TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Global Strategy Group CT 05 Survey Results August 27, 2012

The results of our survey of likely voters in Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District show the district to be a likely hold for Democrats – with Democrat Elizabeth Esty leading Republican Andrew Roraback by 9 points.

   If the election for Congress was today, 44% of likely voters say they would vote for Elizabeth Esty, while 35% would vote for Andrew Roraback. The district is primed to vote for a Democrat, with a generic Democratic candidate for Congress beating a generic Republican candidate by 10 points, 48% to 38%. After voters are read positive profiles of both Esty and Roraback, Esty’s lead expands to 15 points, 53% to 38%.
Democrat Elizabeth Esty has earned a reputation as a tireless advocate for the middle class. She has a plan to reinvigorate manufacturing and promote the clean energy industry to create jobs. She supports ending the Bush tax cuts for millionaires, closing tax loopholes and ending government subsidies for oil companies. As a town council member, she ensured that budget surpluses were used to pay down debt and established a Rainy Day Fund. In the legislature, she cut her own pay 10 percent and supports a 5 percent pay cut in Congress and no pay raises until the budget is balanced. She has a long record of advocacy for pro-choice causes and supported gay marriage. Republican Andrew Roraback is a common sense leader and proven fiscal conservative who knows Congress must seriously address spending now to avoid leaving our children and grandchildren a crushing debt. He has the courage to make hard choices to balance the budget and will vote to repeal Obamacare. Roraback led efforts to stop the largest tax hike in Connecticut's history and he supports tax reform and other pro-growth policies that will spur the creation of new jobs in the private sector. Roraback will always put Connecticut first and knows that means supporting common-sense conservation efforts, comprehensive immigration reform, and a woman's right to choose.

  This memorandum summarizes results from a live telephone poll of 402 randomly selected likely voters in Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District conducted August 21-23, 2012. The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.



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