, which meant that a complex model could fit a particular situation extremely well, but was not capable of generalising to other situations. Punzo and Simonelli (2005) also drew similar conclusions from their study. Panwai and Dia (2005) evaluated the performance of the Gipps-like model (AIMSUN) and two action point models (PARAMICS and VISSIM) on congested traffic. They concluded that PARAMICS and VISSIM fitted the data of following distances better than the Gipps-like model did. However, AIMSUN and VISSIM fitted the speed difference and described the pattern of following spiral better than PARAMICS did. The authors did not further discuss the reason why PARAMICS could not represent the following spiral well since the action point models were specified to represent the phenomenon of oscillation or following spiral. Discussions From the comparisons conducted by the above studies, it is found that the car-following behaviour varies with traffic conditions and the properties of drivers. Each type of models has specific strengths and limitations for some specific scenarios. In
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addition, a more complex model could not be a more generalised one to other conditions. Therefore, in order to simulate the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow properly, to select or develop models which are able to capture the characteristics of motorcycles, and to obtain a highly detailed database of the vehicle trajectories for calibrating the models are both critical issues.

3.1.2 Lane-changing models
The lane-changing models describe the lateral movements of vehicles. Such behaviour consists of two steps: the lane selection process and the execution process, which are represented by the lane selection models and the gap acceptance models respectively. These two types of models will be introduced here.

3.1.2.1 Lane selection models
The lane selection behaviour is modelled according to the motivation of drivers. Different types of motivations may lead to different specifications of the lane selection models and the gap acceptance models. This review will not address the details of the model specifications, but will discuss the lane selection models from the aspects of cause variables, model types and calibration techniques. Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour A driver’s lane-changing behaviour can be traced to several reasons. For example, the driving condition of the current lane is not satisfactory; the target lane has a better driving condition or the target lane is the approach to the intended turn. These cause variables that affect the lane selection behaviour can be divided into four categories. In each category, the variables considered in the literature are summarised in Table 3.1:

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Table 3.1 Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour
Category Type of the subject vehicle The driving conditions of the target lane Factor - Vehicle type (heavy vehicle or not) - Speed (potential speed) Ahmed (1999) Gipps (1986a); Fritzsche (1994); FHWA (1996); Yang (1997); Ahmed (1999); Hidas (2002, 2005) Sparmann (1978); Oketch (2000) Sparmann (1978); Gipps(1986a); Fritzsche (1994); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2002, 2005) Gipps (1986a); FHWA (1996); Hidas (2002) Sparmann (1978); Gipps (1986a); FHWA (1996); Yang (1997); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2002, 2005) Sparmann (1978) ; Fritzsche (1994); FHWA (1996); Wei (2000) Gipps (1986a); Yang (1997); Hidas (2002, 2005) Sparmann (1978); Gipps (1986a) ; Fritzsche (1994); FHWA (1996); Yang (1997); Ahmed (1999); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2002, 2005) Gipps (1986a); Yang (1997); Ahmed (1999); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2005) Yang (1997) Gipps (1986a); FHWA (1996); Yang (1997); Wei (2000); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2002, 2005) FHWA (1996); Yang (1997), Ahmed (1999) Study

- Nearside or offside (slow or fast lane) - The location of the obstruction on the target lane (or lane blockage, queuing length) - The presence of heavy vehicles The driving conditions of the current lane - The location of the obstruction on the current lane (or lane blockage, lane drop, lane merging, queuing length) - Headway - Regulations (or lane use restriction, bus lane, shared straight-turning lane) - Speed (current speed, desired speed, potential speed, speed difference)

- The presence of heavy vehicles (or slow vehicles) - Traffic density Destination - Distance (or time) to the intended turn - Number of lane changes required

Model types The lane selection models can largely be divided into two groups according to the technique employed to decide the choice behaviour: the deterministic rule-based models and the random utility models. The former employs a set of rules to describe the choice behaviour. For example, in a study conducted in 1978 (cited in Toledo, 2007), Sparmann linked the lane-changing behaviour to the locations of obstructions which were described by psychophysical thresholds. Fritzsche (1994) and the traffic simulation software,
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CORSIM (FHWA, 1996), also assumed that the lane-changing behaviour was triggered by thresholds of speeds and headways. Gipps (1986a) developed a lane-changing model by using a set of decision rules. In his model, the drivers selected the lane according to the priority of these rules. Oketch (2000) used fuzzy logic rules to describe the lane-changing decisions. Hidas (2002) employed a similar model to describe the lane-changing behaviour. In addition, Wei et al. (2000) conducted an empirical study and developed a set of decision rules to describe the lane-changing behaviour in two-lane urban arterials.
Gipps, 19 86a

The random utility models for describing the lane selection behaviour have mainly been developed in MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Yang (1997), Ahmed (1999) and Toledo (2003) have used random utility models to describe the lane-changing behaviour. They regarded the lane-changing behaviour as a sequence of decision-making processes, in which three steps were involved, including the decision for changing lane, the choice of the target lane and the gap acceptance in the target lane. The discrete choice model framework was used to model the drivers’ lane-changing decision process. Model calibration The parameters of rule-based models have seldom been calibrated due to the model structure. The decision rules for these models are developed according to the observations of researchers. Gipps (1986a) and Hidas (2002) did not offer frameworks for estimating the model parameters. Wei et al. (2000) linked the lane-changing behaviour to the distance to the intended turn and the headways. They estimated the thresholds of headways by using vehicular trajectory data. The technique of random utility modelling provides a neat approach to model calibration. The model calibration processes of Yang (1997), Ahmed (1999) and Toledo (2003) were conducted by the maximum likelihood approach based on vehicular trajectory data.

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Discussions From the studies mentioned above, there are some issues which are worthwhile to be noted and discussed to facilitate the development of the models in this study. 1) The studies reviewed have similar opinions on the factors causing lane-changing behaviour (see Table 3.1). However, since these studies were conducted in different environmental contexts, the model types they adopted were also different. 2) The rule-based models have several advantages: a) easy to understand and practice, b) easy to adjust the model and c) capable of being applied to a complex environment. However, their disadvantages are: a) no solid framework for calibrating the model parameters has been proposed and b) the interactions between different rules were not considered in these models (Toledo, 2007). 3) The random utility modelling is suitable for describing the lane selection process because lane selection is a kind of discrete choice based on the competition between the utilities of driving on different lanes. In addition, this technique provides a neat approach to model calibration. However, the model specification and calibration process for a random utility model is resource-demanding. Also, it is still not clear whether its model parameters are portable or not. Therefore, this type of models seems not appropriate to be applied in large scale urban networks with complicated contexts. 4) The lane selection models for cars must be modified before being applied to motorcycles. These models are developed based on the lane-based environment for cars. However, motorcycles travel according to the virtual lanes in their surroundings. For describing the lateral movements of motorcycles, such a characteristic should be taken into account.

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3.1.2.2 Gap acceptance models
Gap acceptance models have been developed since the 1960s (Herman and Weiss, 1961; Ahmed, 1999). The basic gap acceptance models were formulated as a binary choice problem. These models assumed whether the gap was accepted or not was determined by comparing the available gap and the critical gap. More specifically, Herman and Weiss (1961) assumed that the critical gap was exponentially distributed. In addition, Drew et al. (1967) assumed a lognormal distribution; Miller (1972) assumed it to be normally distributed. The influence of different factors upon the gap acceptance behaviour of drivers has been discussed by many studies. For example, Daganzo (1981) used a multinomial probit model to estimate the parameters of the gap acceptance behaviour. His model considered the variations of both the critical gaps and the drivers. Mahmassani and Sheffi (1981) found that the number of rejected gaps had a significant impact on critical gaps due to the impatience of drivers. Madanat et al. (1994) used the queuing time to investigate the effects of impatience on gap acceptance behaviour. Moreover, Cassidy (1995) indicated that the fit of the model could be improved by differentiating the first gap from the subsequent gaps and the gaps in the inner lane from those in the outer lane. Other parameters affecting the gap acceptance behaviour found in the literature included the type of manoeuvres, speeds of vehicles, geometric characteristics and sight distances, the type of control in the intersection, the presence of pedestrians, police activities and daylight conditions (Toledo, 2007). When applying the gap acceptance behaviour to the lane-changing manoeuvre, both the lead gap (the gap to the oblique front vehicle in the target lane) and the lag gap (the gap to the oblique rear vehicle in the target lane) are important factors. Gipps (1986a) used the deceleration rate of the lag vehicle (the oblique rear vehicle in the target lane) as the threshold of the gap acceptance behaviour. This threshold was calculated by the
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braking deceleration that the lag vehicle had to apply to react to the presence of the new preceding vehicle. Ahmed (1999) developed a discrete choice model to describe the gap acceptance behaviour. His model allowed different sets of parameters for both the mandatory lane change and the discretionary lane change situations. The former situation had lower critical gaps than the latter situation due to the fact that drivers under the mandatory lane-changing conditions usually behave more aggressively. In congested traffic, the headways between vehicles are small. Thus, the acceptable gaps may not be available. Under such circumstances, a successful lane-changing manoeuvre relies on the cooperation between the subject vehicle and the lag vehicle. The factors influencing the lane-changing behaviour are the lead relative speed, the distance in which the lane change must be completed, the length of the gap and the aggressiveness of the subject and the lag drivers (Ahmed, 1999, Hidas, 2002). Discussions There are two significant differences in the gap acceptance behaviour between car drivers and motorcyclists. First, for motorcycles and passenger cars, their requirements for the lateral width of the gap are different. The lateral width of the gap needed for a car is generally equal to the width of the lane. However, the lateral width of the gap that a motorcyclist requires is narrower because he can travel alongside other vehicles. Thus, a motorcycle can easily merge into a congested main road at a non-signalised junction by using the road shoulder or some lateral clearances, but under similar traffic conditions, a passenger car has to queue for an accepted gap. This characteristic gives motorcycles much more flexibility in determining the accepted gap. The other significant difference to be pointed out is that the differentiation between the driving conditions, such as the mandatory and discretionary lane changes, is not a critical issue for motorcycles. The main reason is that motorcycles have more lateral freedom in traffic flow. In addition, their accepted gaps are extremely small (Ahuja, 2001)
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and narrow (as described above) and so they are more likely to pull out into small gaps (Horswill and Helman, 2003). As a result, the gap acceptance behaviour of motorcycles could be more relevant to their aggressive levels, rather than their driving conditions.

3.1.3 Summary
The findings of the reviews above can be concluded and summarised as follows: 1) The conventional car-following and lane-changing models are developed based on the assumption of lane-based flow. These lane-based models cannot describe the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles properly. The main reason is that the lateral position of the motorcycle is more likely to be a continuous variable rather than a discrete variable. This phenomenon is commonly observed in congested urban networks where motorcycles usually make progress without considering much of the lane discipline. As a sequence, it seems inappropriate to apply these conventional models to mixed traffic flow. 2) Models that fail to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles could cause serious errors in the estimation of mixed traffic flow, particularly when the number of motorcycles is large or when the flow is crowded. For example, the motorcycle behaviour such as filtering, progressing alongside another vehicle in the same lane, tailgating by aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle and oblique following will increase the flow density significantly. Thus, the capacity of the flow will be underestimated when these behaviour patterns are not considered in the traffic simulation models.

3.2 Modelling of mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles
The techniques used to simulate motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic are reviewed below. These techniques are divided into two groups: the microscopic approaches and the
46

macroscopic approaches. This section starts with the introduction of the category of microscopic approaches and ends with a detailed account of the macroscopic approaches.

3.2.1 Microscopic approaches
The microscopic models describing the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow are divided into three categories: the lateral moving models, the longitudinal moving models and the cellular automata models. These models will be introduced in turn.

3.2.1.1 Lateral moving models
The conventional lane-changing models which describe the lane-based movements of vehicles are unsuitable for describing the lateral movements of motorcycles (see Section 3.1.2). Due to the non-lane-based and narrow natures of motorcycles, they can make effective lateral movements without changing lanes. Therefore, it is necessary to differentiate lateral moving behaviour of motorcycles from the lane-changing behaviour. Cho and Wu (2004) suggested that the lateral position of a motorcycle was decided by the positions of the nearest vehicles at front left, front right, left, right, rear left and rear right. The relative longitudinal distance would affect the magnitude of the lateral interaction reversely. Minh et al. (2005a) conducted a study to investigate the overtaking behaviour of motorcycles and the behaviour of riding alongside other vehicles in the same lane. In this study, they suggested that the lateral distance needed for an overtaking behaviour was linearly related to the vehicle overtaken. In addition, the lateral distance between two motorcycles riding abreast was linearly related to the average speed of these two vehicles. These relationships were described by linear regression models and data collected at urban networks were used for the calibration process.

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Discussions Classically a discrete variable is used to describe the lanes where a passenger car is progressing on roads. However, the lateral position of a motorcycle is more likely to be a continuous variable. Minh et al. (2005a) modelled the lateral interactions by using linear regression equations. Their model had two limitations. Firstly, it did not take the speed difference into account. As a result, it was only suitable for describing the situations of low speed difference. When the following motorcycle was overtaking the leading motorcycle by a high speed difference, their linear regression model would misestimate the path width required. Secondly, in reality, the relationship between the required path width and the speeds was not linearly related. For example, in the motorway, the average speed could be as high as 100 km/hr, but the lane width did not necessarily increase in proportion to the speeds. Another point needs to be discussed is the calibration of the models. It is difficult to obtain a data set of motorcycle trajectories for microscopic studies because of their erratic two-dimensional movements, particularly when the lateral movements within a lane cannot be neglected. For example, no calibration has been performed on the model of Cho and Wu (2004). The lack of empirical data could be the reason. However, Minh et al. (2005a) have presented the calibration results based on the vehicular trajectories extracted from video footage. Their experience showed that the video recording method was capable of obtaining the trajectory data for motorcycle behaviour studies.

3.2.1.2 Longitudinal following models
The longitudinal following model describes the interaction between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle in front. This behaviour pattern is similar to the conventional car-following behaviour, but most of the longitudinal following models for motorcycles will consider the effects of lateral moving behaviour patterns.
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When Cho and Wu (2004) conducted a study to simulate the behaviour of motorcycles in mixed traffic, they developed a ‘spacing model’ (Newell, 1961) to describe the longitudinal movements. In their model, the speed of the subject motorcycle at next time step was supposed to be a function of the speeds of both vehicles, the desired speed of the subject motorcycle, the space headway, the maximum acceleration and deceleration and a safety margin. In addition, Cho and Wu categorised the oblique following behaviour as a type of longitudinal following. In order to deal with the condition of oblique following, a weight function was introduced to describe the effects of lateral position difference on the longitudinal headway. As the lateral position difference between the two vehicles was larger, the following distance became smaller. Lan and Chang (2004) developed an ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) model to described the vehicle following behaviour of motorcycles. They linked the acceleration rate of the subject motorcycle to the following distance, the speed of the preceding vehicle and the speed difference. Based on the results, they concluded that the ANFIS model performed better than the GM model. Minh et al. (2006) specified two GM-like models that applied to both car-following and free-decelerating conditions of motorcycles behind the stop line. The deceleration of the subject motorcycle at next time step was supposed to be a function of the speed difference, the speed of the subject motorcycle and the space headway. However, for modelling the of movements of motorcycles, it might sometimes face the difficulties of how to define whether a motorcycle was following another vehicle longitudinally or obliquely due to the narrow and non lane-based natures of motorcycles. To deal with this issue, Minh et al. (2006) developed a model to calculate the required width for the progression of motorcycles. Thus, the leading vehicle of a motorcycle could be determined and accordingly the longitudinal following distance could be calculated.

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Discussions The longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles is similar to the conventional car-following behaviour. However, the modelling of the former behaviour is more complicated because it has to consider the effects of the lateral position. For example, it is observed that motorcycles will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle, as discussed in Chapter 2. In addition, due to the non-lane-based nature of motorcycles, the leading vehicle of a motorcycle cannot be defined merely by the lane. Therefore, there is a vague status between vehicle-following regime and read-to-overtake regime. Cho and Wu (2004) and Minh et al. (2006) have tried to deal with the interaction between the longitudinal headway and the lateral position, but Lan and Chang (2004) did not pay attention to this issue. In the study of Cho and Wu (2004), the oblique following was categorised as the longitudinal following behaviour and a weight function was used to describe the effects of lateral position on longitudinal headway. In the study of Minh et al. (2006), the required width for a motorcycle on roads was modelled by a linear regression equation and so the leading vehicle could be recognised. However, the techniques to describe the effects of the lateral position on vehicle movements were just at the preliminary stage. For example, the weight function in Cho and Wu (2004) was a simple model which considers only the lateral position difference of the two vehicles. The required width for the progression of a motorcycle in Minh et al. (2006) was modelled simply by using a linear regression equation. How to integrate the effects of the lateral movements into the longitudinal following behaviour is a challenge which the studies focusing on mixed traffic flow modelling will face.

3.2.1.3 Cellular automata models
Apart from the mathematical equations mentioned above, some studies adopted cellular automata modelling to direct the movements of motorcycles in a simulation.
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Conventionally, the cellular automata model is applied to the simulation of homogeneous traffic flow. Each cell unit usually represents the basic space that a vehicle needs. In order to accommodate more than one type of vehicles into a cellular automata model, non-identical particle sizes are assigned to represent different modes of transport. Ahuja (2001) used a cellular automata-like approach to simulate the heterogeneous traffic flow. The front, rear and lateral gaps accepted by each vehicle type were measured and added to vehicle dimension to represent the road space occupied effectively by the vehicle type. The size of a cell unit was decided according to the width of the road space needed for the smallest vehicle type, which was 0.606 m for a bicycle. Each vehicle type was assigned a certain number cell units to reflect the road space required. Then, rules for moving, overtaking and halting were set to direct the movements of vehicles. Lan and Chang (2005) and Lan and Hsu (2006) employed cellular automata models to describe mixed traffic containing motorcycles. In order to deal with the situation of more than one mode of transport into this cellular automata model, these studies used non-identical particle sizes to represent different modes of transport, 6 × 2 cell units for a passenger car and 2 × 1 for a motorcycle. Each cell unit accounted for 1.25 × 1.25 m2. In addition, two cellular automata rules were set to direct the movements of the vehicles: the forward moving rule described the acceleration and deceleration of the vehicles; the lane-changing rule described their lateral movement behaviour. Finally, this model was employed to assess the effects of lane widths and traffic compositions on flow. The motorcycle equivalents were also estimated by using this model. Lan and Chang, 2005 Discussions Cellular automata modelling has become an important microscopic simulating technique for complex behaviour (Blue and Adler, 2001). It has the strength to simulate vehicles in traffic flow mainly due to its straightforward algorithms and its efficiency at the use of computational resources (Nagel et al., 1997). However, this technique still has a
51

limitation when it is applied to the mixed traffic simulation. For simulating homogeneous traffic, one can easily develop a set of intuitively understandable behavioural rules for directing movements of vehicles and this simulation tool is able to produce surprisingly realistic results (Nagel et al., 1996). However, when applying the cellular automata to heterogeneous traffic, whether the rule set is capable of describing the interactions between different vehicle types will become a critical question. Here are some suggestions for this issue: 1) The lane-based nature of the cellular automata modelling: In the lane-based traffic, the widths of vehicles are not a critical issue for traffic simulation and the lateral clearance between vehicles is useless space. However, the lateral position and the lateral gap are important factors for the manoeuvres of a motorcycle. These factors influence most of motorcycles’ unique movements, but the grid-based cell unit cannot represent these factors properly. Take the filtering behaviour for an example. In the real world, the path for a motorcyclist to filter through is dynamically formed by the lateral clearances between vehicles. A cellular automata system cannot mimic the subtle difference in the widths of vehicles. Thus, it is possible to result in misestimating the efficiency of motorcycles’ filtering behaviour. 2) The interactions between vehicles: When modelling a heterogeneous traffic flow, one should consider not only the sizes of different vehicle types, but also the particular interactions between these vehicle types. However, the studies of Lan and Chang (2005) and Lan and Hsu (2006) did not take the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles into account. Under these circumstances, it is a question whether the cellular automata model is capable of producing ‘surprisingly realistic results’ (Nagel et al., 1996) for mixed traffic containing motorcycles by using such simple rules.
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3.2.2 Macroscopic approaches
Motorcycles are observed filtering and moving to the head of queues during the red light. In addition, they enjoy a burst at the beginning of green at a signalised intersection (Hsu et al., 2003). Thus, the behaviour of motorcycles at signalised intersections is an interesting issue for the modelling of motorcycle behaviour. Two studies using macroscopic approaches to describe the behaviour of motorcycles at signalised intersections are reviewed. Powell’s (2000) tried to estimate the number of motorcycles which were able to filter to the head of a queue. His work was inspired by the study of May and Montgomery (1986), who reported that the PCU (Passenger Car Unit) value of motorcycles measured in Bangkok was as low as 0 during the first 6 sec of the effective green time and was around 0.53 to 0.65 afterwards. Based on such an observation, Powell (2000) further developed a macroscopic model to estimate the motorcycles which were able to approach zero-PCU zone. He assumed that the number of motorcycles able to filter to the head of a queue was linked to the arriving timing of the motorcycles, the structure of the kinematic waves (Lighthill and Whitham, 1957), the geometrical layout of the road and the composition of the vehicle types. Finally, a linear regression model was developed to describe this statistical relationship. Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005) used linear regression to estimate the effects of motorcycles and the storage space behind the stop line on the start-up lost time of passenger cars. They collected data from two intersections, one with storage space and the other without. Their results showed that the appearance of motorcycles affected the start-up lost time of passenger cars significantly at both intersections. In addition, they found that the start-up lost time of passenger cars was linearly related to the number of motorcycles in the queue. At the intersections with and without the storage space, each motorcycle contributed an increase of 0.09 sec and 0.16 sec to the start-up lost time
53

respectively. These results provided useful information for the layout design of an intersection. Discussions The factors that affect the filtering behaviour are well considered in the study of Powell (2000). However, as discussed in his study, he did not take the capacity of the motorcycle storage at the front of the queue into consideration. Thus, this model could overestimate the number of motorcycles in the storage because this model did not constrain the capacity of the storage. Similarly, the stopping wave of motorcycles should also be taken into account. The above problem is the limitation of a macroscopic approach. The relationships among the motorcycles in the zero-PCU zone, the area of zero-PCU zone and the area of the motorcycle storage at the head of the queue are not linearly related. Their relationships are highly dependent on the layout of the intersection. When the storage zone is small, the zero-PCU area can extend or shift to the lateral clearances between passenger cars. This means that a motorcycle needs not filter to the head of the queue, but its PCU value still can be 0. This condition, however, is not consistent with the basic assumption of this study. Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005) used a macroscopic approach to describe the effects of an advanced stop line. However, they did not take the width of lanes into account. A wider lane will facilitate the filtering and lateral following behaviour of motorcycles. Since such behaviour patterns do not affect the headway of passenger cars, passenger cars tend to enjoy a shorter start-up lost time on a wider lane. In addition, the width of vehicles can affect motorcycles’ filtering and lateral following behaviour as well. Therefore, the results of this study have the limitation of applying to other intersections.

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3.2.3 Summary
Based on the literature discussed above, each approach has its pros and cons. The microscopic models are better able to deal with the mixed traffic flow due to their flexibility. However, to obtain a useful data set for microscopic models is resource-demanding. The model calibration and validation processes for microscopic models are also challenging tasks. In addition, the cellular automata model cannot represent the important characteristic behaviour pattern properly due to its difficulty with describing the subtle differences in lateral clearances between vehicles. In comparison, the macroscopic approaches are not flexible about altering the modelling scenario and environmental settings, although they are easier in collecting the data required and more efficient at the use of computational resources when simulating the traffic.

3.3 Conclusions and discussions
From the literature reviewed above, the characteristics of the development of motorcycle movement modelling can be concluded as follows: 1) Not a popular topic: In comparison to the diverse and well-developed car-following models, the development of the models for motorcycle behaviour is just at the preliminary stage. Only a few studies have been conducted in this field. 2) Asia-related: Most of the studies on this topic are related to Asian countries, directly or indirectly. This can be explained by the popular use of motorcycles in these countries and the problems that motorcycles have caused in these areas. 3) From late 1990s: It has been found that little research into motorcycle behaviour modelling had been conducted before the late 1990s. After the late 1990s, there were several factors leading to the emergence of these studies, particularly in
55

Asian countries, for example, the usage of motorcycles, the availability of the research tools, etc. 4) Technology depended: It is believed that the availability of the trajectory data is of great importance in conducting a microscopic traffic study concerning motorcycle movements in mixed traffic. Several studies have indicated that the technique to obtain high quality data with low cost has become available since the late 1990s (e.g. Bonneson and Fitts, 1995; Wei et al., 1999). improvement also has a positive effect on the research in this field. A large number of studies focusing on the safety characteristics of motorcycling have been conducted in Western countries, but studies on the standard transportation issues of traffic flow effects have largely been neglected (Wigan, 2002). Some people may argue that motorcycling should not be encouraged because of the safety issue and the research on the mixed flow traffic containing motorcycles seems not so critical. However, the presence of a large number of motorcycles has already been an existing problem in Asian countries and this problem cannot be overlooked. In addition, as motorcycling has the potential to be the solution for personal door-to-door transport in the congested urban networks in the near future (actually, it has served well to gain mobility for those motorcycle-driven societies), this topic deserves more attention. Based on the above discusses, it is clear that there is currently a lack of knowledge about the management of the presence of a large number of motorcycles, particularly on modelling the interaction between the longitudinal and lateral movements of vehicles. This study proposes to overcome this problem by focusing on capturing the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles. This will be described in the following chapters. This

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4 The Models
In Chapter 2, the fundamental elements which cause the unique behaviour pattern of motorcycles have been extracted. As the complexity theory assumes that complexity can emerge from simple rules, this study then further suggested that the motorcycle behaviour can be described by modelling these basic elements. Three models are then proposed to describe these basic elements, namely the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. A detailed account of the development of these three models will be provided in this chapter.

4.1 The longitudinal headway model
The longitudinal headway refers to the following distance in the situation that the subject vehicle is following directly behind a preceding vehicle. It is observed that the longitudinal headways of motorcycles vary with the relative position to the leading vehicle. Also, the swerving manoeuvre of motorcycles is assumed to affect their following distance. Based on such an observation and assumption, the vehicle-following model that integrates the scenarios with and without the consideration of swerving is developed.

4.1.1 The minimum following distance without swerving manoeuvres
There are two strategies that a motorcyclist is likely to adopt in order to avoid a collision: slowing down in time and dodging away in time. The former strategy means that a motorcyclist applies brakes and reduces his speed to avoid a possible collision. This principle of collision avoidance is usually employed to estimate the safety distance for lane-based traffic. By using this strategy, the minimum following distance is a function of the speeds, braking decelerations of the relevant vehicles and the reaction time of the
57

motorcyclist. This can be described by the equations of motion:
2 2 v' n−1 = vn−1 + 2bn−1d n−1 , where

(4.1)

vn v'n dn bn

: the initial speed of vehicle n, : the final speed of vehicle n, : the stopping distance of vehicle n and : the braking deceleration of vehicle n under the circumstance of no swerving, bn < 0. The stopping distance of the leading vehicle is describe as Equation (4.2) as the

final speed is 0 m/sec.
d n−1 = −
2 vn−1 . 2bn−1

(4.2)

The stopping distance of the following vehicle should take its reaction time into consideration, given by:
d n = vnτ −
2 vn , where 2bn

(4.3)

: the reaction time. In order to avoid a collision, the following distance should be larger than the difference between the stopping distances between these two vehicles. Thus, the minimum following distance without swerving, Dunswerving is formulated as:
2 2 Dunswerving = dn - dn-1= vnτ − vn + vn−1 ,

2bn

2bn−1

(4.4)

where Dunswerving is the longitudinal following distance calculated from the front of the motorcycle n to the rear of the preceding vehicle n-1.

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4.1.2 The minimum following distance with swerving manoeuvres
In addition to the strategy of slowing down in time, another strategy a motorcyclist tends to adopt to avoid a rear-end collision is to dodge away in time. Due to the narrow and agile nature of motorcycles, they have the advantage of using the clearance aside the preceding vehicle efficiently. This clearance then becomes a sheltering space for motorcycles to escape from a possible collision. The easier they are able to access this clearance, the shorter following distances they would like to maintain. As a result, it is observed that a motorcycle is capable of following a preceding car by an extremely small safety gap when this motorcycle is aligning to the lateral edge of the car. However, when the motorcycle is aligning to the centre of the car, it needs a larger following gap (illustrated in Figure 4.1).

B

A
Minimum following distance

C

Figure 4.1 The minimum following distance of motorcycles

In order to avoid collision by using a swerving manoeuvre, a motorcycle has to shift a lateral distance of dw during a certain period of time tw. Assuming that the lateral speed of the following motorcycle vw is a constant, tw can be described as tw = dw , where vw

(4.5)

dw tw

: the lateral distance needed for avoiding a collision, : the time needed for making the lateral movement dw and
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vw

: the lateral speed of a motorcycle. When a motorcyclist is carrying out a swerving manoeuvre, the minimum

longitudinal safety gap for this motorcycle is shorter than that under the condition of no swerving. This is illustrated in Figure 4.2.

Distance
d4 d3 d2 Db Dnunswerving d1 tw ta tb Da Dc

The trajectory of the rear bumper of the leading vehicle n-1
A B

The trajectory of the front bumper of the following motorcycle n

Time
tc

(a)

The following distance without swerving (b)

The motorcycle dodges away and has saved a space to avoid collision (c)

Figure 4.2 The space-time trajectories showing minimum following distance of a motorcycle

Figure 4.2a shows the time-space trajectory of two vehicles. Curve A is the trajectory of the rear bumper of the leading vehicle and curve B is the trajectory of the front bumper of the following vehicle. Thus, the vertical distance between these two curves represents the following distance between the two vehicles. Under the unswerving condition, as shown in Figure 4.2b, when the following vehicle senses the leading vehicle decelerating at time ta, it will apply brakes after a delay of the reaction time . In order to stop in time to avoid a collision, the following vehicle has to maintain a safety gap Dunswerving. This relationship has been described in Equation (4.4). However, when the following vehicle swerves off to the left of the leading vehicle
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soon after the rider starts to brake at time tb, he is able to avoid the collision with an additional margin of Da, as shown in Figure 4.2c. Therefore, the minimum following distance is reduced to Dunswerving -Da, which is equal to Db-Dc, given by:
∆Dnswerving = D
unswerving

-Da = Db-Dc
(4.6)

In Equation (4.6), Dc is the distance that the preceding vehicle has travelled from time ta to time tc, given by
1 w w Dc = vn −1 (τ + tn ) + bn −1 (τ + tn ) 2 , 2

(4.7)

whereas Db is the distance that the following motorcycle has travelled from time ta to time tc: 1 w2 w Db = vnτ + vntn + bntn . 2

(4.8)

swerving Therefore, ∆Dn in Equation (4.6) is formulated as:

1 w2 1 swerving w w w ∆Dn = (vnτ + vnt n + bnt n ) − [vn−1 (τ + t n ) + bn−1 (τ + t n ) 2 ] 2 2

(4.9)

When a motorcycle is swerving away, its braking deceleration should be milder than that without swerving. Therefore, a variable representing the braking deceleration under the circumstance of swerving, b', is introduced to replace b, b'<0. Therefore, the
swerving minimum following distance for a motorcycle to avoid collisions by swerving, ∆Dn ,

can be formulated by combining Equations (4.5) and (4.9):
swerving ∆Dn = [vnτ + vn (

d nw dw dw 1 ' dw 1 ) + bn ( n ) 2 ] − {vn−1[τ + ( n )] + bn−1[τ + ( n )]2 } w w w v 2 v v 2 vw

(4.10)

∆Dnswerving = ∆vn (τ +

d nw dw 2d w 1 ' 1 ) + (bn − bn−1 )( n ) 2 − bn−1τ (τ + wn ) , w w v 2 v 2 v
61

(4.11)

where vn is the speed difference, vn = vn -vn-1.

4.1.3 The minimum longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle
Equations (4.4) and (4.11) represent two constraints on the following distances of motorcycles. Given that a motorcyclist is steering his bike based on the principle of collision avoidance, the minimum longitudinal following distance he maintains, Dmin, can be formulated as min{ Dunswerving , Dswerving }, i.e.
w w w 2 2 min ∆Dn =min{ vnτ − vn + vn−1 , ∆vn (τ + d n ) + 1 (bn' − bn−1 )( d n ) 2 − 1 bn−1τ (τ + 2dwn ) }. w w

2bn

2bn−1

v

2

v

2

v

(4.12)

This model implies that a swerving manoeuvre is always available for a motorcycle. In lane based traffic, the clearances between lanes provide motorcycles pathways to make progress. The opportunities for swerving to these pathways are always available in a one-on-one vehicular interaction. However, when the clearance or pathway is blocked by other vehicles, for example, the right pathway of motorcycle B is blocked by motorcycle A in Figure 4.1, this model is not sufficient for describing such a multi-vehicular interaction. Under this condition, other models such as the oblique & lateral headway model or the path choice model should be introduced to describe the behaviour of motorcycle B. These models are developed in the following sections.

4.1.4 Summary
The longitudinal headway model is developed based on the equations of motion which present the kinematic movements of vehicles. This model focuses on depicting the phenomenon that a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle. From the literature review, it is found that a critical limitation of the existing models is unable to deal with the interaction between the following distance and the lateral position of a motorcycle properly. This model tries to overcome this
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limitation. The calibration and further specifications of this model are provided in Section 6.1.3.

4.2 The oblique & lateral headway model
The oblique headway is the safety distance a motorcyclist maintains when he is following another vehicle obliquely, i.e. following at the rear left or rear right of a preceding vehicle. Similarly, the lateral headway is the safety distance a motorcyclist maintains when he is overtaking another vehicle, or following another vehicle laterally. These two types of headway are differentiated according to the following angles. Thus, they can be integrated into a single model as the following angle is taken into consideration in this model.

4.2.1 The oblique headway
When a motorcyclist is following another vehicle obliquely, assessing the following distance by employing the equations of motion would be complicated since the principle of maintaining the following distance is not merely to avoid a rear-end collision. Some lateral movements and unobservable psychological factors are also involved. Thus, this oblique headway is described by a regression model. Several assumptions are made to facilitate the modelling: 1) The factors that affect the oblique following distance are divided into two components, the longitudinal gap and lateral gap. 2) It is assumed that there is an indifference curve of the oblique following distances showing different combinations of the longitudinal gaps and lateral gaps. At each point on the curve, a motorcyclist has no preference for one point over another under a given traffic condition, i.e. the following distances on this curve represent the same level of satisfaction for the motorcyclist.
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3) The shape of this indifference curve is assumed to be either an elliptic curve or a line, as illustrated in Figure 4.3.

(a)

(b)

Figure 4.3 The schematic diagram of the oblique following relationship

4) The longitudinal gap is assumed to be a function of the following angle, the speed difference and the speed of the leading vehicle, whereas the lateral gap is assumed to be a function of the following angle and the speed difference. Accordingly, the oblique following distance is related to the longitudinal gap and the lateral gap. The indifference curve can be described by either the equation of an elliptic curve (Equation (4.13)) or the equation of the hypotenuse of a right triangle (Equation (4.14)):
oblique 2 2 ∆Dn = alongitudinal cos 2 θ + alateral sin 2 θ

(4.13)
oblique ∆Dn =

alongitudinal × alateral alongitudinal sin θ + alateral cos θ
(4.14)

oblique where ∆Dn is the oblique following distance,

is the following angle (see Figure

4.4). alongitudinal is the longitudinal factor and alateral is the lateral factor.

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Figure 4.4 The schematic diagram of the oblique following distance

The longitudinal factor, alongitudinal, acts as the semimajor axis of the ellipse in Equation (4.13), or as the longer leg of the right triangle in Equation (4.14). It is linked to the speed difference vn and the speed of the leading vehicle vn-1:
alongitudinal =
long0

+

long1

vn +

long2

vn-1,

(4.15)

where

long0,

long1

and

long2

are coefficients.

Similarly,

lateral

is the lateral factor, acting as the semiminor axis of the ellipse or

the shorter leg of the triangle. The speed difference vn is used to describe this variable:
lateral = lat0 + lat1

vn,

(4.16)

where

lat0

and

lat1

are coefficients.

Finally, the oblique following distance can be formulated by combining the above three equations:
oblique ∆Dn = (α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) 2 cos 2 θ + (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn ) 2 sin 2 θ .

(4.17)
oblique ∆Dn =

(α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn ) (α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) sin θ + (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn ) cos θ
(4.18)

4.2.2 The lateral headway
The lateral headway is the safety distance between a motorcycle and another vehicle
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aside when the motorcyclist is overtaking or lateral following. This type of headway is a special case of the oblique headway with the following angle equal to 90 . Thus, the
lateral headway is a function of the speed difference between these two vehicles.
lateral ∆Dn = α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn

(4.19)

Figure 4.5 The schematic diagram of the overtaking relationship

4.2.3 Summary
The oblique & lateral headway model describes the headway distribution pattern of motorcycles when they are following the preceding vehicles obliquely (or laterally). The headway is modelled in a two-dimensional manner to depict the interaction between the longitudinal movements and lateral movements of motorcycles. It can be applied to the modelling of oblique following behaviour and overtaking behaviour of motorcycles.

4.3 The path choice model
In the previous sections, the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model have been developed to imitate the basic one-on-one interactions between a motorcycle and another vehicle based on the principle of collision avoidance. Although these collision-avoidance based models are useful in describing how a motorcycle maintains a proper safety distance, they have limitations on representing how a motorcyclist tries to choose a path actively and creatively to make his way through the
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traffic jam when he is involved in a cluster of vehicles. Therefore, a model for describing motorcyclists’ decision-making process of the path choice behaviour is required. Based on the dynamic virtual lane-based nature (see Section 2.1.2) of motorcycles, the path choice model aims to describe how a motorcyclist chooses the virtual lane. Such a choice acts as the short-term plan for whether or not to make a lateral movement when a motorcyclist is progressing in traffic. There are several factors involving in the decision-making process. These factors are elaborated in the following and the conceptual illustration of these factors is shown in Figure 4.6. 1) The speeds of the preceding vehicle and the objects beside the preceding

vehicle. These speeds reflect the driving conditions of the dynamic virtual lanes
that these vehicles (or objects) are currently in. When the motorcyclist is not satisfied with the leading speed, he is likely to change his course for getting a better driving condition. Otherwise the probability of staying on the current course is usually high. It is then safe to say that the speeds of the objects in front or at the oblique front will affect the choice of the following motorcyclist. 2) The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position. If the motorcyclist has to leave the current course, he will choose a route which is closer to the current position. The lateral distance he has to move to overtake will affect his choice. 3) The lateral clearances beside the preceding vehicle. The motorcyclist will move toward a route with a larger clearance if he is not satisfied with the current position. 4) The gap acceptance. The subject motorcycle will be constrained by the vehicles aside or behind. Therefore, the gap acceptance of the subject motorcycle will affect its lateral moving behaviour. 5) The size of the vehicle near the path. It is observed that motorcyclists do not frequently drive alongside or behind a heavy vehicle for some reasons. For
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example, the heavy vehicle is likely to obstruct the view field of the following vehicle, may cause more dust and emissions and may lead to more serious injuries in an accident. 6) A lateral movement usually does not finish in one time step. Therefore, once a motorcycle starts to move laterally, the choice of time t+1 is affected by the choice of time t.

The vehicle near the left path The left path (3) (2) (3) The subject motorcycle (2) The right path (1) (1)

(1) The lateral clearance beside the preceding vehicle. (2) The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position. (3) The interaction from the vehicle behind or aside.

The vehicle near the right path

Figure 4.6 The schematic diagram of the path choice decision

The path choice behaviour is proposed to be modelled by using a multinomial logit model. The utility of a motorcyclist n to choose a path i can be express as:

U in = Vin + ε in , for all i ∈ Cn ,
where Vin is the systematic component,

(4.20)
in

is the random component and Cn is the choice

set. There are three alternatives in the choice set Cn. As shown in Figure 4.6, when the subject motorcycle is not satisfied with the current position, it usually has three paths to move on: a) shifting leftwards, b) keeping straight and c) shifting rightwards. Given that
68

the systematic components of these alternatives chosen by motorcycle n are Vl, Vc and Vr respectively, then these alternatives can be formulated according to the attributes discussed earlier. They are:
Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1 1

speedl + speedc+ speedr+

2 2 2

forceFl +

3 3 3

sizel + sizec

4

distl +

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

forceFc + forceFr +

+

1

sizer +

4

distr +

5

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(4.21)
7

where

l

and

r

are the alternative-specific constants.

1,

2,

3…,

are unknown

coefficients to be estimated. The attributes are defined as:
speed forceF size dist clear forceR last : the speed of the vehicle near the path,

: the interaction with the vehicle ahead,
: the size of the vehicle near the path, : the lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position, : the lateral clearances beside the preceding vehicle, : the interaction with the vehicle aside and behind and : the choice of the last time step.

Then a multinomial logit model defines the probability for the motorcyclist n to choose path i as:

Pn (i ) =

e µVin µV e jn
j∈C n

(4.22)

where µ is the scale parameter. Since this parameter is not identifiable, conventionally an arbitrary value, 1, is given (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985a). Equations (4.21) and (4.22) describe the path choice behaviour of a motorcyclist. This model adopts the concept of dynamic virtual lane which is defined by the vehicles in the subject motorcycle’s surroundings. This feature is the most important factor to characterise the difference between this model and the lane-based models. The estimation
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and refinement of this model will be presented in Section 6.3.

4.4 Conclusions
Three models were proposed in this chapter, namely the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. These models aimed at describing the fundamental elements which caused the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles. In addition, these models tried to deal with the limitations found in the literature, for example, to describe the interaction between the longitudinal following distance and the lateral position, and to depict the dynamic virtual lane-based movements. It was assumed that by capturing these features, the behaviour of motorcycle could be described more accurately. The calibration and applications of these models are presented in Chapters 6 and 7.

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5 Data Collection
In Chapter 4, the models that focus on capturing motorcycle behaviour are described. To obtain proper parameters for these models, calibration has to be carried out based on field data. This chapter describes the approach to field data collection. In the first section, 5.1, the data requirements for the calibration process are described. This will clarify and facilitate the choice of data collection methods, which is discussed in the second section. In the next two sections, 5.3 and 5.4, the process of data collection, data extraction and data processing is provided. The accuracy of the database is also discussed. A summary will be presented in the final part.

5.1 Types of data required
Before describing the data collection process, a description of the types of data required is first presented. This facilitates the assessment of available data collection methods so that a proper one can be chosen. The data required can be grouped into three categories: observable data, latent data and environmental data. The data in the first two categories support the calibration process of the models described in Chapter 4, whereas the data in the last category are needed at the stage of microscopic computer simulation developed in Chapter 7. These three categories of data are described as follows:

The observable data
In this study, the observable data refer to the trajectories of a motorcycle and the vehicles in its surroundings, including their sizes. From these data, a variety of traffic parameters for the model calibration process in this study can be generated. These parameters include the basic kinematic parameters (e.g. speed, direction, acceleration and
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deceleration) and the inter-vehicular interactions (e.g. following distance and speed difference). The macroscopic parameters such as flow density can also be calculated. The collection of these observable data and the generation of the basic kinematic parameters are described later in this chapter.

The latent data
The latent data required for this study are reaction time, desired speed, desired deceleration, desired deceleration difference and desired lateral speed. These data types are important parameters for the collision avoidance models (for example, Gipps, 1981). The estimations or assumptions of these latent data are presented in Chapter 6.

The environmental data
The environmental data refer to road geometry and traffic regulations, for instance, road layout and speed limit. Motorcyclists in different environment could exhibit different types of behaviour. For example, the behavioural difference between motorcycling in urban networks and on the highway is significant. Therefore, it is necessary to capture these characteristics in the microscopic traffic simulation model developed in this study. The investigations and assumptions of the environmental data are described in Chapter 7.

5.2 Data collection method
The measurement procedures for obtaining traffic data can be largely divided into five categories. They are a) measurement at a point; b) measurement over a short section less than about 10 m; c) measurement over a length of road, usually at least 500 m; d) the use of instrumented vehicles; and e) wide-area samples obtained simultaneously from a number of vehicles, as part of Intelligent Transportation Systems (Hall, 1999). The traffic parameters of interest in this study are the highly accurate vehicular
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trajectory data. Such data are able be obtained through two procedures: the video recording method and the floating-car method. The former, based on categories c) and e) in the definition of Hall (1999), uses video cameras fixed at elevated positions to record the traffic flow whilst the floating-car method are based on categories d) and e), employing vehicles equipped with sensors to measure motions and interactions of the target vehicles. In this section, firstly the advantages and disadvantages of these two methods are discussed. Then the reasons for choosing the video recording method are given. Finally the accuracy of the data collected by this method is described.

5.2.1 Video data versus floating-car data
A major advantage of video data is that it can obtain all the trajectories and sizes of the vehicles in a traffic stream objectively. Another merit is that the video footage can be reviewed and examined repeatedly, if necessary, to guarantee the quality of the data extracted. In addition, it is an un-intrusive and naturalistic observation which ensures that the normal behaviour can be observed and the data collected are not affected by the presence of researchers. However, extracting data from video footage is an extremely labour-intensive process, which is the main disadvantage of this method. According to Taylor and Young (1988), the analysis process can take up to six times as long as the real time recording. However, even this seems to be an underestimate. Ahmed (1999) reported that an hour’s video footage requires 1,800 person-hours to process. It is understood that how much work is needed depends on the types of data required and the traffic conditions. Another disadvantage of this method is that there is only a limited survey area, around 200 m (Hidas and Wagner, 2004) to 400 m (Slinn et al., 1998), depending on the resolution of the images and the field of view of the camera. The requirement of an elevated position is also a limitation of this method.
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The advantage of the floating-car method is that the data processing is simpler than in the case of the video recording method. The video recording can obtain only a sequence of still images to which a time-consuming procedure has to be employed to get accurate parameters, whereas the floating-car method can directly collect the useful parameters, depending on the sensors employed. Another advantage of the floating-car method is that the floating car can be equipped with a wide range of sensors, including camcorders (for example, used by Olsen and Wierwille, 2001). Despite these merits, the floating-car method has some limitations. First, the data can only be collected from a limited number of instrumented vehicles. Another disadvantage is that the drivers under surveillance could behave differently than usual. In addition, the data collecting ability of this method depends on the function of the equipment fitted on the instrumented vehicle because each sensor can only acquire a certain type of information, i.e. position, speed or distance. In order to obtain a complete picture of the surroundings, the vehicles need to be well-designed and well-equipped. This will make the whole process expensive. Another limitation of this method is that the surrounding environment will affect the behaviour of the instrument vehicles and, thus, the context of the experimental environment has to be set-up carefully (Hidas and Wagner, 2004). When evaluating data collection methods, the accuracy of the data acquired is an important issue to be considered. However, it is difficult, in general, to compare the accuracy of the data obtained from these categories because the accuracy of the data collected by the floating-car method depends on the equipment used. Therefore, the comparison is not made in this section. Instead, this issue is discussed in Section 5.2.3 after the data collection method for this study has been chosen.

5.2.2 Choosing the data collection method
The calibration process in this study relies heavily on precise multiple vehicle
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trajectory data. In addition, some types of macroscopic data, such as flow density are also required. With the floating-car method, the data types collected depend on the ability of the sensors on the instrumented vehicle. An extra data type will need an additional sensor or device. This means that it is difficult and expensive to obtain some required parameters of this study, for example, detecting the trajectories of all the vehicles in surroundings. In contrast, the main strength of the video recording method is to record everything that happens in the traffic flow. In addition, video camcorders are comparatively simple and affordable, compared to the cost for the floating-car method. Therefore, the video recording method is employed by this study.

5.2.3 Accuracy of the data acquired by the video recording method
The accuracy of the video recording method depends on the pixel resolution of the video images, so the trade-off between pixel resolution and field of view has to be considered. For example, a telephoto image provides a high resolution but has a limited survey area whereas a wide angle image accommodates more information but has a limited resolution. Therefore, a camcorder with a higher definition or a larger focal length factor will be more flexible to provide data with higher accuracy. The literature shows that different extents of accuracy, from 0.3 m to 1.3 m, have been reported (for example, Hasan et al., 1997; Ahmed, 1999; Khan and Raksuntorn, 2001; Hoogendoorn et al., 2003; Hidas, 2005). If the data accuracy can reach such a standard, it should be sufficient for calibrating the models proposed in Chapter 4.

5.3 Data collection
As explained in the preceding section, the data for this study were collected by video camcorders. A highly detailed video-captured database containing information on the vehicular trajectories was built. The sequence for data collection and data processing
75

is shown in Figure 5.1.
Record traffic flow from a selected traffic link

Convert video footage to a proper digital format

Extract vehicular trajectories and vehicle sizes

Generate data required

Figure 5.1 Data collection and processing sequence

In this section, firstly the camcorder chosen for this study is described, which is followed by the descriptions of the time and site for the survey. Then the characteristics of the data extraction programme are reported. Finally the database obtained is presented.

5.3.1 Video recording equipment
The data were collected by using two Sony DCR-HC32 NTSC MiniDV digital camcorders. Sony DCR-HC32 was chosen because this model is capable of providing video images with resolution up to 720 by 480 at a frame rate of approximately 29.97 fps (frames pre second). It can record the video signal on MiniDV tape in digital form, which has the advantage over analogue of suffering little or no generation loss in recording and editing. It also facilitates the conversion, compression and backup of the video files during the data extracting process. In addition, Sony DCR-HC32 has a very large focal length factor, which equals the focal length ranged from 44 to 880 mm (Sony Corporation, 2005) of a 35 mm full-frame camera. Moreover, it is a consumer electronics product which can be obtained at an affordable price. Due to these characteristics, this model has
76

sufficient flexibility to provide video footage with high accuracy. One critical issue of using camcorders for moving object tracking is that the lens distortion of the machine should be calibrated carefully (Tsai, 1987; Hoogendoorn et al., 2003). A camcorder with lens distortion means that, under certain conditions, images from a camcorder cannot precisely depict the shape of the objects in the real world. For example, with the camcorder, a straight line is represented as a curved line. The extent of distortion is more noticeable at the edges of the images than at the centre. In photography, the lens distortion is linked to the focal length of the lens system. Usually, using wide-angle lenses tend to exhibit barrel distortions whereas the telephoto lenses lead to pincushion distortions. The distortions of the images from Sony DCR-HC32 are shown in Figure 5.2.

Telephoto zoom

Wide-angle zoom

Figure 5.2 The lens distortion test of Sony DCR-HC32

From these images, it is found that this machine controls pincushion distortions well at telephoto zooms. However, slight barrel distortions can be found at wide-angle zooms. Hence, when collecting data by using a wide-angle zoom, the correction for lens distortions is needed.

5.3.2 Time and site of the data survey
Time
The video footage was captured from 17:00 to 18:00 (British Summer Time) on
77

10th May 2005. It was a sunny afternoon in late spring, which provided good visibility for obtaining high quality video images. It should be noted that the pavement was dry when the data were collected.

Site
A section of the Victoria Embankment in London was selected for this study (Figure 5.3b). This site was chosen for two reasonsii: a) there was an overhead pedestrian bridge at the site which provided a proper high vantage point to take video footage of the traffic stream, and b) the geometric design of the link made it easy to observe the interaction between and amongst vehicles. The schematic diagram of the survey site is shown in Figure 5.3a. The details of this site are described below: 1) Geometric characteristics: The survey area, which was 80.00 m long and 8.54 m wide, was the south bound traffic stream of this link (see also Figure 5.4a). It consisted of two lanes at the far end and three lanes at the near end. At the far end, on-street parking was permitted. Two sightseeing bus stopsiii were located at the middle part of the site. The south of the near end was the stop line of a signalised pedestrian crossing. 2) Traffic characteristics in the survey area: As vehicles moved southwards from the far end, it was a two-lane traffic flow which used the road space of 8.54 m wide. However, when the on-street parking spaces or the bus stops were occupied, the width of the two-lane traffic was narrowed down from 8.54 m to around 6 m. Under these circumstances, the vehicles had to change their directions and speeds to adapt to the narrow path. Between the bus stops and the signalised pedestrian crossing, the road space was divided into three lanes.

ii iii

These traffic features described in this section remain to the present. The periods that the sightseeing buses park at these stops could last for more than 5 minutes. 78

N

On-street parking space

Survey Area

Bus Stops Signalised Pedestrian Crossing 80 m Camcorder

85 m Pedestrian Bridge Railway Bridge Pedestrian Bridge

Waterloo Bridge

(a)

Embankment Station Charing Cross Station

Survey Site River Thames

(b)

Figure 5.3 The schematic diagram of the survey siteiv

iv

The photo in Figure 5.3b was retrieved from Google Maps. 79

3) The opposing traffic stream: The opposing stream was the north bound traffic with two lanes. Between the north bound stream and the south bound stream was a central reservation, which completely separated the flows between the two directions. Thus, the north bound traffic stream did not affect the traffic of the survey site. 4) The traffic downstream: After passing the pedestrian crossing, the south bound traffic had three lanes. Although next intersection was 85 m away, from which the queue for right-turn on the outer lane could extend to the survey area. Once the queue reached the middle part of the survey area and the bus stop was loaded, there was only one lane available at this section. Thus, the south bound traffic was forced to merge from two lanes into one when passing the bus stops. The geometric and traffic characteristics of this survey area provided an environment to observe the interactions amongst vehicles, including filtering, queuing, discharging, merging, lane-changing, and stop and go behaviour. In addition, in such environment, vehicles (including motorcycles and other types of vehicles) had to interact not only with the vehicle ahead, but also with the vehicles at lateral and oblique directions. All this made this survey site suitable for observing the motorcycle behaviour patterns discussed in Section 2.3.

Equipment
Two Sony DCR-HC32 digital camcorders were set up on the pedestrian bridge to collect data. One camcorder was used to record the traffic stream (Figure 5.4a). In order to obtain a better pixel resolution, the corner of the outer lane on the near side was cropped out of the field of view. This improved the pixel resolution by around 16%. These images were captured using a focal length at the middle range of the machine, at which no correction of lens distortions was needed. The other camcorder recorded the vehicles
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from a bird’s-eye view for measuring the widths and lengths of vehicles, as shown in Figure 5.4b.

Survey area

80.00m

8.54m

(a)

(b)

Figure 5.4 Images for extracting trajectories and measuring vehicle dimensions

5.3.3 The data extracting system
The vehicular trajectories in video images can be extracted either manually or by using an automatic image processing technique. Although the use of image processing software can save a lot of time and cost, the technique for detecting vehicles which are mutually overlapping in the video images is still under development (for example, Veeraraghavan et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2006). In order to control the quality of the data, the vehicle trajectories were extracted manually in this study. To this end, a computer tool, programmed by using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0, was developed. The data extracting process in this study was similar to that of VEVID (Wei et al., 2005). First, this computer programme displayed video images on screen by a specified frame processing interval. At the same time, the researcher tracked the path of a selected target vehicle, frame by frame, by marking its positions on the screen with mouse clicks.
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Thus, a sequence of video image coordinates was obtained, which was then converted into real-world coordinates and recorded into the database. Developing a new data extracting system had many advantages. The most important one was its flexibility in expanding new functions. For example, the other software packages available at the time of the data collection did not provide some customised functions, such as the verification tools or the zoom-in function, developed in this programme. These features ensure the quality and accuracy of the data. The settings and functions of this system are described below.

5.3.3.1 User interface
Figure 5.5 shows a screenshot of this system. The user can track the trajectories of vehicles and operate this system via a Windows-based graphical user interface.

Figure 5.5 Screenshot of the new data collection system

5.3.3.2 The computer monitor and pixel resolution
In this study, an hp-1702 17-inch LCD monitor with a resolution of 1024 by 768
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pixels was employed for this data extracting work. The dimensions of the screen area are 336 mm wide by 270 mm height. The original resolution of the video footage surveyed was 720 by 480 pixels. Each pixel represented 56 mm (longitudinal) by 16 mm (lateral) on the near side and 554 mm (longitudinal) by 53 mm (lateral) on the far side of the survey area. The video images were resized to 990 by 660 pixels to facilitate data extracting when displaying on the monitor. The scales of the objects shown on the screen were 1:172 (longitudinal) and 1:46 (lateral) on the near side; 1:1,689 (longitudinal) and 1:150 (lateral) on the far side of the survey area. The details of the image quality are listed in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 The resolution of the video images
Distance from the near side (m) 0 20 40 60 80 Pixel resolution (mm/pixel) Longitudinal Lateral 56 133 241 382 554 16 25 35 44 53 Scale of objects shown on hp-1702 Longitudinal Lateral 1:172 1:404 1:734 1:1,165 1:1,689 1:46 1:72 1:98 1:124 1:150

5.3.3.3 Video format
The data extracting system uses digital video footage with AVI format as the input file. AVI (Audio Video Interleave) is a multimedia format introduced by Microsoft in 1992 as part of the Video for Windows technology. The main reason for using this format is its compatibility with the MCI (Media Control Interface) programming library provided by Microsoft. The video footage has to be converted to AVI format before it is registered to the data extracting system. The system will display the video images frame by frame, according to the given video frame processing interval. The user can then track the vehicular trajectories by mouse clicks.
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5.3.3.4 The zoom-in function
This programme can resize the images and display a selected area on the screen to facilitate data extraction. Although resizing the images improve neither the resolution nor the quality of the images, a larger picture on the screen can reduce the human error during the data extracting process.

5.3.3.5 The trajectory tracking function
This programme can display the video images by an adjustable video frame processing interval, which was set to be 1 sec in this study. The researcher is able to tracks the path of a target vehicle by clicking the mouse on a distinguishable point of the vehicle on the frames displayed. Then, this programme converts the coordinates from the selected distinguishable point to the front central point and records the trajectory. In this system, six distinguishable points for tracking the movements of vehicles are provided: front left, front central, front right, rear left, rear central and rear right points. In addition, the position of the motorcyclist’s head is also used to track the trajectory when the motorcycle is hidden behind other vehicles. These points are shown in Figure 5.6. Researchers can choose any of the six points to track the trajectory.

Front left point The head of the rider Rear left point Rear central point Rear right point Front left point Front central point Rear left point

width
Front central point Front right point

width length
Rear central point Front right point Rear right point

length

Figure 5.6 The schematic diagram of the measured dimensions of vehicles

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5.3.3.6 Projective model
When the trajectories of vehicles have been tracked, the data are recorded by using the video image coordinates, which need to be converted to the real-world coordinates (Figure 5.7) for further analyses. Hence, a projective model was built in this data extracting system to accomplish this task. Precisely inferring the three-dimensional information from the video image coordinates is computationally intensive (Tsai, 1987). The literature shows that several simplified approaches have been used for converting coordinates between two planes. These approaches are discussed below: Converting coordinates between two planes can be straightforwardly achieved by linear scaling, if these two plains are parallel and the effects of perspective are omitted. Usually, this approach is used when the video images are recorded from a bird’s-eye view, as in the study of Hoogendoorn et al. (2003). However, it is usually difficult to record the traffic flow from a vertical view angle because a very highly elevated position is needed for this view angle.

(0,0)

y video

(0,660)

(pixel)

Indication of the four reference points for calibration

(343,141)

(5.42,0.00)

y real

(m) (0.00,8.54)

xvideo
(626,488) (641,18)

Projective model
(59.05,8.54) (62.75,0.00)

xreal
(990,0) (pixel) (936,621) (990,660) (m) (80.00,0.00) (80.00,8.54)

(a) Video image coordinate system

(b) Real-world coordinate system

Figure 5.7 The conversion of the coordinates between the video image and the real world
85

When considering the effects of perspective, the conversion is more difficult. Wei et al. (2005) dealt with this issue by using ‘conversion ratios’. They marked a sequence of reference points in the study area and measured the conversion ratios between these points. The coordinates between two planes could then be converted via these conversion ratios. The main weakness of this method is the discontinuity of the conversion ratios. Between two conversion ratios, there is a gap between the real world coordinates. This will inevitably cause errors when calculating distances covering more than one reference points. Therefore, the accuracy of the conversion depends on the number of the reference points. This weakness can, however, be overcome by using a regression model to convert the coordinates as in Teknomo et al.(2000). The accuracy of this approach relies on the model setting. Some statistics measures such as r 2 can be used to examine the conversion outcomes. In photogrammetry, the mapping of the coordinates between two planes can be written as Equation (5.1) (Mikhail et al., 2001):

xreal = yreal

α1 xvideo + α 2 yvideo + α 3 α 4 xvideo + α 5 yvideo + 1 α x + α 7 yvideo + α 8 = 6 video α 4 xvideo + α 5 yvideo + 1

,

(5.1)

where ( xreal , yreal ) is the real-world coordinate, ( xvideo , yvideo ) is the video image coordinate and α1 to α8 are coefficients. This formula can convert the video image coordinates to the real world coordinates (or vice versa) after the eight coefficients have been computed. The commercial software ViVAtraffic (The ViVAtraffic-Team, 2007), Khan and Raksuntorn (2001) and Minh et al. (2006) have employed this approach for converting coordinates. To obtain the coefficients of this model, the coordinates of four reference points in the real world and their counterparts in the video images should be measured. Three of these four points must not lie in a straight line. However, this mathematical
86

model also has some limitations when adopted by this study. Firstly, the traffic stream in the real world should be on a plane, i.e. not on a concave or convex slope. Secondly, the lens distortions need to be converted in advance. In this study, since the traffic stream in the real world was on a plane and the lens distortion of the video footage was mild, Equation (5.1) was adopted to convert coordinates. The coordinate systems of the two planes are defined as in Figure 5.7. Four points were measured both from the survey area and from the video image, as listed in Table 5.2.

Table 5.2 The list of reference points
Coordinate Real-world (m) Video image (pixel) Point 1 Point 2 Point 3 Point 4 (62.57, 0.00) (80.00, 8.54) (59.05, 8.54) (5.42, 0.00) (641, 18) (937, 621) (626, 488) (343, 141)

The parameters of the model for converting coordinates from the video image to the real world were obtained as Equation (5.2) whereas the model for converting coordinates from the real world to the video image was as Equation (5.3).

xreal = yreal =

− 2.450656 xvideo + 0.193725 yvideo + 781.043850 − 0.021173 xvideo + 0.002259 yvideo + 1 − 0.084754 xvideo − 0.205340 yvideo + 58.023744 − 0.021173 xvideo + 0.002259 yvideo + 1
(5.2)

xvideo = yvideo =

− 0.647388 xreal + 3.022358 yreal + 330.269569 − 0.008735 xreal + 0.002759 yreal + 1 − 2.201130 xreal + 27.108294 yreal + 146.254507 − 0.008735 xreal + 0.002759 yreal + 1

(5.3)

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5.3.3.7 The length measuring function
This programme provides a function for measuring lengths and distances. By clicking two points on the images, this programme can calculate the distance between these two points in the real-world coordinates. This function can be used to measure the length and width of the vehicles.

5.3.3.8 Recording vehicle types
Different vehicle types usually exhibit different behaviour although some of them have similar sizes. For example, motorcycles and bicycles present different speeds and accelerations, but road spaces they occupied are similar. It is thus necessary to mark them when extracting the data. In this study, the vehicles in the video images were categorised into five groups: motorcycles, passenger cars, vans, buses and bicycles. The types of vehicles were recognised and recorded while extracting the trajectories.

5.3.3.9 The verification tools
Two mechanisms for verifying the data have been developed. One is overlaying the data to the video images, i.e. projecting the information extracted onto the original video frames by using Equation (5.3). A screenshot of this function is shown in Figure 5.5. This means that the sizes and locations of the vehicles in the database can be visually reviewed. The other verification tool is the animated display of the trajectories from a top-view angle (Figure 5.8). The animation is presented by using an orthographic coordinate system from the top-view. Hence, the movements of vehicles can then be examined without the effects of perspective. These two functions can be used to probe the manual mistakes when extracting data.

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Figure 5.8 The animated display of the extracted trajectories

5.4 The database
The whole process for extracting data from the video footage was extremely time-consuming. In this study, it required approximately 200 person-hours to produce one hour of video data, including the time for data collection, video file conversion, trajectory extracting and data cleaning. If the density of the flow in the video was higher, more time was needed. After extracting the trajectories from the video footage and some work of data processing, a database was finally built. In this section, the approach of calculating the basic data types in the database is discussed. Then a brief description of the database is presented and the accuracy of the data is described.

5.4.1 Preliminary data processing
The data processing in this study was done in two stages. The first stage was the preliminary data processing, which was carried out soon after the trajectories had been extracted. In this stage, the basic kinematic parameters of each vehicle were calculated to constitute the database. The second stage was the advanced data processing, which was the procedure of retrieving information from the established database. It was conducted before analysing the interactions between and amongst vehicles such as following distances and speed differences. The details of extracting the basic kinematic
89

characteristics are given in the subsections below whereas the advanced processing will be described in Chapter 6.

Directions of vehicles
Two types of vehicle directions were calculated by this system: the steering direction and the body direction. The steering direction is the one by which a vehicle is moving. This type of direction is usually identical with the orientation of the front wheel(s). In this study, the steering direction was used to calculate the lateral speeds of the vehicles, to estimate the longitudinal speed differences between vehicles and to calibrate the path choice model. The body direction indicates the body orientation of a vehicle, which represents the road space that this vehicle is currently occupying. In this study, the body direction was used for estimating the four corners of a vehicle. Thus, the calculation of the body direction would affect the estimation of the following distances and the calibration results of the headway models in this study. When a vehicle is changing its direction, the difference between the steering direction and the body direction is sometimes significant and not distinguishing them would affect the results of the model calibrations. The steering direction was calculated by the difference of the locations between two time steps, as shown in Figure 5.9. It was formulated as follows:

θ nsteer = tan −1 ( ,t

yn ,t − yn ,t −1 ) , where xn ,t − xn, t −1
(5.4)

steer θ n,t

: the steering direction of vehicle n at time step t; : the longitudinal position of the front central point of vehicle n at time step t; : the lateral position of the front central point of vehicle n at time step t.

xn,t yn,t

90

(xn,t,yn,t)
steer θ n,t

(xn,t-1,yn,t-1)

Figure 5.9 The conceptual illustration of the steering direction

To calculate the body direction of a vehicle by using merely the data of its trajectory can be more complex. It is linked to the wheelbase and the length between the front bumper and the front wheels. These variables are not measured in this study because they are difficult to be observed from an elevated position. Therefore, a simple equation was proposed to estimate the direction of the vehicle body, i.e. by calculating the positions of the front bumper at current time step and the rear bumper at last time step, as shown in Figure 5.10. The formula was as follows:

θ nbody = tan −1 ( ,t

yn, t − yrc , n ,t −1 ) , where xn, t − xrc , n, t −1
(5.5)

body θ n,t

: the direction of the body of vehicle n at time step t; : the longitudinal position of the rear central point of vehicle n at time step t-1; : the lateral position of the rear central point of vehicle n at time step t-1.

xrc,n,t-1 yrc,n,t-1

(xn,t,yn,t)
body θ n,t

(xrc,n,t-1,yrc,n,t-1)

Figure 5.10 The conceptual illustration of the body direction

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Edges of vehicles
In this study, both two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles are assumed to be rectangular, although their shape could be irregular from the top-view. Thus, the area occupied by each vehicle could be represented by the four corners of a rectangle and the direction of the vehicle body. The dimensions are measured from the widest and the longest parts of the vehicle. The width of a motorcycle is defined as the width of its handlebar, as shown in Figure 5.6.

Kinematic characteristics
The data of basic kinematic parameters, such as speed, acceleration and deceleration of each vehicle at every time step, were also calculated and recorded into the database. The formulae are as follows:
( x n , t − x n , t −1 ) 2 + ( y n , t − y n , t −1 ) 2 ∆t

vn , t =

,
(5.6)

where vn, t is the speed of vehicle n at time step t and an,t is its acceleration (or deceleration) which is calculated with
an , t = vn, t − vn, t −1 . ∆t

(5.7)

5.4.2 Description of the database
By using the data extracting system, a database, with 42,711 observations containing information on the trajectories of 2,109 vehicles, including 477 motorcycles and 1,293 passenger cars, was built (Table 5.3). Each vehicle which appeared in the video footage was issued a serial number. The time series data of each vehicle were recorded, including its width and length, its video image and real-world coordinates, its steering and body directions, speeds, accelerations and decelerations. By using this database, all the
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observable data described in Section 5.1 could be generated. Table 5.3 reveals the numbers of the vehicles observed in the video footage. Motorcycle took up 22.6% of the flow in this link at the time data were surveyed. This figure is surprisingly high compared with figures from the DfT (2005a), in which motorcycles represent only around 1% of all traffic in Great Britain in 2003. This figure also means that this link provides a good environment for motorcycle behaviour studies.

Table 5.3 Numbers of vehicles surveyed
Vehicle type Motorcycle Passenger car Van Heavy vehicle Bicycle Total Frequency 477 1,293 71 47 221 2,109 Percent 22.6 61.3 3.4 2.2 10.5 100.0

5.4.3 Accuracy of the database
Although the data collection approach in this study provides highly detailed information about the traffic flow, accuracy of the data is still an issue of utmost concern. In Section 5.2.3 the accuracy of the data acquired by using the video recording method is discussed. The literature shows that the extent of accuracy is around 0.3 m to 1.3 m. Theoretically, when the error caused by manual operation is controlled properly, the margin of error ranges in the size of a pixel. Thus, the measure of the positions involves an uncertainty of double the pixel resolution because the value could be overestimated or underestimated. In this study, under ideal conditions, the measurements involve uncertainties of 0.06 m (longitudinal) by 0.02 m (lateral) on the near side and 0.55 m (longitudinal) by 0.05 m (lateral) on the far side (see Table 5.1). These values show that this approach has the potential to acquire extremely high accuracy data. However, in practice the data contained more errors because many factors had caused uncertainty in
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the data collection process. These factors are discussed as follows:

Error caused by manual operation
It was difficult to ensure that the trajectories of vehicles were all tracked by the pixel-level accuracy, especially when it was operated manually. The size of a pixel from the video image showing on the computer screen (hp-1702 LCD monitor) was originally around 0.33 mm. Even though it was enlarged by using the zoom-in function (see Section 5.3.3.4) of this data extraction system, the size was as small as around 0.49 mm/pixel. With this size, it still could not rule out the probability of manual errors during the data extraction process.

The systematic error due to the pixel resolution
The data collected from the nearside have higher pixel resolution. This means that the error of the data increases along with the longitudinal distance systematically. This might cause problems when using the data. This perspective problem can be solved if images from the bird’s-eye view are available. Another possible solution is to consider this error in the models which use this data set. Thus, an error term to represent this inaccuracy could be added to the models and the variance of this error term is linearly related to the longitudinal distance.

The systematic error caused by the view angle
There are errors caused by the view angles between the observer and the vehicles. The magnitude of this type of error depends on the sight angle and the height of the object observed. As shown in Figure 5.11, when extracting data from the video footage, the data for vehicles on the far side or with higher chassis would contain larger errors.

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Observing point

Possible error

Possible error

Possible error

Figure 5.11 The errors caused by perspective and sight angles

To reduce these errors, the camcorders should be located at as high a position as possible. However, such a position sometimes is unavailable. In this study, an alternative method was used to reduce this error: using the shadow of the object to recognise its position. During the data survey period, rays of the sun were nearly parallel to the bumpers of vehicles. The shadows of the vehicles offered more information for indicating the longitudinal location of the front bumpers of vehicles (see Figure 5.5). Therefore, the errors caused by perspective could be reduced. Despite this, it is important to be noted that the rays of the sun change angle with time and so does the relative position of a vehicle and its shadow. However, this factor can be omitted as the relative locations of vehicles and the kinematic parameters will not be influenced.

Errors from the occlusion in images
Besides the problems with sight angles, another critical issue is to recognise vehicles which are mutually overlapping in images. When the colours of the overlapping vehicles are similar, it was difficult to recognise their edges precisely. This would inevitably affect the accuracy of the data. A possible solution for this problem is to take the video from the bird’s-eye view. In this study, the extracting system provides a function to use the locations of motorcyclists’ heads to help the recognition. In addition, the shadows are used to recognise the occlusion in images.
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Errors from the estimation of the vehicle edges
It has been discussed in Section 5.4.1 that the vehicles were assumed to be rectangular in this study. Based on this assumption, Equation (5.5) was employed to estimate the directions of the vehicle bodies by which the edges of vehicles could be represented effortlessly. However, two factors could cause inaccuracy in this approach. The first one was the calculation of the vehicle direction could contain errors. This happened because Equation (5.5) was just a simplified formula which did not capture all the factors affecting the movements of the vehicle body. The other factor was the error arising from assuming that the edges of vehicles were rectangular. As shown in Figure 5.6, the rectangular area was always larger than the actual area a vehicle occupied. Nevertheless, given the computational time and resources of this study, this approach seemed to be the best solution to describe the edges of vehicles, albeit with some weaknesses.

Discussions
Considering the aforementioned errors, the accuracy of the data in this study is not as high as that shown in Table 5.1. It is also difficult to measure how these factors affected the accuracy of the data. However, it would be reasonable to state that this database has higher data accuracy on the near side and on the lateral direction in comparison with the data of other studies (with accuracy of around 0.3 m to 1.3 m, see Section 5.2.3). The reasons that this database has higher accuracy are: a) the pixel resolution of the original video images is higher, b) the data are extracted manually and c) the data extraction programme provides some customised functions to ensure the data quality. The aim of building this database is to calibrate the headway models and the path choice model developed in Chapter 4. However, the accuracy of the data on the far side might not be high enough for conducting some analyses. Therefore, when using the database, the difference of accuracy on the longitudinal distance should be taken into
96

consideration. It is worthwhile to discuss the effects of the shadows caused by the sun in video. From the experience of this study, it is found that taping the video footage in a sunny day will provide more clues to identify the trajectories of vehicles. Interestingly, the manual of the video processing software ViVatraffic (The ViVAtraffic-Team, 2007) makes a different suggestion. It suggests that the recordings should be done under a cloudy sky to avoid shadows. The reason is that when this software recognises vehicles automatically by comparing the actual image with its background image, the shadows will be interpreted as a part of a vehicle. This means that if there are fewer shadows, fewer misinterpretations will be caused. Therefore, when taping the video for trajectory extracting, the relationship between the daylight conditions and data extracting techniques should be taken into account.

5.5 Summary
This chapter presented the development of a highly detailed video-captured database containing information on the trajectories of 2,109 vehicles from a section of the Victoria Embankment in London. The video was recorded near a traffic signal, so the interactions between vehicles could be observed. A computer programme was developed to extract trajectories and sizes of the vehicles from the video images. The database built by this programme also included the types, widths and lengths of the vehicles. From this database, a wide range of relevant traffic parameters could be generated for further analyses and model calibrations.

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6 Model Calibration
The models proposed in Chapter 4 to describe the behaviour of motorcycles are calibrated here. Calibration is a process of adjusting and determining a set of parameters in a model by using observed data. Its purpose is to facilitate the accuracy of the model outputs. In this chapter, the calibration process is carried out based on the database of Chapter 5. The calibration results are detailed in the following sections.

6.1 The longitudinal headway model
The calibration results of the longitudinal headway model will be presented in this section. This section begins with a description of how the data set for this calibration was retrieved from the database. Section 6.1.2 examines the basic assumption of this model, i.e. a motorcycle would have a shorter headway when following the preceding vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge. The longitudinal headway distribution of motorcycles is also identified here. Section 6.1.3 provides further specifications and assumptions about the model based on the findings of the field data and the calibration method. The final section then presents the calibration results.

6.1.1 Data selection
In order to understand the longitudinal following relationship of motorcycles, a data set containing vehicle pairs in longitudinal following relationship was retrieved from the database. The preceding vehicle of each vehicle pair in this data set is a passenger car and the follower is a motorcycle. Its concept is illustrated in Figure 6.1.

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w/2 Difference in lateral position dw Lateral distance to the right edge w w/2

Longitudinal headway Regime of longitudinal following

Figure 6.1 The schematic diagram of the longitudinal following relationship

This data set contains the kinematic information of every vehicle pair, including the longitudinal headway, the difference in lateral position and the speeds of the vehicle pair. It was selected according to the following sequences: 1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle. 2) Search for the closest vehicle in front of the subject motorcycle and then define it as the leading vehicle. These two vehicles are defined as a vehicle pair. 3) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the leading vehicle is not a passenger car. 4) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the leading vehicle equals 0 km/hr. 5) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the subject vehicle is less than the speed of the leading vehicle. 6) Calculate the longitudinal headway and the lateral position difference between the vehicles in each pair. In this procedure, steps 1) and 2) are used to select the neighbour vehicle pairs which are in longitudinal following positions. Step 3) selects the vehicle pairs with a passenger car as the leading vehicle. Step 4) and step 5) are used to ensure that the vehicle pairs are in vehicle-following relationship. Finally, the longitudinal headways and the lateral position differences are calculated in step 6). The basic analyses of the information
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obtained from this procedure will be presented in the following subsection.

6.1.2 Properties of the longitudinal headway
In this subsection, the relative location of the vehicle pairs in longitudinal following relationship and their headway distribution are analysed. In addition, the influences of the flow density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle on the headways are investigated.

6.1.2.1 The relative locations of the vehicle pairs
The scatter plots of the longitudinal gaps against the lateral position differences are shown in Figure 6.2. In these plots, each point represents a following motorcycle. Its longitudinal gap to the preceding vehicle is showed on the horizontal axis and the lateral position difference within this vehicle pair is presented on the vertical axis. Hence, the relative locations of the vehicle pairs are displayed in a two-dimensional manner. More specifically, Figure 6.2a and Figure 6.2b illustrate the frequency of the observations per m2. In Figure 6.2c, Figure 6.2d and Figure 6.2e, the effects of the flow density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle on the relative positions of the vehicle pairs are shown respectively. The flow density here is defined as the ratio of the road space occupied by vehicles. From these plots, some points can be concluded: 1) The scattered pattern provides evidence for the unique behaviour characterised in Section 2.1.3.1, i.e. a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when following the preceding vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge. 2) This data set demonstrates that the flow density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle are related to the following distances (see Figure 6.2c, Figure 6.2d and Figure 6.2e). The vehicle pairs with smaller following distances are observed frequently under the conditions of high density flows, low
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speed differences and low leading speeds.

(m)

(a) The frequency of the relative positions

(c) The scatter plot by the flow density
(m)

(d) The scatter plot by the speed difference

0<Speed < 20 20 Speed<40 Speed 40(km/h)

(m)

(e) The scatter plot by the speed of the preceding vehicle

Figure 6.2 The scatter plots of the longitudinal following relationship

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6.1.2.2 The effects of the lateral position difference on the headway distribution
Through analysing the relative positions of the vehicle pairs, it is found that a motorcycle would like to maintain a shorter headway while following the preceding vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge. A plausible explanation to this observation is that by aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle, the following vehicle can easily swerve away to avoid a possible collision. Therefore, the relationship between the longitudinal headway and the lateral distance needed to avoid a collision, dw, is analysed. In this analysis, the data are categorised into two groups: swerving to the left and swerving to the right, divided by the central line of the preceding passenger car. Each group is divided further into two sub-group according to the lateral distance needed to swerve. The statistical properties and the histogram of the longitudinal headways in these sub-groups are estimated and plotted in Table 6.1 and Figure 6.3 respectively. The characteristics of the headway distributions are discussed below:

Table 6.1 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by lateral position difference
Lateral distance to avoid collision (m) To the right edge (a) 0 dw<0.5 (b) dw 0.5 To the left edge (c) 0 dw<0.5 (d) dw 0.5 Total N 375 136 239 426 209 217 801 Mean 15.56 15.19 15.78 17.57 18.42 16.76 16.63 SD 13.84 14.02 13.75 14.36 15.34 13.32 14.14 Median 11.31 10.31 11.99 13.42 13.90 12.84 12.50 Mode a 3.86 3.49 4.17 5.13 4.85 5.64 4.47
b b

K-S test c for lognormality 0.10 0.43 0.32 0.32 0.49 0.81 0.03
2

2.33 2.27 2.37 2.50 2.52 2.49 2.42

0.99 1.01 0.97 0.93 0.97 0.89 0.96

a. Mode is calculated by assuming the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e. Mode = e µ −σ b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways. c. Estimated by using the statistical software R (Venables et al., 2006).

.

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Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

(m)

(m)

(a) To the right edge (0 dw<0.5)

(b) To the right edge (dw 0.5)

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

(m)

(m)

(c) To the left edge (0 d <0.5)
w

(d) To the left edge (dw 0.5)

Figure 6.3 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways

1) The One-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (p-values in Table 6.1) shows that the longitudinal headway distributions of all the sub-groups follow the lognormal distribution. 2) When analysing the effects of the lateral positions on the headways, it is found that following distances in the right half area are significantly smaller than those in the left half area. Since these headways are lognormally distributed, this result is obtained by testing the equality of the means of the longitudinal headways’ logarithm, . The value of in the right half area, 2.33, is significantly different

from that in the left half area, 2.50 (t-test, p=0.012, two-tailed). 3) It is found that motorcyclists in different halves maintain different speed differences. In the right half, the average speed difference is 9.92 km/h, which is significantly different from that in the left half, 11.44 km/h (t-test, p=0.027,
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two-tailed). 4) The reasons for the differences mentioned in 2) and 3) might be linked to the geometric layout of the link surveyed. In the database, most of the longitudinal following motorcycles are observed in the second lane to the sidewalk. As the inner lane (the lane near the sidewalk) is the parking lane and sometimes it is empty, the motorcyclists in the left half of the second lane have more freedom to move to the inner lane and thus can maintain longer headways and higher speed differences to the preceding vehicles. On the other hand, the motorcyclists in the right half are constrained by the traffic, so their choices of headways and speeds are limited. Moreover, the motorcyclists who progress near the fast lane are comparatively more aggressive, so they are more likely to maintain shorter headways. 5) The values of the modes of the frequency distributions in Table 6.1 show a trend that the motorcycles followed closer when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicles. This finding is consistent with the assumption of the longitudinal headway model. 6) The above analyses confirm that motorcyclists behave differently as following in different areas behind the leading vehicles

6.1.2.3 The effects of the flow density, the speed difference and the leading speed
The data set is analysed further to understand how the flow density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle affect the following distances of motorcycles. The results are displayed in Table 6.2, Table 6.3 and Table 6.4. From these tables the following conclusions can be drawn: 1) The longitudinal headway distribution of motorcycles follows a lognormal distribution in most of the conditions except when the leading speed is slow (0
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km/hr < leading speed < 20 km/hr).

Table 6.2 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by flow density
Density 0 density<0.1 0.1 density<0.2 density 0.2 N 297 304 200 Mean 23.68 14.21 9.84 SD 16.41 11.09 9.32 Median Mode a 20.25 10.85 6.13 9.89 5.50 2.05
b b

K-S test c for lognormality 0.26 0.61 0.51

2.90 2.36 1.82

0.78 0.81 1.05

a. Mode is calculated by assuming that the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e. 2 Mode = e µ −σ . b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways respectively. c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Table 6.3 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by speed difference
Speed difference (km/h) 0 speed difference<10 10 speed difference<20 20 speed difference<30 speed difference 30
2

N 473 206 79 43

Mean 11.52 20.27 25.50 39.10

SD 10.83 12.39 15.97 15.67

Median Mode a 7.92 18.71 23.41 38.01 3.21 10.46 12.03 29.30

b

b

K-S test c for lognormality 0.64 0.15 0.25 0.70

2.05 2.81 3.02 3.58

0.94 0.68 0.73 0.45

a. Mode = e µ −σ . b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways. c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Table 6.4 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by leading speed
Leading speed (km/h) 0 leading speed<20 20 leading speed<40 leading speed 40
2

N 307 393 101

Mean 16.27 16.29 19.08

SD 13.98 14.23 14.15

Median 12.02 11.64 15.57

Mode 2.97 5.24 9.34

a

b

b

K-S test for lognormality 0.01 0.83 0.96

c

2.32 2.43 2.71

1.11 0.88 0.69

a. Mode = e µ −σ b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways. c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

2) The modes of the headway distributions show the pattern that a lower flow density, a higher speed difference or a higher speed of the preceding vehicle will reflect in a longer headway. In addition, the mean of the logarithm of longitudinal headways, , also shows this trend. 3) The standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways, , is not constant. In addition, it is generally negatively related to , with only a minor exception in Table 6.3.
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4) The above analyses imply that the specification of the longitudinal headway model should take flow density, the speed difference, the leading speed and the lateral position into consideration.

6.1.3 Specification of the longitudinal headway model
The main objective of this section is to calibrate the longitudinal headway model shown in Equation (4.12), which is refined as Equation (6.1) in Section 6.1.3.2. However, this model is difficult to calibrate due to both the complexity of the equation and the characteristics of the data. These issues are discussed below: 1) This model indicates that the minimum following distance is the lower bound of two formulations, Equations (4.4) and (4.11). This could lead to a discontinuity between these two formulations. 2) The dependent variable (i.e. the following distance) is not normally distributed (see Section 6.1.2.2). In addition, the conditional variances of the dependent variable are not constant (see Section 6.1.2.3). Therefore, the method used to calibrate this model should be able to handle non-normally distributed residuals and to deal with non-constant variances. 3) The knowledge of the parameters in this model is limited. Thus, statistical tools based on the assumption of normal distribution are inappropriate for calibrating this model. 4) The model is multi-dimensional because several parameters are involved. Therefore, several local optimal calibration results can be found. As a result, the boundaries of the parameters need to be defined carefully in order to obtain a decent result. 5) Two error terms are observed in the following behaviour of motorcycles, one accounting for random effects and the other accounting for the aggression of a
106

motorcyclist. Therefore, this model is an issue of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (Aigner et al., 1977; Meeusen and van den Broeck, 1977). This point will be elaborated later in Section 6.1.3.2. Based on the above analyses, some actions are taken to perform the model calibration. Firstly, a statistical tool capable of dealing with this calibration process is chosen. Secondly, some assumptions are made to clarify the reasonable range of the parameters. Finally, the model is revised further to facilitate the calibration process. The detailed account of these measures is elaborated in the following parts.

6.1.3.1 The calibration tool
As mentioned earlier, the minimum longitudinal following distance model is difficult to calibrate due to both the complexity of the equation and the characteristics of the data. To overcome these difficulties, WinBUGS (Spiegelhalter et al., 2003) is used to tackle the calibration process. WinBUGS is a part of the BUGS (Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling) project (The BUGS Project, 2004), featuring in a graphical user interface and on-line monitoring. It is a general-purpose software package that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (Metropolis et al., 1953) to conduct arbitrarily complex Bayesian analysis. It aims to make MCMC methods practical for applied research (Cowles, 2004). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a class of algorithms that draw a sequence of samples from probability distributions based on constructing a Markov chain.
In WinBUGS the Gibbs sampling algorithm (Geman and Geman, 1984) is used to

conduct the drawing. The sampling algorithm can determine the transition kernels for the Markov chain according to the current information and then generate samples from the probability distributions. After the sequence of samples comprises a Markov chain, i.e. this sequence of samples achieves convergence, its stationary distributions will
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approximate the desired probability distributions.

Some important applications of MCMC are based on its ability to numerically calculate multi-dimensional integrals of complicated probability distributions. One
example is its use on Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian analysis usually needs to integrate the

joint and marginal posterior distributions of the unknown parameters in the model. In view of this, MCMC methods are well-adapted to sample the posterior distribution of a Bayesian model. Another example is its application on stochastic frontier models (Osiewalski and Steel, 1998). The complexity of the stochastic frontier analysis makes heavy numerical integration inevitable (Lovell and Kumbhakar, 2003). However, research has demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is feasible for analysing stochastic frontier models (van den Broeck et al., 1994; Koop et al., 1994; Kim and Schmidt, 2000; Tsionas, 2002; Kumbhakar and Tsionas, 2005) and WinBUGS is a useful tool for this application (Griffin and Steel, 2005). Based on the analyses discussed above, WinBUGS is chosen as the tool for model calibration in this study because it is powerful and flexible in dealing with the parameters of which the probability distributions are not known explicitly.

6.1.3.2 Model specifications
The longitudinal headway model, Equation (4.12), has to be refined to facilitate the calibration work and to fit the data characteristics, as shown in Equation (6.1).
min ∆Dnt =min{ vntτ −
2 2 ~ dw 2d w dw 1 1~ vnt vn−1,t , ' ∆vnt (τ + nt ) + (b" − b )( nt ) 2 − b τ (τ + wnt ) }+ u nt, where + ~ w w " 2b v 2 v 2 v 2b

(6.1)

min ∆Dnt : the minimum longitudinal following of motorcycle n at time t,

vnt

: the vehicle n at time t,

vnt : the speed difference, vnt =vnt - vnt-1, vw

: the lateral speed of a motorcycle,
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w d nt : the lateral distance needed for motorcycle n at time t to avoid a collision,

~ b b"

: the speculative preceding deceleration, : the desired braking deceleration a following motorcycle, : the reaction time and

u' nt

: the safety margin. Equation (4.12) involves several unknown parameters, including the reaction time,

the deceleration of the vehicles and the lateral speed. Some of these parameters are highly correlated. For example, to stop safely, the delay of reaction time can be compensated by increasing the brake. The correlation among these parameters will affect the correctness of the calibration results, so some assumptions and clarification towards these parameters have to be made. In addition, in order to apply the Bayesian analysis to this model, each parameter needs to be assigned a prior probability distribution before the Gibbs sampling starts to generate data. In the Bayesian framework, a prior probability distribution, or simply called the prior, is the information about a model parameter before the data are collected. This information is described by clarifying the reasonable ranges of the parameter and putting a probability distribution on it. The refinement and specification of this model, the assumptions about the parameters and the assignments of the priors are discussed below.

Introduction of the safety margin
Practically, when motorcyclists are maintaining the following distance by the principle of collision avoidance, they should preserve an ultimate safety margin into which they are not willing to intrude before the motorcycle has stopped safely. Such a concept has also been adapted in Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981). The safety margin, u' , is introduced to the longitudinal headway model by nt
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assuming that motorcyclists will consider the safety margin when they are following longitudinally, as shown in Equation (6.1). u' is a non-negative random variable, which nt can be regarded as the inefficiency in a stochastic frontier model. In addition, this variable also represents the aggressive level of a motorcyclist. Its prior is assigned to follow the uniform distribution with limits of 0 to 10 m: u' ~uniform(0,10) nt

(6.2)

The braking decelerations of the following motorcycles
The braking decelerations under the conditions of swerving and non-swerving manoeuvres, i.e. b'n and bn in Equation (4.12), are assumed to be identical. Practically, when a motorcycle is not swerving, it can achieve a severer deceleration, compared to the situation that it is swerving. However, due to the correlation between the deceleration with swerving and the lateral speed, vw, it is difficult to calibrate both the lateral speed and the deceleration with swerving in a model simultaneously. Therefore, in order to estimate the lateral speed, the decelerations b'n and bn are assumed to be identical. Thus, these two parameters are both replaced by b"n, as shown in Equation (6.1). In addition, the desired braking deceleration of the following vehicle is a latent variable. It is difficult to specify this variable for every motorcyclist. Therefore, a stochastic variable b" is employed to replace b"n. The prior distribution of the deceleration of the following motorcycle is assigned to follow a truncated normal distribution. This is based on the observation from the field data. The acceleration and deceleration of motorcycles in this database exhibit an un-skewed and leptokurtic frequency distribution with a mean close to 0. In addition, the mechanical maximum braking capability of motorcycles is around -11 m/sec2 (Biokinetics and Associates Ltd, 2003). b"~ truncated_normal(0.40,1.512,-11,0)
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(6.3)

The speculative leading deceleration
In real traffic, the deceleration rate of the preceding vehicle bn-1 cannot be observed in advance. However, when a driver is following another vehicle, it is of great importance for him to speculate the deceleration of the preceding vehicle before deciding the ~ following distance. Therefore, a stochastic variable b is introduced to replace bn-1 to represent the speculative preceding deceleration. Similar to the decelerations of motorcycles, according to the field data the prior

~ distribution of the speculative leading deceleration b is assigned to follow a truncated
normal distribution restricted in the range between -10 m/sec2 (Ecker et al., 2001) and 0 m/sec2. The prior distribution for this parameter is set to be:

~ b ~ truncated_normal(0.09,0.942,-10,0)
The reaction time

(6.4)

The reaction time is set to be a constant, 0.75 sec. The reaction times of motorcyclists are highly related to their braking decelerations or lateral speeds. These parameters can substitute each other, so it is difficult to calibrate these parameters simultaneously in one model. After considering that the reaction time for motorists has been discussed in many studies (see Section 2.2), it is then safe to assume it as a constant value.

The headway distribution
Based on the findings in Section 6.1.2.2, the headway distribution of motorcycles is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution.
2 ∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt , σ nt )

(6.5)

where ∆Dnt is the longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle n at time t; µ nt and

σ nt are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of the following distances,
111

which are also known as the scale parameter and the shape parameter respectively. These two parameters will be elaborated later. The main purpose of identifying the headway distribution is to define the minimum
min following distance ∆Dnt . This variable is the dependent variable in Equation (6.1), but

it is also a latent variable which cannot be observed directly. Therefore, definition of
min ∆Dnt is clarified by using the characteristics of the headway distribution. This is

described in the subsection below.

The minimum following distance
min The minimum following distance ∆Dnt in Equation (6.1) is assumed to be the

mode of the longitudinal headway distribution.
min ∆Dnt =mode( ∆Dnt )

(6.6)

The reason for this assumption is that the data were acquired from the traffic flow in peak hours. In such an environment, most of the motorcycles would follow the leading vehicle by maintaining the minimum following distance. For a lognormal distribution, the mode, median and mean are e µ −σ , e µ and e µ +σ
min distance ∆Dnt can be formulated as:
2 2

/2

. Thus, the minimum following

min ∆Dnt = e µnt −σ nt .
2

(6.7)

The moderate following distance
The moderate following distance is introduced to present the following distances of
median the average motorcyclists. The moderate following distance, ∆Dnt , is assumed to be

the median, rather than the mean, of the longitudinal headway distribution:
median ∆Dnt = e µ nt

(6.8)

The reason for using median is that the headway of motorcycles follows a
112

lognormal distribution, so its frequency distribution is skewed. In a skewed distribution, the extreme values in the longer tail will result in the mean being far from the mode. This characteristic makes the mean an inappropriate measure of central tendency since it is not robust to outliers. Further, this issue becomes more critical when considering the fact that there is no interaction between a vehicle pair with a rather long following distance. Therefore, in order to reduce the impact of the outliers, the median is employed to represent the following distances of the overall observations.

The scale parameter
Given that the longitudinal following distance of motorcycles follows a lognormal distribution, the scale parameter is the mean of the logarithm of the following distances.

µ=
n t

ln(∆Dnt )
(6.9)

However, µ nt in Equation (6.5) is the marginal scale parameter under the distribution of motorcyclist n and time t. It is not suitable to be estimated by Equation (6.9). Instead, it can be estimated by using Equation (6.7) or Equation (6.8), which are reformulated below:
min 2 µ nt = ln( ∆Dnt ) + σ nt

(6.10)

median µ nt = ln( ∆Dnt )

(6.11)

The shape parameter
The shape parameter σ nt in Equation (6.5) is assumed to be linearly related to the leading speed. From the analyses earlier (Section 6.1.2.3), it is found that σ nt varies according to the leading speed or the flood density. The flood density is a macroscopic parameter which is related to the spatial distribution of vehicles. In a high density flow, the right tail of the headway distribution
113

will be compressed and thus the shape of the distribution is affected. The leading speed is a microscopic parameter which influences the vehicle-following relationship in a kinematic aspect. A short headway is commonly observed behind a slowly moving vehicle. Therefore, the leading speed will affect the minimum following distance and the shape of the headway distribution. Both the leading speed and the flow density are suitable for describing the shape parameter of the headway distribution. In fact, these two variables are highly correlated. Here the leading speed is selected because the use of flood density is computationally demanding for a microscopic model. In addition, the leading speed and σ nt present a linear relationship in Table 6.4. As a result, σ nt can be formulated as:

σ nt = α 0 + α1vn −1, t ,
(6.12)

where α 0 and α1 are the coefficients. In WinBUGS, α 0 and α1 are assigned to follow the uniform distribution. Reasonable finite ranges are given according to the values of σ nt and vn −1, t obtained from the field data.

α 0 ~uniform(0,20)

(6.13)

α1 ~uniform(-5,20)
The approach to the estimation of the braking decelerations

(6.14)

~ Due to the lateral speed vw is highly correlated to braking decelerations b" and b , ~ the value of b" and b are estimated without considering the swerving manoeuvre.
Under the non-swerving condition, motorcyclists will follow the preceding vehicle by the
median moderate following distances, ∆Dnt . Such a moderate following distance would

include a safety margin. Thus, the minimum following distance without swerving (Equation (4.4)) can be reformulated as:
114

∆D

median nt

2 2 vnt vn−1,t = vntτ − " + ~ + u nt , 2b 2b

(6.15)

median where ∆D unswerving is replaced by ∆Dnt . unt is introduced to represent the safety

margin, which is a non-negative random variable. Its prior is defined as: unt ~uniform(0,10)

(6.16)

By combining Equations (6.5), (6.11), (6.12) and (6.15), the braking decelerations

~ b" and b can be calibrated by the following formulation:
2 2 vnt vn−1,t ∆Dnt ~lognormal (ln(vntτ − " + ~ + u nt ), (α 0 + α1vn−1,t ) 2 ) 2b 2b

(6.17)

The lateral speed

~ The value of b" and b is estimated by considering both the swerving and
non-swerving manoeuvres. The equation for this estimation is the combination of Equations (6.1), (6.5), (6.10) and (6.12):
min 2 2 ∆Dnt ~lognormal (ln(∆Dnt ) + (α 0 + α1vn −1,t ) , (α 0 + α1vn −1,t ) )

(6.18)
min where ∆Dnt is formulated by Equation (6.1). The prior of vw is assigned to be:

vw ~uniform(0,10)

(6.19)

6.1.4 The calibration results
This section details the calibration results of Equations (6.17) and (6.18). First, the framework of the calibration using WinBUGS is presented. Secondly, the process of convergence assessments is described. Lastly, a detailed account about the calibration results is provided.

115

6.1.4.1 The framework of the calibration using WinBUGS
In this calibration process, the components of the longitudinal headway models, Equations (6.17) and (6.18) can be categorised into three groups: 1) The observed variables: The first group comprises the variables which are observable and available from the database, including the following distance

∆Dnt , the speeds vnt and vn−1,t , and lateral distance needed for avoiding a
w collision d nt .

2) The constant: The second group comprises unknown variables assigned to a deterministic value. The reaction time τ is the only variable in this group, the value of which is assumed to be 0.75 sec. 3) The unknown parameters: The third group consists of the parameters needed to

~ be calibrated, including α 0 , α1 , b" , b and vw. Three layers of Bayesian
analyses were conducted to calibrate these parameters. This will be discussed later in this subsection. This calibration involved two parts. According to the analyses in Section 6.1.2, when a motorcyclist is following in the right half area behind a passenger car, the following distance is significantly smaller than that in the left half. Therefore, data from both halves, 375 observations in the right half and 426 in the left, were used to calibrate the unknown parameters. Three MCMC chains were run with a burn-in of 5,000 iterations. Then, the MCMC models were examined to ensure having converged after 20,000 iterations. The process of the convergence assessment will be discussed later in Section 6.1.4.2. In each iteration of the MCMC simulation, three layers of Bayesian analyses were conducted. The whole process is shown in Figure 6.4, which is presented in the style of DoodleBUGS (Spiegelhalter, 2003), the graphical interface of WinBUGS.
116

Layer 1
0 1

D[i]

[i]

vn-1[i]

Layer 2 ui
b
' '

' [i]

D' [i]

~ b
b
' '

vn[i]

vn-1[i]

'[i]

~
b
' '

[i]

D' [i]

' '

vw

u i'

dw[i]

Layer 3

for i in 1: k : a constant : a stochastic or deterministic node : a logical relationship : a stochastic dependence : the repeated part

Figure 6.4 The calibration of the longitudinal headway model using WinBUGS

In Layer 1, the shape parameter of the headway distribution σ nt was estimated by using Equations (6.5) and (6.12). The value of α 0 and α1 were obtained here. Then, the draw of σ nt was retained to become the input data of the second and the third layers. In Layer 2, the values of the one-side random variable unt , the desired deceleration

~ b" and the speculative preceding deceleration b were calibrated by using Equation ~ (6.17). Again, the draws of b" and b in this iteration were kept for the calibration of the
lateral speed vw in the last layer.
' Finally, in the last layer, the values of the one-side random variable unt , the lateral

speed vw were calibrated by using Equation (6.18).
117

By this calibration process, the unknown parameters were estimated. In addition, some relevant variables such as the mean, the mode and the median of the headways were also calculated. The results are presented in later subsections.

6.1.4.2 The convergence assessment tools
Convergence means that the posterior distributions from the Gibbs Sampling have eventually reached stationary statuses so these posterior distributions approximate the desired probability distributions. In WinBUGS the convergence can be diagnosed by several tools based on running multiple chains in the MCMC simulation. In order to carry out the convergence diagnosis, three chains were simulated in each iteration. Then, four measures were employed to investigate the convergence of the model: 1) The trace plots (or history plots): The trace plot is a convergence diagnostic tool provided by WinBUGS. It presents the graphical summaries for the samples produced by the Gibbs sampler in each chain. It indicates convergence when the samples in each chain for every parameter look reasonable and all the chains of every parameter overlap one another. 2) The plots of the Gelman and Rubin (1992)’s convergence diagnostics: The modification of the Gelman-Rubin convergence statistic (Brooks and Gelman, 1998) is calculated and presented in this plot. It consists of three lines, one red, one green and one blue. Once convergence is achieved, the red line is close to 1 and the other two lines are stable. 3) The plots of autocorrelations: Autocorrelation means that the sequential draws of a parameter from the conditional distribution are correlated. When the level of autocorrelation is high for a parameter of interest, it is a sign of poor convergence. 4) The kernel density plots: The plot of the posterior distribution for every parameter will present a smooth curve when a model has converged.
118

6.1.4.3 The calibration results
The calibration results for each parameter are given in Table 6.5 and Table 6.6. First, the Markov chains are examined to ensure their convergences. Then, the values of the parameters are reported. The implications of these results are also discussed.

Convergence diagnostics
The convergence diagnostic tools show that this model is well-converged for both halves as: 1) The red lines in the Gelman and Rubin Plots are close to 1.0 and the other two lines are stable; 2) The plots of autocorrelation indicate that all parameters are mixing well with autocorrelation vanishing before 30 lags in each case; 3) The trace plots also show that the draws are well mixed because all the chains of every parameter overlap one another and 4) The kernel distribution curves look reasonable and smooth. These diagnostics indicate that the models approximate to convergence, i.e. these stationary distributions of the resulting Markov chains approximate the joint posterior distributions of interest.

Verification of the model calibration
The verification of the model calibration involves two stages. The first one is to examine the convergence of the MCMC simulation. This has been discussed above. The second stage is to examine the statistics of the headway distribution from the calibration results. In this stage the estimated values of the average scale parameter µ , the average shape parameter σ , the mode and the median of the headway distribution are employed to compare with their counterparts in Table 6.1 to Table 6.4. It is found that these statistics from the calibration results are rather reasonable.
119

Table 6.5 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (left half)
Node Mean

~ b

S.D. 0.69

Gelman-Rubin
bhat_ns chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

Autocorrelation
bhat_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0 b_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 0 lv chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 0 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 24800

Trace
bhat_ns chains 3:1

Kernel density
bhat_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

-4.70

24850

24900 iteration

24950

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

b" vw

-4.56

0.48

b_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

b_ns chains 3:1 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

b_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

2.62

1.11

lv chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

lv chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

lv chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

∆D min

5.19

0.52

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 0 20 lag 40

mini_s_bar chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

mode

6.98

0.32

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 0 20 lag 40

mode_s_bar chains 3:1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

median 14.49

0.58

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 0 20 lag 40

med_ns_bar chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

12.0

14.0

16.0

µ σ

2.51

0.04

mu_rho chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mu_rho chains 1:3 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 0 20 lag 40

mu_rho chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mu_rho chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

0.80

0.01

rhobar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

rhobar chains 1:3 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 0 20 lag 40

rhobar chains 3:1 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

rhobar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0

0.85

0.03

alpha0 chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

alpha0 chains 1:3 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 20 lag 40

alpha0 chains 3:1 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

alpha0 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

-0.01

0.00i

alpha1 chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

alpha1 chains 1:3 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 0 u_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0 u_s chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0 20 lag 40 20 lag 40 20 lag 40

alpha1 chains 3:1 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

alpha1 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01 3.46945E-18

unt

0.71

0.35

u_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

u_ns chains 3:1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

u_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

u

' nt

1.79

0.45

u_s chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

u_s chains 3:1 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

u_s chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

DIC
i

12,571

-

-

-

-

-

The actual value is 3.45×10-3.

120

Table 6.6 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (right half)
Node Mean

~ b

S.D. 0.53

Gelman-Rubin
bhat_ns chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

Autocorrelation
bhat_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0 b_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 0 lv chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 0 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 24800

Trace
bhat_ns chains 3:1

Kernel density
bhat_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

-3.82

24850

24900 iteration

24950

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

b" vw

-4.32

0.54

b_ns chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

b_ns chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

b_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

2.70

1.34

lv chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

lv chains 3:1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

lv chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

∆D min

4.59

0.60

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 0 20 lag 40

mini_s_bar chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2.0

4.0

6.0

mode

5.46

0.36

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 0 20 lag 40

mode_s_bar chains 3:1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

median 12.51

0.61

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 0 20 lag 40

med_ns_bar chains 3:1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

10.0

12.0

14.0

µ σ

2.33

0.04

mu_rho chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

mu_rho chains 1:3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 0 20 lag 40

mu_rho chains 3:1 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

mu_rho chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2.0

2.2

2.4

0.85

0.02

rhobar chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

rhobar chains 1:3 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0 20 lag 40

rhobar chains 3:1 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

rhobar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0

0.84

0.03

alpha0 chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

alpha0 chains 1:3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0 20 lag 40

alpha0 chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

alpha0 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.00i

0.00ii

alpha1 chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

alpha1 chains 1:3 0.02 0.01 0.0 -0.01 -0.02 0 u_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 u_s chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0 20 lag 40 20 lag 40 20 lag 40

alpha1 chains 3:1 100.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

alpha1 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-0.02

0.0

0.02

unt

0.63

0.32

u_ns chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

u_ns chains 3:1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

u_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

u 'nt
DIC
i ii

0.87

0.39

u_s chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

u_s chains 3:1 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0 24800 24850 24900 iteration 24950

u_s chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

10,732

-

-

-

-

-

The actual value is 1.84×10-3. The actual value is 4.40×10-3.

121

The lateral speeds
The estimated lateral speed was 2.62 m/sec for swerving to the left and 2.70 m/sec for swerving to the right. These speeds are just slightly larger than the average maximum gait speed of male pedestrians (2.53 m/sec), measured by Bohannon (1997). These numbers show that motorcyclists were expecting a gentle swerving manoeuvre. However, this gentle swerving manoeuvre can notably decrease the following distances, from around 13 m (the median of the headway distribution) to around 6 m (the mode of the headway distribution). Thus, this can explain the small modal scores presented Table 6.1 to Table 6.4 and also give reasons why motorcyclists were observed following the preceding vehicles by extremely short headways.

The desired decelerations and the speculative preceding decelerations
When motorcycles are following by a modest distance, i.e. at the median of the headway distribution, the average braking decelerations that motorcyclists would like to undertake were -4.56 m/sec2 for the left half and -4.32 m/sec2 for the right. As to the speculative preceding decelerations, the motorcyclists from the left half would expect the preceding vehicles to brake by the deceleration rate of -4.70 m/sec2 and for the motorcyclists from the right half, the value was -3.82 m/sec2. These deceleration rates are fairly gentle, compared to the results of Ecker et al. (2001) and Vavryn and Winkelbauer (2004). These two studies found that common motorcyclists were capable of applying brakes by up to around -6 to -7 m/sec2. However, from another viewpoint, a deceleration rate of around -3.9 to -4.6 m/sec2 is severer than 97% of the braking decelerations observed in the database. Therefore, it can be concluded that the motorcyclists observed were ready to undertake a fairly severe braking deceleration in their daily experience. However, the deceleration rates in this study were still mild compared to their maximum braking abilities, which have been found in other studies.
122

The difference between following in the right-hand area and the left-hand area behind the preceding vehicle also reflected on the braking decelerations. Since the following distances in the left-hand area were comparatively longer, the average deceleration difference (subtract the speculative preceding deceleration from the desired deceleration) was milder (0.14 m/sec2 for left-hand area versus -0.50 m/sec2 for right-hand area). This results show that the motorcyclists in the right half were more alert.

The minimum following distances
Given the deceleration rates and lateral speed discussed above, the average minimum following distance was 5.19 m for the left half and 4.59 m for the right half. These numbers were the limits calculated from the physical rules, without considering
' psychological issues. If the safety margin u nt was taken into account, the minimum

following distance should be longer, ranging between ∆D min and the mode of the headway distribution. For the left half, it was between 5.19 m and 6.98 m; for the right half, it was between 4.59 m and 5.46 m.

The difference between following in the left half and following in the right half
The difference between following in the right-hand area and the left-hand area behind the preceding vehicle is reflected in many aspects, including the braking deceleration, the lateral speed, the safety margin, the following distances and the shape of the headway distribution. It has been found and analysed in Section 6.1.2 that the following distances in the left-hand area were comparatively longer. This is consistent with the outcome of the parameters such as the mode, the median, the minimum following distance and the safety margin. As the characteristics of headway reflected on the kinematic interactions between vehicles, the values of deceleration difference (subtract the speculative preceding deceleration from the desired deceleration) and lateral speeds show that the motorcyclists
123

in the right half were less risk averse. In addition, the shape parameter of the headway distribution shows that the shape of the distribution hardly changed with the speed of the leading vehicle (or the flow density) in the left half, but it did in the right half.

6.2 The oblique & lateral headway model
This section focuses on the calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model. As discussed in Section 4.2.2, the lateral headway is a special case of the oblique headway. Therefore, the oblique headway is employed to calibrate this model. This section begins with a description of how the data set for this calibration was retrieved from the database. Basic analyses of the data set are then presented in Section 6.2.2. Based on these analyses, Section 6.2.3 provides further specifications and assumptions about the model. Finally, the parameters in the model are calibrated. The results are described in the final part.

6.2.1 Data selection
The oblique following behaviour is a critical movement of motorcycles to be examined. To understand this behaviour, a data set consisting of the information of every vehicle pair in an oblique following relationship was obtained from the database. The information in this data set includes the oblique gap, the following angle, the speed difference and the leading speed. The data set for this analysis is selected from the following sequence: 1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle. 2) Search for the closest vehicle at the oblique front of the subject motorcycle and define it as the leading vehicle. These two vehicles are defined as a vehicle pair. 3) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the subject vehicle is less than the speed of the leading vehicle. 4) Filter out the vehicle pairs where the subject vehicle is progressing in the inner
124

lane (the nearest lane to the sidewalk). 5) Calculate the variables needed for the oblique & lateral headway model, such as following distance, the speed difference and the following angle. Steps 1) and 2) are used to select the neighbour vehicle pairs which are in oblique relative positions. Step 3) is used to ensure that the pairs are in the vehicle-following or overtaking relationship. Step 4) is used to rule out the vehicle pairs without interactions near the inner lane. In the survey site, the inner lane is used for on-street parking. Passenger cars seem to use the inner lane less frequently whereas motorcycles use it more frequently when there is available road space. As a result, the motorcycles progressing in this lane usually have weak lateral or oblique interactions with other vehicles because they can keep a certain lateral clearance easily. Under this circumstance, step 4) is used to exclude these situations. Finally, by step 5), a data set for model calibration can finally be obtained. In addition, it is worthwhile to point out that the oblique following distance is defined as the closest corners between two vehicles in oblique following relationship, as shown in Figure 4.4.

6.2.2 Properties of the oblique headway
The oblique & lateral headway model assumes that the following distance is a function of the following angle. Hence the relationship between the following angle and the following distance is investigated. Also, the oblique (or lateral) headway distribution of motorcycles is identified. Table 6.7 shows the statistical properties of the oblique headways, categorised by the following angles. Their histograms of frequency distributions are illustrated in Figure 6.5. Several important characteristics are discussed below:
125

Table 6.7 The statistical properties of the oblique headways
Lateral distance to avoid collision (m) Following at rear right (a) 0 < θ ≤ 30 (b) 30 < θ ≤ 60 (c) 60 < θ < 90 Following at rear left (d) − 30 ≤ θ < 0 (e) − 60 ≤ θ < −30 (f) − 90 < θ < −60 N Mean SD Median Mode a
b b

K-S test c for lognormality 0.49 0.36 0.68 0.10 0.15 0.22

459 137 85 467 151 68

9.47 3.58 2.40 8.77 2.94 2.15

8.15 2.13 1.35 8.50 1.34 0.92

7.11 3.18 2.14 5.79 2.85 2.23

3.42 1.81 1.37 3.18 1.89 1.48

1.92 1.07 0.70 1.83 0.95 0.65

0.83 0.69 0.62 0.82 0.56 0.51

a. Mode is calculated by assuming the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e. 2 Mode = e µ −σ . b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of oblique headways. c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

(m)

(m)

(m)

(a) At the rear right ( 0 < θ ≤ 30 )

(b) At the rear right ( 30 < θ ≤ 60 ) (c) At the rear right ( 60 < < 90 )

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

(m)

(m)

(m)

(d) At the rear left (- 30 ≤ θ < 0 )

(e) At the rear left (- 60 ≤ θ <- 30 )

(f) At the rear left (- 90 < <- 60 )

Figure 6.5 The frequency distributions of the oblique headways

1) The oblique headway distributions of all the sub-groups follow the

lognormal distribution. This finding is based on the one-sample Kolmogorov
-Smirnov test (p-values in Table 6.7). 2) Table 6.7 shows a pattern that the following distances become smaller as the
126

following angles get wider.
3) There is no significant difference in the following distance between

following at the rear left and at the rear right. The t-test is employed to test
the logarithm of the following gaps. The results show that following distances in groups (a), (b) and (c) of in Table 6.7 are not significantly different from groups (d), (e) and (f) (two-tailed t-test, 0.084, 0.112 and 0.588) respectively.

6.2.3 Specification of the oblique & lateral headway model
The main objective of this section is to calibrate the oblique & lateral headway model, Equations (4.17) and (4.18). The calibration of this model experiences similar difficulties that the calibration of the longitudinal headway model has encountered. Therefore, the technique of Bayesian analysis is introduced to this calibration process. The detailed specifications of the model are described in this subsection.

The oblique & lateral headway distribution
It is assumed that the oblique (or lateral) headway follows the lognormal distribution. This assumption is based on the findings in Section 6.2.2. Therefore,
oblique oblique oblique ∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt ,σ nt ), 2

(6.20)
oblique oblique where ∆Dnt is the oblique following distance of a motorcycle n at time t; µ nt and oblique σ nt are the scale parameter and the shape parameter of the lognormal distribution

respectively.

The scale parameter
oblique The scale parameter µ nt is linked to the oblique headway model by assuming

the minimum oblique following distance is the mode of the oblique headway distribution. The reason for this assumption is similar to that of the longitudinal headway model, i.e.
127

most of the motorcycles would follow the leading vehicle by maintaining the minimum following distance in peak hours of the congested urban networks.
oblique ∆Dnt ,min = e µnt
oblique oblique −σ nt 2

(6.21)
2

oblique oblique oblique µ nt = ln(∆Dnt ,min ) + σ nt ,

(6.22)

oblique where ∆Dnt ,min is the minimum oblique following distance, which can be described

by using Equation (4.17) or Equation (4.18):
oblique min min min min min ∆Dnt ,min = (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) 2 cos 2 θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) 2 sin 2 θ nt

(6.23)
oblique ∆Dnt ,min =

min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt

(6.24)

where α long 0 , α long1 , α long 2 , α lat 0 and α lat1 are the coefficients. In WinBUGS, these coefficients are assigned to follow the uniform distribution. In addition, reasonable finite ranges are given.

α long 0 ~ uniform (-1,10)
(6.25)

α long1 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.26)

α long 2 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.27)

α lat 0 ~ uniform (0,10) α lat1 ~ uniform (0,10)
The shape parameter
oblique Three alternative assumption have been made to the shape parameter σ nt :

(6.28)

(6.29)

oblique is a function of the following angle θ based on the formula of the 1) σ nt

128

ellipse.
2 oblique σ nt = ( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1 )2 cos 2 θ nt + β lat sin 2 θ nt .

(6.30)
oblique 2) σ nt is a function of θ based on the formula of the hypotenuse in a right

triangle.
oblique σ nt =

( β long 0 + β long1vn−1 ) × β lat ( β long 0 + β long1vn−1 ) sin θ + β lat cos θ

.
(6.31)

oblique 3) σ nt is linearly related to θ and vn −1 (Equation (6.32)). oblique σ nt = β 0 + β1vn−1 + β 2θ nt

(6.32)

In these equations,

long0

,

long1

,

lat

,

0

,

1

and

2

are the coefficients. In Equations

(6.30) and (6.31), the semimajor axis of the ellipse (see Figure 4.3a) and the longer leg of the right triangle (see Figure 4.3b) are assumed to be a function of the leading speed. The main reason for this assumption is that the leading speed can reflect the flow density, which affects the headway distribution significantly. This point has been discussed earlier when specifying the shape parameter for the longitudinal headway model in Section 6.1.3.2. The leading vehicle speed is used in these equations. In WinBUGS, the coefficients are assigned to follow the uniform distribution. In
oblique addition, reasonable finite ranges are given according to the values of σ nt obtained

from the field data.

β long 0 ~ uniform (-1,10)
(6.33)

β long1 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.34)

β lat ~ uniform (0,10) β 0 ~ uniform (0,10)
129

(6.35)

(6.36)

β1 ~ uniform (0,10) β 2 ~ uniform (0,10)
The models to calibrate

(6.37)

(6.38)

Through the above discussion, the oblique & lateral headway model is developed into three forms. These are summarised below: 1) The elliptic model: the elliptic model is given by Equations (6.20), (6.22), (6.23) and (6.30) and is repeated below:
oblique oblique oblique ∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt ,σ nt ), oblique oblique oblique µ nt = ln(∆Dnt ,min ) + σ nt ,
oblique min min min min min ∆Dnt ,min = (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) 2 cos 2 θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) 2 sin 2 θ nt

2

2

2 oblique σ nt = ( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1, t ) 2 cos 2 θ nt + β lat sin 2 θ nt

(6.39)

2) The triangular model: the triangular model is given by Equations (6.20), (6.22), (6.24) and (6.31) and is repeated below:
oblique oblique oblique ∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt ,σ nt ), oblique oblique oblique µ nt = ln(∆Dnt ,min ) + σ nt ,
oblique ∆Dnt ,min =

2

2

min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt

,

oblique σ nt =

( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1, t ) × β lat ( β long 0 + β long1vn −1, t ) sin θ nt + β lat sin θ nt
(6.40)

3) The triangular model with linear shape parameter: this model is given by Equations (6.20), (6.22), (6.24) and (6.32) and is repeated below:

130

oblique oblique oblique ∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt ,σ nt ), oblique oblique oblique µ nt = ln(∆Dnt ,min ) + σ nt ,
oblique ∆Dnt ,min =

2

2

min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) min min min min min (α long 0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn−1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt

,

oblique σ nt = β 0 + β1vn −1,t + β 2θ nt

(6.41)

Their calibration results are presented in the following subsection.

6.2.4 The calibration results
The calibration of the three models (Equations (6.39), (6.40) and (6.41)) was undertaken using WinBUGS. The calibration results are presented in this subsection.

6.2.4.1 The framework of the calibration using WinBUGS
oblique In this calibration process, the oblique following distance ∆Dnt , the speed

difference ∆vnt , the preceding speed vn−1,t and the following angle θ nt are observable and available from the database. The parameters needed to be calibrated are the coefficients α long 0 , α long1 , α long 2 , α lat 0 , α lat1 , β long 0 , β long1 , β lat , β 0 , β1 and β 2 . The details of the calibration process are presented in this subsection. The observations with motorcycles following at the rear right of the leading vehicles were chosen for this calibration. The reasons for this choice were: 1) Since it was found that there was no significant difference between following at the rear left and the rear right (Section 6.2.2), it is not necessary to calibrate both of them. 2) Motorcyclists riding near the inner lane were found to have weaker lateral and oblique interactions. Three MCMC chains were run with a burn-in of 5,000 iterations. Then, the model was examined to ensure convergence after 20,000 iterations. The whole process is shown
131

in Figure 6.6 using DoodleBUGS.

long0

Doblique[i]
long0

long1

oblique

[i]

oblique

[i]

long1

long2

lat lat0

lat1

vn-1[i]

v[i]

[i]

: a constant : a stochastic or deterministic node : a logical relationship : a stochastic dependence : the repeated part

Figure 6.6 The calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model using WinBUGS

6.2.4.2 The calibration results
The calibration results are listed in Table 6.8, Table 6.9 and Table 6.10. First, the Markov chains are examined to ensure that convergence has occurred. Then, the values of the parameters are reported. Finally, the implications of these results are also discussed.

Convergence diagnostics
The convergence diagnostic plots indicate that all the three models approximate to convergence. This is concluded by using the techniques for analysing the convergence of the model described in Section 6.1.4.2. The convergence of these models means that the stationary distributions of the resulting Markov chains also approximate the joint
132

posterior distributions of interest.

Table 6.8 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the elliptic model
Node Mean
long0

S.D. 0.26

Gelman-Rubin
a chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

Autocorrelation
a chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0 b chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 c chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0 d chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 f chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0 o chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0 p chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.0 0 q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 24800

Trace
a chains 3:1

Kernel density
a chains 1:3 sample: 60000 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

0.28

24850

24900 iteration

24950

-1.0

0.0

1.0

long1

0.18

0.03

b chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

b chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

long2

0.42

0.03

c chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

c chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

lat0

0.97

0.16

d chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

d chains 3:1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

lat1

0.04

0.03

f chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

f chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-0.1

0.0

0.1

long0

0.65

0.04

o chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

o chains 3:1 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

long1

0.02

0.01

p chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

p chains 3:1 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.02

0.04

lat

0.52

0.04

q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

q chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

DIC

3,623

-

-

-

-

-

133

Table 6.9 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular model
Node Mean
long0

S.D. 0.50

Gelman-Rubin
a chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

Autocorrelation
a chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0 b chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 c chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 d chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0 f chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.0 0 o chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0 p chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.0 0 q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 24800

Trace
a chains 3:1

Kernel density
a chains 1:3 sample: 60000 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0

-0.73

24850

24900 iteration

24950

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

long1

0.43

0.07

b chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

b chains 3:1 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

long2

1.57

0.19

c chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

c chains 3:1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

lat0

1.17

0.11

d chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

d chains 3:1 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.5

0.75

1.0

1.25

1.5

lat1

0.09

0.02

f chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

f chains 3:1 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.05

0.1

0.15

long0

0.58

0.04

o chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

o chains 3:1 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

long1

0.02

0.01

p chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

p chains 3:1 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.02

0.04

lat

0.89

0.07

q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

q chains 3:1 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

DIC

3,479

-

-

-

-

-

134

Table 6.10 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular model with linear shape parameter
Node Mean
long0

S.D. 0.50

Gelman-Rubin
a chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

Autocorrelation
a chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0 b chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 c chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0 d chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1.5 1.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 0 f chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0.0 0 o chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0 p chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.0 0 q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 24800 20 lag 40 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 24800

Trace
a chains 3:1

Kernel density
a chains 1:3 sample: 60000 1.0 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.0

-1.02

24850

24900 iteration

24950

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

long1

0.51

0.07

b chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

b chains 3:1 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

long2

1.70

0.20

c chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

c chains 3:1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

lat0

1.03

0.11

d chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

d chains 3:1 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.5

0.75

1.0

1.25

1.5

lat1

0.10

0.02

f chains 1:3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

f chains 3:1 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0

0.50

0.04

o chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

o chains 3:1 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1

0.02

0.00i

p chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

p chains 3:1

p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

50.0 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03

2

0.02

0.04

q chains 1:3 1.0 0.5 0.0 5001 10000 15000 iteration 20000

q chains 3:1 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 24850 24900 iteration 24950

q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

DIC
i

3,447

-

-

-

-

-

The actual value is 3.90×10-3.

Verification of the calibration results
The verification of the model calibration involves three stages. The first one is to examine the convergence of the MCMC simulation. This has been discussed in the previous part. The second stage is to examine the statistics of the estimated parameters of the oblique headway distribution. Table 6.11 lists the observed and estimated scale parameters and shape parameters. Table 6.12 lists the deviations of the estimations. Generally the estimated numbers look reasonable. However, among these models, it shows a pattern that the elliptic model performs better in the ranges of 0 < θ ≤ 30 and
60 < θ < 90

whereas the triangular models have less deviations in the range of
135

30 < θ ≤ 60 .

Table 6.11 Comparisons between the estimated and the observed statistics of the oblique following behaviour
Model

0 < θ ≤ 30

Observation (rear right) Observation (rear left) Estimation (elliptic) Estimation (triangular) Estimation (triangular with linear σ ) Observation (rear right) Observation (rear left) Estimation (elliptic) Estimation (triangular) Estimation (triangular with linear σ ) Observation (rear right) Observation (rear left) Estimation (elliptic) Estimation (triangular) Estimation (triangular with linear σ )

1.92 1.83 1.93 2.05 2.01 1.07 0.95 1.41 0.97 1.02 0.70 0.65 0.76 0.89 0.75

0.83 0.82 0.78 0.65 0.62 0.69 0.56 0.66 0.55 0.62 0.62 0.51 0.55 0.67 0.62

30 < θ ≤ 60

60 < θ < 90

Table 6.12 Errors of the estimation results
Model

0 < θ ≤ 30

Elliptic model Triangular model Triangular model with linear σ

2.95% 9.36% 7.10% 40.01% -3.68% 1.70% 12.13% 31.31% 10.28%

-5.45% -21.21% -24.84% 6.14% -11.55% -0.30% -3.70% 17.32% 8.56%

30 < θ ≤ 60

Elliptic model Triangular model Triangular model with linear σ

60 < θ < 90

Elliptic model Triangular model Triangular model with linear σ

In the final stage, the marginal distributions of these models are calculated and visualised to examine the parameters estimated. These plots are shown in Figure 6.7. The probability density distribution of the elliptic model are shown in Figure 6.7a and Figure 6.7b, of the triangular model are shown in Figure 6.7c and Figure 6.7d and of the triangular model with linear shape parameter are shown in Figure 6.7e and Figure 6.7f.

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(m)

(m)

(a) The frequency of the relative positions
(m)

(b) The contour of the frequency

(m)

(c) The frequency of the relative positions
(m)

(d) The contour of the frequency

(m)

(e) The frequency of the relative positions

(f) The contour of the frequency

Figure 6.7 The contours of the marginal distribution of the oblique & lateral headway model

From these plots, it is found that the elliptic model and the triangular model show unreasonable pattern of the probability density distribution although the modes of them present the expected locus. However, the triangular model with linear shape parameter
137

shows ideal marginal distribution. The reason for the unstable distribution pattern of the former two models could be that the mode of a lognormal distribution is affected by both the scale and shape parameters. The shape parameter described by the polar coordinate system will cause rapid change to the tail of the distribution curve when the angle is close to 90°.

6.2.4.3 Model comparison
The model comparison function of the WinBUGS indicates that the triangular model with linear shape parameter fit the data better. The model comparison is based on the Deviance Information Criterion, DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002). DIC is an index developed for model comparison in the Bayesian analysis approach. A lower DIC represents a better model. The model with the higher DIC can be ruled out confidently when the difference is more than 10 (The BUGS Project, 2006). In this case, the DIC value of the specification of the elliptic model is 3,623, of the triangular model is 3,479 and of the triangular model with linear shape parameter is 3,447. This result is consistent with the analysis of the marginal distribution of the models (see Figure 6.7). When comparing the deviations of the estimation results (Table 6.12), it can be found that the elliptic model performs better in the ranges of 0 < θ ≤ 30 and

60 < θ < 90 whereas the right triangular model has less deviation in the range of 30 < θ ≤ 60 . This implies that a curve which is flatter than the elliptic curve could be

more appropriate. Finally, according to the comparison of the DIC values, the patterns of the probability density distributions and the errors of the estimation results, the triangular model with linear shape parameter is selected to represent the oblique following behaviour of motorcycles in this study.

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6.3 The path choice model
This section presents the calibration of the path choice model. In Chapter 4, the path choice model has been developed in order to describe how a motorcyclist makes the decision on making lateral movements, as shown in Equation (4.21). The path choice behaviour is proposed to be depicted by a multinomial logit model. Here the original model is re-listed as Equation (6.42) to facilitate the description of the calibration process.
Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1 1

speedl + speedc+ speedr+

2 2 2

forceFl +

3 3 3

sizel + sizec

4

distl +

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

forceFc + forceFr +

+

1

sizer +

4

distr +

5

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(6.42)

This section begins with the specifications and assumptions about the multinomial logit model according to the characteristics of the field data. Based on the specifications, a data set for the model estimation can be generated. Section 6.3.2 describes the calibration method and tool. Section 6.3.3 describes the model refinements and the estimation results.

6.3.1 Data selection and the data set
In order to calibrate the path choice model, a data set was selected from the database. The behaviour of the motorcyclists in the database was analysed so the variables involved in Equation (6.42) could be retrieved. The details of how the data set was generated are described below. 1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle. 2) Search for the closest vehicle in front of the subject motorcycle and define it as the leading vehicle. 3) Filter out the motorcycles with no leading vehicle. 4) Filter out the motorcycles that the leading vehicle is not a four wheeled vehicle.
139

5) Calculate the variables involved in Equation (6.42). The path choice model aims at describing how a motorcyclist reacts to the constraint of the preceding vehicle. Steps 1), 2) and 3) control the selection of vehicle pairs which are in longitudinal following relationship. In addition, a motorcycle is unlikely to be constrained by a preceding motorcycle due to the narrow and non-lane-based natures of motorcycles, so the condition of a motorcycle following another motorcycle is excluded in step 4). Finally, a data set of 1,441 observations was built. Then the variables involved in the path choice model were calculated. The generation and calculation of these variables will be discussed further in the following parts.

6.3.1.1 The choice set
The path choice model in Section 4.3 assumes that there are three alternatives in the choice set: shifting leftwards, staying straight and shifting rightwards. In order to calibrate this model, the choices of the motorcyclists should be recognised from trajectory data. However, the intentions of motorcycles cannot be interpreted merely by observing their trajectories. For example, the trajectory of a motorcycle does not follow a perfect line. When it is moving straight ahead, it also exhibits some lateral oscillations. These oscillations will affect the interpretation of their intentions. Hence, in order to overcome the ‘white noise’ and have a systematic interpretation of the trajectory data, some rules for translating the motorcycle trajectories into their choices set were proposed. 1) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+1 is larger than 0.5 m, this motorcycle is then defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or rightwards) at time t. 2) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+2 is larger than 0.7 m and it maintains the same course during this period, this
140

motorcycle is then defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or rightwards) at time
t and time t+1.

3) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+3 is larger than 0.9 m and it maintains the same course during this period, this motorcycle is, thus, defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or rightwards) at time
t, time t+1 and t+2.

4) If the motorcycle maintains the same course during the period time t to t+3 and it has been defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or shifting rightwards) at both time t and time t+2, accordingly, it is defined as having the same choice at time
t+1.

5) If the motorcycle has changed its preceding vehicle between time t and t+1, and the interaction (defined by interacting force, see Section 6.3.1.2) with the new preceding vehicle becomes weaker, this motorcycle is, accordingly, defined as choosing a lateral movement at time t. 6) Any situations which are not included in the rules above are defined as keeping straight. 7) If the preceding vehicle and the object (a vehicle or the kerb) beside it are stationary, and the gap between them is smaller than 0.7 m, the choice through this path is then defined as unavailable. Here 0.7 m is roughly the width of a motorcycle. Finally, the 1,441 observations in this data set can be discretised into three categories according to the lateral moving condition. The sample frequencies of this model are shown in the Table 6.13. It is found that motorcyclists observed in the survey site were more likely to choose shifting leftwards than shifting rightwards. This finding is consistent with the analyses in Section 6.1.2.2 and Section 6.2.1. Motorcyclists near the inner lane had longer following
141

distances, higher speed differences and less lateral interaction because the inner lane had more empty space. Thus, motorcyclists were more likely to shift leftwards when choosing their paths.

Table 6.13 The sample frequencies of the alternatives
Shifting leftwards Keeping straight Shifting rightwards Total Observations 331 983 127 1,441 % 23.0 68.2 8.8 100.0

6.3.1.2 The interacting force
The interacting force is an index for describing the interaction between two vehicles. It is assumed that the interaction between two vehicles can be quantified by their kinematic characteristics such as gap, speed difference, relative position, etc. Based on this assumption, the interacting force can be represented by the headway models developed earlier. Equations (6.5) and (6.20) are adopted to determine this quantity. The interaction force is then defined as the survival function (reliability function) of the lognormal distribution, i.e.
2 forcelongitudinal = 1 − Flognormal (∆Dnt ; µ nt , σ nt )

(6.43)

in a longitudinal following relationship and
oblique oblique oblique forceoblique = 1 − Flognormal (∆Dntθ ; µ ntθ , σ ntθ ) 2

(6.44)

in an oblique following relationship. In these two equations, forcelongitudinal and

forceoblique are the longitudinal and oblique interacting forces. Flognormal is the cumulative
distribution function of the lognormal distribution. The range of the interacting force is between 0 and 1. It reflects the marginal
142

headway distribution of a following pair of vehicles (see Figure 6.7 for the example of oblique following). For instance, when a motorcycle is following by maintaining a distance of an interacting force of 0.8, it means that 80% of other motorcyclists will maintain longer headways than this distance, given the same kinematic conditions. In this calibration, the variable forceFc, the interaction with the vehicle ahead, is calculated by using Equation (6.43); the variables forceFl, forceFr, forceRl and forceRr, the interaction with the vehicle at oblique or lateral positions, is calculated by using Equation (6.44).

6.3.1.3 Other explanatory variables
In addition to the interacting force, other explanatory variables of the path choice model are described here.

The speeds in front and at the oblique front
The speeds of the preceding vehicle and the nearest ‘objects’ beside the preceding vehicle are calculated for the variable speed in this calibration. The term ‘object’ refers to the vehicle or kerb at each side of the preceding vehicle. If the object is the kerb, its speed is then assumed to be equal to the speed of the preceding vehicle.

The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position
The variable dist is the lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position. There are two paths for overtaking the preceding vehicle: from the left and from the right, as shown in Figure 4.6. This variable refers to the lateral distance to the closer path.

The lateral clearance beside the preceding vehicle
The variable clear is the gap between the preceding vehicle and the object (a vehicle or the kerb) beside it (at left or at right), as shown in Figure 4.6. If the lateral clearance is larger than 2.7 m, then its value is fixed to be 2.7 m. This is based on the assumption that
143

the motorcyclist will not feel the utility difference of the width of a path when it is larger than a certain level. The value 2.7 m is calculated from the width of the motorcycle, 0.7 m, added by double safety lateral gap, 1 m for each side. The value 1 m is roughly the mode of the lateral headway distribution for the overtaking model, the value of α lat 0 in Table 6.8.

The size of vehicles
The size of a vehicle is calculated by the area it occupies, the length multiplying the width of the object, as shown in Figure 5.6.

Last movement
The variable last is a dummy variable, referring to the last movement of the motorcycle. The value of this variable is defined as 1 if a lateral movement has been made at the last time step, 0 otherwise.

6.3.2 The calibration tool
The path choice model was estimated using Biogeme (Bierlaire, 2003). Biogeme (BIerlaire’s Optimization package for GEV Models Estimation) is an open source package for the maximum likelihood estimation of utility models. It is chosen for calibrating the path choice model due to the following reasons: 1) It is distributed free of charge. 2) It is a powerful tool capable of estimating discrete choice models including Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) models and binary probit models. 3) Biogeme is comparatively flexible because of it is an open source package. Users can expand the programme if they need extra functions. 4) It has complete technical documentation (Bierlaire, 2005) and a good user support system (http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/biogeme/).
144

6.3.3 The calibration results
The calibration results and the model refinement will be presented here. In Section 6.3.3.1, the estimation results of the path choice model are presented. However, some of these results do not in agreement with the prior expectation for the model. Thus, some refinements to the original model are made and will be shown in Section 6.3.3.2.

6.3.3.1 The estimation results of the original model
The specification of the path choice model developed in Section 4.3 is summarised in Table 6.14. The estimation results of this model are listed in Table 6.15.

Table 6.14 The multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour
l r 1 2 3

Shifting leftwards

1

0

Speed of the vehicle at the left of the preceding vehicle (m/sec) Speed of the preceding vehicle (m/sec) Speed of the vehicle at the right of the preceding vehicle (m/sec)
4 5

The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the left of the preceding vehicle The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the preceding vehicle The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the right of the preceding vehicle
6

Size of the vehicle at the left of the preceding vehicle (m2) Size of the preceding vehicle (m2) Size of the vehicle at the right of the preceding vehicle (m2)
7

Keeping straight Shifting rightwards

0

0

0

1

Shifting leftwards

The lateral distance for evading the constraint of the preceding vehicle from the left (m) 0 The lateral distance for evading the constraint of the preceding vehicle from the right (m)

The lateral clearance between preceding vehicle and its left object (m) 0 The lateral clearance between preceding vehicle and its right object (m)

The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the rear left or left 0 The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the rear right or right

1 if lateral movement to left is made at the last time step, 0 otherwise 0 1 if lateral movement to right is made at the last time step, 0 otherwise

Keeping straight Shifting rightwards

In Table 6.15, most of the coefficients estimated show the expected sign except
2

2.

represents how the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front affects the path choice

behaviour. When the interacting force from a path is larger, the following motorcyclist will try to evade it and the probability of choosing this path would be smaller. Hence, the
145

sign of

2

is expected to be negative. However, the estimation results show the value of

this coefficient is 0.24, which is not in agreement with the prior expectation. In addition to the problem above, the t-test results of
2, 3,

and

4

show that these three coefficients do

not differ from 0 at the significance level of 0.05. The critical value for this two-sided test is ±1.96. Based on the analyses above, some refinements are made to this model. This will be described in the following parts.

Table 6.15 Estimation results for the path choice model
Coefficient
l r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Variable name
Shifting leftwards constant Shifting rightwards constant Speed (m) Interacting force ahead or at the oblique front Vehicle size (m2) Lateral distance to move (m) Lateral clearance of the preceding vehicle (m) Interacting force aside or at oblique behind The choice of the last time step

Coefficient estimate
-2.02 -2.65 0.10 0.24 i -0.01 -0.04 0.39 -0.50 3.25

Asymptotic standard error
0.25 0.23 0.01 0.18 0.01 0.09 0.10 0.18 0.15

t statistic
-8.22 -11.49 7.13 1.32 ii -1.22 ii -0.41 ii 3.88 -2.74 21.35

Summary statistics Number of estimated parameters: Number of observations: Null log-likelihood L(0): Final log-likelihood L( ): Likelihood ratio test -2[L(0)-L( )]: 2 : Adjusted 2:
i ii

9 1441 -1524.78 -819.337 1410.88 0.462652 0.456749

is expected to be negative sign. fails to pass the t test at significance level of 0.05, two-tailed.

6.3.3.2 Model refinements
In the original model proposed in Equation (6.42), the coefficient
2

shows an

unexpected sign and does not significantly differ from 0. The variable corresponding with it is the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front. Therefore, some assumptions about this variable are revised. These specifications are described below. Their estimation results are listed in Table 6.16.
146

The interacting force ahead or at the oblique front
Three alternative specifications for the interacting force, forceF, are proposed. Their descriptions and equations are listed below: 1) Only the interacting forces at the front left and the front right are assumed to affect the decision-making of a motorcyclist (Equation (6.45)). 2) Only the interacting force ahead is assumed to affect the path choice behaviour (Equation (6.46)). 3) None of the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front affects the path choice behaviour (Equation (6.47)).
Vl Vc Vr Vl Vc Vr Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1 1

speedl + speedc speedr+ speedl speedc + speedr speedl speedc speedr
2

2

forceFl + +

3 3 3

sizel + sizec

4

distl +

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

+

1

forceFr + +
2

sizer + sizel + sizec sizer + sizel + sizec sizer +

4

distr + distl +

5

clearr + clearl +

6

forceRr + forceRl +

7

lastr lastl

(6.45)

= = =

l

+

1 1

3 3

4

5

6

7

forceFc + +

r

+

1

3

4

distr + distl +

5

clearr + clearl +

6

forceRr + forceRl +

7

lastr lastl

(6.46)

= = =

l

+

1 1

+ + +

3 3 3

4

5

6

7

r

+

1

4

distr +

5

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(6.47)

The estimation results of the above three equations are shown in Table 6.16. The value of
2

shows unexpected sign and does not differ from 0 in Equation (6.45). In

Equation (6.46), it shows the expected sign but still does not differ from 0. This means that the variable forceFc does not affect the choice behaviour. When this variable is ruled out from the model (Equation (6.47)), the
2

value does not drop significantly. Therefore,

Equation (6.47) seems to be a better specification for the path choice behaviour.

147

Table 6.16 Estimation results for the refinements of the path choice model
Equation (6.42) (6.45) (6.46) (6.47) (6.48) (6.49) (6.50) (6.51) Equation (6.42) (6.45) (6.46) (6.47) (6.48) (6.49) (6.50) (6.51)
l r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ' 1

-2.02 -2.28 -1.99 -1.93 -2.18 -2.46 -2.53 -2.93

-2.65 -2.92 -2.64 -2.57 -2.77 -3.16 -3.23 -3.66

0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.14

0.24 ab -0.01 a 0.59 -0.26 b a

-0.04 a -0.02 a -0.06 -0.06 -0.03 -0.07 a a a a

0.39 0.42 0.37 0.37 0.45 0.40 0.41 0.42

-0.50 -0.46 -0.50 -0.51 -0.47 -0.48 -0.50 -0.46

3.25 3.25 3.23 3.24 3.27 3.26 3.27 3.27
2

0.05

-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06

a a a ab

Parameters Observations
9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 1441 1441 1441 1441 1441 1441 1441 1441

L(0)
-1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78 -1524.78

L( )
-819.34 -816.95 -819.73 -820.21 -819.54 -812.67 -813.00 -807.45

-2[L(0)-L( )]
1410.88 1415.66 1410.10 1409.14 1410.47 1424.22 1423.57 1434.67

Adj0.4567 0.4583 0.4565 0.4568 0.4573 0.4618 0.4622 0.4652

2

0.4627 0.4642 0.4624 0.4621 0.4625 0.4670 0.4668 0.4705

a fails to pass the t test at the significance level of 0.05, two-tailed. b shows the unexpected sign.

From the outcomes, it seems that the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front is not of most concern to the motorcyclists when they are determining the moving courses. The results imply that: 1) The motorcyclists could be able to observe the traffic condition ahead in advance and then make lateral movements before having interacted with the vehicles ahead or at the oblique front. 2) The motorcyclists could still make lateral movements even if they have been involved in the congested traffic and have strongly interacted with the vehicles ahead or at the oblique front. 3) Other factors such as the widths of the lateral clearances are likely to be more important than the interacting forces ahead or at the oblique front. Based on this specification, some further revisions of the model specifications are made. These refinements will be presented later in this section.
148

The vehicle size
According to the analysis earlier, the estimation results of Equation (6.42) show that the coefficient of the vehicle size,
3,

fails to pass to t-test. Therefore, similar to the

revising procedure done to Equations (6.45) to (6.47), manipulation to the variable of the vehicle size is made. The equations of these revisions are shown as Equations (6.48) and (6.49). The former assumes that only the vehicles at the oblique front affect the path choice behaviour of a motorcyclist, whereas the latter assumes that only the vehicle ahead affects that of a motorcyclist.
Vl Vc Vr Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1 1

speedl speedc speedr speedl speedc speedr

+

3

sizel +

4

distl +

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

+

1

+

3

sizer + +

4

distr + distl +

5

clearr + clearl +

6

forceRr + forceRl +

7

lastr lastl

(6.48)

= = =

l

+

1 1

4

5

6

7

+

3

sizec +
4

r

+

1

distr +

5

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(6.49)

The estimation results of these two equations are also shown in Table 6.16. The value of However,
3 3

in Equation (6.48) shows unexpected sign and does not differ from 0. in Equation (6.49) shows reasonable result. This indicates that the size of the

vehicle ahead does affect the path choice behaviour of a motorcyclist, but the sizes of the vehicles at the oblique front are not the main concern of the motorcyclist. The results imply that: 1) A large preceding vehicle will obstruct the angle of view of the following motorcyclist. It also brings higher psychological pressure to the following vehicles. In addition, heavy vehicles tend to have slower speed. Thus, a motorcyclist will avoid following behind a large vehicle. 2) When making a lateral moving, motorcyclists worry more about the widths of the paths rather than the vehicles which form the virtual lanes, so the sizes of the
149

vehicles at the oblique front are not the main concern of the motorcyclist.

The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position
The estimation results of Equation (6.42) show that the coefficient of the lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position,
4,

also fails to pass to t-test. Therefore, this

variable is excluded from this model. The equation of this revision is shown as Equation (6.50).
Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1 1

speedl speedc speedr +
3

+ sizec +

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

+

1

5

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(6.50)

The estimation results of the above equation are also listed in Table 6.16. The comparison of the
2

values between Equations (6.49) and (6.50) shows that it does not

drop significantly (from 0.4670 to 0.4668) after the variable has been ruled out from the model. This means the difference between the current lateral positions is not the main concern of a motorcyclist for choosing his lateral moving direction. In fact, the maximum difference of the lateral distances between to the left path and to the right path is only around 1.7 m, which is the width of the preceding vehicle. Thus, it is not surprising that the value of
4

is not significantly different from 0.

The generic attribute
In Equation (6.50), the variable speed is the only generic attribute shared among all the three alternatives. Therefore, a test is conducted to examine this generic attribute. The alternative specific model is proposed as Equation (6.51). Its estimation results are also listed in Table 6.16.
Vl Vc Vr = = =
r l

+

1

speedl
' 1

+ speedc +
3

5

clearl +

6

forceRl +

7

lastl

sizec + 150
5

+

1

speedr

clearr +

6

forceRr +

7

lastr

(6.51)

The null hypothesis is that there is no significant difference between Equations (6.50) and (6.51). The likelihood ratio test statistic (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985b) for this test is
-2 [L( G) - L(
AS)]

(6.52)

where G and AS are the generic (Equation (6.44)) and the alternative specific (Equation (6.45)) models, respectively. It is chi-square distributed with the number of degrees of freedom equal to (KAS-KG), where Kn is the number of parameters in model n. In this case, the generic model is Equation (6.50) whereas the alternative specific model is Equation (6.51). The value of the test statistic with 1 degree of freedom is 11.1. By this value, the null hypothesis is rejected at the significance level of 0.05, as the value of χ12,0.05 is 3.84. (KAS-KG)= 8 – 7 = 1
-2 [L( G) - L(
AS)]

(6.53) (6.54)

= - 2 ( - 813.00 + 807.45 ) = 11.1
2

In addition, the comparison of the shows that the latter has a higher better fit to the data.
2

values between Equations (6.50) and (6.51)

. This means that Equation (6.51) comparatively has a

Summary of the model refinement and model calibration
After the refinement process, Equation (6.51) is employed to represent the path choice behaviour of motorcyclists. The detailed specifications and estimation results are show in Equation (6.55), Table 6.17 and Table 6.18.
Vl = -2.93 + 0.14 speedl Vc = Vr = -3.66 + 0.14 speedr 0.05 speedc – 0.06 sizec + 0.42 clearr – 0.46 forceRr + 3.27 lastr (6.55) + 0.42 clearl – 0.46 forceRl + 3.27 lastl

151

Table 6.17 Refined multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour
l r

Shifting leftwards Keeping straight Shifting rightwards

1

0

Speed of the vehicle at the left of the preceding vehicle (m/sec)

1

' 1

2

0 Speed of the preceding vehicle (m/sec)

0 Size of the preceding vehicle (m2) 0

0

0 Speed of the vehicle at the right of the preceding vehicle (m/sec)
5

0

1

0

Shifting leftwards Keeping straight Shifting rightwards

The lateral clearance between preceding vehicle and its left object (m) 0 The lateral clearance between preceding vehicle and its right object (m)

The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the rear left or left 0 The interacting force between the subject motorcycle and the vehicle at the rear right or right

6

1 if lateral movement to left is made at the last time step, 0 otherwise 0 1 if lateral movement to right is made at the last time step, 0 otherwise

7

Table 6.18 Estimation results for the refined path choice model
Coefficient
l r 1 ' 1

Variable name
Shifting leftwards constant Shifting rightwards constant Speed of the vehicles at the oblique front (m) Speed of the vehicle ahead (m) Vehicle size (m2) Lateral clearance of the preceding vehicle (m) Interacting force aside or at oblique behind The choice of the last time step

Coefficient estimate
-2.93 -3.66 0.14 0.05 -0.06 0.42 -0.46 3.27

Asymptotic standard error
0.28 0.29 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.18 0.15

t statistic
-10.53 -12.65 6.85 2.56 -4.14 4.38 -2.58 21.42

3 5 6 7

Summary statistics Number of estimated parameters: Number of observations: Null log-likelihood L(0): Final log-likelihood L( ): Likelihood ratio test -2[L(0)-L( )]: 2 : Adjusted 2: 8 1441 -1524.78 -807.445 1434.67 0.470451 0.465204

6.4 Discussion
During the process of model development and calibration, several unsuccessful attempts have been made. These attempts are reviewed here. In addition, the advantage of the database developed in Chapter 5, which is flexible and powerful to support the model
152

revision and calibration process, is also discussed.

6.4.1 Tackling the systematic error of the data
In Section 5.4.3, the systematic error of the data caused by pixel resolution was discussed. This type of error increased along with longitudinal distance. It was suggested that this error could be controlled by adding an error term to the model which
' min describes these data. Therefore, unt in Equation (6.17) and unt in ∆Dnt of Equation

(6.18) were specified to describe this error by assuming that the variances of them were
' linearly related to the longitudinal distance of the survey area. Hence, unt and unt could

be formulated as:
2 unt ~ normal ( µ safety _ margin ,σ pixel _ resolution )

(6.56)

σ pixel _ resolution = α pixel _ resolution _ 0 + α pixel _ resolution _ 1 xreal
(6.57)
' ' 2 unt ~ normal ( µ safety _ margin , σ ' _ resolution ) pixel

(6.58)
' σ ' _ resolution = α ' _ resolution _ 0 + α pixel _ resolution _ 1 xreal pixel pixel

(6.59)
' In these equations, µ safety _ margin , µ safety _ margin , α pixel _ resolution _ 0 , α pixel _ resolution _1 ,

α ' _ resolution _ 0 and α ' _ resolution _ 1 were the parameters to be calibrated. xreal was the pixel pixel
longitudinal distance in coordinate of the survey site. When applying these adjustments to the calibration process, however, the MCMC simulation did not achieve convergence, i.e. the models did not fit the data well after making these adjustments. This result implied that the variance of the error did not increase along with the longitudinal distance strictly. Also, the systematic error caused by the pixel resolution did not dominate the magnitude of the error term.
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6.4.2 Comparisons between the assumptions of non-lane-based movements and dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles
There are three alternative assumptions on which the development of the models for motorcycle behaviour can rest: lane-based movements, non-lane-based movements and dynamic virtual lane-based movements. 1) Lane-based movements: It has been discussed in Chapter 3 that the conventional vehicle-following and lane-changing models were developed to describe the lane-based traffic. Chapter 3 has also concluded that these lane-based models are not suitable to be applied to motorcycles. 2) Non-lane-based movements: The way that the motorcyclist dodges the possible collisions is similar to the behaviour of a person in a pedestrian flow. The simulation of pedestrian behaviour usually uses single equation based on non-lane based assumption (Helbing et al., 2001; Antonini et al., 2006). Therefore, this study has tried to model the behaviour of motorcycles by assuming that the movements of motorcycles are non-lane-based, but it turned out that this assumption did not work well on mixed traffic modelling and simulation. 3) Dynamic virtual lane based: The models developed in this study assume that motorcycles travel according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in surroundings. The differences between the models based on non-lane-based and the dynamic virtual lane-based assumptions are reviewed below. Through the comparisons, the reasons that the former assumption is not suitable for describing the motorcycle behaviour are discussed.

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Data selection rules
The data set which is generated based on the non-lane-based assumption could be biased. For example, as shown in Figure 6.8, given that vehicle A is the subject motorcycle. When selecting the closest vehicle for calibrating the minimum following distance, vehicle B will be chosen under the non-lane-based condition. By such a selecting rule, the vehicles aside or at the oblique front will have higher probability to be selected as the closest vehicle because the lateral safety distance is far smaller than the longitudinal safety distance in a traffic flow. Therefore, the selected following distances at the longitudinal direction are extremely small. This is even significant when comparing the longitudinal headway distributions between passenger cars and motorcycles. This is a critical problem because the vehicle-following relationship is the most important property in road traffic modelling. This bias in describing the longitudinal headway cannot be ignored.

Oblique following

Overtaking

Longitudinal following

A
Oblique following Overtaking

Figure 6.8 The minimum following distance under the non-lane based assumption

Instead, when the dynamic virtual lane-based assumption is adopted, vehicle D is the closest vehicle for longitudinal following and vehicle B is the one for oblique following. It seems that these following relationships in different regimes should be counted into consideration separately. Therefore, the dynamic lane-based assumption is more realistic and sensible for describing the motorcycle behaviour.
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Model specifications: single regime vs. multi-regimes
This study assumes that the behaviour of motorcycles is dynamic lane-based and, accordingly, categorises the behaviour of motorcycles into three groups under this assumption, as shown in Figure 2.4. The behaviour patterns of motorcycles in different regimes are described by different models. In addition to the models presented in Chapter 4, another model for describing the motorcycle behaviour has been developed under the non-lane-based assumption. This model attempted to describe all regimes in a single model. In this model, it was assumed that the following distance was the function of the following angles differences , the speed

v, the lateral distance needed to move d w , the reaction time , the

~ speculative leading deceleration b and the lateral speed vw. The formulation of the model was (Lee et al., 2006):
∆D
min nt

~ w w ∆vnt (v wτ + d nt ) − 0.5b τ (v wτ + 2d nt ) = ~ v w cos θ nt + (∆vnt − b τ ) sin θ nt
(6.60)

w d nt

Figure 6.9 The conceptual illustration of Equation (6.60)

It was found that a single equation based on non-lane based assumption is not suitable for modelling motorcycles. The reasons are: 1) Data for calibration: This point has been described in the previous part. The vehicle at the oblique or lateral direction is more likely to be selected as an adjacent vehicle than the vehicle at the longitudinal direction. 2) Moving direction: Although motorcycles have more freedom of lateral
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movements, they still travel by following the direction of the lanes. 3) Speed and size difference: A mixed traffic flow is heterogeneous in speeds and sizes but homogeneous in directions. A slow moving vehicle or a large vehicle can block its following vehicle easily. Being obstructed by a leading vehicle or not, motorcycle will exhibit total different behaviour patterns. The above analyses show that the non-lane-based assumption is unsuitable for describing the behaviour of motorcycles. Thus, the models presented in this study are developed based on the assumption that motorcycles travel following the dynamic virtual lanes formed by the vehicles in surroundings.

6.4.3 Comparison between the conventional Stochastic Frontier Analysis and the approach proposed in this section
In Section 6.1.3, a technique similar to the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) was presented to calibrate the longitudinal headway model. The longitudinal headway of a motorcycle was assumed to be lognormally distributed and it was affected simultaneously by a non-negative error term which represented the inefficiency of the motorcyclist. In addition, this study has attempted to employ the conventional stochastic frontier modelling to calibrate the longitudinal headway model, but did not obtain satisfactory results. The comparison between these two approaches is discussed.

The Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model
The typical form of a Stochastic Frontier Analysis model has two error terms, as shown in Equation (6.61). vi is a random error, usually characterised by a normal distribution (Equation (6.62)). ui is a non-negative variable which is assumed to account for technical inefficiency in production. Sometimes ui is an unknown probability distribution or is specified as a truncated normal distribution (Equation (6.63)).
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Yi = xi β + ui + vi vi ~normal (0, σ v2 ) ui ~truncated_normal (0, σ u2 )

(6.61)

(6.62)

(6.63)

When using WinBUGS to calibrate Equation (6.61), the normality of vi is utilised (Griffin and Steel, 2005). Thus, Equation (6.64) can be formulated by combining Equations (6.61) and (6.62).

Yi ~ normal ( xi β + ui , σ v2 )

(6.64)

Link the approach proposed in this section to the SFA model
In this section, a SFA-like approach is proposed to calibrate the longitudinal headway model. This SFA-like approach assumes that Yi is lognormally distributed and the central tendency of the distribution is represented by the mode.

Yi ~ lognormal ( µ ,σ v2 ) mode = xi + ui
In a lognormal distribution, the mode can be expressed as:

(6.65) (6.66)

mode = e µ −σ

2

(6.67)

By combining Equations (6.65), (6.66) and (6.67), the SFA-like model can be derived.

Yi ~ lognormal (ln( xi β + ui ) + σ v2 , σ v2 )

(6.68)

Model comparison between the SFA and the SFA-like models
To apply the SFA model (Equation (6.64)) to the calibration of the longitudinal headway model, Yi is replaced by ∆Dnt to represent the observed headway, xi is
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min replaced by the ∆Dnt of Equation (6.1) to represent the minimum following distance

and ui represents the safety margin, shown in Equation (6.69). Two specifications are applied to the prior of ui, shown in Equation (6.70) and Equation (6.71).
2 min ∆Dnt ~normal( ∆Dnt + ui , σ v )

(6.69) (6.70)

ui ~ uniform (au, bu)
2 ui ~ lognormal ( µu , σ u )

(6.71)

Equation (6.69) is calibrated by using the data set under the condition that motorcycles follows in the right half. The results are shown in Table 6.19.

Table 6.19 Comparison of the calibration results between the conventional stochastic frontier analysis and the approach used in this study
Approachi SFA- using Equations (6.69) & (6.70) SFA- using Equations (6.69) & (6.71) The SFA-like approach
i ii

DIC 2,870 2,869 2,677

b" -3.52 -3.53 -4.32

~ b

vw 0.06ii 0.07ii 2.70

∆D min

-3.33 -3.31 -3.82

15.57 15.69 4.59

Use the data of following in the right half The posterior density distribution curve are not smooth

The results show that the SFA-like approach proposed in this study fits the data set better than does the conventional SFA approach. The reasons are explained below: 1) The DIC values indicate that the SFA-like approach fits the data better. In Section 6.2.4.3, the use of DIC has been introduced. In this case, the differences are around 200. This means the SFA-like model is the better model to describe the field data. 2) The conventional SFA setup produces some unreasonable results. The values obtained from the conventional SFA models are not consistent with properties of the database. For example, the average minimum following distance ∆D min observed from the field data is around 5 m. However, the value calibrated is
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around 15.5 m, which is around the value of the average speed. In addition, the posterior densities of the lateral speed vw from the conventional SFA models do not present smooth curves. According to the principles of diagnosing convergence (see Section 6.1.4.2), this is a sign of not convergent. All this implies that the specification of the conventional SFA models cannot describe the swerving manoeuvres of motorcycles. 3) No evidence supports that vi is normally distributed. The arbitrary assumption of the normality of vi (Equation (6.62)) could be the reason that the conventional SFA models cannot describe the headway properly. The assumption made to the distribution type of vi is the most important prior assignment in the calibration process (Equation (6.69)). This affects the calibration results significantly. However, according to the basic analysis of the headway distribution in Section 6.1.2, no evidence can support this assumption. Therefore, the assumption that vi is normally distributed could be improper.

6.4.4 The advantage of the data collection method
Through the calibration processes, the database developed in Chapter 5 has demonstrated that it was capable of providing sufficient information for modelling the motorcycle behaviour. It has been concluded from the literature review in Section 3.2 that the availability of the data set was a crucial issue for modelling the motorcycle behaviour by a microscopic approach. The database developed in Chapter 5 has contained and recorded all the details of the traffic trajectories from the survey area. Traffic parameters from all aspects could be generated from the database easily to support the calibration processes. For example, the calibration of the path choice model required some particular information such as the lateral moving distance of a motorcycle in the third second earlier
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(see Section 6.3.1.1). This database could generate these data without difficulties. In addition, once the proposed model required to be revised dramatically (See 6.4.2 for example), no supplementary data collection had to be arranged. Above all, through a data selection approach, the data set could be generated from this database objectively and thoroughly. This ensured that the data set would not be affected by the subject judgement of researchers during the data collection and selection process. In summary, the data collection method employed in Chapter 5 was proven to be able to support the motorcycle movement study and to provide a wide variety of information objectively and flexibly.

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7 The Agent-Based Traffic Simulator
This chapter aims at describing the development of a simulator characterised by agent-based modelling. The mathematical models developed in the previous chapters are applied to this simulator, which targets on simulating the mixed traffic flow consisting of motorcycles and other types of vehicles. The outline of this chapter is as follows: The first section introduces the concept of agent-based modelling and its benefits to a traffic simulation system. The second section describes the specification of the agent-based traffic simulator developed in this study. The third section presents the verification of this simulator and the final section offers three applications of this simulator.

7.1 Agent-based modelling
The concept of agent-based modelling was the natural extension of artificial intelligence, which developed in the late 1950s (O' Sullivan and Haklay, 2000), but it did not develop rapidly until the beginning of the 1990s (Müller, 1996). From then on, agent-based modelling has become more and more important for analysing and understanding complex phenomena (O' Sullivan and Haklay, 2000). Also, this technique is powerful in terms of investigating the spatially distributed systems of heterogeneous autonomous actors (Epstein, 1999). Here the relationship between agent-based modelling and traffic simulation will be elaborated.

7.1.1 The agent and agent-based modelling
Agents
The term ‘agent’ is a concept without rigid definition. There is a lack of agreement over what is an agent (Franklin and Graesser, 1997) and what actually constitutes an
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agent (d' Inverno and Luck, 2001). In this study, this term is defined by summarising the definitions given by Wooldridge and Jennings (1995), Franklin and Graesser (1997) and Epstein (1999): an agent is an autonomous software entity which is situated within (or acts as a component of) an artificial environment, being able to sense and interact to its neighbour agents and local environments, over time, to achieve its own goal and so as to effect what it senses in the future. According to the above definition, the term ‘agent’ here refers to a type of the artificial life agent (Langton, 1989) and the computational agent (Franklin and Graesser, 1997). Some characteristics of agents can be yielded: 1) Autonomy: agents have internal states (attributes, memory, data, etc.) and are able to act and make decision without the instructions from central control. 2) Goal-oriented: agents act to meet their design objectives. 3) Interaction: agents act and interact according to the given interaction rules. They are capable of interacting and communicating with other agents and perceiving and responding to the changes of their environments. 4) Explicit environment: the environment is the space and time context in which the agents and events are situated. The environment changes dynamically over time and could consist of different types of agents. 5) Temporal continuity: agents react in a timely fashion to the changes in the environment. Their actions in the current time step would affect what they sense later. 6) Local information and interactions: agents have bounded information and bounded computing power. They act based on local information; they interact with neighbours in the environment.

Agent-based modelling
Agent-based modelling, or multi-agent based modelling, is a microscopic computer
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simulation technique focusing on simulating the actions and interactions of a cluster of computational agents. By doing so, the macroscopic phenomena or some emergent phenomena can be represented by the simulation system. This is a powerful tool for providing the researchers an insight into a complex system from a bottom-up view, i.e. to investigate a complex phenomenon by modelling the simple interactions of its components. Taking the artificial life agent for example, in an artificial life simulation system, a virtual man-made landscape is built and some artificial lives are settled. The components which interact to each other in this system are called agents. By assigning these agents attributes similar to their counterparts in the real world, this technique is able to represent the characteristics of a natural living system. Agent-based modelling is a powerful tool for analysing spatially distributed systems and for empirical research (Epstein, 1999). This technique has several advantages, for example, its visual representation medium, its ability to describe non-linear models, being powerful in empirical research, and being able to alter the parameters of the model and repeatedly test the sensitivity of theories. In addition, it enables researchers to observe how the individual behaviour generates the macroscopic regularities. As reported in many articles, agent-based modelling has been used in a wide range of domains (O' Sullivan and Haklay, 2000), from the flocking behaviour of animals (Reynolds, 1987; Dussutour et al., 2004) and human movement patterns (Helbing et al., 2000) to economic and sociological scopes.

7.1.2 Agent-based modelling and traffic simulation
Traffic is a complex phenomenon
Traffic is viewed as a complex system (Nagel and Rasmussen, 1994) which is high-dimensional and non-linear in nature. It is suitable for being investigated by using
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the agent-based modelling technique because traffic phenomena emerge from the interactions of drivers, pedestrians, traffic controllers and other components involved. For example, a vehicle in the traffic flow can be viewed as an agent. It is a part of its environment, i.e. the traffic networks. This agent can sense and interact with the environment by knowing the existence and movements other adjacent vehicles on roads. It continuously exists in the environment (networks) until achieving its goal (reaching the destination). Thus, the behaviour of vehicles in networks fit the characteristics of agents defined in Section 7.1.1. The agent-based modelling is believed to be an ideal tool for simulating the traffic flow.

Microscopic traffic simulation and agent-based modelling
Traffic simulation models have been developed after the introduction of computers in 1950s (Skabardonis and May, 1998). These models can be divided into three categories: microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic, which are classified according to the level of detail of representing the traffic system. Within these three categories, the microscopic models describe the system based on simulating the movements and interactions of the system entities. As each vehicle in the system progress in the networks to reach its destination according to certain rules, this type of traffic simulation models actually connote the concept of agent-based modelling. However, despite the similarity, not all the microscopic traffic models are programmed by using the agent-based modelling technique. There are two simple ways to tell the differences between these two types of models: 1) The distributed database system: An important characteristic of agent-based modelling is the distributed database system, which enables each entity to have its own memory for holding attributes and data. Such database system has the advantage over the centralised database system when dealing with the communication and the one-to-multiple interactions (such as the path choice
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model in Section 4.3) among agents. On the contrary, such relationships and interactions between entities will make a centralised database complicated. 2) The simulation process: Another way to examine whether a simulation model is agent-based is to investigate its simulation process. An agent should have encapsulated all its behaviour, decision-making process, properties and memory into an autonomous entity. When scheduling the events in the simulation programme, there would be no complex statements to direct the agents’ actions in the main simulating procedure. For example, the ‘Swarm-like'procedure introduced in Sections 7.1.4 and 7.2 is a typical simulation process of agent-based modelling.

Agent-based traffic simulation models
Several models have claimed or been claimed to be agent-based. Some of them were developed for specific objectives which relied on the agent-based technique to provide better solutions. Nagel and Schreckenberg’s cellular automata model (1992) has generally been interpreted as an agent-based model. Their model, further developed into TRANSIMS (Smith, 1995), demonstrated that the complex traffic phenomena were shown to emerge from the interactions of some simple rules between vehicles. Its agent-based structure also demonstrated the ability of parallel computing, so a large scale simulation could be conducted. Bazzan et al. (1999) adopted Nagel and Schreckenberg’s model (1992) to investigate the impacts of drivers’ long-term route choice strategies on the traffic in networks. Nagel and Raney (2003) further used this technique to simulate the route choosing and learning process of up to 7.5 million travellers in the urban networks. The agent-based model of El Hadouaj et al. (2000) enabled drivers to make their mid-term plan by reacting to the movements of a cluster of vehicles. Paruchuri et al. (2002) used an agent-based model to simulate the traffic flow, so the aggressive level of the drivers can be modelled. Hidas (2005) modelled the lane-changing behaviour in a
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congested flow in which the vehicles needed to cooperation with others to make movements. These simulation models employed the agent-based technique to achieve certain objectives which were more difficult to be accomplished by using the non-agent-based programming methods. These models showed that the distributed control system was capable of dealing with the situations such as one-to-multiple interactions, heterogeneous traffic, different driving strategies, learning, and cooperation between drivers. These are important issues that a model for simulating motorcycle behaviour will face.

7.1.3 Agent-based modelling for this study
This study intends to develop a simulator which is able to describe the two-dimensional movements and decision-making processes of motorcycles in mixed traffic. However, a traffic system containing motorcycle, particularly in urban networks, usually has complex interactions among vehicles. The agent-based modelling technique is chosen for this task due to the following reasons: 1) Heterogeneous traffic: In mixed traffic, different types of vehicles have different attributes, including vehicles’ physical and kinematic properties, drivers’ characteristics and behaviour patterns, and drivers’ manoeuvring strategies and decision-making processes. The variety of the attributes makes the database arrangement and the software programming complicated. The agent-based architecture is a solution for this type of problems. 2) Multi-vehicular interaction: The interactions between a motorcycle and its surroundings are complex. The agent-based technique is suitable for representing such interaction by providing each agent the computational ability and memory to identify its neighbourhood and make decisions. For example, in the simulation programme, in order to simulate the path choice behaviour, the vehicles around
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the subject motorcycle have to be searched before their relationships to the subject motorcycle are recognised. After the information has been gathered, the motorcyclist’s decision of path choice then can be calculated. Using the agent-based programming architecture will make this software developing process easier. 3) Conflicts among the manoeuvring strategies: There are conflicts among a motorcyclist’s manoeuvring strategies when he is moving towards his destination. The manoeuvring strategies of a motorcyclist could generally be grouped into three categories, i.e. the short-term, mid-term and long-term plans. The short-term plan of a motorcyclist is the vehicle following behaviour and the gap acceptance behaviour. The movements are determined by the vehicle following models and the rules of gap acceptance. The mid-term plan is decided by the path choice behaviour, which is the tactic to progress through (or within) a cluster of vehicles. The long-term plan is to reach the destination of the journey, which is the goal of the vehicle. Sometimes there are conflicts between these plans. For example, when a motorcycle is having a long headway, the vehicle-following model would direct it to speed up and move straight forwards, whereas the path choice model might suggest it to make a lateral movement to get a better chance to progress through the cluster of vehicles in front. To deal with this type of conflicts, the entities in the simulation system should have memory and the computational ability to make decisions. Again, the agent-oriented programming is suitable for this task. 4) Cooperation between agents: The term ‘cooperation’ usually refers to that the entities of a system work together to achieve their common goal. However, the cooperation behaviour here describes the situation that an agent gives way to another agent, similar to the study in Hidas (2005). In the conventional
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microscopic traffic models, vehicles usually react to the environment passively. However, motorcyclists tend to adopt an active driving style and make progress by making use of opportunities (Martin et al., 2001). Such driving style sometimes causes conflicts between different vehicle types. For example, sometimes motorcyclists pull out into small gaps (Horswill and Helman, 2003), forcing the lag vehicle to follow by an extremely small safety margin. This is a condition that the conventional gap acceptance and car-following theories do not consider. As a result, these conventional theories will direct the lag vehicle to exhibit unrealistic movements, i.e. it will react to the short following distance by applying severe brakes. Therefore, these conventional theories cannot represent the weaving behaviour of motorcycles. However, this type of conflicts can be tackled by the negotiation and cooperation ability of the agent-based modelling effortlessly. Through the cooperation between the motorcycle and the lag vehicle, the latter will anticipate the merging of the motorcycle, make a mid-term plan for it, and react to the extremely short following distance gently after the motorcycle has cut in. From the above discussions, it can be summarised that, generally, a non-agent-based microscopic traffic simulation model can represent the movements of the vehicles properly. However, the agent-based modelling is more powerful from the viewpoint of programming technique. By using an agent-based programming, it is easier to manage the properties, the memory and the neighbourhood information of the vehicles. In addition, the distributed nature of the programming technique enhances the performance of the entities without making the event scheduling process complicated. As a result, the spatial interactions, the update of local information and the message exchange between vehicles can be programmed without difficulties. All this makes the agent-based modelling an ideal tool for this simulator.
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7.1.4 Selecting the agent-based modelling tool for this study
Currently, a number of programming libraries or software packages developed for agent-based modelling are available. Also, some microscopic traffic simulation models which use the concept of agent-based modelling have been developed. This subsection will, firstly, introduce a number of tools and then determine a suitable one for this study.

Requirements
In order to meet the nature of this study, several criteria have to be taken into consideration. These are introduced as follows: 1) Bottom-up approach: The microscopic simulation should provide the support to define local behaviours of entities. 2) Availability of the source code: The source code of software should be available, so it can provide the largest flexibility to modify the model. 3) Visual display: The visual representation medium is indispensable to an agent-based model. In addition, the visual is an important feature in traffic modelling (Gipps, 1986c), especially for examining the trajectories of motorcycles in this study. 4) Object-oriented programming: Agent-based modelling can be programmed in any language, but the object-oriented programming (OOP) languages such as Java, Visual Basic, C++, etc are the most appropriate (for example, Luck et al., 1997) because of the similarity between the concept of an agent and an object. The selected software should be developed by using object-oriented language, so the inter-agent communication can be simulated easily.

Agent-based modelling tool kits
There are a number of programming libraries or software packages developed for agent-based modelling. Several studies (Dugdale, n.d.; Foucart, 2001; Tobias and
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Hofmann, 2004) have reviewed the advantages and disadvantages of these tools and concluded that Swarm (Swarm Development Group, 2004) and Repast (Repast Development Team, 2007) seem to be the better tools for social science studies, as the others were outstanding in some specific situations. Between these two software packages, Repast is inspired by Swarm. In addition, it can take few efforts for transferring between Swarm and Repast because of their identical ‘Swarm-like’ programming approach. Despite their similarity, Foucart (2001) and Dugdale (n.d.) regarded Swarm as the most powerful and flexible tool for agent-based modelling although it had a very steep learning curve. However, Tobias and Hofmann (2004) gave Repast a higher ranking than Swarm because Repast had better terms of license and online FAQ response. In addition, it was easier to install and use Repast, which also supported sounder high-level functions for programming. However, these tool kits, including the Swarm-like packages and other libraries developed for agent-based modelling, have some limitations when they are applied to this study: 1) Lattice-based agents: Most of the simulation environments in these tool kits are based on lattice. In such a context, all the agents basically have the same size and the relative locations to the neighbours are constrained. This is not suitable for a traffic simulation because, firstly, the sizes of vehicles vary in the mixed traffic flow; and, secondly, a space-continuous environment, rather a latticed one, is needed. 2) The size of the simulation environment: Although this study has tested that the Repast was capable of reaching the dimensions of 1,000 by 1,000, this was not enough for traffic modelling. Given that the resolution was 20 cm/lattice, the simulation environment could only accommodate a space of 200 m by 200 m, which was not sufficient for a road traffic study.
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Microscopic traffic simulation models
Some of the microscopic traffic simulation models have used the concept of agent-based modelling. The disadvantages of adapting these software packages for this research are analysed below: 1) Lane-based environment: Most of the microscopic traffic models are developed mainly for simulating the double-track vehicles. The feasibility of revising the lane-based environment to the floating lane-based environment can be a problematic issue. 2) Learning curve: There is a steep learning curve before being proficient in the modification of the source code of any developed traffic simulation model. 3) Scope: The scope of this study is to simulate the characteristic movements of motorcycles in a traffic stream. However, the traffic simulation software is usually developed for simulating a network. This may lead to difficulties and complexities when revising the original software.

The tool for this study
Based on the aforementioned analyses, both software packages developed for agent-based modelling and the ready-made microscopic traffic simulation models seem to have their limitations and thus are not appropriate for this study. As a result, developing a tailor-made programme which provides the full flexibility of designing the agent-based simulation environment is likely to be a better solution for this study. Finally, the Java language was selected for programming this simulator. Java is an object-oriented programming language which derives much of its syntax from C and C++. It was chosen due to the following advantages: 1) Object-oriented programming: Java is an object-oriented programming language which is suitable for developing an agent-based computer simulation programme.
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2) Easy to shift to Swarm or Repast: Swarm and Repast, two powerful and popular libraries in the area of agent-based modelling, are developed based on the Java language. Therefore, the code developed in this study can be shifted to Swarm or Repast easily if necessary. 3) Easy to share the result via the Internet: Java has the characteristic of ‘writing a programme once, compiling it once, and running it anywhere’. The simulation results can be presented via the Internet easily.

7.2 The simulator
The simulator for modelling the mixed traffic flow in this study is introduced in this section. The framework of this simulator adopts the Swarm-like procedure to conduct the simulation and present the results. This procedure, which is very powerful and flexible for agent-based modelling, can be largely divided into four parts: agents, the representation, the user interface and the schedule for activities. These components will be introduced in turn in the following subsections. 1) Agents: agents including individuals (motorcycles, cars, traffic signals) and aggregate agents (traffic flow). 2) The environment: the virtual world that creates, runs and displays the agents. The environment itself is another agent or is constituted by agents. 3) User interface: the objects to receive instructions from users, collect information from the agents, and output data to files or graphs. The data collectors or observers can also be regarded as agents. 4) The schedule of activity: the schedule to arrange the time and events for the agents and the environment.

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7.2.1 The agents
The agents in this simulator consist of motorcycles and passenger cars. The specifications of these agents are described in this subsection.

7.2.1.1 Motorcycle
This subsection focuses upon describing the settings of a motorcycle’s properties:

Dimensions
The size of the motorcycles in this simulator is set to be 0.75 m by 1.65 m.

Aggressive level
A value to represent the aggressive level of each motorcyclist, uniform distribution, uniform(0, 1), 0
n n,

is sampled from a

1. The larger the value, the more aggressive

behaviour a motorcyclist will exhibit. Other parameters, such as the desired speed, the lateral speed, the desired braking deceleration and the speculative preceding braking deceleration, are generated or calculated via this value.

Desired speed
In the example given in Gipps’ (1981) study, the desired speed of vehicles was sampled from a normal population, normal(20.0, 3.22) m/sec. Unlike the setup of Gipps’ model, the context of this simulator is based on urban networks. The desired speeds of motorcyclists are given according to the speed limit, which is assumed to be 13.4 m/sec (30 mph or 48 km/hr). Thus, the desired speed is set to be truncated-normal-1(
n;

13.4,

3.22, 11.2, 14.8) m/sec, where truncated-normal-1 is the inverse truncated normal cumulative distribution function;
n

is the aggressive level of the motorcyclist n. The

upper bound and the lower bound of this distribution are set to be 14.8 m/sec (33 mph) and 11.2 m/sec (25 mph) by default. The value of 33 mph is 10% more than the speed limit to represent the speeding behaviour of motorcyclists.
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Lateral speed
The calibration results shown in Section 6.1.4.3 reveal that in case of emergency, motorcyclists would like to adopt a lateral speed drawn from lognormal(0.88, 0.412) when making a leftwards movement and from lognormal(0.88, 0.472) when making a leftwards movement. The value of the shape and scale parameters are calculated from the mean and variance of vw (see Table 6.5 and Table 6.6) by assuming its right-skewed posterior distribution is lognormally distributed. Thus, the lateral speed of a motorcycle for calculating the longitudinal force is obtained from lognormal-1( and from lognormal-1(
n; n;

0.88, 0.412) m/sec when making a leftwards movement

0.88, 0.472) m/sec when making a rightwards movement. The
n

lognormal-1 here is the inverse normal cumulative distribution function. aggressive level of the motorcyclist n.

is the

The above lateral speeds represent the lateral speeds that motorcyclists are willing to use when following closely. However, under the normal situations, motorcyclists do not need to use the maximum lateral speed. The lateral speed for motorcycle steering is set to be a gentle value, 0.2 m/sec.

Desired braking deceleration
The desired braking decelerations of vehicles were suggested to be sampled from normal(-3.4, 0.62) m/sec2 in Gipps’ (1981) application. Here the desired braking decelerations are estimated by using the longitudinal headway model, drawn from normal-1(1n,-4.3,

0.52) (see Table 6.6).

Speculative preceding braking deceleration
In Gipps’ study, the speculative braking deceleration for the leading vehicle was suggested to be sampled from min{-3.0, normal(-3.2, 0.32)} m/sec2. In this simulator, the speculative braking deceleration from a motorcyclist is estimated by using the
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longitudinal model, drawn from min{-3.0, normal-1(16.6).

n,-3.8,

0.52)} m/sec2 (see Table

Acceleration
The acceleration was suggested to be normal(1.7, 0.32) m/sec2 in Gipps’ study (1981). The same assumption is used in this study for the motorcyclist.

7.2.1.2 Passenger car
The behaviour of a passenger car in this simulator is comparatively straightforward, as the only consideration for its movements is the car-following behaviour within its present lane. The car-following model of Gipps (1981) is adopted here to describe the interaction between a passenger car and its preceding vehicle. No lane-changing behaviour is considered for a passenger car.

Dimensions
The widths of the cars are sampled from a normal distribution, normal(1.6, 0.052) m; the lengths are sampled from normal(4.3, 0.202) m.

Aggressive level, desired speed and acceleration
The generations of car drivers’ aggressive level, desired speed and acceleration rate are assumed to be the same with those of motorcyclists’.

Desired braking deceleration
The desired braking decelerations of car drivers are estimated by using the longitudinal headway model, drawn from normal-1(1n,

-4.8, 0.92) (Lee et al., 2007).

Speculative preceding braking deceleration
The speculative braking deceleration from a car driver is estimated by using the longitudinal model, drawn from min{-3.0, normal-1(1n,

-4.5, 0.52) } (Lee et al., 2007).

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Lateral position in a lane
The lateral clearance between two vehicles is an important factor for motorcycles’ filtering and swerving behaviour. Therefore, it is not appropriate to locate all the cars in the same lateral position in the lanes. It is assumed that the lateral position of a car in a lane is given following the beta distribution, i.e.
wlane/2 + [beta(3, 3) - 0.5] × (wlane - wvehicle )/2,
(7.1)

where wlane and wvehicle are the widths of the lane and the vehicle respectively.

7.2.2 The environment
The spatial structure of the virtual world of this simulator is a one-way link. Such a link consists of a traffic signal, several lanes and kerbs. The attributes of the traffic signal include: 1) The signal cycle and the lengths for signal phases 2) The on-off status of the signal 3) The location of the signal The lane constrains the lateral movements of passenger cars. It also affects the generation and the lateral position of cars. The attributes of a lane include: 1) Width and length 2) Priority: The attributes such as ‘passenger cars only’ or ‘motorcycles only’ are assigned to lanes to represent the traffic regulations. 3) Edge: The edges of the lanes are given attributes to indicate the lane discipline. 4) Kerb: The far edge of the outside lane and the near edge of the inside lane are set to be kerbs, which cannot be crossed by any vehicles.

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7.2.3 The interaction rules
The movements of the vehicles in this simulator are controlled by the interaction rules, which include the rules for longitudinal following, oblique following, path choice, gap acceptance and cooperation. These rules are detailed below:

7.2.3.1 The vehicle-following behaviour
The car-following behaviour of a passenger car
A passenger car is assumed to interact only to the preceding vehicle in this simulator and no lane-changing behaviour is considered. The car-following behaviour of a passenger car is described by Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981). This model was developed based on the principle of collision avoidance which assumed that the following speed was constrained by two conditions: free acceleration and responding to a leading vehicle. The inequality of free acceleration was obtained from an instrumented car in moderate traffic (Gipps, 1981), as shown below:
v n (t + τ ) ≤ v n (t ) + 2.5 Anτ (1 − v n (t ) v (t ) , where ) 0.025 + n Vn Vn
(7.2)

An Vn

: the maximum acceleration vehicle n wishes to undertake and : the desired speed of vehicle n. In the condition of collision avoidance, Gipps developed the inequality through the

manipulations of Newtonian equations of motion. In this model, additional time headway of half the reaction time and a safety space margin were added in order to guarantee that the following vehicle did not collide with the leading vehicle. The formula was given by:
2 v n (t + τ ) ≤ Bnτ + Bn τ 2 − Bn [2( x n −1 (t ) − s n−1 − x n (t )) − v n (t )τ −

v n −1 (t ) 2 ] , where ˆ B

(7.3)

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Bn

: the desired braking deceleration of vehicle n, : the speculative braking deceleration for the preceding vehicle, : the effective length of vehicle n, i.e. the physical length and a safety margin. Therefore, the speed of the following vehicle was constrained by Equations (7.2)

ˆ B
sn

and (7.3), given by
vn (t + τ ) = min{vn (t ) + 2.5 Anτ (1 − vn (t ) v (t ) ) 0.025 + n , Vn Vn vn−1 (t ) 2 ]} ˆ B

2 Bnτ + Bnτ 2 − Bn [2( xn−1 (t ) − sn−1 − xn (t )) − vn (t )τ −

(7.4)

In addition, the position of vehicle n at the next time step was:
x n (t + τ ) = x n (t ) + v n (t ) + v n (t + τ ) ×τ 2

(7.5)

The longitudinal following behaviour of a motorcycle
Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981) is adapted to describe the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles. In order to depict the behaviour of motorcycle, some revisions such as replacing the kinematic parameters (see Section 7.2.1.1) are made to this model. In addition, the calibration results of the longitudinal headway model (see Equations (6.1)) in Section 6.1.4.3 are integrated into the Gipps following model to depict the following behaviour of motorcycles. This modification is done by replacing the set-up of the safety margin, so Gipps following model is able to describe the feature of maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle. Gipps used the value drawn from a normal population normal(6.5,0.32) m to represent the effective length of a vehicle sn (Equation (7.4)). This meant that the safety margin the following vehicle tended to keep,
Dsafe, was normal(6.5- ln-1,0.32) m, where ln−1 was the length of the leading vehicle.

Here Dsafe, is replaced by the minimum following distance of the motorcycle Dmin. The
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effective length of a vehicle sn is specified as:
longitudin al Gipps sn=min{ sn , sn } longitudin al min sn ~ normal(ln-1 + ∆Dnt ,0.62) Gipps sn ~ normal(6.5,0.32)

(7.6)

min where ∆Dnt is the minimum longitudinal following distance in Equation (6.1). The

value of the standard deviation, 0.6, is adopted from that of ∆D min in Table 6.6. In addition, the aggressive level of motorcyclist is integrated into the random variable u'nt (see Equations (6.1)) to denote the inefficiency, the value of which is calculated by normal-1(1n;

1.79, 0.452) m when following in the left half behind the
n;

preceding vehicle and by normal-1(1-

0.87, 0.392) m when following in the right half.

The oblique following behaviour of a motorcycle
The calibration results of Equation (6.41) in Section 6.2.4.2 are integrated into the Gipps following model to depict the oblique following behaviour of motorcycles. Similar to the modelling of the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles, the effective vehicle length sn is replaced by the longitudinal projection of the minimum oblique following distance proposed in Equation (6.24). Thus, sn is described as:
oblique Gipps sn=min{ sn , sn } oblique oblique sn ~ normal(ln-1 + ∆Dnt ,min cos( Gipps sn ~ normal(ln-1+(6.5- ln-1) cos(

nt)

- u'nt ,0.32)
(7.7)

nt)

,0.32)

where u'nt (see Equations (6.1)) is as the inefficiency used in the longitudinal following model. This variable introduces the aggressive level to the oblique & lateral headway model.

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Comparisons of the specifications between this model and the Gipps following model
The vehicle-following behaviour of the vehicles in this simulator is determined by a modified Gipps following model. Based on the descriptions in this subsection and Sections 7.2.1, the comparisons of the specifications between this model and the Gipps following model are summarised, as shown in Table 7.1. In comparison with the original model, this modified model has several features: Table 7.1 Comparisons of the specifications between models
Specification Gipps following model Following model for passenger cars
Truncated-N-1( n; 13.4, 3.22, 11.2, 14.8) N-1(1- n; -4.8, 0.92)

The modified Gipps following model Longitudinal following Oblique following model for motorcycles model for motorcycles
Truncated-N-1( 11.2, 14.8)
n

Desired speed Vn (m/sec) Desired braking Bn (m/sec2) Speculative preceding ˆ braking B (m/sec2) Acceleration An (m/sec2) Reaction time (sec) Effective vehicle length sn (m) Vehicle length ln (m) Safety margin Dsafe (m) Vehicle width w (m) Lateral speed vw (m/sec) Aggressive level
n

N(20.0,3.22) N(-3.4,0.62)

; 13.4, 3.22,

Truncated-N-1( 11.2, 14.8)

n

; 13.4, 3.22,

N-1(1- n; -4.3, 0.52)

N-1(1- n; -4.3, 0.52)

min{-3.0, N(-3.2, 0.32)}

min{-3.0, N-1(1- n; -4.5, 0.52)}

Min{-3.0, N-1(1- n; -3.8, 0.52)}

min{-3.0, N-1(1-

n

; -3.8, 0.52)}

N(1.7,0.32) 0.67 N(6.5,0.32) m -

N(1.7,0.32) 0.75 ln + Dsafe N(4.3,0.22) N(2.5,0.32) N(1.6,0.052) uniform(0,1)

N(1.7,0.32) 0.75 See Equation (7.6) 1.65 m See Equation (7.6) 0.75 m Log-N-1 ( Log-N-1 (
n n

N(1.7,0.32) 0.75 see Equation (7.7) 1.65 m see Equation (7.7) 0.75 m ;0.88, 0.412) to left ;0.88, 0.472) to right Log-N-1 ( Log-N-1 (
n n

;0.88, 0.412) to left

;0.88, 0.472) to right

uniform(0,1)

uniform(0,1)

1) Two-dimensional vehicle-following: this modified model considers the influences of the lateral positions on the following behaviour. In order to achieve this purpose, the modified model has more complicated specifications, including
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the lengths, the widths and the effective lengths of vehicles (see Table 7.1). 2) Integrate the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral

headway model into the safety margin of the Gipps following model: The
effective vehicle length sn in Gipps following model consists two parts: the vehicle length ln and the safety margin that the safety margin
Dsafe. The modified models proposes

Dsafe can be replaced by the minimum following

distances Dmin in Equations (6.1) and (6.24), so the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model developed in this study can be integrated into the Gipps following model. 3) Introduce the aggressive level: it is assumed that the factors linked to the aggressive driving behaviour of a driver are highly related. When these parameters such as acceleration and braking deceleration are sampling independently, the correlations between them cannot be presented. Thus, in the modified Gipps model, the aggressive level of a driver is introduced and the relevant parameters are sampled according to it. 4) Empirical parameters: the parameters used in the modified model are obtained and calibrated from the empirical data. Gipps following model employed several parameters, the values of which were assigned arbitrarily, as discussed in Section 3.1.1.2. The modified model in this study should be able to represent the traffic characteristics more realistically since some of these parameters have been calibrated.

7.2.3.2 The path choice behaviour of a motorcycle
The longitudinal following, the oblique following and the gap acceptance (see Section 7.2.3.3) models describe the short-term plans of motorcycles, whereas the path choice model, Equations (6.55) and (4.22), directs the mid-term manoeuvres of them. Such mid-term plan might not change at each time step.
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In this simulator, the mid-term plan is decided by the comparison between the utilities of the alternatives at the current time step and the choice at the last time step. If a motorcycle is following the same leading vehicle and the choice at the last time step still has the largest utility at the current time step, then the choice continues, otherwise, re-calculate the result of the random utility model according to the surrounding environment. This process is shown in Figure 7.1.

Start Let maxVn,t =max{Vl,n,t, Vc,n,t , Vr,n,t}

Is maxVn,t = Choicen,t-1
Yes

No

Update the path choice decision Choicen,t
No

Is Vehiclen-1,t = Vehiclen-1,t-1
Yes

Choicen,t = Choicen,t-1

t = t+1

Figure 7.1 The decision-making process of the mid-term plan

7.2.3.3 Gap acceptance
Gap acceptance behaviour is a skill for deciding whether the gap is large enough for making a movement. For example, when a motorcyclist intends to move leftwards, he will assess the gaps at the left hemisphere before making the movement. The motorcyclist usually makes the gap acceptance decision according to his experience and perception. In addition, his aggressive level may also affect his judgment. Hence, the gap acceptance behaviour can be described by capturing the relationship between the aggressive level of
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the motorcyclist and his perception of the observed gap. In Section 6.3.1.2, the interacting force has been introduced to depict the magnitude of interaction between two vehicles. This variable serves as an index to represent the motorcyclist’s perception of the observed gap. Since the ranges of the interaction force and the aggressive level are both between 0 and 1, the gap acceptance behaviour of motorcyclists can be described by comparing these two variables directly:
Ynt =

1 0

if ωn ≥ forcent if ωn < forcent

,
(7.8)

where Ynt is the choice indicator variable. Its value is 1 if the gap is accepted and 0 otherwise.

7.2.3.4 Cooperation between vehicles
In mixed traffic, vehicles not just react to the movements of other vehicles passively. It is more likely to observe that a vehicle tries to change its surroundings actively. When a vehicle imposes its will on others, a process negotiation and cooperation is involved. In this study, two types of negotiation and cooperation processes are introduced:

A motorcycle pulls out into a small gap
When a motorcyclist is executing a mid-term plan to make lateral movements, or he is weaving in and out of the traffic, sometimes he is observed pulling out into a small gap between two vehicles. This situation usually happens to an aggressive motorcycle and a less aggressive lag vehicle. When the leg vehicle is forced to cooperate with this motorcycle, it will anticipate the merging and react gently to the suddenly shortened safety gap.

A slow moving motorcycle gives way to a fast following car
When a slow moving motorcycle is progressing at the central area of a lane and is
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blocking the course of a passenger car which wishes to move faster, the passenger car will ask the motorcycle to give way. The negotiation result is decided by the aggressive levels between the two vehicles involved and the traffic conditions in surroundings. The motorcycle will agree to the request if its aggressive level is lower and it is safe to move aside.

7.2.3.5 The decision-making process of a motorcycle
The framework of a motorcyclist’s decision-making behaviour is shown in Figure 7.2. In this framework, three types of mechanisms are integrated into this

Start

Longitudinal headway model
Is the longitudinal Yes gap satisfactory?
No Yes

Is the oblique and lateral gap for the next movement accepted?

No

Path choice model

Oblique & lateral headway model
Path choice
Straight Left or right

Is the oblique and lateral gap for the Yes next movement accepted?
No

Give way to the

Yes No

Cooperation rear vehicle? process
No

Pull out into a small gap?
Yes

Do not make lateral movement

Modified Gipps following model

Adjust speed

Make a lateral movement

Figure 7.2 The decision-making process of motorcyclists
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decision-making process: a) The longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the modified Gipps following model describe the collision avoidance behaviour of motorcyclists; b) The path choice model makes mid-term plans for motorcyclists when the longitudinal headways are not satisfactory; and c) The cooperation process describes the cooperation between vehicles.

7.2.4 The user interface
This simulator has a graphical user interface which consists of a main window, several control panels and observing windows, which are described below. The screenshot of the user interface is shown in Figure 7.3.

Figure 7.3 The screenshot of the agent-based simulation system developed in this study

1) The main window: The main window visualises the spatial structure of this simulation. The activities and interactions of the agents are displayed on the monitor and thus their behaviour and emerging phenomena can be observed.
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2) Control panels: The control panels are set to adjust the attributes and parameters of the simulator. 3) Observing windows: There are a number of observing windows with the function of collecting the information of the agents and displaying the graphs. The time-space trajectories of vehicles are able to output to a text file. In addition, the fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow are drawn and updated instantly in the observing windows.

7.2.5 The schedule of activity
Scheduling is an important element of the agent-based modelling. It organises the events and activities to happen in a time sequence. The schedule should be arranged by the researcher according to his simulation scenario. The simulation results shown in this study (see Sections 7.3 and 7.4) were arranged by the schedule discussed below: 1) Simulation time: 12,000 sec. 2) Vehicle generation: The vehicles in each lane were generated by the time headways drawn from a normal distribution, normal(2000/(200+t),0.52) sec. The mean of this normal distribution decreased along with the simulation time, t, following a rectangular hyperbola curve. However, when the time headways drawn form this distribution were shorter than safety time headways, the vehicles would be generated by safety time headways. Thus, this vehicle generation mechanism could simulate the traffic which changed gradually from a free flow to a congested flow. The flow would achieve the maximum flow rate at the simulation time of around 1,800 sec. 3) Signal control: A traffic signal was scheduled to take effect at the 1,801th sec. This traffic signal, employed for the purpose of simulating the traffic disturbance
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downstream, was installed near the end of the link. It was designed to have three signal displays with a cycle length of 93 sec. The length of the amber light was set to be the first 3 sec of the red light. In order to simulate the traffic conditions from slightly delay to the traffic gridlock, the lengths of the green and red lights varied with the simulation time. The length the red light (including the amber) was 0 sec initially, but would increase by 1 sec for every 200 sec. This schedule ensured that this simulation was able to represent all kinds of flow-speed-density compositions in the traffic. 4) Information collection: The simulation results were displayed in fundamental diagrams (see Figure 7.9, Figure 7.11 and Figure 7.12), in which the information was collected by two time spans. The dots in these diagrams represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time. The traffic information collected by every minute could have high variation, so these dots displayed the scattered patterns of some extremely conditions. In addition, the curves in these diagrams displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15 minutes. These curves were used to represent the average and general performance of the traffic over a period of time.

7.2.6 Summary
This section described the simulator developed based on the agent-based architecture for simulating the mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles. In this agent-based framework, the agents carried the properties obtained from the analyses of the field data and encapsulated certain interaction rules to control their own behaviour. The behaviour patterns simulated in this section were based on the characteristics analysed and the models developed in the previous chapters, including the vehicle-following behaviour, the short-term, mid-term and long-term decision-making
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behaviour, and the cooperation behaviour. The environment and the schedule of activity provided the spatial and temporal contexts for these agents. The user interface enabled the researchers to communicate with the simulator. This framework constructed a solid structure to simulate the motorcycle behaviour. The verifications and applications of this simulator will be introduced in the next two sections.

7.3 Verification
The aim of verification is to ensure that the simulator works as intended (Benekohal, 1991). The behaviour patterns of motorcycles and the properties of the traffic flow in this simulation system are examined to make certain that this system is able to achieve the objectives of this study. These are elaborated below.

7.3.1 Representation of the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles
One of the objectives of this simulator is to represent the characteristic movements of motorcycles analysed in Section 2.1.3.1. Thus, it is critical to ensure that this simulator is able to achieve this task. The trajectories of the vehicles produced by this simulator are employed to examine these behaviour patterns. Figure 7.4 shows the time-space trajectories extracted from Scenario I in Section 7.4.2. The details of the scenario settings can be found in that section. Figure 7.4a displays the trajectories of the vehicles of the whole link, while Figure 7.4b shows only the trajectories of the vehicles in the outer lane. The discontinuous trajectories in Figure 7.4b are caused by the lane-changing of motorcycles. Amongst those behaviour patterns described in Section 2.1.3.1, the filtering behaviour is the most distinctive one to present the motorcycle behaviour. Figure 7.4a illustrates that this simulator is able to represent this behaviour pattern. In addition, it also shows that when passenger cars are queuing behind the red light, some motorcycles
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can percolate through the stationary vehicles and move to the head of queues. From Figure 7.4b, some motorcycles are observed to have extremely small headways. These observations come from the situations such as travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane, tailgating and oblique following. These plots reveal that this simulator can generally represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles.
(m)

Passenger car trajectory Motorcycle trajectory Time
(sec)

(a) Trajectories from Scenario I in Section 7.4.2 (3 lanes)

(m)

Passenger car trajectory Motorcycle trajectory Time
(sec)

(b) Trajectories from Scenario I in Section 7.4.2 (the outer lane)

Figure 7.4 Time-space plot of the trajectories in mixed traffic flow
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7.3.2 The effects of the dynamic virtual lane based models
The time-space trajectories in homogeneous passenger car and motorcycle flows are plotted in Figure 7.5. The data shown in this plot is extracted from Scenarios V and VIII in Section 7.4.4, where the details of the scenario settings can be found. Basically, Figure 7.5a represents the simulation outputs of the Gipps following model as this simulator adopts the Gipps following model to direct the movements of passenger cars, whereas Figure 7.5b represents the output of the model developed in this study (see Table 7.1). By comparing the three plots in Figure 7.5a, Figure 7.5b and Figure 7.4a, it is found that the trajectories behind the red light are more chaotic when the flow contains motorcycles, whereas the trajectories from a lane-based traffic are more orderly and tidy. The road densities in the flow containing motorcycles are also higher. In addition, shock waves can be observed in the flows with passenger cars, but are not obvious in the homogeneous motorcycle flow. The speeds of shock waves shown in Figure 7.5a are around 25 km/hr, which is a little faster than the speed of 18.34 km/hr obtained from the empirical survey introduced in Lu and Skabardonis (2007). The reason for obtaining a higher speed in Figure 7.5a is that it shows the trajectories of a saturated flow in which the vehicles are generated with short time headways. Thus the accumulation of the queues is faster. The comparison between Figure 7.5a and Figure 7.5b shows that a lane-based model cannot exhibit the chaotic trajectories of a non-lane-based model even though the road has been divided into several lanes. This implies that the technique of modelling motorcycle behaviour by dividing the lane into several fixed virtual lanes, for example, cellular automata, could not be able to represent the behaviour of motorcycles in mixed traffic realistically. From these comparisons, several points can be drawn:

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(m)

Passenger car trajectory Motorcycle trajectory Passenger car trajectory Time
(sec)

(a) Trajectories from Scenario V in Section 7.4.4 (3 lanes)
(m)

Motorcycle trajectory
(sec)

Time

(b) Trajectories from Scenario VIII in Section 7.4.4 (3 lanes)

Figure 7.5 Time-space plot of the trajectories in homogeneous traffic flow

1) This simulator is able to represent the traffic flow properly. The time-space plots show that this system is able to display the queues, the queue discharge and shock waves of the lane-based traffic flow. 2) The system is able to present more chaotic trajectories when the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles integrated in the simulator take effect.
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3) The models and framework proposed in this study are able to represent the characteristics of a non-lane-based traffic flow.

7.3.3 The cooperation between vehicles
One of the strengths of the agent-based modelling framework is its ability to handle the cooperation behaviour of agents. The behaviour of a motorcyclist’s weaving in and out of traffic or merging into a small gap is an example that this simulator is able to deal with. The trajectories in Figure 7.6 show that a motorcycle is moving laterally and leaving the lag vehicle a small gap to deal with. This passenger car cooperates with this aggressive merging behaviour by adjusting to this small gap gently and waiting for the gap extending to a normal following distance. If this simulator does not have such a cooperation mechanism, the passenger car will react to the short gap by applying severe brakes and produce unreasonable vehicular trajectories. With this cooperation process, the weaving behaviour of an aggressive motorcyclist can be represented.
Passenger car Motorcycle
t=0 sec t=2 sec t=4 sec t=6 sec t=8 sec t=10 sec t=12 sec t=14 sec t=16 sec t=18 sec

(m)

Longitudinal position

(m)

Figure 7.6 The communication and cooperation behaviour of vehicles

7.3.4 Headway distribution
The headway distribution generated from the simulator is examined to check that this system is able to reproduce the similar traffic environment to the survey site. The survey site is a link with congested traffic behind a traffic signal. Two similar traffic conditions from the simulation environment are selected. Figure 7.7a presents the condition that motorcycles are behind the stop line at the beginning of the red light (see
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area I in Figure 7.7c). Figure 7.7b shows the discharge of a short queue (see area II in Figure 7.7c).

Lognormal curve

Lognormal curve

(m)

(m)

(a) The frequency distribution of the motorcycles’ longitudinal headway in area I

(b) The frequency distribution of the motorcycles’ longitudinal headway in area II

(m)

I II

Investigation area

Time

(sec)

(c) Indication of the investigation areas

Figure 7.7 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways

The longitudinal headway distributions of motorcycles under both conditions follow the lognormal distribution (p=0.209 and 0.063 respectively, K-S test, two-tailed). The means of the headways are 11.4 m and 15.2 m; the modes of these two lognormal distribution curves are 7.38 m and 7.62 m, respectively. These values look reasonable and are close to the statistics measured from the field data (see Sections 6.1.2.2 and 6.1.2.3). This shows that this simulator is able to represent properties of the traffic flow in the survey site.

7.3.5 The fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow
The built-in observers of this simulator have the functions of collecting information
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about the traffic stream and then convert the information into macroscopic traffic parameters. The fundamental diagrams generated from the simulator present the relations between traffic flow, traffic density and speed correctly (see Figure 7.9, Figure 7.11, Figure 7.12 and Figure 7.13). The dots and curves in these plots show reasonable scattered patterns and proper values. For example, the maximum flow rate for a homogeneous car flow from the simulation results is around 2,100 veh/hour/lane (see Figure 7.13), which is slightly higher than the saturated flow rates found in other studies (for example, Turner and Harahap, 1993; Cannell and Gardner, 1996; Hossain, 2001). However, as the maximum flow rate shown here does not include the start and end lost time effects in a signalised intersection, a slightly higher figure is reasonable. In addition, the maximum speed from the simulation results is around 50 km/hr, which is the desired speed set for the agents in this simulator. All this shows that this simulator works well to integrate the individual information into the aggregate information.

7.4 The applications
This simulation model can be applied to a number of areas. In this section, three applications of this simulator are presented. Section 7.4.1 describes the scenario settings of these applications. In Sections 7.4.2 and 7.4.3, the effects of the installations of the designated motorcycle lane and the motorcycle reservoir are evaluated respectively. In Section 7.4.4, the Passenger Car Unit (PCU) values of motorcycles are estimated.

7.4.1 The scenario settings
In order to evaluate the above tasks, eight scenarios were created. Table 7.2 summarises the basic settings of these scenarios. Scenarios I and II were used to analyse the influences of installing a motorcycle lane. Scenarios I to IV were employed to evaluate the effects of the motorcycle reservoir behind the traffic signal. Scenario I and
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Scenarios V to VIII were used to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles under different traffic compositions. Further details of the scenario specifications will be provided in each subsection.

Table 7.2 Specifications of the scenarios
Scenario Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV Scenario V Scenario VI Scenario VII Scenario VIII Proportion of motorcycles 25% 25% 25% 25% 0% 50% 75% 100%

Motorcycle reservoir (depth) No No Yes (5m) Yes (5m) No No No No

Motorcycle Lane No Yes No Yes No No No No

Lane widths from off-side to near-side (m) 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6 2.9, 2.9, 2.9 and 1.3 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6 2.9, 2.9, 2.9 and 1.3 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6

7.4.2 The effects of the installation of a motorcycle lane
Motorcycle lane refers to a special lane which gives priority to small vehicles such as motorcycles and bicycles. The installation of motorcycle lanes is common in some Asian countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia. Recently, the UK government also started to evaluate the possibility of allowing motorcycles for using the bus lanes (DfT, 2005a). The installation of motorcycle lanes is believed to be able to reduce the heterogeneity of the traffic and improve the road safety. However, besides the safety issues, the influences of motorcycles lanes on the road capacity is an important topic to be studied. Scenarios I and II were used to assess the effects of the installation of a motorcycle lane. In Scenario I, a one-way link which was 300 m long and 10 m wide was established in the simulator. This link consisted of three lanes. The widths of these lanes from the fast lane to the slow lane were 3.2 m, 3.2 m and 3.6 m. In order to simulate the congested flow, a traffic signal was added near the end of the link (Figure 7.8a). In Scenario II, an alternative layout plan was applied to the simulation model. Each lane in the original layout was diminished to 2.9 m in width to give a space of 1.3 m in
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width for the designated motorcycle lane (Figure 7.8b). Therefore, in the new layout only the widths of the lanes were altered. The number of lanes for cars and the width of the road remained the same.

Signal 3.6 m 3.2 m 3.2 m 290 m 10 m

(a) Scenario I- without a motorcycle lane

Signal 1.3 m 2.9 m 2.9 m 2.9 m
Motorcycle only

290 m

10 m

(b) Scenario II- with a motorcycle lane

Figure 7.8 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for motorcycle lanes

The events and activities in both scenarios were scheduled as described in Section 7.2.5. After simulating the mixed traffic flow under both scenarios, the fundamental diagrams were generated for analysing the impacts of the motorcycle lane. The diagrams of both scenarios are plotted in Figure 7.9. The dots in these diagrams represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time, whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15 minutes. Several points are concluded from the outputs of this simulation: 1) The maximum flow rate and the critical traffic density increase. In this case, by installing a motorcycle lane, the maximum flow rate increases by around 20% because of the additional capacity of the motorcycle lane. The flow rate also increases under the circumstances of congested flow. 2) The space mean speeds increase. Given the same traffic density in congested conditions, the space mean speed of the flow is higher when the motorcycle lane is installed.
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The simulation results imply that when the proportion of motorcycles is high, the installation of a motorcycle lane is necessary. It is an efficient and economic way to reduce the heterogeneity of the mixed traffic and increase the road capacity.

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7.4.3 The effects of the installation of an advanced stop line
The advanced stop line refers to an additional stop line for double-track vehicles situated a few metres back from the primary stop line. These two stop lines constitute a reservoir area for waiting single-track vehicles to occupy. In some European countries such as the UK and the Netherlands, advanced stop lines are introduced to reduce conflict between cyclists and motorists at signalised junctions (Cycling England, 2007). In Asian countries such as Taiwan, motorcycles are allowed to access the reservoir areas and enjoy a short start-up time to pass the intersection. It is believed that the motorcycle reservoir at the front of a queue can increase the capacity of the road, as May and Montgomery (1986) have reported that the motorcycles leaving the intersection with the first 6 sec of the green time will not affect the capacity of the intersection. Recently the UK government started to evaluate the possibility of allowing motorcycles into advance stop lines (DfT, 2005a). This simulator is able to assess this issue from the viewpoint of traffic flow control. Scenarios I to IV were employed to assess the effects of the motorcycle reservoir. The specification details of Scenarios I and II have been described in Section 7.4.2. The settings of Scenarios III and IV were identical to Scenarios I and II respectively, except the advanced stop lines, as shown in Figure 7.10. The depth of the motorcycle reservoirs were 5 metres. After simulating these scenarios according to the schedule described in Section 7.2.5, the fundamental diagrams were employed to analyse the impacts of the motorcycle reservoir. The diagrams of Scenarios I and II are plotted in Figure 7.9 and those of Scenarios III and IV are shown in Figure 7.11. The dots in these diagrams represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time, whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15 minutes.

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The advanced stop line does not influence the flow as the traffic signal does not take effect. However, it starts to influence the flow when the signal works. From the simulation results, several points are concluded from the outputs of this simulation: 1) The advanced stop lines increase the flow rate in congested situations. The motorcycle reservoirs allow the vehicles to reorganise their locations during the red periods, so the mixed traffic become less heterogeneous. Under the conditions of the same flow speeds (speed-flow diagram in Figure 7.11c), the flow rate increase after the installation of the advanced stop lines. This is caused by the more organised traffic and the phenomenon that motorcycles leaving the intersection with the first 6 sec of the green time would have a PCU equivalent of 0 (May and Montgomery, 1986). 2) The advanced stop lines decrease the density of the flow in congested

situations. The motorcycle reservoirs take up some road spaces. Under the
conditions of the same flow speeds (speed-density diagram in Figure 7.11c), the flow densities drop after the installation of the advanced stop lines due to the fact that the motorcycle reservoirs sometimes cannot be used efficiently.

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Figure 7.11 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without the motorcycle reservoir 3) The advanced stop line does not affect the flow-density pattern significantly. As shown in the flow-density diagram of Figure 7.11c, the flow-density patterns, both for the situations of with and without a motorcycle lane, do not show significant differences after the advanced stop lines have installed. Given the same flow rate, the installation of advanced stop lines actually changes only the
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scatterd patterns of motorcycles during the red periods, but do not change the flow density.

7.4.4 The PCU values of motorcycles
In Section 2.2, it has been discussed that motorcycles can exploit the road space which is usually unusable for passenger cars. As the number of motorcycles increases, the road space can be used more efficiently and thoroughly. From this viewpoint, the presence of motorcycles can add the capacity of a road. Thus, the PCU (Passenger Car Unit) equivalent of motorcycles is likely to decrease as their number on roads increases. In addition, when the movements of passenger cars are constrained due to high traffic density, motorcycles are still able to progress by filtering. Hence, the PCU equivalent of motorcycles would be lower when the traffic congestion is severer. Based on the above discussions, it is hypothesised that the PCU equivalents of motorcycles vary with different vehicle compositions and traffic speeds. This simulator was employed to investigate these hypotheses and to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles. Scenarios I and V to VIII were employed to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles under different traffic compositions. The settings of Scenarios V to VIII were identical to Scenarios I, except the proportions of motorcycles generated. Motorcycles accounted for 25% of the traffic flow in Scenario I, and 0%, 50%, 75% and 100% in Scenarios V to VIII respectively. The simulation results are represented by using the speed-flow and flow-density fundamental diagrams, as shown in Figure 7.12 and Figure 7.13. The dots in these diagrams represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time, whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15 minutes.

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Figure 7.12 The fundamental diagrams under different traffic compositions
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(km/hr) Scenario VIII: 100% motorcycle flow 100 Scenario VII: 75% motorcycle flow Scenario VI: 50% motorcycle flow Scenario I: 25% motorcycle flow Scenario V: 100% passenger car flow

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Proportion of motorcycles

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Figure 7.14 The flow rates and PCU values from the simulation results

The PCU equivalents were estimated by using the Webster’s method (Kimber et al., 1985), in which variation of the saturated flow rates caused by the presence of motorcycles were calculated so the impact of motorcycles on the capacity of the flow could be estimated. In this study, the PCU values under the maximum critical density and different space mean speeds (see Figure 7.14) were obtained. From the simulation results, several points are concluded and discussed: 1) The presence of motorcycles enlarges the capacity of the road. From the density-flow relations, it is found that the maximum flow rate increases
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following the raise of the proportion of motorcycles (Figure 7.14a). This effect is generally attributed to motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour patterns, which facilitate motorcycles to make most use of the road space. This result also shows that motorcycles have advantages over other transport modes in congested urban networks. 2) The PCU values of motorcycles vary with the congestion level. From Figure 7.14b, it is found that motorcycles have advantages in congested urban networks. Their PCU values are higher when the congestion is severer. When the flow speed is 10 km/hr, the PCU values are around 0.4. However, when the speed of the flow is lager than 20 km/hr as the PCU values are above 0.5. 3) The PCU values for motorcycles are higher than 0.5 in free flow or minor

congested flow. Usually the figure of motorcycles’ PCU used in transport
management is 0.5, but the PCU values obtained from this simulation are higher in free flow or minir congested flow. This implies that after considering the safety margins, a motorcycle would take up more than half the road space a car needs in free flow, particularly under the conditions that the effects of filtering and other characteristic behaviour are not significant. 4) It is not clear whether the proportion of motorcycles affect their PCU values. The values of the PCU for motorcycles vary with their advantages over passenger cars, i.e. filtering ability, etc. Such advantages do not increase along with the rising of the proportion of motorcycles. However, high proportion of motorcycles increases their chance of sharing the roadspace, which is also also affected by the vehicle scattered patterns from upstream. The settings of these simulation scenarios cannot represent the effects of these factors. 5) The vehicle generation methods could affect the PCU values estimated. In order to control the proportion of motorcycles, the vehicles were generated
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randomly by the ratios of passenger cars to motorcycles in each lane. Such a lane-based vehicle generation method is not realistic, i.e. the scattered pattern of motorcycles cannot reflect their advantage of sharing the road spaces. This vehicle generation setup could cause higher PCUs for motorcycles. It is worthwhile to point out that the installation of a motorcycle lane would affect the PCUs of motorcycles significantly. However, as motorcycles can progress through traffic congestion by using the motorcycle lane, the proportion of motorcycles in simulation system is not fixed, so this issue cannot be accommodated within the framework of this analysis. In addition, the traffic in the motorcycle lane is a homogeneous flow, which should be analysed independently from the mixed traffic flow. Another point should be noted is that from the above analyses, it seems that when simulating a mixed traffic flow, the proportion of motorcycles is more likely to be a dependent variable, rather than a fixed variable. This would be useful information for further studies on this topic.

7.5 Summary
This chapter presented an agent-based traffic simulator which was built based on the mathematical models developed in the previous chapters. Through the verification process, this simulation system demonstrated that it was able to work as intended and represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. In addition, the three applications presented at the end of this chapter offered useful information for traffic engineers. All this shows that this simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a powerful tool for conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

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8 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Work
This chapter begins by summarising the research according to the objectives mentioned in Chapter 1. Then the fields for further research are discussed in the second part.

8.1 Summary of research
In Chapter 1, the objectives of this study have been stated. These objectives are then successfully addressed in Chapters 2 to 7. In this section, the objectives are restated and the relevant findings are summarised.

Characterise motorcycle behaviour patterns
1) Nine behaviour patterns describing the unique movements of motorcycles

were characterised by summarising the findings from literature and the
observations of this study. Some of these behaviour patterns have never been pointed out by other studies. These behaviour patterns should not be neglected when developing models to describe the mixed traffic flow since they affected the mixed traffic flow significantly. 2) The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars were analyses. It was believed that the characteristic behaviour of motorcycle originated from these differences. Therefore, a systematic analysis was conducted from the physical, psychological and mechanical viewpoints. This comprehensive analysis integrated the information from the literature and prepared the ground for the subsequent motorcycle behaviour research. 3) Extracted the key elements of motorcycle behaviour: According to the assumption of complexity theory, the simple rules can result in complex
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behaviour. Therefore, it was suggested that the motorcycle behaviour could be described by modelling some key elements. After analysing the behaviour patterns of motorcycles, these key elements were recognised and extracted. Three models were then proposed to describe these basic elements, namely the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. These analyses laid the base for the development of the agent-based model. It has been proven in Chapter 7 that by capturing these fundamental elements, a simulation model could represent the characteristic properties of mixed traffic containing motorcycles.

Identified the gaps and weaknesses in current microscopic treatments for simulating motorcycles in traffic flow
4) The limitation of the lane-based models: The conventional car-following and lane-changing models are developed based on the assumption of lane-based flow. These lane-based models cannot describe the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles properly because they do not consider the interactions between the lateral positions and the longitudinal movements. In addition, the lateral position of the motorcycle is more likely to be a continuous variable rather than a discrete variable. For the same reason, the cellular automata model is not suitable for describing mixed traffic containing motorcycles. 5) The availability of the data: It is found that a lack of proper field data has constrained the study of motorcycle behaviour. To obtain a data set of motorcycles’ two-dimensional trajectories is crucial for a microscopic investigation because the lateral movements within a lane cannot be neglected. Therefore, to obtain trajectory data for motorcycles is the key to the success of the studies on this topic. In order to tackle this issue, a data collection system capable of providing the data for motorcycle studies was then developed, as
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described in Chapter 5. 6) Dealing with the effects of the lateral position: It is found that the techniques to describe the lateral movements of motorcycles are just at the preliminary stage. The modelling of the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles is complicated because it has to consider the effects of the lateral position. In addition, the dynamic virtual lane-based nature of motorcycles is a significant characteristic which will affect their lateral movements. To tackle the interaction between the lateral positions and the longitudinal movements is the major limitation of the conventional models for vehicular movements. This is the main challenge in the modelling of motorcycle behaviour.

Developed models to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles
Based on the analyses in Chapter 2, three models were developed to describe motorcycle movements. The features and the calibrations of these models are summarised as following: 7) The longitudinal headway model focused on describing the phenomenon that a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle. This behaviour pattern was an important characteristic of motorcycles’ movements. It affected the longitudinal following behaviour, the overtaking behaviour and the swerving behaviour significantly. By capturing this feature, the behaviour of motorcycle could be described more accurately. 8) The oblique & lateral headway model described the headway distribution pattern of motorcycles when they were following the preceding vehicles obliquely (or laterally). The headway was modelled in a two-dimensional manner to depict the interaction between the longitudinal movements and lateral movements of motorcycles. 9) The path choice behaviour was modelled by using a multinomial logit model.
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The path referred to the dynamic virtual lane which was defined by the vehicles around the subject motorcycle. The concept of dynamic virtual lane-based movement was the most important factor to characterise the difference to the lane-based models. 10) Filling the gaps: These models successfully dealt with the critical limitations found in the literature, for example, to describe the interaction between the longitudinal following distance and the lateral position, and the dynamic virtual lane-based movements. 11) The data for calibrating the above three models were collected by using the video recording methods. A computer programme was developed to extract the vehicular trajectories from the video footage. This data extracting system was capable of producing highly accurate data. By controlling the errors caused by perspective and occlusion in images carefully, the database generated from this system was able to achieve higher accuracy than other data sets surveyed by similar methods. The database built could generate a wide variety of traffic parameters. It has been proven in Chapter 6 that this database was able to support the motorcycle movement study and provided the information objectively and flexibly. 12) The calibrations: The longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model were calibrated by using the Bayesian analysis. The main reason for employing the Bayesian approach was that the error terms of the longitudinal and oblique (or lateral) headways were not normally distributed. The Bayesian approach is a powerful tool for dealing with the non-normally distributed error terms. The calibration results showed that the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model fitted the field data well. The multinomial logit modelling was employed to describe the path choice
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behaviour of motorcycles. After the model refinement process, it was found that factors that affected the path choice behaviour were the speed of the vehicle ahead or at the oblique front, the size of the preceding vehicle, the widths of the virtual lanes, the interacting forces at the oblique rear, and the choice of the last time step.

Developed a traffic simulation system capable of representing the motorcycle behaviour
13) An agent-based traffic simulator was built to represent the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. This simulator was developed by using the Java language, which was a powerful tool for developing an agent-based computer simulation programme. The mathematical models developed for describing the motorcycle behaviour were applied to this computer programme. This simulation system was able to work as intended and represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. 14) Three applications of this simulator were presented to show that this simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a powerful tool for conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

8.2 Recommendations for further work
This research demonstrates the capability of an agent-based approach to model the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. However, a number of directions for further research are found:

Factors contributing to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles
In Chapter 2, the essential differences between motorcycles and passenger cars have been analysed. Some strong and intuitive assumptions were also made to link these
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differences to the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. However, little research has been conducted to support these assumptions. It is worthwhile to investigate a number of issues on this topic. For example, how the manoeuvring system and the field of view affect the reaction time of a motorcyclist; how the field of view affects the safety margin that a motorcyclist maintains; how the size and the weight of a motorcycle affect the accelerating and decelerating behaviour of its rider, etc. These issues are highly relevant to the field of motorcycling safety studies, but have been neglected.

Data collection
The data obtained from video footage contain systematic errors related to perspective. The factors such as the pixel resolution, manual operation and the height of objects will cause errors which correlate with the longitudinal distance. This leads to non-constant standard deviation of errors. This study has tried to describe such systematic errors in the model by using Bayesian analysis, which is a flexible approach to dealing with non-constant error variances. However, the model proposed did not depict the systematic errors successfully. It would be worthwhile to further investigate how this type of error affects the accuracy of the data and take measures to remove or allow for these errors. Further, extracting data from video footage is an extremely labour-intensive process. Improvements on the data extracting techniques would facilitate the studies of motorcycle movements.

Modelling
The proposed models could be improved from the following aspects: 1) The lateral speed in the longitudinal headway model was supposed to be a constant (Equation (4.5)). However, this variable could vary with the vehicle speed, the turning angle and the braking deceleration. 2) The calibration results of the oblique & lateral headway model showed that the
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locus of the modes would be a straight line (Figure 6.7 and Section 6.2.4.3). However, this locus could be a curve in the real world. 3) This study assumed that the longitudinal following behaviour and the oblique following behaviour were working independently. There was no interaction between the two models. Therefore, when a motorcycle moved from one regime to the other, its interaction to the preceding vehicle did not change smoothly and continuously. How the motorcyclists react when they are shifting between the regimes of longitudinal following and oblique following should be further investigated. 4) How the car drivers react to the presence of motorcycles should be studied and modelled. In addition, the lane-changing movements of passenger cars should be added into this simulator. Also, other vehicle types to this model should be introduced into this model. 5) This study integrated the headway models into the Gipps following model to describe the vehicle-following behaviour of motorcycles. It would also be possible to integrate these headway models into a psychophysical model and make a comparison between these two procedures.

Verification and validation
There are currently no measures to verify and validate the model describing motorcycle movements at the microscopic scale. The two-dimensional trajectories of motorcycles cause the major difficulty of this task. A little change of the lateral position will affect the longitudinal headway significantly. Therefore, the interaction between the longitudinal movement and the lateral movement makes it difficult to verify and validate the model at the microscopic level. In order to ensure that the simulation system works as intended, a systematic approach to verify and validate the model for describing motorcycle behaviour should be developed.
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