The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters

Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q1. Is the United States on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Right track 31% 61% 12% 24% 26% 35% 55% 8% 30% 31% 29% 32% 32% 26% 39% Wrong direction 64% 33% 82% 72% 70% 58% 39% 89% 65% 62% 64% 63% 62% 69% 54% Don't know/No opinion 6% 7% 7% 3% 4% 7% 6% 3% 5% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% 7% I'm going to read the names of several people in public life and I'd like for you to tell me whether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each of the people I name. Q2. Kathy Hochul Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Favorable 52% 76% 36% 47% 44% 59% 85% 24% 54% 50% 47% 55% 54% 47% 56% Unfavorable 33% 12% 47% 37% 42% 25% 7% 60% 39% 29% 33% 33% 34% 34% 28% Don't know/No opinion 15% 12% 17% 15% 14% 16% 8% 16% 8% 20% 20% 11% 12% 18% 16% Q3. Chris Collins Party Total 48% 33% 19% Dem 24% 57% 19% Gender Ind/ Rep Other M 68% 45% 54% 17% 31% 29% 15% 24% 17% Region Age Niagara/ Under 55 and F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 42% 19% 80% 57% 41% 49% 47% 37% 62% 8% 38% 30% 28% 38% 20% 19% 12% 5% 29% 24% 15% Vote Choice Religion Cath 51% 38% 11% Prot Other 52% 32% 24% 40% 24% 28%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q4. Barack Obama Party Total Dem 42% 78% 56% 21% 2% 1% Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 19% 36% 36% 48% 75% 10% 42% 42% 43% 41% 42% 35% 59% 78% 61% 63% 49% 24% 88% 56% 56% 55% 56% 57% 62% 38% 3% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 3%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion Q5. Mitt Romney

Party Total Dem 51% 21% 44% 76% 5% 3%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion Q6. Kirsten Gillibrand

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 75% 50% 57% 45% 19% 85% 49% 52% 48% 53% 53% 56% 32% 21% 43% 41% 48% 77% 13% 46% 43% 46% 43% 43% 37% 62% 4% 7% 2% 7% 4% 2% 5% 5% 6% 4% 3% 6% 5%

Party Total 47% 35% 18% Dem 69% 16% 15% Rep 34% 47% 18%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion Q7. Wendy Long

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 39% 41% 52% 70% 25% 47% 47% 44% 49% 38% 42% 28% 13% 58% 37% 33% 35% 35% 23% 17% 20% 18% 17% 16% 20% 22% 16%

Religion Cath 50% 37% 13% Prot Other 41% 54% 36% 26% 23% 20%

Party Total 15% 14% 71% Dem 11% 14% 75% Rep 21% 13% 66%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 10% 16% 14% 10% 22% 15% 15% 13% 17% 17% 14% 14% 16% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 73% 70% 71% 74% 65% 71% 70% 72% 70%

Religion Cath 18% 17% 65% Prot Other 14% 12% 13% 13% 74% 75%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q8. Andrew Cuomo Party Total Dem 66% 77% 29% 19% 5% 5% Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 57% 69% 67% 66% 78% 55% 66% 66% 63% 69% 70% 62% 70% 40% 24% 30% 28% 18% 41% 30% 28% 33% 26% 27% 32% 25% 3% 7% 3% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 3% 6% 6%

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/No opinion

Q9. If the 2012 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Barack Obama on the Democratic line 41% 77% 15% 40% 35% 46% 75% 9% 42% 41% 42% 40% 40% 34% 58% Mitt Romney on the Republican line 53% 17% 80% 53% 59% 48% 19% 89% 54% 53% 54% 52% 54% 62% 33% Someone else 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% Not voting 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Don't know/No opinion 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5% 1% 4% 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 5% Q10. And if the election for U.S. Senator was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Kirsten Gillibrand on the Democratic line 49% 80% 27% 46% 44% 53% 82% 17% 49% 49% 47% 50% Wendy Long on the Republican line 40% 11% 63% 37% 47% 33% 10% 72% 40% 39% 40% 39% Someone else 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Not voting 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Don't know/No opinion 11% 9% 10% 15% 8% 14% 7% 12% 10% 11% 11% 11%

Religion Cath 49% 37% 0% 0% 14% Prot Other 44% 62% 48% 26% 0% 1% 0% 1% 9% 9%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q11. Looking at the issue of health care and the Federal health care legislation enacted two years ago, which of the following two choices is closest to your point of view: Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Although it may not go far enough, I'd like to see the health care reform legislation 40% 70% 19% 37% 38% 43% 68% 12% 40% 41% 42% 39% 37% 35% 59% fully implemented as soon as possible I'm in favor of repealing the health care 56% 23% 78% 61% 61% 52% 26% 86% 56% 56% 54% 57% 58% 62% 38% reform legislation Don't know/No opinion 4% 6% 3% 2% 2% 6% 6% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% Q12. President Obama has proposed eliminating the income tax cuts passed during the Bush Administration for taxpayers earning more than $250,000. Would you like to see those tax cuts eliminated or are you in favor of keeping those tax cuts in place? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Eliminated 50% 74% 31% 50% 49% 50% 75% 25% 49% 51% 54% 47% 46% 46% 68% Keep 47% 23% 64% 48% 49% 45% 23% 70% 50% 44% 42% 50% 52% 49% 30% Don't know/No opinion 4% 3% 5% 2% 2% 5% 2% 5% 2% 5% 4% 3% 3% 5% 2%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q13. Of the following issues, which single issue is the most important one you want your Member of Congress to be working on in Washington: Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Health care 13% 20% 10% 11% 10% 17% 16% 10% 10% 16% 12% 15% 13% 14% 13% Education 7% 11% 5% 6% 6% 9% 10% 4% 10% 5% 11% 5% 7% 7% 9% Jobs 40% 42% 41% 37% 39% 40% 42% 39% 41% 39% 42% 38% 41% 41% 38% Taxes 6% 4% 8% 5% 6% 6% 4% 8% 9% 4% 7% 6% 8% 5% 4% The federal budget deficit 25% 14% 31% 32% 31% 20% 17% 34% 23% 27% 25% 26% 22% 29% 27% The war in Afghanistan 6% 8% 4% 6% 5% 6% 9% 3% 5% 6% 3% 8% 8% 3% 6% Other 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% Don't know/No opinion 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Q14. Kathy Hochul is running for re-election to be a Member of Congress. As things stand now, would you vote to re-elect her or would you prefer someone else? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Re-elect Hochul 45% 75% 26% 40% 40% 50% 86% 12% 48% 44% 40% 50% 47% 41% 52% Prefer someone else 40% 16% 58% 42% 46% 35% 9% 72% 44% 38% 39% 41% 43% 41% 30% Don't know/No opinion 14% 9% 16% 18% 13% 15% 5% 16% 9% 19% 21% 10% 10% 18% 18% Q15. If the election for Member of Congress from the 27th Congressional District was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were: Party Gender Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Kathy Hochul on the Democratic line 45% 80% 21% 41% 39% 51% 47% 44% 42% 48% 49% 35% 57% Chris Collins on the Republican line 47% 12% 74% 47% 55% 39% 47% 46% 48% 46% 46% 55% 31% Not voting 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Don't know/No opinion 7% 6% 5% 11% 6% 7% 6% 8% 9% 5% 4% 8% 10%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q16. How likely would you say you are to vote for [CANDIDATE NAME]? Are you... Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Absolutely certain; there's no chance I will 49% 61% 50% 34% 49% 50% 52% 47% 58% 43% 37% 59% 53% 46% 47% change my mind Fairly certain; it's unlikely I will change my 33% 29% 35% 35% 35% 31% 27% 38% 28% 37% 38% 29% 33% 35% 29% mind Not very certain; I very well may change my 12% 7% 10% 21% 11% 12% 13% 11% 10% 13% 17% 8% 9% 12% 18% mind Not certain at all; there's a good chance I 6% 4% 5% 10% 5% 7% 8% 3% 4% 7% 8% 4% 5% 7% 6% will change my mind Don't know/No opinion 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Q17. Have you seen or heard any commercials for Kathy Hochul or been contacted by the Hochul campaign? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Total Dem Rep Other M Seen or heard Hochul commercial 24% 25% 24% 23% 21% 27% 26% 22% 27% 22% 20% 27% 25% 26% 18% Been contacted by the Hochul campaign 6% 10% 4% 5% 3% 9% 8% 5% 5% 7% 4% 8% 6% 5% 9% Both 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 6% 7% 8% 6% 8% 4% 9% 7% 6% 7% Neither 62% 57% 64% 64% 67% 57% 58% 65% 61% 62% 70% 55% 60% 62% 65% Don't know/No opinion 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q18. Have you seen or heard any commercials for Chris Collins or been contacted by the Collins campaign? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Seen or heard Collins commercial 21% 21% 23% 19% 21% 21% 20% 22% 23% 19% 16% 24% 20% 20% 23% Been contacted by the Collins campaign 4% 1% 7% 1% 4% 4% 2% 5% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 1% Both 6% 4% 7% 7% 5% 7% 8% 5% 10% 3% 5% 7% 8% 5% 3% Neither 69% 73% 63% 73% 70% 68% 69% 68% 62% 74% 75% 64% 68% 70% 72% Don't know/No opinion 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% On each of the following issues, I'd like you to tell me who you think would do a better job representing you in the United States Congress. Q19. Health Care Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Kathy Hochul 42% 77% 20% 36% 38% 47% 85% 7% 47% 39% 38% 46% Chris Collins 44% 11% 69% 46% 52% 38% 6% 85% 46% 43% 45% 44% Don't know/No opinion 13% 12% 11% 18% 11% 16% 9% 8% 7% 18% 17% 10% Q20. Education Party Total 47% 37% 16% Dem 77% 11% 12% Rep 26% 59% 15% Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 45% 45% 50% 83% 16% 49% 46% 47% 48% 36% 44% 31% 6% 71% 43% 33% 35% 39% 19% 12% 19% 10% 13% 8% 21% 18% 14% Religion Cath 52% 37% 11% Prot Other 36% 59% 43% 25% 21% 16%

Religion Cath 46% 45% 9% Prot Other 32% 55% 51% 28% 17% 17%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q21. Jobs Party Total 41% 48% 11% Dem 72% 17% 10% Rep 19% 71% 10% Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 39% 37% 45% 81% 6% 44% 39% 38% 44% 45% 31% 53% 49% 57% 40% 11% 88% 52% 45% 47% 49% 48% 55% 34% 12% 6% 15% 7% 6% 4% 16% 15% 7% 7% 14% 13%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion Q22. Taxes

Party Total 39% 49% 12% Dem 69% 20% 11% Rep 18% 71% 11%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion Q23. Federal budget deficit

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 37% 35% 42% 79% 5% 42% 37% 35% 42% 41% 30% 52% 48% 57% 41% 12% 89% 52% 47% 49% 49% 50% 52% 37% 15% 7% 17% 9% 6% 6% 17% 16% 9% 9% 17% 11%

Party Total 35% 52% 13% Dem 65% 24% 11% Rep 16% 71% 13%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion Q24. The war in Afghanistan

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 27% 30% 39% 71% 3% 34% 35% 29% 39% 55% 61% 44% 19% 89% 58% 47% 53% 51% 18% 9% 17% 10% 8% 7% 18% 19% 9%

Religion Cath 37% 53% 10% Prot Other 27% 44% 55% 42% 18% 14%

Party Total 42% 37% 22% Dem 69% 14% 17% Rep 22% 56% 22%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion

Gender Vote Choice Region Age Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older 41% 40% 43% 79% 10% 46% 39% 40% 43% 34% 41% 33% 7% 70% 39% 35% 36% 37% 25% 19% 24% 14% 20% 16% 26% 24% 20%

Religion Cath 43% 38% 19% Prot Other 32% 56% 44% 19% 24% 24%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9% Q25. Representing the interests of our community in Washington Party Total 46% 42% 12% Dem 77% 13% 10% Rep 25% 63% 12% Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other 41% 42% 49% 88% 8% 50% 43% 41% 49% 50% 36% 55% 44% 48% 36% 6% 82% 46% 39% 41% 43% 43% 46% 28% 15% 10% 15% 6% 10% 4% 18% 18% 8% 7% 17% 16%

Kathy Hochul Chris Collins Don't know/No opinion

Q26. Currently the Republicans have a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Every seat is up for election in November. Would you like to see the Republicans retain control of the House or would you prefer to see the Democrats take control of the house? Party Gender Vote Choice Region Age Religion Ind/ Niagara/ Under 55 and Total Dem Rep Other M F Hochul Collins Erie All others 55 older Cath Prot Other Republicans 54% 17% 83% 54% 61% 47% 16% 92% 53% 54% 55% 52% 51% 65% 38% Democrats 40% 78% 13% 37% 34% 46% 77% 6% 43% 38% 39% 41% 42% 31% 56% Don't know/No opinion 6% 5% 4% 9% 5% 7% 7% 2% 4% 7% 5% 7% 7% 4% 6%

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The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll August 12-14, 2012 628 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 MOE +/- 3.9%

Nature of the Sample New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27 Party Democrat Republican Independent/Other Region Erie Niagara/All others Religion Catholic Protestant Other Age Under 55 55 and older Gender Male Female

32% 41% 26% 42% 58% 44% 35% 19% 44% 56% 47% 53%

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