STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

Test on One Population It was believed that scores of STAT 166 students in the first long exam is 68, on the average. A random sample of 15 students in this semesters enrollees was selected and the following were their scores: 68, 40, 36, 57, 60, 69, 64, 56, 54, 66, 60, 67, 63, 62, and 70. Is there reason to believe that on the average, the exam score of STAT 166 students this semester is still 68? Use = 5%. TEST FOR NORMALITY Ho: The data on the exam scores is normally distributed. Ha: The data on the exam scores is not normally distributed. Test Procedure: Wilk-Shapiro test Test Statistic: W Decision Rule: Reject Ho if p-value < =0.05. Otherwise, fail to reject Ho. Computation: (see STATA output) P-value=0.01695 Decision: since p-value=0.01695<0.05, we reject H0 Conclusion: At =0.05, we have sufficient evidence to say that the data on the exam scores is not normally distributed.

STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

***Since the data is not normally distributed, we proceed using nonparametric test Let Md = average exam score H0: Md = 68 Ha: Md 68 Test Procedure: Sign test at =0.05 Test Statistic: c Decision Rule: Reject Ho if p-value < 0.05, Otherwise, fail to reject Ho. Computations: scores median
68 40 36 57 60 69 64 56 54 66 60 67 63 62 70 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 Score-median 0 -28 -32 -11 -8 1 -4 -12 -14 -2 -8 -1 -5 -6 2

Positive differences c=no. of positive differences=2 n=sample size=15

n=no. of non-zero differences=14

STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

p-value=2*min (P X c ,P X c )
================================

P "X 2$=P "X=0$ + P "X=1$ + P "X=2$ # % # % # % # % & ) & ) & ) 14 + 0.50 1-0.5 140 + ( 14 + 0.51 1-0.5 141 + ( 14 + 0.52 1-0.5 142 =( ' 1 * ' 2 * ' 0 *

= 6.1035X1005 + 0.000854 + 0.00555 P "X 2$ = 0.00647 # %

P X 2 =P X=2 + P X=3 + ... + P X=14 = 1 P X<2 = 1 {P X=0 + P X=1} 14 14 14 0 14 1 = 1 0.50 (1-0.5 ) + 0.51 (1-0.5 ) 0 1 = 1 6.1035X10 05 + 0.000854

================================

P X 2 = 1 0.0009156 = 0.9990844
================================

p-value=2*min P "X c$ ,P "X c$ # % # %

)
)

=2*min 0.00647,0.9990844 =2* 0.00647 p-value=0.01294

(STATA Command: signtest scores=68) Decision: Since p-value=0.01294< 0.05, Reject Ho

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STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

Conclusion: we have sufficient evidence to say that the average exam score of STAT166 student this semester is not 68. Assume that the data satisfies the assumptions for a parametric test. Let = average exam score H0: = 68 Ha: 68 Test Procedure: t-test at =0.05 Test Statistic: tc Decision Rule: Reject Ho if | tc |< t0.025 (15-1) =2.145, Otherwise, fail to reject Ho. x o 59.4667 68 tc = = Computation: 99.4095 s2 15 n 8.5333 tc = = 3.3148 2.5744 (STATA Command: ttest scores=68) Decision: Since |-3.3148|< > 2.145 or p-value=0.0051< 0.05, we reject Ho Conclusion: at =5%, we have sufficient evidence to say that the average exam score of STAT166 student this semester is not 68.
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STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

Test on One population Proportion Ho: P = Po i) Ha: P Po ii) Ha: P > Po iii) Ha: P < Po Assumption: The shape of the distribution is approximately normal for large samples, i.e., nP(1 - P) > 3. Test Statistic: Zc ~ N(0, 1) under Ho Z c =
P Po

vs

Po (1 Po ) n

Decision rule: Reject Ho if

i) |Zc| > Z/2 OR p-value < ii) Zc > Z OR p-value/2 < iii) Zc < Z OR p-value/2 < Otherwise, fail to reject Ho.

STAT 166: STATISTICS FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES Exercise: Test of Hypothesis on One Population

Example: A manufacturer claims that at least 99% of the equipments she supplies to a factory conform to specifications. An examination of a sample of 350 pieces of equipment revealed that 5 were out specifications. Test her claim at =1% Let P = proportion of equipments that conform to specification Ho: P 0.99 Ha: P < 0.99 Test Procedure: One-tailed Z-test at =0.01 Test Statistic: Z = P Po
c

Decision Rule: Reject Ho if Zc < - Z0.01=-2.333 Otherwise, fail to reject Ho.

Computation: P = 345 350 = 0.9857
Zc = P Po Po (1 Po ) n = 0.9857 0.99 0.99 (1 0.99 ) 350 = 0.00429 = 0.8058 0.005318

Po (1 Po ) n

Decision: Since Zc=-0.8058> -2.333, we fail to Reject Ho Conclusion: We have sufficient evidence to say that the proportion of equipments that conform to specification is at least 99%.
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