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Global
Equity
Research
Peter Suozzo
+8522971 6121
peter.suozzo@ubsw.com
Stephen Cooper
+44207568 1962
stephen.cooper@ubsw.com
Gillian Sutherland
+44207568 8369
gillian.sutherland@ubsw.com
Zhen Deng
+1212713 9921
zhen.deng@ubsw.com
Valuation Primer Series Issue 1
s ss s This is the first in a series of primers on fundamental valuation topics such as
discounted cash flow, valuation multiples and cost of capital.
s ss s This document explains how to calculate and use multiples commonly used in
equity analysis.
s ss s We discuss the differences between equity and enterprise multiples, show how
target or ‘fair’ multiples can be derived from underlying value drivers and
discuss the ways multiples can be used in valuation. For each multiple, we show
its derivation, discuss its strengths and weaknesses, and suggest appropriate use.
Valuation & Accounting November 2001
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our research products are available
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Valuation Multiples: A Primer
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
2 UBS Warburg
Contents page
An Introduction to Multiples ........................................................................... 3
— What Is a Multiple?......................................................................... 3
— Advantages/Disadvantages of Multiples ........................................... 3
— Enterprise versus Equity Multiples ................................................... 5
— Why Multiples Vary......................................................................... 5
— Choosing the Pricing Date............................................................. 10
Target Valuation Multiples ........................................................................... 13
— What Is a Target Multiple?............................................................. 13
— Singlestage Target Multiples ........................................................ 14
— Twostage Target Multiples ........................................................... 15
— Examples..................................................................................... 16
— Assumptions Used in Target Multiple Formulas .............................. 17
— The Effect of Growth on Value....................................................... 18
Using Valuation Multiples............................................................................ 20
Enterprise Value Multiples........................................................................... 24
— What Is Enterprise Value?............................................................. 24
— Why Use Enterprise Value Multiples? ............................................ 25
— Potential Problems in Calculating EV............................................. 26
— Enterprise Value Multiples............................................................. 28
Equity Multiples .......................................................................................... 37
— What Are Equity Multiples? ........................................................... 37
— Equity Multiples ............................................................................ 37
Appendix: Derivation of Target Multiple Formulas ......................................... 42
Peter Suozzo
+8522971 6121
peter.suozzo@ubsw.com
Stephen Cooper
+44207568 1962
stephen.cooper@ubsw.com
Gillian Sutherland
+44207568 8369
gillian.sutherland@ubsw.com
Zhen Deng
+1212713 9921
zhen.deng@ubsw.com
For research, valuation models and more on equity analysis go to the Global Valuation Group website...
www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
3 UBS Warburg
An Introduction to Multiples
This document is intended to be a reference manual for the calculation of
commonly used valuation multiples. We explain how multiples are calculated and
discuss the different variations that can be employed. We discuss the differences
between equity and enterprise multiples, show how target or ‘fair’ multiples can be
derived from underlying value drivers, and discuss the ways multiples can be used
in valuation. For each multiple, we show its calculation and derivation from
underlying DCF fundamentals, discuss its strengths and weaknesses, and suggest
appropriate use.
This document will be maintained online and any changes will be posted to our
website at www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
What Is a Multiple?
A valuation multiple is simply an expression of market value relative to a key
statistic that is assumed to relate to that value. To be useful, that statistic – whether
earnings, cash flow or some other measure – must bear a logical relationship to the
market value observed; to be seen, in fact, as the driver of that market value.
There are two basic types of multiple – enterprise value and equity:
s ss s Enterprise multiples express the value of an entire enterprise – the value of all
claims on a business – relative to a statistic that relates to the entire enterprise,
such as sales or EBIT.
s ss s Equity multiples, by contrast, express the value of shareholders’ claims on the
assets and cash flow of the business. An equity multiple therefore expresses the
value of this claim relative to a statistic that applies to shareholders only, such as
earnings (the residual left after payments to creditors, minority shareholders and
other nonequity claimants).
Advantages/Disadvantages of Multiples
Disadvantages. There are a number of criticisms levied against multiples, but in
the main these can be summarised as:
s ss s Simplistic: A multiple is a distillation of a great deal of information into a single
number or series of numbers. By combining many value drivers into a point
estimate, multiples may make it difficult to disaggregate the effect of different
drivers, such as growth, on value. The danger is that this encourages simplistic –
and possibly erroneous – interpretation.
s ss s Static: A multiple represents a snapshot of where a firm is at a point in time, but
fails to capture the dynamic and everevolving nature of business and
competition.
s ss s Difficult to compare: Multiples are primarily used to make comparisons of
relative value. But comparing multiples is an exacting art form, because there
are so many reasons that multiples can differ, not all of which relate to true
Section 1
Two basic types: enterprise
and equity multiples
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
4 UBS Warburg
differences in value. For example, different accounting policies can result in
diverging multiples for otherwise identical operating businesses.
Advantages Despite these disadvantages, multiples have several advantages.
s ss s Usefulness: Valuation is about judgement, and multiples provide a framework
for making value judgements. When used properly, multiples are robust tools
that can provide useful information about relative value.
s ss s Simplicity: Their very simplicity and ease of calculation makes multiples an
appealing and userfriendly method of assessing value. Multiples can help the
user avoid the potentially misleading precision of other, more ‘precise’
approaches such as discounted cash flow valuation or EVA
1
, which can create a
false sense of comfort.
s ss s Relevance: Multiples focus on the key statistics that other investors use. Since
investors in aggregate move markets, the most commonly used statistics and
multiples will have the most impact.
These factors, and the existence of wideranging comparables, help explain the
enduring use of multiples by investors despite the rise of other methods.
Table 1: Advantages and Disadvantages of Valuation Multiples
Advantages Disadvantages
Useful – multiples can be robust tools that provide
useful information about relative value
Simple – ease of calculation and wide availability
of data make multiples an appealing method for
assessing value
Relevant – Multiples are based on key statistics
that investors use
Simplistic – combine many value drivers into a point
estimate. Difficult to disaggregate the effect of
different value drivers
Static – Multiples measure value at a single point in
time and do not fully capture the dynamic nature of
business and competition
Difficult to compare – Multiples differ for many
reasons, not all relating to true differences in value.
This can result in misleading ‘applestooranges’
comparisons among multiples
Source: UBS Warburg
1
‘Economic Value Added’ is a registered trademark of Stern, Stewart & Co.
Usefulness, simplicity and
relevance make multiples a
popular valuation tool
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
5 UBS Warburg
Enterprise versus Equity Multiples
In the table below we have summarised the relative advantages of using enterprise
value (EV) versus equity multiples and vice versa. For more details please see page
25 below.
Table 2: Enterprise Value versus Equity Multiples
Enterprise value multiples Equity multiples
Allow the user to focus on statistics where
accounting policy differences can be minimised
(EBITDA, OpFCF)
Avoid the influence of capital structure on equity
value multiples
More comprehensive (apply to the entire enterprise)
Wider range of multiples possible
Easier to apply to cash flow
Enables the user to exclude noncore assets
More relevant to equity valuation
More reliable (estimating enterprise value
involves more subjectivity, especially in the
valuation of noncore assets)
More familiar to investors
Source: UBS Warburg
Why Multiples Vary
There are four primary reasons why multiples can vary:
s ss s Differences in the quality of the business (ie differences in value drivers)
s ss s Accounting differences
s ss s Fluctuations in cash flow or profit (ie they are unrepresentative of the future)
s ss s Mispricing
1. Differences in the Quality of the Business
All things equal, higherquality businesses deserve higher valuation multiples. This
is another way of saying that there are qualitative differences in the fundamental
underlying drivers of valuation, such as quality of management, available
investment opportunities, strategy and branding. These can be distilled down to four
quantitative valuation drivers: return on capital, cost of capital, growth and duration
of growth.
As investors, we are interested in how to allow for differences in these value
drivers. How much is growth worth? What is the impact of a change in return on
capital? We consider these issues in Target Valuation Multiples, starting on page
13.
2. Accounting Differences
Differences in accounting policies that do not affect cash flow do not affect value.
But accounting policy differences do affect profit multiples and, as a result,
differences in multiples can paint a misleading picture of relative valuation.
For example, consider two identical companies with 20 of goodwill on the balance
sheet and 10 in pregoodwill profit. Company A does not amortise goodwill while
Company B amortises over 10 years (amortisation of 2 per year).
Differences in accounting
policies that do not affect
cash flow do not affect
value
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
6 UBS Warburg
Table 3: Goodwill Amortisation and Earnings Multiples
Company A Company B
Net income 10 8
Share price 200 ?
Price to earnings multiple 20x ?
Source: UBS Warburg
Since both companies have identical cash earnings they have the same value and
should trade at the same share price (same number of shares assumed). This implies
an earnings multiple of 25x for Company B. But it clearly would be wrong to
conclude that Company A is cheaper than Company B. In fact, there is no
information content whatsoever in the difference between the two multiples.
There are many different factors that cause differences in profit measurement; a
recent study comparing US GAAP with international accounting standards
identified over 250 such differences. Not all of these affect profit measurement, and
many would not have a material effect, but accounting differences are clearly not a
trivial issue. However, it appears that a few key issues dominate – depreciation,
goodwill (and other aspects of business combinations), provisioning and deferred
tax, to name some of the most important.
While it is virtually impossible to completely eliminate the impact of different
accounting methodologies, there is still much that the analyst can do to mitigate
their impact and produce data relevant to equity analysis. In particular, one can:
s ss s Restate accounting data to a common format
s ss s Focus on key statistics that are less affected by accounting differences
Restating Accounting Data
In Table 4 below we examine some of the adjustments to accounting data that can
be made to ensure greater data comparability.
Table 4: Key Adjustments to Ensure Comparable Presentation
Item Issue Adjustment
Depreciation
A major item in many company accounts and one where there
can be significant differences in accounting policies. Depreciation
can be largely unrelated to economic consumption of an asset.
Note also that depreciation can be affected by asset revaluation.
Revaluation is permitted under IAS and a number of national
accounting policies, but not under US GAAP.
Some UBSW sector teams standardise the depreciation charge,
but for the database as a whole we take a different approach.
All UBSW analysts are required to estimate ‘maintenance capital
expenditure’. This is a ‘standardised depreciation’ measure that
has the advantage of being cash flowbased and forwardlooking,
as well as unaffected by accounting differences.
Maintenance capital expenditure is a component of UBSW
operating free cash flow, a key component to our approach to
crossborder equity analysis (see page 32).
Goodwill amortisation
Differences in goodwill accounting affect profit measures, asset
values and related ratios such as return on capital.
We consider the issue of goodwill more fully in our report Equity
Analysis InsideOut No 2: Goodwill in Equity Analysis, July 2001.
While we believe goodwill is an important asset that should be
charged against profit in appropriate periods, systematic
amortisation does not provide any useful information to investors
and may even be misleading.
Goodwill amortisation should be excluded from performance
statistics including operating income, net income and EPS.
However, the investment of capital in goodwill should be included
in capital employed (including previously amortised and written
off goodwill) for ROIC calculations.
Accounting differences are
not a trivial issue
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
7 UBS Warburg
Item Issue Adjustment
Provisions
IAS 37 defines provisions as liabilities of uncertain timing or
amount which should be recognised when an enterprise has
incurred a present obligation that will result in a probable, reliably
estimable outflow of resources.
In a number of markets (notably in continental Europe) standards
are more generous in permitting companies to make provisions
that may not meet IAS criteria
Where material, nonconforming provisions should be reversed
out of the profit and loss account.
For a more detailed discussion of provision accounting, see our
report Valuation and Accounting Briefing No. 2: Provision
Accounting, December 1998.
Pensions and postretirement
health benefits
For companies with defined contribution plans, no adjustments
are necessary. For companies with defined benefit plans (both
pension and postretirement health plans, for which the
accounting is similar), some adjustments may need to be made.
In most accounting systems all pension charges, including the
impact of surpluses and deficits and the interest cost of
obligations, are treated as operating items, which we believe is
incorrect.
For a more detailed discussion, see our report Equity Analysis
InsideOut No. 6: Pension Obligations, November 2001.
EBIT should reflect only ongoing service costs. Remove financial
items such as the spread between the return on pension assets
and the interest cost of the corresponding obligation, and non
operating gains and losses as a result of surpluses and deficits.
Allocation of prior gains/losses should be removed from
performance measures.
The unfunded portion of a postretirement obligation (or a net
funded deficit) should be added to enterprise value, whilst any
funded recoverable surplus should be deducted. The interest
cost relating to this liability should be removed from EBIT
measures used in conjunction with enterprise value in valuation.
Leases
There are major international differences in the treatment of
leases in company accounts, mainly involving differences in the
classification of capital (finance) leases. A capitalised lease is an
onbalance sheet debt obligation with a corresponding interest
charge; the leased asset is considered purchased. An operating
lease, by contrast, does not create a liability; the leased asset is
considered rented, not purchased, and the leasing cost is treated
as an operating, not financing expense.
Comparability would be improved, particularly with respect to
balance sheet and enterprise value ratios, by consistently
capitalising all lease obligations. Capitalisation is possible, but as
disclosure is inconsistent adjustments may be highly subjective.
As a result we do not automatically adjust for leases in our
database unless leasing is highly material; the airlines sector is a
good example of where adjustments are made.
Income from associates
Equity accounting is used almost universally to account for
associates. This means that the group’s share of associate net
income is included in the group income statement. However, the
manner in which this is achieved can differ from country to
country.
It is important to ensure consistent treatment, particularly in the
measurement of EBIT. Generally, associates are classified as
peripheral assets and are therefore excluded from UBSW ‘core
EBIT’ figures.
Unusual items
Unusual or nonrecurring gains and losses are given a variety of
names such as extraordinary, exceptional or abnormal.
Unfortunately both the type of item included in this category and
its presentation in the income statement varies.
All such ‘exceptional’ items should be excluded from EBIT and
adjusted net income figures. These ‘exceptionals’ would include
gains and losses on capital transactions and all truly oneoff
operating items such as the cost of restructuring.
Source: UBS Warburg
Focus on Key Statistics Less Affected by Accounting Differences
Since it is not possible to eliminate all accounting differences, investors and
analysts should also seek to use valuation statistics that are least likely to be
distorted by accounting. This essentially means focusing more on cash flow, rather
than profit data, and where profit measures are used, taking them from higher up the
income statement. However, keep in mind that there is a danger that key aspects of
company performance can be missed when this is done; these statistics should be
interpreted with care and preferably not in isolation.
s ss s Cash flow: The advantage of cash flow as a basis for valuation is that, when
calculated properly, it is entirely independent of accounting methodology. The
problem, though, is that, particularly on a historical basis, cash flow naturally
varies and a single year’s cash flow is not necessarily a good basis for predicting
the future. This is mitigated by using forecast cash flows since this volatility
diminishes, but even so cash flow is more suited to DCF valuations than to
performance measures and valuation multiples.
Some accounting statistics
are more comparable than
others…
…but most are incomplete
or subjective in other ways
and should be used with
care
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
8 UBS Warburg
s ss s Revenue: Revenue has often been advocated as a suitable basis for analysis and
valuation on the grounds that it is largely comparable across different
accounting systems. There are two problems with this:
— Sales are not as unaffected by accounting policies as is commonly thought;
they can be substantially affected by different interpretations of accounting
standards, although the problems are not as acute as for profit measures (see
the discussion of the enterprise value/sales multiple on page 28).
— Revenue is an incomplete measure of performance given its lack of focus on
profitability and cash flow. Revenue as a performance measure and basis for
valuation should be a last resort if other more relevant profit measures are
unavailable or unreliable.
s ss s EBITDA: EBITDA has become the most common measure of performance and
value that supposedly overcomes the problem of accounting differences. This is
partly true, in that the measure is unaffected by differences in depreciation
methods, goodwill accounting and deferred tax. Although there are other
accounting problems that do affect EBITDA (revenue and cost recognition
issues, pensions accounting, etc), it provides a useful and comparable measure.
A crucial failing of EBITDA, however, is that it ignores the very real costs of
capital expenditure and taxation that should (and do) affect value.
2
s ss s Operating free cash flow (OpFCF): OpFCF is a modified version of EBITDA
designed to retain the benefits EBITDA provides in accounting comparability
but avoid the problem of ignoring differences in capital intensity (capex).
OpFCF = EBITDA – maintenance capex – maintenance increase/(decrease) in
net working capital. ‘Maintenance capex’ is the amount an analyst estimates
must be spent on fixed assets to maintain the profitability and competitive
position of the company in real terms. It is cashbased, forwardlooking and
unaffected by accounting, unlike the related depreciation charge. OpFCF is,
therefore, a more relevant measure to use in analysis and valuation, although
less reliable due to the estimations required (see page 32).
3. Fluctuations in Profits
Multiples are only meaningful if the profit statistic used is representative of the
future. Profit fluctuations can have a substantial impact on multiples. Consider a
company that has a steady earnings trend but takes a oneoff restructuring charge:
2
The problems of EBITDA are explored in more detail in our publications EBITDA Multiples and Capital Intensity,
February 1999, and ...But it Looks Cheap on EV/EBITDA, September 1999, available at ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
OpFCF is not perfect but is
our preferred approach to
improving comparability
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
9 UBS Warburg
Table 5: Fluctuating Earnings and the PE Multiple
1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E
Earnings 10 12 14 3 17
Average price 200 220 260 ? ?
Historical priced PE multiple 20.0x 18.3x 18.6x ? ?
Source: UBS Warburg
Since earnings will recover in 2003, it is unlikely that the price will collapse in
2002 simply because of a temporary drop in earnings; investors will ‘look through’
2002 earnings and the earnings multiple for 2002 is therefore likely to be very high.
A naive comparison of this multiple with that of peers or the sector will not be
illuminating and is unlikely in itself to provide an opportunity to identify
mispricing.
The market appears to price cyclical earnings efficiently. A reallife example is
provided by General Motors, the US automobile manufacturer (see Chart 1 below).
Automobile manufacturers, with their high fixed costs, have notoriously cyclical
earnings. During the Volcker antiinflationary recession of 19801982 and again
during the Gulf War recession of 19901991, earnings fell and then turned negative
(largely because of restructuring provisions), but rose sharply as the economy
recovered.
The spot PE ratio for these periods is not very informative. GM’s PE ratio rose from
approximately 8x into the high 90s in late 1980 before earnings recovered, and
similarly rose into the mid 30s in 1994. For a cyclical company such as GM,
earnings at any given time are probably not a good proxy for future cash flow; a
normalised figure better represents the company’s earnings power.
Chart 1: General Motors Price/Earnings Multiple versus Earnings per Share
0x
20x
40x
60x
80x
100x
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Source: Primark Datastream
Note: shaded areas = US recessions
Investors recognise this. GM’s share price during the period mirrors the upward
secular trend in earnings rather than the peaks and valleys (Chart 2). On average,
after removing outliers, GM has traded at a normalised PE ratio averaging 9x.
Singlepoint multiples can
be misleading…
…notably for cyclicals, for
which cash flow can be
highly volatile
Investors value look
through cash flows
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
10 UBS Warburg
Investors have been willing to pay a certain multiple of a normalised, growing
earnings stream, but not much more on average because of the volatility of GM’s
realised earnings. The result has been a fairly steady climb in GM’s share price
through several business cycles, in line with the secular earnings trend.
Chart 2: General Motors
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Source: Primark Datastream
Dealing with Profit Fluctuations
A multiple is only meaningful if the profit on which it is based is indicative of future
profit potential. Where this is not the case, one should:
s ss s exclude exceptional items if using historical profits; or
s ss s use forecast rather than historical profits.
If current/subsequent years’ profits are still unrepresentative of the longer term,
then one should (a) use normalised profit or cash flow; or (b) consider using
‘forwardpriced’ multiples. We discuss forwardpriced multiples below.
4. Mispricing
If differences in multiples are not fully explained by differences in business quality,
accounting differences or profit fluctuations, then the stock may simply be
mispriced. It is the analyst’s task to identify mispricing; the analyst’s skill is in
distinguishing between differences arising from underlying fundamentals – and
therefore justified – and those arising from mispricing.
Choosing the Pricing Date
Which pricing date should one use when calculating a multiple? There are three
valid alternative prices that can be used in multiples – historical, current and
forward. In practice a fourth, partialforward approach is applied to enterprise
values, but is less than ideal.
Three pricing dates can be
used to calculate a multiple
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
11 UBS Warburg
Table 6: Alternative Pricing Bases for Multiples
Pricing basis Calculation Profit or cash flow used Use in valuation
Historical Average price or enterprise
value for a period
Historical profit for the
same period
Establishes a historical trading
range
Current Current price or enterprise
value
Any historical or forecast
profit
Investigation of current value – best
to use current year forecast profit
Forward Forward price or enterprise
value
Forecast profit for a
period related to the
forward price date
Investigation of current value –
superior to currentpriced multiple
for forecasts beyond one year
Partial
forward
Current market cap plus
forecast net debt (applies
to enterprise value only)
Forecast profit for a
period related to the
forward price date
Investigation of current value but the
partialforward price is inconsistent
and difficult to interpret
Source: UBS Warburg
s ss s Historicalpriced multiples: Comparison of historical price or enterprise value
with historical profits (cash flow, etc). ‘Historical’ price is generally the average
for year. Historicalpriced multiples are used to establish a trading range.
s ss s Currentpriced multiples: Comparison of current price or enterprise value with
historical or forecast profits – generally one year of historical and two years of
forecast profits. Currentpriced multiples are used to investigate current value.
Currentpriced multiples based upon currentyear earnings can be compared
with historical and forwardpriced multiples.
s ss s Forwardpriced multiples: Comparison of a forward price or enterprise value
with forecast profits. Forwardpriced multiples are used to investigate current
value. Effectively a forwardpriced multiple is a partial DCF valuation
expressed as a multiple. Forwardpriced multiples are particularly useful for
growth stocks, especially where the current profit or cash flow is negative, and
they can be compared over time, unlike currentpriced multiples. A forward
price is that price necessary for an investor to earn a satisfactory return on the
investment, ie a current price adjusted for the cost of carry:
Forward price @ t
1
= (Price at t
0
) × (1+cost of capital) – investor cash flow @ t
1
The concept behind the use of forward multiples is that companies are more
comparable when they have reached a mature phase and differences between
them are most likely to be the result of true differences in value rather than
where they sit on the lifecycle curve.
3
3
For a more detailed discussion, see our report Forwardpriced Multiples, September 1998, available at
ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
Forward multiples are
based on the concept that
companies are more
comparable at maturity
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
12 UBS Warburg
Chart 3: Multiple Comparisons and Lifecycles
Time
Growth rate
Multiples likely to be most
comparable where
companies are at similar
points in their lifecycles
Now Forward
Source: UBS Warburg
s ss s Partialforward multiples: In a partialforward approach, a current equity
value is combined with a forecast net debt figure in calculating enterprise value
to be compared with forecast profit and cash flow measures. Other components
of enterprise value, such as minorities and pension provisions, may be included
at either forecast or current value. While this approach does not have the
consistency of the pure forwardpriced method above, it does take account of at
least part of the future cash flow that affects value. For example, a company that
is forecast to have lower cash flow than another in the coming years would have
a higher net debt and therefore a higher partialforward EV. Poor cash flow is
effectively penalised by a higher multiple.
Note: Standard enterprise value multiples that appear in UBS Warburg
research reports are historically priced for historical periods and partially
forward priced for forecast periods.
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
13 UBS Warburg
Target Valuation Multiples
Multiples are primarily used for relative comparisons: for a stock relative to its
historical trend, relative to other companies, relative to its sector, and so forth. But
it is also possible to derive a ‘fair’ or target multiple.
What Is a Target Multiple?
A target multiple is the maximum multiple (of earnings, EBITDA, etc) that you
could pay, given certain underlying value drivers,
4
and receive a fair return on your
investment. ‘Fair return’ in this context means your required return on either equity
or capital, depending on which measure you are applying.
A fair multiple is that multiple paid which results in the investment having a net
present value of zero, ie, the reciprocal of the internal rate of return: 1/IRR.
Example With perfect foresight, what multiple could you have paid for Microsoft
in 1990 and still have received a fair return on your investment?
Ex post, we estimate that you could have paid an EV/sales multiple of 42x in 1990.
The calculation is simple: we assume a cost of equity of 14.5% based on the ten
year Treasury note rate at that time of 9.5% plus a 5% equity risk premium, and
discount back today’s price (adjusted for cumulative dividends) at that rate to 1990,
giving us a ‘fair’ price curve. That is, the ‘fair’ share price at the end of each year
equals the previous year’s share price × 1.145. We then divide sales for each period
by the ‘fair’ price at the end of that period to get a fair EV/sales multiple.
An investor with perfect foresight could have paid 42x sales, more than eight times
the price at that time, and received an average 14.5% return through today. (The
fortunate investor who bought in 1990 and held received a 44% compound return.)
Chart 4: Expost fair EV/Sales Multiple – Microsoft
0x
10x
20x
30x
40x
50x
J
u
n

9
0
J
u
n

9
1
J
u
n

9
2
J
u
n

9
3
J
u
n

9
4
J
u
n

9
5
J
u
n

9
6
J
u
n

9
7
J
u
n

9
8
J
u
n

9
9
J
u
n

0
0
J
u
n

0
1
J
u
n

0
2
EV / sales
Actual multiple Ex post 'fair' multiple
Source: UBS Warburg
4
Primarily return on capital (or equity), cost of capital (or equity), growth and duration of growth.
Section 2
A fair multiple results in a
net present value of zero
High multiples can be fair
multiples…
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
14 UBS Warburg
We do not need to know what the actual value drivers were in order to estimate a
retrospective fair multiple, as we can work backward from a known share price.
But it is precisely those value drivers – particularly Microsoft’s high return on
capital and high growth rate requiring minimal reinvestment – that drove the share
price. In 1990 Microsoft’s future success was neither apparent nor impounded in the
share price. But an investor who did see Microsoft’s potential and translated that
potential into value driver estimates would have been willing to pay a much higher
multiple.
These fair or target multiples can be calculated, based on underlying drivers of
return on capital, cost of capital and growth, using a discounted cash flow
equivalent approach. The Global Valuation Group’s ‘target multiple’ model can be
used to quickly obtain a range of target multiples for a different input values. This
model can be found at www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
Chart 5: UBS Warburg Global Valuation Group Target Multiple Calculator
Source: UBS Warburg
Singlestage Target Multiples
We have summarised key multiples and their underlying formulas below. A
derivation of the key formulas can be found in the Appendix.
A word of caution, however! These are based on limiting assumptions and should
be used with care. For example, margins, depreciation, taxation and rate of
investment are all assumed to remain constant, and growth is assumed to continue
into perpetuity. As a result, multiples obtained using these formulas are likely to
over or understate fair value.
These formulas are most useful in identifying which factors have the greatest
impact on a multiple for which you already have a value.
…if supported by the
underlying value drivers
The target multiple calculator
model, along with other models,
can be found at:
www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg
Exante fair multiples can
be derived from underlying
value drivers
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
15 UBS Warburg
Table 7: ‘Fair’ or Target Multiples
Multiple Basic formula
EV / sales
( )
( ) M x T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
EV / EBITDA
( )
( ) ( ) D  1 x T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
EV / EBIT
( )
( ) T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
EV / NOPLAT
( ) g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
EV / invested capital
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
−
−
ROIC x
g) (WACC x ROIC
g ROIC
or
g  WACC
g  ROIC
EV / capacity unit
( ) Unit
NOPLAT
x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
Unit
EV
Price to earnings
( ) g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
Price to book value
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
−
−
ROE x
g) (COE x ROE
g ROE
or
g  COE
g  ROE
PE to earnings growth
( )
g  COE x ROE x g x 100
g  ROE
Source: UBS Warburg
Note: ROIC and ROE = incremental posttax return on incremental total investment and equity, respectively; g = assumed
longterm growth rate; WACC = weighted average cost of capital; COE = cost of equity; T = effective tax rate; D =
depreciation and amortisation as a % of EBITDA; M = operating margin
Twostage Target Multiples
The assumption in the formulas above that valueadding growth will continue into
perpetuity is suspect. Competitive pressures and the size effect invariably check
growth rates. To cope with this, we can use a twostage model, constituting:
1. An initial growth period with a specified level of growth and return on equity
over a limited time horizon, followed by
2. A terminal phase in which no further value is added (that is, cash flows are
discounted at the cost of capital in perpetuity).
The twostage version of the PE target multiple formula is:
( )
n
n
n
n
COE) (1
g) (1
x
COE
1
COE) (1
g) (1
1 x
g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
E
P
+
+
+
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
+
+
−
More realism is introduced
by using a twostage
approach
Initial growth period Perpetuity, no additional value
added, discounted back to today
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
16 UBS Warburg
Twostage formulas are used in the Global Valuation Group (GVG) target multiple
model. The derivation of the twostage formula can be found in the Appendix.
Examples
s ss s Simple model, no value added: Suppose you are in investor with a required
return on equity (cost of equity) of 10%, contemplating investing in a company
with a return on equity of 10% and a growth rate of 5% into perpetuity. There is
no value added (that is, the company does not generate any surplus return above
your cost of equity), and therefore the rate of growth is irrelevant. This
investment is identical to a bond paying 10% in perpetuity, and the maximum
you would pay is (1/.10) or 10x the coupon. The fair PE multiple is 10x
regardless of the company’s growth rate.
s ss s Simple model, value added: Now consider a company with a return on equity
of 12% and a growth rate of 5% to perpetuity. Because the company generates a
return above your cost of equity, you will pay a higher PE ratio; the higher the
growth rate, the more value added and the higher the PE you will pay. The fair
PE ratio in this instance is:
12x
.05)  (.10 .12
.05  .12
E
P
s ss s Twostage model, value added in first stage: Now let’s assume that instead,
the company grows at 5% pa but for ten years only. Thereafter any cash flows
are discounted at the cost of equity of 10%. In this case the fair PE ratio is
10.6x 6.3 4.3
1.10
1.05
x
.10
1
1.10
1.05
1 x
.05)  .12(.10
.05  .12
E
P
10
10
10
10
+ +
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
−
which is between the 10x multiple of the simple novalue added case and the
12x multiple of the perpetuity valueadded case. This is the basic formula used
in the GVG target multiple model.
The first term is the value added in stage one, and the second term the value
added in the stage two. The second term is the unitary value of the terminal cash
flow (ie 1 × 1.05
10
) converted to a perpetuity (ie divided by 0.10) and then
discounted back to the present (divided by 1.10
10
).
The factor in brackets is the weight assigned to the first stage multiple. Its
corresponding weight is assigned to the perpetuity multiple; the sum of the two
weights equals one. The longer the growth period, the larger the first term; the
higher the growth rate, the larger the second term.
In effect, this model states a discounted cash flow calculation as a multiple.
s ss s Twostage model, value added both stages: The formula can be further
extended to allow for valueadding growth in the perpetuity or second stage.
This formula is stated as
( ) ( )
COE) (1
g) (1
x
g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
COE) (1
g) (1
1 x
g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
E
P
n
n
LT LT LT
LT LT
n
n
+
+
+
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
+
+
−
Fair value multiples should
be based on = 1/cost of
capital
Surplus return over cost of
capital generates value;
higher growth = more value
All things equal, finite
growth means a lower
multiple than in the
perpetualgrowth case
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
17 UBS Warburg
where ROE
LT
= the longterm return on equity, COE
LT
= the investor’s longterm
required return on equity and g
LT
= the longterm (steady state) growth rate.
Note that the discount factor in the final term is based on the firststage growth
rate and cost of equity. The numerator grosses up the current unitary cash flow
(that is, 1) to a terminal cash flow at the end of the initial growth period, using
the initialperiod growth rate. This is then multiplied by a cash flow exit
multiple (the PE formula using longterm value drivers) to give us the terminal
value at the end of the first stage. This terminal value is then discounted back to
today using the current cost of equity.
In other words, the two terms of the equation are equivalent to the explicit
forecast period and terminal value in a discounted cash flow calculation.
Applying the same assumptions as above, and assuming that return on equity
and cost of equity remain the same but growth falls to 2% pa, fair value PE is:
( )
12.5x 8.1 4.3
1.10
1.05
x
.02  .08 .09
.02  .09
1.10
1.05
1 x
.05)  .12(.10
.05  .12
E
P
10
10
10
10
+ +
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
−
Although the growth rate has fallen, even this lower growth adds value (12.5x –
10.6x = 1.9x earnings) because the return on equity is higher than the required
return.
What should be apparent is that different valuation approaches using similar
assumptions should give the same answer. A multiplebased valuation approach
is simply another way of formulating a discounted cash flow valuation, where the
same assumptions are used in both.
Assumptions Used in Target Multiple Formulas
The assumptions used in these formulas must be given careful thought to ensure
that they are consistent. The user should also be aware of the limitations of these
formulas.
s ss s Excess return on capital: This is the difference between the return on capital
(or equity) and the weighted average cost of capital (or cost of equity): cost of
capital + excess return = return on capital. For capitalintensive companies in
competitive industries that do not have strong franchises, use a figure close to
the cost of capital. The higher the quality of the business and the lower its
(tangible asset) capital intensity, the greater this premium should be.
s ss s Cost of capital: The standard weighted average cost of capital (or cost of
equity). This is the longterm required return of investors in the company and
should reflect estimates of longterm risk and longterm target level of gearing.
s ss s Growth rate: This is the annual compound growth forecast for the growth
period. This rate is assumed to apply to revenues, profit and cash flow during
this period since the model assumes that margins, depreciation, taxation and the
rate of investment all remain constant.
These formulas restate a
discounted cash flow
calculation as a multiple
Different valuation
approaches using similar
assumptions should give
the same answer
Higher quality businesses/
lower required capital
reinvestment result in a
higher surplus return
Growth drivers assumed to
be constant over the growth
period
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
18 UBS Warburg
s ss s Growth period: The estimated period over which the initial growth rate and the
excess return on capital are expected to persist. In the simpler version of the
model, it is assumed that at the end of the initial growth period the excess return
on capital changes to zero (in the GVG target multiple model this can be
modified in the twostage model for which value is added in both stages).
The Effect of Growth on Value
If asked which value driver has the greatest impact on multiples, analysts and
investors are likely to answer ‘growth’. This is broadly true, but the impact of
growth depends on its source and nature. There are several different sources of
growth and each will have a different effect on value creation and thus share prices.
The four primary sources of growth are:
s ss s Growth due to reinvestment at the cost of capital
s ss s Growth due to reinvestment at a premium to the cost of capital
s ss s Growth due to inflation
s ss s Growth due to efficiency gains
5
Reinvestment at the cost of capital Growth as a result of reinvestment at the
cost of capital does not add value, and neither the share price nor the PE ratio is
affected. In this case the PE formula reduces to:
COE
1
Reinvestment at a premium to the cost of capital Growth as a result of
reinvestment at an incremental return higher than the cost of capital will produce
valueadding growth. (Conversely, if the company reinvests at an incremental
return that is below the cost of capital, value is destroyed.) The formula is the same
as that for the singlestage PE target multiple discussed above:
( ) g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
Inflationary growth Growth resulting from a general increase in the price level
(which produces higher earnings) results in a lower multiple (although not
necessarily lower value, because of the higher nominal value of earnings). This is
because the replacement value of fixed assets and working capital rises, requiring
more investment to fund that increase in value.
( )
r r r
r r
g  COE x ) (ROE
g  ROE
∏ +
The subscript ‘r’ denotes real rather than nominal. П = inflation
Efficiency gains Productivity gains not requiring additional investment, such as
those resulting from cost control or higher market share, are a valuable source of
growth. Even small gains can produce large increases in the PE ratio.
5
For a more detailed discussion of the impact of growth on multiples, see our report Price Earnings Growth: A PEG for
Your Valuations, November 1997, available at ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
Growth is seen to have the
greatest impact on value…
…but this depends on the
source of growth
Reinvestment may or may
not add value depending on
excess return on capital
Inflationdriven growth
results in a lower multiple
Efficiency gains can be a
valuable source of growth
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
19 UBS Warburg
( )
g  COE x ROE
g  (g  ROE
eff
)
g = total forecast growth; geff = growth achieved from efficiency gains
Implicit in the above formula is the assumption that efficiency gains are achieved in
perpetuity. Because efficiency gains are likely to be eroded fairly quickly, a more
realistic multiple would lie between this multiple and the fair value PE ratio under
an assumption of normal reinvestment.
The chart shows sensitivity of multiples to growth rates for different growth types.
Chart 6: Effect of Different Sources of Growth on the PE Ratio
0x
10x
20x
30x
40x
50x
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Earnings growth rate
PE ratio
(1) Efficiency gains (2) ROE > COE (3) ROE = COE
(4) Inflation only (5) ROE < COE
Source: UBS Warburg
Note: Assumes perpetual growth arising from: (1) perpetual efficiency gains = the longterm growth rate; (2) and (5)
reinvestment at a 3% premium/discount to COE; (3) reinvestment at COE; (4) inflationary growth only
In reality efficiency gains
are likely to be eroded
quickly
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
20 UBS Warburg
Using Valuation Multiples
Relative Valuation – Observed Multiple versus Comparable
There are several ways one can apply multiples in valuation. The common approach
is to compare the current multiple to a historical multiple measured at a comparable
point in the business cycle and macroeconomic environment. An alternate approach
is to compare current multiples to those of other companies, a sector or a market,
and compare the current spread between them to a historical spread.
Relative Valuation – Observed Multiple versus Target Multiple
However, one can also compare a stock’s current multiple to a calculated fair or
target multiple. At different points in the business cycle the ‘fair’ and observed
multiples are likely to differ. In Chart 7 below, the current multiple cycles around
the fair multiple, with the multiple at any point in the cycle meanreverting over
time to the longterm fair multiple. A simple investment strategy would be to sell
when the current multiple is above the fair multiple and buy when it is below.
Chart 7: Relative Valuation – a Stylised Example
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
Time
PE multiple
Observed multiple
'Fair' multiple
Source: UBS Warburg
Linking Multiples and Value Drivers
A more common way to look at multiples is to plot them relative to various value
drivers. The most frequent comparisons are multiples versus growth in an
underlying statistic and multiples to return on capital.
s ss s Multiple to growth: This includes such comparisons as PE ratio to earnings
growth (the PEG ratio), EV/EBITDA to EBITDA growth and so forth. A low
multiple to growth indicates potential undervaluation.
But not all growth adds value, as we discuss above; this type of comparison
ignores profitability, which determines whether growth adds or subtracts value.
One should at the least consider longterm growth potential, the sustainability of
shortterm growth and cash flow reinvestment required to generate growth.
Section 3
Where is the current
multiple relative to a ‘fair’ or
target multiple?
Multiples are commonly
plotted relative to growth or
return on capital
Care must used in
comparing multiples to
growth rates, as not all
growth adds value
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
21 UBS Warburg
Chart 8: Multiple to Growth
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Earnings growth
PE
Zero growth still
gets a multiple
Source: UBS Warburg
A caveat This type of plot presumes a linear relationship between multiples and
growth. But a nonlinear relationship is more likely (see Chart 6 on page 19). This
suggests that these relationships may not be statistically significant and you may not
be able to confidently ‘eyeball’ stock values relative to the regression line. The
actual relationship will depend on other factors such as return on capital. You
should be careful not to apply a simple multipletogrowth relationship (see
Price/Earnings Growth, page 39) or you risk overvaluing highgrowth stocks and
undervaluing lowgrowth stocks. This is particularly true of lowgrowth companies
– note that zerogrowth companies will not trade at a zero multiple!
s ss s Multiple to return on capital: This includes such comparisons as P/BV
compared to ROE, EV/invested capital compared to return on capital, or,
alternatively, a comparison of the return on capital to the cost of capital.
Essentially this is a decomposition of a price to earnings or EV/net operating
profit multiple. The line on the chart usually represents a regression line or,
alternatively, it could be drawn to represent a certain multiple.
Chart 9: Multiple to Return on Capital
1x
2x
3x
4x
5x
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ROIC
EV/IC
Source: UBS Warburg
The linkage between
multiples and profitability
makes for more meaningful
comparisons
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
22 UBS Warburg
s ss s Asset multiple to excess return multiple: A variant of the above chart is to
compare an assetbased multiple (such as enterprise value/invested capital or
price/book) to return on capital or equity or to an ‘excess return multiple’. (In
the example, this is return on equity divided by cost of equity, scaled by growth.
See the formula for target price to book value on page 38, below.)
This approach provides a clear picture of over and undervaluation, since it
directly ties the market’s valuation of an asset to the excess return earned over
and above the cost of that asset, in a linear fashion. All key value drivers are
shown and related to market value in a single chart.
Chart 10: Asset Multiple to Excess Return Multiple
10
5

5
10
15
5 0 5 10 15
(ROEg) / (COEg)
Price / book value
Expensive
Cheap
Source: UBS Warburg
s ss s Multiple to interest rate: A less common approach is to compare a yield
measure with interest rates or the cost of capital. The earnings yield ratio is the
most commonly used of this type of comparison. Another approach is to
compare a multiple to the reciprocal of the cost of capital, eg PE:(1/cost of
equity) or EV/NOPLAT:(1/WACC).
Choosing the Right Multiple
This is a matter of individual judgement and common sense. Multiples used should
be relevant and useful and result in the least overlap. Economy of effort is also
important: there is an inevitable tradeoff between cost/time involved in adjusting
multiples and improved comparability. We recommend that multiples be tested for
statistical significance, using at least one business cycle of timeseries data.
For example, the UBS Warburg European telecom team favours using EV to
operating free cash flow (see page 32 and charts below) over EV/EBITDA when
looking at multiples versus growth because they feel that the relationship over time
has been more significant and is more useful in predicting future performance.
Multiples should be useful,
relevant and economical
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
23 UBS Warburg
Chart 11: European Telecom Sector – ‘babycoms’ – EV/EBITDA Chart 12: European Telecom Sector – ‘babycoms’ – EV/OpFCF
R
2
= 0.069
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
EBITDA CAGR 01E04E
EV / EBITDA R
2
= 0.7235
0x
25x
50x
75x
100x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%
OpFCF CAGR 01E04E
EV / OpFCF
Source: UBS Warburg Source: UBS Warburg
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
24 UBS Warburg
Enterprise Value Multiples
What Is Enterprise Value?
s ss s Enterprise value or EV is the cost of buying the right to the whole of an
enterprise's core cash flow.
s ss s It is equal to the estimated value of the operations of an enterprise as represented
by the value of the various claims on cash flow and profit.
s ss s EV equals market capitalisation plus seasonally adjusted net debt (see page 26),
pension provisions, the value of minorities and other provisions deemed debt.
Chart 13: Enterprise Value Components
Source: UBS Warburg
Enterprise value comes in three flavours: total, operating and core EV, as described
below. UBS Warburg valuation measures are based on core enterprise value.
Table 8: Description of the Various Types of Enterprise Value
Type Description
Total The value of all the activities of the business. Includes the value of investments and associates,
and noncore assets
less Estimated market value of nonoperating assets (investment and usually associates)
= Operating The value of all operating activities. Total enterprise value less nonoperating assets at market
value
less Noncore assets (nonoperating assets and operating assets not a core activity of the business)
= Core Total enterprise value less the value of noncore assets – those operations not regarded as part of
core activities and which are desirable to exclude from the calculation of valuation multiples
Noncore assets include nonoperating assets but may also include other trading operations
which are very different in nature to the core activities of the enterprise
The exclusion of noncore assets makes the calculation of enterprise value more subjective
(in most cases there is no marketdetermined value for the noncore assets) but it does
result in more meaningful and comparable valuation multiples
Source: UBS Warburg
Section 4
The right to an enterprise's
cash flow or the value of
claims on that cash flow
Three types of EV: total,
operating and core
Market
capitalisation
Minority
interests
Other claims Net debt
Debtdeemed
provisions
Sum of the values of claims on enterprise profit or cash flow equals ...
Total enterprise
value
Core enterprise
value
Noncore assets
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
25 UBS Warburg
Chart 14: Enterprise Value Typology
Source: UBS Warburg
Why Use Enterprise Value Multiples?
As summarised in Table 2 above, there are a number of reasons for using enterprise
rather than equity multiples.
s ss s Comprehensiveness: Enterprise value measures the business as a whole. As a
result, enterprise multiples are more comprehensive than equity multiples, which
focus only on the value of the equityholders’ claims.
s ss s Less affected by capital structure: EV multiples are less affected by capital
structure differences, as they measure the unlevered value of an enterprise.
— In the table below (based on actual figures), Company B trades at a price
earnings ratio above that of Company A but in line with the sector average.
However, the PE ratio is significantly distorted by B’s high net cash balance,
which accounts for almost half of market capitalisation. Both Company A
and the sector as a whole, by contrast, are levered approximately 30%.
— Stripping out the excess cash balance, B trades at low relative multiple of
EBITDA to ‘core’ EV. B’s core business is valued at a significant discount
to those of its peers. This discount may be justified, but its existence is
significant. The analyst should investigate and understand the discrepancy.
Table 9: Benefits of Using Enterprise Value – Leverage
Sector Company A Company B
PE 14.3 10.9 14.6
EV/EBITDA 8.8 8.1 3.0
Net cash as % of market capitalisation   46%
Net debt as % of total EV 28% 31% 
Source: UBS Warburg
s ss s Less affected by accounting differences: EV multiples allow for the use of
statistics, such as EBITDA, that are less affected by accounting differences.
Enterprise value multiples
more comparable than
equity multiples
Non
operating
assets
Operating
assets
(core and
noncore)
Core assets Core assets
Noncore
operating
assets
Noncore
operating
assets
Core assets
Non
operating
assets
CORE EV OPERATING EV TOTAL EV
Noncore assets
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
26 UBS Warburg
s ss s Less distorted by noncore assets: EV multiples allow the exclusion of non
core assets, whereas the statistics used in equity multiples incorporate the net
assets and earnings attributable to noncore assets.
As a result, enterprise value multiples are more comparable among companies than
equity multiples.
Potential Problems in Calculating EV
A number of potential problems arise in the calculation of enterprise value.
6
s ss s Is enterprise value complete?
s ss s Is enterprise value measured at market values?
s ss s Does net debt reflect seasonal variations and changes in group composition?
s ss s Have nonoperating and noncore assets been treated correctly?
1. Completeness
Enterprise value should include all claims on the company, not just market
capitalisation and net debt. This includes claims relating to deemed debt (provisions
having the characteristics of interestbearing debt, such as unfunded pension
liabilities), options, preferred shareholdings and minority interests.
2. Use of Market Values
Enterprise value should include the value of claims at market, not book values. Debt
should be adjusted to reflect market value. Minority shares in a subsidiary should be
quoted at market value; otherwise a valuation multiple should be applied to
earnings or net assets. Quoted options should be valued at market and, where
unquoted, at fair value ideally, or as a minimum at intrinsic value.
3. Seasonality
EV should reflect an average level of debt which is adjusted to reflect seasonal
variations and for changes in the composition of the group. This is important, as net
debt is usually the largest component of EV after market capitalisation, and using
the stated balance sheet amount can result in large errors.
4. Treatment of Nonoperating and Noncore Assets
Nonoperating assets are investments and other activities that do not form part of
the firm’s trading (daytoday business) operations. Noncore assets include non
operating and any other trading activities that are so different in nature that failure
to exclude them from core EV would seriously distort multiples. Income produced
by noncore assets is not part of core EBIT.
Nonoperating assets typically include net cash balances, other investments and,
usually, associates. Nonoperating associates should be deducted from total
6
For a more detailed discussion of issues involved in calculating enterprise value, see our report Valuation and
Accounting Briefing No. 1: Enterprise Value, December 1998 (reprinted November 2000), available at
ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
EV calculations have pitfalls
for the unwary
EV should include all claims
on the company, not just
market cap and net debt
EV should reflect an
average level of net debt
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
27 UBS Warburg
enterprise value at market value (if necessary, estimated by applying a group
earnings multiple to the group’s share of associate income).
But associates may straddle the operating/nonoperating line. Where associates are
considered part of operating activities, this can lead to problems with multiples:
s ss s If the postinterest profit of the associate is included in EBIT then the result is a
mixed multiple, with both pre and postinterest earnings combined in the
denominator.
s ss s But if the associate profit included in EBIT is preinterest – this is not often
available in accounts – then the parent share of associate net debt should be
included in the parent’s enterprise value.
s ss s In calculating EBITDA multiples, the group’s share of associate depreciation
and amortisation must be added back to EBITDA.
It is generally best to treat associates as nonoperating assets (effectively
investments) in calculating operating and core enterprise value. This means
excluding the associate share of profit from core and operating EBIT (thus the
respective multiples are core EV/core EBIT and operating EV/operating EBIT).
But if total EV is used, then associate profit must be included in EBIT when
calculating EV/EBIT. Ideally, the parent share of associate preinterest operating
profit should be included in total EBIT. However, this figure is generally not
available outside the UK, so a practical alternative is to use the parent share of pre
tax profit grossed up for estimated tax. We look at an example below.
Table 10: Associates Example – Nestlé
Profit & Loss extract FY 00 Notes
Operating income
Net interest
Nonoperating income/(expense)
Profit before tax
Taxation @ 33%
Equity in net earnings of associates
Goodwill amortisation
Net income before minorities
Minorities
Net income
9,600
(746)
(99)
8,755
(2,761)
395
(414)
5,975
(212)
5,763
EBIT in this example does not equal operating income
Total EBIT must include share of pretax profit of
associates
9,600 + 395/(10.33) = 10,190
Nonoperating expenses must be examined: are they
truly exceptional?
Source: UBS Warburg
Noncore assets include both nonoperating assets plus any trading operations
deemed to be noncore (see chart on page 25.) Nonoperating assets are a subset of
noncore assets. Typically there are few trading operations that would be treated as
noncore; these might be operations to be discontinued or divested.
If operating associates’
contributions are included,
adjustments may be needed
It is generally best to treat
associates as non
operating (excluded)
assets…
…but include associate
profit if using total (not
core) EV
Noncore operating assets
tend to be few, typically
operations to be divested or
discontinued
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
28 UBS Warburg
Enterprise Value Multiples
There are many different enterprise value multiples that can be calculated,
depending on the circumstances. What is most important is that the denominator
represent a flow to all claimants on enterprise cash flow.
Adjustments should be made to both enterprise value and the denominator where
necessary (and possible) to ensure that apples are being compared with apples.
EV/Sales
Definition: Core EV/sales.
Formula:
( )
( ) M x T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
Sales
EV
When to use it
s ss s EV/sales is a crude measure, but least susceptible to accounting differences; it is
equivalent to its equity counterpart, price to sales, where a company has no debt.
s ss s EV/sales is useful when accounting differences among comparables are extreme,
or where profit or cash flow figures are unrepresentative or negative. It is
frequently used for unprofitable or cyclical firms where there are problems in
measuring profit or cash flow further down the P&L. As a proxy for cash flow,
sales has the virtue of being stable and relatively unaffected by accounting
policies.
s ss s EV/sales is also useful in identifying restructuring potential. Net margin is a key
driver of this measure; low profitability (low net margin) would result in a low
value for a given level of sales.
s ss s Be careful that the sales figure is representative; generally EV/sales should not
be used for companies with variable, periodic sales, such as property developers.
Caveats There are three caveats in using this multiple:
s ss s Sales volatility: EV/sales is frequently applied to technology firms, which are
likely to have negative cash flow and/or earnings while they are in their initial
growth phase. But these companies frequently have highly volatile sales as well.
s ss s Revenue recognition policies: Sales are not unaffected by accounting policies.
Sales can be substantially affected by different interpretations of accounting
standards in such areas as:
— Use of gross versus net revenue in recording sales on agency transactions
— Treatment of sales where a customer has the right of return
— Longterm contracts accounted for under percentage of completion or
completed contract methods
The multiple denominator
must represent a flow to all
claimants
Crude but least susceptible
to accounting differences
Useful in identifying
restructuring potential
Sales can be affected by
accounting policies
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
29 UBS Warburg
Care must be taken in ensuring that, when making comparisons using this
multiple, sales are determined on a consistent basis.
s ss s Margin differences. Sales multiples cannot be directly compared across
businesses where operating margins differ. Rough comparability can be obtain
by adjusting the sales multiple to
margin operating company Benchmark
multiple) sales company (target multiple) sales company (Benchmark x
where the target company is the one being valued.
EV/EBITDA
Definition: Core EV/earnings before associates, interest, tax, depreciation,
amortisation, noncash changes in provisions and before reported exceptional items.
Formula:
( )
( ) ( ) D  1 x T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBITDA
EV
When to use it
s ss s EBITDA is a proxy for operating cash flow, and EV/EBITDA – probably the
most popular EV multiple – is a price to cash flow multiple. Its popularity stems
from the fact that it is unaffected by differences in depreciation policy and
appears unaffected by differences in capital structure.
s ss s However, while EBITDA is closer to cash flow than other profit measures it is
not a true cash flow, as it does not incorporate either asset depreciation or capital
expenditure. Also, EBITDA is a pretax measure, whereas management can
potentially add value through skilled tax management.
s ss s EV/EBITDA is affected by a firm’s level of capital intensity (measured as
depreciation as a percentage of EBITDA). All things being equal, higher capital
intensity results in a lower EV/EBITDA multiple.
7
7
For further discussion, see our report Valuation and Accounting Briefing No. 3: EBITDA Multiples and Capital Intensity,
February 1999, available at ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
Sales multiples cannot be
compared where operating
margins differ
EBITDA does not include
the cost of replacing capital
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
30 UBS Warburg
Chart 15: Theoretical Relationship between EV/EBITDA and Capital Intensity
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Capital intensity
EV/EBITDA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Different medium
term growth rates
Source: UBS Warburg
Note: These relationships were derived from the GVG target multiple model using an ROIC of 11.5%, a WACC of 7.5%, a
10year mediumterm growth period and a tax rate of 31%.
s ss s EV/EBITDA is most useful in comparing companies with a selected peer group
that has a comparable level of capital intensity; comparisons of a stock with a
sector average can also be useful as long as there is not a large variation in
capital intensity within the sector.
s ss s On the other hand, comparisons of a stock with the market, comparisons across
sectors and comparisons of a sector with the market are unlikely to be
meaningful.
s ss s In the charts below, we contrast the European retail and oil sectors. The more
diverse retail sector displays a wide range of capital intensities, whereas the oil
sector displays a greater degree of homogeneity, in part reflecting the truly
global nature of the oil and gas business.
Chart 16: European Retail Sector Chart 17: European Oil Sector
0x
3x
6x
9x
12x
15x
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Capital intensity
EV/EBITDA
0x
3x
6x
9x
12x
15x
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Capital intensity
EV/EBITDA
Source: UBS Warburg Source: UBS Warburg
s ss s EV/EBITDA multiples could be used for relative valuation of oil companies, but
without adjustment would be less meaningful for the retail sector. EV/operating
free cash flow may be a more useful valuation multiple in this case (see page
32).
Use with comparables
having similar levels of
capital intensity
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
31 UBS Warburg
s ss s EV/EBITDA cannot be used when current cash flow is negative. Use normalised
EBITDA, or a forward multiple, instead.
EV/EBIT
Definition: Core EV/core earnings before goodwill amortisation (but after
amortisation of other intangibles), associates, interest and taxes. It is stated pre
reported exceptional or extraordinary items.
Alternatively, this multiple may be defined as total EV/total EBIT (instead of core
EV/core EBIT).
Formula:
( )
( ) T  1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBIT
EV
When to use it
s ss s EBIT is a postgoodwill figure. However, we believe that goodwill amortisation
is not an economic charge and should properly be added back to operating
profit.
s ss s EBIT is a better measure of ‘free’ (postmaintenance capital spending) cash flow
than EBITDA, and is more comparable where capital intensities differ.
s ss s EBIT is, however, affected by accounting policy differences for depreciation.
EV/EBIT is most useful where there are relatively small differences in
accounting treatment of depreciation among comparables.
s ss s Alternatively, you can normalise depreciation. The example below demonstrates
how a simple depreciation adjustment would work.
Table 11: Adjusting EBIT for Differing Depreciation Policies
Gross fi xed assets 300 Unadjusted posttax EBIT 32
Depreciable life 10 Add back: excess depreciation 10
Actual depreciation (no salvage) 30 Adjusted posttax EBIT 42
Normal depreciable life 15
Normalised depreciation 20
Excess depreciation 10
Source: UBS Warburg
Note: We have not adjusted net profit for the ‘additional’ tax that theoretically would be paid as a result of lower
depreciation expense. First, depreciation for tax purposes is typically calculated separately from book depreciation.
Second, tax is a real expense that cannot be affected by analytical adjustments.
s ss s Note that the goodwill adjustment does not apply to financial statements
reported under US GAAP. Recentlypublished Financial Accounting Statement
142, Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets, stipulates that effective 1 January
2002 (for calendar year companies), goodwill is no longer to be amortised.
8
8
For a detailed discussion of goodwill and its treatment in equity valuation, as well as recent developments in accounting
for goodwill under US GAAP, see our report Equity Analysis InsideOut No. 3: Goodwill in Equity Analysis, July 2001,
available at ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
Most useful where
comparables’ depreciation
policies are similar
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
32 UBS Warburg
EV/NOPLAT
Definition: Core EV/normal operating profit less adjusted tax.
NOPLAT is posttax EBIT. However, as commonly used, NOPLAT (or NOPAT)
refers to EBI after adjustments to accounting profit to better reflect economic profit.
Some adjustments include adding back goodwill amortisation, LIFO reserve
increase, implied interest expense on operating leases, increases in bad debt and
capitalised R&D, and the adjustment of reported tax to a cash basis.
9
Formula:
( ) g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
NOPLAT
EV
When to use it
s ss s NOPLAT is a more sophisticated and complete form of EBIT that allows for
differences in tax efficiency and effective tax rates. If the company were all
equityfinanced, NOPLAT would equal earnings.
s ss s However, the calculation of NOPLAT introduces a measure of subjectivity. This
makes it harder to compare to other parties’ calculations of NOPLAT.
s ss s The NOPLAT multiple is effectively a degeared PE and is a perfectly reasonable
statistic to use provided it is measured on a consistent basis across companies.
EV/NOPLAT can be used as a substitute for EV/EBIT.
EV/OpFCF
Definition: Core EV/operating free cash flow (OpFCF). ROIC is calculated using
OpFCF in the numerator.
OpFCF is core EBITDA less charges for capital usage and for the effect of inflation
on working capital needs. OpFCF should be measured before goodwill
amortisation. A calculation of operating free cash flow is shown below.
Table 12: Components of Operating Free Cash Flow
Item Note
Earnings before interest and taxes Before noncore earnings (associates, investments and other)
Plus: depreciation Per cash flow statement
Less: maintenance capital spending Estimated annual reinvestment requirement
Less/plus: net working capital inflation Estimated annual reinvestment requirement (working capital is
current cost, so this would normally equal expected inflation in
working capital items). Working capital is assumed to be at an
appropriate level relative to sales; adjustment may be needed
Equals: operating free cash flow
Source: UBS Warburg
Formula:
( )
) T 1 ( x −
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
OpFCF
EV
9
Stewart, G.B. III, Quest for Value, Harper Collins (1991).
NOPLAT is often stated
after adjustments to better
reflect economic profit
EV/NOPLAT is equivalent to
a degeared PE
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
33 UBS Warburg
When to use it
s ss s EV/OpFCF is a price to cash flow measure similar to EV/EBIT. OpFCF is not a
true cash flow, however, as it does not include actual capital expenditure or
change in working capital; it is a normalised EBIT or a smoothed cash flow.
s ss s OpFCF is more comparable than EBITDA and less susceptible to accounting
distortions than EBIT, and is therefore a more suitable basis for valuation
multiples. OpFCF does, however, add another layer of subjectivity via the
calculation of maintenance capital spending and net working capital inflation.
s ss s EV/OpFCF is preferable to EV/EBITDA for comparing companies within a
sector, or for comparing companies across sectors or markets where companies
have widely varying degrees of capital intensity.
s ss s Operating free cash flow is a smoothed measure of free cash flow to the firm, for
which historical figures can be highly volatile. Because of this, multiples using
OpFCF can be easier to interpret than those using free cash flow.
s ss s This multiple cannot be used when current cash flow is negative. Use
normalised OpFCF or a forwardpriced multiple instead.
EV/Enterprise Free Cash Flow
Definition: Core EV/normalised aftertax core enterprise free cash flow (or FCF,
also known as free cash flow to the firm). ROIC is calculated using aftertax FCF in
the numerator.
Formula:
( ) g  WACC
1
=
FCF
EV
Enterprise Free Cash Flow
Enterprise free cash flow is the cash available to the providers of finance. FCF =
debt cash flow + equity cash flow. It may be used:
s ss s To pay interest or repay debt
s ss s To build cash balances or other investments
s ss s To pay dividends or buy back shares
Free cash flow must be after tax and all investment expenditure needed to support
the future cash flow forecast.
OpFCF is a suitable basis
for valuation than either
EBITDA or EBIT
Multiples using OpFCF
easier to interpret than
those using free cash flow
FCF is the cash available to
all providers of finance
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
34 UBS Warburg
Table 13: Enterprise Free Cash Flow Calculation
EBIT (normal operating profit) X
Tax on normal operating profit (X)

NOPLAT (normal operating profit less adjusted tax) X
Depreciation and amortisation X

Gross cash flow X
Capital expenditure (X)
Change in working capital (X)/ X
Noncash changes in operating provisions (X)/ X

Enterprise free cash flow X
Source: UBS Warburg
FCF Should Include Effective Cash Flows
Errors can arise if FCF only reflects strict cash movements. Some transactions have
operating and financing effects but no actual cash movement; typically this would
involve equal and offsetting effective operating and financing flows. The operating
effect of a noncash transaction should be included in FCF even though there is no
actual cash movement. Some examples might include
s ss s Share option schemes
s ss s Capital (finance) leases
s ss s Unfunded pensions
s ss s Investment where the consideration is in securities
Thus, for example, the grant of share options to employees is a noncash
transaction. However, such a grant can be considered as two distinct cash flows:
s ss s An operating cash outflow (representing employee compensation)
s ss s A financing cash inflow (representing its reinvestment into share options)
While the net cash flow is zero, the transaction has a valuation impact, since only
the operating cash flow is included in the valuation.
When to use it
s ss s FCF is similar to OpFCF but is calculated using actual working capital changes,
capital spending and other noncash adjustments.
s ss s Use of historic FCF can be problematic, because fluctuations in cash flow items
can cause it to be highly volatile, making EV/FCF a less useful multiple.
s ss s One underappreciated benefit of accounting is that the revenue/cost matching
principle results in an allocation of costs and benefits, however imperfectly. This
means that profit may be a better predictor of future cash flow than any single
cash flow. Since cash flow may be more ‘lumpy’ (if, for example, a company
has made a substantial investment, which will depress current cash flow), the
user must be careful that it is representative or otherwise ‘normal’.
Some transactions result in
effective cash flows that
should be included in FCF
Historical FCF can be
problematic in valuation
because of its volatility
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
35 UBS Warburg
s ss s Cash flow is better used – in fact is essential – in a discounted cash flow
valuation because multiperiod cash flow is used instead of a point estimate. We
prefer the use of a smoothed cash flow figure such as OpFCF, provided the
assumptions underlying the calculation are sensible.
EV/Invested Capital
Definition: core EV/invested capital.
Invested capital, measured from the asset side of the balance sheet, is the sum of net
tangible and intangible assets and net working capital. Invested capital excludes
noncore investments and other assets, and to ensure comparability these must also
be excluded from enterprise value.
Alternative calculations are possible:
s ss s Total capital employed: Total capital employed is invested capital plus
investments and associates. Return on total capital employed differs from return
on invested capital in that the numerator for return on total capital employed
includes income from noncore operating investments and other assets. To
ensure comparability, enterprise value must also include the value of these
assets.
s ss s Adjusted capital employed: This is total capital employed adjusted to bring
book capital closer to economic capital. These adjustments (to assets; from
Stern, Stewart) include adding back accumulated goodwill amortisation, LIFO
reserve and cumulative writeoffs of special items, among others.
s ss s Replacement capital employed: Capital employed at replacement value,
intended to better approximate the cost of replacing the capital base at current
prices and therefore the return on assets at market value. This can be roughly
approximated by adding back accumulated depreciation in addition to making
the other adjustments noted above.
Formula:
g  WACC
g  ROIC
or ROIC x
g)  (WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
capital Invested
EV
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
When to use it
s ss s The enterprise equivalent of price to book value, EV/invested capital is equal to
EV/NOPLAT × ROIC (whereas price to book is equal to PE × ROE).
s ss s Note that invested capital measures only operating assets whereas net book
value includes the value of the firm’s cash holdings. Net income includes return
on cash, but NOPLAT does not. NOPLAT is in this respect a better indication of
core profitability than net income.
s ss s This is a useful measure for sectors where tangible assets are key. Because of its
close linkage to return on capital, it is useful to view this measure together with
return on capital.
Items included in EV and
capital must be consistent
Invested capital, unlike
book value, excludes non
operating cash
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
36 UBS Warburg
s ss s Items included in invested capital or total capital employed must be consistent
with items included in enterprise value.
EV/Capacity Measure
Definition: Core EV/units of capacity (such as tonnes of cement capacity) or
another revenuegenerating unit (such as subscribers).
Formula:
( ) Unit
NOPLAT
x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
Unit
EV
When to use it
s ss s Enterprise value multiples are often used to compare the implied value of
productive assets (eg tonnes of cement capacity, fixed telephone lines) to enable
comparison across firms operating within the same industry.
s ss s This value can be compared to the cost of replacing the asset on a gross basis or
after factoring in depreciation to adjust for the remaining life of the asset in use.
s ss s A common variant is to look at the implied market value of each revenue
generating unit such as subscribers. Thus the value per, say, customer that the
market ascribes to the firm can then be compared to the amount of revenue or
profit the customer generates.
s ss s These measures tell us nothing about the relative underlying profitability of the
assets nor do they give any other clues about the drivers behind differences in
value. They do not tell us why the (unit of capacity, customer, etc) is valued as it
is, nor what the appropriate value should be.
s ss s Ultimately, the market value of a firm is determined not by the amount of
capacity it has but by the economic value it creates. There may be wide relative
differences in EV per widget between companies – and these may be deserved.
s ss s The way to gauge these differences is to estimate a fair EV per unit multiple by
determining the sustainable NOPLAT per unit.
s ss s Consider, for example, a cement firm with a return on capital of 12% growing at
3% pa. It if earns US$10 per tonne in operating profit than an investor with a
required return on capital of 10% will be willing to pay up to US$107 per tonne
of capacity:
tonne per US$107 US$10 x 10.7 US$10 x
.03)  .12(.10
.03  .12
=
Tonne
EV
EV multiples can be used to
compare crossborder
implied market values of
revenuegenerating units
Differences in perunit
profitability will determine
differences in valuation
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
37 UBS Warburg
Equity Multiples
What Are Equity Multiples?
An equity multiple, as the name suggests, is the expression of the market value of
equityholders’ stake in an enterprise, relative to a key statistic relating to that value.
As we have noted earlier, the statistic must relate to the value being measured.
Since shareholders are subordinate to all other claimants of the cash flow and assets
of a business, any statistic used in an equity multiple must be one that represents
residual profit, cash flow, assets or another residual measure. All senior claims must
have been deducted first.
Equity Multiples
Price/Earnings
Definition: Current market capitalisation/net income attributable to common
shareholders or alternatively, price per share/attributable earnings per share.
Formula:
( ) g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
=
income Net
cap Market
When to use it
s ss s The PE ratio is the most commonly used equity multiple (it was first introduced
in the 1930s). Data availability is one reason why: earnings, both historical and
forecast, are easily available.
s ss s Earnings are, however, subject to different accounting policies. We recommend
using adjusted earnings in calculating the ratio; UBS Warburg defines ‘adjusted’
earnings as earnings before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation.
s ss s Price to earnings multiples cannot be used when earnings are negative. As an
alternative, use normalised earnings or calculate a forwardpriced multiple (see
page 10).
s ss s Use this multiple when earnings are representative of future earnings and the
trend in those earnings. For example, if there are significant writeoffs in a year,
earnings are unlikely to be representative. Use preexceptional or pre
extraordinary earnings instead.
s ss s As far as possible, use for comparisons of companies, sectors and markets that
have similar accounting policies. Alternatives are to adjust earnings to a
common basis across sectors and markets; or to use earnings before the most
material distorting items such as depreciation and goodwill amortisation.
s ss s Different capital structures will affect multiples because of the gearing effect on
earnings; two companies with identical operating profit may have widely
different earnings. One alternative approach is to use NOPLAT or taxadjusted
earnings before interest.
Section 5
Equity multiples reflect
residual claims
Use earnings before
exceptional items and
goodwill amortisation
Gearing will affect the PE
multiple
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
38 UBS Warburg
s ss s An important weakness of the PE ratio is that it does not explicitly take into
account balance sheet risk (although it is implicitly incorporated into the
underlying cost of equity
10
).
s ss s Furthermore, the PE ratio does not explicitly take into account the amount of
investment required to support future growth. You can, however, take this into
account indirectly (see The Effect of Growth on Value, page 18).
Price/Cash Earnings
Definition: Market capitalisation/net income attributable to common shareholders
plus depreciation, amortisation and changes in noncash provisions.
Formula:
( ) gs Cashearnin
Earnings
x
g  COE x ROE
g  ROE
=
earnings Cash
cap Market
When to use it
s ss s Cash earnings are usually defined as simply net profit plus depreciation &
amortisation. This is a rough and frequently misleading measure of cash flow, as
it ignores the many other factors that affect cash flow, including changes in net
debt, changes in working capital and so forth.
s ss s This problem is magnified when using prospective cash earnings, because of the
additional complications involved in forecasting changes in net debt; the
estimated capital structure can have a large impact on forecast earnings.
Furthermore, historical cash flow can be a very volatile.
s ss s As a result, price to cash earnings is difficult to use as a base valuation measure.
s ss s Price to cash earnings should be used as a supplement to other measures,
particularly in conjunction with multiples that are unadjusted for accounting
differences between comparables, where those differences are material.
Price/Book Value
Definition: Market capitalisation/book value (alternatively price per share/book
value per share).
Formula:
g  COE
g  ROE
or ROE x
g)  (COE x ROE
g  ROE
=
value Book
cap Market
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
When to use it
s ss s Price to book value is a useful measure where tangible assets are the source of
value generation. Because of its close linkage to return on equity (price to book
is PE multiplied by ROE), it is useful to view price to book value together with
ROE.
10
The cost of equity is related to the degree of financial leverage through the equity beta:
( ) βdebt βasset
E
D
βasset βequity − +
Best used as a supplement
to other measures
A useful measure where
tangible assets are key
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
39 UBS Warburg
s ss s Using this measure with industrial companies requires care because net assets
are based on historical cost book value, an unreliable indicator of economic
value.
s ss s Book values are not directly comparable where accounting policies cause them
to deviate markedly from economic substance, nor are they directly comparable
among companies with differing accounting policies. For example, book value
would not be comparable between a company that revalues its assets (permitted
under international accounting standards) and one that does not (revaluation is
not permitted under US GAAP).
s ss s Ideally, book value should be adjusted for these differences. Some adjustments
that might be made include:
— Stripping out revaluation surpluses on the basis that it is more practical than
attempting to revalue all comparables
— Restoring excess depreciation (or deducting inadequate depreciation)
— Restoring accumulated goodwill amortisation and writtenoff goodwill
— Restoring the LIFO reserve, etc
s ss s This ratio is most widely used in valuing financials, especially banks, which
squeeze a small spread from a large base of assets (loans) and multiply that
spread by utilising high levels of leverage (deposits). Return on equity is
therefore an important criteria in valuing bank stocks.
Price/Earnings Growth
Definition: The ‘PEG’ ratio is the prospective PE divided by average forecast
earnings growth. It is most widely used to value growth companies where it is
assumed that growth opportunities arise from reinvesting at a premium rate of
return or from efficiency gains.
11
Formula:
( )
g  COE x ROE x g x 100
g  ROE
=
Growth
PE
When to use it
The PEG is based on the assumption that a PE ratio is positively linearly correlated
to the expected growth rate in earnings, ie PEG is constant. Unfortunately, however,
there is no linear relationship between the PE ratio and earnings growth.
Nevertheless, PEGs can be used for relative valuation in certain circumstances:
s ss s Notably, at higher rates of growth PEG ratios are stable and less sensitive to
changes in growth than PE ratios (see chart below), which makes PEG ratios
more suitable for valuing highgrowth companies – for which they are typically
11
For a more detailed discussion of PEG ratios, see our report Price Earnings Growth: A PEG for Your Valuations,
November 1997.
Book value should be
adjusted to remove
accounting distortions
PEGs most suitable for
valuing highgrowth
companies…
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
40 UBS Warburg
used. The range of growth rates for which PEG valuations are suitable is also
larger than that for PE ratios.
Chart 18: Variation of PEG with Growth and ROE
0
2
4
6
8
10
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Earnings growth
PEG ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PE ratio
PEG ROE=10% (lhs)
PEG ROE=20% (lhs)
PEG ROE=30% (lhs)
PE ROE=30% (rhs)
Source: UBS Warburg
Note: Based on a COE of 12%
s ss s This particularly applies to companies within sectors, making it more suitable
for intrasector PEG ratios. It is less suitable for comparisons of companies with
sectors, companies with markets, sectors with markets and across sectors.
s ss s PEG ratios are most useful for comparisons of companies with valueadding
growth as opposed to inflationary growth.
s ss s Relative PEG valuations are best suited to companies with returns and growth
rates close to the market.
s ss s As growth rates decline, variation in PEG ratios increases, making them less
useful. (For PE ratios, the opposite is true; variation in the PE rises with the
growth rate.)
One can also calculate enterprise value multiples to enterprise earnings growth,
although this is uncommon.
Dividend Yield
Definition: Forecast dividend/current market capitalisation.
s ss s Dividends are the ultimate cash flow that the investor receives. The dividend
yield is the market’s rate of capitalisation of cash paid out to investors, and can
be compared to the market’s required yield to determine how a stock should
be priced.
s ss s Share value can be obtained by multiplying forecast dividends by the ‘dividend
multiple’ (ie, 1/market’s required dividend yield).
…particularly within the
same sector
Use the ‘dividend multiple’
or (1/market required yield)
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
41 UBS Warburg
s ss s Corporate financiers frequently use market dividend yield as a benchmark for
capitalising dividends in order to estimate the appropriate value for a stock in an
initial public offering.
When to use it
s ss s Dividends are the ultimate ‘in pocket’ cash flow to investors. They are useful for
estimating a floor value for a stock, since both dividends and market yields can
be observed.
s ss s Keep in mind, however, that actual dividends are subject to corporate dividend
policy as well as withholding and franking tax policies. Thus nominal dividend
yields are not comparable across different tax jurisdictions. When valuing a
stock, the sustainability of the dividend cash flow must also be considered.
Useful for estimating a floor
value for a stock
But dividend yields are not
comparable across different
tax regimes
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
42 UBS Warburg
Appendix: Derivation of Target Multiple Formulas
Valuation is a function of value drivers – growth, return on capital, investor required return, etc. The following formulas
show how value drivers can be used in a 2stage model to derive target enterprise value multiples (for equity multiples,
use ROE instead of ROIC, COE instead of WACC, equity FCF instead of FCF, and earnings instead of NOPLAT). The
target multiple calculator model is available on our website: www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
EV/Sales Multiple
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) M x T  1 x
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
Sales
EV
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
EV/EBITDA Multiple
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( ) D  1 x T  1 x
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBITDA
EV
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
EV/EBIT Multiple
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) T  1 x
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBIT
EV
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
EV/NOPLAT Multiple
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
NOPLAT
EV
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
The Proof
Each formula is based upon a standard DCF model which has a constant growth rate in free cash flow of g% for a period
of ‘n’ years and a terminal value at the end of that period.
The link between NOPLAT, FCF and the reinvestment rate (r):
FCF = NOPLAT × (1 – r) ..... 1
The link between growth (g), posttax return on invested capital (ROIC) and reinvestment rate (r):
g = ROIC × r or r = g / ROIC ..... 2
The value (EV) of a perpetuity of cash flow (FCF) growing at a constant rate (g) and discounted at the weighted average
cost of capital (WACC):
( ) g  WACC
1
FCF
= EV
..... 3
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
43 UBS Warburg
Formula 3 above can be modified to apply to a growing annuity of cash flows which stops after n years:
( )
( )
( )
]
]
]
]
]
,
,
,
¸
,
n
WACC + 1
n
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC
1
FCF
= EV
..... 4
Substituting equations 1 and 2 into 3 gives:
( ) g  WACC
ROIC
g
 1 x
1
NOPLAT
= EV
(
,
\
,
(
j
..... 5
and rearranging:
( )
( ) g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC x
1
NOPLAT
= EV
..... 6
In calculating a terminal value at the end of the growth period, it is assumed that ROIC equals WACC (ie conditions of
zero valueadding growth). Therefore equation 6 becomes:
WACC
1
NOPLAT
= EV
..... 7
Formulae 1 and 2 can also be substituted into equation 4. Following rearrangement this becomes:
( )
( )
( )
( ) ]
]
]
]
,
,
¸
,
n
n
1
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC x NOPLAT
= EV
..... 8
Putting it Together
Equation 8 represents the value of cash flows in the growth period. Equation 7 can be used to value subsequent cash
flows, although NOPLAT
1
needs to be replaced by NOPLAT
(n+1)
and this ‘terminal value’ must be discounted to a
present value. The overall value then becomes:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
n
n
1
n
n
1
WACC + 1
1
x
WACC
g + 1 x NOPLAT
+
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC x NOPLAT
= EV
]
]
]
]
,
,
¸
,
..... 9
Dividing by NOPLAT
1
gives the formula for the EV/NOPLAT multiple:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
n
n
n
n
1 WACC + 1
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
NOPLAT
EV
]
]
]
]
,
,
¸
,
..... 10
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
44 UBS Warburg
If the effective rate of corporation tax is T%, depreciation as a percentage of EBITDA is D% and the EBIT margin is
M%, then the following links can be derived:
Sales × M = EBIT ..... 11
EBIT × (1 – T) = NOPLAT ..... 12
EBITDA × (1 – D) = EBIT ..... 13
Substituting equation 12 into equation 10 gives the formula for the EV/EBIT multiple:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) T  1 x
WACC + 1
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBIT
EV
n
n
n
n
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
..... 14
Substituting equations 13 into equation 14 gives the formula for the EV/EBITDA multiple:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( ) D  1 x T  1 x
WACC + 1
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
EBITDA
EV
n
n
n
n
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
..... 15
Substituting equations 11 into equation 14 gives the formula for the EV/sales multiple:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) M x T  1 x
WACC + 1
g + 1
x
WACC
1
+
WACC + 1
g + 1
 1 x
g  WACC x ROIC
g  ROIC
=
Sales
EV
n
n
n
n
(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j
..... 16
Note: In using these formula there is a problem where WACC is exactly the same as g as this produces a ‘divide by zero’
error. However, the formula works for any values of WACC and g where these are different even if they are very close in
value. To avoid the ‘divide by zero’ problem the formula actually used in the GVG target multiple model have a very
small number (0.0000001) added to the input value of g. This has no material effect on the multiples produced but does
virtually ensure that the ‘divide by zero’ error will not arise, even if the user happens to choose the same values for
WACC and g.
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
45 UBS Warburg
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
46 UBS Warburg
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VAD0215C
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
Contents
Peter Suozzo
+8522971 6121
peter.suozzo@ubsw.com
page
An Introduction to Multiples ........................................................................... 3 — What Is a Multiple? ......................................................................... 3 — Advantages/Disadvantages of Multiples ........................................... 3 — Enterprise versus Equity Multiples ................................................... 5 — Why Multiples Vary......................................................................... 5 — Choosing the Pricing Date............................................................. 10 Target Valuation Multiples ........................................................................... 13 — What Is a Target Multiple?............................................................. 13 — Singlestage Target Multiples ........................................................ 14 — Twostage Target Multiples ........................................................... 15 — Examples..................................................................................... 16 — Assumptions Used in Target Multiple Formulas .............................. 17 — The Effect of Growth on Value....................................................... 18 Using Valuation Multiples ............................................................................ 20 Enterprise Value Multiples........................................................................... 24 — What Is Enterprise Value?............................................................. 24 — Why Use Enterprise Value Multiples? ............................................ 25 — Potential Problems in Calculating EV ............................................. 26 — Enterprise Value Multiples............................................................. 28 Equity Multiples .......................................................................................... 37 — What Are Equity Multiples? ........................................................... 37 — Equity Multiples ............................................................................ 37 Appendix: Derivation of Target Multiple Formulas ......................................... 42
Stephen Cooper
+44207568 1962
stephen.cooper@ubsw.com
Gillian Sutherland
+44207568 8369
gillian.sutherland@ubsw.com
Zhen Deng
+1212713 9921
zhen.deng@ubsw.com
For research, valuation models and more on equity analysis go to the Global Valuation Group website...
www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg
2 UBS Warburg
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
Section 1
An Introduction to Multiples
This document is intended to be a reference manual for the calculation of commonly used valuation multiples. We explain how multiples are calculated and discuss the different variations that can be employed. We discuss the differences between equity and enterprise multiples, show how target or ‘fair’ multiples can be derived from underlying value drivers, and discuss the ways multiples can be used in valuation. For each multiple, we show its calculation and derivation from underlying DCF fundamentals, discuss its strengths and weaknesses, and suggest appropriate use. This document will be maintained online and any changes will be posted to our website at www.ubswarburg.com/research/gvg.
What Is a Multiple?
A valuation multiple is simply an expression of market value relative to a key statistic that is assumed to relate to that value. To be useful, that statistic – whether earnings, cash flow or some other measure – must bear a logical relationship to the market value observed; to be seen, in fact, as the driver of that market value.
Two basic types: enterprise and equity multiples
s
There are two basic types of multiple – enterprise value and equity: Enterprise multiples express the value of an entire enterprise – the value of all claims on a business – relative to a statistic that relates to the entire enterprise, such as sales or EBIT. Equity multiples, by contrast, express the value of shareholders’ claims on the assets and cash flow of the business. An equity multiple therefore expresses the value of this claim relative to a statistic that applies to shareholders only, such as earnings (the residual left after payments to creditors, minority shareholders and other nonequity claimants).
s
Advantages/Disadvantages of Multiples
Disadvantages. There are a number of criticisms levied against multiples, but in the main these can be summarised as:
s
Simplistic: A multiple is a distillation of a great deal of information into a single number or series of numbers. By combining many value drivers into a point estimate, multiples may make it difficult to disaggregate the effect of different drivers, such as growth, on value. The danger is that this encourages simplistic – and possibly erroneous – interpretation. Static: A multiple represents a snapshot of where a firm is at a point in time, but fails to capture the dynamic and everevolving nature of business and competition. Difficult to compare: Multiples are primarily used to make comparisons of relative value. But comparing multiples is an exacting art form, because there are so many reasons that multiples can differ, not all of which relate to true
s
s
3 UBS Warburg
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001
differences in value. For example, different accounting policies can result in diverging multiples for otherwise identical operating businesses.
Usefulness, simplicity and relevance make multiples a popular valuation tool
s
Advantages Despite these disadvantages, multiples have several advantages.
Usefulness: Valuation is about judgement, and multiples provide a framework for making value judgements. When used properly, multiples are robust tools that can provide useful information about relative value. Simplicity: Their very simplicity and ease of calculation makes multiples an appealing and userfriendly method of assessing value. Multiples can help the user avoid the potentially misleading precision of other, more ‘precise’ approaches such as discounted cash flow valuation or EVA1, which can create a false sense of comfort. Relevance: Multiples focus on the key statistics that other investors use. Since investors in aggregate move markets, the most commonly used statistics and multiples will have the most impact.
s
s
These factors, and the existence of wideranging comparables, help explain the enduring use of multiples by investors despite the rise of other methods.
Table 1: Advantages and Disadvantages of Valuation Multiples
Advantages Useful – multiples can be robust tools that provide useful information about relative value Simple – ease of calculation and wide availability of data make multiples an appealing method for assessing value Relevant – Multiples are based on key statistics that investors use Disadvantages Simplistic – combine many value drivers into a point estimate. Difficult to disaggregate the effect of different value drivers Static – Multiples measure value at a single point in time and do not fully capture the dynamic nature of business and competition Difficult to compare – Multiples differ for many reasons, not all relating to true differences in value. This can result in misleading ‘applestooranges’ comparisons among multiples
Source: UBS Warburg
1
‘Economic Value Added’ is a registered trademark of Stern, Stewart & Co.
4 UBS Warburg
growth and duration of growth. How much is growth worth? What is the impact of a change in return on capital? We consider these issues in Target Valuation Multiples.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Enterprise versus Equity Multiples In the table below we have summarised the relative advantages of using enterprise value (EV) versus equity multiples and vice versa. Accounting Differences Differences in accounting policies that do not affect cash flow do not affect value Differences in accounting policies that do not affect cash flow do not affect value. 2. higherquality businesses deserve higher valuation multiples. we are interested in how to allow for differences in these value drivers. Table 2: Enterprise Value versus Equity Multiples Enterprise value multiples Allow the user to focus on statistics where accounting policy differences can be minimised (EBITDA. as a result. differences in multiples can paint a misleading picture of relative valuation. For more details please see page 25 below. These can be distilled down to four quantitative valuation drivers: return on capital. cost of capital. available investment opportunities. OpFCF) Avoid the influence of capital structure on equity value multiples More comprehensive (apply to the entire enterprise) Wider range of multiples possible Easier to apply to cash flow Enables the user to exclude noncore assets Source: UBS Warburg Equity multiples More relevant to equity valuation More reliable (estimating enterprise value involves more subjectivity. Company A does not amortise goodwill while Company B amortises over 10 years (amortisation of 2 per year). starting on page 13. But accounting policy differences do affect profit multiples and. especially in the valuation of noncore assets) More familiar to investors Why Multiples Vary There are four primary reasons why multiples can vary: s s s s Differences in the quality of the business (ie differences in value drivers) Accounting differences Fluctuations in cash flow or profit (ie they are unrepresentative of the future) Mispricing 1. Differences in the Quality of the Business All things equal. As investors. 5 UBS Warburg . such as quality of management. strategy and branding. This is another way of saying that there are qualitative differences in the fundamental underlying drivers of valuation. consider two identical companies with 20 of goodwill on the balance sheet and 10 in pregoodwill profit. For example.
July 2001. We consider the issue of goodwill more fully in our report Equity Analysis InsideOut No 2: Goodwill in Equity Analysis. Adjustment Some UBSW sector teams standardise the depreciation charge. goodwill (and other aspects of business combinations). asset values and related ratios such as return on capital. provisioning and deferred tax. but for the database as a whole we take a different approach. Revaluation is permitted under IAS and a number of national accounting policies. and many would not have a material effect.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Table 3: Goodwill Amortisation and Earnings Multiples Company A Net income Share price Price to earnings multiple Source: UBS Warburg 10 200 20x Company B 8 ? ? Since both companies have identical cash earnings they have the same value and should trade at the same share price (same number of shares assumed). net income and EPS. Accounting differences are not a trivial issue There are many different factors that cause differences in profit measurement. a recent study comparing US GAAP with international accounting standards identified over 250 such differences. While it is virtually impossible to completely eliminate the impact of different accounting methodologies. Not all of these affect profit measurement. Table 4: Key Adjustments to Ensure Comparable Presentation Item Issue A major item in many company accounts and one where there can be significant differences in accounting policies. However. there is still much that the analyst can do to mitigate their impact and produce data relevant to equity analysis. the investment of capital in goodwill should be included in capital employed (including previously amortised and writtenoff goodwill) for ROIC calculations. This is a ‘standardised depreciation’ measure that has the advantage of being cash flowbased and forwardlooking. In particular. Depreciation Goodwill amortisation Differences in goodwill accounting affect profit measures. But it clearly would be wrong to conclude that Company A is cheaper than Company B. All UBSW analysts are required to estimate ‘maintenance capital expenditure’. Depreciation can be largely unrelated to economic consumption of an asset. to name some of the most important. While we believe goodwill is an important asset that should be charged against profit in appropriate periods. systematic amortisation does not provide any useful information to investors and may even be misleading. Maintenance capital expenditure is a component of UBSW operating free cash flow. one can: s s Restate accounting data to a common format Focus on key statistics that are less affected by accounting differences Restating Accounting Data In Table 4 below we examine some of the adjustments to accounting data that can be made to ensure greater data comparability. but accounting differences are clearly not a trivial issue. Note also that depreciation can be affected by asset revaluation. In fact. Goodwill amortisation should be excluded from performance statistics including operating income. a key component to our approach to crossborder equity analysis (see page 32). However. 6 UBS Warburg . there is no information content whatsoever in the difference between the two multiples. but not under US GAAP. This implies an earnings multiple of 25x for Company B. as well as unaffected by accounting differences. it appears that a few key issues dominate – depreciation.
taking them from higher up the income statement. cash flow naturally varies and a single year’s cash flow is not necessarily a good basis for predicting the future. no adjustments are necessary. As a result we do not automatically adjust for leases in our database unless leasing is highly material. particularly with respect to balance sheet and enterprise value ratios. including the impact of surpluses and deficits and the interest cost of obligations. December 1998. Remove financial items such as the spread between the return on pension assets and the interest cost of the corresponding obligation. see our report Valuation and Accounting Briefing No. The interest cost relating to this liability should be removed from EBIT measures used in conjunction with enterprise value in valuation. Capitalisation is possible. the manner in which this is achieved can differ from country to country.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Item Issue IAS 37 defines provisions as liabilities of uncertain timing or amount which should be recognised when an enterprise has incurred a present obligation that will result in a probable. keep in mind that there is a danger that key aspects of company performance can be missed when this is done. In a number of markets (notably in continental Europe) standards are more generous in permitting companies to make provisions that may not meet IAS criteria For companies with defined contribution plans. exceptional or abnormal. does not create a liability. mainly involving differences in the classification of capital (finance) leases. are treated as operating items. investors and analysts should also seek to use valuation statistics that are least likely to be distorted by accounting. associates are classified as peripheral assets and are therefore excluded from UBSW ‘core EBIT’ figures. reliably estimable outflow of resources. 6: Pension Obligations. Provisions Pensions and postretirement health benefits Leases Income from associates Unusual items Source: UBS Warburg Focus on Key Statistics Less Affected by Accounting Differences Some accounting statistics are more comparable than others… Since it is not possible to eliminate all accounting differences. for which the accounting is similar). Unfortunately both the type of item included in this category and its presentation in the income statement varies. not purchased. These ‘exceptionals’ would include gains and losses on capital transactions and all truly oneoff operating items such as the cost of restructuring. A capitalised lease is an onbalance sheet debt obligation with a corresponding interest charge. though. by consistently capitalising all lease obligations. 7 UBS Warburg . November 2001. s …but most are incomplete or subjective in other ways and should be used with care Cash flow: The advantage of cash flow as a basis for valuation is that. some adjustments may need to be made. However. In most accounting systems all pension charges. particularly on a historical basis. EBIT should reflect only ongoing service costs. not financing expense. Allocation of prior gains/losses should be removed from performance measures. All such ‘exceptional’ items should be excluded from EBIT and adjusted net income figures. It is important to ensure consistent treatment. Generally. The unfunded portion of a postretirement obligation (or a net funded deficit) should be added to enterprise value. these statistics should be interpreted with care and preferably not in isolation. Equity accounting is used almost universally to account for associates. rather than profit data. This is mitigated by using forecast cash flows since this volatility diminishes. but even so cash flow is more suited to DCF valuations than to performance measures and valuation multiples. is that. This essentially means focusing more on cash flow. There are major international differences in the treatment of leases in company accounts. However. particularly in the measurement of EBIT. Adjustment Where material. the leased asset is considered rented. An operating lease. nonconforming provisions should be reversed out of the profit and loss account. The problem. and where profit measures are used. which we believe is incorrect. 2: Provision Accounting. and the leasing cost is treated as an operating. For a more detailed discussion. but as disclosure is inconsistent adjustments may be highly subjective. the leased asset is considered purchased. it is entirely independent of accounting methodology. see our report Equity Analysis InsideOut No. whilst any funded recoverable surplus should be deducted. Unusual or nonrecurring gains and losses are given a variety of names such as extraordinary. when calculated properly. the airlines sector is a good example of where adjustments are made. Comparability would be improved. For a more detailed discussion of provision accounting. and nonoperating gains and losses as a result of surpluses and deficits. This means that the group’s share of associate net income is included in the group income statement. For companies with defined benefit plans (both pension and postretirement health plans. by contrast.
although less reliable due to the estimations required (see page 32). forwardlooking and unaffected by accounting. This is partly true. it provides a useful and comparable measure. therefore.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Revenue: Revenue has often been advocated as a suitable basis for analysis and valuation on the grounds that it is largely comparable across different accounting systems.com/research/gvg. Although there are other accounting problems that do affect EBITDA (revenue and cost recognition issues.. OpFCF is. is that it ignores the very real costs of capital expenditure and taxation that should (and do) affect value. and .. 8 UBS Warburg . OpFCF = EBITDA – maintenance capex – maintenance increase/(decrease) in net working capital. goodwill accounting and deferred tax. they can be substantially affected by different interpretations of accounting standards. however. pensions accounting. It is cashbased. September 1999. etc). A crucial failing of EBITDA. a more relevant measure to use in analysis and valuation. — s EBITDA: EBITDA has become the most common measure of performance and value that supposedly overcomes the problem of accounting differences. February 1999. 3. Consider a company that has a steady earnings trend but takes a oneoff restructuring charge: 2 The problems of EBITDA are explored in more detail in our publications EBITDA Multiples and Capital Intensity. Profit fluctuations can have a substantial impact on multiples.But it Looks Cheap on EV/EBITDA. in that the measure is unaffected by differences in depreciation methods. although the problems are not as acute as for profit measures (see the discussion of the enterprise value/sales multiple on page 28). available at ubswarburg. 2 OpFCF is not perfect but is our preferred approach to improving comparability s Operating free cash flow (OpFCF): OpFCF is a modified version of EBITDA designed to retain the benefits EBITDA provides in accounting comparability but avoid the problem of ignoring differences in capital intensity (capex). Revenue as a performance measure and basis for valuation should be a last resort if other more relevant profit measures are unavailable or unreliable. Revenue is an incomplete measure of performance given its lack of focus on profitability and cash flow. ‘Maintenance capex’ is the amount an analyst estimates must be spent on fixed assets to maintain the profitability and competitive position of the company in real terms. Fluctuations in Profits Multiples are only meaningful if the profit statistic used is representative of the future. There are two problems with this: — Sales are not as unaffected by accounting policies as is commonly thought. unlike the related depreciation charge.
9 UBS Warburg . and similarly rose into the mid 30s in 1994. Chart 1: General Motors Price/Earnings Multiple versus Earnings per Share 100x 80x 60x 40x 20x 0x Jan73 Jan75 Jan77 Jan79 Jan81 Jan83 Jan85 Jan87 Jan89 Jan91 Jan93 Jan95 Jan97 Jan99 Jan01 $15 $12 $9 $6 $3 $0 …notably for cyclicals. GM’s PE ratio rose from approximately 8x into the high 90s in late 1980 before earnings recovered. earnings at any given time are probably not a good proxy for future cash flow. Automobile manufacturers. A naive comparison of this multiple with that of peers or the sector will not be illuminating and is unlikely in itself to provide an opportunity to identify mispricing.3x 2001 14 260 18. GM has traded at a normalised PE ratio averaging 9x. the US automobile manufacturer (see Chart 1 below). with their high fixed costs. it is unlikely that the price will collapse in 2002 simply because of a temporary drop in earnings. investors will ‘look through’ 2002 earnings and the earnings multiple for 2002 is therefore likely to be very high. after removing outliers.0x 2000 12 220 18. have notoriously cyclical earnings. During the Volcker antiinflationary recession of 19801982 and again during the Gulf War recession of 19901991. On average. earnings fell and then turned negative (largely because of restructuring provisions). but rose sharply as the economy recovered. For a cyclical company such as GM. a normalised figure better represents the company’s earnings power. GM’s share price during the period mirrors the upward secular trend in earnings rather than the peaks and valleys (Chart 2). for which cash flow can be highly volatile PER (lhs) Source: Primark Datastream Note: shaded areas = US recessions EPS (rhs) EPS 5yma (rhs) Investors value lookthrough cash flows Investors recognise this.6x 2002E 3 ? ? 2003E 17 ? ? Singlepoint multiples can be misleading… Since earnings will recover in 2003.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Table 5: Fluctuating Earnings and the PE Multiple 1999 Earnings Average price Historical priced PE multiple Source: UBS Warburg 10 200 20. A reallife example is provided by General Motors. The market appears to price cyclical earnings efficiently. The spot PE ratio for these periods is not very informative.
then the stock may simply be mispriced. 4. the analyst’s skill is in distinguishing between differences arising from underlying fundamentals – and therefore justified – and those arising from mispricing. In practice a fourth. If current/subsequent years’ profits are still unrepresentative of the longer term. one should: s s exclude exceptional items if using historical profits. partialforward approach is applied to enterprise values. We discuss forwardpriced multiples below. then one should (a) use normalised profit or cash flow. Where this is not the case. 10 UBS Warburg . accounting differences or profit fluctuations. growing earnings stream. Chart 2: General Motors $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Jan73 Jan75 Jan77 Jan79 Jan81 Jan83 Jan85 Jan87 Jan89 Jan91 Jan93 Jan95 Jan97 Jan99 Jan01 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Share price (lhs) Source: Primark Datastream EPS 5yma (rhs) Dealing with Profit Fluctuations A multiple is only meaningful if the profit on which it is based is indicative of future profit potential. or (b) consider using ‘forwardpriced’ multiples. in line with the secular earnings trend. Choosing the Pricing Date Three pricing dates can be used to calculate a multiple Which pricing date should one use when calculating a multiple? There are three valid alternative prices that can be used in multiples – historical. but is less than ideal. but not much more on average because of the volatility of GM’s realised earnings. or use forecast rather than historical profits. Mispricing If differences in multiples are not fully explained by differences in business quality. The result has been a fairly steady climb in GM’s share price through several business cycles. current and forward.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Investors have been willing to pay a certain multiple of a normalised. It is the analyst’s task to identify mispricing.
Forwardpriced multiples are particularly useful for growth stocks. A forward price is that price necessary for an investor to earn a satisfactory return on the investment. ‘Historical’ price is generally the average for year. Effectively a forwardpriced multiple is a partial DCF valuation expressed as a multiple.and forwardpriced multiples. ie a current price adjusted for the cost of carry: s s Forward price @ t1 = (Price at t0) × (1+cost of capital) – investor cash flow @ t1 Forward multiples are based on the concept that companies are more comparable at maturity The concept behind the use of forward multiples is that companies are more comparable when they have reached a mature phase and differences between them are most likely to be the result of true differences in value rather than where they sit on the lifecycle curve. Forwardpriced multiples: Comparison of a forward price or enterprise value with forecast profits. Currentpriced multiples: Comparison of current price or enterprise value with historical or forecast profits – generally one year of historical and two years of forecast profits. Forwardpriced multiples are used to investigate current value. Historicalpriced multiples are used to establish a trading range. Currentpriced multiples are used to investigate current value. Currentpriced multiples based upon currentyear earnings can be compared with historical. see our report Forwardpriced Multiples. available at ubswarburg. 3 3 For a more detailed discussion. etc). and they can be compared over time.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Table 6: Alternative Pricing Bases for Multiples Pricing basis Historical Current Forward Calculation Average price or enterprise value for a period Current price or enterprise value Forward price or enterprise value Current market cap plus forecast net debt (applies to enterprise value only) Profit or cash flow used Historical profit for the same period Any historical or forecast profit Forecast profit for a period related to the forward price date Forecast profit for a period related to the forward price date Use in valuation Establishes a historical trading range Investigation of current value – best to use current year forecast profit Investigation of current value – superior to currentpriced multiple for forecasts beyond one year Investigation of current value but the partialforward price is inconsistent and difficult to interpret Partialforward Source: UBS Warburg s Historicalpriced multiples: Comparison of historical price or enterprise value with historical profits (cash flow. September 1998. unlike currentpriced multiples. especially where the current profit or cash flow is negative.com/research/gvg. 11 UBS Warburg .
For example. Other components of enterprise value. a company that is forecast to have lower cash flow than another in the coming years would have a higher net debt and therefore a higher partialforward EV. such as minorities and pension provisions. a current equity value is combined with a forecast net debt figure in calculating enterprise value to be compared with forecast profit and cash flow measures. it does take account of at least part of the future cash flow that affects value.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Chart 3: Multiple Comparisons and Lifecycles Growth rate Multiples likely to be most comparable where companies are at similar points in their lifecycles Now Source: UBS Warburg Time Forward s Partialforward multiples: In a partialforward approach. 12 UBS Warburg . While this approach does not have the consistency of the pure forwardpriced method above. Poor cash flow is effectively penalised by a higher multiple. Note: Standard enterprise value multiples that appear in UBS Warburg research reports are historically priced for historical periods and partiallyforward priced for forecast periods. may be included at either forecast or current value.
That is. A fair multiple results in a net present value of zero A fair multiple is that multiple paid which results in the investment having a net present value of zero. what multiple could you have paid for Microsoft in 1990 and still have received a fair return on your investment? High multiples can be fair multiples… Ex post. ‘Fair return’ in this context means your required return on either equity or capital. An investor with perfect foresight could have paid 42x sales.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Section 2 Target Valuation Multiples Multiples are primarily used for relative comparisons: for a stock relative to its historical trend. etc) that you could pay. growth and duration of growth. and received an average 14. given certain underlying value drivers. What Is a Target Multiple? A target multiple is the maximum multiple (of earnings. the reciprocal of the internal rate of return: 1/IRR. the ‘fair’ share price at the end of each year equals the previous year’s share price × 1. But it is also possible to derive a ‘fair’ or target multiple.5% plus a 5% equity risk premium. depending on which measure you are applying. (The fortunate investor who bought in 1990 and held received a 44% compound return. relative to other companies. ie. We then divide sales for each period by the ‘fair’ price at the end of that period to get a fair EV/sales multiple. Example With perfect foresight.145.5% based on the tenyear Treasury note rate at that time of 9.5% return through today. cost of capital (or equity). giving us a ‘fair’ price curve.) Chart 4: Expost fair EV/Sales Multiple – Microsoft EV / sales 50x 40x 30x 20x 10x 0x Jun90 Jun91 Jun92 Jun93 Jun94 Jun95 Jun96 Jun97 Jun98 Jun99 Jun00 Jun01 Jun02 Actual multiple Source: UBS Warburg Ex post 'fair' multiple 4 Primarily return on capital (or equity). 13 UBS Warburg . we estimate that you could have paid an EV/sales multiple of 42x in 1990. 4 and receive a fair return on your investment. EBITDA. The calculation is simple: we assume a cost of equity of 14. more than eight times the price at that time. and discount back today’s price (adjusted for cumulative dividends) at that rate to 1990. relative to its sector. and so forth.
This model can be found at www.com/research/gvg Chart 5: UBS Warburg Global Valuation Group Target Multiple Calculator Source: UBS Warburg Singlestage Target Multiples Exante fair multiples can be derived from underlying value drivers We have summarised key multiples and their underlying formulas below. depreciation. along with other models.ubswarburg. These fair or target multiples can be calculated. A word of caution. The Global Valuation Group’s ‘target multiple’ model can be used to quickly obtain a range of target multiples for a different input values. For example. A derivation of the key formulas can be found in the Appendix. cost of capital and growth. using a discounted cash flowequivalent approach.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 We do not need to know what the actual value drivers were in order to estimate a retrospective fair multiple. These formulas are most useful in identifying which factors have the greatest impact on a multiple for which you already have a value. however! These are based on limiting assumptions and should be used with care. based on underlying drivers of return on capital. multiples obtained using these formulas are likely to over. The target multiple calculator model. can be found at: www. As a result. margins.ubswarburg. and growth is assumed to continue into perpetuity. as we can work backward from a known share price. 14 UBS Warburg . In 1990 Microsoft’s future success was neither apparent nor impounded in the share price.or understate fair value. …if supported by the underlying value drivers But it is precisely those value drivers – particularly Microsoft’s high return on capital and high growth rate requiring minimal reinvestment – that drove the share price.com/research/gvg. But an investor who did see Microsoft’s potential and translated that potential into value driver estimates would have been willing to pay a much higher multiple. taxation and rate of investment are all assumed to remain constant.
constituting: 1.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Table 7: ‘Fair’ or Target Multiples Multiple Basic formula EV / sales ROIC .T ) ROIC x (WACC .g ) ROIC − g ROIC .g) Initial growth period Perpetuity.g EV ROIC .g x (1 . followed by 2.g) Price to book value PE to earnings growth Source: UBS Warburg Note: ROIC and ROE = incremental posttax return on incremental total investment and equity.g ROIC x (WACC − g) x ROIC or WACC . no additional value added. COE = cost of equity.g NOPLAT = x Unit ROIC x (WACC . cash flows are discounted at the cost of capital in perpetuity).g x (1 . T = effective tax rate.g x (1 .D) ROIC x (WACC .T )x M ROIC x (WACC .g ROE x (COE . g = assumed longterm growth rate.g) ROIC .g ROE x (COE − g) x ROE or COE .g ) ROIC .g 100 x g x ROE x (COE .g) Unit EV / NOPLAT EV / invested capital EV / capacity unit Price to earnings ROE . WACC = weighted average cost of capital. D = depreciation and amortisation as a % of EBITDA. M = operating margin Twostage Target Multiples More realism is introduced by using a twostage approach The assumption in the formulas above that valueadding growth will continue into perpetuity is suspect. Competitive pressures and the size effect invariably check growth rates.g ROIC x (WACC . The twostage version of the PE target multiple formula is: P ROE . An initial growth period with a specified level of growth and return on equity over a limited time horizon.g ) EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT ROIC . A terminal phase in which no further value is added (that is.g ) ROE − g ROE . discounted back to today 15 UBS Warburg .g ROE . respectively.g (1 + g)n 1 (1+ g)n x 1 − + x = (1 + COE)n COE (1 + COE)n E ROE x (COE .T )x (1 . To cope with this. we can use a twostage model.
10) or 10x the coupon. The fair PE multiple is 10x regardless of the company’s growth rate. and the maximum you would pay is (1/. The factor in brackets is the weight assigned to the first stage multiple. The fair PE ratio in this instance is: P . The longer the growth period. this model states a discounted cash flow calculation as a multiple. This is the basic formula used in the GVG target multiple model. the company does not generate any surplus return above your cost of equity). value added in first stage: Now let’s assume that instead.05 = 4.3 = 10. the sum of the two weights equals one. higher growth = more value s All things equal.6x x 1 − = 10 . Thereafter any cash flows are discounted at the cost of equity of 10%. Its corresponding weight is assigned to the perpetuity multiple..g (1 + g)n ROELT . The derivation of the twostage formula can be found in the Appendix. In this case the fair PE ratio is 10 1.0510 P . There is no value added (that is. value added: Now consider a company with a return on equity of 12% and a growth rate of 5% to perpetuity. finite growth means a lower multiple than in the perpetualgrowth case s Twostage model.10) and then discounted back to the present (divided by 1.. In effect.3 + 6.05) Surplus return over cost of capital generates value. Simple model. Examples Fair value multiples should be based on = 1/cost of capital s Simple model.12 .10 E . This investment is identical to a bond paying 10% in perpetuity.10 . the larger the first term. the higher the growth rate. the larger the second term. value added both stages: The formula can be further extended to allow for valueadding growth in the perpetuity or second stage. the higher the growth rate.0510) converted to a perpetuity (ie divided by 0. the company grows at 5% pa but for ten years only. Because the company generates a return above your cost of equity..10 1. The first term is the value added in stage one.1010). you will pay a higher PE ratio. This formula is stated as P ROE .12 (..gLT (1 + g)n x 1 − x = + n ROE n E ROE x (COE . The second term is the unitary value of the terminal cash flow (ie 1 × 1.g) (1 + COE) LT x (COELT . contemplating investing in a company with a return on equity of 10% and a growth rate of 5% into perpetuity.gLT ) (1+ COE) 16 UBS Warburg .12 .12(. the more value added and the higher the PE you will pay.05 + 1 x 1.1010 which is between the 10x multiple of the simple novalue added case and the 12x multiple of the perpetuity valueadded case.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Twostage formulas are used in the Global Valuation Group (GVG) target multiple model. s Twostage model. no value added: Suppose you are in investor with a required return on equity (cost of equity) of 10%.05) 1. and therefore the rate of growth is irrelevant. and the second term the value added in the stage two.10 .05 = = 12x E .
10 .. This is then multiplied by a cash flow exit multiple (the PE formula using longterm value drivers) to give us the terminal value at the end of the first stage. using the initialperiod growth rate. and assuming that return on equity and cost of equity remain the same but growth falls to 2% pa. Higher quality businesses/ lower required capital reinvestment result in a higher surplus return s Excess return on capital: This is the difference between the return on capital (or equity) and the weighted average cost of capital (or cost of equity): cost of capital + excess return = return on capital. A multiplebased valuation approach is simply another way of formulating a discounted cash flow valuation. depreciation. For capitalintensive companies in competitive industries that do not have strong franchises.09 (. This rate is assumed to apply to revenues.9x earnings) because the return on equity is higher than the required return.5x – 10. Cost of capital: The standard weighted average cost of capital (or cost of equity). 1) to a terminal cash flow at the end of the initial growth period. fair value PE is: 10 1.1010 E . profit and cash flow during this period since the model assumes that margins. s Growth drivers assumed to be constant over the growth period s 17 UBS Warburg .05 = 4. Different valuation approaches using similar assumptions should give the same answer What should be apparent is that different valuation approaches using similar assumptions should give the same answer.1010 .08 .02 ) 1. This is the longterm required return of investors in the company and should reflect estimates of longterm risk and longterm target level of gearing. The higher the quality of the business and the lower its (tangible asset) capital intensity..05) Although the growth rate has fallen.12(.. where the same assumptions are used in both.02 x 1.12 .05 + . Assumptions Used in Target Multiple Formulas The assumptions used in these formulas must be given careful thought to ensure that they are consistent..Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 where ROELT = the longterm return on equity.6x = 1.1 = 12.09 . Applying the same assumptions as above.0510 P . use a figure close to the cost of capital.3 + 8. COELT = the investor’s longterm required return on equity and gLT = the longterm (steady state) growth rate. taxation and the rate of investment all remain constant. This terminal value is then discounted back to today using the current cost of equity. Note that the discount factor in the final term is based on the firststage growth rate and cost of equity. These formulas restate a discounted cash flow calculation as a multiple In other words. the greater this premium should be. The numerator grosses up the current unitary cash flow (that is. Growth rate: This is the annual compound growth forecast for the growth period. even this lower growth adds value (12.5x x 1 − = 1. The user should also be aware of the limitations of these formulas. the two terms of the equation are equivalent to the explicit forecast period and terminal value in a discounted cash flow calculation.
(Conversely. such as those resulting from cost control or higher market share. November 1997. because of the higher nominal value of earnings).com/research/gvg. This is broadly true. requiring more investment to fund that increase in value. П = inflation Efficiency gains can be a valuable source of growth Efficiency gains Productivity gains not requiring additional investment.gr ) The subscript ‘r’ denotes real rather than nominal. There are several different sources of growth and each will have a different effect on value creation and thus share prices. value is destroyed. In this case the PE formula reduces to: 1 COE Reinvestment may or may not add value depending on excess return on capital Reinvestment at a premium to the cost of capital Growth as a result of reinvestment at an incremental return higher than the cost of capital will produce valueadding growth. but the impact of growth depends on its source and nature. 5 For a more detailed discussion of the impact of growth on multiples. it is assumed that at the end of the initial growth period the excess return on capital changes to zero (in the GVG target multiple model this can be modified in the twostage model for which value is added in both stages). The Effect of Growth on Value Growth is seen to have the greatest impact on value… If asked which value driver has the greatest impact on multiples. The four primary sources of growth are: s s s s …but this depends on the source of growth Growth due to reinvestment at the cost of capital Growth due to reinvestment at a premium to the cost of capital Growth due to inflation Growth due to efficiency gains 5 Reinvestment at the cost of capital Growth as a result of reinvestment at the cost of capital does not add value. Even small gains can produce large increases in the PE ratio. available at ubswarburg.gr (ROEr + ∏ ) x (COEr . 18 UBS Warburg . see our report Price Earnings Growth: A PEG for Your Valuations. This is because the replacement value of fixed assets and working capital rises.g) Inflationdriven growth results in a lower multiple Inflationary growth Growth resulting from a general increase in the price level (which produces higher earnings) results in a lower multiple (although not necessarily lower value.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Growth period: The estimated period over which the initial growth rate and the excess return on capital are expected to persist.) The formula is the same as that for the singlestage PE target multiple discussed above: ROE .g ROE x (COE . and neither the share price nor the PE ratio is affected. In the simpler version of the model. if the company reinvests at an incremental return that is below the cost of capital. ROEr . are a valuable source of growth. analysts and investors are likely to answer ‘growth’.
Because efficiency gains are likely to be eroded fairly quickly. Chart 6: Effect of Different Sources of Growth on the PE Ratio PE ratio 50x 40x 30x 20x 10x 0x 0% 2% 3% Earnings growth rate (1) Efficiency gains (2) ROE > COE (4) Inflation only (5) ROE < COE 1% 4% (3) ROE = COE 5% Source: UBS Warburg Note: Assumes perpetual growth arising from: (1) perpetual efficiency gains = the longterm growth rate. g eff = growth achieved from efficiency gains In reality efficiency gains are likely to be eroded quickly Implicit in the above formula is the assumption that efficiency gains are achieved in perpetuity.geff ) ROE x (COE .Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 ROE .(g . (2) and (5) reinvestment at a 3% premium/discount to COE. The chart shows sensitivity of multiples to growth rates for different growth types. (4) inflationary growth only 19 UBS Warburg .g) g = total forecast growth. a more realistic multiple would lie between this multiple and the fair value PE ratio under an assumption of normal reinvestment. (3) reinvestment at COE.
EV/EBITDA to EBITDA growth and so forth. as not all growth adds value 20 UBS Warburg . A simple investment strategy would be to sell when the current multiple is above the fair multiple and buy when it is below. with the multiple at any point in the cycle meanreverting over time to the longterm fair multiple. which determines whether growth adds or subtracts value. An alternate approach is to compare current multiples to those of other companies. a sector or a market. Relative Valuation – Observed Multiple versus Target Multiple Where is the current multiple relative to a ‘fair’ or target multiple? However. A low multiple to growth indicates potential undervaluation.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Section 3 Using Valuation Multiples Relative Valuation – Observed Multiple versus Comparable There are several ways one can apply multiples in valuation. Chart 7: Relative Valuation – a Stylised Example PE multiple 16x 14x 12x 10x 8x 6x 4x Time Source: UBS Warburg Observed multiple 'Fair' multiple Linking Multiples and Value Drivers Multiples are commonly plotted relative to growth or return on capital A more common way to look at multiples is to plot them relative to various value drivers. and compare the current spread between them to a historical spread. The most frequent comparisons are multiples versus growth in an underlying statistic and multiples to return on capital. the current multiple cycles around the fair multiple. one can also compare a stock’s current multiple to a calculated fair or target multiple. as we discuss above. In Chart 7 below. The common approach is to compare the current multiple to a historical multiple measured at a comparable point in the business cycle and macroeconomic environment. But not all growth adds value. One should at the least consider longterm growth potential. Care must used in comparing multiples to growth rates. s Multiple to growth: This includes such comparisons as PE ratio to earnings growth (the PEG ratio). the sustainability of shortterm growth and cash flow reinvestment required to generate growth. At different points in the business cycle the ‘fair’ and observed multiples are likely to differ. this type of comparison ignores profitability.
or. Essentially this is a decomposition of a price to earnings or EV/net operating profit multiple. a comparison of the return on capital to the cost of capital. The line on the chart usually represents a regression line or. You should be careful not to apply a simple multipletogrowth relationship (see Price/Earnings Growth. it could be drawn to represent a certain multiple. EV/invested capital compared to return on capital. alternatively. alternatively. This suggests that these relationships may not be statistically significant and you may not be able to confidently ‘eyeball’ stock values relative to the regression line. Chart 9: Multiple to Return on Capital EV/IC 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x 0% 10% 20% ROIC Source: UBS Warburg 30% 40% 50% 21 UBS Warburg . The actual relationship will depend on other factors such as return on capital. This is particularly true of lowgrowth companies – note that zerogrowth companies will not trade at a zero multiple! The linkage between multiples and profitability makes for more meaningful comparisons s Multiple to return on capital: This includes such comparisons as P/BV compared to ROE. page 39) or you risk overvaluing highgrowth stocks and undervaluing lowgrowth stocks. But a nonlinear relationship is more likely (see Chart 6 on page 19).Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Chart 8: Multiple to Growth PE 30x 25x 20x 15x 10x 5x 0x 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Earnings growth Source: UBS Warburg Zero growth still gets a multiple A caveat This type of plot presumes a linear relationship between multiples and growth.
Multiples used should be relevant and useful and result in the least overlap. Choosing the Right Multiple Multiples should be useful. eg PE:(1/cost of equity) or EV/NOPLAT:(1/WACC). 22 UBS Warburg . (In the example. See the formula for target price to book value on page 38. The earnings yield ratio is the most commonly used of this type of comparison.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Asset multiple to excess return multiple: A variant of the above chart is to compare an assetbased multiple (such as enterprise value/invested capital or price/book) to return on capital or equity or to an ‘excess return multiple’. Chart 10: Asset Multiple to Excess Return Multiple Price / book value 15 Expensive 10 5 Cheap 5 10 5 0 5 (ROEg) / (COEg) 10 15 Source: UBS Warburg s Multiple to interest rate: A less common approach is to compare a yield measure with interest rates or the cost of capital.) This approach provides a clear picture of over. this is return on equity divided by cost of equity. since it directly ties the market’s valuation of an asset to the excess return earned over and above the cost of that asset. in a linear fashion. relevant and economical This is a matter of individual judgement and common sense. Another approach is to compare a multiple to the reciprocal of the cost of capital. below. the UBS Warburg European telecom team favours using EV to operating free cash flow (see page 32 and charts below) over EV/EBITDA when looking at multiples versus growth because they feel that the relationship over time has been more significant and is more useful in predicting future performance. scaled by growth. We recommend that multiples be tested for statistical significance. All key value drivers are shown and related to market value in a single chart. Economy of effort is also important: there is an inevitable tradeoff between cost/time involved in adjusting multiples and improved comparability. For example.and undervaluation. using at least one business cycle of timeseries data.
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Chart 11: European Telecom Sector – ‘babycoms’ – EV/EBITDA EV / EBITDA 20x 15x 10x 5x 0x 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% EBITDA CAGR 01E04E R2 = 0.7235 Source: UBS Warburg Source: UBS Warburg 23 UBS Warburg .069 Chart 12: European Telecom Sector – ‘babycoms’ – EV/OpFCF EV / OpFCF 100x 75x 50x 25x 0x 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% OpFCF CAGR 01E04E R2 = 0.
the value of minorities and other provisions deemed debt..Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Section 4 Enterprise Value Multiples What Is Enterprise Value? s Enterprise value or EV is the cost of buying the right to the whole of an enterprise's core cash flow. EV equals market capitalisation plus seasonally adjusted net debt (see page 26). Includes the value of investments and associates.. operating and core Enterprise value comes in three flavours: total. as described below. The right to an enterprise's cash flow or the value of claims on that cash flow s s Chart 13: Enterprise Value Components Market capitalisation Net debt Minority interests Debtdeemed provisions Other claims Sum of the values of claims on enterprise profit or cash flow equals . It is equal to the estimated value of the operations of an enterprise as represented by the value of the various claims on cash flow and profit. Total enterprise value Core enterprise value Source: UBS Warburg Noncore assets Three types of EV: total. pension provisions. Table 8: Description of the Various Types of Enterprise Value Type Total less = Operating less = Core Description The value of all the activities of the business. operating and core EV. Total enterprise value less nonoperating assets at market value Noncore assets (nonoperating assets and operating assets not a core activity of the business) Total enterprise value less the value of noncore assets – those operations not regarded as part of core activities and which are desirable to exclude from the calculation of valuation multiples Noncore assets include nonoperating assets but may also include other trading operations which are very different in nature to the core activities of the enterprise The exclusion of noncore assets makes the calculation of enterprise value more subjective (in most cases there is no marketdetermined value for the noncore assets) but it does result in more meaningful and comparable valuation multiples Source: UBS Warburg 24 UBS Warburg . and noncore assets Estimated market value of nonoperating assets (investment and usually associates) The value of all operating activities. UBS Warburg valuation measures are based on core enterprise value.
8 28% Company A 10. that are less affected by accounting differences. such as EBITDA. by contrast. as they measure the unlevered value of an enterprise.6 3.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Chart 14: Enterprise Value Typology CORE EV OPERATING EV Nonoperating assets Noncore assets Noncore operating assets Noncore operating assets Operating assets (core and noncore) TOTAL EV Nonoperating assets Core assets Core assets Core assets Source: UBS Warburg Why Use Enterprise Value Multiples? Enterprise value multiples more comparable than equity multiples s As summarised in Table 2 above. Company B trades at a priceearnings ratio above that of Company A but in line with the sector average. 25 UBS Warburg . Stripping out the excess cash balance. enterprise multiples are more comprehensive than equity multiples. Both Company A and the sector as a whole. This discount may be justified. but its existence is significant. As a result. — Table 9: Benefits of Using Enterprise Value – Leverage Sector PE EV/EBITDA Net cash as % of market capitalisation Net debt as % of total EV Source: UBS Warburg 14.0 46%  s Less affected by accounting differences: EV multiples allow for the use of statistics. there are a number of reasons for using enterprise rather than equity multiples. Less affected by capital structure: EV multiples are less affected by capital structure differences. B trades at low relative multiple of EBITDA to ‘core’ EV. the PE ratio is significantly distorted by B’s high net cash balance. — s In the table below (based on actual figures). which accounts for almost half of market capitalisation.9 8. which focus only on the value of the equityholders’ claims.3 8. However. Comprehensiveness: Enterprise value measures the business as a whole.1 31% Company B 14. B’s core business is valued at a significant discount to those of its peers. The analyst should investigate and understand the discrepancy. are levered approximately 30%.
and using the stated balance sheet amount can result in large errors. Noncore assets include nonoperating and any other trading activities that are so different in nature that failure to exclude them from core EV would seriously distort multiples. As a result. such as unfunded pension liabilities). not just market cap and net debt Enterprise value should include all claims on the company. available at ubswarburg. This is important. associates. not just market capitalisation and net debt. or as a minimum at intrinsic value.com/research/gvg. otherwise a valuation multiple should be applied to earnings or net assets. 3. enterprise value multiples are more comparable among companies than equity multiples. December 1998 (reprinted November 2000). Minority shares in a subsidiary should be quoted at market value. at fair value ideally. 1: Enterprise Value. Treatment of Nonoperating and Noncore Assets Nonoperating assets are investments and other activities that do not form part of the firm’s trading (daytoday business) operations. as net debt is usually the largest component of EV after market capitalisation. Nonoperating associates should be deducted from total 6 For a more detailed discussion of issues involved in calculating enterprise value. This includes claims relating to deemed debt (provisions having the characteristics of interestbearing debt. Nonoperating assets typically include net cash balances. Quoted options should be valued at market and. usually. Debt should be adjusted to reflect market value. Seasonality EV should reflect an average level of net debt EV should reflect an average level of debt which is adjusted to reflect seasonal variations and for changes in the composition of the group. preferred shareholdings and minority interests. 2. Completeness EV should include all claims on the company. 6 Is enterprise value complete? Is enterprise value measured at market values? Does net debt reflect seasonal variations and changes in group composition? Have nonoperating and noncore assets been treated correctly? 1. Use of Market Values Enterprise value should include the value of claims at market.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Less distorted by noncore assets: EV multiples allow the exclusion of noncore assets. other investments and. see our report Valuation and Accounting Briefing No. where unquoted. 4. Potential Problems in Calculating EV EV calculations have pitfalls for the unwary s s s s A number of potential problems arise in the calculation of enterprise value. Income produced by noncore assets is not part of core EBIT. options. whereas the statistics used in equity multiples incorporate the net assets and earnings attributable to noncore assets. not book values. 26 UBS Warburg .
Typically there are few trading operations that would be treated as noncore. then associate profit must be included in EBIT when calculating EV/EBIT. typically operations to be divested or discontinued Noncore assets include both nonoperating assets plus any trading operations deemed to be noncore (see chart on page 25.600 (746) (99) 8. But if the associate profit included in EBIT is preinterest – this is not often available in accounts – then the parent share of associate net debt should be included in the parent’s enterprise value. estimated by applying a group earnings multiple to the group’s share of associate income).975 (212) 5. adjustments may be needed s But associates may straddle the operating/nonoperating line.755 (2. s s It is generally best to treat associates as nonoperating (excluded) assets… …but include associate profit if using total (not core) EV It is generally best to treat associates as nonoperating assets (effectively investments) in calculating operating and core enterprise value. If operating associates’ contributions are included. so a practical alternative is to use the parent share of pretax profit grossed up for estimated tax. We look at an example below. In calculating EBITDA multiples. the group’s share of associate depreciation and amortisation must be added back to EBITDA. However. this can lead to problems with multiples: If the postinterest profit of the associate is included in EBIT then the result is a mixed multiple.190 Nonoperating expenses must be examined: are they truly exceptional? Noncore operating assets tend to be few.600 + 395/(10.763 Notes EBIT in this example does not equal operating income Total EBIT must include share of pretax profit of associates 9.and postinterest earnings combined in the denominator.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 enterprise value at market value (if necessary. this figure is generally not available outside the UK. 27 UBS Warburg . Where associates are considered part of operating activities. But if total EV is used.33) = 10.761) 395 (414) 5. Ideally. This means excluding the associate share of profit from core and operating EBIT (thus the respective multiples are core EV/core EBIT and operating EV/operating EBIT). with both pre. these might be operations to be discontinued or divested. the parent share of associate preinterest operating profit should be included in total EBIT.) Nonoperating assets are a subset of noncore assets. Table 10: Associates Example – Nestlé Profit & Loss extract Operating income Net interest Nonoperating income/(expense) Profit before tax Taxation @ 33% Equity in net earnings of associates Goodwill amortisation Net income before minorities Minorities Net income Source: UBS Warburg FY 00 9.
generally EV/sales should not be used for companies with variable. Useful in identifying restructuring potential s s Caveats There are three caveats in using this multiple: s Sales volatility: EV/sales is frequently applied to technology firms. low profitability (low net margin) would result in a low value for a given level of sales. Be careful that the sales figure is representative. What is most important is that the denominator represent a flow to all claimants on enterprise cash flow.g) When to use it Crude but least susceptible to accounting differences s s EV/sales is a crude measure. As a proxy for cash flow. price to sales. sales has the virtue of being stable and relatively unaffected by accounting policies. But these companies frequently have highly volatile sales as well. EV/sales is also useful in identifying restructuring potential. Net margin is a key driver of this measure. EV/sales is useful when accounting differences among comparables are extreme. which are likely to have negative cash flow and/or earnings while they are in their initial growth phase. EV/Sales Definition: Core EV/sales. Formula: EV ROIC . It is frequently used for unprofitable or cyclical firms where there are problems in measuring profit or cash flow further down the P&L. but least susceptible to accounting differences.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Enterprise Value Multiples The multiple denominator must represent a flow to all claimants There are many different enterprise value multiples that can be calculated. Revenue recognition policies: Sales are not unaffected by accounting policies. such as property developers. Adjustments should be made to both enterprise value and the denominator where necessary (and possible) to ensure that apples are being compared with apples.T ) x M Sales ROIC x (WACC .g = x (1 . or where profit or cash flow figures are unrepresentative or negative. depending on the circumstances. where a company has no debt. it is equivalent to its equity counterpart. periodic sales. Sales can be substantially affected by different interpretations of accounting standards in such areas as: — Sales can be affected by accounting policies s Use of gross versus net revenue in recording sales on agency transactions Treatment of sales where a customer has the right of return Longterm contracts accounted for under percentage of completion or completed contract methods — — 28 UBS Warburg .
D) 1 1 = EBITDA ROIC x (WACC . Sales multiples cannot be directly compared across businesses where operating margins differ. see our report Valuation and Accounting Briefing No. available at ubswarburg. However. Its popularity stems from the fact that it is unaffected by differences in depreciation policy and appears unaffected by differences in capital structure. 3: EBITDA Multiples and Capital Intensity. interest. higher capital intensity results in a lower EV/EBITDA multiple. noncash changes in provisions and before reported exceptional items. Sales multiples cannot be compared where operating margins differ s Margin differences. while EBITDA is closer to cash flow than other profit measures it is not a true cash flow.T ) x ( . February 1999.g) When to use it s EBITDA is a proxy for operating cash flow.com/research/gvg. Formula: ROIC . tax. when making comparisons using this multiple. Rough comparability can be obtain by adjusting the sales multiple to (Benchmark company sales multiple) x (target company sales multiple) Benchmark company operating margin where the target company is the one being valued. whereas management can potentially add value through skilled tax management. EV/EBITDA is affected by a firm’s level of capital intensity (measured as depreciation as a percentage of EBITDA). EV/EBITDA Definition: Core EV/earnings before associates. 29 UBS Warburg . depreciation. All things being equal.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Care must be taken in ensuring that. and EV/EBITDA – probably the most popular EV multiple – is a price to cash flow multiple. sales are determined on a consistent basis. EBITDA is a pretax measure. amortisation. Also. 7 EBITDA does not include the cost of replacing capital s s 7 For further discussion.g EV x ( . as it does not incorporate either asset depreciation or capital expenditure.
30 UBS Warburg . in part reflecting the truly global nature of the oil and gas business. comparisons of a stock with a sector average can also be useful as long as there is not a large variation in capital intensity within the sector.5%. Use with comparables having similar levels of capital intensity s EV/EBITDA is most useful in comparing companies with a selected peer group that has a comparable level of capital intensity. Chart 17: European Oil Sector EV/EBITDA 15x 12x 9x 6x 3x 0x s s Chart 16: European Retail Sector EV/EBITDA 15x 12x 9x 6x 3x 0x 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Capital intensity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Capital intensity Source: UBS Warburg Source: UBS Warburg s EV/EBITDA multiples could be used for relative valuation of oil companies. we contrast the European retail and oil sectors. The more diverse retail sector displays a wide range of capital intensities. a WACC of 7. comparisons of a stock with the market. but without adjustment would be less meaningful for the retail sector. comparisons across sectors and comparisons of a sector with the market are unlikely to be meaningful. On the other hand. In the charts below. a 10year mediumterm growth period and a tax rate of 31%.5%.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Chart 15: Theoretical Relationship between EV/EBITDA and Capital Intensity EV/EBITDA 25x 20x 15x 10x 5x 0x 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Capital intensity 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Different medium term growth rates Source: UBS Warburg Note: These relationships were derived from the GVG target multiple model using an ROIC of 11. EV/operating free cash flow may be a more useful valuation multiple in this case (see page 32). whereas the oil sector displays a greater degree of homogeneity.
However. Use normalised EBITDA. s Note that the goodwill adjustment does not apply to financial statements reported under US GAAP. Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets. Second. tax is a real expense that cannot be affected by analytical adjustments. 31 UBS Warburg . however. as well as recent developments in accounting for goodwill under US GAAP. affected by accounting policy differences for depreciation. instead. The example below demonstrates how a simple depreciation adjustment would work. 8 8 For a detailed discussion of goodwill and its treatment in equity valuation. see our report Equity Analysis InsideOut No.T ) EBIT ROIC x (WACC . interest and taxes. Recentlypublished Financial Accounting Statement 142. stipulates that effective 1 January 2002 (for calendar year companies). this multiple may be defined as total EV/total EBIT (instead of core EV/core EBIT). s Most useful where comparables’ depreciation policies are similar s s Table 11: Adjusting EBIT for Differing Depreciation Policies Gross fixed assets Depreciable life Actual depreciation (no salvage) Normal depreciable life Normalised depreciation Excess depreciation 300 10 30 15 20 10 Unadjusted posttax EBIT Add back: excess depreciation Adjusted posttax EBIT 32 10 42 Source: UBS Warburg Note: We have not adjusted net profit for the ‘additional’ tax that theoretically would be paid as a result of lower depreciation expense. we believe that goodwill amortisation is not an economic charge and should properly be added back to operating profit. depreciation for tax purposes is typically calculated separately from book depreciation.com/research/gvg.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s EV/EBITDA cannot be used when current cash flow is negative. EV/EBIT is most useful where there are relatively small differences in accounting treatment of depreciation among comparables. you can normalise depreciation. Formula: EV ROIC . available at ubswarburg. EBIT is. Alternatively. associates. EBIT is a better measure of ‘free’ (postmaintenance capital spending) cash flow than EBITDA. EV/EBIT Definition: Core EV/core earnings before goodwill amortisation (but after amortisation of other intangibles).g) When to use it s EBIT is a postgoodwill figure. and is more comparable where capital intensities differ.g = x (1 . July 2001. goodwill is no longer to be amortised. First. 3: Goodwill in Equity Analysis. Alternatively. It is stated pre reported exceptional or extraordinary items. or a forward multiple.
g) 9 Stewart. III. However. OpFCF should be measured before goodwill amortisation. Harper Collins (1991). the calculation of NOPLAT introduces a measure of subjectivity. so this would normally equal expected inflation in working capital items). adjustment may be needed Equals: operating free cash flow Source: UBS Warburg Formula: EV ROIC . NOPLAT is often stated after adjustments to better reflect economic profit NOPLAT is posttax EBIT.g) When to use it s NOPLAT is a more sophisticated and complete form of EBIT that allows for differences in tax efficiency and effective tax rates. NOPLAT (or NOPAT) refers to EBI after adjustments to accounting profit to better reflect economic profit. investments and other) Per cash flow statement Estimated annual reinvestment requirement Estimated annual reinvestment requirement (working capital is current cost.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 EV/NOPLAT Definition: Core EV/normal operating profit less adjusted tax. The NOPLAT multiple is effectively a degeared PE and is a perfectly reasonable statistic to use provided it is measured on a consistent basis across companies. Quest for Value. OpFCF is core EBITDA less charges for capital usage and for the effect of inflation on working capital needs.g = x (1 − T ) OpFCF ROIC x (WACC . 9 Formula: EV ROIC . Some adjustments include adding back goodwill amortisation. and the adjustment of reported tax to a cash basis. implied interest expense on operating leases. NOPLAT would equal earnings. LIFO reserve increase. If the company were all equityfinanced. 32 UBS Warburg . as commonly used. increases in bad debt and capitalised R&D. ROIC is calculated using OpFCF in the numerator.B. G. Table 12: Components of Operating Free Cash Flow Item Earnings before interest and taxes Plus: depreciation Less: maintenance capital spending Less/plus: net working capital inflation Note Before noncore earnings (associates. This makes it harder to compare to other parties’ calculations of NOPLAT.g = NOPLAT ROIC x (WACC . EV/NOPLAT can be used as a substitute for EV/EBIT. Working capital is assumed to be at an appropriate level relative to sales. s EV/NOPLAT is equivalent to a degeared PE s EV/OpFCF Definition: Core EV/operating free cash flow (OpFCF). A calculation of operating free cash flow is shown below. However.
OpFCF is a suitable basis for valuation than either EBITDA or EBIT s s Multiples using OpFCF easier to interpret than those using free cash flow s s EV/Enterprise Free Cash Flow Definition: Core EV/normalised aftertax core enterprise free cash flow (or FCF. ROIC is calculated using aftertax FCF in the numerator. however. EV/OpFCF is preferable to EV/EBITDA for comparing companies within a sector. add another layer of subjectivity via the calculation of maintenance capital spending and net working capital inflation. This multiple cannot be used when current cash flow is negative. Use normalised OpFCF or a forwardpriced multiple instead. It may be used: s s s To pay interest or repay debt To build cash balances or other investments To pay dividends or buy back shares Free cash flow must be after tax and all investment expenditure needed to support the future cash flow forecast. it is a normalised EBIT or a smoothed cash flow. 33 UBS Warburg . Formula: EV 1 = FCF (WACC . however.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 When to use it s EV/OpFCF is a price to cash flow measure similar to EV/EBIT. OpFCF does. FCF = debt cash flow + equity cash flow. multiples using OpFCF can be easier to interpret than those using free cash flow.g) Enterprise Free Cash Flow FCF is the cash available to all providers of finance Enterprise free cash flow is the cash available to the providers of finance. and is therefore a more suitable basis for valuation multiples. as it does not include actual capital expenditure or change in working capital. OpFCF is more comparable than EBITDA and less susceptible to accounting distortions than EBIT. or for comparing companies across sectors or markets where companies have widely varying degrees of capital intensity. OpFCF is not a true cash flow. also known as free cash flow to the firm). for which historical figures can be highly volatile. Operating free cash flow is a smoothed measure of free cash flow to the firm. Because of this.
the transaction has a valuation impact. a company has made a substantial investment. because fluctuations in cash flow items can cause it to be highly volatile. However. This means that profit may be a better predictor of future cash flow than any single cash flow. capital spending and other noncash adjustments. for example. making EV/FCF a less useful multiple. Use of historic FCF can be problematic. Some transactions have operating and financing effects but no actual cash movement. The operating effect of a noncash transaction should be included in FCF even though there is no actual cash movement. typically this would involve equal and offsetting effective operating and financing flows. One underappreciated benefit of accounting is that the revenue/cost matching principle results in an allocation of costs and benefits. since only the operating cash flow is included in the valuation. Since cash flow may be more ‘lumpy’ (if. for example. however imperfectly. Some examples might include s s s s Share option schemes Capital (finance) leases Unfunded pensions Investment where the consideration is in securities Thus. the grant of share options to employees is a noncash transaction.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Table 13: Enterprise Free Cash Flow Calculation EBIT (normal operating profit) Tax on normal operating profit NOPLAT (normal operating profit less adjusted tax) Depreciation and amortisation Gross cash flow Capital expenditure Change in working capital Noncash changes in operating provisions Enterprise free cash flow Source: UBS Warburg X (X) X X X (X) (X)/X (X)/X X FCF Should Include Effective Cash Flows Some transactions result in effective cash flows that should be included in FCF Errors can arise if FCF only reflects strict cash movements. such a grant can be considered as two distinct cash flows: s s An operating cash outflow (representing employee compensation) A financing cash inflow (representing its reinvestment into share options) While the net cash flow is zero. When to use it s FCF is similar to OpFCF but is calculated using actual working capital changes. which will depress current cash flow). the user must be careful that it is representative or otherwise ‘normal’. Historical FCF can be problematic in valuation because of its volatility s s 34 UBS Warburg .
Return on total capital employed differs from return on invested capital in that the numerator for return on total capital employed includes income from noncore operating investments and other assets. provided the assumptions underlying the calculation are sensible. Note that invested capital measures only operating assets whereas net book value includes the value of the firm’s cash holdings. Because of its close linkage to return on capital. but NOPLAT does not.g Invested capital ROIC x (WACC . is the sum of net tangible and intangible assets and net working capital.g) s s Formula: When to use it Invested capital. Invested capital excludes noncore investments and other assets. intended to better approximate the cost of replacing the capital base at current prices and therefore the return on assets at market value. We prefer the use of a smoothed cash flow figure such as OpFCF. Replacement capital employed: Capital employed at replacement value.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Cash flow is better used – in fact is essential – in a discounted cash flow valuation because multiperiod cash flow is used instead of a point estimate. This can be roughly approximated by adding back accumulated depreciation in addition to making the other adjustments noted above. EV/Invested Capital Definition: core EV/invested capital. These adjustments (to assets. NOPLAT is in this respect a better indication of core profitability than net income. This is a useful measure for sectors where tangible assets are key. measured from the asset side of the balance sheet. it is useful to view this measure together with return on capital. LIFO reserve and cumulative writeoffs of special items. Alternative calculations are possible: s Total capital employed: Total capital employed is invested capital plus investments and associates. and to ensure comparability these must also be excluded from enterprise value. s 35 UBS Warburg . To ensure comparability. Stewart) include adding back accumulated goodwill amortisation. Adjusted capital employed: This is total capital employed adjusted to bring book capital closer to economic capital. unlike book value. excludes nonoperating cash s s The enterprise equivalent of price to book value.g ROIC . among others. enterprise value must also include the value of these assets. from Stern. Items included in EV and capital must be consistent Invested capital. Net income includes return on cash.g EV x ROIC or = WACC . ROIC . EV/invested capital is equal to EV/NOPLAT × ROIC (whereas price to book is equal to PE × ROE).
03) s s s Differences in perunit profitability will determine differences in valuation s s 36 UBS Warburg .Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Items included in invested capital or total capital employed must be consistent with items included in enterprise value. customer.g NOPLAT = x Unit ROIC x (WACC . These measures tell us nothing about the relative underlying profitability of the assets nor do they give any other clues about the drivers behind differences in value.12(.g ) Unit When to use it EV multiples can be used to compare crossborder implied market values of revenuegenerating units s s Enterprise value multiples are often used to compare the implied value of productive assets (eg tonnes of cement capacity. for example. customer that the market ascribes to the firm can then be compared to the amount of revenue or profit the customer generates. They do not tell us why the (unit of capacity. say. The way to gauge these differences is to estimate a fair EV per unit multiple by determining the sustainable NOPLAT per unit. etc) is valued as it is. A common variant is to look at the implied market value of each revenuegenerating unit such as subscribers. Ultimately.7 x US$10 = US$107 per tonne Tonne . Consider. This value can be compared to the cost of replacing the asset on a gross basis or after factoring in depreciation to adjust for the remaining life of the asset in use. fixed telephone lines) to enable comparison across firms operating within the same industry. Formula: EV ROIC .. There may be wide relative differences in EV per widget between companies – and these may be deserved. EV/Capacity Measure Definition: Core EV/units of capacity (such as tonnes of cement capacity) or another revenuegenerating unit (such as subscribers)..12 . nor what the appropriate value should be. Thus the value per. a cement firm with a return on capital of 12% growing at 3% pa.10 .03 = x US$10 = 10. the market value of a firm is determined not by the amount of capacity it has but by the economic value it creates. It if earns US$10 per tonne in operating profit than an investor with a required return on capital of 10% will be willing to pay up to US$107 per tonne of capacity: EV .
price per share/attributable earnings per share. Equity Multiples Price/Earnings Definition: Current market capitalisation/net income attributable to common shareholders or alternatively. both historical and forecast. earnings are unlikely to be representative. Use earnings before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation s s s s Gearing will affect the PE multiple s 37 UBS Warburg . use for comparisons of companies. Formula: Market cap ROE . Data availability is one reason why: earnings. Earnings are. All senior claims must have been deducted first. two companies with identical operating profit may have widely different earnings. Since shareholders are subordinate to all other claimants of the cash flow and assets of a business. however. sectors and markets that have similar accounting policies. or to use earnings before the most material distorting items such as depreciation and goodwill amortisation. are easily available. is the expression of the market value of equityholders’ stake in an enterprise.g) When to use it s The PE ratio is the most commonly used equity multiple (it was first introduced in the 1930s). any statistic used in an equity multiple must be one that represents residual profit. Equity multiples reflect residual claims As we have noted earlier. the statistic must relate to the value being measured. relative to a key statistic relating to that value.g = Net income ROE x (COE . Use this multiple when earnings are representative of future earnings and the trend in those earnings. use normalised earnings or calculate a forwardpriced multiple (see page 10). As an alternative. cash flow. As far as possible. One alternative approach is to use NOPLAT or taxadjusted earnings before interest. For example. if there are significant writeoffs in a year. Alternatives are to adjust earnings to a common basis across sectors and markets. assets or another residual measure. We recommend using adjusted earnings in calculating the ratio. UBS Warburg defines ‘adjusted’ earnings as earnings before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation. Different capital structures will affect multiples because of the gearing effect on earnings. subject to different accounting policies.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Section 5 Equity Multiples What Are Equity Multiples? An equity multiple. Use preexceptional or preextraordinary earnings instead. as the name suggests. Price to earnings multiples cannot be used when earnings are negative.
historical cash flow can be a very volatile. where those differences are material. the estimated capital structure can have a large impact on forecast earnings.g When to use it A useful measure where tangible assets are key s Price to book value is a useful measure where tangible assets are the source of value generation.g) Cashearnin gs When to use it s Cash earnings are usually defined as simply net profit plus depreciation & amortisation. This is a rough and frequently misleading measure of cash flow. changes in working capital and so forth.g ROE .g) COE . take this into account indirectly (see The Effect of Growth on Value.g Earnings = x Cash earnings ROE x (COE . Because of its close linkage to return on equity (price to book is PE multiplied by ROE). particularly in conjunction with multiples that are unadjusted for accounting differences between comparables.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s An important weakness of the PE ratio is that it does not explicitly take into account balance sheet risk (although it is implicitly incorporated into the underlying cost of equity10). price to cash earnings is difficult to use as a base valuation measure. Formula: Market cap ROE . As a result. Price to cash earnings should be used as a supplement to other measures. 10 The cost of equity is related to the degree of financial leverage through the equity beta: βequity = βasset + D E (βasset − βdebt ) 38 UBS Warburg . Formula: Market cap ROE . This problem is magnified when using prospective cash earnings. the PE ratio does not explicitly take into account the amount of investment required to support future growth. however. including changes in net debt. Furthermore.g = x ROE or Book value ROE x (COE . s s Best used as a supplement to other measures s Price/Book Value Definition: Market capitalisation/book value (alternatively price per share/book value per share). page 18). s Price/Cash Earnings Definition: Market capitalisation/net income attributable to common shareholders plus depreciation. because of the additional complications involved in forecasting changes in net debt. Furthermore. amortisation and changes in noncash provisions. as it ignores the many other factors that affect cash flow. it is useful to view price to book value together with ROE. You can.
especially banks.g = Growth 100 x g x ROE x (COE . book value should be adjusted for these differences. PEGs can be used for relative valuation in certain circumstances: PEGs most suitable for valuing highgrowth companies… s Notably. 11 Formula: PE ROE . Unfortunately. see our report Price Earnings Growth: A PEG for Your Valuations. etc s This ratio is most widely used in valuing financials. Some adjustments that might be made include: — s Book value should be adjusted to remove accounting distortions s Stripping out revaluation surpluses on the basis that it is more practical than attempting to revalue all comparables Restoring excess depreciation (or deducting inadequate depreciation) Restoring accumulated goodwill amortisation and writtenoff goodwill — — — Restoring the LIFO reserve. Price/Earnings Growth Definition: The ‘PEG’ ratio is the prospective PE divided by average forecast earnings growth. at higher rates of growth PEG ratios are stable and less sensitive to changes in growth than PE ratios (see chart below).g) When to use it The PEG is based on the assumption that a PE ratio is positively linearly correlated to the expected growth rate in earnings. which squeeze a small spread from a large base of assets (loans) and multiply that spread by utilising high levels of leverage (deposits). November 1997. For example. however. Book values are not directly comparable where accounting policies cause them to deviate markedly from economic substance. Return on equity is therefore an important criteria in valuing bank stocks. nor are they directly comparable among companies with differing accounting policies. there is no linear relationship between the PE ratio and earnings growth. Ideally.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Using this measure with industrial companies requires care because net assets are based on historical cost book value. Nevertheless. an unreliable indicator of economic value. book value would not be comparable between a company that revalues its assets (permitted under international accounting standards) and one that does not (revaluation is not permitted under US GAAP). ie PEG is constant. 39 UBS Warburg . It is most widely used to value growth companies where it is assumed that growth opportunities arise from reinvesting at a premium rate of return or from efficiency gains. which makes PEG ratios more suitable for valuing highgrowth companies – for which they are typically 11 For a more detailed discussion of PEG ratios.
(For PE ratios.) s s s One can also calculate enterprise value multiples to enterprise earnings growth. variation in PEG ratios increases.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 used. It is less suitable for comparisons of companies with sectors. Chart 18: Variation of PEG with Growth and ROE PEG ratio 10 8 6 4 2 0 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Earnings growth Source: UBS Warburg Note: Based on a COE of 12% PE ratio 35 PEG PEG PEG PE ROE=10% (lhs) ROE=20% (lhs) ROE=30% (lhs) ROE=30% (rhs) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10% …particularly within the same sector s This particularly applies to companies within sectors. As growth rates decline. sectors with markets and across sectors. the opposite is true. making it more suitable for intrasector PEG ratios. and can be compared to the market’s required yield to determine how a stock should be priced. companies with markets. The range of growth rates for which PEG valuations are suitable is also larger than that for PE ratios. The dividend yield is the market’s rate of capitalisation of cash paid out to investors. Use the ‘dividend multiple’ or (1/market required yield) s 40 UBS Warburg . making them less useful. variation in the PE rises with the growth rate. 1/market’s required dividend yield). Relative PEG valuations are best suited to companies with returns and growth rates close to the market. PEG ratios are most useful for comparisons of companies with valueadding growth as opposed to inflationary growth. s Dividends are the ultimate cash flow that the investor receives. Share value can be obtained by multiplying forecast dividends by the ‘dividend multiple’ (ie. Dividend Yield Definition: Forecast dividend/current market capitalisation. although this is uncommon.
however. When valuing a stock. When to use it Useful for estimating a floor value for a stock s Dividends are the ultimate ‘in pocket’ cash flow to investors. They are useful for estimating a floor value for a stock. Keep in mind. But dividend yields are not comparable across different tax regimes s 41 UBS Warburg . the sustainability of the dividend cash flow must also be considered. Thus nominal dividend yields are not comparable across different tax jurisdictions. since both dividends and market yields can be observed.Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 s Corporate financiers frequently use market dividend yield as a benchmark for capitalising dividends in order to estimate the appropriate value for a stock in an initial public offering. that actual dividends are subject to corporate dividend policy as well as withholding and franking tax policies.
The link between NOPLAT... use ROE instead of ROIC.g ) (1 + WACC)n 1 (1 + g )n x (1 .g ) .Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Appendix: Derivation of Target Multiple Formulas Valuation is a function of value drivers – growth. etc.. equity FCF instead of FCF.ubswarburg. 2 .D) + 1 x WACC (1 + WACC)n EV/EBIT Multiple EV ROIC . 1 The value (EV) of a perpetuity of cash flow (FCF) growing at a constant rate (g) and discounted at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC): EV = FCF1 (WACC .g EV = x 1 NOPLAT ROIC x (WACC .T) x (1 .. EV/Sales Multiple EV ROIC . The target multiple calculator model is available on our website: www..g (1 + g )n = x 1 EBITDA ROIC x (WACC . COE instead of WACC. return on capital..g (1 + g )n = x 1 Sales ROIC x (WACC . 3 42 UBS Warburg .T ) + x WACC (1 + WACC )n EV/NOPLAT Multiple (1 + g )n ROIC .g (1 + g )n = x 1 EBIT ROIC x (WACC .T ) x M + x WACC (1 + WACC)n EV/EBITDA Multiple EV ROIC ..g ) (1 + WACC)n (1 + g )n x (1 .com/research/gvg.g ) (1 + WACC )n (1 + g )n 1 + x WACC (1 + WACC )n ■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■ The Proof Each formula is based upon a standard DCF model which has a constant growth rate in free cash flow of g% for a period of ‘n’ years and a terminal value at the end of that period... investor required return. and earnings instead of NOPLAT). The following formulas show how value drivers can be used in a 2stage model to derive target enterprise value multiples (for equity multiples. FCF and the reinvestment rate (r): FCF = NOPLAT × (1 – r) The link between growth (g).. posttax return on invested capital (ROIC) and reinvestment rate (r): g = ROIC × r or r = g / ROIC ...g ) ( + WACC )n 1 1 (1 + g )n x (1 .
..g ) . 10 43 UBS Warburg ....Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 Formula 3 above can be modified to apply to a growing annuity of cash flows which stops after n years: n FCF1 1+ g x 1 WACC ... 9 Dividing by NOPLAT1 gives the formula for the EV/NOPLAT multiple: EV (ROIC .g ) (1 + g )n 1 x 1 ROIC x (WACC . Following rearrangement this becomes: EV = NOPLAT x (ROIC ...g ) (1 + WACC )n NOPLAT1 x (1 + g )n 1 x + WACC (1 + WACC )n EV = ..g ) (1 + g )n = x 1 NOPLAT 1 ROIC x (WACC ..... The overall value then becomes: NOPLAT1 x (ROIC .. 7 Formulae 1 and 2 can also be substituted into equation 4.. Equation 7 can be used to value subsequent cash flows.. 6 In calculating a terminal value at the end of the growth period.g ) (1 + WACC )n 1 (1 + g )n x + WACC (1 + WACC )n ... 4 Substituting equations 1 and 2 into 3 gives: g NOPLAT1 x 1 ROIC EV = (WACC .. it is assumed that ROIC equals WACC (ie conditions of zero valueadding growth).g ) ROIC x (WACC . 8 Putting it Together Equation 8 represents the value of cash flows in the growth period.g ) (1 + g )n x 1 ROIC x (WACC .g 1 + WACC n EV = ( ) ( ( ) ) ..... 5 .. although NOPLAT1 needs to be replaced by NOPLAT(n+1) and this ‘terminal value’ must be discounted to a present value.. Therefore equation 6 becomes: EV = NOPLAT1 WACC .g) and rearranging: EV = NOPLAT1 x (ROIC .g ) (1 + WACC)n ...
g EV x 1 = EBIT ROIC x (WACC .... This has no material effect on the multiples produced but does virtually ensure that the ‘divide by zero’ error will not arise.T) x M + x WACC (1 + WACC)n . 14 Substituting equations 13 into equation 14 gives the formula for the EV/EBITDA multiple: EV ROIC ..g (1 + g )n = x 1 Sales ROIC x (WACC .g ) (1 + WACC)n 1 (1 + g )n x (1 .g ) (1 + WACC)n 1 (1 + g )n x (1 .... 13 (1 + g )n ROIC .. However..Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 If the effective rate of corporation tax is T%...D) + x WACC (1 + WACC )n . 44 UBS Warburg ... the formula works for any values of WACC and g where these are different even if they are very close in value..T ) + x WACC (1 + WACC)n ....... 15 Substituting equations 11 into equation 14 gives the formula for the EV/sales multiple: EV ROIC . 11 .g ) (1 + WACC ) n 1 (1 + g )n x (1 . To avoid the ‘divide by zero’ problem the formula actually used in the GVG target multiple model have a very small number (0.0000001) added to the input value of g. even if the user happens to choose the same values for WACC and g.T ) x (1 . depreciation as a percentage of EBITDA is D% and the EBIT margin is M%.. then the following links can be derived: Sales × M = EBIT EBIT × (1 – T) = NOPLAT EBITDA × (1 – D) = EBIT Substituting equation 12 into equation 10 gives the formula for the EV/EBIT multiple: ... 12 .g (1 + g )n = x 1 EBITDA ROIC x (WACC .. 16 Note: In using these formula there is a problem where WACC is exactly the same as g as this produces a ‘divide by zero’ error.
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 45 UBS Warburg .
Valuation Multiples: A Primer November 2001 46 UBS Warburg .
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