the atlas of

M a p p i n g p a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
t o p r o s p e r i t y
Hausmann, Hidalgo et al.

the atlas of
M a p p i n g p a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
t o p r o s p e r i t y
Hausmann, Hidalgo et al.

THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXIT Y
MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY

AUTHORS: Ricardo Hausmann | César A. Hidalgo | Sebastián Bustos | Michele Coscia Sarah Chung | Juan Jimenez | Alexander Simoes | Muhammed A. Yıldırım ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The research on which this Atlas is based began around 2006 with the idea of the product space. In the original paper published in Science in 2007, we collaborated with Albert-Laszlo Barabasi and Bailey Klinger. The view of economic development of countries as a process of discovering which products a country can master, a process we called self-discovery, came from joint work with Dani Rodrik and later also with Jason Hwang. We explored different implications of the basic approach in papers with Dany Bahar, Bailey Klinger, Robert Lawrence, Francisco Rodriguez, Dani Rodrik, Charles Sabel, Rodrigo Wagner and Andrés Zahler. Throughout, we received significant feedback and advice from Lant Pritchett, Andrés Velasco and Adrian Wood. We want to thank the dedicated team that runs Harvard’s Center for International Development (CID) for helping bring the Atlas to life: Marcela Escobari, Jennifer Gala, Irene Gandara Jones, Aimee Fox, Adriana Hoyos, Andrea Carranza, Anne Morriss and Catalina Prieto. We are also indebted to the NeCSys team at the MIT Media Lab and to Sandy Sener. We thank the leadership at Harvard Kennedy School and the MIT Media Lab who were early enthusiasts of our work. The editorial design of this book was produced by DRAFT. We would like to especially acknowledge the contributions of Francisca Barros and Beltrán García. ISBN-10: 0615546625 ISBN-13: 9780615546629

the atlas of
M a p p i n g p a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY
t o p r o s p e r i t y

| Ricardo Hausmann | César A. Hidalgo | Sebastián Bustos | Michele Coscia | | Sarah Chung | Juan Jimenez | Alexander Simoes | Muhammed A. Yıldırım |

p r e F a C e

O

ver the past two centuries, mankind has accomplished what used to be unthinkable. When we look back at our long list of achievements, it is easy to focus on the most audacious of them, such as our conquest of the skies and the moon. Our lives, however, have been made easier and more prosperous by a large number of more modest, yet crucially important feats. Think of electric bulbs, telephones, cars, personal computers, antibiotics, TVs, refrigerators, watches and water heaters. Think of the many innovations that benefit us despite our minimal awareness of them, such as advances in port management, electric power distribution, agrochemicals and water purification. This progress was possible because we got smarter. During the past two centuries, the amount of productive knowledge we hold expanded dramatically. This was not, however, an individual phenomenon. It was a collective phenomenon. As individuals we are not much more capable than our ancestors, but as societies we have developed the ability to make all that we have mentioned – and much, much more. Modern societies can amass large amounts of productive knowledge because they distribute bits and pieces of it among its many members. But to make use of it, this knowledge has to be put back together through organizations and markets. Thus, individual specialization begets diversity at the national and global level. Our most prosperous modern societies are wiser, not because their citizens are individually brilliant, but because these societies hold a diversity of knowhow and because they are able to recombine it to create a larger variety of smarter and better products.

The social accumulation of productive knowledge has not been a universal phenomenon. It has taken place in some parts of the world, but not in others. Where it has happened, it has underpinned an incredible increase in living standards. Where it has not, living standards resemble those of centuries past. The enormous income gaps between rich and poor nations are an expression of the vast differences in productive knowledge amassed by different nations. These differences are expressed in the diversity and sophistication of the things that each of them makes, which we explore in detail in this Atlas. Just as nations differ in the amount of productive knowledge they hold, so do products. The amount of knowledge that is required to make a product can vary enormously from one good to the next. Most modern products require more knowledge than what a single person can hold. Nobody in this world, not even the saviest geek nor the most knowledgeable entrepreneur knows how to make a computer. He has to rely on others who know about battery technology, liquid crystals, microprocessor design, software development, metallurgy, milling, lean manufacturing and human resource management, among many other skills. That is why the average worker in a rich country works in a firm that is much larger and more connected than firms in poor countries. For a society to operate at a high level of total productive knowledge, individuals must know different things. Diversity of productive knowledge, however, is not enough. In order to put knowledge into productive use, societies need to reassemble these distributed bits through teams, organizations and markets. Accumulating productive knowledge is difficult. For the

most part, it is not available in books or on the Internet. It is embedded in brains and human networks. It is tacit and hard to transmit and acquire. It comes from years of experience more than from years of schooling. Productive knowledge, therefore, cannot be learned easily like a song or a poem. It requires structural changes. Just like learning a language requires changes in the structure of the brain, developing a new industry requires changes in the patterns of interaction inside an organization or society. Expanding the amount of productive knowledge available in a country involves enlarging the set of activities that the country is able to do. This process, however, is tricky. Industries cannot exist if the requisite productive knowledge is absent, yet accumulating bits of productive knowledge will make little sense in places where the industries that require it are not present. This “chicken and egg” problem slows down the accumulation of productive knowledge. It also creates important path dependencies. It is easier for countries to move into industries that mostly reuse what they already know, since these industries require adding modest amounts of productive knowledge. By gradually adding new knowledge to what they already know, countries economize on the chicken and egg problem. That is why we find empirically that countries move from the products that they already create to others that are “close by” in terms of the productive knowledge that they require. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge that each country holds. Our measure of productive knowledge can account for the enormous income differences between the nations of the world and has the capacity to predict the rate at which countries

will grow. In fact, it is much more predictive than other wellknown development indicators, such as those that attempt to measure competitiveness, governance and education. A central contribution of this Atlas is the creation of a map that captures the similarity of products in terms of their knowledge requirements. This map provides paths through which productive knowledge is more easily accumulated. We call this map, or network, the product space, and use it to locate each country, illustrating their current productive capabilities and the products that lie nearby. Ultimately, this Atlas views economic development as a social learning process, but one that is rife with pitfalls and dangers. Countries accumulate productive knowledge by developing the capacity to make a larger variety of products

of increasing complexity. This process involves trial and error. It is a risky journey in search of the possible. Entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers play a fundamental role in this economic exploration. By providing rankings, we wish to clarify the scope of the achievable, as revealed by the experience of others. By tracking progress, we offer feedback regarding current trends. By providing maps, we do not pretend to tell potential explorers where to go, but to pinpoint what is out there and what routes may be shorter or more secure. We hope this will empower these explorers with valuable information that will encourage them to take on the challenge and thus speed up the process of economic development.

RicaRdo Hausmann
Director, Center for International Development at Harvard University, Professor of the Practice of Economic Development, Harvard Kennedy School, George Cowan Professor, Santa Fe Institute.

césaR a. Hidalgo
ABC Career Development Professor, MIT Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Faculty Associate, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

We thank the many individuals who, early on, understood the potential impact of research on economic growth, and shared our team’s vision. The generosity of these supporters made this work feasible and now makes it available to individuals, organizations and governments throughout the world.

THe auTHoRs wanT To acknowledge THe geneRous suppoRT of:

| Alejandro Santo Domingo | MPower Foundation | Standard Bank | Anonymous Donor |

C o n t e n t s

PA R T 1
12 17 24 30 41 53 56

What, WhY aND hoW?
SECTION 1 SECTION 2 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 SECTION 5 SECTION 6 SECTION 7 What Do We Mean by Economic Complexity? How Do We Measure Economic Complexity? Why Is Economic Complexity Important? How Is Complexity Different from Other Approaches? How Does Economic Complexity Evolve? How Can This Atlas Be Used? Which Countries Are Included in This Atlas?

PA R T 2
60 66 72 78 84

CoMPleXItY RaNKINGs
RANKING 1 RANKING 2 Economic Complexity Index Expected Growth in Per Capita GDP to 2020 RANKING 3 Expected GDP Growth to 2020 RANKING 4 Change in Economic Complexity (1964-2008)

RANKING 5 Expected Contribution to World GDP Growth to 2020

PA R T 3
92 96 350 ···

CoUNtRY PaGes
How to Read the Country Pages Albania Zimbabwe

PA R T 1

What, WhY aND hoW?

SEC T I O N 1
What Do We Mean by Economic Complexity?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 15

hat are things made out of? One way of describing the economic world is to say that things are made with machines, raw materials and labor. Another way is to emphasize that products are made with knowledge. Consider toothpaste. Is toothpaste just some paste in a tube? Or do the paste and the tube allow us to access knowledge about the properties of sodium fluoride on teeth and about how to achieve its synthesis? The true value of a tube of toothpaste, in other words, is that it manifests knowledge about the chemicals that facilitate brushing, and that kill the germs that cause bad breath, cavities and gum disease. When we think of products in these terms, markets take on a different meaning. Markets allow us to access the vast amounts of knowledge that are scattered among the people of the world. Toothpaste embeds our knowledge about the chemicals that prevent tooth decay, just like cars embody our knowledge of mechanical engineering, metallurgy, electronics and design. Computers package knowledge about information theory, electronics, plastics and graphics, whereas apples embody thousands of years of plant domestication as well as knowledge about logistics, refrigeration, pest control, food safety and the preservation of fresh produce. Products are vehicles for knowledge, but embedding knowledge in products requires people who possess a working understanding of that knowledge. Most of us can be ignorant about how to synthesize sodium fluoride because we can rely on the few people who know how to create this

W

atomic cocktail, and who together with their colleagues at the toothpaste factory, can deposit it into a product that we can use. We owe to Adam Smith the idea that the division of labor is the secret of the wealth of nations. In a modern reinterpretation of this idea, the division of labor is what allows us to access a quantity of knowledge that none of us would be able to hold individually. We rely on dentists, plumbers, lawyers, meteorologists and car mechanics to sustain our standard of living, because few of us know how to fill cavities, repair leaks, write contracts, predict the weather or fix our cars. Many of us, however, can get our cavities filled, our cars repaired and our weather predicted. Markets and organizations allow the knowledge that is held by few to reach many. In other words, they make us collectively wiser. The amount of knowledge embedded in a society, however, does not depend mainly on how much knowledge each individual holds. It depends, instead, on the diversity of knowledge across individuals and on their ability to combine this knowledge, and make use of it, through complex webs of interaction. A hunter-gatherer in the Arctic must know a lot of things to survive. Without the knowledge embedded in an Inuit, most of us would die in the Arctic, as has been demonstrated by the number of Westerners who have tried and failed. Yet, the total amount of knowledge embedded in a hunter-gatherer society is not very different from that which is embedded in each one of its members. The secret of modern societies is not that each person holds much more productive knowledge than those in a more traditional society. The secret to modernity is that we collectively use large volumes of knowledge, while each one of us holds only

a few bits of it. Society functions because its members form webs that allow them to specialize and share their knowledge with others. We can distinguish between two kinds of knowledge: explicit and tacit. Explicit knowledge can be transferred easily by reading a text or listening to a conversation. Yesterday’s sports results, tomorrow’s weather forecast or the size of the moon can all be learned quickly by looking them up in a newspaper or on the web. And yet, if all knowledge had this characteristic, the world would be very different. Countries would catch up very quickly to frontier technologies, and the income differences across the world would be much smaller than what we see today. The problem is that crucial parts of knowledge are tacit and therefore hard to embed in people. Learning how to fix dental problems, speak a foreign language, or run a farm requires a costly and time-consuming effort. As a consequence, it does not make sense for all of us to spend our lives learning how to do everything. Because it is hard to transfer, tacit knowledge is what constrains the process of growth and development. Ultimately, differences in prosperity are related to the amount of tacit knowledge that societies hold. Because embedding tacit knowledge is a long and costly process, we specialize. This is why people are trained for specific occupations and why organizations become good at specific functions. To fix cavities you must be able to identify them, remove the decayed material and replace it. To play

baseball, you must know how to catch, field and bat, but you do not need to know how to give financial advice or fix cavities. On the other hand, to perform the function of baseball player, knowing how to catch a ball is not enough (you must also be able to field and bat). In other words, in allocating productive knowledge to individuals, it is important that the chunks each person gets be internally coherent so that he or she can perform a certain function. We refer to these modularized chunks of embedded knowledge as capabilities. Some of these capabilities have been modularized at the level of individuals, while others have been grouped into organizations and even into networks of organizations. For example, consider what has happened with undergraduate degrees, which in the US take four years of study. This norm has remained constant for the last four centuries. During the same period, however, knowledge has expanded enormously. The university system did not respond to the increase in knowledge by lengthening the time it takes to get a college degree. Instead, it increased the diversity of degrees. What used to be a degree in philosophy, split into several branches, one being natural philosophy, which later split into physics, chemistry and biology and later into other disciplines such as ecology, earth sciences and psychology. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Standard Occupation Classification for 2010 lists 840 different occupations, including 78 in healthcare, 16 in engineering, 35 kinds of scientists – in coarse categories such as “economists”, “physicists” and

“chemists” – five types of artists, and eight kinds of designers. We can all imagine a much more nuanced classification in our respective fields. For instance, we could distinguish between economists that specialize in labor, trade, finance, development, industrial organization, macro and econometrics, among others. If we did this further disaggregation for all occupations, we would easily go into the tens of thousands. The only way that society can hold all of the knowledge we have is by distributing coherent pieces of it among individuals. It is the way the world adapts to expanding knowledge. Most products, however, require more knowledge than can be mastered by any individual. Hence, those products require that individuals with different capabilities interact. Assume that a person has the capacity to hold an amount of tacit knowledge equal to one personbyte. How can you make a product that requires 100 different personbytes? Obviously, it cannot be made by a micro-entrepreneur working on her own. It has to be made either by an organization with at least 100 individuals (with a different personbyte each), or by a network of organizations that can aggregate these 100 personbytes of knowledge. How can a society hold a kilo-, mega- or giga-personbyte? Only through a deep division of labor, in which individuals become experts in small pieces of the available knowledge and then aggregate their personbytes into peoplebytes through organizations and markets. For example, to make a shirt you need to design it, pro-

cure the fabric, cut it, sew it, pack it, brand it, market it and distribute it. In a firm that manufactures shirts, expertise in each of these knowledge chunks will be held by different people. And shirts require all of them. Moreover, you need to finance the operation, hire the relevant people, coordinate all the activities and negotiate everybody’s buy-in, which in itself require different kinds of knowhow. We can say that putting together this operation requires know-who and know-where. Know-who can be thought of as knowledge of who has the requisite chunks of knowledge, and know-where as knowledge of where the people and organizations that have this knowledge are located. To make shirts, you can import the fabric and access the knowledge about looms and threading that is embedded in a piece of cloth. Yet some of the knowledge required cannot be accessed through shipped inputs. The people with the relevant knowledge must be near the place where shirts are made. In fact, just as knowhow is modularized in people in the form of individual capabilities, larger amounts of knowhow are modularized in organizations, and networks of organizations, as organizational or collective capabilities. For example, to operate a garment plant you need power and water. You need to be able to move raw materials in and ship the final product out. Workers need access to urban transportation, day care centers and health facilities. To be able to operate, the plant manager needs all of these services to be locally available. This implies that others must be aggre-

18 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

gating the personbytes required to generate power, provide clean water, and run a transportation system. The relevant capabilities to perform all of these functions reside in organizations that are able to package the relevant knowledge into transferable bundles. These are bundles of knowhow that are more efficiently organized separately and transferred as intermediate inputs. We can think of these bundles as organizational capabilities the manufacturer needs. Ultimately, the complexity of an economy is related to the multiplicity of useful knowledge embedded in it. For a complex society to exist, and to sustain itself, people who know about design, marketing, finance, technology, human resource management, operations and trade law must be able to interact and combine their knowledge to make products. These same products cannot be made in societies that are missing parts of this capability set. Economic complexity, therefore, is expressed in the composition of a country’s productive output and reflects the structures that emerge to hold and combine knowledge. Knowledge can only be accumulated, transferred and preserved if it is embedded in networks of individuals and organizations that put this knowledge into productive use. Knowledge that is not used, however, is also not transferred, and will disappear once the individuals and organization

that have it retire or die. Said differently, countries do not simply make the products and services they need. They make the ones they can. To do so, they need people and organizations that possess relevant knowledge. Some goods, like medical imaging devices or jet engines, embed large amounts of knowledge and are the results of very large networks of people and organizations. By contrast, wood logs or coffee, embed much less knowledge, and the networks required to support these operations do not need to be as large. Complex economies are those that can weave vast quantities of relevant knowledge together, across large networks of people, to generate a diverse mix of knowledge-intensive products. Simpler economies, in contrast, have a narrow base of productive knowledge and produce fewer and simpler products, which require smaller webs of interaction. Because individuals are limited in what they know, the only way societies can expand their knowledge base is by facilitating the interaction of individuals in increasingly complex webs of organizations and markets. Increased economic complexity is necessary for a society to be able to hold and use a larger amount of productive knowledge, and we can measure it from the mix of products that countries are able to make.

SECTION 2
How Do We Measure Economic Complexity?

20 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

H

ow do we go from what a country makes to what a country knows? If making a product requires a particular type and mix of knowledge, then the countries that make the product reveal having the requisite knowledge (see Technical Box 2.1). From this simple observation, it is possible to extract a few implications that can be used to construct a measure of economic complexity. First, countries whose residents and organizations possess more knowledge have what it takes to produce a more diverse set of products. In other words, the amount of embedded knowledge that a country has is expressed in its productive diversity, or the number of distinct products that it makes. Second, products that demand large volumes of knowledge are feasible only in the few places where all the requisite knowledge is available. We define ubiquity as the number of countries that make a product (Figure 2.1). Using this terminology, we can observe that complex products –those that contain many personbytes of knowledge–are less ubiquitous. The ubiquity of a product, therefore, reveals information about the volume of knowledge that is required for its production. Hence, the amount of knowledge that a country has is expressed in the diversity and ubiquity of the products that it makes. A game of scrabble is a useful analogy. In scrabble, players use tiles containing single letters to make words. For instance, a player can use the tiles R, A and C to construct the word CAR or ARC. In this analogy, each product is represented by a word, and each capability, or module of embedded knowledge, is represented by a letter. We assume that each player has plenty of copies of the letters they have. Our measure of economic complexity corresponds to estimating what fraction of the alphabet a player possesses, knowing only how many words he or she can make, and how many other players can also make those same words. Players who have more letters will be able to make more

words. So we can expect the diversity of words (products) that a player (country) can make to be strongly related to the number of letters (capabilities) that he (it) has. Long words will tend to be rare, since they can only be put together by players with many letters. Hence, the number of players that can make a word tells us something about the variety of letters each word requires: longer words tend to be less ubiquitous, while shorter words tend to be more common. Similarly, ubiquitous products are more likely to require few capabilities, and less ubiquitous products are more likely to require a large variety of capabilities. Diversity and ubiquity are, respectively, crude approximations of the variety of capabilities available in a country or required by a product. Both of these mappings are affected by the existence of rare letters, such as Q and X. For instance, players holding rare letters will be able to put together words that few other players can make, not because they have many letters, but because the letters that they have are rare. This is just like rare natural resources, such as uranium or diamonds. Yet, we can see whether low ubiquity originates in scarcity or complexity by looking at the number of other words that the makers of rare words are able to form. If these players can only make a few other words, then it is likely that rarity explains the low ubiquity. However, if the players that can make these rare words are, in general, able to put together many other words, then it is likely that the low ubiquity of the word reflects the fact that it requires a large number of letters and not just a few rare ones. Diversity can therefore be used to correct the information carried by ubiquity, and ubiquity can be used to correct the information carried by diversity. We can take this process a step further by correcting diversity using a measure of ubiquity that has already been corrected by diversity and vice versa. In fact, we can do this an infinite number of times using mathematics. This process converges after a few iterations and represents our quantitative measures of

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 21

FIGURE 2.1:
Graphical explanation of diversity and ubiquity.

DIvERSIT DiversityY(kc,0): : Diversity is related to the number of Diversity is related a country is connected to the number of products that products that ato. This is equal to the number of country is connected to. This is equal tolinks that this country has that the number of links in the network. In this example, using a this country hasof the 2009 data, the In this subset in the network. diversity of Netherlands 5, that of Argentina example, using a subset ofisthe 2009 data, is 3, and that of Gana is 1.

NETHERLANDS (NLD)

X-RAY MACHINES

the diversity of Netherlands is 5, that of Argentina is 3, and that of Gana is 1.

MEDICAMENTS

ARGENTINA (ARG)

CREAMS AND POLISHES

CHEESE

GHANA (GHA) FROZEN FISH

Ubiquity (kp,0): Ubiquity is is :related to the number of UbIqUITY Ubiquity is is related to the number of countries that a product is connected to. countries that a product is connected to. Thisisis equalthe number of linksof links that This equal to to the number that this product in the the network. thisproduct hashas innetwork. In this In this example, using a subset of the 2009 data, example, using a subset of the 2009 data, the ubiquity of Cheese is 2, that of Fish is 3 and that of Medicaments is 1. the ubiquity of Cheese is 2, that of Fish is 3 and that of Medicaments is 1.

22 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 2.2:
Map of the World colored according to ECI Ranking.

Rank
1 128

complexity. For countries, we refer to this as the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). The corresponding measure for products gives us the Product Complexity Index. Technical Box 2.2 presents the mathematical definition of these two quantities and Ranking 1 lists countries sorted by their ECI. Figure 2.2 shows a map of the world colored according to a country’s ECI ranking. Consider the case of Singapore and Pakistan. The population of Pakistan is 34 times larger than that of Singapore. At market prices their GDPs are similar since Singapore is 38 times richer than Pakistan in per capita terms. Under the classification we use in this Atlas, they both export a similar number of different products, about 133. How can products tell us about the conspicuous differences in the level of development that exist between these two countries? Pakistan exports products that are on average exported by

28 other countries (placing Pakistan in the 60th percentile of countries in terms of the average ubiquity of their products), while Singapore exports products that are exported on average by 17 other countries (1st percentile). Moreover, the products that Singapore exports are exported by highly diversified countries, while those that Pakistan exports are exported by poorly diversified countries. Our mathematical approach exploits these second, third and higher order differences to create measures that approximate the amount of productive knowledge held in each of these countries. Ultimately, what countries make reveals what they know (see Information Box 2.1). Take medical imaging devices. These machines are made in few places, but the countries that are able to make them, such as the United States or Germany, also export a large number of other products. We can infer that medical imaging devices

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 23

I n f o r m a t I o n B o x 2 . 1 : a n a lt e r n a t I v e way t o u n d e r s ta n d o u r m e a s u r e s of economIc complexIty are complex because few countries make them, and those that do tend to be diverse. By contrast, wood logs are exported by most countries, indicating that many countries have the knowledge required to export them. Now consider the case of raw diamonds. These products are extracted in very few places, making their ubiquity quite low. But is this a reflection of the high knowledge-intensity of raw diamonds? Of course not. If raw diamonds were complex, the countries that would extract diamonds should also be able to make many other things. Since Sierra Leone and Botswana are not very diversified, this indicates that something other than large volumes of knowledge is what makes diamonds rare (see Information Box 2.2 on Product Complexity). This Atlas relies on international trade data. We made this choice because it is the only dataset available that has a rich detailed cross-country information linking countries to the products that they produce in a standardized classification. As such, it offers great advantages, but it does have limitations. First, it includes data on exports, not production. Countries may be able to make things that they do not export. The fact that they do not export them, however, suggests that they may not be very good at them. Countries may also export things they do not make. To circumvent this issue we require that countries export a fair share of the products we connect them to (see Technical Box 2.1). Second, because the data is collected by customs offices, it includes only goods and not services. This is an important drawback, as services are becoming a rising share of international trade. Unfortunately, the statistical efforts of most countries of the world have not kept up with this reality. Finally, the data does not include information on non-tradable activities. These are an important part of the economic eco-system that allows products and services to be made. Our current research is focused on finding implementable solutions to these limitations, and we hope we will be able to present them in future versions of this Atlas.

Understanding the measures of economic complexity described in this atlas can be sometimes challenging. analogies, however, can help get our minds around what the economic complexity index is able to capture. think of a particular country and consider a random product. now, ask yourself the following question: if this country cannot make this product, in how many other countries can this product be made? if the answer is many countries, then this country probably does not have a complex economy. on the other hand, if few other countries are able to make a product that this country cannot make, this would suggest that this is a complex economy. Let us illustrate this with a few examples. according to our measures, Japan and germany are the two countries with the highest levels of economic complexity. ask yourself the question: if a good cannot be produced in Japan or germany, where else can it be made? that list of countries is likely to be a very short one, indicating that Japan and germany are complex economies. now take an opposite example: if a product cannot be made in Mauritania or sudan, where else can it be made? For most products this is likely to be a long list of countries, indicating that sudan and Mauritania are among the world’s least complex economies. this analogy is useful to understand the difference between economic complexity and the level of income per capita of a country. two countries that have high levels of economic complexity, but still low levels of per capita income are China and thailand. ask yourself the question, if you cannot produce it in China or thailand, where else can you produce it? that list of countries will tend to be relatively short. the comparison becomes starker if we restrict it to countries with a similar level of per capita income, like iran, peru and Venezuela, countries that do not make things that many other can. at the opposite end of this comparison, there are countries with high levels of per capita income but relatively low levels of economic complexity. examples of this are Qatar, Kuwait, oman, Venezuela, Libya and Chile. these countries are not rich because of the productive knowledge they hold but because of their “geological luck”, given the large volumes of natural resources based wealth. ask yourself the question; if you cannot build it in Chile or Venezuela, where else can you build it? the fact that there are many countries where it would be possible to produce many things that are not being made in Chile or Venezuela, including countries with a similar level of income such as hungary or the Czech republic, indicates that the level of economic complexity of these countries is low, despite their fairly high level of income. in fact, as we show in this atlas, the gap between a country’s complexity and its level of per capita income is an important determinant of future growth: countries tend to converge to the level of income that can be supported by the knowhow that is embedded in their economy.

24 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

T E C H N I C A L B OX 2 . 1 : M E A S U R I N G E C O N O M I C C O M P L E X I T Y:

If we define , as a matrix that is 1 if country produces product , and otherwise, we can measure diversity and ubiquity simply by summing over the rows or columns of that matrix. Formally, we define:

and rewrite this as :

where

To generate a more accurate measure of the number of capabilities available in a country, or required by a product, we need to correct the information that diversity and ubiquity carry by using each one to correct the other. For countries, this requires us to calculate the average ubiquity of the products that it exports, the average diversity of the countries that make those products and so forth. For products, this requires us to calculate the average diversity of the countries that make them and the average ubiquity of the other products that these countries make. This can be expressed by the recursion:

We note (7) is satisfied when .This is the eigenvector of which is associated with the largest eigenvalue. Since this eigenvector is a vector of ones, it is not informative. We look, instead, for the eigenvector associated with the second largest eigenvalue. This is the eigenvector that captures the largest amount of variance in the system and is our measure of economic complexity. Hence, we define the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as:

where < > represents an average, stdev stands for the standard deviation and

We then insert (4) into (3) to obtain

Analogously, we define a Product Complexity Index (PCI). Because of the symmetry of the problem, this can be done simply by exchanging the index of countries (c) with that for products (p) in the definitions above. Hence, we define PCI as:

where

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 25

I n f o r m at I o n B o x 2 . 2 : t h e w o r l d ’ s m o s t a n d l e a s t c o m p l e x p r o d u c t s
table 2.2.1 and table 2.2.2 show respectively the products that rank highest and lowest in the complexity scale. the difference between the world’s most and less complex products is stark. the most complex products are sophisticated chemicals and machinery that tend to emerge from organizations where a large number of high skilled individuals participate. the world’s least complex products, on the other hand, are raw minerals or simple agricultural products. the economic complexity of a country is connected intimately to the complexity of the products that it exports. Ultimately, countries can only increase their score in the economic Complexity index by becoming competitive in an increasing number of complex industries.

TA B L E 2 . 2 . 1 : T O P 5 P R O D U C T S B Y C O M P L E X I T Y

Product Code (SITC4)
7284 8744 7742 3345 7367

Product Name
Machines & appliances for specialized particular industries Instrument & appliances for physical or chemical analysis Appliances based on the use of X-rays or radiation Lubricating petrol oils & other heavy petrol oils Other machine tools for working metal or metal carbide

Product Community
Machinery Chemicals & Health Chemicals & Health Chemicals & Health Machinery

Product Complexity Index
2.27 2.21 2.16 2.10 2.05

TA B L E 2 . 2 . 2 : B O T T O M 5 P R O D U C T S B Y C O M P L E X I T Y

Product Code (SITC4)
3330 2876 2631 3345 7367

Product Name
Crude oil Tin ores & concentrates Cotton, not carded or combed Cocoa beans Sesame seeds

Product Community
Oil Mining Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others Tropical Agriculture Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others

Product Complexity Index
-3.00 -2.63 -2.63 -2.61 -2.58

t e c h n I c a l B o x 2 . 2 : w h o m a k e s w h at ?

When associating countries to products it is important to take into account the size of the export volume of countries and that of the world trade of products. this is because, even for the same product, we expect the volume of exports of a large country like China, to be larger than the volume of exports of a small country like Uruguay. By the same token, we expect the export volume of products that represent a large fraction of world trade, such as cars or footwear, to represent a larger share of a country’s exports than products that account for a small fraction of world trade, like cotton seed oil or potato flour. to make countries and products comparable we use Balassa’s definition of revealed Comparative advantage or rCa. Balassa’s definition says that a country has revealed Comparative advantage in a product if it exports more than its “fair” share, that is, a share that is equal to the share of total world trade that the product represents. For example, in 2008, with exports of $42 billion, soybeans represented 0.35% of world trade. of this total, Brazil exported nearly $11 billion, and since Brazil’s total exports for that year were $140 billion, soybeans accounted for 7.8% of Brazil’s exports. this represents around 21 times Brazil’s “fair share” of soybean exports (7.8% divided by 0.35%), so we can say that Brazil has revealed comparative advantage in soybeans. Formally, if represents the exports of country in product , we can express the revealed Comparative advantage that country has in product as:

We use this measure to construct a matrix that connects each country to the products that it makes. the entries in the matrix are 1 if country exports product with revealed Comparative advantage larger than 1, and o otherwise. Formally we define this as the matrix, where

is the matrix summarizing which country makes what, and is used to construct the product space and our measures of economic complexity for countries and products. in our research we have played around with cutoff values other than 1 to construct the matrix and found that our results are robust to these changes. going forward, we smooth changes in export volumes induced by the price fluctuation of commodities by using a modified definition of rCa in which the denominator is averaged over the previous three years.

SEC T I O N 3
Why Is Economic Complexity Important?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 27

A

s we have argued, economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. Seen this way, it is no coincidence that there is a strong correlation between our measures of economic complexity and the income per capita that countries are able to generate. Figure 3.1 illustrates the relationship between the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Income per capita for the 128 countries studied in this Atlas. Here, we separate countries according to their intensity in natural resource exports. We color in red those countries for which natural resources, such as minerals, gas and oil, represent at least 10% of GDP. For the 75 countries with a limited relative presence of natural-resource exports (in blue), economic complexity accounts for 75 percent of the variance in income per capita. But as the Figure 3.1 illustrates, countries with a large presence of natural resources can be relatively rich without being complex. If we control for the income that is generated from extractive activities, which has more to do with geology than knowhow, economic complexity can explain about 73 percent of the variation in income across all 128 countries. Figure 3.2 shows the tight relationship between economic complexity and income per capita that emerges after we take into account a country’s natural resource income. Economic complexity, therefore, is related to a country’s level of prosperity. As such, it is just a correlation of things we care about. The relationship between income and complexity, however, goes deeper than this. Countries whose

economic complexity is greater than what we would expect, given their level of income, tend to grow faster than those that are “too rich” for their current level of economic complexity. In this sense, economic complexity is not just a symptom or an expression of prosperity: it is a driver. Technical Box 3.1 presents the regression that we use to relate economic complexity to subsequent economic growth. The equation is simple. We regress the growth in per capita income over 10-year periods on economic complexity, while controlling for initial income and for the increase in real natural resource income experienced during that period. We also include an interaction term between initial income per capita and the ECI. The increase in the explanatory power of the growth equation that can be attributed to the Economic Complexity Index is at least 15 percentage points, or more than a third of the variance explained by the whole equation. Moreover, the size of the estimated effect is large: an increase of one standard deviation in complexity, which is something that Thailand achieved between 1970 and 1985, is associated with a subsequent acceleration of a country’s long-term growth rate of 1.6 percent per year. This is over and above the growth that would have been expected from mineral wealth and global trends. The ability of the ECI to predict future economic growth suggests that countries tend to move towards an income level that is compatible with their overall level of embedded knowhow. On average, their income tends to reflect their embedded knowledge. But when it does not, it gets corrected through accelerated or diminished growth. The gap between a country’s level of income and complexity is the key vari-

28 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 3.1:
Shows the relationship between income per capita and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for countries where natural resource exports are larger than 10% of GDP (red) and for those where natural resource exports are lower than 10% of GDP (blue). For the latter group of countries, the Economic Complexity Index accounts for 75% of the variance. Countries in which the levels of natural resource exports is relatively high tend to be significantly richer than what would be expected given the complexity of their economies, yet the ECI still correlates strongly with income for that group.

105
KWT

QAT ARE AUS GRC NZL SAU LVA VEN KAZ BWA CHL RUS URY ARG BRA TUR LBN

NOR DNK BEL ESP HKG PRT EST HRV LTU POL MYS PAN ROU CHE SWE IRL USAFRA FIN GBR AUT DEU ITA SGP SVN CZE HUN MEX BLR

NLD CAN

OMN LBY

ISR SVK KOR

JPN

TTO

GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10

4

GAB

103

MUS ZAF CUB CRI JAM MKD COL DOM ECU ALB TUN NAM JOR TKM SLV COG MAR GEO GTM PRY SYR MNG IDN EGY BOL LKA HND MDA PHL NGA SDN PNG MRT YEM ZMB SEN GHA VNM NIC CMR CIV IND KGZ UZB PAK TJK KEN LAO KHM MLI BGD TZA MDG GIN UGA MOZ ZWE ETH MWI LBR AGO AZE DZA IRN PER

BGR SRB BIH UKR

THA CHN

R2 = 0.75
1 2

-3

-2

-1

0

Economic Complexity Index [2008]

FIGURE 3.2:
Shows the relationship between economic complexity and income per capita obtained after controlling for each country’s natural resource exports. After including this control, through the inclusion of the log of natural resource exports per capita, economic complexity and natural resources explain 73% of the variance in per capita income across countries.

1.5

SVN

Income per capita controlling for initial income and proportion of natural resource exports per capita in logs [2008]

1

FRA ITA ESP IRL USA AUT GBR LBN KWT NOR LBY BEL MWI FIN SAU DNK SWE CRI ARE AGO SGP PRT KOR BGD HRV HUN OMN JOR HKG KHM NZL TUR SVK CZE SRB AUS CAN MUS ROU EST URY GAB LVA LTU POL ISR PRY TTO KAZ MDA PAN THA LKA SLV DZA BLR BRA VEN ARG CHL CHN RUS CUB BWA TKM MEX ALBZAF MYS BGR SENCOL IRN MAR MKD BIH PHL PER ECU NAM PAK UKR JAM O GTMKEN PNG TUN HND GEO MNG BOL NGA MRT CIV EGY IDN IND SYR NCC YEM MDG UGA GIN ETH ZMB GHA UZB VNM LAO KGZ MLI TJK TZA LBR MOZ ZWE GRC QAT DOM NLD

CHE DEU COG AZE JPN

-.5

0

.5

SDN

CMR

R2 = 0.73
2

-1 -2

-1

0

1

Economic Complexity Index controlling for initial income and proportion of natural resource exports per capita in logs [2008]

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 29

FIGURE 3.3:
Shows the relationship between the annualized GDP per capita growth for the period between 1998 and 2008 and the Economic Complexity Index for 1998, after taking into account the initial level of income and the increase in natural resource exports during that period (in constant dollars as a share of initial GDP).

TKM

CHN

.05

LVA KHM EST

BLR

Growth in per capita GDP, controlling for initial income and growth in natural resource exports [1998-2008]

LTU KAZ KOR

RUS BGR ROU SVK BIH TJK

GEO

UKR

CUB TTO HKG

ALB SGP

SVN IND VNM MDA POL IRL HUN HRV ETH CZE JOR DOM LKA THA TUN UZB FIN SWE MUS LAO UGA BGD MNG MOZ MYS CRI PER IDN MAR TZA IRN EGY MKD GBR KGZ AUT AUS LBN TUR NLD ESPPHLZAF BEL CAN NZL GHA USA SLV OMN NIC DEU CHE ISR BRA CHL ARG FRA ARE DNK ECU JPN MEX PRT URY PAK COL HND NGA NOR AZE ZMB ITA MLI VEN SEN GTM JAM DZA LBR CMR SAU PRY SYR KENMRT MDG YEM BOL GIN GRC PAN AGO COG GAB PNG CIV

-.05

0

-1

0

1

Economic Complexity Index controlling for initial income and growth in natural resource export [1998]

able that we use here to estimate the growth potential of countries (Figure 3.3). It is important to note what the Economic Complexity Index is not about: it is not about export-oriented growth, openness, export diversification or country size. Although we calculate the ECI using export data, the channel through which it contributes to future growth is not limited to its impact on the growth of exports. Clearly, countries whose exports grow faster, all other things being equal, will necessarily experience higher GDP growth. This is simply because exports are a component of GDP. However, as Technical Box 3.2 shows, the contribution of the ECI to future economic growth remains strong after accounting for the growth in real exports. The ECI is also not about openness to trade: the impact of the ECI on growth is essentially unaffected if we account for differences in the ratio of exports to GDP. And the ECI is not

a measure of export diversification. Controlling for standard measures of export concentration, such as the HerfindahlHirschman Index, does not affect our results. In fact, neither openness nor export concentration are statistically significant determinants of growth after controlling for the ECI (see Technical Box 3.2). Finally, the ECI is not about a country’s size. The ability of the ECI to predict growth is unaffected when we take into account a country’s size, as measured by its population, while the population itself is not statistically significant (see Technical Box 3.2). In short, economic complexity matters because it helps explain differences in the level of income of countries, and more important, because it predicts future economic growth. Economic complexity might not be simple to accomplish, but the countries that do achieve it, tend to reap important rewards.

30 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

technIcal Box 3.1: the growth regressIon
to analyze the impact of the economic Complexity index (eCi) on future economic growth we estimate two regressions where the dependent variable is the annualized growth rate of gDp per capita for the periods 1978-1988, 1988-1998 and 1998-2008. in the first of these equations we do not include eCi and use only two control variables: the logarithm of the initial level of gDp per capita in each period and the increase in natural resource exports in constant dollars as a share of initial gDp. the first variable captures the idea that, other things equal, poorer countries should grow faster than rich countries and catch up. this is known in the economic literature as convergence. the second control variable captures the effect on growth of increases in income that come from natural resource wealth, which complexity does not explain. in addition, we include a dummy variable for each decade, capturing any common factor affecting all countries during that decade, such as a global boom or a widespread financial crisis. taken together, these variables account for 28.5 percent of the variance in countries’ growth rates. this is shown in the first column of table 3.1.1. in addition to the above mentioned variables, the second regression includes the effect of economic complexity on growth. We do this by adding two additional terms: the eCi at the beginning of the decade and an interaction term between the eCi and the initial level of gDp per capita. the interaction attempts to capture the idea that the contribution of economic complexity to future economic growth depends on the level of per capita income. the second column of table 3.1.1 shows that economic complexity is strongly associated with future economic growth. the negative coefficient on the interaction term indicates that the impact of complexity on growth declines with a country’s level of income. For example, according to the estimation in Column 2, and using data for 1998, an increase in the eCi of one standard deviation would accelerate growth by 2.3 percent per year in a country at the 10th percentile of income, by 1.6 percent in a country at the median income, and by 0.7 percent for countries in the 90th percentile. the variables contained in Column 2 jointly account for 43.4 percent of the variance in growth rates. the difference between these two regressions indicates that the eCi increases the regression’s r2 in 15 percentage points. this represents over a third of the explained fraction of the 43.4 percent of the variance that the equation explains as a whole. the estimates of the second column of table 3.1.1 are used to forecast the growth in gDp per capita and rank countries according to their growth potential (see table 3.1.1). to predict average annualized growth between 2008 and 2020 we make two assumptions. First, we assume a worldwide common growth term for the decade, which we take to be the same as that observed in the 19982008 period. Changing this assumption would affect the growth rate of all countries by a similar amount but would not change the rankings. second, we assume that there will be no change in the real value of natural resource exports as a share of initial gDp. this implies that the we assume that natural resource exports in real terms in the next decade will remain at the record-high levels achieved in 2008. this assumption may underestimate the effect on countries whose volumes of natural resource extraction will increase significantly and over-estimate the growth in countries that will see their natural-resource export volumes declines. a higher (lower) constant dollar price of natural resource exports would improve (reduce) the projected growth performance of countries by an amount proportional to their natural resource intensity.

TA B L E 3 . 1 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade)
(1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES Initial Income per capita, log Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI) (1) -0.00017 (0.001) 0.03960*** (0.008) (2) -0.00638*** (0.001) 0.03682*** (0.010) 0.04430*** (0.009) [ ECI] X [Income per capita, log] -0.00371*** (0.001) Constant 0.03036*** (0.008) Observations R2 Year FE 291 0.285 Yes 0.08251*** (0.011) 291 0.434 Yes

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 31

t e c h n I c a l B ox 3 . 2 : e c o n o m I c c o m p l e x I t y: t h e v o l u m e a n d c o n c e n t r at I o n o f e x p o r t s a n d c o u n t r y s I z e

this box explores the robustness of the impact of the economic Complexity index on growth. While the eCi is constructed using export data, its relationship with future growth is not driven by export volumes or concentration. to show this, we start with our basic growth equation (table 3.2.1, column 1). Column 2 adds to this equation the increase in the real value of the exports of goods and services in the decade in question as a fraction of initial gDp. exports are a component of gDp, and therefore, we expect them to contribute to growth. nevertheless, after including the increase in exports, the effect of

eCi on growth remains strong and significant. Column 3 introduces export as a share of gDp. We use this as a measure of openness. Column 4 includes the herfindahl-hirschman index as a measure of export concentration. Column 5 includes the log of initial population as a measure of size. this is equivalent to introducing total gDp, given that we are already controlling for gDp per capita. the contribution to growth of the variables introduced in columns 3, 4 and 5 are estimated to be very close to zero, are not statistically significant and do not affect the ability of the eCi to predict future economic growth.

TA B L E 3 . 2 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade)
(1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI) (1) 0.04430*** (0.009) [ECI] X [Income per capita, log] -0.00371*** (0.001) Increase exports (goods and services) - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Exports to GDP (2) 0.03005*** (0.007) -0.00244*** (0.001) 0.04549*** (0.007) 0.00009 (0.000) Export Concentration -0.00890 (0.008) Population, log 0.00168 (0.001) Initial Income per capita, log -0.00638*** (0.001) Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Constant 0.03682*** (0.010) 0.08251*** (0.011) Observations R2 Year FE
Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

(3) 0.04240*** (0.008) -0.00345*** (0.001)

(4) 0.04143*** (0.010) -0.00354*** (0.001)

(5) 0.04389*** (0.009) -0.00381*** (0.001)

-0.00562*** (0.001) 0.00169 (0.005) 0.06741*** (0.011) 260 0.584 Yes

-0.00729*** (0.001) 0.03441*** (0.008) 0.08616*** (0.011) 284 0.449 Yes

-0.00611*** (0.001) 0.03699*** (0.010) 0.08145*** (0.011) 291 0.436 Yes

-0.00558*** (0.001) 0.03758*** (0.010) 0.04878** (0.022) 291 0.440 Yes

291 0.434 Yes

SEC T I O N 4
How Is Complexity Different from Other Approaches?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 33

W

e are certainly not the first ones to look for correlates or causal factors of income and growth. There are plenty of others who have come before us. One strand of the literature has looked at the salience of institutions in determining growth, whereas others have looked at human capital or broader measures of competitiveness. Clearly, more complex economies have better institutions, more educated workers and more competitive environments, so these approaches are not completely at odds with each other or with ours. In fact, institutions, education, competitiveness and economic complexity emphasize different aspects of the same intricate reality. It is not clear, however, that these different approaches have the same ability to capture factors that are verifiably important for growth and development. In this section, we compare each of these measures with the Economic Complexity Index and gauge their marginal contribution to income and economic growth.

measures of governance and institutional quality
Some of the most respected measures of institutional quality are the six Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs), which the World Bank has published biennially since 1996. These indicators are used, for example, as eligibility criteria by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) when selecting the countries they chose to support. These criteria are based on the direct connection between governance and growth and poverty reduction.

To the extent that governance is important to allow individuals and organizations to cooperate, share knowledge and make more complex products, it should be reflected in the kind of industries that a country can support. Therefore, the Economic Complexity Index indirectly captures information about the quality of governance in the country. Which indicator captures information that is more relevant for growth is an empirical question. Here we compare the contribution to future economic growth implied by the WGIs and the ECI using a technique described in Technical Box 4.1. Since the WGIs are available only since 1996, we perform this exercise using the 19962008 period as a whole and as two consecutive 6-year periods. We also compare with each individual WGI and with the six of them together. Figure 4.1 shows that the ECI accounts for 15.1 percent of the variance in economic growth during the 1996-2008 period, while the six WGIs combined account only for 1.0 percent. For the estimation using the two six year periods, we find that ECI accounts for 10.5% of the variance in growth, whereas the six WGIs combined account for 1.6%. We conclude that as far as future economic growth is concerned, the Economic Complexity Index captures significantly more growth-relevant information than the 6 World Governance Indicators, either individually or combined. This does not mean that governance is not important for the economy. It suggests that the aspects of governance important for growth are weakly reflected in the WGIs and appear to be more strongly reflected in the economic activities that thrive in each country. These may be more effectively captured by the Economic Complexity Index.

34 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 4.1:
Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and from the measures of governance and institutional quality.

Economic Complexity Index All Instituional Variables Political Stability Voice and Accountability 12 years 6 Years Rule of Law Regulatory Quality Government Effectiveness Control of Corruption 0% 5% 10% 15%

Contribution to R2

measures of human capital
Another strand of the growth and development literature has looked at the impact of human capital on economic growth. The idea that human capital is important for income and growth is not unrelated to our focus on the productive knowledge that exists in a society. The human capital literature, however, has placed its attention on measures of formal education. Instead, our approach emphasizes the tacit productive knowledge that is embedded in a country’s economic activities. The standard variables used as a proxy for human capital are the number of years of formal schooling attained by those currently of working age, or the school enrollment of the young (Barro and Lee, 2010). Since these indicators do not take into account the quality of the education received by pupils, they have been subject to criticism resulting in new measures of educational quality. These measures use test scores from standardized international exams, such as the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) or the Trend in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Hanuschek and Woessmann (2008) collected data for all the countries that participated in either program and used this information to generate a measure of the cognitive ability of students for a cross-section of countries around the year 2000. The information on productive knowhow captured by the Economic Complexity Index and by measures of human capital, are not just two sides of the same coin. Analytically, human capital indicators try to measure how much of the same knowledge individuals have, whether knowledge is measured as years of study of the national curriculum or as

the skills mastered by students according to standardized international tests. In contrast, the Economic Complexity Index tries to capture the total amount of productive knowledge that is embedded in a society as a whole and is related to the diversity of knowledge that a society holds. Clearly, for a complex economy to exist, its members must be able to read, write and manipulate symbols, such as numbers or mathematical functions. This is what is taught in schools. Yet, the converse is not true: the skills acquired in school may be a poor proxy for the productive knowledge of society. For example, if a country were to achieve the goal of having everybody finish a good secondary education and if this was the extent of its productive knowledge, nobody would know how to make a pair of shoes, a metal knife, a roll of paper or a patterned piece of cotton fabric. There is a reason why job offers request years of experience and not just years of schooling. This means that what a society makes affects what kinds of knowledge new workers can acquire on the job. The human capital approach emphasizes the opposite logic: what workers formally study is what affects what a society can produce. Figure 4.2 shows the relationship between our measure of economic complexity and years of schooling for the year 2000. It is clear that there is positive relationship between the two (R2=50%). Countries like India and Uganda, or Mongolia and Mexico, have very similar levels of average formal education. Yet, they differ dramatically in economic complexity. India is much more complex than Uganda, and Mexico is much more complex than Mongolia. Figure 4.3 shows that the relationship between cognitive ability and economic complexity is also positive.Here we

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 35

FIGURE 4.2:
Relationship between Years of Schooling and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the year 2000.

FIGURE 4.3:
Relationship between Cognitive Ability and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the year 2000.

DEU CHE

JPN SWE

JPN
USA CZE

FIN AUT SGP

GBR FRA DNK ESP POL BEL NLD CAN KOR UKR

Economic Complexity Index

Economic Complexity Index

ITA SVN

IRL SVK ISR HUN NOR

MEX BRA

RUS

MOZ MLI

YEM

HRV HKG PRT ROU JOR MYS BGR ZAF GRC THA COL CHN URY ARG CHL TUR IND LTU SAU LVA VEN TUN KAZ KGZ TTO IDN EGY PHL ALB PAN ARE PER PRY QAT GAB CRI TJK MAR KWT DZA IRN LBY ZWE LKA VNM BOL PAK JAM ZMB SLV ECU MNG CUB GTM BGD LBR KEN MUS SYR COG MRT SEN GHA LAO CIV HND TZA PNG SDN NIC KHM UGA MWI CMR

NZL EST AUS

BRA ZAF SAU ARG TUN IDN ALB

MEX JOR CHL COL LBN TUR EGY MKD ZWE IRN URY IND

0

0

FIN FRA IRL AUT DNK BEL CZE ITA SVN SVK NLD ISR ESP CAN HUN POL RUS NOR MYS NZL PRT HKG BGR GRC EST THA CHN MDA LTU LVA AUS

USA

GBR

SWE

2

2

CHE

SGP KOR

1

1

PER MAR

PHL

KWT

−1

-1

GHA NGA

−2

0

5

10

15

_2 3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

Years of schooling

Cognitive Ability

find that Brazil and Ghana are two countries with similar levels of cognitive ability, but very different levels of economic complexity. Brazil is two standard deviations more complex than Ghana. The same is true for Colombia and Nigeria. Their measured cognitive abilities are the same, but Colombia is nearly 1.5 standard deviations more complex than Nigeria. For illustration purposes, consider the case of Ghana and Thailand. Both countries had similar levels of schooling in 1970, but Ghana expanded education more vigorously than Thailand in the subsequent 40 years (Figure 4.4). But Ghana’s economic complexity and income stagnated as it remained an exporter of cocoa, aluminum, fish and forest products. By contrast, between 1970 and 1985 Thailand underwent a massive increase in economic complexity, equivalent to a change of one standard deviation in the Economic Complexity Index (Figure 4.5). This caused a sustained economic boom in Thailand after 1985. As a consequence, the level of income per capita between Ghana and Thailand has since diverged dramatically (Figure 4.6). Next, we measure these indicators’ ability to predict future economic growth, using the same technique that we employed to compare ECI to the WGIs (see Technical Box 4.2). We begin by looking at the relationship between education, complexity and a country’s level of income per capita. While data on years of schooling and school enrollment is available for several years, the data on educational quality exists only for a cross-section of countries around the year 2000. We use the data for this year to estimate equations where the dependent variable is the level of income per capita and the independent variables are the years of schooling of

the labor force, the Hanushek and Woessmann measure of cognitive ability, and the ECI. We do not use school enrollment as this variable affects future human capital but not the human capital invested in creating today’s income. The results, presented in Figure 4.7, indicate that the Economic Complexity Index explains 17.2 percent of the variance while years of schooling and cognitive ability account for only 3.6 percent of the variance when combined. We also look at the ability of human capital and complexity to explain future growth. To do this we follow a similar methodology as before (see Technical Box 4.2). In this case, we include data on school enrollment at the secondary and tertiary levels as these would affect the years of schooling of the labor force going forward. We do not include cognitive ability as this variable exists only for a single year. Figure 4.8 shows that economic complexity accounts for 12.1 percent of the variance in economic growth rates for the three decades between 1978 and 2008. All education variables, on the other hand, account only for 2.6 percent when combined. These results show that the Economic Complexity Index contains information that is more directly related to a country’s level of income and its future rate of growth than the standard variables used to measure human capital.

measures of competitiveness
Finally, we look at measures of competitiveness. The most respected source of these measures is the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). The GCI has been published since 1979. Over the course of more than 30 years, the coverage of the GCI has been expanded and

36 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 4.4:
Years of schooling of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

8

Ghana

Thailand

Years of Schooling

2 1960

4

6

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

FIGURE 4.5:
Economic Complexity Index (ECI) of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

Ghana

Thailand

improved methodologically, going through two major revisions in 2001 and 2006. By 1995, the GCR ranked less than 50 countries, but over the years this number has increased, now reaching over 130 countries. The claim of the Global Competitiveness Report is that the index captures the fundamental variables that drive growth over the medium term: “We define competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. Because the rates of return are the fundamental drivers of the growth rates of the economy, a more competitive economy is one that is likely to grow faster in the medium to long run.”
(global competitiveness report 2010. chapter 1.1, page 4)

Economic Complexity Index

-4 1960

-2

0

2

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

FIGURE 4.6:
Evolution of the GDP per capita of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Ghana

Thailand

1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

The GCI develops over 150 measures of elements that it considers important for competitiveness and then averages them. The ECI looks, instead, at the actual kinds of industry that a country can support. Both should capture information that is relevant to an economy’s ability to grow. Which one does so more effectively is an empirical question that we address next. Since we only have data for the GCI rankings, and not the underlying value of the index, we do the analysis using the rankings of the Economic Complexity Index instead of its value. This allows for a fairer comparison. We do comparisons using 5 and 10 year panels starting in 1979 and find that the GCI rankings contribute significantly less to the variance of economic growth than the ECI (see Technical Box 4.3 and Figure 4.9). We conclude that the Economic Complexity Index can account for a significant fraction of the cross-country variation in income per capita and economic growth, and that the ECI is a much stronger predictor of growth than other commonly used indicators that measure human capital, governance or competitiveness.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 37

FIGURE 4.7:
Contribution to the variance of income from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of Human Capital.

Economic Complexity Index All Education Variables Years of Schooling Cognitive Abilities 0% 5% 10% 15%

Contribution to R2

FIGURE 4.8:
Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of Human Capital.

Economic Complexity Index All Education Variables Years of Schooling Tertiary School Enrollment Secondary School Enrollment 0% 5% 10% 15%

Contribution to R2

FIGURE 4.9:
Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of competitiveness.

Economic Complexity ranking 10 years 5 Years WEF - Competitiveness Ranking 20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Contribution to R2

38 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

technIcal Box 4.1: governance and complexIty
We compare the contribution to economic growth of the Worldwide governance indicators (Wgis) and economic complexity by estimating a growth regression where all of the Wgis and the economic Complexity index are used as explanatory variables. as controls we include the logarithm of per capita income, the increase in natural resource exports during the period and the initial share of gDp represented by natural resource exports. the contribution of each variable is estimated by taking the difference between the r2 obtained for the regression using all variables and that obtained for the regression where the variable was removed.

TA B L E 4 . 1 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (6 years)
1996-2002, 2002-2008 VARIABLES
Income per capita, logs

(1)
-0.00253*** (0.000)

(2)
-0.00149*** (0.000) 0.00246 (0.003) 0.00879*** (0.003)

(3)
-0.00251*** (0.000) 0.00418** (0.002) 0.01178*** (0.002) 0.00547*** (0.001) -0.00035** (0.000)

(4)
-0.00251*** (0.000) 0.00417** (0.002) 0.01177*** (0.002) 0.00536*** (0.001) -0.00034** (0.000) 0.00003 (0.001)

(5)
-0.00257*** (0.000) 0.00426** (0.002) 0.01169*** (0.002) 0.00598*** (0.001) -0.00042** (0.000) -0.00005 (0.001) 0.00050 (0.001)

(6)
-0.00253*** (0.000) 0.00423** (0.002) 0.01184*** (0.002) 0.00551*** (0.001) -0.00036** (0.000) 0.00000 (0.001) 0.00036 (0.001) 0.00105** (0.000)

(7)
-0.00258*** (0.000) 0.00431** (0.002) 0.01214*** (0.002) 0.00531*** (0.001) -0.00032** (0.000) -0.00006 (0.001) 0.00013 (0.001) 0.00106** (0.000) 0.00003 (0.001)

(8)
-0.00254*** (0.000) 0.00411** (0.002) 0.01174*** (0.002) 0.00537*** (0.001) -0.00034** (0.000) -0.00006 (0.001) 0.00025 (0.001) 0.00107** (0.000) 0.00029 (0.001) -0.00039 (0.001)

(9)
-0.00210*** (0.000) 0.00393** (0.002) 0.01121*** (0.002) 0.00500*** (0.001) -0.00026* (0.000)

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Initial NR exports to GDP

0.00420** (0.002) 0.01181*** (0.002)

Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI)

0.00547*** (0.001)

[ECI] x GDP per capita, log

-0.00035** (0.000)

Initial Control of Corruption

-0.00006 (0.001)

-0.00123 (0.001) 0.00110 (0.001) 0.00119** (0.000) 0.00105 (0.001) -0.00125 (0.001) 0.00053 (0.001) 0.01621*** (0.003) 243 0.315 Yes 10.5% -0.00006 (0.001) 0.00091** (0.000) 0.00046 (0.001) -0.00050 (0.001) 0.00034 (0.000) 0.02412*** (0.003) 243 0.417 Yes 0.3%

Initial Government Effectiveness

0.00029 (0.001)

Initial Political Stability

0.00102** (0.000)

0.00104** (0.000) 0.00031 (0.001) -0.00052 (0.001) 0.00031 (0.000) 0.02410*** (0.003) 243 0.422 Yes 0.2% 0.00082 (0.001) -0.00068 (0.001) 0.00050 (0.000) 0.02452*** (0.003) 243 0.408 Yes 1.2%

Initial Rule of Law

0.00022 (0.001)

Initial Regulatory Quality

-0.00056 (0.001)

-0.00053 (0.001) 0.00033 (0.000) 0.02421*** (0.003) 243 0.422 Yes 0.2% 0.00014 (0.000) 0.02453*** (0.003) 243 0.420 Yes 0.0%

Initial Voice and Accountability

0.00032 (0.000)

Constant

0.02428*** (0.003)

0.02429*** (0.003) 243 0.421 Yes 0.1%

0.01868*** (0.002) 243 0.404 Yes 1.6%

Observations Adjusted R2 Year FE R2 difference

243 0.420 Yes

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 39

table 4.1.1 shows the results of this procedure using two consecutive six year periods. table 4.1.2 shows the same procedure using one twelve year period (1996-2008). Figure 4.1 of the main text, illustrates the differences in r2 between the regression using all variables and those where individual variables were removed.

TA B L E 4 . 1 . 2

Annualized growth in GDP pc (12 years)
1996-2008 VARIABLES
Income per capita, logs

(1)
-0.00202*** (0.000)

(2)
-0.00127*** (0.000) 0.00255*** (0.000) 0.00314** (0.001)

(3)
-0.00199*** (0.000) 0.00226*** (0.000) 0.00357*** (0.001) 0.00371*** (0.001) -0.00015 (0.000)

(4)
-0.00213*** (0.000) 0.00233*** (0.000) 0.00367*** (0.001) 0.00436*** (0.001) -0.00026 (0.000) -0.00027 (0.001)

(5)
-0.00203*** (0.000) 0.00228*** (0.000) 0.00342*** (0.001) 0.00405** (0.002) -0.00020 (0.000) 0.00001 (0.001) -0.00080 (0.001)

(6)
-0.00196*** (0.000) 0.00227*** (0.000) 0.00367*** (0.001) 0.00415*** (0.002) -0.00020 (0.000) 0.00029 (0.001) -0.00069 (0.001) 0.00078** (0.000)

(7)
-0.00207*** (0.000) 0.00233*** (0.000) 0.00383*** (0.001) 0.00364** (0.001) -0.00014 (0.000) 0.00005 (0.001) -0.00107 (0.001) 0.00069* (0.000) 0.00087 (0.001)

(8)
-0.00201*** (0.000) 0.00232*** (0.000) 0.00361*** (0.001) 0.00392** (0.002) -0.00019 (0.000) -0.00003 (0.001) -0.00087 (0.001) 0.00059* (0.000) 0.00094 (0.001) -0.00053 (0.001)

(9)
-0.00202*** (0.000) 0.00235*** (0.000) 0.00369*** (0.001) 0.00467*** (0.001) -0.00026** (0.000)

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Initial NR exports to GDP

0.00228*** (0.000) 0.00361*** (0.001)

Initial Economic Complexity Index [ECI]

0.00380** (0.002)

[ECI] x [GDP per capita, log]

-0.00017 (0.000)

Initial Control of Corruption

0.00004 (0.001)

-0.00079 (0.001) -0.00040 (0.001) 0.00079* (0.000) 0.00237*** (0.001) -0.00125* (0.001) -0.00014 (0.001) 0.01384*** (0.003) 118 0.365 15.1% -0.00117 (0.001) 0.00054 (0.000) 0.00121* (0.001) -0.00036 (0.001) -0.00028 (0.000) 0.01936*** (0.003) 118 0.516 0.0%

Initial Government Effectiveness

-0.00097 (0.001)

Initial Political Stability

0.00065* (0.000)

0.00057* (0.000) 0.00073 (0.001) -0.00051 (0.001) -0.00019 (0.000) 0.02052*** (0.002) 118 0.514 0.2% 0.00135* (0.001) -0.00051 (0.001) -0.00016 (0.000) 0.01963*** (0.003) 118 0.510 0.6%

Initial Rule of Law

0.00103 (0.001)

Initial Regulatory Quality

-0.00040 (0.001)

-0.00024 (0.001) -0.00021 (0.000) 0.01918*** (0.003) 118 0.513 0.3% -0.00042 (0.000) 0.01993*** (0.003) 118 0.518 0.2%

Initial Voice and Accountability

-0.00030 (0.000)

Constant

0.01960*** (0.003)

0.01961*** (0.003) 118 0.519 0.3%

0.01954*** (0.002) 118 0.506 1.0%

Observations Adjusted R2 Difference in R2

118 0.516

40 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

t e c h n I c a l B o x 4 . 2 : e d u c at I o n , c o g n I t I v e a B I l I t y a n d e c o n o m I c c o m p l e x I t y

We compare the contribution to income of education, cognitive ability and economic complexity by regressing income against years of schooling, cognitive ability and the economic Complexity index. the contribution to income of each variable is estimated by taking the difference between the r2 obtained for the regression using all variables and that obtained for a regression where the variable in question was removed. table 4.2.1 shows the results of this procedure for the year 2000, when cognitive ability data is available. Figure 4.7 in the main text summarizes the results. We compare the contribution to growth of education and economic complex-

ity by regressing growth against years of schooling secondary school enrollment, tertiary school enrollment, and the economic Complexity index. as additional controls we include the change in natural resource exports during the period, the logarithm of per capita income and year fixed effects. the contribution of each variable to growth is estimated by taking the difference between the r2 obtained for a regression using all variables and one obtained for a regression where the variable in question was removed. table 4.2.2 shows the results of this procedure for ten year panels starting in 1978, 1988 and 1998. Figure 4.8 in the main text summarize the results.

TA B L E 4 . 2 . 1

Income per capita, log – Year 2000
VARIABLES
Economic Complexity Index

(1)
0.998*** (0.204)

(2)

(3)
1.079*** (0.214)

(4)
1.042*** (0.160) 0.14750** (0.068)

(5)
1.264*** (0.138)

Years of schooling

0.134* (0.077)

0.213** (0.085) 0.875*** (0.290) 2.861*** (0.995) 59 0.448 0.344 (0.249) 6.38972*** (0.977) 59 0.596

Cognitive ability

0.118 (0.263)

Constant

6.294*** (0.917)

6.688*** (0.562) 59 0.619

7.826*** (0.183) 59 0.584

Observations R
2

59 0.620

Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 41

TA B L E 4 . 2 . 2

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade)
(1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES
Initial Income per capita, log

(1)
-0.009*** (0.001)

(2)
-0.006*** (0.001) 0.049** (0.021)

(3)
-0.008*** (0.001) 0.055*** (0.018) 0.046*** (0.011) -0.004*** (0.001)

(4)
-0.009*** (0.001) 0.055*** (0.018) 0.044*** (0.011) -0.004*** (0.001) 0.008*** (0.003)

(5)
-0.009*** (0.001) 0.055*** (0.018) 0.045*** (0.011) -0.004*** (0.001) 0.005 (0.003) 0.002 (0.003)

(6)
-0.007*** (0.001) 0.061*** (0.017) 0.052*** (0.011) -0.004*** (0.001)

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Initial Economic Complexity Index

0.055*** (0.018) 0.044*** (0.011)

Initial Economic Complexity Index X Income per capita, log

-0.004*** (0.001)

Years of schooling (standardized)

0.008* (0.004)

0.013*** (0.004) 0.001 (0.003) -0.003 (0.002) 0.071*** (0.012) 263 0.288 Yes 0.005** (0.002) -0.000 (0.001) 0.091*** (0.011) 263 0.401 Yes

Secondary school enrollment (standardized)

0.000 (0.003)

Tertiary school enrollment (standardized)

-0.003 (0.002)

-0.003 (0.002) 0.097*** (0.012) 263 0.409 Yes 0.099*** (0.012) 263 0.406 Yes 0.083*** (0.010) 263 0.383 Yes

Constant

0.097*** (0.012)

Observations R2 Year FE
Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

263 0.409 Yes

42 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

technIcal Box 4.3: gloBal competItIveness Index and growth

here we compare the contribution of the global Competitiveness index (gCi) and the eCi to economic growth. We use the ranking of countries in the gCi and the ranking of countries in eCi to predict growth using 5 and 10 year panels. as controls, we use the increase in natural resource exports during the period as well as the logarithm of the initial gDp per capita and year fixed effects. We estimate the contribution of the gCi and eCi to growth by taking the difference

between the r2 obtained for the equation in which they were both included and that in which one or the other is missing. table 4.3.1 shows that eliminating the rank of the eCi from the regression results in a much larger loss of explanatory power than removing the rank of gCi. this is true for both 5 and 10 year panels. Figure 4.9 on the main text illustrates these results.

TA B L E 4 . 3 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc
5 year panels 10 year panels

VARIABLES
Ranking of GCI

(1)
-0.00007* (0.000)

(2)
-0.00004 (0.000)

(3)

(4)
-0.00023 (0.000)

(5)
-0.00005 (0.000)

(6)

Ranking of ECI

-0.00009*** (0.000)

-0.00007*** (0.000) -0.00092*** (0.000) 0.00077 (0.009) -0.00180*** (0.000) 0.00578 (0.008)

-0.00064*** (0.000) -0.01384*** (0.004) 0.09135* -0.00439* (0.002) 0.04545

-0.00060*** (0.000) -0.01200*** (0.003) 0.08814*

Initial income per capita, logs

-0.00231*** (0.001)

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

0.00709 (0.008)

(0.048) Constant 0.02744*** (0.006) Observations Adjusted R2 Year FE
Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

(0.049) 0.06694*** (0.025) 83 0.074 Yes

(0.045) 0.15084*** (0.030) 83 0.228 Yes

0.01181*** (0.003) 104 0.123 Yes

0.02059*** (0.004) 104 0.204 Yes

0.17473*** (0.044) 83 0.233 Yes

104 0.255 Yes

SECTION 5
How Does Economic Complexity Evolve?

44 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

o economic complexity seems to matter: it affects a country’s level of income per capita and drives its future growth. It is also distinct from what is captured by measures of human capital, governance and competitiveness. But how does complexity evolve? How do societies increase the amount of productive knowledge embedded in them? What limits the speed of this process? And why does it happen in some places but not in others? Again, in our interpretation, the complexity of a country’s economy reflects the amount of productive knowledge it contains. This knowledge is costly to acquire and transfer, and is modularized into chunks we call capabilities. Capabilities are difficult to accumulate because doing so creates a complicated chicken and egg problem. On the one hand, countries cannot create products that require capabilities they do not have. On the other hand, there are scant incentives to accumulate capabilities in places where the industries that demand them do not exist. This is particularly true when the missing capabilities required by a potential new industry are many. In this case, supplying any single missing capability will not be enough to launch the new industry, given the absence of the other required capabilities. In a world in which capabilities are complementary, new capabilities risk not being demanded simply because other capabilities are not present. Consider the following example. A country that does not export fresh produce probably does not have either a coldstorage logistic chain, an expedited green lane at the customs service, or a food safety certification system. All are needed by potential produce exporters. Investors planning to provide the

S

capability to refrigerate and transport fresh produce would not get any traction because they would still need to certify their produce and get through customs fairly quickly. Yet, the systems that provide these services are not in place. It follows then that new capabilities will be more easily accumulated if they can be combined with others that already exist. This reduces the need to coordinate the accumulation of several new capabilities simultaneously. In our example, if only the green lane at the customs service was missing, it would be easier to develop the fresh produce export industry. For this reason, countries are more likely to move into products that make use of the capabilities that are already available. These capabilities are available, however, because they are being used to make other products. An implication of this is that a country will diversify by moving from the products they already produce to others that require a similar set of embedded knowledge. Arguably, it is easier to move from shirts to blouses than it is to move from shirts to engines. This is because, in terms of embedded knowledge, shirts are more similar to blouses than to engines. A testable implication of this logic is that countries will move into products that are similar, in terms of the capabilities they require, to the ones they already make. Measuring the similarity in the capability requirements of different products is not simple. Identifying the precise technical and institutional requirements of each product would involve collecting a mindboggling volume of information. Instead, here we measure similarity using a simple trick. If shirts require knowledge that is similar to that required by blouses, but different from that required by engines, then the probability that a country exporting shirts will also export blouses will be higher than the probability that it will

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 45

FIGURE 5.1:
The product space.

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MISC. AGRICULTURE

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

OTHER CHEMICALS

FOOD PROCESSING

PRECIOUS STONES

PETROCHEMICALS

METAL PRODUCTS

AGROCHEMICALS

TROPICAL AGRIC.

FISH & SEAFOOD

NOT CLASSIFIED

HOME & OFFICE

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

PULP & PAPER

ELECTRONICS

MEAT & EGGS

MACHINERY

GARMENTS

AIRCRAFT

TObACCO

LEATHER

bOILERS

also export engines. So the probability that a pair of products is co-exported carries information about how similar these products are. We use this idea to measure the proximity between all pairs of products in our dataset (see Technical Box 5.1 on Measuring Proximity). The collection of all proximities is a network connecting pairs of products that are significantly likely to be co-exported by many countries. We refer to this network as the product space and use it to study the productive structure of countries. We care about the structure of the product space because it affects the ability of countries to move into new products. Products that are tightly connected share most of the req-

uisite capabilities. If this is the case, then countries that already have what it takes to make one product will find it relatively easy to move to the next ones. A highly connected product space, therefore, makes the problem of growing the complexity of an economy easier. Conversely, a sparsely connected product space makes it harder. Once again, a metaphor may help to clarify these ideas. Imagine that the product space is a forest, where every product is a tree. Trees that require similar capabilities are near each other in the forest. Distant trees require very different capabilities. If countries are a collection of firms that make different products, we can think of firms as monkeys that live

MINING

SHIPS

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

46 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 5.2:
The product space revisited. The same as Figure 5.1 but with node sizes proportional to the Product Complexity Index (PCI).

on trees, meaning that they exploit certain products. Countries differ in the number and location of their monkeys in this common forest. The development process, which implies increasing product diversity and complexity, is akin to monkeys colonizing the forest, occupying more trees, and moving especially into the more complex or fruitier ones. When monkeys jump to nearby trees it minimizes the chicken and egg problem of having to accumulate several missing capabilities at once. Furthermore, if trees are densely packed together it will be relatively easy for monkeys to move from tree to tree and populate the forest. But if trees are far apart, monkeys may be stuck in their current activities. If the product space is heterogeneous, there may be some patches of highly related products, where adding capabilities and expanding into new products would be easier, and other patches of more loosely connected products that make the process of capability accumulation and diversification harder. What is the shape of the product space we live in? Is it a world in which the forest is dense or sparse? Figure 5.1 shows a visualization of the product space constructed using international trade data for the years 2006-2008. Here, nodes represent products and their size is proportional to total world trade in that good. Links connect products with a high probability of being co-exported (see Technical Box 5.2).

The visualization reveals that the product space is highly heterogeneous. Some sections of it are composed of densely connected groups of products whereas others tend to be more peripheral and sparse. The product space shows that many goods group naturally into highly connected communities. This suggests that products in these communities use a similar set of capabilities. We can identify communities because the products that belong to them are more closely connected to each other than to products outside of the community.Here, we use network science algorithms to discover the communities of products that are hidden in the data (see Technical Box 5.3 for a discussion of the method). We use these communities to make the discussion of products more tractable. The nearly 800 products in the SITC4 classification were grouped into 34 communities, which we identify by color in our visualization of the product space (Figure 5.1). The names, complexity, market size and other characteristics of the communities appear in Table 5.1. Figure 5.2 shows a visualization of the product space that is similar to Figure 5.1, but where the size of the nodes is proportional to the complexity of products they represent, as estimated by the Product Complexity Index (PCI). It shows that communities tend to have similar levels of complexity. Products in the Machinery, Electronics and Chemical com-

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 47

FIGURE 5.3:
Community characteristics. Average complexity of the products in each community as a function of its connectedness. Bubble size is proportional to the community’s participation in world trade.

3

2

Average Complexity

1

Percentage of World Trade in each community
22% of WT

0

-1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT

-2

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.06% of WT

Average Connectedness

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

OTHER CHEMICALS

MACHINERY

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

PETROCHEMICALS

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

FOOD PROCESSING

OIL

ELECTRONICS

AIRCRAFT

bOILERS

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

HOME & OFFICE

PULP & PAPER

AGROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

TROPICAL AGRIC.

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

MISC. AGRICULTURE

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

PRECIOUS STONES

METAL PRODUCTS

munities tend to be much more complex than those in the garments cluster or in peripheral communities such as Oil and Tropical Agriculture. Figure 5.3 shows some of the network characteristics of these communities. Connectedness is a measure of how centrally located a community is in the product space. It is the average proximity of a community’s products to all other products, where proximity is the measure of distance between two products used to construct the product space. The figure shows the average connectedness of the products in each community and their average complexity estimated by PCI. The figure reveals a positive relationship between how centrally located the communities are in the product space and how complex their products are. Poorly connected communities such as petroleum, cotton, rice and soybeans tend to be low in complexity. Machinery, by contrast, is very complex and highly connected. Sectors such as garments, textiles and food processing are, on the other hand, in an intermediate position, being connected but not very sophisticated. Electronics and health-related chemicals, however, are also very complex but not as connected as machinery. This suggests they use specific capabilities relevant within their communities but not outside of them. Previous research has shown that the probability that a country will make a new product is strongly related to

how close that product is to other products the country already makes. So the location of a country in the product space captures information regarding both the productive knowledge that it possesses and the capacity to expand that knowledge by moving into other nearby products. The ability of countries to diversify and to move into more complex products is crucially dependent on their initial location in the product space. The product space gives us a glimpse of the embedded knowledge of countries by highlighting the productive capabilities they posses and the opportunities these imply.We can evaluate a country’s overall position in the product space by calculating how far it is to alternative products and how complex these products are. We call this measure opportunity value and it can be thought of as the value of the option to move into more and more complex products (see Technical Box 5.4). Figure 5.4 compares opportunity value with the Economic Complexity Index and income. It shows that countries with low levels of complexity tend to have few opportunities available. This is because the products they do create tend to be peripheral in the product space. Complex economies tend to have few remaining opportunities because they already occupy a large fraction of the better part of the product space. Countries with an intermediate level of complexity, on the other hand, differ largely in their opportunity value. Some

TObACCO

MINING

SHIPS

FRUIT

COAL

48 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 5.4:
Opportunity Value as a function of the Economic Complexity Index and GDP per capita.

7

IND

7

IND

6

6

5

5
GRC

Opportunity Value

Opportunity Value

4

3

2

1

0

BGR TUR LTU SRB EGY BRA LBN PRT EST LVA UKR CHN ESP VNM NLD ARG CAN BEL THA ROU HRV ZAF BIH BLR HUN GBR FIN COL TUN TZA POL MEX GTM KOR SGP PAN ISR NZL SVK KEN ALB JOR HKG DNK CHE MYS UGA SEN CRI URY MDA SYR PAK SVN KGZ SLV IRL RUS AUS LKA HND MAR DOM MKD NOR PER SWE MDG MUS NAM KAZ GEO PHL NIC CHL USA PRY ARE CIV GHA ETHUZB ZWE TTOJAM ITA DZA LBR LAO ECU CZE BOL QAT SAU NGA LBY MLI MOZ BGD AG0 MWI CUB FRA ZMB OMN GIN GAB YEM COG BWA TJK CMR TKM VEN KHM MRT IRN SDN PNG AZEMNG KWT AUT IDN

GRC

4
IDN SRB UKR EGY CHN

BGR

TUR BRA LBN LTU EST LVA PRT

3

2

JPN

1

0 3 102

CAN ESP NLD BEL THA ZAF ARG ROU BIH BLR HR FIN GBR POL MEX COL TZA KOR ISR SGP TUN ALB HUN KEN SVK DNK GTM JOR NZL PAN MYS CHE HKG CRI URY UGA SEN PAK SLV IRL SVN KGZ MDA SYR AUS RUS LKA MAR DOM MKD HND NOR PER JPN SWE MDG MUS NAM PHL KAZ NIC GEO CHL PRY ITA ARE USA ZWE CIV TTO GHA LAO UZB ETH JAM SAU QAT LBR ECU IRN CZE BOL MOZ BGD CUB OMN FRA MLI NGA AGO DZA GAB BWA VEN LBY TCD YEM MNG KWT MWI COG TKM ZMB GIN KHM CMR TJK AZE MRT SDN PNG AUT VNM

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

103

104

105

Economic Complexity Index

GDP per capita [2008]

countries like Saudi Arabia, Jamaica and Chile, are located in parts of the product space that imply few opportunities. Others, like India, Greece, Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia are located in parts of the product space where opportunities are plentiful. Figure 5.4 also shows that countries with similar incomes face dramatically different opportunities. Finally, we illustrate how countries move through the product space by looking at Ghana, Poland, Thailand and Turkey (Figure 5.5). Here, square nodes with thick black outlines are used to indicate the products that each of these countries was exporting at each point in time. In all cases we see that new industries –new black squares– tend to lie close to the industries already present in these countries. The productive transformation undergone by Poland, Thailand and Turkey, however, look striking compared to that of Ghana. Thailand and Turkey, in particular, moved from mostly agricultural societies to manufacturing powerhouses during the 1975-2009 period. Poland, also “exploded” towards the center of the product space during the last two decades, becoming a manufacturer of most products in both the home and office and the processed foods community and significantly increasing its participation in the production of machinery. These transformations imply an increase in embedded knowledge that is reflected in our Economic Complexity Index. Ultimately, it is these transformations that underpinned the impressive growth performance of these countries. We started this section asking several questions: How does complexity evolve? And how do societies increase the

total amount of productive knowledge embedded in them? Here we have shown that countries expand their productive knowledge by moving into nearby goods. This increases the likelihood that the effort to accumulate any additional capability will be successful, as the complementary capabilities needed to make a new product are more likely to be present in the production of the nearby goods. What limits the speed of this process? Since capabilities are useful only when combined with others, the accumulation of capabilities is slowed down by the chicken and egg problem. New products may require capabilities that do not exist precisely because the other products that use them are not present. Moreover, since capabilities are chunks of tacit knowledge, accumulating them is difficult even when there is demand for them, because the country does not have any exemplars to copy. Most important, why does this process of development occur in some places, but not in others? There are many answers to this question. Our approach adds an alternative answer by showing that a country’s position in the product space determines its opportunities to expand its productive knowledge and increase its level of economic complexity. But the product space is highly heterogeneous, placing countries in radically different settings. Ultimately, development is the expression of the total amount of productive knowledge that is embedded in a society. But the process by which this knowledge is accumulated has a structure that we are only now starting to understand.

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 49

TA B L E 5 . 1 : ChARACTERISTICS Of PRODUCT COMMUnITIES

Community Name
Machinery Electronics Oil Chemicals & Health Other Chemicals Construction Materials & Equipment Mining Garments Food Processing Metal Products Aircraft Not Classified Cereals & Vegetable Oils Home & Office Meat & Eggs Ships Petrochemicals Boilers Fish & Seafood Textile & Fabrics Tropical Agriculture Coal Misc Agriculture Precious Stones Pulp & Paper Agrochemicals Milk & Cheese Beer, Spirits & Cigarettes Inorganic Salts & Acids Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others Tobacco Leather Fruit Animal Fibers

Average PCI
2.54 2.25 -2.08 2.52 1.67 0.77 -0.59 -0.43 -0.07 0.76 1.48 0.93 -0.34 1.16 0.64 0.83 1.22 1.56 -1.23 0.18 -1.95 0.21 -0.79 0.02 1.77 0.40 1.14 0.07 -0.22 -2.25 -1.46 -0.85 -0.58 -0.85

Number of Products
125 52 4 64 24 44 48 42 26 17 10 36 21 23 23 8 5 14 11 32 16 6 22 4 11 13 7 6 10 18 6 14 4 7

World Trade
4.4T 3.6T 2.3T 1.6T 1.2T 1.1T 1.1T 1.1T 603B 496B 440B 426B 295B 250B 242B 232B 220B 193B 191B 189B 190B 183B 170B 170B 148B 141B 134B 124B 117B 96B 64B 53B 45B 12B

World Share
20.29% 16.71% 10.49% 7.47% 5.49% 5.23% 5.01% 4.63% 2.74% 2.26% 2.00% 1.94% 1.34% 1.14% 1.10% 1.05% 1.00% 0.88% 0.87% 0.86% 0.86% 0.83% 0.78% 0.77% 0.67% 0.64% 0.61% 0.57% 0.53% 0.44% 0.29% 0.24% 0.21% 0.06%

Top 3 Countries by Export volume
DEU, USA, JPN CHN, HKG, USA SAU, RUS, NOR USA, DEU, BEL DEU, USA, FRA CHN, DEU, ITA AUS, USA, CHL CHN, HKG, ITA DEU, ITA, USA JPN, DEU, KOR FRA, DEU, GBR USA, CHN, DEU USA, BRA, ARG CHN, CHE, USA USA, BRA, DEU KOR, CHN, JPN DEU, USA, BEL CHN, DEU, JPN CHN, NOR, THA CHN, ITA, HKG IDN, NLD, MYS AUS, IDN, RUS BRA, DEU, FRA IND, ISR, BEL USA, CAN, SWE DEU, USA, CAN DEU, FRA, NLD GBR, NLD, DEU USA, CHN, DEU USA, IND, THA DEU, NLD, BRA ITA, USA, HKG ESP, USA, CHL AUS, CHN, ITA

Top 3 Countries by Number of Products (RCA>1)
DEU, ITA, AUT CHN, HKG, MYS EGY, KAZ, DZA USA, BEL, DEU DEU, ITA, ESP CZE, POL, SVN CAN, AUS, KAZ CHN, VNM, TUN SRB, ESP, BEL ZAF, UKR, SVK CAN, GBR, FRA CHN, FRA, GBR PRY, MDA, ARG CHN, PAN, PRT FRA, BEL, POL ROU, POL, HRV PRT, BEL, FRA CHN, TUR, KOR CHL, NAM, SYC CHN, TUR, IND IDN, CIV, CRI CZE, COL, RUS ESP, TZA, NIC GBR, LBN, LKA SWE, FIN, CAN BEL, JOR, DEU NLD, BLR, LTU JAM, BEL, NLD ISR, JOR, USA TZA, MOZ, GRC PHL, GRC, SEN ALB, SOM, ESP NLD, LBN, LTU URY, NZL, ZAF

50 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 5.5:
The evolution of Ghana, Poland, Thailand and Turkey in the product space: 1975, 1990 and 2009. Black boxes indicate the products in which these countries had RCA>1.

1975
ELECTRONICS MACHINERY AIRCRAFT BOILERS SHIPS METAL PRODUCTS CONSTR. MATL. & EQPT. HOME & OFFICE PULP & PAPER CHEMICALS & HEALTH AGROCHEMICALS OTHER CHEMICALS INOR. SALTS & ACIDS PETROCHEMICALS LEATHER MILK & CHEESE ANIMAL FIBERS MEAT & EGGS FISH & SEAFOOD TROPICAL AGRIC. CEREALS & VEG. OILS COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS TOBACCO FRUIT MISC. AGRICULTURE NOT CLASSIFIED TEXTILE & FABRICS GARMENTS FOOD PROCESSING BEER/SPIRITS & CIGS. PRECIOUS STONES COAL OIL MINING

GHANA

POLAND

THAILAND

TURKEY

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 51

1990

2009

52 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

technIcal Box 5.1: measurIng proxImIty
to make products you need chunks of embedded knowledge which we call capabilities. the capabilities needed to produce one good may or may not be useful in the production of other goods. since we do not observe capabilities directly, we create a measure that infers the similarity between the capabilities required by a pair of goods by looking at the probability that they are coexported. to quantify this similarity we assume that if two goods share most of the requisite capabilities, the countries that export one will also export the other. By the same token, goods that do not share many capabilities are less likely to be co-exported. our measure is based on the conditional probability that a country that exports product will also export product (Figure 5.1.1). since conditional probabilities are not symmetric we take the minimum of the probability of exporting product , given and the reverse, to make the measure symmetric and more FIGURE 5.1.1:
An illustrative example for the proximity measure.

stringent. For instance, in the year 2008, 17 countries exported wine, 24 exported grapes and 11 exported both, all with rCa>1. then, the proximity between wines and grapes is 11/24=0.46. note that we divide by 24 instead of 17 to minimize false positives. Formally, for a pair of goods and we define proximity as:

Where =1 if country exports product with rCa>1 and 0 otherwise. the ubiquity of product .

is

X-RAY MACHINES

MEDICAMENTS

X-RAY MACHINES

P=1

MEDICAMENTS

NETHERLANDS (NLD)

P = 1/2

P = 1/3

CHEESE

CREAMS AND POLISHES

FROZEN FISH

CHEESE CREAMS AND POLISHES

FROZEN FISH

ARGENTINA (ARG)

GHANA (GHA)

t e c h n I c a l B ox 5 . 2 : v I s u a l I z I n g t h e p r o d u c t s pac e
to visualize the product space we use some simple design criteria. First, we want the visualization of the product space to be a connected network. By this, we mean avoiding islands of isolated products. the second criteria is that we want the network visualization to be relatively sparse. trying to visualize too many links can create unnecessary visual complexity where the most relevant connections will be occluded. this criteria is achieved by creating a visualization in which the average number of links per node is not larger than 5 and results in a representation that can summarize the structure of the product space using the strongest 1% of the links. to make sure the visualization of the product space is connected, we calculate the maximum spanning tree (Mst) of the proximity matrix. Mst is the set of links that connects all the nodes in the network using a minimum number of connections and the maximum possible sum of proximities. We calculated the Mst using Kruskal’s algorithm. Basically the algorithm sorts the values of the proximity matrix in descending order and then includes links in the Mst if and only if they connect an isolated product. By definition, the Mst includes all products, but the number of links is the minimum possible. the second step is to add the strongest connections that were not selected for the Mst. in this visualization we included the first 1,006 connections satisfying our criterion. By definition a spanning tree for 774 nodes contains 773 edges. With the additional 1,006 connections we end up with 1,779 edges and an average degree of nearly 4.6. after selecting the links using the above mentioned criteria we build a visualization using a Force-Directed layout algorithm. in this algorithm nodes repel each other, just like electric charges, while edges act as spring trying to bring connected nodes together. this helps to create a visualization in which densely connected sets of nodes are put together while nodes that are not connected are pushed apart. Finally, we manually clean up the layout to minimize edge crossings and provide the most clearly representation possible.

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 53

technIcal Box 5.3: IdentIfyIng product communItIes

in network science, groups of highly interconnected nodes are known as communities. in the product space, communities represent groups of products that are likely to require many of the same capabilities. We assign products to communities using the algorithm introduced by rosvall and Bergstrom (2008). this algorithm finds communities using a two step process. First, it explores the network using a collection of random walkers. the intuition behind this first step is that nodes belonging to the same community are more likely to lie close by in the sequence of nodes visited by a random walker. For instance, take photographic film, photographic chemicals and silicones. these are three products that are interconnected and belong to a densely connected region of the product space. hence, the random walker is much more likely to go through the sequences {silicones, photographic chemicals, photographic film} or {photographic film, silicones, photographic chemicals} than {photographic film, grapes, blouses}. the emergence of these sequences indicates that photographic film, photographic chemicals and silicones, probably belong to the same community. after several iterations of random walks have been recorded, the algorithm tries to compresses these sequences by looking for ways to rename nodes and minimize the amount of space required to store information about these sequences. For instance, if silicones, photographic films, and photographic chemicals are grouped into a community called photographic materials this would allow compressing the sequence by replacing each time it appears by a reference to that community. the algorithm looks for a compression that preserves as much information as possible. this avoids the trivial solution in which all products are assigned to the same community. the communities determined through this algorithm were manually named and merged into 34 communities (see table 5.1 for details). We compare the ability of these communities to summarize the structure of the product space by introducing a measure of community quality. this is the ratio between the average proximity of the links within a community, and those connecting products from that community to products in other communities. to get a sense of the community quality we compare our assignment of products into communities with a baseline null model and three popular categorizations. the baseline null model is given by an ensemble of communities of the same size, where nodes have been assigned to each community at random. in this case, the average strength of the links within communities is equal to the average strength of links between communities, and the community quality is 1. the three categorizations we use as comparators are: the first digit of the standard international trade Classification, the categories introduced by Leamer (1984) -based on factor intensities- and the technology categories introduced by Lall (2000). all three classifications produce values of the community quality between 1.3 and 1.4, indicating that links within communities tend to be, on average, 30% to 40% stronger than those between communities. the communities we propose here have a community quality value of 1.94, indicating that the links between nodes in the same community are, on average, 94% stronger than those connecting nodes between communities (Figure 5.3.1). the difference in community quality of our proposed community system and that of the three alternative categorizations is highly statistically significant with a -value<1x10-30.

FIGURE 5.3.1:
Community quality for five different ways of grouping products.

2.0

1.94

1.5
1.34

1.36

1.39

Community Quality

1.0

1.0+0.005

0.5

Random

0.0

SITC-1

Lall

Leamer

Communities

54 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

t e c h n I c a l B o x 5 . 4 : u n d e r s ta n d I n g t h e p o s I t I o n o f c o u n t r I e s I n t h e p r o d u c t s pa c e : d I s ta n c e , o p p o r t u n I t y va l u e a n d o p p o r t u n I t y g a I n

empirically, we find that countries move through the product space by developing goods close to those they currently produce. But countries do not make just one product; they make a certain number. proximity measures the similarity between a pair of products, so we need another measure to quantify the distance between the products that a country makes and each of the products that it does not. We call this measure distance and define it as the sum of the proximities connecting a new good p to all the products that country is not currently exporting. We normalize distance by dividing it by the sum of proximities between all products and product . in other words, distance is the weighted proportion of products connected to good p that country c is not exporting. the weights are given by proximities. if country exports most of the goods connected to product , then the distance will be short, close to 0. But, if country only exports a small proportion of the products that are related to product , then the distance will be large (close to 1). Formally,

are. We can think of this as the value of the option to move into other products. hence, to quantify the “opportunity value” of a country’s unexploited prospects we can add the level of complexity of the products that it is not currently weighted by how close these products are to the country’s current export suite. We can write this mathematically as:

Distance gives us an idea of how far each product is given a country’s current mix of exports. yet, it would be useful to have a holistic measure of the opportunities implied by a country’s position in the product space. Countries that make products that are relatively complex, given their current level of income, tend to grow faster. hence, it makes sense to include not only the distance to products, but also their complexity. some countries may be located near few, poorly connected and relatively simple products, while others may have a rich unexploited neighborhood of highly connected or complex products. this means that countries differ not just in what they make but in what their opportunities

Where pCi is the product Complexity index of product . the term makes sure that we count only the products that the country is not currently producing. higher opportunity value implies being in the vicinity of more products and/or of products that are more complex. We can use opportunity value to calculate the potential benefit to a country if it were to move to a particular new product. We call this the “opportunity gain” that country c would obtain from making product . this is calculated as the change in opportunity value that would come as a consequence of developing product . opportunity gain quantifies the contribution of a new product in terms of opening up the doors to more and more complex products. Formally, we can write the opportunity gain as:

How Can This Atlas Be Used?

SECTION 6

56 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

I

n recent years there has been an explosion in the use of indexes to rank countries, corporations, cities and other entities in terms of a myriad of indicators. We have the Human Development Index, put together by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Freedom House’s Freedom Index, the World Bank’s Doing Business, Investment Climate Assessment and Governance indexes, the World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness, Gender Gap and Trade Facilitation indexes, the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the credit ratings of governments and corporations put together by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, and the Quality of Development Assistance published by the Center for Global Development. The popularity and usefulness of these efforts reflect the fact that they provide feedback about the relative performance of an entity on dimensions that societies find important and that the publishers want to highlight. The indexes may help the rated entities to evolve towards better outcomes by benchmarking current performance, vis-a-vis the best achievers, and by encouraging learning through imitation and experimentation around best practices. Here it may be useful to distinguish between the two roles of any indicator. The first one is as a measure and the second one is as a guide to action. As a measure, the critical question is whether the index is able to adequately represent the information that one wants to capture, whether it is freedom, human development, solvency, business environment, governance, educational quality or, in our case, productive knowledge. As a guide to action the question is what inter-

ventions will lead an entity to improve its performance on the index. With respect to the latter question, indexes differ in how clearly they map to a plan of action. At one extreme, the World Bank’s Doing Business Index is based on the statutory requirements to perform certain functions such as registering and closing a business or obtaining a license. Here the course of action is clear: change the statutes in a direction that would improve the re-calculated index. However, in other cases, such as improving rule of law, educational quality, gender equality, the control of corruption or competitiveness, the mapping is not so clear. It is hard to know precisely which changes in current practice would be reflected in better performance. This is a general problem in many areas where the relationship between action and performance is complex. Should schools reduce class size, improve teacher training, increase nutritional assistance or implement standardized exams in order to improve educational quality? Should societies get more policemen, revamp the judicial system, encourage press freedom, revise their gun laws or confront organized crime in order to improve rule of law? The best humans have been able to do is to emulate some of the features of the best performers in the hopes that the elements that were selected for imitation may prove crucial to the achievement of better outcomes. If they do, this will hopefully be reflected in future measures of the index. If they do not, other actions will be tried until the action taken is consistently followed by a change in the desired direction. In our case, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is based on the number and the complexity of the products that a country exports with comparative advantage. Empirically,

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 57

countries that do well in this index, given their income level, tend to achieve higher levels of economic growth. The ability to successfully export new products is a reflection of the fact that the country has acquired new productive knowledge that will then open up further opportunities for progress. What a country needs to do to achieve this will be highly specific to the context of the country and the product. Better seeds could cause an agricultural revolution; improved infrastructure could open up new possibilities for light manufactures; clarifying property rights and human subject regulations may allow for participation in pharmaceutical research; changing the responsiveness of training institutions to the needs of new sectors may unleash their growth; etc. The Economic Complexity Index is not easy to manipulate through a narrow set of decisions. Ultimately, countries improve on the index by being able to increase the number of different activities they can successfully engage in and by moving towards activities that are more complex. The policy message for most countries is clear: create an environment where a greater diversity of productive activities can thrive and, in particular, activities that are relatively more complex. Countries are more likely to succeed in this agenda if they focus on products that are close to their current set of productive capabilities, as this would facilitate the identification and provision of the missing capabilities. The ECI therefore, is accompanied by maps that help chart the opportunities and rewards available for each country. These are maps that are specific to each country and do not represent one-size-fits-all development advice. These maps, however, could also be used by firms search-

ing for a new location or looking to diversify into a new product. These maps carry information about the productive capabilities that are present in a given country and the degree to which these capabilities are relevant to support a particular new industry. A map does not tell people where to go, but it does help them determine their destination and chart their journey towards it. A map empowers by describing opportunities that would not be obvious in the absence of it. If the secret to development is the accumulation of productive knowledge, at a societal rather than individual level, then the process necessarily requires the involvement of many explorers, not just a few planners. This is why the maps we provide in this Atlas are intended for everyone to use.

Which Countries Are Included in This Atlas?

SEC T I O N 7

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 59

C

ountries are highly heterogeneous. When it comes to the size of their population, territory, income and economy, countries differ by orders of magnitude. When it comes to land, Russia is 1,000 times larger than Kuwait. When it comes to population, China is more than 600 times more populous than Slovenia. When it comes to Gross Domestic Product, the United States is more than 1,300 times larger than Namibia. All of these are countries that made it into this Atlas, illustrating the large cross section of the world captured in this book. Products also differ enormously in terms of their world market size. Depending on the year, crude oil represents five to ten percent of world trade while goat skins represent less than one part in one hundred thousand of world trade. To make countries and products comparable we control for the size of the country and of the product by calculating their Revealed Comparative Advantage (see Technical Box 2.2). This means that large and small countries and products with big and small markets count the same as far as our method is concerned. Moreover, the data of each country affects the calculations of all others so including data that is noisy or unreliable greatly affects the integrity of our calculations. Countries that are too small in terms of their export base, such as Tuvalu or Vanuatu, or with data that is highly unreliable or not adequately classified, do not provide us with a sufficiently broad sample to infer their structure. This is why we restrict the analysis to 128 countries, which account for 99% of world trade, 97% of the world’s total GDP and 95% of the world’s population. To generate this list we used a variety of criteria. First, we

limit ourselves only to the set of countries for which there is product-level trade data available in the UN COMTRADE and income data available for 2008. Second, we only use data on countries with a population above 1,200,000. Third, we only consider countries that exported at least 1 billion dollars per year, on average, between 2006 and 2008. Finally we remove from this sample Iraq, Macau and Chad, three countries with severe data quality issues (Figure 7.1).

F I G U R E 7. 1 :
Schematic of the procedure used to determine the countries that were included in the Atlas.

All countries
with GDP and Export information

185 countries
Population above 1,200,000

147 countries
Trade above $1 Billion

131 countries
Reliable Data (excluding Iraq, Chad and Macau)

128 countries

PA R T 2

CoMPleXItY RaNKINGs

in this part we present five different rankings. these rankings sort countries according to: ranKing 1: economic Complexity index (eCi). ranKing 2: expected growth in per Capita gDp to 2020. ranKing 3: expected gDp growth to 2020. ranKing 4: Change in economic Complexity (19642008). ranKing 5: expected Contribution to World gDp growth to 2020.

each of these five rankings captures a different aspect of the world economy. this is well illustrated by the five countries that make it to the top of each ranking. according to the aforementioned ranking order, these are: Japan, China, Uganda, Mauritius and the United states. the heterogeneity of this group shows the wide range of dimensions that are captured by these five different rankings (table 1). next, we comment each one of them briefly, and invite readers to explore them by themselves.

TAbLE 1
Correlations between the five different rankings. The low correlations between the rankings indicate that these tend to capture different dimensions of the world economy.

R2: Per capita Growth Potential R1: Economic Complexity R2: Per capita Growth Potential R3: Total Growth R4: Change in Complexity
0.45

R3: Total Growth
-0.22 0.54

R4: Change in Complexity
0.17 0.57 0.54

R5: Contribution to World GDP
0.58 0.09 -0.13 -0.09

RANKING 1:

Economic Complexity Index

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 63

ranking 1 shows the Economic Complexity ranking. Here
countries are sorted based on the amount of productive knowledge that is implied in their export structures (see Part 1, Section 2: How do we measure economic complexity?). The countries in the top ten of this ranking are Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, Finland, Singapore, Czech Republic, the UK and Slovenia. Immediately after the top 10 we have France, Korea and the US. Of the top 20 countries, half are in Western Europe, 3 are in East Asia, and surprisingly 4 are in Eastern Europe. Israel and Mexico close the list of the top 20. These are countries with productive structures that are able to hold vast amounts of productive knowledge, and that manufacture and export a large number of sophisticated goods. At the bottom of the economic complexity ranking we have Papua New Guinea, The Republic of Congo, Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. Figure 1 illustrates the relative levels of economic complexity of countries in Ranking 1 by plotting ECI as a function of a country’s current level of GDP per capita. In Map 1, countries are color coded according to their position in ranking 1. Interestingly the least complex countries in Western Europe are Portugal (35) and Greece (53), two countries whose high income cannot be explained by either their complexity or their natural resource wealth. We do not think that this is unrelated to their present difficulties: their current income has been propped up by massive capital inflows and, as these decline to more sustainable levels, the internal weaknesses come to the fore. The ECI, however, illustrates clearly how these mismatches can be identified from the data.

by region:
By region, the most complex economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary, while the worst performing ones are Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. In Latin America and the Caribbean the best performers are Mexico (ranked 20), Panama (30) and Costa Rica (49); Brazil ranks fourth (52 in the worldwide scale) followed by Colombia (54). The worst performers are Ecuador (93), Nicaragua (97), Bolivia (101) and Venezuela (111). In East Asia and the Pacific, the best performers are Japan (1), Singapore (7) and Korea (12), followed by Hong Kong (24), China (29) and Thailand (31). The worst performers are Lao (102), Mongolia (113) and Papua New Guinea (124). In South Asia, the best performing country is India (51) followed by Sri Lanka (71) and Pakistan (82). The list is closed by Bangladesh (103). Finally, In Sub-Saharan Africa the most complex economies are South Africa (55), Namibia (72), Kenya (73), Senegal (74) and Mauritius (77). The worst performers are Guinea (123), the Republic of Congo (125), Sudan (126), Angola (127) and Mauritania (128). We note that many African countries are not in the rank because they did not satisfy our data filtering criteria (see Part 1, Section 7: Which countries are in the Atlas?). In the Middle East and North Africa, the best performers are Israel (19), Lebanon (44), Jordan (45), Tunisia (47) and Egypt (53). The worst performers are Kuwait (116), Iran (118) and Libya (119), where the overwhelming presence of oil indicates a narrow base of productive knowledge.

64 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

REGIONAL ECI RANKING
1/16 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 5/16 2/16 1/27 6/16 2/27 7/16 3/16 1/2 3/27 4/27 8/16 9/16 10/16 1/16 1/21 5/27 11/16 12/16 4/16 6/27 7/27 8/27 13/16 5/16 2/21 6/16 9/27 14/16 7/16 15/16 10/27 11/27 12/27 13/27 14/27 2/2 15/27 16/27

COUNTRY NAME
JAPAN GERMANY SWITZERLAND SWEDEN AUSTRIA FINLAND SINGAPORE CZECH REPUBLIC UNITED KINGDOM SLOVENIA FRANCE KOREA, REP. UNITED STATES HUNGARY SLOVAK REPUBLIC ITALY DENMARK IRELAND ISRAEL MEXICO BELARUS BELGIUM NETHERLANDS HONG KONG SAR, CHINA POLAND CROATIA ROMANIA SPAIN CHINA PANAMA THAILAND ESTONIA NORWAY MALAYSIA PORTUGAL LITHUANIA SERBIA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA LATVIA BULGARIA CANADA UKRAINE TURKEY

ISO CODE
JPN DEU CHE SWE AUT FIN SGP CZE GBR SVN FRA KOR USA HUN SVK ITA DNK IRL ISR MEX BLR BEL NLD HKG POL HRV ROU ESP CHN PAN THA EST NOR MYS PRT LTU SRB BIH LVA BGR CAN UKR TUR

ECI 2008
2.316 1.985 1.935 1.859 1.807 1.715 1.639 1.628 1.558 1.523 1.473 1.469 1.447 1.430 1.379 1.308 1.267 1.231 1.164 1.145 1.116 1.085 1.044 1.023 1.020 0.989 0.936 0.933 0.894 0.831 0.814 0.791 0.777 0.759 0.696 0.683 0.644 0.597 0.594 0.587 0.571 0.559 0.444

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
17 16 3 13 10 11 19 29 20 27 15 30 9 37 32 21 4 6 26 49 64 12 8 23 40 36 52 22 81 54 78 35 1 55 28 41 60 68 38 57 18 87 47

INCOME 2009 [USD]
39,738 40,670 63,629 43,654 45,562 44,581 36,537 18,139 35,165 23,726 41,051 17,078 45,989 12,868 16,176 35,084 55,992 51,049 26,256 8,143 5,075 43,671 47,917 30,065 11,273 14,222 7,500 31,774 3,744 7,155 3,893 14,238 79,089 7,030 21,903 11,141 5,872 4,525 11,616 6,423 39,599 2,468 8,215

REGION
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA NORTH AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 65

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

REGIONAL ECI RANKING
2/16 3/16 17/27 4/16 8/16 3/21 18/27 1/4 4/21 16/16 5/21 1/26 6/21 7/21 19/27 9/16 8/21 10/16 20/27 5/16 9/21 10/21 6/16 11/16 7/16 21/27 22/27 2/4 2/26 3/26 4/26 8/16 11/21 5/26 12/21 12/16 6/26 13/21 3/4 9/16 14/21 10/16 15/21

COUNTRY NAME
LEBANON JORDAN RUSSIAN FEDERATION TUNISIA NEW ZEALAND COSTA RICA MOLDOVA INDIA BRAZIL GREECE COLOMBIA SOUTH AFRICA URUGUAY ARGENTINA ALBANIA PHILIPPINES EL SALVADOR INDONESIA MACEDONIA, FYR EGYPT, ARAB REP. DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GUATEMALA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES VIETNAM SAUDI ARABIA KYRGYZ REPUBLIC GEORGIA SRI LANKA NAMIBIA KENYA SENEGAL SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO MAURITIUS CHILE AUSTRALIA ZIMBABWE JAMAICA PAKISTAN MOROCCO CUBA QATAR PARAGUAY

ISO CODE
LBN JOR RUS TUN NZL CRI MDA IND BRA GRC COL ZAF URY ARG ALB PHL SLV IDN MKD EGY DOM GTM ARE VNM SAU KGZ GEO LKA NAM KEN SEN SYR TTO MUS CHL AUS ZWE JAM PAK MAR CUB QAT PRY

ECI 2008
0.403 0.325 0.324 0.294 0.287 0.278 0.266 0.247 0.244 0.214 0.200 0.131 0.109 0.106 0.087 0.032 0.026 -0.007 -0.018 -0.021 -0.064 -0.099 -0.106 -0.181 -0.201 -0.240 -0.263 -0.265 -0.271 -0.276 -0.287 -0.290 -0.306 -0.307 -0.312 -0.321 -0.327 -0.343 -0.398 -0.400 -0.426 -0.438 -0.474

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
48 73 45 80 24 58 97 99 46 25 63 61 44 50 79 95 82 89 69 90 66 84 7 105 34 114 88 92 72 115 109 86 33 56 43 14 122 70 111 83 62 2 91

INCOME 2009 [USD]
8,175 4,216 8,684 3,792 29,352 6,386 1,516 1,192 8,230 29,240 5,126 5,786 9,420 7,626 3,808 1,752 3,424 2,349 4,515 2,270 4,637 2,661 50,070 1,113 14,799 860 2,449 2,068 4,267 738 1,023 2,474 15,841 6,735 9,644 42,279 449 4,471 955 2,811 5,596 69,754 2,242

REGION
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

66 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128

REGIONAL ECI RANKING
7/26 16/21 17/21 8/26 11/16 23/27 18/21 9/26 10/26 24/27 19/21 13/16 11/26 12/26 20/21 14/16 4/4 13/26 14/26 15/26 12/16 25/27 16/26 17/26 21/21 18/26 15/16 13/16 26/27 14/16 27/27 15/16 16/16 19/26 20/26 21/26 22/26 16/16 23/26 24/26 25/26 26/26

COUNTRY NAME
UGANDA HONDURAS PERU MADAGASCAR OMAN KAZAKHSTAN ECUADOR BOTSWANA TANZANIA UZBEKISTAN NICARAGUA CAMBODIA CÔTE D'IVOIRE GHANA BOLIVIA LAO PDR BANGLADESH ETHIOPIA ZAMBIA MALAWI YEMEN, REP. TAJIKISTAN MOZAMBIQUE MALI VENEZUELA, RB LIBERIA MONGOLIA ALGERIA TURKMENISTAN KUWAIT AZERBAIJAN IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. LIBYA GABON CAMEROON NIGERIA GUINEA PAPUA NEW GUINEA CONGO, REP. SUDAN ANGOLA MAURITANIA

ISO CODE
UGA HND PER MDG OMN KAZ ECU BWA TZA UZB NIC KHM CIV GHA BOL LAO BGD ETH ZMB MWI YEM TJK MOZ MLI VEN LBR MNG DZA TKM KWT AZE IRN LBY GAB CMR NGA GIN PNG COG SDN AGO MRT

ECI 2008
-0.488 -0.518 -0.576 -0.594 -0.604 -0.608 -0.619 -0.620 -0.637 -0.658 -0.661 -0.702 -0.868 -0.868 -0.879 -0.880 -0.887 -0.892 -0.933 -1.024 -1.042 -1.054 -1.077 -1.103 -1.109 -1.128 -1.166 -1.213 -1.217 -1.219 -1.223 -1.229 -1.304 -1.364 -1.403 -1.418 -1.444 -1.577 -1.707 -1.768 -1.793 -1.907

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
121 93 71 123 31 53 74 59 120 101 108 117 106 107 94 112 119 126 110 127 104 116 124 118 39 128 96 76 77 5 65 67 42 51 102 103 125 100 85 98 75 113

INCOME 2009 [USD]
490 1,918 4,469 438 16,207 7,257 4,202 6,064 503 1,156 1,069 706 1,106 1,098 1,758 940 551 344 990 310 1,118 716 428 691 11,490 222 1,573 4,029 3,904 54,260 4,899 4,540 9,714 7,502 1,136 1,118 407 1,172 2,601 1,294 4,081 919

REGION
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SOUTH ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 67

MAP 1:
Countries are color coded according to their position in Ranking 1.

Rank
1 128

FIGURE 1:
Illustrates the relative levels of economic complexity of countries in Ranking 1 by plotting ECI as a function of a country’s current level of GDP per capita.

2.5 2 1.5
Economic Complexity Index [2008]
CZE HUN KOR SVK BLR CHN THA UKR BIH MEX ROU PAN MYS POL HRV LTU LVA EST

JPN DEU CHE SWE AUT FIN SGP GBR SVN FRA USA ITA DNK IRL ISR BEL HKG NLD ESP PRT CAN NZL GRC ARE AUS QAT NOR

1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 10
2
LBR

TUR LBN JOR RUS CRI BRA MDA TUN IND COL ZAF ARG URY ALB PHL IDN SLV MKD EGY DOM GTM VNM SAU KGZ SEN GEO LKA SYR NAM KEN TTO MUS CHL ZWE JAM PAK MAR CUB PRY UGA HND MDG PER KAZ OMN UZB ECU BWA TZA KHM NIC GHA BOL LAO CIV BGD ETH ZMB MWI YEM TJK MOZ VEN MLI DZA MNG TKM AZE IRN LBY GAB CMR GIN NGA PNG COG SDN AGO MRT

SRB BGR

KWT

10 10 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

3

4

10

5

RANKING 2:

Expected Growth in Per Capita GDP to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 69

ranking 2 sorts countries according to their expected annual per capita growth. Here countries are sorted according to their per capita growth potential, which is estimated from the mismatch between a country’s current level of aggregate output (GDP per capita) and their level of economic complexity (see Part 1, Section 3: Why is complexity important?). China, India and Thailand are at the top of this ranking, since they are countries with economies that are remarkably complex, given their current level of income, and are expected to catch up faster than other developing nations. Next come Belarus, Moldova, Zimbabwe, Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina, five countries where the current level of income is dramatically lower than what one would expect given their productive capabilities. This ranking shows that the two regions of the world where the potential of per capita growth is higher are East Asia and Eastern Europe (Map 2). At the bottom of this ranking we have Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. These are developing countries where the complexity of their economies does not provide a basis for future economic growth, and, where changes in income are dominated by fluctuations in the price and volume of natural resource activities. Per capita growth potential as a function of GDP per capita is illustrated in Figure 2. The projection presented here is driven mainly by the gap between the initial level of complexity of an economy and its level of income. Countries whose income level is low relative to their complexity will grow faster. The opposite occurs for countries whose initial income is high, relative to their initial complexity. The projection requires an assumption about the evolution of natural resource exports. We assume that they will remain constant in real terms at the high level achieved in 2008. We believe this hypothesis is reasonable on average, as commodity prices were unusually high in 2008. To the extent that prices deviate from this assumption, so will growth. We do not include information regarding the changes in the

extraction volumes of natural resource in the different countries, so we will tend to underestimate growth in countries where natural resource production is expanding faster than population and overestimating it where it is falling.

by region:
By region, the top performers in East Asia and the Pacific are China (1), Thailand (3), Philippines (11), Vietnam (12) and Malaysia (20), while the worst performance is expected in New Zealand (93), Mongolia (107), Australia (114), and Papua New Guinea (123). In South Asia, India is the regional leader (2), while Bangladesh is the laggard (65). In the Middle East and North Africa, the expected leaders in GDP per capita growth are Jordan (14), Egypt (18) and Tunisia (19), while the laggards are Libya (120), Qatar (122) and Kuwait (124), three oil exporters that are dragged down by their low complexity and by our assumption that oil exports per real terms will remain at 2008 levels. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the leaders in GDP per capita growth are expected to be Belarus (4), Moldova (5), Ukraine (7) and Bosnia (8). The laggards would be Kazakhstan (98), Turkmenistan (109) and Azerbaijan (112), three low-complexity oil exporters. To the extent that they will carry out their planned expansion in their oil exports, their growth performance will be better than we project. In Latin America the leaders are Panama (9), Mexico (10), El Salvador (31), Guatemala (35) and Colombia (36), while the laggards are expected to be Chile (86), Bolivia (89), Trinidad and Tobago (103) and Venezuela (115), four exporters of natural resources. Brazil ranks 8th in the region and 48th in the world in expected GDP per capita growth. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth leaders are expected to be Zimbabwe (6), Kenya (13), Uganda (24) and Senegal (25), while the laggards are expected to be Sudan (126), Angola (127) and Mauritania (128).

70 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020
RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

REGIONAL RANKING EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
1/16 1/4 2/16 1/27 2/27 1/26 3/27 4/27 1/21 2/21 3/16 4/16 2/26 1/16 5/27 6/27 7/27 2/16 3/16 5/16 6/16 8/27 9/27 3/26 4/26 10/27 2/4 7/16 11/27 12/27 3/21 13/27 4/16 5/26 4/21 5/21 3/4 6/21 6/26 14/27 7/26 15/27 16/27

COUNTRY NAME
CHINA INDIA THAILAND BELARUS MOLDOVA ZIMBABWE UKRAINE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA PANAMA MEXICO PHILIPPINES VIETNAM KENYA JORDAN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC ROMANIA SERBIA EGYPT, ARAB REP. TUNISIA MALAYSIA INDONESIA HUNGARY BULGARIA UGANDA SENEGAL CZECH REPUBLIC PAKISTAN KOREA, REP. SLOVAK REPUBLIC POLAND EL SALVADOR ALBANIA LEBANON MADAGASCAR GUATEMALA COLOMBIA SRI LANKA COSTA RICA TANZANIA CROATIA SOUTH AFRICA MACEDONIA, FYR TURKEY

ISO CODE
CHN IND THA BLR MDA ZWE UKR BIH PAN MEX PHL VNM KEN JOR KGZ ROU SRB EGY TUN MYS IDN HUN BGR UGA SEN CZE PAK KOR SVK POL SLV ALB LBN MDG GTM COL LKA CRI TZA HRV ZAF MKD TUR

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020
4.32% 4.26% 4.05% 3.99% 3.95% 3.79% 3.73% 3.59% 3.58% 3.50% 3.50% 3.48% 3.46% 3.42% 3.41% 3.39% 3.38% 3.37% 3.36% 3.32% 3.32% 3.31% 3.30% 3.29% 3.27% 3.11% 3.11% 3.09% 3.08% 3.07% 3.06% 3.05% 3.05% 3.03% 3.02% 3.02% 2.97% 2.97% 2.93% 2.92% 2.90% 2.84% 2.83%

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009
9.6% 5.6% 3.1% 7.9% 4.8% -6.2% 5.2% 4.1% 3.9% 0.8% 2.6% 6.0% 0.9% 3.7% 3.7% 4.9% 3.9% 2.9% 3.6% 2.8% 3.8% 2.9% 5.5% 3.7% 1.3% 3.1% 2.2% 3.9% 4.4% 4.1% 1.7% 5.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.9% 2.4% 4.1% 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
81 99 78 64 97 123 87 68 54 49 95 105 115 73 114 52 60 90 80 55 89 37 57 122 109 29 111 30 32 40 82 79 48 124 84 63 92 58 121 36 61 69 47

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020
3,744 1,192 3,893 5,075 1,516 449 2,468 4,525 7,155 8,143 1,752 1,113 738 4,216 860 7,500 5,872 2,270 3,792 7,030 2,349 12,868 6,423 490 1,023 18,139 955 17,078 16,176 11,273 3,424 3,808 8,175 438 2,661 5,126 2,068 6,386 503 14,222 5,786 4,515 8,215 70 97 69 61 95 122 84 65 51 44 93 99 114 68 111 50 58 89 75 53 86 36 54 120 101 29 107 30 31 38 79 76 46 123 85 64 91 56 121 32 60 67 47

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]
5,962 1,886 6,023 7,806 2,321 676 3,694 6,669 10,529 11,894 2,560 1,622 1,073 6,101 1,244 10,823 8,467 3,268 5,456 10,071 3,363 18,420 9,178 700 1,457 25,415 1,336 23.866 22,579 15,727 4,770 5,302 11,373 608 3,693 7,107 2,852 8,807 691 19,528 7,920 6,141 11,168 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SOUTH ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 71

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020
RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

REGIONAL RANKING EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
5/16 7/21 17/27 18/27 8/21 19/27 8/16 9/16 20/27 21/27 9/21 22/27 6/16 10/21 11/21 23/27 8/26 12/21 9/26 13/21 7/16 4/4 14/21 1/16 10/16 2/16 10/26 11/16 12/16 11/26 15/21 3/16 12/26 4/16 13/26 16/21 17/21 5/16 6/16 7/16 14/26 15/26 18/21

COUNTRY NAME
SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GEORGIA LITHUANIA BRAZIL SLOVENIA JAPAN CAMBODIA ESTONIA LATVIA ARGENTINA UZBEKISTAN MOROCCO NICARAGUA HONDURAS RUSSIAN FEDERATION NAMIBIA URUGUAY ETHIOPIA PARAGUAY ISRAEL BANGLADESH JAMAICA GERMANY SINGAPORE PORTUGAL MALAWI HONG KONG SAR, CHINA LAO PDR MAURITIUS CUBA ITALY CÔTE D'IVOIRE UNITED KINGDOM GHANA PERU ECUADOR AUSTRIA FRANCE SPAIN LIBERIA ZAMBIA CHILE

ISO CODE
SYR DOM GEO LTU BRA SVN JPN KHM EST LVA ARG UZB MAR NIC HND RUS NAM URY ETH PRY ISR BGD JAM DEU SGP PRT MWI HKG LAO MUS CUB ITA CIV GBR GHA PER ECU AUT FRA ESP LBR ZMB CHL

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020
2.78% 2.78% 2.77% 2.76% 2.73% 2.72% 2.71% 2.66% 2.65% 2.63% 2.61% 2.61% 2.60% 2.60% 2.59% 2.58% 2.56% 2.53% 2.53% 2.50% 2.46% 2.40% 2.35% 2.34% 2.30% 2.30% 2.27% 2.26% 2.24% 2.22% 2.22% 2.18% 2.18% 2.16% 2.16% 2.13% 2.12% 2.10% 2.09% 2.08% 2.07% 2.06% 2.05%

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009
1.4% 3.5% 6.2% 5.1% 2.0% 2.7% 0.6% 6.3% 5.0% 5.0% 2.3% 5.1% 3.5% 1.5% 2.3% 5.7% 2.7% 2.0% 5.2% 0.3% 1.6% 4.1% 0.6% 0.8% 3.1% 0.5% 1.1% 3.5% 4.8% 3.2% 5.9% -0.1% -1.8% 1.2% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 1.2% -1.3% 2.7% 2.6%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
86 66 88 41 46 27 17 117 35 38 50 101 83 108 93 45 72 44 127 91 26 120 70 16 19 28 128 23 112 56 62 21 106 20 107 71 74 10 15 22 129 110 43

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020
2,474 4,637 2,449 11,141 8,230 23,726 39,738 706 14,238 11,616 7,626 1,156 2,811 1,069 1,918 8,684 4,267 9,420 344 2,242 26,256 551 4,471 40,670 36,537 21,903 310 30,065 940 6,735 5,596 35,084 1,106 35,165 1,098 4,469 4,202 45,562 41,051 31,774 222 990 9,644 87 66 88 40 48 27 14 116 34 39 52 100 83 102 94 45 72 42 126 90 26 119 71 15 19 28 127 23 113 57 63 21 103 20 104 73 77 8 16 22 128 112 43

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]
3,346 6,272 3,308 15,034 11,067 31,881 53,304 942 18,984 15,454 10,130 1,534 3,727 1,417 2,540 11,491 5,637 12,399 453 2,941 34,309 715 5,773 52,428 46,943 28,136 396 38,450 1,199 8,578 7,126 44,497 1,402 44,505 1,388 5,635 5,290 57,271 51,566 39,863 278 1,239 12,054 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

72 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020
RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128

REGIONAL RANKING EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C
8/16 9/16 19/21 16/26 1/2 24/27 13/16 17/26 18/26 8/16 10/16 25/27 9/16 11/16 12/16 13/16 20/21 2/2 14/16 15/16 14/16 10/16 26/27 11/16 12/16 27/27 19/26 15/16 21/21 13/16 20/26 21/26 16/16 14/16 22/26 15/16 16/16 16/16 23/26 24/26 25/26 26/26

COUNTRY NAME
SWEDEN FINLAND BOLIVIA MOZAMBIQUE UNITED STATES TAJIKISTAN NEW ZEALAND BOTSWANA MALI YEMEN, REP. BELGIUM KAZAKHSTAN SAUDI ARABIA SWITZERLAND GREECE NETHERLANDS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO CANADA IRELAND DENMARK MONGOLIA OMAN TURKMENISTAN ALGERIA IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. AZERBAIJAN GUINEA AUSTRALIA VENEZUELA, RB UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CAMEROON NIGERIA NORWAY LIBYA GABON QATAR PAPUA NEW GUINEA KUWAIT CONGO, REP. SUDAN ANGOLA MAURITANIA

ISO CODE
SWE FIN BOL MOZ USA TJK NZL BWA MLI YEM BEL KAZ SAU CHE GRC NLD TTO CAN IRL DNK MNG OMN TKM DZA IRN AZE GIN AUS VEN ARE CMR NGA NOR LBY GAB QAT PNG KWT COG SDN AGO MRT

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020
2.04% 2.03% 2.03% 2.03% 2.01% 1.95% 1.91% 1.89% 1.87% 1.86% 1.86% 1.82% 1.80% 1.78% 1.77% 1.72% 1.71% 1.67% 1.65% 1.63% 1.52% 1.44% 1.34% 1.28% 1.27% 1.25% 1.24% 1.23% 1.23% 1.21% 1.20% 1.16% 1.08% 0.99% 0.99% 0.90% 0.89% 0.82% 0.65% 0.55% 0.54% 0.29%

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009
1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.8% 6.7% 1.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.9% 3.0% 1.1% 5.9% 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 4.5% 2.8% 12.7% 2.1% 3.5% 14.5% 0.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 3.5% 1.1% 2.1% -0.6% NA 0.1% 2.6% 2.3% 4.8% 7.5% 1.0%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
13 11 94 125 9 116 24 59 118 104 12 53 34 3 25 8 33 18 6 4 96 31 77 76 67 65 126 14 39 7 102 103 1 42 51 2 100 5 85 98 75 113

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020
43,654 44,581 1,758 428 45,989 716 29,352 6,064 691 1,118 43,671 7,257 14,799 63,629 29,240 47,917 15,841 39,599 51,049 55,992 1,573 16,207 3,904 4,029 4,540 4,899 407 42,279 11,490 50,070 1,136 1,118 79,089 9,714 7,502 69,754 1,172 54.260 2,601 1,294 4,081 919 12 11 96 124 9 117 24 62 118 106 13 55 37 2 25 7 33 18 5 4 98 35 81 80 78 74 125 17 41 10 108 110 1 49 59 3 109 6 92 105 82 115

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]
54,522 55,630 2,194 533 57,260 885 36,132 7,449 848 1,369 53,457 8,853 18,011 77,233 35,476 57,784 19,097 47,520 61,138 66,902 1,858 18,971 4,521 4,632 5,214 5,617 467 48,355 13,138 57,151 1,296 1,270 88,980 10,828 8,362 77,008 1,292 59,391 2,794 1,374 4,329 949 WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NORTH AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NORTH AMERICA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 73

MAP 2:
Countries are color coded according to their position in Ranking 2.

Rank
1 128

FIGURE 2:
Expected annual GDP per capita growth with respect to GDP per capita in 2009.

IND

CHN THA UKR BLR

4%
ZWE KEN VNM SEN UGA KGZ

MDA

PHL

BIH EGY IDN LKA GTM SYR GEO JOR TUN SLV ALB

Expected average annual GDP per capita growth [2009-2020]

PAN MEX SRB ROU MYS BGR LBN

HUN POL CZE KOR SVK HRV SVN ISR PRT CHL JPN DEU SGP HKG ITA GBR AUT ESP FRA SWE FIN USA NZL BEL CHE GRC CAN NLD IRL DNK

3%
ETH

MDG TZA KHM BGD MWI

PAK

COL CRI ZAF MKD DOM

UZB NIC LAO CIV GHA ZMB YEM MNG

HND

PRY

MAR

NAM JAM

TUR BRA LTU EST ARG RUS LVA URY

2%

LBR

MOZ

TJK MLI

BOL

PER ECU

CUB MUS BWA

KAZ

SAU TTO OMN

TKM

GIN

DZA

1%
MRT

CMR NGA PNG SDN COG AGO

IRN AZE GAB LBY

VEN

AUS ARE NOR KWT QAT

0%

10 2

10 3 104 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 5

RANKING 3:

Expected GDP Growth to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 75

ranking 3 shows the ranking for total GDP growth. This ranking is dominated by Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. The three East African nations have a level of complexity that is higher than would be expected given their very low level of income, and occupy the positions 24, 13 and 39 of the rankings of growth in GDP per capita. However, they reach top of the total GDP growth because of their expected levels of high population growth (we use forecast of population growth rates to the year 2020 performed by United Nations1). With the exception of India and Guatemala, 8 out of the 10 countries at the top of Ranking 3 are from Africa. Also, the ranking shows that we expect India’s total GDP growth to top China’s. Map 3 shows the geographic pattern of total GDP growth, and Figure 3 plots total GDP growth as a function of GDP per capita.

by region:
By region, in East Asia and the Pacific the expected leaders in GDP growth are Philippines (12), Malaysia (15) and China (20), while laggard is Australia (107). In South Asia the best performing country is expected to be India (8), while Bangladesh is the laggard (51). In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the top performers are the Kyrgyz Republic (21), Turkey (40) and Uzbekistan (43). The worst performers in this region are Latvia (114) and Georgia (121). In Latin America the fastest growing countries are expected to be Guatemala (9), Panama (13) and Mexico (22), while the worst performance is expected in Trinidad and Tobago (119) and Cuba (128). Jordan (11), Egypt (14) and Yemen (16) are expected to lead GDP growth in Middle East and North Africa, while the laggards are Iran (117) and Libya (123). GDP growth in Western Europe is expected to be lead by The United Kingdom (92), followed closely by Ireland (93). At the bottom of the list we expect to find Greece (126) and Norway (128).

1

United nations, Department of economic and social affairs, population Division (2011)

76 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 3. EXPECTED GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
1/26 2/26 3/26 4/26 5/26 6/26 7/26 1/4 1/21 8/26 1/16 1/16 2/21 2/16 2/16 3/16 9/26 2/4 10/26 3/16 1/27 3/21 11/26 4/21 4/16 4/16 5/16 12/26 13/26 5/16 14/26 6/16 5/21 6/21 15/26 7/21 6/16 8/21 9/21 2/27 7/16 7/16 3/27 UGANDA KENYA TANZANIA ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR SENEGAL MALAWI INDIA GUATEMALA ZAMBIA JORDAN PHILIPPINES PANAMA EGYPT, ARAB REP. MALAYSIA YEMEN, REP. MALI PAKISTAN LIBERIA CHINA KYRGYZ REPUBLIC MEXICO ETHIOPIA HONDURAS THAILAND SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC VIETNAM CÔTE D'IVOIRE GHANA TUNISIA MOZAMBIQUE INDONESIA COLOMBIA COSTA RICA NAMIBIA PARAGUAY ISRAEL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NICARAGUA TURKEY CAMBODIA SAUDI ARABIA UZBEKISTAN

ISO CODE
UGA KEN TZA ZWE MDG SEN MWI IND GTM ZMB JOR PHL PAN EGY MYS YEM MLI PAK LBR CHN KGZ MEX ETH HND THA SYR VNM CIV GHA TUN MOZ IDN COL CRI NAM PRY ISR DOM NIC TUR KHM SAU UZB

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020
6.41% 6.10% 6.07% 5.93% 5.85% 5.82% 5.60% 5.51% 5.50% 5.25% 5.18% 5.14% 4.97% 4.94% 4.83% 4.83% 4.81% 4.80% 4.67% 4.66% 4.61% 4.56% 4.52% 4.49% 4.47% 4.45% 4.41% 4.37% 4.36% 4.31% 4.26% 4.22% 4.22% 4.21% 4.15% 4.15% 4.03% 3.93% 3.92% 3.88% 3.84% 3.82% 3.76% 4.1% 0.9% 3.8% -7.1% 1.0% 1.6% 0.6% 5.4% 1.2% 2.3% 3.9% 2.8% 4.0% 3.1% 3.5% 0.9% 3.2% 2.2% -0.1% 9.4% 3.8% 1.8% 4.8% 2.3% 3.8% 0.7% 5.9% -2.0% 3.1% 3.9% 4.7% 3.4% 1.8% 3.0% 2.7% 0.5% 1.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.4% 7.6% 0.9% 4.7%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
122 115 121 123 124 109 128 99 84 110 73 95 54 90 55 104 118 111 129 81 114 49 127 93 78 86 105 106 107 80 125 89 63 58 72 91 26 66 108 47 117 34 101

INCOME 2009 [USD]
490 738 503 449 438 1,023 310 1,192 2,661 990 4,216 1,752 7,155 2,270 7,030 1,118 691 955 222 3,744 860 8,143 344 1,918 3,893 2,474 1,113 1,106 1,098 3,792 428 2,349 5,126 6,386 4,267 2,242 26,256 4,637 1,069 8,215 706 14,799 1,156

RANK INCOME 2020
120 114 121 122 123 101 127 97 85 112 68 93 51 89 53 106 118 107 128 70 111 44 126 94 69 87 99 103 104 75 124 86 64 56 72 90 26 66 102 47 116 37 100

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]
700 1,073 691 676 608 1,457 396 1,886 3,693 1,239 6,101 2,560 10,529 3,268 10,071 1,369 848 1,336 278 5,962 1,244 11,894 453 2,540 6,023 3,346 1,622 1,402 1,388 5,456 533 3,363 7,107 8,807 5,637 2,941 34,309 6,272 1,417 11,168 942 18,011 1,534

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH
3.11% 2.64% 3.14% 2.14% 2.82% 2.55% 3.33% 1.25% 2.48% 3.19% 1.76% 1.64% 1.39% 1.57% 1.51% 2.97% 2.94% 1.69% 2.61% 0.34% 1.20% 1.05% 1.99% 1.90% 0.42% 1.67% 0.93% 2.19% 2.20% 0.95% 2.23% 0.91% 1.20% 1.24% 1.59% 1.65% 1.57% 1.14% 1.33% 1.05% 1.18% 2.02% 1.15% SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 77

RANKING 3. EXPECTED GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
16/26 17/26 10/21 8/16 4/27 3/4 11/21 4/4 9/16 8/16 12/21 13/21 9/16 5/27 18/26 14/21 6/27 7/27 8/27 19/26 9/27 10/16 11/16 10/27 15/21 11/27 10/16 12/27 20/26 11/16 13/27 14/27 12/16 15/27 12/16 13/16 13/16 14/16 21/26 16/27 16/21 22/26 17/27 GUINEA NIGERIA EL SALVADOR LEBANON BELARUS SRI LANKA BOLIVIA BANGLADESH MOROCCO LAO PDR BRAZIL ARGENTINA KOREA, REP. TAJIKISTAN SOUTH AFRICA ECUADOR CZECH REPUBLIC ALBANIA MOLDOVA CAMEROON BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA HONG KONG SAR, CHINA SINGAPORE SERBIA PERU SLOVAK REPUBLIC UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UKRAINE ANGOLA QATAR HUNGARY ROMANIA OMAN POLAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA KUWAIT MONGOLIA NEW ZEALAND GABON SLOVENIA URUGUAY SUDAN MACEDONIA, FYR

ISO CODE
GIN NGA SLV LBN BLR LKA BOL BGD MAR LAO BRA ARG KOR TJK ZAF ECU CZE ALB MDA CMR BIH HKG SGP SRB PER SVK ARE UKR AGO QAT HUN ROU OMN POL PNG KWT MNG NZL GAB SVN URY SDN MKD

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020
3.73% 3.72% 3.71% 3.71% 3.66% 3.66% 3.59% 3.59% 3.53% 3.52% 3.50% 3.44% 3.42% 3.42% 3.37% 3.35% 3.35% 3.33% 3.33% 3.30% 3.28% 3.28% 3.27% 3.24% 3.23% 3.23% 3.23% 3.19% 3.19% 3.16% 3.15% 3.15% 3.13% 3.10% 3.01% 3.00% 2.99% 2.91% 2.90% 2.90% 2.90% 2.89% 2.89% 1.3% 3.1% 2.4% 2.3% 8.1% 4.1% 1.4% 4.0% 3.0% 4.9% 2.1% 1.9% 4.8% 6.8% 2.5% 2.6% 3.8% 6.0% 5.2% 1.3% 5.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 5.0% 1.7% 7.0% 7.8% NA 4.0% 5.7% 2.8% 4.4% -0.2% 2.6% 5.0% 1.8% -1.5% 4.2% 1.5% 4.7% 2.8%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
126 103 82 48 64 92 94 120 83 112 46 50 30 116 61 74 29 79 97 102 68 23 19 60 71 32 7 87 75 2 37 52 31 40 100 5 96 24 51 27 44 98 69

INCOME 2009 [USD]
407 1,118 3,424 8,175 5,075 2,068 1,758 551 2,811 940 8,230 7,626 17,078 716 5,786 4,202 18,139 3,808 1,516 1,136 4,525 30,065 36,537 5,872 4,469 16,176 50,070 2,468 4,081 69,754 12,868 7,500 16,207 11,273 1,172 54,260 1,573 29,352 7,502 23,726 9,420 1,294 4,515

RANK INCOME 2020
125 110 79 46 61 91 96 119 83 113 48 52 30 117 60 77 29 76 95 108 65 23 19 58 73 31 10 84 82 3 36 50 35 38 109 6 98 24 59 27 42 105 67

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]
467 1,270 4,770 11,373 7,806 2,852 2,194 715 3,727 1,199 11,067 10,130 23,866 885 7,920 5,290 25,415 5,302 2,321 1,296 6,669 38,450 46,943 8,467 5,635 22,579 57,151 3,694 4,329 77,008 18,420 10,823 18,971 15,727 1,292 59,391 1,858 36,132 8,362 31,881 12,399 1,374 6,141

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH
2.49% 2.55% 0.65% 0.66% -0.33% 0.69% 1.56% 1.18% 0.94% 1.28% 0.77% 0.82% 0.33% 1.47% 0.48% 1.24% 0.23% 0.28% -0.62% 2.10% -0.30% 1.02% 0.96% -0.14% 1.10% 0.15% 2.02% -0.54% 2.65% 2.26% -0.16% -0.24% 1.69% 0.03% 2.13% 2.17% 1.46% 1.00% 1.91% 0.18% 0.37% 2.35% 0.06% SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

78 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 3. EXPECTED GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH
17/21 1/2 23/26 18/27 24/26 1/16 2/16 19/27 25/26 18/21 19/21 3/16 20/27 4/16 5/16 15/16 2/2 21/27 22/27 14/16 16/16 26/26 23/27 24/27 25/27 6/16 7/16 26/27 8/16 9/16 15/16 10/16 20/21 11/16 27/27 12/16 16/16 13/16 14/16 15/16 21/21 16/16 CHILE UNITED STATES BOTSWANA KAZAKHSTAN CONGO, REP. UNITED KINGDOM IRELAND CROATIA MAURITIUS JAMAICA VENEZUELA, RB SPAIN BULGARIA SWEDEN FRANCE JAPAN CANADA ESTONIA TURKMENISTAN ALGERIA AUSTRALIA MAURITANIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION LITHUANIA AZERBAIJAN FINLAND ITALY LATVIA PORTUGAL AUSTRIA IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. GERMANY CUBA SWITZERLAND GEORGIA BELGIUM LIBYA NETHERLANDS DENMARK GREECE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NORWAY

ISO CODE
CHL USA BWA KAZ COG GBR IRL HRV MUS JAM VEN ESP BGR SWE FRA JPN CAN EST TKM DZA AUS MRT RUS LTU AZE FIN ITA LVA PRT AUT IRN DEU CUB CHE GEO BEL LBY NLD DNK GRC TTO NOR

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020
2.85% 2.84% 2.84% 2.81% 2.80% 2.76% 2.71% 2.71% 2.69% 2.66% 2.64% 2.63% 2.62% 2.61% 2.58% 2.57% 2.56% 2.56% 2.53% 2.53% 2.49% 2.48% 2.44% 2.35% 2.33% 2.33% 2.31% 2.25% 2.25% 2.24% 2.18% 2.17% 2.14% 2.13% 2.13% 2.12% 2.08% 1.97% 1.96% 1.96% 1.95% 1.77% 2.6% 1.6% 3.5% 8.3% 1.3% 2.1% 3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 1.0% 1.4% 2.0% 6.3% 2.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.9% 6.6% 13.6% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 7.3% 6.7% 14.3% 3.0% 0.7% 7.6% 1.1% 2.0% 3.5% 1.5% 5.9% 1.3% 7.1% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.3% 3.6% 6.7% 1.6%

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]
43 9 59 53 85 20 6 36 56 70 39 22 57 13 15 17 18 35 77 76 14 113 45 41 65 11 21 38 28 10 67 16 62 3 88 12 42 8 4 25 33 1

INCOME 2009 [USD]
9,644 45,989 6,064 7,257 2,601 35,165 51,049 14,222 6,735 4,471 11,490 31,774 6,423 43,654 41,051 39,738 39,599 14,238 3,904 4,029 42,279 919 8,684 11,141 4,899 44,581 35,084 11,616 21,903 45,562 4,540 40,670 5,596 63,629 2,449 43,671 9,714 47,917 55,992 29,240 15,841 79,089

RANK INCOME 2020
43 9 62 55 92 20 5 32 57 71 41 22 54 12 16 14 18 34 81 80 17 115 45 40 74 11 21 39 28 8 78 15 63 2 88 13 49 7 4 25 33 1

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]
12,054 57,260 7,449 8,853 2,794 44,505 61,138 19,528 8,578 5,773 13,138 39,863 9,178 54,522 51,566 53,304 47,520 18,984 4,521 4,632 48,355 949 11,491 15,034 5,617 55,630 44,497 15,454 28,136 57,271 5,214 52,428 7,126 77,233 3,308 53,457 10,828 57,784 66,902 35,476 19,097 88,980

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH
0.80% 0.83% 0.95% 0.99% 2.15% 0.59% 1.06% -0.21% 0.47% 0.31% 1.41% 0.55% -0.68% 0.57% 0.48% -0.14% 0.89% -0.09% 1.19% 1.26% 1.26% 2.19% -0.14% -0.41% 1.08% 0.30% 0.12% -0.37% -0.05% 0.14% 0.92% -0.16% -0.08% 0.36% -0.64% 0.27% 1.09% 0.25% 0.33% 0.18% 0.24% 0.69% LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN NORTH AMERICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 79

MAP 3:
Show the geographic pattern of total GDP growth.

Rank
1 128

FIGURE 3:
Plots total GDP growth as a function of GDP per capita.

7%
UGA

6%
MWI

TZA ZWE MDG

KEN SEN IND ZMB PHL YEM HND SYR PRY IDN EGY CHN THA TUN COL NAM DOM SLV GTM JOR PAN MYS MEX CRI ISR TUR LBN SAU

Expected average annual total GDP growth [2009-2020]

5%
LBR ETH MOZ

MLI KGZ

PAK

VNM CIV GHA NIC UZB NGA

4% 3% 2% 1%

GIN BGD

KHM TJK LAO CMR PNG

LKA BOL MDA MNG

SDN MRT

BLR BRA KOR ECU ZAF ARG HKG CZE BIH SRB SGP ARE HUN SVK PER QAT ROU OMN POL AGO NZL KWT USA MKD BWA GAB URY SVN IRL KAZ CHL COG GBR SWE HRV MUS JAM VEN ESP FRA BGR EST JPN CAN DZA RUS AUS TKM LTU AZE ITA FIN PRT LVA AUT DEU CUB CHE GEO LBY BEL IRN GRC DNK TTO NLD NOR MAR ALB UKR

10

2

10

3

10

4

10

5

GDP per capita in USD [2009]

RANKING 4:

Change in Economic Complexity (1964-2008)

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 81

FIGURE 4.1:
Evolution of the ranking of countries based on ECI between 1964 and 2008. Please see pages 352-353 for a larger version.
CHE 1 SWE 2 AUT 3 GBR 4 JPN 5 FRA 6 USA 7 ITA 8 BEL 9 NOR 10 FIN 11 DNK 12 NLD 13 HKG 14 HUN 15 POL 16 IRL 17 PAN 18 PRT 19 KOR 20 ISR 21 CAN 22 BGR 23 ESP 24 CHN 25 ROU 26 SLV 27 SGP 28 JOR 29 CRI 30 NZL 31 AUS 32 URY 33 GRC 34 MEX 35 CHL 36 GTM 37 IND 38 LBN 39 MAR 40 MRT 41 ARG 42 CUB 43 COL 44 EGY 45 DZA 46 TUN 47 ZAF 48 MNG 49 ZWE 50 ALB 51 PAK 52 VEN 53 JAM 54 HND 55 NIC 56 TTO 57 SEN 58 SYR 59 VNM 60 OMN 61 PER 62 TUR 63 PHL 64 ECU 65 LBR 66 BOL 67 IRN 68 PRY 69 MYS 70 BRA 71 THA 72 ZMB 73 MWI 74 CIV 75 GIN 76 MLI 77 KHM 78 LAO 79 LKA 80 KEN 81 GHA 82 MDG 83 COG 84 DOM 85 ETH 86 SAU 87 IDN 88 CMR 89 AGO 90 PNG 91 MOZ 92 TZA 93 UGA 94 SDN 95 GAB 96 NGA 97 QAT 98 KWT 99 MUS 100 LBY 101 JPN 1 CHE 2 SWE 3 FIN 4 AUT 5 GBR 6 SGP 7 KOR 8 HUN 9 FRA 10 USA 11 ITA 12 DNK 13 IRL 14 ISR 15 BEL 16 MEX 17 POL 18 NLD 19 ESP 20 HKG 21 ROU 22 CHN 23 NOR 24 THA 25 MYS 26 PRT 27 PAN 28 CAN 29 BGR 30 LBN 31 TUR 32 BRA 33 NZL 34 TUN 35 JOR 36 CRI 37 GRC 38 IND 39 COL 40 ZAF 41 ARG 42 URY 43 PHL 44 SLV 45 IDN 46 DOM 47 ALB 48 GTM 49 TTO 50 EGY 51 CHL 52 VNM 53 AUS 54 SAU 55 LKA 56 SYR 57 MUS 58 SEN 59 QAT 60 MAR 61 KEN 62 ZWE 63 HND 64 JAM 65 CUB 66 PRY 67 PAK 68 OMN 69 PER 70 UGA 71 MDG 72 NIC 73 KWT 74 ECU 75 TZA 76 ZMB 77 LAO 78 GHA 79 KHM 80 BOL 81 CIV 82 VEN 83 ETH 84 IRN 85 MWI 86 MNG 87 LBR 88 MOZ 89 MLI 90 GAB 91 LBY 92 CMR 93 DZA 94 GIN 95 NGA 96 PNG 97 AGO 98 COG 99 MRT 100 SDN 101

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

ranking 4 looks at changes in economic complexity. Here
countries are ranked according to the change in ECI experienced between 1964 and 2008. Because of data availability, this ranking is limited to 101 countries. The countries that improved the most during this period are Mauritius, Thailand and Malaysia. Other countries that underwent substantial transformation during this period were Singapore, Indonesia, Brazil, Dominican Republic and Turkey. All of these were countries that dramatically transformed their economies during this forty-four year period (see Part 1, Section 5: How does economic complexity evolve?). These transformations can be seen in detail in their respective country pages. Figure 4.1 shows the change in ECI observed between 1964 and 2008 as a function of a country’s current level of income. Map 4 illustrates the spatial distribution of these changes. Figure 4 provides a visual representation of the change in ECI rankings. Here, each line represents a country, and the vertical position of the line indicates the position on the ranking for a given year. Lines were assigned a color using a perfect gradient according to their ranking in the initial year (1964). This helps identify movements in the ranking of economic complexity during the observed period.

by region:
By region, in East Asia and the Pacific the countries that changed their economic complexity the most were Thailand (2), Malaysia (3), Singapore (4) and Indonesia (5). China occupies the 31st position in this ranking. The relatively low

position of China in this ranking reflects the fact that China’s transformation built on a productive structure that was more sophisticated than that of many of its regional neighbors. The laggards of this region are Papua New Guinea (78), Australia (95) and Mongolia (97). In South Asia the best performing country was Sri Lanka (16), while Pakistan (73) is the laggard. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the top performers were Turkey (10) and Romania (19). The lack of historical data for the region is substantial, however, since many of the countries in the region used to belong to the Soviet Union and we do not have good data on their productive structure. In Latin America the countries that experienced the largest change in economic complexity were Brazil (7), Dominican Republic (8) and Mexico (12). The laggards were El Salvador (86), Chile (87) and Venezuela (92). In the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia (9), Libya (11) and Tunisia (20) were the countries that increased their ECI the most, while the laggards were Morocco (90), which used to be one of the most complex economies of the region, Iran (91) and Algeria (98). Finally, in Western Europe the change in ECI between 1964 and 2008 is dominated by that of Finland (26), Spain (39) and Ireland (46) and the laggards of the region were Portugal (84), Belgium (89) and Norway (96). We note that Western Europe is a region in which all countries have always had positive values of the ECI, which limits the range of potential positive changes.

82 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 4. CHANGE IN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY ( 1964-2008) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANKING ECI (64-08)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)
1/22 1/16 2/16 3/16 4/16 2/22 1/21 2/21 1/14 1/6 2/14 3/21 3/22 4/22 5/16 1/3 6/16 7/16 2/6 3/14 4/14 5/14 3/6 5/22 6/22 1/15 4/6 8/16 4/21 7/22 9/16 8/22 5/21 6/14 6/21 7/14 2/3 8/14 2/15 9/22 7/21 9/14 10/22 MAURITIUS THAILAND MALAYSIA SINGAPORE INDONESIA UGANDA BRAZIL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SAUDI ARABIA TURKEY LIBYA MEXICO TANZANIA KENYA PHILIPPINES SRI LANKA JAPAN KOREA, REP. ROMANIA TUNISIA LEBANON QATAR ALBANIA GHANA MADAGASCAR FINLAND HUNGARY VIETNAM PARAGUAY SENEGAL CHINA SOUTH AFRICA TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO KUWAIT COLOMBIA SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC INDIA ISRAEL SPAIN GABON COSTA RICA EGYPT, ARAB REP. CÔTE D'IVOIRE

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)
MUS THA MYS SGP IDN UGA BRA DOM SAU TUR LBY MEX TZA KEN PHL LKA JPN KOR ROU TUN LBN QAT ALB GHA MDG FIN HUN VNM PRY SEN CHN ZAF TTO KWT COL SYR IND ISR ESP GAB CRI EGY CIV -1.99 -0.67 -0.67 0.59 -1.04 -1.48 -0.74 -1.05 -1.02 -0.35 -2.09 0.39 -1.21 -0.84 -0.46 -0.73 1.87 1.04 0.53 -0.08 0.11 -0.73 -0.18 -1.13 -0.85 1.47 1.19 -0.40 -0.68 -0.49 0.74 -0.02 -0.45 -1.36 0.06 -0.42 0.12 1.04 0.81 -1.48 0.22 -0.07 -0.92 -0.92 -0.61 -0.49 0.57 -1.04 -1.42 -0.55 -0.95 -0.93 -0.49 -2.31 0.24 -1.11 -0.68 -0.18 -0.89 1.93 0.97 0.88 0.12 0.86 -2.31 0.10 -0.97 -0.89 1.64 1.15 -0.02 -0.60 -0.30 0.75 -0.20 0.10 -0.89 -0.23 -0.17 0.29 0.78 0.89 -1.30 0.63 -0.04 -1.02 0.42 0.14 -0.02 0.66 -0.89 -0.78 0.31 0.34 -2.64 0.31 -2.07 0.74 -0.66 0.15 0.25 -0.15 1.49 0.89 0.86 0.20 0.53 -3.61 0.39 -0.62 -0.60 1.21 0.91 0.02 -0.16 -0.36 0.57 0.22 -0.08 -1.94 0.03 -0.29 0.40 0.95 1.05 -1.40 -0.04 0.22 -0.58 -0.18 0.09 0.02 0.84 -0.62 -1.32 0.60 -0.34 0.51 0.38 0.08 0.80 -1.17 -0.87 -0.15 -0.47 2.11 0.93 1.04 0.18 0.35 0.29 -0.09 -1.22 -1.40 1.64 0.99 -0.60 -0.71 -0.78 0.40 0.13 -0.41 0.69 0.11 -0.14 0.19 1.18 1.20 -1.62 -0.44 -0.14 -1.63 -0.63 0.17 0.48 1.22 -0.19 -1.14 0.68 -0.72 0.22 0.28 -0.72 0.80 -1.25 -1.12 -0.31 -0.64 2.21 0.94 0.64 -0.02 0.08 -0.79 -0.37 -1.18 -1.14 1.85 1.01 -0.59 -0.22 -0.97 0.33 0.41 -0.06 -0.55 0.28 -0.98 0.21 1.24 1.13 -0.93 -0.54 -0.30 -1.43 -0.31 0.81 0.76 1.64 -0.01 -0.49 0.24 -0.06 -0.20 0.44 -1.30 1.14 -0.64 -0.28 0.03 -0.27 2.32 1.47 0.94 0.29 0.40 -0.44 0.09 -0.87 -0.59 1.71 1.43 -0.18 -0.47 -0.29 0.89 0.13 -0.31 -1.22 0.20 -0.29 0.25 1.16 0.93 -1.36 0.28 -0.02 -0.87 1.68 1.48 1.43 1.05 1.03 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.82 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.57 0.56 0.50 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.32 0.65 0.28 0.42 0.18 0.65 -0.43 0.66 -0.42 0.17 -0.58 0.35 0.61 0.84 0.34 0.37 0.11 0.53 0.29 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.46 0.31 0.54 -0.13 0.42 0.41 -0.25 0.68 0.57 -0.28 -0.25 -0.67 -0.08 0.69 0.04 -0.08 -0.19 -0.44 0.81 0.28 0.56

RANKING ECI (98-08)
36 11 43 24 51 10 104 9 103 53 114 30 12 3 32 27 57 19 40 38 37 29 21 39 18 77 23 25 87 7 16 91 86 117 72 6 63 73 81 105 4 42 17

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)
10/22 1/16 9/16 6/16 10/16 3/22 19/21 6/21 13/14 9/6 15/14 9/21 4/22 1/22 8/16 1/3 11/16 4/16 5/6 5/14 4/14 2/14 2/6 11/22 6/22 4/15 3/6 7/16 14/21 2/22 3/16 18/22 13/21 16/14 12/21 1/14 4/3 8/14 7/15 19/22 3/21 6/14 5/22

REGION
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SOUTH ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 83

RANKING 4. CHANGE IN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY ( 1964-2008) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANKING ECI (64-08)
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)
8/21 9/21 3/15 10/16 11/22 12/22 13/22 4/15 10/21 5/15 6/15 11/16 11/21 12/21 13/21 la 7/15 5/6 14/21 8/15 10/14 15/21 14/22 11/14 16/21 13/16 17/21 9/15 1/2 3/3 10/15 11/15 15/22 18/21 14/16 12/15 6/6 16/22 2/2 17/22 13/15 18/22 19/21 ECUADOR ARGENTINA IRELAND CAMBODIA MOZAMBIQUE ETHIOPIA NIGERIA SWITZERLAND PERU SWEDEN AUSTRIA NEW ZEALAND GUATEMALA PANAMA JAMAICA LAO PDR DENMARK POLAND URUGUAY GREECE JORDAN HONDURAS CAMEROON OMAN NICARAGUA HONG KONG SAR, CHINA BOLIVIA FRANCE UNITED STATES PAKISTAN UNITED KINGDOM NETHERLANDS SUDAN CUBA PAPUA NEW GUINEA ITALY BULGARIA LIBERIA CANADA ZAMBIA PORTUGAL MALI EL SALVADOR

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)
ECU ARG IRL KHM MOZ ETH NGA CHE PER SWE AUT NZL GTM PAN JAM LAO DNK POL URY GRC JOR HND CMR OMN NIC HKG BOL FRA USA PAK GBR NLD SDN CUB PNG ITA BGR LBR CAN ZMB PRT MLI SLV -0.66 0.09 1.22 -0.71 -1.08 -0.88 -1.38 2.04 -0.45 2.00 1.96 0.47 0.09 1.02 -0.15 -0.67 1.50 1.26 0.35 0.46 0.58 -0.23 -1.12 -0.30 -0.36 1.33 -0.57 1.79 1.78 -0.06 1.92 1.41 -1.39 -0.03 -1.17 1.72 1.00 -0.70 1.02 -0.47 1.17 -0.63 0.51 -0.89 -0.05 1.10 -1.06 -0.71 -0.92 -1.45 1.89 -0.73 1.88 1.87 0.32 0.32 1.14 -0.08 -0.60 1.40 1.08 0.26 0.31 0.82 -0.13 -0.71 -1.13 0.08 1.37 -0.60 1.68 1.76 -0.12 1.87 1.37 -1.15 -0.40 -1.10 1.74 0.71 -0.64 1.04 -1.26 1.06 -0.85 0.67 -0.52 0.43 1.10 0.09 -0.49 -0.60 -1.50 1.44 0.00 1.46 1.39 0.58 -0.36 0.03 0.12 -0.47 1.18 0.94 0.58 0.64 1.03 -0.31 -0.61 -2.45 -0.29 0.92 -0.21 1.30 1.35 0.19 1.36 1.08 -0.79 -0.17 -1.04 1.29 0.80 -0.60 1.06 -0.09 0.85 -0.20 0.23 -0.81 0.28 1.44 -0.82 -0.10 -0.77 -1.71 1.90 -0.04 2.02 1.78 0.57 -0.84 0.30 -0.53 -1.11 1.59 1.11 0.49 0.20 0.42 -0.97 -1.83 0.18 -0.93 0.88 -0.99 1.67 1.58 -0.49 1.81 1.39 -0.89 -0.39 -1.60 1.61 1.11 -1.48 0.97 -0.39 0.69 -0.62 -0.61 -0.85 0.39 1.57 -1.19 -0.38 -1.06 -1.65 2.08 -0.26 2.03 1.80 0.47 -0.86 -0.13 -0.78 -0.83 1.54 1.02 0.44 0.26 0.43 -1.09 -1.73 -0.33 -1.32 0.42 -0.56 1.67 1.81 -0.72 1.92 1.37 -1.08 -0.62 -1.55 1.54 0.65 -0.60 1.02 -0.96 0.57 -1.48 -1.03 -0.62 0.11 1.23 -0.70 -1.08 -0.89 -1.42 1.93 -0.58 1.86 1.81 0.29 -0.10 0.83 -0.34 -0.88 1.27 1.02 0.11 0.21 0.33 -0.52 -1.40 -0.60 -0.66 1.02 -0.88 1.47 1.45 -0.40 1.56 1.04 -1.77 -0.43 -1.58 1.31 0.59 -1.13 0.57 -0.93 0.70 -1.10 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.10 -0.12 -0.14 -0.15 -0.18 -0.19 -0.19 -0.20 -0.21 -0.23 -0.24 -0.24 -0.25 -0.25 -0.28 -0.29 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.33 -0.34 -0.36 -0.37 -0.38 -0.40 -0.41 -0.41 -0.42 -0.43 -0.45 -0.46 -0.47 -0.48 -0.48 0.23 -0.28 -0.34 0.48 -0.70 0.17 0.23 -0.14 -0.32 -0.17 0.01 -0.18 0.76 0.96 0.44 -0.05 -0.27 0.00 -0.33 -0.04 -0.11 0.57 0.32 -0.27 0.66 0.60 -0.32 -0.20 -0.36 0.33 -0.37 -0.33 -0.69 0.19 -0.02 -0.23 -0.06 -0.52 -0.45 0.03 0.13 0.38 1.05

RANKING ECI (98-08)
46 90 98 20 119 52 47 78 92 79 65 80 5 2 22 70 88 66 97 69 75 15 35 89 8 13 93 83 99 34 101 96 118 50 67 85 71 112 107 64 55 26 1

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)
10/21 15/21 14/15 5/16 23/22 15/22 13/22 5/15 16/21 6/15 2/15 14/16 4/21 2/21 8/21 13/16 12/15 15/6 18/21 3/15 10/14 7/21 9/22 11/14 5/21 2/16 17/21 9/15 1/2 2/3 15/15 13/15 22/22 11/21 12/16 11/15 17/6 20/22 2/2 16/22 1/15 7/22 1/21

REGION
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE NORTH AMERICA SOUTH ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NORTH AMERICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

84 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 4. CHANGE IN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY ( 1964-2008) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX
RANKING ECI (64-08)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)
20/21 19/22 14/15 12/14 13/14 21/21 20/22 21/22 15/16 15/15 16/16 14/14 22/22 CHILE GUINEA BELGIUM MOROCCO IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. VENEZUELA, RB ANGOLA CONGO, REP. AUSTRALIA NORWAY MONGOLIA ALGERIA MAURITANIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AZERBAIJAN BANGLADESH BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA BELARUS BOTSWANA CZECH REPUBLIC GERMANY ESTONIA GEORGIA CROATIA KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZ REPUBLIC LITHUANIA LATVIA MOLDOVA MACEDONIA, FYR MALAWI NAMIBIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION SERBIA SLOVAK REPUBLIC SLOVENIA TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UKRAINE UZBEKISTAN YEMEN, REP. ZIMBABWE

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)
CHL GIN BEL MAR IRN VEN AGO COG AUS NOR MNG DZA MRT ARE AZE BGD BIH BLR BWA CZE DEU EST GEO HRV KAZ KGZ LTU LVA MDA MKD MWI NAM RUS SRB SVK SVN TJK TKM UKR UZB YEM ZWE 1.15 -0.02 -0.52 1.33 1.43 -0.24 -0.55 0.88 -0.15 -1.38 -0.56 0.69 -0.78 -0.65 -1.39 1.52 2.18 0.55 0.48 0.79 0.21 0.09 0.42 0.22 0.11 0.01 -1.31 0.03 -0.62 0.20 -0.93 1.67 0.20 -0.61 -0.47 -1.10 -1.00 0.41 1.53 -0.08 -0.01 0.40 0.10 -1.02 1.54 -0.15 -0.68 -0.19 -1.08 -0.88 0.37 1.59 -0.48 -0.39 0.23 0.28 -0.94 1.24 0.31 -0.92 -0.94 -1.57 -1.07 0.41 1.13 0.15 -0.26 -0.12 -3.61 -0.07 -1.86 1.53 -0.18 -0.86 -0.19 -1.01 -1.61 0.22 1.26 -0.02 0.50 -1.21 0.53 0.12 -1.79 1.60 -0.51 -0.69 0.25 -1.16 -1.58 0.18 0.99 -0.71 -0.81 -1.01 -0.02 0.37 -0.99 0.52 0.53 -0.31 -1.44 1.08 -0.40 -1.23 -1.11 -1.79 -1.71 -0.32 0.78 -1.17 -1.21 -1.91 -0.11 -1.22 -0.89 0.60 1.12 -0.62 1.63 1.98 0.79 -0.26 0.99 -0.61 -0.24 0.68 0.59 0.27 -0.02 -1.02 -0.27 0.32 0.64 1.38 1.52 -1.05 -1.22 0.56 -0.66 -1.04 -0.33 0.05 0.09 -0.81 -0.67 -0.33 -0.51 0.33 0.23 -0.36 0.10 -0.20 0.24 -0.74 0.20 -0.82 -0.33 0.27 0.37 0.15 -0.02 0.28 -0.52 -0.52 -0.58 -0.60 -0.62 -0.64 -0.69 -0.71 -0.73 -0.75 -1.09 -1.20 -2.31 -0.44 0.34 -0.52 0.11 -0.54 -1.36 -0.64 -0.12 -0.50 -0.21 -0.46 -0.40 -0.89 -0.08 -1.60 0.11 0.08 0.59

RANKING ECI (98-08)
106 31 111 56 113 124 115 76 109 84 108 102 123 74 125 58 61 14

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)
20/21 8/22 16/15 7/14 14/14 21/21 21/22 17/22 16/16 10/15 15/16 12/14 24/22 9/14 26/6 3/3 13/6 1/6

REGION
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

59 82 45 120 49 122 95 44 28 54 68 41

11/6 8/15 7/6 23/6 8/6 25/6 19/6 6/6 4/6 10/6 16/6 12/22

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

100

20/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

62 60 121 116 94 110 33 48

14/6 12/6 24/6 22/6 18/6 21/6 3/14 14/22

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 85

MAP 4:
Illustrates the spatial dristribution of these changes.

Rank
1 99

FIGURE 4:
Provides a visual representation of the change in ECI rankings.

1.5 1
KEN SLV PAN SEN NIC CIV KHM VNM YEM MLI CMR PAK GHA NGA ZMB IND LAO PNG KGZ BOL UZB MOZ TJK SDN MRT MNG GTM SYR HND PHL LKA EGY IDN MDA CRI THA DOM CHN BLR ALB JAM TUN ECU MAR HKG SGP PRT SVN QAT

Change in Economic Complexity [1998-2008]

0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 2 10
LBR

UGA TZA MDG GIN MWI ZWE ETH

KOR MUS HUN LVA LTU EST HRV POL

BGD

MEX LBN ROU MYS CUB TUR

COG PRY UKR

BIH MKD BGR JOR COL PER DZA IRN AGO TKM ZAF

CZE SVK

JPN

ARG URY RUS BRA CHL GAB LBY KAZ

TTO OMN SAU

GEO

AUT ARE GRC ISR FIN NZL CHE SWE ESP FRA NOR ITA DEU DNK NLD IRL GBR USA CAN AUS BEL KWT

VEN AZE

10 3
GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 4

105

RANKING 5:

Expected Contribution to World GDP Growth to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 87

Finally, ranking 5 sorts countries according to their expected contribution to total world GDP growth in the period to 2020. As expected, the ranking is dominated by large economies. The United States and China are expected to be the largest contributors and are followed more distantly by Japan and India. What is worth highlighting from ranking 5 is the much larger importance of developing countries in the contribution to global growth. This is highlighted by the very large difference in incomes per capita between the top four countries. Consumers from China, India, Brazil and Mexico will now be a more important part of global economic dynamism, but, given that their lower incomes, their needs are radically different from those of the richer countries that have until now led the growth process. This will shape important changes in the demand structure of future growth. Figure 5 illustrates Ranking 5 by plotting the expected contribution to total GDP of each country as a function of GDP per capita. Map 5 shows the spatial distribution of Ranking 5.

by region:
In Western Europe the top contributors to world GDP growth will be Germany (5), France (6) and United Kingdom (7). In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Russia (14), Turkey (15) and Poland (20) are expected to be the leaders. Brazil (8), Mexico (10), Argentina (22) and Colombia (23) will be the largest Latin American contributors. In the Middle East and North Africa, the top contributors are Saudi Arabia (18), Egypt (24) and Israel (33). In South Asia, the top contributor to world GDP growth will be India (4) followed distantly by Pakistan (31). South Africa (28), Nigeria (38) and Angola (62) will lead the regional ranking in Sub-Saharan Africa.

88 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 5. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
1/2 1/16 2/16 1/4 1/16 2/16 3/16 1/21 4/16 2/21 5/16 2/2 3/16 1/27 2/27 4/16 5/16 1/16 6/16 3/27 6/16 3/21 4/21 2/16 7/16 7/16 8/16 1/26 9/16 8/16 2/4 5/21 3/16 10/16 4/16 9/16 5/16 2/26 4/27 11/16 12/16 13/16 10/16

COUNTRY NAME
UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN INDIA GERMANY FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM BRAZIL ITALY MEXICO SPAIN CANADA KOREA, REP. RUSSIAN FEDERATION TURKEY INDONESIA AUSTRALIA SAUDI ARABIA NETHERLANDS POLAND THAILAND ARGENTINA COLOMBIA EGYPT, ARAB REP. SWEDEN MALAYSIA SWITZERLAND SOUTH AFRICA BELGIUM PHILIPPINES PAKISTAN VENEZUELA, RB ISRAEL AUSTRIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES HONG KONG SAR, CHINA IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. NIGERIA CZECH REPUBLIC NORWAY GREECE IRELAND SINGAPORE

ISO CODE
USA CHN JPN IND DEU FRA GBR BRA ITA MEX ESP CAN KOR RUS TUR IDN AUS SAU NLD POL THA ARG COL EGY SWE MYS CHE ZAF BEL PHL PAK VEN ISR AUT ARE HKG IRN NGA CZE NOR GRC IRL SGP

CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
22.41% 14.21% 7.11% 4.89% 3.88% 3.64% 3.33% 3.22% 2.63% 2.44% 2.12% 1.88% 1.63% 1.63% 1.41% 1.37% 1.26% 0.85% 0.83% 0.75% 0.71% 0.61% 0.59% 0.58% 0.58% 0.58% 0.56% 0.55% 0.54% 0.53% 0.48% 0.48% 0.47% 0.46% 0.42% 0.39% 0.39% 0.38% 0.36% 0.36% 0.34% 0.34% 0.34%

REGION
NORTH AMERICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SOUTH ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WESTERN EUROPE NORTH AMERICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SOUTH ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA WESTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 89

RANKING 5. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
14/16 15/16 5/27 16/16 6/21 11/16 6/16 7/21 6/27 12/16 7/27 7/16 3/4 8/16 8/27 9/16 9/27 10/16 3/26 8/21 4/26 9/21 10/21 10/27 11/16 11/27 4/4 5/26 6/26 12/16 13/16 14/16 7/26 12/27 13/27 11/21 15/16 12/21 13/21 14/27 8/26 16/16 9/26

COUNTRY NAME
DENMARK FINLAND ROMANIA PORTUGAL CHILE VIETNAM KUWAIT PERU HUNGARY NEW ZEALAND UKRAINE ALGERIA BANGLADESH MOROCCO KAZAKHSTAN QATAR SLOVAK REPUBLIC SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC ANGOLA GUATEMALA KENYA ECUADOR DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BELARUS TUNISIA CROATIA SRI LANKA TANZANIA SUDAN JORDAN OMAN YEMEN, REP. ETHIOPIA SERBIA SLOVENIA PANAMA LEBANON COSTA RICA CUBA UZBEKISTAN UGANDA LIBYA GHANA

ISO CODE
DNK FIN ROU PRT CHL VNM KWT PER HUN NZL UKR DZA BGD MAR KAZ QAT SVK SYR AGO GTM KEN ECU DOM BLR TUN HRV LKA TZA SDN JOR OMN YEM ETH SRB SVN PAN LBN CRI CUB UZB UGA LBY GHA

CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
0.32% 0.30% 0.29% 0.28% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.24% 0.23% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19% 0.18% 0.18% 0.18% 0.16% 0.14% 0.14% 0.13% 0.12% 0.11% 0.11% 0.10% 0.10% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.09% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.08% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0,07% 0.07%

REGION
WESTERN EUROPE WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA WESTERN EUROPE LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SOUTH ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SOUTH ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

90 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 5. EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
15/27 10/26 16/27 14/21 11/26 17/27 15/21 12/26 13/26 16/21 17/21 18/21 14/26 18/27 19/27 20/27 15/26 21/27 16/26 13/16 17/26 22/27 18/26 19/21 19/26 20/26 20/21 21/26 22/26 23/27 21/21 14/16 24/27 23/26 15/16 25/27 26/27 27/27 24/26 16/16 25/26 26/26

COUNTRY NAME
BULGARIA CÔTE D'IVOIRE AZERBAIJAN URUGUAY SENEGAL LITHUANIA EL SALVADOR ZAMBIA CAMEROON HONDURAS BOLIVIA PARAGUAY MADAGASCAR BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA LATVIA TURKMENISTAN MALI ESTONIA MOZAMBIQUE CAMBODIA NAMIBIA ALBANIA ZIMBABWE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BOTSWANA GABON JAMAICA MALAWI CONGO, REP. MACEDONIA, FYR NICARAGUA PAPUA NEW GUINEA KYRGYZ REPUBLIC MAURITIUS LAO PDR GEORGIA MOLDOVA TAJIKISTAN GUINEA MONGOLIA MAURITANIA LIBERIA

ISO CODE
BGR CIV AZE URY SEN LTU SLV ZMB CMR HND BOL PRY MDG BIH LVA TKM MLI EST MOZ KHM NAM ALB ZWE TTO BWA GAB JAM MWI COG MKD NIC PNG KGZ MUS LAO GEO MDA TJK GIN MNG MRT LBR

CONTRIbUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020
0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%

REGION
EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 91

MAP 5:
Shows the spatial distribution of Ranking 5.

Rank
1 128

FIGURE 5:
Illustrates Ranking 5 by plotting the expected contribuyion to total GDP of each country as a fuction of GDP per capita.

100%
USA CHN

Expected contribution to the increase in total world GDP [2009-2020]

10%
IND BRA MEX

JPN DEU GBR FRA ITA ESP CAN AUS POL SAU

1%
PAK PHL NGA VNM

IDN THA IRN

RUS TUR ARG COL ZAF MYS

KOR

EGY

BGD

0.1%
LBR

ETH

TZA UGA MOZ MDG ZWE GIN

PER UKR DZA MAR SYR AGO KEN GTM ECU DOM BLR TUN YEM SDN LKA HRV JOR SRB PAN OMN GHA CUB CRIBGR LBN LBY UZB MRT CIV SLV AZE URY LTU SEN BOL HND ZMB PRY CMR MLI LVA EST TKM BIH KHM LAO NIC MNG MDA TJK KGZ PNG COG GEO ALB NAM JAM MKD BWA MUS GAB TTO

NLD SWE CHE BEL VEN ISR AUT ARE HKG CZE NOR GRC SGP IRL FIN DNK ROU CHL PRT KWT HUN NZL KAZ QAT SVK SVN

MWI

0.01% 10 2

10 3 10 4 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 5

PA R T 3

CoUNtRY PaGes

hoW to reaD the CoUntry pages

1. IDEnTIT Y: here we identify the country using its name and flag.

2 . M A I n I n D I C ATO R S : this section shows the economic Complexity index (eCi) for the year 2008 and the expected average annualized growth for the 2009-2020 period. the first number shows the value of the indicator. numbers in parenthesis show the global ranking and the regional ranking for the country.

5. ThE PRODUCT SPACE: this section shows the position of a country in the product space. the product space is the network summarizing global similarities in the productive knowhow required by products (see Chapter 5). nodes represent products and are colored according to communities using the color legend that can be found at the top right of the next page. node size is proportional to global trade in that product and links connect products that tend to be exported by the same countries (see technical Box 5.1). the footprint of a country on the product space is indicated using square nodes with thick black outlines. these are the goods that the country exports with rCa>1 (see Chapter 2).

bRazIl
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.244 / (52/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.73% / (48/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

6. EXPORT OPPORTUnITY SPECTRUM: these two figures summarize the position of a country in the product space. here, bubbles represent a community of products and their size is proportional to global trade in that product community. the fraction of each bubble that is shown in white represents the fraction of all goods in that community for which the country has an rCa>1. in this example, out of 125 products in Machinery, Brazil makes 32 of them, so 75% of the circle is filled with the color corresponding to the machinery community. in both charts, the vertical axis shows the average complexity of the products in that community that the country is not currently making. the horizontal axis on the left figure shows the distance between the country’s current productive structure to each one of the product communities. the horizontal of the right figure displays the opportunity gain, which is a measure of the number of new products that become closer if the country were to move into that community (see technical Box 5.3). For both the distance and opportunity gain measures, only the products that are more complex than the country’s complexity level are considered. the dashed grey line indicates the country’s level of economic complexity measured using the economic Complexity index (eCi). natural resource based communities are not shown (mining, precious stones, coal and oil). Communities for which countries export all products are not shown.

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.8 0.81 0.82

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1k 800 600 400 200 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

7. E v O L U T I O n O f E X P O R T C O M P O S I T I O n : this section shows the evolution of the country’s exports per capita in dollars between 1968 and 2008 at constant 2008 prices. Colors indicate product communities.these are indicated in the top right corner of the next page (for states that were formed after 1968, we use as starting year the first year for which data is available).

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 95

3 . T R A D I T I O n A L I n D I C ATO R S : this section shows a small set of indicators that can be used to put the country in context. For each indicator, the first number shows its value and the numbers in parenthesis show the country’s corresponding global and regional ranking. the region the country belongs to is shown to the right of the indicators.

4. PRODUCT COMMUnITIES: this legend shows the colors used to indicate the community to which each product belongs. these are the colors used to identify product communities in the product space, export opportunity spectrum, evolution of export Composition and export treemap sections of the country page.

POPULATION ≥ 192 M / (5/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 198 b / (21/2)

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (9/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,609 / (50/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,031 / (77/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (120/20)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

ELECTRONICS

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

AGROCHEMICALS

bOILERS

PULP & PAPER

METAL PRODUCTS

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

PETROCHEMICALS

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

LEATHER

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

GARMENTS

MISC. AGRICULTURE

FOOD PROCESSING

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

PRECIOUS STONES

AIRCRAFT

MILK & CHEESE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TObACCO

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

MACHINERY

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

NOT CLASSIFIED

1968
0711 (47%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.17 b / 228.33 b (0.95%)
Total Exports: 2.17 B / 228.33 B (0.95%)

1988
0577 (1.2%) 2654 (1.2%) 0422 2482 (4.6%) 2472 0149 0111 6649 2681 2120 0360 2222 5513 2877 (1.7%) 6673 2879 6725

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 37.39 b / 2.79 T (1.34%)
Total Exports: 37.39 B / 2.79 T (1.34%)

2631 (8.1%)

0813 (8.2%)

0711 (8.6%)

2815 (5.5%)

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

HOME & OFFICE

2816 (2.4%)

2517 (2%)

6412 6415 6413

2873 2222 (3.1%) 6841 (3.7%) 4232 1212 (1.7%) 0723 0577 (0.88%) 0721 0611 0811 8510 (4.8%) 6727 (1.7%) 6712 (1.5%) 6716 (1.4%) 6746 (1.3%) 6744 (1.4%) 6724 6745 7821 (1.9%) 6731 7431 7224 7139 7132 6251 7842 7259 7138 0111 (1.4%) 6521 0149 6114 (1.2%) 2919 0360

6732 (1.1%) 2483

6342

0440 (3.7%)

0813 (2.2%)

4245 (2%)

0115

6513 6871

6725 (3.2%)

0712 (1.1%) 5831 (0.88%)

0721 (2.7%) 0612

0723 0611 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0585 (4.7%)

0712 (1.3%) 4314 0573 0585

6747 7621 2814

6252 7923 0114

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP
7821 (1.6%)

TOTAL EXPORTS: 198.08 b / 15.56 T (1.27%) Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%)
7234 (1.2%) Construction & mining machinery 7139 (1.2%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets 6712 (2.2%) Pig & cast iron 2815 (7.9%) Not agglomerated iron ore 0114 (4.3%) Poultry meat

7849 (2.5%) Other vehicles parts

MINING

SHIPS

6716 (1.6%) Ferro-alloys 0111 (2.9%) Bovine meat 7924 (3.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons 7643 (1.6%) Television & radio transmitters 7938 (1.1%) 6252 Special floating structures 0711 (3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0612 (1.3%) Refined sugar 6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2517 (2.7%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate 2782 2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (1.3%) Aluminium ore

7832

7132

7841 7169

7212

7431 (0.61%) 7162 (0.6%)

7842 6731 7923 0813 (3.1%) Oilcake

2877 2871 (0.85%) Copper 5112 5146 0712 2483 (0.65%) 6342 6353 6624 5831 5221 5629 5161

0149 (1.7%) Other 0113 (0.97%) prepared or preserved meat & entrails 6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather 0224

2222 (7.8%) Soya beans

6415

0585 (1.5%) 5121 (1.8%) Fruit or Acyclic alcohols vegetable juices & derivatives

8. EXPORT TREEMAPS: this section shows treemaps summarizing the composition of a country’s exports for the years 1968, 1988 and 2008. the total area represents 100% of the country’s exports, whereas the smaller areas represent the share of each product. products are grouped in communities and colored accordingly. the first number shows the sitC4 rev2 code for the product. parenthesis show the share of trade represented by that good. name of products with large export shares are shown for 2008. For a full list of products see http://atlas.media.mit.edu

0611 (2.6%) Raw 4232 (1.9%) Soya bean oil sugar beet & cane

1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0440 (1%)

2631

8510 (1.3%) Footwear

6613

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

96 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

“More interactive visualizations can be

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 97

found at: http://atlas.media.mit.edu”

98 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

albaNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.087 / (58/19) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.05% / (32/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
480 384 288 192 96 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 99

POPULATION ≥ 3.1 M / (114/23) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 b / (124/26)

GDP ≥ USD 13 b / (107/22) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,126 / (75/20)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 484 / (96/22) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (124/27)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking) Eastern Europe and Central Asia

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.07 M / 228.33 b (0.005%)
Total Exports: 11.07 M / 228.33 B (0.005%)

1988
0544 (3.2%) 2924 (2.2%) 0542 2631 (4.4%) 0577 (0.81%) 2922 (0.79%) 1222 2681 (1%) 0113 6592 (1.5%) 6513 (1.3%) 0360 5232 (1.7%) 7731 (1.2%) 0440 (5.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 235.66 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 235.66 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

2879 (24%)

6821 (12%)

2879 (19%)

2872 (4.6%)

1223 (5.8%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2924 (3.2%)

0544 (3%)

3354 (3%) 2882 (1.1%) 2789 (0.99%) 6716 (15%) 2815 (1%) 3353 (1%) 6712 (3.1%)

1222 (1.8%)

1211 (1.6%)

1212 0412 4235 (1.7%) 0579 0561

0752 0577 5232 (5.1%)

2114 (1.8%) 3354 (14%) 3330 (6.6%) 2789 (3.7%) 2116 (1.2%) 6521 (1.9%) 6612 (1.3%)

0575 5322 3352 8960

6612 2890

0545 (6.9%)

1124 6822 (1.3%) (1.2%)

6822 (2.8%)

8429 (1.1%) 8431 (1%)

8423 8441 6592 (2.6%) 8997

0012 8211 (0.99%) 7731

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.52 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.52 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
6991 (4.1%) Base metal locksmiths wares N.E.S. 7169 (0.97%) Parts of rotating electric plants 8743 N.E.S. (0.64%) 7161 7411 (0.91%) 2879 (5%) Other non-ferrous base Gas metals generators & parts 7264 2871 (1.8%)

8510 (8.8%) Footwear

8423 (6.3%) Men's trousers

6123 (8.5%) Non-metal & non-abestos footwear material

6725 (4.6%) Iron/steel billets 6716 (2.4%) Ferro-alloys

7921

2882 (2.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals

3354 (1.8%) Petroleum bitumen N.E.S.

7144

6612 (1.6%) Cement 2731

8462 (5.6%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (2.1%) Other 8435 knitted outerwear

8451 (1.1%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8463 (1.1%)

6733 6732 (5.7%) Iron/steel rods

0371 (1.7%) Fish N.E.S.

2924 (1.7%) Flora in pharmacy

8441 (3.2%) Men's undershirt

8439 (1.1%) Other women outerwear 8429 8472

8471

8422 6354 8219 6842 (0.58%) 8211 3510 2483 6624

6114 2820 (1.7%) Iron & steel waste 6421 (2%) Paper packing containers 8931 5629 (0.54%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

100 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

alGeRIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.213 / (114 / 13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.28% / (110/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.987 0.988 0.989 0.99 0.991 0.992 0.993 0.994

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 101

POPULATION ≥ 34 M / (33/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 79 b / (40/5)

GDP ≥ USD 171 b / (46/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,974 / (67/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,310 / (55/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 46 % (36/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 934.18 M / 228.33 b (0.41%)
Total Exports: 934.18 M / 228.33 B (0.41%)

1988
1121 (8.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.99 b / 2.79 T (0.32%)
Total Exports: 8.99 B / 2.79 T (0.32%)

3330 (84%)

3330 (57%)

3413 (36%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6727

6749 6712 7283
0579 0565 (1.3%) 0571 (2.1%) 0812 0541 6592

2713 3345 3352 2820 7752

2116

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 79.36 b / 15.56 T (0.51%) Total Exports: 79.36 B / 15.56 T (0.51%)
3414 (20%) petroleum gases

3330 (58%) Crude petroleum

3413 (20%) liquified hydrocarbons

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

102 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

aNGola
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.793 / (127 / 25) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.54% / (127/25)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.9945 0.995 0.9955 0.996 0.9965 0.997 0.9975

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3.6 k 2.8 k 2.1 k 1.4 k 720 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 103

POPULATION ≥ 18 M / (52/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 65 b / (47/3)

GDP ≥ USD 84 b / (61/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,671 / (70/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,601 / (45/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 77 % (9/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (51%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 289.36 M / 228.33 b (0.13%)
Total Exports: 289.36 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

1988
6673 (22%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.07 b / 2.79 T (0.1%)
Total Exports: 2.70 B / 2.79 T (0.1%)

2654 (3.6%)

3330 (89%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6672 (7.5%)

2631 (3.2%)

0440 (4.3%)

2232 0573 2877 (0.98%) (0.84%) 2472 (2.5%) 4242 0548 0542 2924 0721

0814 (1.6%) 6575

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 64.94 b / 15.56 T (0.42%) Total Exports: 64.94 B / 15.56 T (0.42%)

3330 (99%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

104 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

aRGeNtINa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.106 / (57 / 7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.61% / (54/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.75 0.8 0.85

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 105

POPULATION ≥ 40 M / (30/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 70 b / (44/4)

GDP ≥ USD 327 b / (29/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,189 / (53/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,755 / (65/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (93/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0111 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.54 b / 228.33 b (0.68%)
Total Exports: 1.54 B / 228.33 B (0.68%)

1988
0813 (5.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 10.57 b / 2.79 T (0.38%)
Total Exports: 10.57 B / 2.79 T (0.38%)

0011 (2.4%) 0115 (2.1%)

0440 (13%)

0813 (16%)

0440 (4.7%)

0111 (3.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0149 (2.5%) 0115 (0.9%) 0616

0344 (1.3%) 0342 2682 2919 (1.5%) 6512

0360 (1.2%) 0343 2681 (1.5%) 2687

4236 (4.2%)
0149 (9.5%) 0112 (1.3%) 0116 (1.3%) 4113 2681 (5.5%) 2682 (3.2%) 2111 (3.9%) 5922 2120 6114 6512 2919 2116 0452 (1.5%) 0612 8921 0579 (0.93%) 0545 0741 4235 6782 0546 7512 6732 2876 0141 (1.3%) 4241 (1.8%) 4236 (1.6%) 0812 (3.3%) 0574 (4.4%) 4234 (1.2%) 0430

6114 (5.2%) 0412 (4%) 4232 (3.8%)

0459 (2.9%)

2222 (6.7%)

0814 5322 (1.6%) 2911

0459 (1.9%)

2631 (1.9%)

6783 6727 6782 (0.9%) (0.87%) (1.8%) 6745 6725 6731 4241 4249 6746 6749 7525 2221 0574 (1.5%) 0542 1212 5112 5322 5831 (1.2%) 0812 4233 0571 0572 0611 5113

0579 0585 (1.4%) 6841 (2.2%) 6842 2472 8481 6123

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 70.04 b / 15.56 T (0.45%) Total Exports: 70.04 B / 15.56 T (0.45%)
4232 (8.8%) Soya bean oil 7810 (5.1%) Cars 7821 (3.4%) Trucks & vans 0111 (2.5%) Bovine meat 0114

0813 (13%) Oilcake

0616 0116 0360 (1.1%) 7849 (2.3%) Other vehicles parts 7239 (1.9%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 6782 (0.74%) 7831 6251 7924 3413 (2%) liquified hydrocarbons 4236 (2.7%) Sunflower seed oil 0430 2871 (2%) Copper 4311 9710 (1.3%) 6841 (1.2%) Gold, Unwrought non-monetary aluminium & aluminium alloys 5913 (0.79%) 5530 (0.64%) 0819 5831 (0.58%) 0589 0914 5989 (1.9%) Chemical products 5839 6114 (1.6%) Bovine & equine leather 1121 (1.2%) Wine 0579 (0.92%) 0585 0224 (0.89%)

0344

0342

0240

2222 (8.3%) Soya beans

0440 (6.4%) Unmilled maize

0412 (4.6%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

0460 (0.8%)

0488 0812

0482

0572

0459 0422

2221

1212

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

106 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

aUstRalIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.321 / (79 / 12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.23% / (114/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
8.8 k 7k 5.2 k 3.5 k 1.7 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 107

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (46/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 189 b / (22/7)

GDP ≥ USD 1 T / (14/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 48,499 / (12/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,819 / (28/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (104/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2681 (32%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.73 b / 228.33 b (1.63%)
Total Exports: 3.73 B / 228.33 B (1.63%)

1988
2875 2874 2876 6811 (1.5%) 6861 2873 2877 0460 (1.5%) 2879 (2.3%) 5225 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 35.26 b / 2.79 T (1.26%)
Total Exports: 35.26 B / 2.79 T (1.26%)

2682 6851 (3.2%) (2.5%)

3222 (16%)

2815 (6.9%)

2681 (13%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0111 (6%)

0012 (0.93%) 0112 (0.91%) 4113

6512 (0.92%) 0611 (4.5%) 2686 0111 (9.9%) 0112 (2.6%) 0230 (2.3%) 0224 0240 (0.94%) 5922 6749 0116 0149 2116 (2.5%) 2111 0360 6727 (1.6%) 2919 4113 6731

2873 (4.7%)
6673 2872 0612 0574

6861 2877 2682 (2.9%) 2816

2111 (1%) 0360 0224 (1.6%) 0240 6512 2116 0611 (2.4%) 8822 5249 2631 (1.1%) 0372 3345 2460 (1.4%) 6842

0488 0452 0482 6822 0589 (2.4%) 9610 (1.4%) 6712 2820 0579

6841 (6.7%)

6851 2875 2783 2874

2879 (1.6%)

6821

0412 (4.1%)

2871 2872 (1.4%) 5225 6831 5241 3413 0430

0575

6749 6725 1121 0589 7132 0579

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 188.89 b / 15.56 T (1.21%) Total Exports: 188.89 B / 15.56 T (1.21%)
9710 (8.5%) Gold, non-monetary 0111 (3%) Bovine meat 0112 (0.82%)

3222 (28%) Other coal

0116

0224 (0.82%) 3413 (6.2%) liquified hydrocarbons

2681 (1.2%) Sheep or lambs greasy wool 0360

0240

0412 (2.2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2815 (18%) Not agglomerated iron ore 2873 (3.9%) Aluminium ore 6841 (3.1%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2875 (0.76%) 6851 0430 (0.75%) 8720 2871 (2.4%) Copper 2877 (1.2%) 6861 (0.62%) 2860
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8996

6832

6821 (1.6%) 6831 (1.4%) Unwrought Unwrought nickel copper & & nickel alloys copper alloys 2872 (0.95%)

1121 (1.5%) Wine

2460 (0.68%) 2820

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

108 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

aUstRIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.807 / (5/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.10% / (81/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64

0 -0.07 -0.065 -0.06 -0.055 -0.05 -0.045 -0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
21 k 16.8 k 12.6 k 8.4 k 4.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 109

POPULATION ≥ 8.3 M / (77/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 172 b / (27/11)

GDP ≥ USD 415 b / (25/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 49,739 / (11/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 20,631 / (12/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 41 % (43/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.94 b / 228.33 b (0.85%)
Total Exports: 1.94 B / 228.33 B (0.85%)

1988
8472 (2.6%) 6560 (2.2%) 6522 (1.3%) 8471 6517 (0.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 31.40 b / 2.79 T (1.12%)
Total Exports: 31.40 B / 2.79 T (1.12%)

7499 7411 7281 7491 6746 (3.9%) (1.8%)

6623 (2.6%)

7132 (4.3%)

6418 7492 7281 7361

6770 8731 7851 6727 (2.8%) 8812 6631 7212 8947 7788 6577 6822 6783 (1.4%) (1.2%) 6782 6991 6992 6716 (1.2%) 6760 7283 8124 6733 6745 7911 2482 (6.4%) 2483 (3.5%) 6842 6412 6415 (1.5%) (3.3%) (1.4%) 2518 6633 6732 (3.5%) 7731 6911 6996 6341 6416 6618 6953 6924 (1.1%) 6343 8960

6251 7452 7493 7272 7436 7491

2482 (2.7%)

6732 7731

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6343 8219 6997 6428

6412 (2.9%) 6415 (1.7%) 8842 (1%) 6413 6411 6652 8960

8510 (2.4%)

7284 (2.5%) 6782 (1.3%) 6991 (1.2%) 7611 (1.8%)

7449 7259 8743

6842 (1.9%) 3510 (1.4%) 5416

6911 6353 6633 8939 (1.1%)

6424 8921 2671 (1.6%) 5621 (1%) (0.9%) 5335 6419 5137 (0.95%) 0011 (2.9%) 6512 2782 (1.4%) 0240 6841 6998 (1.3%) 2789 6421

7721 7234 7499 7162

5831 (1.2%) 6658 5832 6210 5834 0111 5621 0011 6517 6114 6421 0585 0484

7442 6954 6731 7822 6785 6760 8947 7638 6746 (1.5%) (1.7%) 6749 6623 (1%)

2671 6745 6783 (0.86%) 5148 6822 6727 8510 6744 6716 (1.4%) 6252 7915 6560 6770 5839 8742

0118 6658 7852 8998 (1.2%) 8842 8993 6960

6413

8972 8928 2665

8124 7761 8983 7712

8462 8431 6522 8459 8465 (0.98%) 8463 6516

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 172.26 b / 15.56 T (1.11%) Total Exports: 172.26 B / 15.56 T (1.11%)
7849 (3.5%) Other 7234 (1.4%) vehicles parts Construction & mining machinery 6991 (1.3%) 7139 7224 7919 Base metal (0.86%) locksmiths wares N.E.S. 7493 7492 6954 6842 (1.6%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 7188 7758 7413 6418 8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5821 5416 (1.7%) Glycosides & vaccines 5839 7915 8742 5831 (0.84%) 6353 (1.2%) Builders` carpentry & joinery 5417 (3.2%) Medicaments 2482 (1.4%) 3510 Worked wood of coniferous 6732 7731 (0.84%) 6997 (0.78%) 6924 6973 8211 6416 1110 (1.4%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 0980 (0.6%) 6421 (0.58%) 2820 (0.5%) 8928 6745 6210 5832 6998 6821 8972 8931 0113 6633 6415

7810 (5%) Cars

6412 6413

7132 (3%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

7284 (2.5%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7162 (1.1%) 7239 AC electric (0.89%) motors & generators 7452 7281 6782

6911

6343

7491

7499 7272 7832

7361 7283 7436 6785 7416 8121 6760

7842 7259

7821 (1.8%) Trucks & vans

7721 (1.8%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7442 (1.6%) Lifting & loading machinery

0223

7783 7212 7431

6114

7643 (1.1%) 7712 (0.84%) 8942 (0.82%)

7788 (0.74%) 7763 (0.69%)

8124

6749 (1.7%) Other worked iron/steel sheets 6744

6746 (0.77%)

7711

7415

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

110 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

azeRbaIjaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.223 / (117/27) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.25% / (112/27)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98 0.985

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
5.5 k 4.4 k 3.3 k 2.2 k 1.1 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 111

POPULATION ≥ 8.7 M / (76/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 48 b / (55/10)

GDP ≥ USD 46 b / (74/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,329 / (65/17)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,507 / (37/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 103 % (4/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2631 (61%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 53.45 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)
Total Exports: 53.45 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

2001
6592 (8.5%) 6521 (5.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.34 b / 5.90 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 2.34 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

3330 (93%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2634 0577

6513 (2.9%)

1211 1222

6841 (3.8%)

5623 (0.94%) 2820 (2.1%)

5113

7239

2882 (3.1%) 2116 6821 (1.6%) 6861 0571 0572 2320 8973 2112 2681 7415 (1.2%) 8960

7832 5831

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 47.78 b / 15.56 T (0.31%) Total Exports: 47.78 B / 15.56 T (0.31%)

3330 (98%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

112 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

baNGlaDesh
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.887 / (103/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.40% / (65/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.94 0.96

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
100 80 60 40 20 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 113

POPULATION ≥ 160 M / (7/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 17 b / (71/3)

GDP ≥ USD 80 b / (62/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 497 / (120/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 104 / (123/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (95/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 731.88 M / 228.33 b (0.32%)
Total Exports: 731.88 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

1988
6521 (4.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.25 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 1.25 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

2640 (26%)

6513 (8.4%)

8441 (15%)

8439 (8.1%)

0360 (14%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6114 (5.3%)

6522 (4%)

6592 (1.1%) 6549

6116 (3.3%) 6581 (4.1%) 8423 (3%) 8463 (2.3%) 8431 0342 0350 6545 (8.5%) 8459 (1%) 8429 8434 8421 (0.99%) 0741 (2.1%) 0118 2640 (4.6%)

6113 (3.1%)

2631 (15%)

6545 (9.9%)

6581 (8.4%)

8510 2633

2111 5621 (2.5%)

8435 (3.9%)
6118 (3.7%) 0422 (3.9%) 2634 (1.3%) 6113 6114 2919 0360 (1.3%) 0350 8947 (0.76%) 2911 2681 2682

8462 (3.1%) 6519

8451 8443 8452 8433 (0.93%)

0545

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 16.58 b / 15.56 T (0.11%) Total Exports: 16.58 B / 15.56 T (0.11%)
8423 (14%) Men's trousers 8439 (10%) Other women outerwear 0360 (2.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

8462 (21%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (6.5%) Other knitted outerwear 8451 (17%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

6584 (2.7%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

8429 (2.2%) Other men outerwear

8435 (1.7%) Blouses

6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather

2640 (1%) Raw processed jute and other fibres 8510 (1.2%) 8463 Footwear 8434 6581 8465 6582 8431 8484 (0.76%) 8452 (0.72%) 5621

8441 (6.3%) Men's undershirt

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

114 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

belaRUs
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.116 / (21/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.99% / (4/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

0.5

0 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3.4 k 2.7 k 2k 1.3 k 680 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 115

POPULATION ≥ 9.7 M / (74/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 33 b / (58/11)

GDP ≥ USD 61 b / (65/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,277 / (61/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,409 / (46/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (24/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
5623 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 942.42 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 942.42 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

2001
6672 (2.8%) 7224 (7.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.25 b / 5.90 T (0.11%)
Total Exports: 6.25 B / 5.90 T (0.11%)

5156 (2%)

6841 (9.1%)

7821 (7.4%)

7224 (4%)

6931 6259 7752 (3.1%) 6732 (1.5%) (2.6%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8219 (2.3%)

8431 8510 (1.2%) (1.1%) 8465 8459 6514 (1.8%) 6531 (1.1%) 2666 6517 8931 0620 0612 (1.7%) 6522 6544 1124 1123

5138 (1.5%) 8720 5148 5112 5621 (5.8%) 5831 5629 8431 (2.5%) 8439 (1.9%) 8429 8465 8421 6514 (1.7%) 2666 (1.3%) 2651 (1.3%) 6517 6544 6342 7752 6416 5981 2882 2482 (2.7%) 2890 5225 8219 2665 (6.7%) (1.4%) 2471 6732 6618 6351 6643 5922 (1.5%) 0224 0011 0372 (0.97%) (0.77%) 2631 5823 (2.2%) 3224 0546 2820 0579 2672 6821 (1.8%) 6725 (2.2%) 6259 6770 6931 6114 (1.1%)

7832 (2.1%) 7234 7491 7831 7783 7212 7132 7361 5623 (9%)

6252 6644 6633 6770 7711 6624 2482 6353 6251 6572 (1.3%) 6342 7611 8710 7162 7758 (0.85%) 6973 7861 6940 7422 8124 (1%) (0.98%) 6725 7852 6652 6415 5621 5334 6419 6546 0224 (1.3%) 0230 2665 (1.7%) (1.5%) 5922 0240 0113 0251 6114 5823 5831 (1.7%) 5156 (0.95%) (1.2%) 3352 6651 0111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 32.96 b / 15.56 T (0.21%) Total Exports: 32.96 B / 15.56 T (0.21%)
7832 (2.2%) Tractors for semi-trailers 7212 (1.3%) Harvesting & threshing machines 7234 (1%) Construction & mining machinery 7442 7831 6259 (2.1%) Other tires 6931 articles (1.2%) 6732 (4.3%) Iron/steel rods 7731 (1.1%) Electric wire 6633 (0.99%) 7861 6770 (1.1%) 7711 Not insulated iron/steel wire 6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets 6252 8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 7752 (1.9%) Refrigerators & freezers 6353 8211 6359 2472 6996 6911 6343 6531 8465 6416 2471 6624 6973

7224 (6.1%) Wheeled tractors

7821 (5.8%) Trucks & vans

7132 (0.98%) Internal combustion engines for 7822 motor vehicles 7431

6644

6940 7188

0240 (2.5%) Cheese & curd 5989 (2.2%) Chemical products

5623 (20%) Potassic fertilizers

0224 (2.3%) 6514 Preserved, (0.78%) concentrated or sweetened milk & 2666 cream

0230 (1.2%) Butter 5922 5156 (0.86%) 0111 (1.4%) 0113 0149 0142

0223

3413 (1.6%) liquified hydrocarbons

2783

6419 6546

5831 (0.97%) Polyethylene

0371

2665 (0.73%) 5823

0612 (0.96%) Refined sugar 8931 (1%)

6114

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

116 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

belGIUM
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.085 / (22/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.86% / (97/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.59 0.6 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
45 k 36 k 27 k 18 k 9k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 117

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (66/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 477 b / (8/5)

GDP ≥ USD 505 b / (20/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 47,194 / (14/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 44,544 / (4/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 94 % (6/1)

* Data are from 2008 . Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.88 b / 228.33 b (3.45%)
Total Exports: 7.88 B / 228.33 B (3.45%)

1988
5629 (1.2%) 5232 6732 (4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 93.29 b / 2.79 T (3.34%)
Total Exports: 93.29 B / 2.79 T (3.34%)

6733 (4.9%)

6746 (4.6%)

7810 (9.7%)

8822 (2.4%)

7810 (13%)

6727 (2.2%)

6746 6749 6672 (8.4%) (1.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6842 (1.6%)

5155

3345

6822 (2.4%)

6749 (1.2%) 6747

6725 6731 (1.4%) 8946 7831 7212 6783 6770 (1.6%) 6672 (6.3%) 6644 6998

5137 6419 5542 5621 6649 (0.85%) 6424 0819 6643 8922 5335 6512 (2.4%) 0113 0013

5622 2733 6842 (1.3%)

6618 6911 6633 6924 6412

7821 (1.5%) 6418

6727 (1.3%) 6745 6821 (7.5%)

0114 0545 0730 6130 0565 0484 0980 6935 2820 2926 6651 6932 2665 0482

7234 7783 (1.3%) 7449 7431 7493 5113

7842 8121

6733 (1.3%) 6744 (1%) 6822 (1.2%) 6725 6770 6931 6644 7611 7781

6745

6821 6861 5225 (0.9%) 0113 0224 0230 0730 0111 0149 0011 6595 (1.6%) 5823 0484

8219 (0.81%) 6911 8211 3510 6343 6633 6924 6649 6412 8960

8822 (1.4%) 2331 5156 5839 5989 5148 5824

2682 2686 0224 6851 6861 6811 6522 6517 8472 (0.92%) 6519 (0.93%) 6584 2651 6612

5417 (1.4%)

8939 5831 (1.8%)

5542 8921 6573 0819 5335 5629 5232

5832 (1%) 5834

5621 5913 5833

6514 6516 6539 6594 6596 8423

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 477.19 b / 15.56 T (3.07%) Total Exports: 477.19 B / 15.56 T (3.07%)
8720 (1.3%) Medical 8822 instruments N.E.S. 5137 5829 5146 5824 2331 5831 (1.9%) Polyethylene 5111 5331 5161 7842 7436 6672 (4.5%) Not mounted diamonds 5145 8996 5123 7810 (9.1%) Cars 7821 (1.1%) 7832 (0.8%) 7493 6746 (1.1%) 7431 7783 7851 7781 6954 6842 (0.7%) 6911 5832 6812 6821 5833 5913 3352 0730 0546 8931 0585 5629 0484 0980 0579 1123 8928 6421 5121 2820 0224 0573 6595 0113 (0.52%) 8124 6428 8510 (1.1%) Footwear 8310 8423 7784 6744 (0.98%) 6733 6727 (1.8%) Iron/steel coils 6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

5156 (1.8%) 5416 (1.8%) Heterocyclic Glycosides & compound; nucleic vaccines acids 5148 (1.7%) Other nitrogen-function compounds 5989 (1.6%) Chemical products 5417 (12%) Medicaments 5839

7234 (1.1%)

6822

3414 (2.6%) petroleum gases

8939

5530 (0.59%) 5542

5419 5334

5621

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

118 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bolIvIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.879 / (101/20) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (89/19)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
710 568 426 284 142 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 119

POPULATION ≥ 9.7 M / (73/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6.9 b / (88/12)

GDP ≥ USD 17 b / (99/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,720 / (96/20)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 714 / (87/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (42/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 135.17 M / 228.33 b (0.06%)
Total Exports: 135.17 M / 228.33 B (0.06%)

1988
2879 (14%) 0711

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 578.38 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 578.38 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2876 (50%)

3414 (41%)

2875 (10%)

2876 (5.8%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0711 (3.7%)

0612 (1.7%)

0813 (1.3%) 2874 (2.2%)
2871 (4.1%) 0612 3330 (13%) 0577 6118 2874 (7.4%) 2875 (2.2%) 6872 2120

2222 0577 (1.3%) 2320

6871 (7.3%)

9710 (9.1%)

2879 (4.2%) 2483 (4%) 6116 6114

2890 (2.6%) 2741

2111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.92 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.92 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
2875 (12%) Zinc 0813 (4.6%) Oilcake

3414 (50%) petroleum gases

4232 (2.7%) Soya bean oil

4236 (1.8%) Sunflower seed oil

2222 2874 (2.7%) Lead ore 2876 (0.87%) Tin

2239 2224

0577 (1.4%) Edible nuts

0612

0542

2890 (8%) Ores and precious metals

9710 (2.2%) Gold, non-monetary

0711 6871 (3.7%) Unwrought tin & alloys

8973 (1.1%) Precious jewellery

2483 (0.87%)

6534 6513

5121

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

120 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bosNIa aND heRzeGovINa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.597 / (38/12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.59% / (8/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.3 k 1k 780 520 260 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 121

POPULATION ≥ 3.8 M / (107/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 b / (95/21)

GDP ≥ USD 19 b / (96/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,906 / (68/18)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,341 / (74/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (73/18)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

1994
8439 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 22.38 M / 4.30 b (0.001%)
Total Exports: 22.38 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

2001
7783 (3.9%) 6822 (2.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 915.09 M / 5.90 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 915.09 M / 5.90 T (0.02%)

8510 (5.7%)

8946 (6.1%)

2483 (9%)

8211 (4.8%)

8219 (2.4%)

6841 (19%)

FOOD PROCESSING

PETROCHEMICALS

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2873

7436 (5.8%) 6123 (3.9%) 8431 (3.6%) 8435 (2.3%) 8441 (2.2%) 8219 (1.2%) 6341 6911 6842

7493 (1.8%)

7284 (1.7%)

6716 (2.1%)

6733

6732 (1.6%) 2482 (5.3%) 3510 (1.5%) 2472

6911 2471 6341 5225 6353 2450 2882 6954 (1%) 7436 2783 8946 7783 2111 (2.8%) 7499 6940 0484 5232 0561 6935 1212 3223

7428 7832 7416 8922 (5%)

7643 (1.7%) 1121 (3%) 6841 (1.2%) 2783 2882 2924 (2.4%) 0118

8434 (3.1%) 6516 (2.3%)

8211 (2.3%) 8451 8424 8462 (1%) 8452 8481 2483 (1.9%) 8459 6513 (1.7%) 6589 6521 6517 6536 6652 (3.1%)

8510 (6.7%)

8424 8429 8431 (1.5%) (1.4%) 8462 8439 (3%) 8423 8421 8451 8422 (1.1%) 8465 8481 8459 (0.83%)

6123 (3%)

0819 (1.7%)

6716 (1.9%) 6783 6770 6733

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.06 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.06 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
6911 (3.1%) Iron/steel structures 2482 (2.2%) Worked wood of coniferous 7139 (3.9%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 6731 (2.5%) Iron/steel wire rod 8510 (4.3%) Footwear

3510 (6.1%) Electric current

2483 (3%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 8211 (5.3%) Chairs & seats 6842 (1.7%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 6732 (3.2%) Iron/steel rods 7731 (1.1%) Electric wire 6353 (1.4%) 6912

8219 (2.1%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6991 (0.69%) 7752 6417 7239 6997 8212 6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 5232 (1.1%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts 5221 (0.85%) 7924 (1.3%) 6770 Aircrafts of more than 15 tons 2111 6114 0484 8931 4236 7491 7169 7449 6123 (1.9%) Non-metal & non-abestos footwear material 8439 (1%) Other women outerwear 6584 8424 6129 0223 0149 8423 8431

2450 6428 3232 (3.9%) Coke & semi-coke of coal 2460 2873 (2.6%) Aluminium ore

6841 (8.2%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

2882 (1.2%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6794

2815 (1%) Not agglomerated iron ore

8939 6424 (0.98%) Miscellaneous articles of 5621 5138 plastic 6935 (2.2%) Gauze & 2820 (0.98%) netting

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

122 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

botsWaNa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.620 / (94/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.89% / (94/17)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 123

POPULATION ≥ 1.9 M / (123/24) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5 b / (97/11)

GDP ≥ USD 14 b / (105/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,050 / (56/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,582 / (54/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 37 % (54/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

2001

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.53 M / 5.90 b (0.04%)
Total Exports: 2.53 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

2005
2871 0111

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.43 M / 9.84 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 4.43 B / 9.84 T (0.05%)

6672 (88%)

6672 (78%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2871 (11%)

8451 (1.8%) 8435 8439 8423 8459

2111 7832

7832 (1.8%) 0111 (1.7%) 5232 0620

5232 8462

2783

9710

2783

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.96 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.96 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
2872 (16%) Nickel 8451 (1.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8439 (1.1%)

6672 (67%) Not mounted diamonds

8459

8423

8463

8435

8441 0111 (2%) Bovine meat

2871 (3.4%) Copper

9710 (2.2%) Gold, 7234 non-monetary (0.5%) 7832 5232 7861

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

124 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bRazIl
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.244 / (52/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.73% / (48/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.8 0.81 0.82

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1k 800 600 400 200 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 125

POPULATION ≥ 192 M / (5/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 198 b / (21/2)

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (9/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,609 / (50/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,031 / (77/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (120/20)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (47%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.17 b / 228.33 b (0.95%)
Total Exports: 2.17 B / 228.33 B (0.95%)

1988
0577 (1.2%) 2654 (1.2%) 0422 2482 (4.6%) 2472 0149 0111 6649 2681 2120 0360 2222 5513 2877 (1.7%) 6673 2879 6725

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 37.39 b / 2.79 T (1.34%)
Total Exports: 37.39 B / 2.79 T (1.34%)

2631 (8.1%)

0813 (8.2%)

0711 (8.6%)

2815 (5.5%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2816 (2.4%)

2517 (2%)

6412 6415 6413

2873 6841 (3.7%) 2222 (3.1%) 4232 1212 (1.7%) 0723 0577 (0.88%) 0721 0611 0811 8510 (4.8%) 6727 (1.7%) 6712 (1.5%) 6716 (1.4%) 6746 (1.3%) 6744 (1.4%) 6724 6745 7821 (1.9%) 6731 7431 7224 7139 7132 6251 7842 7259 7138 0111 (1.4%) 6521 0149 6114 (1.2%) 2919 0360

6732 (1.1%) 2483

6342

0440 (3.7%)

0813 (2.2%)

4245 (2%)

0115

6513 6871

6725 (3.2%)

0712 (1.1%) 5831 (0.88%)

0721 (2.7%) 0612

0723 0611 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0585 (4.7%)

0712 (1.3%) 4314 0573 0585

6747 7621 2814

6252 7923 0114

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP
7821 (1.6%)

TOTAL EXPORTS: 198.08 b / 15.56 T (1.27%) Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%)
7234 (1.2%) Construction & mining machinery 7139 (1.2%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets 6712 (2.2%) Pig & cast iron 2815 (7.9%) Not agglomerated iron ore 0114 (4.3%) Poultry meat

7849 (2.5%) Other vehicles parts

6716 (1.6%) Ferro-alloys 0111 (2.9%) Bovine meat 7924 (3.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons 7643 (1.6%) Television & radio transmitters 7938 (1.1%) 6252 Special floating structures 0711 (3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0612 (1.3%) Refined sugar 6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2517 (2.7%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate 2782 2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (1.3%) Aluminium ore

7832

7132

7841 7169

7212

7431 (0.61%) 7162 (0.6%)

7842 6731 7923 0813 (3.1%) Oilcake

2877 2871 (0.85%) Copper 5112 5146 0712 2483 (0.65%) 6342 6353 6624 5831 5221 5629 5161

0149 (1.7%) Other 0113 (0.97%) prepared or preserved meat & entrails 6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather 0224

2222 (7.8%) Soya beans

6415

0585 (1.5%) 5121 (1.8%) Fruit or Acyclic alcohols vegetable juices & derivatives

0611 (2.6%) Raw 4232 (1.9%) Soya bean oil sugar beet & cane

1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0440 (1%)

2631

8510 (1.3%) Footwear

6613

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

126 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bUlGaRIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.587 / (40/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.30% / (23/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74

2

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

0.5

0

-0.5 0 5 10 x 10 15
-3

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 127

POPULATION ≥ 7.6 M / (79/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 23 b / (65/14)

GDP ≥ USD 52 b / (71/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,798 / (58/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,965 / (51/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 44 % (38/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0011 (5.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 298.17 M / 228.33 b (0.13%)
Total Exports: 298.17 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

1988
0589 (2.2%) 6861 (4.1%) 6811 (1.5%) 6821 (2.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.29 b / 2.79 T (0.08%)
Total Exports: 2.29 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

0113 (3.9%)

0111 0240 0565 (4.4%) (2.1%)

7441 (7%)

7841 (6.4%)

7721 (2%)

5621 (4.1%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5417 (1.6%) 0819 5530

1121 (3.2%)

0545 (1.7%) 0012 (5%) 0114 (2.1%) 0118 0913 0112 0440 (4%) 4236 (2.8%) 0015 0013 0544 (2.7%) 0230 0585 0561 (0.96%) (0.9%) 5621 (6.4%) 0542

6851 (2.3%) 0583 0579 (0.84%) 1121 0546 6841 (1.8%) 6725 (4.5%)

7361 (1.9%) 7442 (6.7%)
6612 6522 (1.3%) 2613 (1.2%)

7522 (2.1%)
2519

7512 8983 7525

2924 0751 0615 (1.1%) 0541 4232 (1.8%) 5513 (1.6%) 2223 0575

5148 5232 (0.98%) (1.3%) 5169 5413

6727 (1.3%) 7915 (1.2%)

6712 6716 2483 5224 7781 7511 2665 (1.4%)

7528 (1.6%) 7781

7518

7449 7224 7784 5112 2331 5232 (1.2%) (1.2%) 5148 7188 (1.7%) 7783 0012 0011 0240 (2.8%) (0.87%) 6991 0118 7452 7367 0360 0251 7591 6727 (2.7%) 6744 0616 0342 1211 1223 0575 (2.3%) (1.5%) 6725 (2.6%) 6749 5513 7521 1222 (1.1%)

0545 (1%) 0565 5121 8421 (1%) 8441 2882 6851 8219 3510

0579

8435 8431 8459 8462 6861 6821

8998 2820

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP
7239 7442

TOTAL EXPORTS: 22.57 b / 15.56 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 22.57 B / 15.56 T (0.15%)
7441 7361 6821 (12%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys 8459 (2%) Other knitted outerwear 8431 (1.1%) 8423 (1.1%) 0412 (2.8%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

7492 (1.4%) Valves

7721 (1.3%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7188 (1.1%)

8439 (1.4%)

8462 (1%) 8510 8435 8424 8463

2224 (2%) Sunflower seeds

8451 (0.92%) 7781 (1.1%)

0430 (0.78%) 2226 1211 (1.2%) Unstripped tobacco

4236

6822 (2.4%) 6744 (2.2%) Worked copper & Iron/steel copper alloys >=4.75mm tick sheets

6123 (0.65%) 7611 (0.83%) Color T.V. 7711 2871 6851 (1.1%) 2882 (0.59%) 6861 (1.3%) 2890 Unwrought zinc & alloys 6343 6911 7852 6413 8219 (0.88%) 8212 2517 5831 (0.61%) 5832 6652 8422 (0.64%) 6514 6516

8434 8472 8310

0612

6727 (0.98%) Iron/steel coils

6783

3510 (3.6%) Electric current

6732 (2.2%) Iron/steel rods

7731 (1.4%) Electric wire

8211 (0.75%) 8122

5232 (1.3%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts 5622 5222

8745 (0.82%) 5148 8822

0484 (1%)

8931 (0.56%) 0589 0586

0565

1121 0114 5621 0240 6512 (0.71%)

7752 (1.1%) 6842 (1.7%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

5530 (0.67%) 0819

2820 (2%) Iron & steel waste

6651 (0.67%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

128 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CaMboDIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.702 / (98/13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.66% / (51/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
300 240 180 120 60 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 129

POPULATION ≥ 15 M / (57/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.4 b / (102/14)

GDP ≥ USD 10 b / (110/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 710 / (117/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 301 / (106/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (40/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 71.37 M / 228.33 b (0.03%)
Total Exports: 71.37 M / 228.33 B (0.03%)

1988
0011 (4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.46 M / 2.79 T (0.0003%)
Total Exports: 8.46 M / 2.79 T (0.0003%)

0422 (46%)

2320 (24%)

2320 (39%)

2222 (25%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2472 (13%)

2111 2471 (2.5%)

0812 (2.9%)

2929 (2.4%)

2472 0440 (4.7%) (1.3%) 0819 (2.7%)

2234 (8.2%)

2238 (1.7%) 2239 (1.4%) 2224 8960 (3.6%)

0751 (2.5%) 0421 2223 2924 (0.93%)

0577 (2.1%)

2221 (1.6%) 2929 (2.7%) 8921

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.38 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.38 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
8451 (17%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8928 (21%) Printed matter N.E.S.

8459 (33%) Other knitted outerwear

8464 (6.9%) null

8462 (3.5%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8429 (2.8%) Other men outerwear

8510 (2.1%) Footwear 8452 (3.7%) Knitted women's suits & dresses 8463 (1.8%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8439 (0.67%)

2733 (2.8%) Non metal-bearing sands

7852 (1.1%) 2320 (0.73%)

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

130 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CaMeRooN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.403 / (121/20) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.20% / (117/20)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

3

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.95

-2 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
330 264 198 132 66 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 131

POPULATION ≥ 19 M / (51/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 b / (94/9)

GDP ≥ USD 24 b / (89/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,243 / (100/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 267 / (108/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (92/18)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0721 (23%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 206.32 M / 228.33 b (0.09%)
Total Exports: 206.32 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

1988
2472 (8.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.67 b / 2.79 T (0.06%)
Total Exports: 1.67 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

0711 (28%)

3330 (42%)

0721 (13%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0711 (13%)

6842 2483 2481 6349 6341 6841 (9.3%) 0723 (7.5%) 0573 (4.4%)

0723 (2.4%)

2320 (2.4%)

0573 (1.4%) 4242 (0.93%) 2631 2483 (2.8%) 1211 6521

2472 (8.7%)
2232 (2.1%) 2320 (2.1%) 4242 2631 (4.9%) 2223 2221 0741 0730 (1.2%) 8510 (0.99%)

6841 (6.6%)

6341 (1.2%)

2471 0360

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.09 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.09 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
0573 (7.4%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 0721 (7.3%) Raw & roasted coffee 0711 beans

3330 (56%) Crude petroleum

2631

2320 (2.8%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0723 (1.1%) Cocoa butter & paste 2472 (3.3%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous 2820

2483 (11%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

6341 (1.5%) NULL 6841
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0579 0565

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

132 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CaNaDa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.571 / (41/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.67% / (104/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.75 0.8 0.85

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 133

POPULATION ≥ 33 M / (34/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 456 b / (11/2)

GDP ≥ USD 1.5 T / (11/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 45,003 / (15/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,689 / (19/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 30 % (65/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). North America.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
7810 (18%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 13.14 b / 228.33 b (5.75%)
Total Exports: 13.14 B / 228.33 B (5.75%)

1988
6831 (3.1%) 2872 (3%) 6841 (4.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 112.98 b / 2.79 T (4.04%)
Total Exports: 112.98 B / 2.79 T (4.04%)

6411 (12%)

7810 (17%)

6411 (6.7%)

2517 (5.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6841 (3.2%)

6831 (1.3%) 2741

2875 2882
2784 (2.5%) 2517 (5.4%) 7842 (6.5%) 7821 (3.4%) 2482 (8.4%) 7212 (1.7%) 6822 (1%) 6783 6994 2518 2516 6821 (3.3%) 6413 6412 6359 2483 5623 (1.2%) 0011 0113 2741 2875 (1.3%) 6851 2874 5225

2872 2784 5241 6821 (0.88%)

7849 (7%)

2871 (1.5%)

7132 (1.7%) 7139

7841 2482 (6%) 7831 6991 5623 (1.5%) 5831 5112 5249

6412 (1.2%)

2518 6413 2471 6997

3222 (2.4%) 2871 (1%) 3414 (2.3%)

6861 2815 6811 9710 5225 (0.88%) 5121 0371 1124

6861 2879 (1%) 5629 5221 1124 (1.9%) 2331 0360 2120 0430 0350 2919 2234 0460

7821 (5.5%)

7832 6251

0412 (2.4%)

2226 0411

0360 0344 0113

7928 (1.8%)

7929 (1.3%) 7149 7148

7641 6745 (0.91%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 455.73 b / 15.56 T (2.93%) Total Exports: 455.73 B / 15.56 T (2.93%)
7810 (10%) Cars 7849 (3.3%) Other vehicles parts 7821 7924 (1.1%)

3330 (20%) Crude petroleum

7923 7132 7239 7832 7442 7436 7499 7144 6783

7148

6252

3414 (9.6%) petroleum gases

2482 (1.5%) Worked wood of coniferous

3510 (1.1%)

8219

2517 (1.5%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate 6411 (1.3%) Newsprint 2519 6415 8939 (0.65%) 5831 (0.93%) Polyethylene 6413

0412 (1.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2226 (1.1%)

4239 0411

0542

6842 2872 (1.1%) 6831 5241 (0.59%) 2741 (0.59%) 9710 (2.6%) Gold, non-monetary 3222 (1.8%) Other coal 6861 6899 6841 (2.2%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 6821 (0.86%) 2871 (0.54%) 2816 8211 6911

6353 6428 6343

8931

0980

0113 (0.64%) 0011 0360 (0.58%) 2820

0111

5623 (1.9%) Potassic fertilizers

5839 (0.83%) 5112

0484 0546 5121

0730

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

134 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ChIle
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.312 / (78/12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.05% / (86/18)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.87 0.88 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
4k 3.2 k 2.4 k 1.6 k 800 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 135

POPULATION ≥ 17 M / (53/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 67 b / (46/5)

GDP ≥ USD 171 b / (47/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,167 / (45/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,957 / (44/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (50/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6821 (79%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.02 b / 228.33 b (0.45%)
Total Exports: 1.02 B / 228.33 B (0.45%)

1988
2871 0814 (2.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.37 b / 2.79 T (0.26%)
Total Exports: 7.37 B / 2.79 T (0.26%)

6821 (37%)

0814 (6.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0575 (6.8%)

2681 2517 6411 (0.95%)

2712 (2.2%)

0342 (1.7%) 0360 0341 0574 (3.6%) (0.78%) 0371 4111 0372 0344 0343 0542 2929 2482 (2.3%) 2871 (9%) 2879 (1.5%) 6811 (1.1%) 2815 9710 (1.6%) (0.95%) 2875 2471 2460 2479 0579 (3.3%) 1121 (1.6%) 0545 2472 2517 (4.5%) 6411 6412 5221 5629 2712 6822 0819

2879 0574 0575 6822 (1.6%)

0542 0545 0579

2816 (1.6%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 66.48 b / 15.56 T (0.43%) Total Exports: 66.48 B / 15.56 T (0.43%)
2871 (18%) Copper 0342 (2.2%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 0344 2517 (4.3%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate

6821 (38%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

0343 (0.95%)

0372 0341 2482 (1.6%) Worked wood of coniferous 6342 2460

0814 (0.85%) 0113 (0.57%) 1121 (2.3%) Wine

6416 (0.52%) 0980 (0.59%) 0586 0575 (2.4%) Grapes & raisins

0579 (2.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0574 (1.1%)

2879 (4.1%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6716 (1.4%) Ferro-alloys 9710 5225 6811 2816 2815 2882 6822 6418 5232 5221 (0.64%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

136 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ChINa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.894 / (29/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.32% / (1/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5 0.54

-0.5 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 137

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 b / (1/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.4 T / (2/1)

GDP ≥ USD 4.5 T / (3/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,414 / (82/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,080 / (76/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 32 % (63/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.57 b / 228.33 b (0.69%)
Total Exports: 1.57 B / 228.33 B (0.69%)

1988
0113 2919 (4.3%) 2114

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 61.94 b / 2.79 T (2.22%)
Total Exports: 61.94 B / 2.79 T (2.22%)

0422 (9.8%)

2222 (5.2%)

5513 4234 4239

0013 (2.9%)

8310 (3.8%) 8510 (2.9%)

8451 (2.8%) 8439 (2.6%)

6584 8942 (6.6%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7758 (1.1%) 6940

2631 (1.7%) 0741 0813 (1.6%) 2924 2222 0440 (0.8%) 0548 0565 (1.1%)

0149 6130 0118 0116 0014 0114 0545 0561 0565 (1.1%) 0360 (1.3%) 8942 8947 2783 2879 2683 (0.99%) 6991 7243 6940

0577 (1.7%) 0741 (1.6%) 6522 (5.7%)

2221 (1.3%) 0421 (1.2%)

2235 (0.82%) 4233 0612 (1.4%) 0752 0541 2613 (3.7%) 6584 (2.5%) 6513 (1.8%) 6517 6511 6592

2924 (1.8%) 0542 (1%)

8459 (2.1%) 8429 (1.6%) 8423 (1.5%) 6521 (1.9%) 6522 (1.8%)

8462 (1.7%)

8481 8997 8431 8441

7622 (1.6%)

7638 7611 8482

7161 6716 6712 7711

7628 7757 8852 7512 8442 8463 0360 (2.3%) 8124 2919 2683

8472 0579 0589 8471 6664 (0.99%) 8952

0483 0980 0121

8424 8435 6552 8421 6541 6534 (1.5%)

8472

6521 (4.7%) 6541 (1.4%)

8997 (1.2%) 8510

6612 2789 5981 6871 8999 (0.91%) (0.93%) (1.7%) 0819 5232

6592 6511 0341 6516 8851 8994 6513 2613 6544 (1.3%) 6519 6953 6664

6512 8212 5981

3222 5225 0546 0545 (0.89%) 6899 2879 0589 5221 6871 8999 (1.4%) 5413

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.43 T / 15.56 T (9.2%)
7649 (3.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 8942 (2.3%) Toys

Total Exports: 1.43 T / 15.56 T (9.2%)
7638 (2%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7611 (1.6%) Color T.V. 7763 (1.4%) Diodes & transistors 8510 (2.5%) Footwear 8310 (1.3%) Luggage & handbags 8462 (0.84%) 8459 (1.8%) Other knitted outerwear 8451 (1.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8219 (1.2%) 8439 (1.3%) Other women outerwear 8211 8463 6552 6584 8429 6522 (0.8%) 6531 (0.56%) 6514

7522 (6.6%) Digital data processing machines

8710 (2.1%) Optical instruments

8423 6589 8997

7518 (1.3%) 7712 (1.2%) 7643 (3.4%) Television & radio transmitters 7599 (2.8%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7415 (0.84%) 8124 (0.84%)

7781 (0.8%) 7641 (0.8%)

8472 8431 8452 7731 (1%) 8939 5155 (0.85%) Miscellaneous articles of 6573 plastic 3232 (0.52%) 6613 7853 0372 0344 8931

7525 (2.8%) Control & peripheral hardware

7758 (1%) 7492 Electro-thermal (0.86%) home appliances N.E.S.(0.77%) 7239 7442 7162

6991 6940

6782 6251

8947 7788 (1.1%) 7523 (0.71%) Other electrical 7757 machinery (0.59%) & equipment 7722 7642 N.E.S. 6749 (0.63%) 7782 6744 6716 (0.52%) 6746 6733 6252 7711 7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

7861 (0.83%) 6911 (0.81%) 6732 8212 7752 6624

6974 6953

7784

6783

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

138 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ColoMbIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.200 / (54/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.02% / (36/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
840 672 504 336 168 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 139

POPULATION ≥ 45 M / (27/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 38 b / (57/6)

GDP ≥ USD 243 b / (37/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,389 / (64/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 838 / (82/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (114/18)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (67%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 596.39 M / 228.33 b (0.26%)
Total Exports: 596.39 M / 228.33 B (0.26%)

1988
0573 (5.5%) 3330 (8.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.56 b / 2.79 T (0.2%)
Total Exports: 5.56 B / 2.79 T (0.2%)

0711 (39%)

3330 (15%)

3222 (6.3%)
0611 2634 (2.8%) 6673 (2.5%) 6812 (0.91%) 6612 2119 2631 (2.1%) 2483 0360 2120 6521 2671 6513

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3221 6673 (3.9%)

6612 0573 (8.9%) 2927 (6%) 0611 2631 0712 (1.2%) 8921 0721 5834 5913 6716 (3.3%) 6584

0360 6114

5833

0813

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 37.70 b / 15.56 T (0.24%) Total Exports: 37.70 B / 15.56 T (0.24%)
0711 (6.3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 5530 (1.2%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8921 5834 (1.2%) Polyvinyl chloride 0712 (0.64%) 5912 6552 (0.78%) 8423 8462 6428 (0.87%) Articles of paper pulp 6624 N.E.S. 7752 0620 (0.77%) Sugar confectionary 8931 (not chocolate) 0484 6123 8465 0111 (2.5%) Bovine meat 6114 (1.1%) Bovine & equine leather 5832 (1%) Polypropylene 5334

3330 (31%) Crude petroleum

2927 (3.6%) Flora

0573 (2.2%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

5541 5913

5514

4242 (1.1%)

3222 (15%) Other coal

9710 (3.4%) Gold, non-monetary

6716 (2.8%) Ferro-alloys 2890 2882 (0.96%) Other non-ferrous
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7499 6954 7711 (0.51%) 6252

6612

6415

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

140 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CoNGo RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.707 / (125/23) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.65% / (125/23)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3.2 k 2.5 k 1.9 k 1.2 k 640 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 141

POPULATION ≥ 3.6 M / (109/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 12 b / (75/4)

GDP ≥ USD 12 b / (109/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,261 / (84/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,181 / (49/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 98 % (5/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 96.97 M / 228.33 b (0.04%)
Total Exports: 96.97 M / 228.33 B (0.04%)

1988
6341 (7.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 959.93 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 959.93 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

6672 (22%)

2771 (5.1%)

2472 (30%)

3330 (71%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6672 (7.3%)

2472 (11%)

6821 (12%)

6861 (4.8%) 0612 (5.5%) 0711 (1.3%) 0615 0813 0611 (2%)

2483 (1.3%) 0721 (1.1%) 6822 2232 4242 2634 2119 (0.99%)

2877 (3%)

6341 (2.7%)

2479 (1.2%) 2483 (0.87%) 2911 (0.81%)

0611

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.54 b / 15.56 T (0.07%) Total Exports: 11.54 B / 15.56 T (0.07%)
2871 (3%) Copper

3330 (87%) Crude petroleum

6821 (2%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2879 (1.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals 2876 (1.1%) Tin

6672 (0.75%) 6899
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

142 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Costa RICa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.278 / (49/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.97% / (38/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.79 0.8 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 143

POPULATION ≥ 4.5 M / (99/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.8 b / (79/10)

GDP ≥ USD 30 b / (83/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,564 / (60/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,160 / (59/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 33 % (60/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (38%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 194.85 M / 228.33 b (0.09%)
Total Exports: 194.85 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

1988
0111 (7.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.55 b / 2.79 T (0.06%)
Total Exports: 1.55 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

0573 (31%)

0573 (35%)

2926 8423 (3.8%) (2.1%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8465 (3%) 8439 (2.5%)

0360 5417 5530 0914 (1.2%) 5629 0980 5621 0620 7781 0721 0611 2925 6749 (1.1%) 8472 (0.99%) 8471 6341 6998

2927 8462 8441 (1.8%) (1.8%) (1.6%) 8435 0111 (4.3%) 0711 (24%)

8434 8424 8431 8421 8463 0579 (3.2%) 0589 6421 0545 6428 8973 8972

0612 (4.6%)

0360 0341 (1.6%) (1.2%)

7731 7723 (0.79%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.76 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.76 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)
7721 (1.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 (1.3%) Tires & pneumatic for cars 0579 (7.6%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S. 8720 (7.1%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

7599 (12%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7764 (12%) Electronic microcircuits

6289

7758 8812

0980 (3.6%) Edible products N.E.S.

8931 (0.94%)

0583

8996 (3.1%) Orthopaedic appliances

6749

7131

0484 6421

5417 (3.7%) Medicaments

5334 5542 0819

5834

6252 0573 (8.1%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 4242 (1.6%) Palm oil 0711 (3.9%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0585 (1.5%) Fruit or vegetable juices

5629 8423

2927 (1.3%) Flora

7731 (1.9%) Electric 6732 (0.77%) wire 6842 (0.74%) 6428 (1.3%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S. 6996

0343 0371 0111 0223

8442 (0.83%) 8462 (0.63%) 6651 (0.73%)

2926 (0.96%) Live plants

0611

0548 (1.1%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

144 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Côte D’IvoIRe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.868 / (99/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.18% / (76/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.94

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1k 800 600 400 200 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 145

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (47/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.9 b / (77/5)

GDP ≥ USD 23 b / (91/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,137 / (105/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 479 / (97/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (41/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (32%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 506.69 M / 228.33 b (0.22%)
Total Exports: 506.69 M / 228.33 B (0.22%)

1988
2472 (28%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.37 b / 2.79 T (0.08%)
Total Exports: 2.37 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

0721 (25%)

0711 (21%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2483 (7.8%)

2472 (4.2%)

6341 (1.9%) 0371 (4.1%)
0721 (16%) 0573 (5.5%)

2481 2479

0579 (4.2%)

0723 (5.6%)
0723 (4.1%) 2483 (3.8%) 0589 (1.7%) 0579 0712 2877 6341

2320 (3.3%)

0573 (2.5%) 0342 4242 (1.1%) 4243 0722 4244 2631 (5.1%) 6672 (3%) 0730 0712 (2.4%) 6521 (0.98%) 6522

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.87 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.87 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)
3330 (21%) Crude petroleum 6612

0721 (24%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

9710

0723 (9.6%) Cocoa butter & paste

2320 (6.7%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0573 (1.6%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 4242 (1.5%) Palm oil

5530 (2%) Perfumery & cosmetics

5541 (1.2%) Soaps

0730 (2.2%) Chocolate

0980 (0.86%) 8931

0712 (0.97%) 0819 (1.5%) Animal feed and food waste 2483 (2.9%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 5629 6341 (1%) 2472 7921 (1.2%) 2479

0579

0483

7938 (1.3%)

0722 (0.83%)

4244

0371 (2.4%) Fish N.E.S.

0577 (2.4%) Edible nuts

2631 (1.1%) Raw cotton

0711 (1.8%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

1223 9510 (0.64%) 6954

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

146 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CRoatIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.989 / (26/7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.92% / (40/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

22% OF WT

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

-15

-10

-5

0

5 x 10
-3

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3.2 k 2.5 k 1.9 k 1.2 k 640 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 147

POPULATION ≥ 4.4 M / (101/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 14 b / (73/15)

GDP ≥ USD 69 b / (63/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 15,637 / (36/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,203 / (48/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (98/23)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1992
8424 (3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.29 b / 4.30 T (0.08%)
Total Exports: 3.29 B / 4.30 T (0.08%)

2001
5831 (2.4%) 5834 (1.6%) 5417 8922 0819 3345 5621

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.35 b / 5.90 T (0.07%)
Total Exports: 4.35 B / 5.90 T (0.07%)

8510 (4.8%)

8423 (2.4%) 8439 (2.3%)

8462 (1.6%) 8422 (1.3%)

7932 (10%)

7932 (18%)

8743 7162 2483 (3.2%) (0.97%) 7239 6782 7758

6842 (1.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8211 (1.9%)

5413 (2.4%)

8922 5542

8451 8429 8441 8435 6123 (2.9%) 8431 (2.4%) 8434 8459 6584 8997 8481 7731 6842 (1.6%) (1.5%) 8433 7721 (1.3%) 7162 8743 7758 6716 5833 (2%) 8942 7712

5413 5113 5411

2483 (4.4%)

6415 0980 (2%)

8211 (2.3%)

6421 8931 8219 (2%) 2472 6341 6997 6624 2512 6911 6342 8122 0484

5157 5629 (1.2%) 6612 3413 2882 6998 (1.4%) 3354 3232

8510 (3.1%) 8451 (2.6%)

8462

6651 8928 0111 0149 0341 0371 (0.91%) 0114 6114

8422 8424 (1.5%) 6123 (1.5%) 8439 8463

5417 (2.2%) 7731 8219 6911 2472 6341 (1.5%) 7641 7768 5831 (1.8%) 5621 6353 (1.3%) (1.1%) 6997 6624 5629 7711 (1.6%) 5113 6415 2512 3414 (1.9%) 6612 (2%) 1222 (2.2%) 0412 8431 8423 0612 3413 (1.4%) 8459 6998 2734 0341 6114 5833 8434 8481 (1.1%) 2111 0980 0484 6584 8432 0371 (1.7%) 8931 2820 8435 0149 6421 6635 8465

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 14.18 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 14.18 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)
7284 7239 7139 7491 7169 8743 (0.72%) 7212 7499 7919 6782 7162 7788 7712 (0.71%) (0.94%) Other 7768 (0.64%) electrical machinery & 7763 equipment 7723 (0.73%) N.E.S. 7149 6997 (0.82%) 6343 6341 8472 2472 2450 0980 (1.6%) Edible products N.E.S. 0730 6421 5833 6129 (0.81%) 0484 1110 8931 5831 (2.1%) Polyethylene 5621 (1.7%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 5629 (1.2%) 2882 (0.87%) 6998 6612 (1.6%) Cement 5417 (2.6%) Medicaments 5530 3414 (2.8%) petroleum gases

7932 (15%) Ships & boats

7711 (3.2%) Electrical transformers

8510 (1.5%) Footwear

7931 2483 (2.8%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

7915 8211 (2.1%) Chairs & seats

7119 8219 (1.2%) 6911 (1.1%) Furniture Iron/steel parts N.E.S. structures

8463

6123

8451 (1.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

0612 (1.6%) Refined sugar

1222 (0.92%)

0488 2820 (1.5%) Iron & steel waste 6651 (0.71%) 8928

6353 (0.93%) 6842 (2.3%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7731 (1.3%) Electric wire

6624

3510 (0.91%)

0341 (0.81%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding 0223 fillets

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

148 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CUba
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.426 / (84/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.22% / (74/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.94 0.945 0.95 0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.935

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
260 208 156 104 52 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 149

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (65/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.9 b / (107/19)

GDP ≥ USD 63 b / (64/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,596 / (63/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 261 / (109/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 4.7 % (128/21)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0612 (28%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 157.55 M / 228.33 b (0.07%)
Total Exports: 157.55 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

1988
2872 (8.2%) 2871

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.29 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 1.29 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

0611 (30%)

0611 (50%)

0612 (5.6%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0360 (10%)

0372 (2.5%)

6811 5225 1221 (4.3%) 5121 (2.3%)

0711 (3.7%) 2872 (4.8%) 0615 2890 2871 (1.4%) (0.87%) 2879 0571 (1.8%) 2882 1221 (3.8%) 2820 (2.3%)

0615 (11%)

0711 (4.3%)

0360 (3.1%)

9610 (2.1%)

0572 (1.9%) 1211 (2.4%)

0111 (2.1%) 6581

0585

7842 (1.1%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.92 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.92 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
1221 (12%) Cigars 0611 (20%) Raw sugar beet & cane

2872 (35%) Nickel

1124 (7%) Alcoholic beverages

0585 6724 (2.2%) Iron/steel 7272 (1.1%) Food bars processing 2882 (1.8%) machinery & Other parts N.E.S. non-ferrous base 7782 metals (0.88%) 6725 Incandescent &

1211 0360 (4.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

1222 5416 (2.4%) Glycosides & vaccines

2879 (4.7%) Other non-ferrous base metals

6612 (1.8%) Cement

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

150 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

CzeCh RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.628 / (8/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.11% / (26/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.06

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

-0.055

-0.05

-0.045

-0.04

-0.035

-0.03

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 151

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (68/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 146 b / (29/3)

GDP ≥ USD 216 b / (39/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 20,729 / (30/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,006 / (18/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 68 % (15/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
6731 (1.9%) 7721 (1.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 14.34 b / 4.30 T (0.33%)
Total Exports: 14.34 B / 4.30 T (0.33%)

2001
8439 6123 6589 8429 8471 8435 6521 6544 3232 (1.2%) 3223 (1.1%) 5111 5311 5145 5112 2671 5331 8939 5834 (1.1%) 5831 5542 5621 6573 6658 (1.3%) 5833 6651 2820 8972

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 33.38 b / 5.90 T (0.57%)
Total Exports: 33.38 B / 5.90 T (0.57%)

7821 (1.2%)

7162 7361 6744 (0.91%) (1.5%)

6727 6725 8510 (1.6%) 6746 6712 6745 6770 6259 6584 8431 6522 (1.2%) 3222 (2.9%)

7810 (11%)

7721 (2.7%)

7162 7919 7361 7731 (2.4%) 7493 7139 6647 6954 6251 7492 8211 (2.2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7492 6991 7919 6954

7369 7493 7244 6732 (2.6%) 2482 (1.7%)

7449 7224 6782 6733 (0.94%) 7758 8121 7283 7264 6785 8947 8124 7781 8219 2471

8219 (1.1%) 6732 6842

6353 3510 6652 2482 2471 6633 6664

7783 (1.3%)

6991 (1%) 7499

6782 6731 7849 (7.3%) 7239

6252 8981 6911 (1.1%) 6652 (1.4%) 6997

7842 7169 7416 6289 7452 7244 7442 6940 7788 7522 (1.4%) 7421 (1.2%)

6911 6997 6428 7414 (1.3%) (1.2%) 7243 6572 6359 6624 7732 7413 8939 5542 6794 (1.3%) 5111 6210 5831 6522 6584 6123 8931

6415

7731 8211 6353 6624 6842 6924 6973 6921 (1.5%) (1.5%) (1.4%) 6633 6351

6415 2518

0224 0548 (0.89%) 2882 6794 6612 0482 (0.89%) 0011 1123 6891 5121

7611 (2.1%) 7781 (1.7%)

7369 8121 7641 7415 6770 (1.1%) 6252 6744 6733 8124 8947

3222 (1%) 3232

8928 6658

0224 1222

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 146.09 b / 15.56 T (0.94%) Total Exports: 146.09 B / 15.56 T (0.94%)
7849 (8.3%) Other vehicles parts 7611 (3.2%) Color T.V. 7522 7731 (2.3%) Electric wire 8211 (1.5%) Chairs & seats 3510 (1.2%)

7810 (9.4%) Cars

6911 (1.2%) 7523 (2.9%) CPUs 6997 (1.1%) 6732 7414

7525 (1.8%) Control & peripheral hardware 7721 (2.9%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7493 6782 7831 7842 7431 7415 (1.3%) 7919 7783 (1.1%) Auto 7162 (1.1%) AC parts electric motors & generators 7284 (1.1%) 7139 6251 8121 7361 6289 7416 7449 7436 6647 6940 7763 6770 7784 7499 6954 6793 6252 6259 6731 7161 7421 (0.95%) 7638

8942 (1.3%) Toys 6353 7643 (1.1%) Television & radio transmitters 7621 7781 8219 7861 6359 8939 (1.3%) 5831 (0.63%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 6210 5542 6794 (0.59%) 6998 3222 (0.96%) Other coal 2882

7788 (0.9%)

7518 7648 8928 2820

7492

6991

7239

6744 6733 6658 5833

6421 1222 0223

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

152 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

DeNMaRK
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.267 / (17/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.63% / (106/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
21 k 16.8 k 12.6 k 8.4 k 4.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 153

POPULATION ≥ 5.5 M / (92/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 116 b / (33/13)

GDP ≥ USD 341 b / (27/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 62,036 / (4/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 21,115 / (11/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 34 % (58/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.56 b / 228.33 b (1.12%)
Total Exports: 2.56 B / 228.33 B (1.12%)

1988
7411 (2.9%) 7283 7212 7452

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 28.69 b / 2.79 T (1.03%)
Total Exports: 28.69 B / 2.79 T (1.03%)

0149 (8.1%)

0113 (2.4%) 0011 (1.9%)

0121 (14%)

0113 (6.3%)

0344 (2%) 0341 (1.6%)

7499 (2%) 0111 (4.5%) 0114 (1.3%) 0116 7932 (4.3%) 0980 0484 0620 0814 1123 (1.8%) 5989 (1.4%) 5169 2925 (1.1%) 5411 8996 0350 8745 (1%) 8720 0813 5417 5335 6424 2919 (1.1%) (1.9%) 5542 0819 2929 2111 5530 5413

7211

8121

7271 6991 8942 7781

0149 (2.6%)

0111 (2%)

0013 0142 0913 0230 (5.4%) 0240 (3.1%)

0240 (2.5%)

2926 2927 0430 0811 1222

8124 8731 (1.2%) 6341 2483 8472 (1.9%)

7492 7452 7283 (1.7%) 7442 7416 (0.95%) 7272 7212 7431 6991 7449 7188

7429

0224 (2.5%)

2120 (2.5%)

6998 2785

8928

0814 5169 8748 5311 5983 8219 (3.1%) 6353 (0.91%) (1.2%) 5839 7741 0342 7752 8720 5415 (0.93%) 0372 5411 0343 6912 6997 5417 8939 (1.7%) 5629 8211 2120 0224 0230 (2.8%) 6428 8212 (2%) 7414 5334 5542 6911 5911 5922 0451 8921 7422 8942 7643 8813 0121 (1.7%) 0980 0430 0412 8451 (1.5%) (1.2%) 2226 8459 8124 8983 2926 2925 6595 8931 4312 (1.3%) 7932 (3.3%) (0.94%) 8928 0484 6421 2929 0542 2882 0546 0612 1123

0360 (1.1%) 0350 0371

2008
7492 (1.8%) Valves

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 116.11 b / 15.56 T (0.75%) Total Exports: 116.11 B / 15.56 T (0.75%)
7442 7272 7283 7932 (1.7%) Ships 0113 (4.8%) Swine meat & boats 0013 0149 8219 (2.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6911 (1.9%) Iron/steel structures

7161 (1.7%) 7452 DC motors & generators

7429 7422 (0.85%) 7162 (1.6%) 7493 7169 (1.3%) Parts of rotating 7449 electric plants N.E.S. 7212

8743 7712 0240 (1.9%) Cheese & curd 0341

0111 0114

0116

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6649 (1.5%) Glass N.E.S.

0360 (0.72%) 0371

3510 (1.1%) Electric 8211 current (0.58%) 7861 6353 (1.1%) (0.54%) Builders` carpentry 6428 & joinery 6842 7414 6912 6924

8212 (0.54%) 6997 (0.52%) 6973

7188 (1.4%) Engines & motors

7642 6991 6744 (1%)

2120 (1.2%) 0224 5922 0223 0980 (1.9%) Edible products N.E.S.

0372 0343 0350 8931 8510 8439

7416 5417 (7.3%) Medicaments 5416 (1.8%) Glycosides & vaccines

7711 8996 (1.5%) Orthopaedic appliances 5169 (1.2%)

8451

2926 (0.65%) 2925

0488

8939 (1.5%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

0819

5542 5334

8720 (1.2%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5145

8744

0914

8459 (0.56%) 8462

2820 (1.1%) 8928

2882

5311 7741 1123

8423

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

154 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

DoMINICaN RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.064 / (64/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.78% / (45/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
900 720 540 360 180 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 155

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (71/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.8 b / (92/15)

GDP ≥ USD 46 b / (75/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,602 / (72/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 581 / (92/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 13 % (118/19)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0612 (57%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 176.31 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 176.31 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
0721 (9.1%) 2873 (7.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.80 b / 2.79 T (0.06%)
Total Exports: 1.80 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

0711 (12%)

8423 (8.2%)

8462 (3.1%)

8465 (2.5%)

8463 (2%) 8435 (1.6%)

6716 (14%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7721 (3.3%)

6123 (4.8%)

8439 (3.8%)

8441 (1.6%) 8434

8422 8459 8432 8481 9710 (5.8%) 0565 0579 1221 (1.4%) 0545 0546 0111 (2.3%) 8720 (1.9%) 6428

0611 (3.2%) 0615 (3%) 0813

0565 (1.1%)

0619

0612 (5.5%)

0545 0111 (2.4%)

8310 8443 8442 8431 8424 8471 8433 (1.1%) 8451 8452 0711 (4.6%) 0721 (4.2%) 1211 (2.4%)

8973 (4.8%)

0615

0548

0611

0577

6831

6811

6812

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.78 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 5.78 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
7721 (5.5%) Switchboards, 8720 (9.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S. relays & fuses 7741 1221 (5.3%) Cigars 1124 (1.7%) Alcoholic beverages

6716 (8.6%) Ferro-alloys

1123 7649 (2.3%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 7788 (1.9%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S. 7712 (1.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S. 7599 (1%) Parts 7711 (1.1%) of cash registers & calculating machines 8451 (1.7%) 8429 (1.2%) 6521 (4.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8465 (1.9%) Corsets 8463 (0.79%) 8441 8423 (1.8%) Men's trousers 8442 (1.7%) Men's underwear 8464 8459 (0.74%) 8439 Other men outerwear 8462 (0.86%) Unbleached cotton woven fabrics 0980 (1.3%) 5530 (0.7%) 8939 (0.7%) 0573 (1.4%) 5629 (0.8%) Fertilizers 0579 (0.65%) 0545 (0.57%) 6732 (3%) Iron/steel rods 6428 (2.1%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S. 6421 0484

8931 (1%)

8510 (2.8%) Footwear

0721 (2%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

8973 (6.5%) Precious jewellery

0611 (1.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane 1212 (1.2%) 0460 Wholly or partly stripped tobacco 1222 1213 2882 0711 8933 (1.6%) 6612 (1.3%) 2820 (1.3%) Iron & steel waste 6118

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

156 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

eCUaDoR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.619 / (93/18) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.12% / (80/17)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 157

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (59/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 b / (70/9)

GDP ≥ USD 55 b / (68/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,056 / (76/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,372 / (72/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 34 % (59/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 287.52 M / 228.33 b (0.13%)
Total Exports: 287.52 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

1988
0711 (14%) 0360

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.02 b / 2.79 T (0.11%)
Total Exports: 3.02 B / 2.79 T (0.11%)

0573 (59%)

0721 (15%)

3330 (43%)

0573 (20%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0721 (3.2%)

0711 (5.9%)

0011 2483

0723 (1.5%) 0360 (16%) 2927 0814 (2.7%) 2483 6342

0612 (3.4%)

6576 2871 0579

0371 0342 0341

0730 0712

0723

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 18.52 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 18.52 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)
0573 (9.9%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 2927 (3.4%) Flora

3330 (64%) Crude petroleum

0721 (1.2%) 4242 (1.1%) Palm oil 0371 (4.9%) Fish N.E.S. 0980 0579

7821 (1.3%) Trucks & vans 0360 (4.1%) Fresh, chilled, 0814 frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0342 0343 0344 0341
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6973

3352 (0.98%)

0712

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

158 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

eGYPt
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.021 / (63/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.37% / (18/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
320 256 192 128 64 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 159

POPULATION ≥ 82 M / (15/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 26 b / (62/10)

GDP ≥ USD 163 b / (50/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,997 / (92/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 323 / (104/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (112/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (41%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 696.77 M / 228.33 b (0.31%)
Total Exports: 696.77 M / 228.33 B (0.31%)

1988
6513 (11%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.41 b / 2.79 T (0.12%)
Total Exports: 3.41 B / 2.79 T (0.12%)

0422 (14%)

3330 (65%)

6841 2631 (9.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6522 (3.5%)

6521 (1.9%)

0541 (1.2%)

0615

0752 6513 (5.9%)
3330 (7.6%) 0545 (2.4%)

0571 1222 5513 6521 8462

0421 (3.2%)

2634 (0.88%) 2221 (0.75%) 6612

6516
1124 2713 5542 9610

0612

0541

0571

0813

0545 (0.93%) 0561 6731 0546

6842 8921 0341

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 26.35 b / 15.56 T (0.17%) Total Exports: 26.35 B / 15.56 T (0.17%)
2731 (1.3%) Building stone 6998 (1%) 5221 (1.6%) Chemical elements 5622 2713 (0.73%) 5232 5621 (2.5%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 6612 (0.94%) 5225 3232 (0.74%) 5831 (1.8%) Polyethylene 5542 3351 (0.86%) (0.81%) Organic surface-active 8939 agents N.E.S. 6727 (4.1%) Iron/steel coils

3413 (23%) liquified hydrocarbons

6841

2789

6822 (3.7%) Worked copper & copper alloys

6749 (0.74%) 6733 (0.63%)

7831 0571 (2.3%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines 0575 8462 (1.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 6584 (1.5%) Linens & furnishing textile articles 8459

6731 0545 (1.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables 2711 0980 0620 0546 (0.77%) 0579 (0.67%) 0585 6421 0561

7731 (3.3%) Electric wire

6624 (1.3%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks 8932 (0.83%) 7414 6732

6997 (1.3%) Articles of iron or steel N.E.S. 6911 8122 6618

6428

5981 (3.9%) Woods & resin chemical 0541 products (0.96%)

0542 8439

6842 (2.1%) 8219 Worked aluminium (1.4%) & aluminium alloys

2631 (1.1%) 0422 (1%) Semi or wholly milled rice

6592 (0.96%)

6513 0240 (1.8%) Cheese (0.78%) & curd Cotton yarn

6522 (0.88%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

160 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

el salvaDoR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.026 / (60/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.06% / (31/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
740 592 444 296 148 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 161

POPULATION ≥ 6.1 M / (89/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.6 b / (101/18)

GDP ≥ USD 22 b / (94/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,604 / (81/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 742 / (85/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (97/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (53%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 225.20 M / 228.33 b (0.1%)
Total Exports: 225.20 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

1988
8510 (2.2%) 8472 6522 (2.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 588.74 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 588.74 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2631 (8%)

0711 (72%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8435 (1.6%) 8439 (1.5%)

8433 6584 (1.2%) 8434 8465

6584 6581 5417 5530

6513 (1.8%)

6521 6549

6513 (2.2%) 0360 (5%)

5541 5629 (1.1%) 5335 0819 0712 7731 6842 0360 (1.2%) (2.1%) 0422 (1.5%) 6996 6732 4233 2632 6421 (1.7%) 0813 0611 0615 (0.91%) 0914 8928 6951 (0.88%) 7782 6612

7788 (4.8%)

6421 (0.9%) 0579 0712

0612

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.55 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.55 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
8931 (2.2%) Closable plastic packing 0980 (1.6%) 5121 (4.8%) Acyclic 0711 (6.3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee alcohols & substitutes derivatives

8462 (23%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

1110 (1.7%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 6421 (1.5%) Paper packing containers 0484 (1.4%) Bakery 0585 (0.81%)

0470 (0.92%)

0615

0914

0611 (1.9%) 8939 (1.4%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5542 (1.1%) 6732 (1.3%) Iron/steel rods 7731 8219

8459 (4.3%) Other knitted outerwear

8463 (4.2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8441 (1.1%) Men's undershirt 8465 (1.1%)

6584 (1%) Linens & furnishing textile articles 6552 (0.83%)

5417 (2.7%) Medicaments

6424 (2.4%) Cut to size paper N.E.S.

6842 (0.88%) 5334 0371 (2.6%) Fish N.E.S.

3510 6428 8928

8439 (0.76%) 8451 (3.7%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8471 7788 (3.6%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

8510 (0.76%) 8433 8442 2690

6746 (1.5%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets 6744

2882 2789

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

162 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

estoNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.791 / (32/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.65% / (52/20)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
10 k 8k 6k 4k 2k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 163

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (125/27) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 14 b / (74/16)

GDP ≥ USD 24 b / (90/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 17,541 / (35/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 10,293 / (24/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 59 % (22/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2471 (5.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 852.72 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 852.72 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

2001
2890 (1.6%) 7599 (3.5%) 8947 (1.2%) 5225 6612 (1.3%) 6716 7712 6647

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.50 b / 5.90 T (0.07%)
Total Exports: 4.05 B / 5.90 T (0.07%)

8219 (2.5%) 6342 (1.7%)

7731 (1.7%) 8211 (1.5%)

2882 (2.7%)

7643 (15%)

7649 (11%)

8749 6584 8439 8510 7449 (1.2%) 8423 8429 8431 6749 5224 8462 8441 6724 6521 6544 6522

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0371 (1.9%) 0342 0350 0240 0230

2482 (4.6%)

2472 (2.7%)

6841 2460 (1.5%) 2483 7861 6521 (2.4%) 0341 (1.1%) 0342 6522 (1.3%) 6513 3345 (1.5%) 5249 (1.1%)

6831 6672 3222

0343 8421 0344 6589 0224 (1.2%)

8439 (3.3%)

6353 8212 6911 (0.96%) 6351 8431 8423 8435 (1.5%) (1.2%) 8462 8459 8424 6123 8434 8433 6354 8451 8441 6589 8452 8484

6861 6899 6712 6744 6863 0371 0224 (2.4%) 2820 (3.2%)

6130 0113 2820 3224 (1.4%) 6423 2882 6998 8931 1110 5225 6612

2482 (4.3%)

8219 (3.4%) 7731 (2.1%) 2471 (2%)

6584 (2.7%) 8429 (2%) 8510 (1.6%)

2111 5621 (2.4%)

3224 (2.2%)

6912 (1.3%) 2483 (0.81%) 2460 8211 (0.8%) 6359 6997 7861 6633

5334 8939 5335 0721 (2.2%) 2631 5621 5629

6353 (2.7%)
5629 0586 (1.2%) 0488

6911 (2.6%)

8212 2472 6343 (1.4%) 6342

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 13.79 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 13.79 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)
6251 (1.5%) Tires & pneumatic for cars 7449 (1%) 7239 7442 (0.92%) 7649 (5.3%) Parts of telecom & Lifting & sound recording equipment loading machinery 7169 (0.88%) Parts of rotating electric 7234 plants N.E.S. 6647 6749 (2.8%) Other worked iron/steel sheets 7712 (1.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S. 8947 8124 (0.53%) 6252 (0.61%) 6584 7416 8459 8219 (1.9%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 8212 (1.8%) Medical & dental furniture 3510 (1.6%) Electric current 8211 (1.5%) 6413 2460 (0.97%) 2472 Pulpwood 6343 7861 6633 6997 6359 2483 2471 6415 2519 0980 8931 2512 0240 0371 (0.52%) 0342 6130 0113 1124 (1.8%) Alcoholic beverages 6612 (0.72%) 5225 0360 0344 6841 5335 (1.2%) Glazes, driers, putty 8939 (1.2%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 8922 5621 (1.2%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 5137 (0.79%) 2820 (3.2%) Iron & steel waste

7810 (5.7%) Cars

7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7868 7162 (2.1%) AC electric motors & 7441 generators

5334 (0.84%) Varnishes & lacquers 8510 8439

8462 8429

8431

3224 (0.77%) 8928 6423 2882 6998 6851 5825

6353 (4.5%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

7731 (3.6%) Electric wire

6911 (2.7%) Iron/steel structures

2482 (2.1%) Worked wood of coniferous

0721 (1%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 0430

0711

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

164 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ethIoPIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.892 / (104/13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.53% / (62/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.88 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
33 26.4 19.8 13.2 6.6 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 165

POPULATION ≥ 81 M / (16/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 b / (120/24)

GDP ≥ USD 26 b / (88/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 321 / (126/24)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 20 / (128/26) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 6.3 % (127/26)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (61%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 106.21 M / 228.33 b (0.05%)
Total Exports: 106.21 M / 228.33 B (0.05%)

1988
0542 (8%) 0813 2116 (3.1%) (2.5%) 2117 (2.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 355.91 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 355.91 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (65%)

2925 2117 (9.1%)

2114 (2%) 2111 (1.3%) 2234 0573 0149 (1.7%) (1.5%) 4314 2223 2221 0545 (1.9%) 2783 (1.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6116 (5.4%)
2919 0012 2120 (1.2%)

2927

6114 2116 (1.4%) (1.4%) 6113 2919 2114

4314
9610 (4.4%)

2922

6115 0012 (3.7%)

2632 8741 0813 (1.1%) 7148 2238

5514 8462 (0.94%) 0545 5322 (0.99%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.64 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.64 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
2225 (13%) Sesame seeds 2117 (1.9%) 6115 (1.8%) 0112 (1.8%) Sheep Raw sheep skin Sheep & lamb & goat meat with wool leather

0711 (36%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

6116 (1.7%) Leather of other hides or skins

0011 (1.7%) Live bovines

0545 (6.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

2634 2927 (6.7%) Flora

2922 2926 (1.2%) 9710 (5.1%) Gold, non-monetary 0611 (0.86%) 7924 (1.8%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

0542 (7.4%) Dried or shelled legumes

2929 (2%) Vegetable origin materials 2238 (2.6%) Oil seeds & fruits N.E.S.

7234 9410 6123

0752 (0.67%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

166 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

fINlaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.715 / (6/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (88/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8

0 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
18 k 14.4 k 10.8 k 7.2 k 3.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 167

POPULATION ≥ 5.3 M / (94/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 97 b / (36/14)

GDP ≥ USD 271 b / (33/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 50,905 / (10/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 18,275 / (14/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 36 % (55/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6411 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.79 b / 228.33 b (0.78%)
Total Exports: 1.79 B / 228.33 B (0.78%)

1988
7932 (7.4%) 6712 (2%) 6822 5224 (1.2%) 7411 (1.6%) 7281 6419 (4.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 23.87 b / 2.79 T (0.85%)
Total Exports: 23.87 B / 2.79 T (0.85%)

2517 (10%)

2482 (13%)

6415 (10%)

2517 (5.3%)

6418 (4.8%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7259 (1.4%) 7442 (1.2%)

6746 6822 6745 6783 (1.4%) 6727 6716 6744 7932 (3.3%) 6749 7931 (1.5%)

6411 (5%) 6412 (9.9%) 6413 (3%) 2516

7251 7234 7441 7449 7492 7239 7416 6572

6413 (7.1%)

6415 (5.9%)

2120 (3.4%)

7224 7162 7283

7611

7938 7915 (0.85%) 7641 7643 7712

2518 (5.6%) 6412 (6.5%) 2516 (2.6%) 2512 5981 6416 (1.1%) 7731 2479 6911 2483

0240 0230 2671 6421 (1.8%) 6831 2875 5331

2482 (6%)

6342 (2%)

7731 8219 6911 6417

5331 (1.4%) 2671 6424 8922 5831 3352

6428 6353

6861 6821 8431 (0.79%) 8459 6831 6421 2120 (1.5%) 8931

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 97.08 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 97.08 B / 15.56 T (0.62%)
7162 (2.2%) AC electric motors & generators 7821 (1.2%) 7493 7449 (0.86%) 7259 7416 7219 6251 6412 (3.6%) Printing & writing paper in rolls or seets 2482 (2.7%) Worked wood of coniferous 6342

6418 (3.2%) Rolls/sheets of coated paper

7169 (1.1%)

7284 (2.2%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7442 (2%) Lifting & loading machinery

7234 (1.7%) Construction & mining machinery

7283 (1.2%) Mineral working machinery & parts N.E.S. 7643 (15%) Television & radio transmitters

7239 (0.92%) Bulldozers, angledozers & 7492 (0.91%) levellers parts N.E.S. 7251 (0.91%)

7224 (0.92%) Wheeled tractors 7139

7138 7441 6647 7188

6415 (3%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets

6353 (1%)

7731

2517 (2.2%) Chemical 6413 wood pulp, soda or (0.79%) sulphate 6749 (1.1%) 6822 Other (0.96%) worked iron/steel sheets 6783 (0.85%) 6745

6428 3510

7649 (2.3%) 6746 (2.8%) Iron/steel Parts of telecom <3mm tick sheets & sound recording equipment 6727 (1.7%) Iron/steel coils

8720 (0.97%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

5331 7741

5123 8744

6899 (0.82%) 6861 (0.81%) 6821 (1.1%)

6831 (1.3%) Unwrought nickel & nickel alloys

6744 (0.78%) 7712 (1.9%) Parts of electric power machinery 7932 (2.9%) Ships & boats 7711 N.E.S.

5629 5231

5831 2120 (0.64%) 8928 (0.52%)

8124
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

168 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

fRaNCe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.473 / (11/7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.09% / (82/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
9.6 k 7.6 k 5.7 k 3.8 k 1.9 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 169

POPULATION ≥ 62 M / (20/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 596 b / (5/2)

GDP ≥ USD 2.9 T / (5/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 44,471 / (16/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,570 / (25/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (94/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 12.71 b / 228.33 b (5.57%)
Total Exports: 12.71 B / 228.33 B (5.57%)

1988
6512 (1.6%) 6118 6113 6652 8842 0430 (2.5%) 0440 5513 (1.4%) 0460 0574

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 164.72 b / 2.79 T (5.89%)
Total Exports: 164.72 B / 2.79 T (5.89%)

7810 (8.3%)

7842 (3.8%)

6746 (2.4%) 6747

6733 0224 0240 0111 (1.4%) (1.4%) 6749 6727 0230 (0.87%) 6732 (1.2%) 6842 6911 0011 5922 (1%)

7810 (8.4%)

7721 (1.7%)

6783 6716 6725 7244 7411 6731 (1.6%) (1.6%) (1.3%) 7499 5989 (1.3%) 5148 2331 8822 5137 3345 5417 (1.8%) 5530 7518 6782 (1.4%) 7788

6973 8960 6341 (1.4%) 6953 8472 (1.4%) 6560 6522 (0.83%) 6513

6251 7234 5989 (0.85%) 8822 7492 6782 2331 7132 7139 6731 5112 8720 7491 7783 7758 7499 7162 7442 7416 7449 6289 8121

5839 5137 5982

5530 (1.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5417 (1.7%)

5311 5145 8939 8742 5146 0819 5831 5834 5832 2224 0430 2226 0612 0011

6842 6732 8211 (0.97%) 6911 7414 3510 6428 6997 8219 8960 (1.5%) 6652 0240 6412 6415 6512 2111 5241 (0.97%) 2882

8947 7131 (1.2%) 8731 7928 6770

1121 (2.9%)

0482 0541 8510 6841 5225 (1.2%) (1.2%) 2741 2820 (1.1%) 2665

7849 (4.9%)

0412 (2.1%) 6252 7523 0440 1121 (3%)

7924 (4%)

6746 6822

8921 0819 5232 8922 6573 5623 5335 6424

0565 0579 1124 (1.8%)

0460 0111 0482 0574 0114 1124 8439 8310 5833 8928

7929 7149 7148 7923

6727 6783

0980

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 595.52 b / 15.56 T (3.83%) Total Exports: 595.52 B / 15.56 T (3.83%)
7132 (1.3%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles 7492 (0.72%) 7783 7821 (1.2%) 7239 7442 7162 5417 (6.2%) Medicaments 5989 (1.1%) 5156 5839 (0.5%) 5982 7139 (0.56%) 6251 (0.56%) 7234 (0.54%) 7491 5530 (3.1%) Perfumery & 8939 (0.84%) cosmetics 5542 8741 7493 5831 (0.73%) 3510 (1.1%) Electric current 6842 (0.66%) 6732 8851 6652 0412 (1.1%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0440 0612 0488 6749 7929 (1.4%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7518 7523 5241 (0.98%) 6745 1121 (2.2%) Wine 0980 8931 8310 (0.87%) 2820 (0.73%) 5834 5832 0430 0240 5913 5912 0819 8996 5416 8720 7742 5514

7810 (6.1%) Cars

7832 (0.69%) 7431

7849 (4.3%) Other vehicles parts

7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7924 (5.9%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

8743 7224

6782 7758 6822 (0.67%) 6746

0224 0011 0111 0113

7149 (1.5%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

0484 7923 7148 (0.78%) 0730 Aircrafts of 7144 7921 between 2 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

170 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GaboN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.364 / (120/19) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.99% / (121/22)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.982

0.984

0.986

0.988

0.99

0.992

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
5.4 k 4.3 k 3.2 k 2.1 k 1k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 171

POPULATION ≥ 1.4 M / (124/25) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.8 b / (84/7)

GDP ≥ USD 15 b / (100/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,037 / (46/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,379 / (38/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (26/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 157.67 M / 228.33 b (0.07%)
Total Exports: 157.67 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.27 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 1.27 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

3330 (29%)

2472 (40%)

3330 (60%)

2877 (13%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2472 (15%)

2877 (20%)

2860 (5.7%)

5241 (6.4%) 6342 (1.8%)
2481 0721 6341 6716 2483

2479 (1.4%) 0612 0721

0360 (1.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.79 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.79 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
2877 (18%) Manganese 2472 (8.9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

3330 (68%) Crude petroleum

6341 (1.7%) NULL

2483 (1.4%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 2320
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6342

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

172 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GeoRGIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.263 / (70/22) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.77% / (46/17)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
350 280 210 140 70 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 173

POPULATION ≥ 4.3 M / (103/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 b / (123/25)

GDP ≥ USD 13 b / (108/23) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,919 / (85/23)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 355 / (102/24) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (122/26)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
6716 (32%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 44.63 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)
Total Exports: 44.63 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

2001
3330 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 348.45 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 348.45 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

2820 (20%)

7923 (9.9%)

6716 (6.1%)

1121 (11%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2820 (12%)

2871 (3.3%) 6725 (6.7%) 6712 (3%) 6744 (1.3%)

2882 6841 (1.2%) (1.1%) 6831 (1.4%)

2882 (8%)

7452 7921 7239 7272 (2.5%) 6782 7911 7126 7919 9710 (4.4%) 2890 (3.2%)

7441

1110 (5.3%)

1124 0577 (3.4%)

0741 (2%)

5121 5111 (1.6%)

5138 3510 (4.3%) 5249 2483 2472

5621 (3.5%)

5156 (1.2%)

2925 (4.1%)

6732 (1%)

2871 (3.3%) 6841 8974

6782

7528

7923

5621 (1.7%) 2877 (1.6%) 0612 0460 0571 1223 5530 5232 0752 0412

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.53 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.53 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1121 (3%) Wine 0980 2820 (9.4%) Iron & steel waste

6716 (20%) Ferro-alloys

7810 (8.3%) Cars

0585 1110 (2.9%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S.

7911 (2.3%) Electric trains

7239

7919

1124 (4.3%) Alcoholic beverages

6782 9710 (7.4%) Gold, non-monetary 6612 (5.9%) Cement 2871 (8.7%) Copper 5621 (7.8%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 0577 (2.3%) Edible nuts 0612 0813

2882 (3.4%) Other non-ferrous base metals 5530 (0.7%)
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

3510 (1.2%) Electric current 5249 (0.49%) 6732 (0.69%)

2483 (1.1%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

174 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GeRMaNY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.985 / (2/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.34% / (67/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54

0 -0.105 -0.1 -0.095 -0.09 -0.085 -0.08 -0.075 -0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
18 k 14.4 k 10.8 k 7.2 k 3.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 175

POPULATION ≥ 82 M / (14/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 T / (1/1)

GDP ≥ USD 3.6 T / (4/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 44,264 / (17/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 17,903 / (15/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (45/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
7810 (15%)

EXPORT TREEMAP*

TOTAL EXPORTS: 24.78 b / 228.33 b (10.85%)
Total Exports: 24.78 B / 228.33 B (10.85%)

1988
5148 5417 (1.7%) 5542 6419 6424 5530 5621 5623 6210 5335

EXPORT TREEMAP*

TOTAL EXPORTS: 113.86 b / 2.79 T (11.16%)
Total Exports: 311.86 B / 2.79 T (11.16%)

7244 (3.5%)

7821 (2.3%)

7411 5989 (1.6%) (1.9%) 8745 5155 (1.1%) 7243 6940 5137 6731 8822

7810 (13%)

7821 (1.5%) 7139 7492 7416 6418 7162 7284 (2.2%) 7428 7499 7758 7721 (1.8%) 7247 6940 7611

7499 (3%) 7452 7281 6782 6991 (1.3%) (1.3%) 7491 7842 (4.1%) 7788 (1.3%) 7511 8852 7512 7518 8124 7212 (1.1%) 7783 7126 7784 7919

8720 5411

6573 7742 2671 5232 5331 5629

7283 7371 (0.89%) 8942 6746 6733 6783 6725 8811 (1.4%) 6727 6749 5224 6822 6712

8731 (1.2%) 6770 7782

6732 6842 2665 8928 (1.3%) 2820 7731 6911 6973 3232 6998 6812 (1.5%) 6953 5121 (1.2%) 6960 6517

7849 (4.7%)

7452 7264 7244 7493 (1.2%) 7442 6782 6991 7132 7361 7491 7234 7822 7783 7449 7369 7436 7441 7362 7784 7367 6954 7243 8749 7372 8743 7832 7831 7252 7281 7224

5989 (1.4%) 5839 5148 5156 5836 5137

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5311 8742

8748 5417 (1.1%) 5542 5334 5530 5834 5831

8939 (1.1%)

6842 8219 8211 8928 6428 2820 6514

0224 0223 5922

6746 6822

8124

7782

6415 6412

6953

8931 6421

5121

8983

* values for The Federal Republic of Germany

* values for The Federal Republic of Germany

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.47 T / 15.56 T (9.45%)
7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans 7139 (1.3%) Piston engines parts N.E.S.

Total Exports: 1.47 T / 15.56 T (9.45%)
7492 (1%) 7132 7442 (0.79%) 7832 (0.75%) 8743 6991 7234 7162 5989 (1.5%) Chemical products 5416 (1.1%) 5156 (0.84%) 8742

7810 (13%) Cars

7452 (1.2%) Non-electrical machines parts N.E.S. 7822 7491 7849 (4.3%) Other vehicles parts 7721 (2.6%) Switchboards, 7431 relays & fuses 7361 7283 7284 (2%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7788 (0.78%) 7763 (0.75%) 7712 8124

7493 (1.2%) Mechanical tools for building 6954 6940 7264 7499 7212 7783 7441

7416 7161 7281 6289 7188

7436

7742 5839 (0.96%) 8720 Other (0.87%) 8744 polymerization Medical & instruments 5417 (4.5%) Medicaments 8939 (1.1%) copolymarization N.E.S. Miscellaneous products articles of plastic 5334 5542 5414 6842 (0.97%) 6911 3510 2820 5823

5530

5831

6210

8928

8931 0484 6421

0980 0730

8219 7861 7929 6822 (0.99%) Worked copper & 6746 copper alloys 6783 6733 6415 6997

6782

7758

7924 (1.9%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

0240

2882

7421

0113

1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

176 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GhaNa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.868 / (100/12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.16% / (78/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
270 216 162 108 54 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 177

POPULATION ≥ 23 M / (42/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.8 b / (103/13)

GDP ≥ USD 29 b / (84/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,222 / (101/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 164 / (115/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 13 % (117/24)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0721 (52%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 367.72 M / 228.33 b (0,16%)
Total Exports: 367.72 M / 228.33 B (0.16%)

1988
6841 (16%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 910.85 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 910.85 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0721 (35%)

6841 (30%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6672 (3.7%)

2771 (1.6%)
2877 (4%) 6672 (3.1%) 2771

2877 (1.6%) 2873

2472 (7.2%)

2483 (5%)

2483 (7.6%)

2472 (7.3%)

6341 0360 (1.4%) 0342 0579 7923 0819

0723 (8.2%)

0723 (5.6%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.83 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.83 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
0721 (27%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 0577 (3.1%) Edible nuts

9710 (48%) Gold, non-monetary

2223 2238 (1.2%) Oil seeds & fruits N.E.S.

0723 2483 (3.8%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 6341 (1.5%) NULL 6342 (1.2%) Sheets of plywood 6842

2320 7499 (1.2%) Non-electric parts of machinery N.E.S. 0342 0371 5233

8931

6344 (0.8%) 2877 2873 2882

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

178 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GReeCe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.214 / (53/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.77% / (101/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.014 0.016 0.018 0.02 0.022 0.024 0.026

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 179

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (64/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 26 b / (63/16)

GDP ≥ USD 350 b / (26/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 31,174 / (23/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,278 / (57/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 7.3 % (126/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 556.98 M / 228.33 b (0,24%)
Total Exports: 556.98 M / 228.33 B (0.24%)

1988
0565 (3.4%) 1121 (2.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.98 b / 2.79 T (0.29%)
Total Exports: 7.98 B / 2.79 T (0.29%)

0571 (4.2%)

4235 (9%)

8462 (5.1%)

8451 (2.8%) 8459 (2.4%)

6513 (3.8%)

6716 (2.5%)

6822 6746 0589 (3.5%) (1.3%) (1.2%) 6783 6749 6747 6745

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0546 (2%)

0575 (1.4%)

0572 (1.4%) 0579 (3.7%) 6130 (6.5%)

6727 (2.3%)

0430 (2.1%) 0548 0422 2922 6841 (9.9%) 2634 2782 (4.5%)

0585 (2.1%) 6513 (3.5%)

0589 0546 (1.1%) 5629 5622

8435 (1.6%) 8431 (1.5%) 8434 (1.5%) 0411 (4.6%)

8439 (1.4%) 6589 8463

8452 8423 6522 (1.2%) 6517

0565 (1.7%) 4235 0545 (1.3%) 0585 7731

7932 (4.2%)

6623 0579 (1.7%) 1121 7144 8483 (4.5%) 6842 (2.5%)

2873 (3.5%)

8471 2789 2731 (0.92%) 2875 2874 5225 (2.2%) 6612 2116 (2.9%) 2114 (1.1%) 2919 (1%) 6842 5981 (1%)

5989 6560 (1%) 6924 6716 (1.3%) 7933

8433 8424 6584 8432 1211 (3.6%) 0575 (2.5%)

6841 (2%)

2782 (1.3%)

6612 (3.1%) 2873 0440 (2.3%) 1212 0571 2631 (0.99%)

6130 0240 0350 6512

8939 5417 6613 (0.87%) 3345 5621 5113

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 25.58 b / 15.56 T (0.16%) Total Exports: 25.58 B / 15.56 T (0.16%)
6842 (4.4%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7731 (2.1%) Electric wire 1211 (1.8%) Unstripped tobacco 2631 (1.8%) Raw cotton

6822 (4%) Worked copper & copper alloys

6783 (2.9%) Other iron or 5417 (6.8%) Medicaments steel tubes & pipes

1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes 6749 6724 5530 (1.9%) Perfumery & cosmetics 6282 6731 7781 7924 (1.5%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons 8731 0565 (2.8%) Prepared or preserved vegetables 4235 0579 (1.7%) Fresh or (2.1%) Olive dried fruit N.E.S. oil 0980 (0.98%) 0545 0484 8931 0483 0583 1110
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2223

6732 (1.9%) Iron/steel rods 7414 5542 (0.69%) 5334 8939 (1%) 5821 7415 5832 (1.7%) Polypropylene 5831 5989 (0.93%) Chemical products 5629 (0.57%) 8921 6624 6912 6911 (0.76%) (0.84%) Aluminium structures 8459 (2.6%) Other knitted outerwear 6428 6973 6552 (0.81%)

7752 0575 (1.1%) 0411 (0.74%)

6975

7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

0571 (0.91%) 8463 6575 6513 6522 6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 6612 (1.5%) Cement 2882 2789

8462 0341 (2.9%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 8483 (1.9%) Fur clothing (not headgear) 0240 (1.6%) Cheese & curd

2873 (1.1%) Aluminium ore 3354

0589 (2.3%) Prepared or preserved fruit

5833 0223

5823

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

180 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GUateMala
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.099 / (65/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.02% / (35/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

-2 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
570 456 342 228 114 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 181

POPULATION ≥ 14 M / (58/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.7 b / (86/11)

GDP ≥ USD 39 b / (78/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,860 / (86/17)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 566 / (93/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (101/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (38%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 269.04 M / 228.33 b (0,12%)
Total Exports: 269.04 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

1988
0111 (4.1%) 0141 0616 8472 (1.9%) 8510 (1%) 6522 (1.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 969.78 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 969.78 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

2631 (17%)

0711 (40%)

0573 (13%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8439 (3%)

8423

8435 8462 8434 2926 (1.6%) 0611 (1.5%) 2631 (4.1%) 0752 (4.2%) 0612 (4.1%) 0615 (1.9%) 2320 0545 (1.5%)

8441 8463 8452

8431

2223 0573 (7.8%)

4233

2634 2632

6581 5417 (1.7%) 0620 0980 (1.1%) 0545 0585 0914 6651 (1%) 2890

0579 (1.2%) 0360 (1.7%) 5913

0813 5530 (1.4%) 0712

0546 2927 2925 (0.82%) 0111 (2.1%) 2225 1212 (1.2%) 1211 0577 5513 2483 (1.1%)

0612 (2.7%)

0752

0541 2929

2320

0611

5513 7781 (1.2%) 1222 6749

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.74 b / 15.56 T (0.05%)

Total Exports: 7.74 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
0579 (1.9%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S. 0980 (1.7%) Edible products N.E.S. 5417 (2.5%) Medicaments 5530 (1.9%) Perfumery & cosmetics

0611 (5.8%) Raw sugar beet & 0573 (5.2%) Fresh or dried 0711 (9.8%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0545 (2.2%) cane banana & plantains Other fresh or chilled vegetables

1110 (1.2%)

0484 (1.1%) Bakery

0585

2320 (3.1%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

4242 (2.5%) Palm oil

2926 2927

0752 (3.2%) Spices other than pepper

0481

8931 (1.1%) 0620 (0.64%) 6421 (1.1%) 4312 0565

5542 (1.1%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S. 8939 5541 (0.94%) 5911 5913

5334

5543 5147 (0.78%)

5629

5834

1212 8459 (9.7%) Other knitted outerwear 8462 (2.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 6552

2225 8451 (0.81%) 6522

5121 (1.4%) 2890 (4%) Ores and precious metals 6924 (0.7%) 6911 (0.65%) 6513 6531 3413 (0.98%) liquified hydrocarbons 2882 6624 6732

6749 (1.3%) Other worked iron/steel sheets 6783 (0.74%) 6651 (0.89%)

7781

8423 (0.72%) 8431 8439 (2%) Other women outerwear 8463

0360 (0.85%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

182 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

GUINea
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.444 / (123/22) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.24% / (113/19)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
180 144 108 72 36 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 183

POPULATION ≥ 9.8 M / (72/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.8 b / (116/20)

GDP ≥ USD 3.8 b / (126/24) GDPpc ≥ USD 384 / (124/22)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 180 / (113/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (34/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 47.16 M / 228.33 b (0,02%)
Total Exports: 47.16 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

1988
0711 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 535.41 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 535.41 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

5225 (73%)

2873 (78%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6672 (16%)

0711

2232 (4.1%)

0573 (3.8%)

0577

2631 0721
5513 0579 (2.3%) 2820

0579

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.77 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.77 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
9710 (27%) Gold, non-monetary 8928 (6.6%) Printed matter N.E.S.

2873 (43%) Aluminium ore

3330 (12%) Crude petroleum

3413 (7.4%) liquified hydrocarbons 2320 (1.3%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 0411 2483 (1.4%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

184 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

hoNDURas
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.518 / (88/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.59% / (58/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
910 728 546 364 182 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 185

POPULATION ≥ 7.3 M / (81/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6.6 b / (89/13)

GDP ≥ USD 14 b / (104/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,909 / (94/19)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 903 / (79/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (32/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 225.34 M / 228.33 b (0,1%)
Total Exports: 225.34 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

1988
2482 (8.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 960.74 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 960.74 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0573 (56%)

0711 (13%)

0573 (44%)

0711 (20%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0360 (8.6%)

0111

0342
0111 (2.6%) 0011 0360 (1.4%) 0013 0542 (2%) 2631 (2.1%) 0440 (1.5%) 2223 2874 (3.1%) 2879 6612 5541 (1.4%) 0583

8465 (1.7%) 8423 8462 2482 (2%) 6359

8441 (1.4%) 8432

0579 (2.2%)

0589 1221

0583

0572

2875 (1.5%) 7932 (0.81%) 8947 2874 9410

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.61 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.61 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
8451 (14%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 0711 (11%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0573 (4%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

8462 (16%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

4242 (3.2%) Palm oil

0611 4244

1222 7731 (5.9%) Electric wire 3413 (2.1%) liquified hydrocarbons 9710 (1.6%) Gold, non-monetary

8459 (4.3%) Other knitted outerwear

8472 (2.5%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics

8429 (1.7%) Other men outerwear 6552 (1.3%)

2874 (0.72%) 0360 (2.5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

2882

5541 (0.88%)

8423 (3.1%) Men's trousers

8463 (2.8%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8465 (2.3%) Corsets 8439 (0.54%) 8441 (1.9%) Men's undershirt 2690 8997

0579 (2.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

8931

1221 (1.8%)

0819 6421 0484 0343 (1.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets 2820

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

186 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

hoNG KoNG saR, ChINa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.023 / (24/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.26% / (71/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.74

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
53 k 42.4 k 31.8 k 21.2 k 10.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 187

POPULATION ≥ 7 M / (83/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 370 b / (13/4)

GDP ≥ USD 215 b / (40/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 30,834 / (24/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 53,026 / (2/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 172 % (2/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.68 b / 228.33 b (0,73%)
Total Exports: 1.68 B / 228.33 B (0.73%)

1988
8124 (2.3%) 7788 (2%) 6991 6577 7782 5852 6673 8973 (1.6%) 2890 6998 8994 8851 8998 6960

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 42.13 b / 2.79 T (1.51%)
Total Exports: 42.13 B / 2.79 T (1.51%)

8472 (22%)

8510 (5.1%)

8942 (11%)

8942 (5.9%)

7649 (2.5%) 7599 (2.3%)

7628 8439 (3.8%) (2.1%) 8451 (3.7%)

8441 (2%) 8459 (2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8462 (2%) 6522 (7.4%)

8310 (4%) 7781 6584 (3.5%) 8471 (1.9%) 6521 (6.1%) 6522 (5.4%) 8997 8481 6513 (1.8%) 8972 (1.7%) 8830 6658 8999 (10%) 6672 (2%)

8310 (1.1%) 8481 8452 6560 6531 6534 6541

8852 (1.8%)

7764 8983 (1.6%) 7622

7712 7757

7512 8435 (2.1%)

7788 7611 (1.1%) (1%) 7641 7722 (1.1%) (1%) 7849 (5.1%)

8423 7763 7638 7522 8124 7518 (2.1%) 8811 7768 7284 (2.8%) 7758 (1%) 7243 7162

8429 (1.1%) 8463 8431 6552

8851 (4.7%)

6974 8973 (2.3%) 8998 6672 (1.2%) 6673

2923 8921 0360 (1.1%) 5335 1222 5530

8939 8972 (1.3%) 8999 8921 (0.87%) 8928 8483 0341 8931 (0.9%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 370.35 b / 15.56 T (2.38%) Total Exports: 370.35 B / 15.56 T (2.38%)
7599 (6.1%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7712 (2.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S. 8451 (2.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8459 (1.1%) Other knitted outerwear 8439 (1.1%) 8310 (1.9%) Luggage & handbags 6552 6522 (0.89%) Non synthetic knitted fibres 8462 (0.74%) 6513 8463 8481

7764 (14%) Electronic microcircuits

8942 (4.4%) Toys

7525 (2.3%) Control & peripheral hardware

8465 8423

8431 8441

8510 (1.8%) Footwear

7638 (2.3%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7649 (10%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7763 (1.6%) Diodes & transistors 7641 8710 (0.76%)

7781 (0.81%)

9710 (2.4%) Gold, non-monetary

6672 (3.1%) Not mounted diamonds

8851 (1.8%) Watches

7768 (0.79%) 8842 (0.53%) 7731 5833 (0.94%) Polystyrene 8921 (0.53%) 8972 6114 (0.54%)

7722 (2%) Printed circuits & parts N.E.S. 7788 (1.9%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

7642 (0.5%) 7518 7723 7757

8852 8124

7643 (1.6%) 7528 Television & radio transmitters 8841

8973 (1.5%) Precious jewellery 6811 5839 8748

7721 (2.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7169

7149

6822

8939

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

188 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

hUNGaRY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.430 / (14/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.31% / (22/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -10 -5 0 x 10
-3

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
11 k 8.8 k 6.6 k 4.4 k 2.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 189

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (70/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 109 b / (34/5)

GDP ≥ USD 155 b / (51/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 15,408 / (37/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 10,859 / (23/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 70 % (13/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0011 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 460.81 M / 228.33 b (0,2%)
Total Exports: 460.81 M / 228.33 B (0.2%)

1988
6782 (1.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.64 b / 2.79 T (0.24%)
Total Exports: 6.64 B / 2.79 T (0.24%)

6733 (2.5%)

0111 (4.6%)

0012 (2.1%) 0015 0118

0113 (1.6%) 0142

0114 (3.9%)

0149 0616 (0.92%) 0013 6521 (1.2%) 6544

7919 6991 0545 0565 0561 (1.5%) 6731 7914 6725 (2%) 8946 0586 0121 7782 8942 0579 (1%) (1.4%) 6746 6712 0589 1121 7915 (1.3%) 6931 (0.97%) 0546 5148 5155 5413 5414 2482 6582 7852 (1.1%) 6573 (1.6%) 8822 5169 6841 (3.5%) 5621 (1.5%) 5225 6612 6732

7841 (2.1%) 7212 (1.4%) 7831 (1.6%) 7219 (1.3%)

7782 (2.1%)

6259 6931 5112 (1%) 6252 5111

5156 (1%) 7742

5417 (1.8%) 5414

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8510 (1.8%)

8431 8459 8439

8472 (2%) 6584 8510 (1.1%) 8481 (1.1%) 8997 (0.81%) 8471

6522 (4.4%)

0751 0542 2924 2665 (1.1%) 2923 (0.86%) 9410 4236 0574 6658 3354 3232 (1.2%) (0.81%)

8424 5413 8310 8423 3351 6123 5161 6573 8481 7528 7641 7521 5148 8434 8433 5831 5834 5621 5913 7842 7361 8121 7522 7611 7642 8124 (2.1%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.3%) 3352 7491 7415 5832 6522 6542 6513 5629 6727 6725 6733 6782 7783 6842 (2.3%) 8219 1121 0545 0440 0411 (1.6%) 7272 6744 7367 6731 2224 2238 7449 0565 4236 7169 7752 0114 (2.9%) 0149 0113 0012 2919 8211 6997 6351 0546 0585 0542 0751 0811 (1.3%) (1.2%) 2450 6353 2925 2471 2472 0579 0561 2882 5225 2820 0142 0118 (2.7%) 6911 0980 0620 2483 6651 0913 5121 1124 0011 0451 6652 3232

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 109.10 b / 15.56 T (0.7%) Total Exports: 109.10 B / 15.56 T (0.7%)
7810 (8.1%) Cars 7643 (12%) Television & radio transmitters 7731 (2.9%) Electric wire 6842 (1%) 7752 (0.71%) 6911 6428 3510 (1.2%) Electric current 8211 (1.1%) Chairs & seats 6353

7132 (8.2%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

7611 (5.1%) Color T.V. 7849 (4.4%) Other vehicles parts 7139 (1.1%) 7212 7868

7649 (2.2%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

5417 (3.6%) Medicaments

5831

5834 (0.51%)

7431

7783

7239

7162 7525 (2.2%) Control & peripheral hardware 7528 7518 7763

8939 (1.1%) 0819 Miscellaneous articles of plastic 0440 (1.2%) Unmilled maize 2224 2226

5148

6251 7721 (2.7%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7169

7434 7422

7784 7758 6289 7415 7722 7782 (0.83%) 7149 (0.5%) 6727 (0.5%) 7523 (1.7%) CPUs 7638 7757 8124

0980 (0.68%) 8931

8749 6991 7919 7732

7429 6418 7499

0412 (0.7%) 0114 (0.58%) 0113

2820 (0.58%)

8743 (1.4%)

8732

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

190 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

INDIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.247 / (51/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.26% / (2/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
160 128 96 64 32 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 191

POPULATION ≥ 1.1 b / (2/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 182 b / (24/1)

GDP ≥ USD 1.2 T / (12/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,067 / (108/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 160 / (116/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 15 % (116/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0741 (16%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.97 b / 228.33 b (0,86%)
Total Exports: 1.97 B / 228.33 B (0.86%)

1988
6513 (1.2%) 6519 6592 (0.92%) 6584 8510 0360 (1.2%) 6673 6712 (2.5%) 6733 (1.8%) (0.96%) 6725 2877 (1.3%) 2879 6732 (1.5%) 6911 2820 8999 7731 0545 2911 6118 (4.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 16.03 b / 2.79 T (0.57%)
Total Exports: 16.03 B / 2.79 T (0.57%)

6545 (16%)

6522 (3.5%)

8435 (2.9%) 8441 (2.6%)

8481 (1.5%)

8433 (1%)

6584 6592 (3.1%) 6521 0741 (3.6%) (0.98%) (1.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0711 (1.4%) 0751 (1.3%)

2929 (1.1%) 2924 0752

6521 (3%) 6581 (4.4%) 0577 (5.4%) 2631 (1.4%) 6672 2922 2640 (2.3%) 2221 0752 2929 2785 (1.1%) (1.3%) 2924

6114

2919 2114

6123 (2.3%)

8310 8451 8510 (0.94%) (0.89%) (1.2%) 0577 8434 8471 6594 8462 6581 6513 (1.8%) 6541 (1.6%) 8439 (0.95%) 0422 (1.7%) 8459 6596 6522 (1.6%) 6116 (2.1%) 8463 2815 (4.6%) 6114 6113 2873 2731 2816 8973 2879 0360 (3.1%)

6545 (0.79%) 0813 (2.2%) 0421 2922 5311 5146 6115 7244 6975 7522 7761 6716

6672 (20%)

5417 5530 (1.3%)

0813 (5.1%)

4245 0711 (1.8%) 0751 (1.4%)

6953 6978 7853 0545 0579

5513

7852 8960

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 181.88 b / 15.56 T (1.17%) Total Exports: 181.88 B / 15.56 T (1.17%)
2815 (4.6%) Not agglomerated iron ore 2873 6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 6716 (1.5%) Ferro-alloys 6727 5169 (2.1%) Organic chemicals 5311 (0.9%) Synthetic organic dyes

6672 (13%) Not mounted diamonds

6861 2816 8973 (4%) Precious jewellery 6794 2731

6822 6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

6725

6746 6712 5112 (1.3%)

7161

7139

7851 7416

5417 (4.2%) Medicaments

3352 5911

7831 6821 (1.1%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys 8462 (2.1%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 8459 (1%) Other 8310 knitted outerwear 8441 6584 (1.4%) 8439 8481 6596 8432 8423 8434 6123 6594 0577 (0.62%) 2225 6522 6514 2631 (1.4%) 8433 6513 (1.6%) Cotton yarn 6531 0422 (2.5%) Semi or wholly milled rice

7929 (1.2%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 0813 (2.3%) Oilcake

7938 (1.1%) Special floating structures 0440 (0.8%) Unmilled maize 0360 (0.86%) 0111 6911 6732 (0.59%) 6114 6116 0545

8510 (1.1%) 8435 (1.1%)

0612 (0.65%) 0752 0741 0711 0751

0611 6613 (0.69%) 5823

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

192 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

INDoNesIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.007 / (61/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.32% / (21/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82

-2 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
600 480 360 240 120 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 193

POPULATION ≥ 227 M / (4/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 137 b / (30/9)

GDP ≥ USD 511 b / (19/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,245 / (90/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 603 / (91/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (75/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2320 (17%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 973.06 M / 228.33 b (0,43%)
Total Exports: 973.06 M / 228.33 B (0.43%)

1988
2876 (11%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 21.93 b / 2.79 T (0.78%)
Total Exports: 21.93 B / 2.79 T (0.78%)

2231 (5.1%)

3330 (32%)

3330 (23%)

2320 (8%)

4242 (3.2%)

0711 (7.9%)

2232 0751 (1.8%) 0741 (2.8%) 0752 (1.3%) 2221 0615 2923 0813 0548 (1.3%) 2472 (3.4%) 2471 6871 (2.1%) 2483 2873 8999 (1.5%) 5723 2114 6584 2872 0360

3413 (17%)

0711 (3.2%)

2923 0751 0741 2483 (4.1%) 0548 0752 0813 1211 0360 (3%) 6344 (0.87%) 6349 5621

6841 (1.8%)

2872 (1.8%)

2871 (1.7%)

6612 8973

8439 8441 8435 8423 8462 8463

6531 6534 6516

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

4242 6342 (12%) (1.8%)

4243 0721

0342 6871 (1.6%) 0341 6727

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 137.13 b / 15.56 T (0.88%) Total Exports: 137.13 B / 15.56 T (0.88%)
3330 (11%) Crude petroleum 4242 (11%) Palm oil 2320 (5.3%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 0711 8510 (1.6%) Footwear 8459 (1%) Other knitted outerwear 8439 8451 8462 8465 0813 4244 (1.3%) 0721 (0.75%) 0577 4243 3354 (2.1%) 8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6342 (0.91%) 2483 6415 (1.7%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets 2517 (1.3%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate 6412 (0.58%) 7452 (0.81%) 6251 5541 4313 6716 0914 5823 (0.53%) 7731 (0.84%) Electric wire 8211 6353 7638 (1%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7781 7641 6871 (1.7%) 0360 (1%) Unwrought tin & alloys Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & 0342 molluscs 5146 0372 8441 8423 6514 6516 8429 6354

3413 (12%) liquified hydrocarbons

3222 (9.2%) Other coal

2871 (2.9%) Copper

6821

2872 (1.7%) Nickel

5225 (0.51%)

6822 6744

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

194 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

IslaMIC RePUblIC of IRaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.229 / (118/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.27% / (111/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 195

POPULATION ≥ 72 M / (18/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 99 b / (35/3)

GDP ≥ USD 338 b / (28/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,700 / (69/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,379 / (71/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (67/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.12 b / 228.33 b (0,93%)
Total Exports: 2.12 B / 228.33 B (0.93%)

1988
6592 (5.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.64 b / 2.79 T (0.31%)
Total Exports: 8.64 B / 2.79 T (0.31%)

3330 (87%)

3330 (88%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6592 (5.3%)

2631 (2.4%)

0577 (2.8%)

0577 2922 2117 2919

0575 0752 2117 (0.84%) 0579

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.12 b / 15.56 T (0.93%) Total Exports: 2.12 B / 228.33 B (0.93%)

3330 (87%)

6592 (5.7%)

2631 (2.4%)

0577 2922 2117 2919
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

196 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

IRelaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.231 / (18/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.65% / (105/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.9

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
32 k 25.6 k 19.2 k 12.8 k 6.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 197

POPULATION ≥ 4.4 M / (102/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 127 b / (32/12)

GDP ≥ USD 266 b / (34/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 60,178 / (5/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 28,696 / (9/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 48 % (31/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0011 (17%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 921.12 M / 228.33 b (0,4%)
Total Exports: 921.12 M / 228.33 B (0.4%)

1988
2771 0730 (3.4%) 0121 (3%) 0620

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 18.36 b / 2.79 T (0.66%)
Total Exports: 18.36 B / 2.79 T (0.66%)

0111 (13%)

6672 (8%)

7523 (6.6%)

8983 (3.9%)

7522 7721 7758 6954

0111 (5.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0230 (2.9%)

0240 (1.7%) 5922 (1.4%) 2111 6522 6514 6534 8462

2874 (2.3%) 0015 (2.5%) 0149 (1.4%) 0116 0113 5413 (1.4%) 0819 8472 (1.9%)

0112 (1.7%) 0230 (3.7%) 0240 (2.2%) 0224

0115

2772 (2.5%)

2875 (1%) 2789

1123 (3.4%) 5415 (1.2%) 8720 8731 6931 6623

0980

7599 (6.2%)

7764 (1.4%)

6251 7525 7528 7822 (0.84%) 7757 8841 6733 5413 5530 8921

0011 0015 0112 (1.6%) 0149 0116 0980 (5.4%)

0224 (1.8%)

6940 7452 8942 9410 6658 0541 0542

5156 (4.1%)

7649 (0.96%) 7722 8720 5417 (3.1%) (1.4%) 5989 5154

7731 (1.3%) 7414 6652

0012 6114 (1.4%) 2681 2111 2919 6512 (0.78%) 0360

8510 6584

6210 6521 6519 8960

5148 5514 (1.1%)

8939 2772 (1.8%)

5139 5621

0730 (1.1%)

8931

8748 5146 5147

0620 1124 (1.9%) 1123 2873 (1.1%)

2875 6998 0488 2929 0430 0612 2665 3224 8924

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 127.14 b / 15.56 T (0.82%) Total Exports: 127.14 B / 15.56 T (0.82%)
5514 (6.9%) Odoriferous substances 5417 (18%) Medicaments 7523 (5%) CPUs 7764 (4.6%) Electronic microcircuits

5156 (15%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids

7599 (2.9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7522 (1.9%) Digital data processing machines

8841 (1.2%)

7525 (1.1%)

5148 (5.3%) Other nitrogen-function compounds

8720 (3.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

8996 (3.3%) Orthopaedic appliances 0111 (1.9%) Bovine meat

7528

0980 (0.94%)

1124 (0.85%) Alcoholic beverages

0730 0149 5989 (4.3%) Chemical products 5416 (2.5%) Glycosides & vaccines 5155 (0.73%) 5145 (0.6%) 5157 (1.1%) 5415 5146 5413 (1.4%) Antibiotics 5139 5530 5419 0240 (0.86%) Cheese & curd 5922 0230 0224 0484 0488 (1.3%) Malt extract & cereal preparations containing less than 50% cocoa 7414 2873 2875

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

198 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

IsRael
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.164 / (19/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.46% / (64/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

22% OF WT

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

0.5

0

-0.5

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
8.6 k 6.8 k 5.1 k 3.4 k 1.7 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 199

POPULATION ≥ 7.3 M / (82/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 63 b / (49/6)

GDP ≥ USD 202 b / (42/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 27,652 / (25/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,565 / (30/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 31 % (64/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 575.78 M / 228.33 b (0,25%)
Total Exports: 575.78 M / 228.33 B (0.25%)

1988
0572 (6.8%) 2221 2634 0813 4232 2927

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 10.20 b / 2.79 T (0.36%)
Total Exports: 10.20 B / 2.79 T (0.36%)

6672 (40%)

0571 (19%)

6672 (37%)

7499 (3.2%)

7284 (2%) 7281 8946

7622 (2.2%) 7641

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7788 7649

7929 (3%)

0585 (4.7%)

8472 (3.4%)

5623 (3.7%) 2713 (2.2%)

0589 (1.8%) 2871 6998 6612 0579

0545 0561

8481 6513 (2.3%)

5221 6521 7131 6517 7928 8960 2665

7643 7781 7757 7763 7149 9510 7452 7768 7754 8710 6259 7528 8748 8742 5232 2713 0585 (3.3%) 0571 0572 (1.1%) (1.9%) 8720 7741 2927 2631 5222 5622 0579 0589 (1.7%) (0.9%) 5629 0980 0546 6954 5623 (1.8%) 8973 2782 5911 8939 5914 (1%) 5834 8462 (1.1%) 5831 8459 6514 0149 8424

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 62.65 b / 15.56 T (0.4%) Total Exports: 62.65 B / 15.56 T (0.4%)
5989 (5.3%) Chemical products 7742 (1.3%) X-ray apparatus 8742 8720 7649 (3.8%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 7788 (1.4%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S. 7622 (0.55%) 7723 6954 (1.6%) Interchangeable hand and machine tools 7492 7929 (2.6%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7923 (1.7%) Aircrafts of between 2 and 15 tons 7452 (0.75%) 8749 6572

6672 (39%) Not mounted diamonds

7741 (0.89%) 5112

5839

5417 (9.3%) Medicaments

8939 (1.8%)

7149 5629 (4%) Fertilizers 5622 (1.1%) Phosphatic fertilizers 5222 5832 (0.8%) 0579
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5913 (1.1%) Herbicides

6997 (1.3%) 3510 Articles of iron (0.72%) or steel N.E.S. 6633 0545 0980 6514

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

200 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ItalY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.308 / (16/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.18% / (75/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
9k 7.2 k 5.4 k 3.6 k 1.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 201

POPULATION ≥ 60 M / (22/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 542 b / (7/4)

GDP ≥ USD 2.3 T / (7/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 38,385 / (20/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,059 / (27/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 24 % (86/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
7810 (10%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 10.28 b / 228.33 b (4.5%)
Total Exports: 10.28 B / 228.33 B (4.5%)

1988
6732 6842 6624

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 127.35 b / 2.79 T (4.56%)
Total Exports: 127.35 B / 2.79 T (4.56%)

7411 (2.7%)

7499 (2.3%) 7512 (2.3%)

0579 (2%) 1121 (1.9%) 6973

7849 (3.2%) 7284 (2.4%)

7245 6991 7442 7499 7431 6782 7162 7428 7449 7283 7783 7362 7373 6785 8310 8459 8439 8471

7244 6251 7523 8124 7751 (0.83%) 7415 6783 6822 6542 6514 6543 6541 6522 6534

7452 7851 7281 7244 (3.1%) 8510 (8.2%) 6782 7243

7283 7271 6785 8946 7371 6940 7832 8472 (7.9%)

6341 8942 7511 0545 (1.6%) 0589 6924 6911 (0.95%) 0585 6633 8842 6652 6960 8124 0565 7852 8952 8998 6746 5413 8922 5629 6613 6822 6783 (1.1%) 5221 8921 6573 2665 5148 3345 5621 (1%) (0.91%) 8310 6513 8973 6998 2671 0572 0574 0577 (1.5%) (1.7%) 2731 8471 6541 6584 6517 0575 0571 2927 5513 6114 0240 6512

7493 7272 6940 7491 7369 7434 7439

8219 (2.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6624 (2%)

8211 8939 (1.6%) (1.3%) 8921 6573 5839 5147 6412 5834 6210

7452 (1.6%) 7492 (1.3%) 7281 (1%) 7416 7758 7224 7361 8510 (5.7%)

6732 7752 6842

7414 6911 6997

6973

1121 (1.4%) 0545 0579 0546 0730 0589 6613 (1.5%) 2665 7853 7248

8973 (2.9%)

8451 (2.9%)

8481 8463 8472 8424 8422 8434 8431 6552

6114 0240

0575

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 541.81 b / 15.56 T (3.48%) Total Exports: 541.81 B / 15.56 T (3.48%)
7721 (1.3%) 7442 Switchboards, relays & fuses 7416 (0.95%) 7493 8219 (2.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6624 6732 (1.2%) Iron/steel rods 8211 (1%) 8451 6997 (0.85%) 6842 (0.72%) 8842 5417 (3.2%) Medicaments 7731 (0.83%) 7414 6911 7752 6428 8422 8463 6522 8432 6552 8510 (2.4%) Footwear 8310 (1%)

7849 (3.9%) Other vehicles parts

7284 (2.4%) Specialized 7452 (2%) industry machinery & parts Non-electrical N.E.S machines parts N.E.S. 7492 (2.2%) Valves 7821 (1.6%) Trucks & vans

8439 (0.78%) 8481 8471

7281

7234

6785

7758

7499 7272

7372 8121 7361

7436 7822 7428

7491 7212 7449

7413

7239 6991 7224

7139 7431 7162

7362 7441 6954

1121 (1.3%) Wine

0565

0484 0730

6782

7283

7851 7132

6731 8743 6572 6727 8124 7751 7757 7415 8947 7921 7932 (1.4%) Ships & boats 7149 7929

8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5530 (0.78%) 5831 (0.59%) 6210

0980 (0.62%) 6613

0483

7853

6114 (0.89%)

0240

6783 (1.1%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 6822 (0.72%)

6746 6749 6744

8973 (1.5%) Precious jewellery

6998 (0.55%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

202 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

jaMaICa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.343 / (81/13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.35% / (66/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.2 k 960 720 480 240 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 203

POPULATION ≥ 2.7 M / (117/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.5 b / (110/21)

GDP ≥ USD 14 b / (103/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,301 / (66/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 923 / (78/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (108/17)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 273.11 M / 228.33 b (0.12%)
Total Exports: 273.11 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

1988
0611 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 979.83 M / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 979.83 M / 2.79 T (0.04%)

2873 (47%)

2873 (42%)

8462 (5.8%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8459 (2.3%) 8451 (2.2%)

8465 8441 (1.6%) (1.6%) 8429 (1.2%) 8435 (1%) 5121 (1.7%) 1221 (0.94%) 8434 8433

8439 (3%)
0573 (9.9%)

8423 (2.7%) 8463 (1.7%)

0611 (8%)

0573 (2.8%)

1124 (4.7%)

0612 (4.6%) 5225 (14%)

0615 (1.3%) 0751

0721
3345 (0.87%)

7932 (3.6%)

1124 (2.1%)

0589 0585

8471 (1.8%)

0548 (1.3%)

0711 0612 0571 (1.2%) 0751

0360 0344 (1.1%) 0342 5832 8212 (0.97%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.48 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.48 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
5121 (7.8%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives 1124 (2.5%) Alcoholic beverages

2873 (69%) Aluminium ore

1123 (1.7%) Beer

0980 (1.1%) Edible products N.E.S.

0484

1110

0589 0579 0711 (1.4%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0548 (1.3%) Fresh & dried vegetables, roots & tubers N.E.S.

0611 (5.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane

5156 (1.3%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5114

2820 (1%)

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

204 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

jaPaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 2.316 / (1/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.71% / (50/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.4
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.4 2.2

2.2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 -0.05 -0.045 -0.04 -0.035 -0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
6.1 k 4.8 k 3.6 k 2.4 k 1.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 205

POPULATION ≥ 128 M / (10/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 781 b / (4/2)

GDP ≥ USD 4.9 T / (2/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 38,268 / (21/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 6,116 / (36/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (113/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 12.47 b / 228.33 b (5.46%)
Total Exports: 12.47 B / 228.33 B (5.46%)

1988
8510 (1.8%) 8472 (1.5%) 8310 8471 6575 6560 6354 6584 6664 6960 6953 8851 7852 6517 6521 6732 6624 6665 (1.3%) 8952 8994 7731 6911 8998 6998 6612 6522 (3.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 278.88 b / 2.79 T (9.98%)
Total Exports: 278.88 B / 2.79 T (9.98%)

7810 (6.7%)

7821 (2.3%) 7244 (1.8%)

6731 6940 7919

7491 (1.1%) 8812 7822 7832 6781 7788 (1.4%) 8811 (1.4%)

7810 (19%)

7849 7638 (3.3%) (3.8%) 7764 (3.1%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7599 (3%)

7649 (2.7%)

8822 8748

7641 (1.9%) 8947 7761 7763 7642 7512 7762 8841 8710

7851 (3.1%)

6782 (2.4%) 7243 (1.7%) 6746 (2.6%)

7932 (12%)

7411 6785 (1.3%) 7271 7783 6749 8942 (1.9%) (2%)

5156 8742

7788 (1.6%) 7768 7628 7611 7821 (3.4%) 7284 7139 7132 7783 7442 7441 7518 (1.3%) (1.9%) 7243 7244 7648 8983 7431 7491 7758 7831 (1.2%) (0.99%) 7162 7591 7525 6782 (0.98%) (1.1%) 7245 7499 6746 (1.3%) 6783 7361 6954 6731 6940 7138 7851 6744 6749 7362 7367 8811 7415 7712 8982 7621 7932 (1.8%)

6783 (1.9%)

6747 (1.5%)

8710 8947 7512 6770

7781 8841

6822 6733 6727 5224

8982 7511 8852 5621 6931 7782 (1.3%)

5148 2331 2665 (1.7%) 2671 (0.99%) 8720

8851 (0.99%) 8952 6531 7853

7721 (1.6%) 7234 (1.1%)

6573 6512 0589 0611 (0.96%) 5231

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 781.49 b / 15.56 T (5.02%) Total Exports: 781.49 B / 15.56 T (5.02%)
7849 (4.8%) Other vehicles parts 7764 (4.7%) Electronic microcircuits 7649 (2.4%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 5989 (1.8%) Chemical products 5112 (0.91%) 5839 (0.75%) 5156 8742 (0.5%) 8748 8822 2331 7741

7810 (19%) Cars

7638 (2.1%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S.

7788 (1.8%) Other electrical 7768 (1%) 7781 (0.74%) machinery & equipment N.E.S. 8710 (0.73%) 7284 (4.3%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7132 (0.83%) 7493 (0.8%) 7491 (0.64%) 8749 Internal Mechanical combustion tools for 7783 engines for 7239building 7361 7442 (0.63%) 6251 motor vehicles 7492 (0.62%) 7367 7234 (2.1%) Construction & mining machinery 7139 (1.1%) 7499 Piston engines parts N.E.S. 6954 7851 (0.94%) Motorcycles 6940 7133 7138 (0.51%) 7162 7441 8743 6782 6822 (0.59%) 6745 6733 6744 (0.66%) 6725 6252 7782 7436 7431 7763 (1.5%) Diodes & transistors 8841 (1.4%) 7722 7518 7712 7161 6727 6749 6746 7932 (3.2%) Ships & boats 7415 7648

7831

2820 5823

5833

7821 (2%) Trucks & vans

6821

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

206 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

joRDaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.325 / (45/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.42% / (14/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 207

POPULATION ≥ 5.8 M / (90/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 8 b / (82/14)

GDP ≥ USD 23 b / (93/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,905 / (79/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,368 / (73/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 35 % (57/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2713 (54%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 33.54 M / 228.33 b (0.01%)
Total Exports: 33.54 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

1988
0571 (2.4%) 0574 (1.2%) 0575

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 764.43 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 764.43 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0542 (5.8%)

2713 (30%)

5623 (18%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0545 (7.9%)

0579

0544 (2.8%)

0460 (2%)

1222 (1.7%)

0577

3330 (11%)

0811 0430 0545 (2.5%) 0579 (1.1%) 7821 0620

0544 (3.1%)

0571 (1.6%)

0572

0577 1222 7149 (2.4%) 2882 (2.1%) 5629 (13%) 5622 (2.2%) 5231 5232 5621 5417 (3.8%) 7928 7144 6613 (2.1%) 7131 8743 0012 6973

6612 (3%) 5622 5629

6731

7283

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.95 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.95 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
5621 (6.7%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 8459 (7.6%) Other knitted outerwear 8439 (1.6%) Other women outerwear 8462 (1.4%) 7643 (3.2%) Television & Knitted radio transmitters undergarments of cotton 7162 (1.1%) AC electric motors & generators 7831 7415

5623 (11%) Potassic fertilizers

7751 7929 (1.2%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7131 6749

8451 (1.3%) 8463 (1.2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8434 (0.83%) 0545 (2.7%) Other fresh or 0980 chilled vegetables (0.96%) 1110 8931

2713 (7.6%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium

5417 (7.5%) Medicaments

8973 (1.8%) Precious jewellery

9710 (1.2%) Gold, non-monetary 6612

2882

0579 5222 (3.8%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds 5232 (1.9%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts 8939 5530 0819 5334 5542 5335 6924 (2%) Metal cask for packing goods 6842 7414 4312 (1.1%) 7731 (2.1%) Electric wire 6417 8219 6428 0114 0149 0251

0544 (2.8%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes

1222

5622 (1.1%)

5231 (0.72%) 5629 (0.63%)

0224

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

208 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

KazaKhstaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.608 / (92/23) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.82% / (98/25)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
4.6 k 3.6 k 2.7 k 1.8 k 920 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 209

POPULATION ≥ 16 M / (55/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 71 b / (42/6)

GDP ≥ USD 133 b / (53/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,514 / (51/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,555 / (40/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (27/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.05 b / 4.30 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 1.50 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

1988
6716 (5.5%) 6727 (3.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.64 b / 5.90 T (0.15%)
Total Exports: 8.64 B / 5.90 T (0.15%)

3330 (39%)

6821 (11%)

3330 (53%)

6821 (7.8%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6716 (3.9%)

6746 (2.7%)

6746 (3.4%) 6811 (7.5%) 6861 (3.1%)

6744 (1.1%) 6745

5224 6733 6747 2631 (2.9%)

2873 (2.2%)

6811 (1.7%) 6899 2816

6749 (1.6%) 6727 (1.4%)

6747 6822 6744 2631

2681 (3%)

2116 2111

6861 (2%) 3222 (2.9%)

5241 (2.9%)

6899 (0.83%) 6851 2881

2682 5221 (1.8%)

0371 5629 3345 (0.94%) 0411

2877 2815 0412 (3.9%) 5241 (1.8%) 9710 (1.3%) 2820 (1.1%) 5232

6851 2875

6841

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 71.40 b / 15.56 T (0.46%) Total Exports: 71.40 B / 15.56 T (0.46%)
6821 (3.7%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys 6716 (4.4%) Ferro-alloys

3330 (64%) Crude petroleum

2879 (0.68%) 2816 (1.2%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (0.73%) 2815 (0.72%)

2871 (0.53%) 6861 (0.95%) Unwrought zinc & alloys 6811

6725 (0.93%) 6727 (0.92%) Iron/steel Iron/steel coils billets 6749 (0.79%) 6746 (0.78%) 7924 0412 (2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0460 (1.3%) 6822 (0.51%)

5241 (1.9%) 2741 Radioactive chemical elements

3222 (1.2%) Other coal

6851 2820 (0.87%) 6114

9710 (0.82%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

210 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

KeNYa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.276 / (73/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.46% / (13/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
170 136 102 68 34 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 211

POPULATION ≥ 39 M / (31/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 b / (96/10)

GDP ≥ USD 30 b / (81/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 775 / (115/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 130 / (120/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (110/21)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (29%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 170.69 M / 228.33 b (0.07%)
Total Exports: 170.69 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

1988
0149 (3.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 896.34 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 896.34 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0741 (20%)

0711 (34%)

0741 (28%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0589 (4.1%)

0545 (4.1%)

2111

2114 6118

2120 2911 5322 (2%)

0579 (3.1%)

5232 (2.4%) 2631 (3.5%) 2654 (3.3%) 0577 (1.4%)

0585 (1.4%) 0565 6113 0344 (0.94%) 6115

6116 (2%) 6114 (1.9%) 0577 2927 (4%) 2929 0615 2654 5232 (1.7%)

0440 (9.1%) 2929 (3%) 2924 (2.5%) 0542 (1.4%) 0615

0819 8921 2634 2235 6612 0589 (0.84%) 2221 0813 2876 (2%) 7131 8731 6354 9610

2111 2114 5989 2785 6673 (0.83%) 5322 8741 8997

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.05 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.05 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
0545 (6%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables 5232 (4.8%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts

0741 (22%) Tea

0589 (1.8%) 8931 (1.6%) Prepared or Closable preserved fruit plastic packing

0914 (1%) Margarine 6421 (0.64%)

0565 5541 (0.97%) Soaps 5621 5542 (0.62%) 5543 8921 6842 (0.74%) 6732 6996 6911 (0.64%) 3510 7144 6749 (2.4%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

0585 (0.54%)

0620 2927 (12%) Flora 0711 (3.6%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 8439 (1.5%) Other women outerwear 8459 (1.5%) Other knitted outerwear 6612 (2.8%) Cement 8510 (0.91%) Footwear 8432

0579 (0.59%) 8423

2929

0488 0542

8451 2783 (0.94%) 2785

6974 (0.82%) 0342 (0.67%) 6114 0344 2882 0343 6116 8928 (0.98%) 6651

1222 (2.1%) Cigarretes 2926 (1.2%) 4242 (1.2%)

1212

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

212 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

KoRea, RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.469 / (12/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.09% / (28/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.8 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
8.7 k 6.9 k 5.2 k 3.4 k 1.7 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 213

POPULATION ≥ 49 M / (24/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 422 b / (12/3)

GDP ≥ USD 931 b / (15/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,162 / (33/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,682 / (29/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 45 % (37/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 421.91 M / 228.33 b (0.18%)
Total Exports: 421.91 M / 228.33 B (0.18%)

1988
0548 (7.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 60.08 b / 2.79 T (2.15%)
Total Exports: 60.08 B / 2.79 T (2.15%)

8472 (23%)

8510 (4.6%)

8999 (14%)

7764 (4.5%)

7649 (1.7%) 8983 (1.4%)

7761 7621 8510 (7.8%) (1.3%) (1.2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8481 (3.5%)

6531 (3.2%)

6575 (1.6%) 8471 6584 2613 (7.4%) 6541 (7.3%) 6521 (5.5%)

6560 (1.4%) 2924 (2.7%) 8997 8310 2874 (1.2%) 2785 2782 2875 0360 (2.6%) 2789 7788 (0.79%) 5621 (1.2%) 6597 6960 2919 2929

7638 (3%) 8942 (2.3%) 7810 (6.1%) 7611 (2.2%)

8947 7788 7628 7522 7763 7642 7641 7622 7525 8310 8482 (2.3%)

8451 (2.6%) 8441 8459 8463 8435 8424 8472 8439 (1.1%) 8431 8462 6534 6541 6516

7523 8429 6727 (1.6%) 6744 6746 (1.3%) 6783 6974 6252 6931 8851 7731 7711 6732 6259

2879 (4.3%) 6511 2614

7758 (1.8%)

6251 6940

7932 (2.8%)

8421 8842 0360 0342 8939 (1.1%) 6573 0344 3345 0341 8483 6512 5629

6613 8972 2929 6612

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 422.33 b / 15.56 T (2.71%) Total Exports: 422.33 B / 15.56 T (2.71%)
8710 (7.3%) Optical instruments 7810 (9.9%) Cars 7849 (4.1%) Other vehicles parts 7284 (1.7%) 5112 (1.7%) Cyclic 5138 (1.2%) Specialized hydrocarbons Polycarboxylic industry acids & machinery & derivatives parts N.E.S 5839 2331 5148 (0.88%) (0.63%) Other 7499 polymerization 5111 (0.63%) & 6954 copolymarization 5831 5832 products (0.94%)

7764 (8.1%) Electronic microcircuits

7234 (1%) 7239 Construction & mining machinery 7416 (0.63%) 7643 (7%) Television & radio transmitters 7649 (5.5%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 7932 (11%) Ships & boats 7133

6785 7247 7831 7361 7431

6749 (1.6%) Other 6746 (1.3%) worked iron/steel Iron/steel sheets <3mm tick sheets 6727 (1.2%) Iron/steel coils 6783

7731 (0.9%) Electric wire 6842 6552 (0.95%)

7752

6531 6514

7722 7788 (0.86%) 7938 (2%) Other electrical 7415 machinery & equipment * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7525 (2%) Control & peripheral hardware

7599 (1.9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7781 (0.92%) Batteries

8841 (0.81%) 6822 (0.83%)

6733

6745

5833 (1.1%) 5823 (0.93%) Polyesters 3354

6770

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

214 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

KUWaIt
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.219 / (116/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.82% / (124/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.986

0.988

0.99

0.992

0.994

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
18 B 14.4 B 10.8 B 7.2 B 3.6 B 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 215

POPULATION ≥ 2.7 M / (116/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 88 b / (37/4)

GDP ≥ USD 148 b / (52/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 54,260 / (7/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 32,221 / (8/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 59 % (21/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.07 b / 228.33 b (0.91%)
Total Exports: 2.07 B / 228.33 B (0.91%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.95 b / 2.79 T (0.28%)
Total Exports: 7.95 B / 2.79 T (0.28%)

3330 (100%)

3330 (79%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3413 (8%)

3345 (3.9%)

5621 (2.5%)

3352 5221 (0.82%) 6531 (0.8%) 6911 6649

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 87.91 b / 15.56 T (0.57%) Total Exports: 87.91 B / 15.56 T (0.57%)

3330 (92%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

216 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

KYRGYz RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.240 / (69/21) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.41% / (15/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
310 248 186 124 62 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 217

POPULATION ≥ 5.3 M / (95/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 b / (121/23)

GDP ≥ USD 5.1 b / (122/26) GDPpc ≥ USD 974 / (113/26)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 309 / (105/25) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 32 % (62/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2882 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 121.56 M / 4.30 T (0.003%)
Total Exports: 121.56 M / 4.30 T (0.003%)

2001
6746 (6.1%) 6744 6745 (1.5%) 6783 6733 (1.2%) 6747 (2.9%) 6725 6727

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 470.38 b / 5.90 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 470.38 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

2112 (6.6%)

9710 (52%)

1211 (5.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3510 (11%)

2116 (5.4%) 6899 (11%)

2111 (3.4%)

2631 (5%)

2117 6114 2681 (9.5%) 2879 (5%) 6821 5225 (2.5%) 2682 (1.8%) 2687 6512 2686 (1.3%) 2683 2632 2631 (8.3%) 6513 2614 6522 6732 (2.1%)

0542 (1.1%) 7832 (2%)

6618 7831 (1.5%) 2111 2116 (1.2%) 5221

6924 0240 2820 (1.2%)

5241 (1.7%)

2634

5629 5221

7782 (2.8%) 5241 2882 6899

8931

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.63 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.63 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
8435 (3%) Blouses 8439 (1.4%) 2631 (2.3%) Raw Other women cotton outerwear 0542 (2%) Dried or shelled legumes

9710 (45%) Gold, non-monetary

8433 (1.2%) Dresses 8432 (1.1%) Women's suits 0579 (2.1%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

8434 (0.99%) Skirts

8423

0577 (1.1%) 0544 1211 (1.4%) Unstripped tobacco 0575 (1.2%) Grapes & raisins 2112 (0.63%) 6114 0240 (0.92%) 0011 2685

0914 (1%)

8931 (0.56%) 0546

0223 (1.6%) Fresh milk & cream

6421 0545 (1.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables 6644 (3.1%) Unworked surface-ground cast glass 0980

0730

6612 (4.6%) Cement

8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery 6841 6811

2890 2732

7782 (2.1%) Incandescent & fluorescent bulbs

3510 (2.5%) Electric current

2820 (1%)

2882

3354

6618 (0.51%)

5221 (0.56%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

218 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lao PDR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.880 / (102/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.24% / (72/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.94

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
220 176 132 88 44 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 219

POPULATION ≥ 6.2 M / (88/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.4 b / (125/16)

GDP ≥ USD 5.5 b / (120/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 882 / (114/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 224 / (112/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (82/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.28 M / 228.33 b (0.002%)
Total Exports: 5.28 M / 228.33 B (0.002%)

1988
0752 2221

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 53.05 M / 2.79 T (0.002%)
Total Exports: 53.05 M / 2.79 T (0.002%)

2876 (37%)

0711 (26%)

2472 (45%)

2820 (11%)

0542 2924 2483 (19%)

6545 0577 2922

2882 (11%)

0711 (4.6%) 2483 (12%) 2471 (6.6%) 2923 (2.1%) 2924 (1.3%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6584 6552 2911 (1.9%) 2111

8423 8441

6811 (6.8%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.39 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.39 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
2483 (12%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 3510 (8.4%) Electric current

6821 (38%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2472 (5.6%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

7731

8423 (3.4%) Men's trousers

8441 (2.3%) Men's undershirt

8459 (1.8%) 0711 (3.3%) Green & roasted Other knitted coffee & coffee substitutes outerwear

8451 (3.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8463 (1.6%) 8429 Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8439 (0.78%) 2732 3222 2876 6899
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0440 (1.4%) Unmilled maize

2320 (0.95%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

2871 (4%)

8462 (3%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

5221

0545

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

220 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

latvIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.594 / (39/13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.63% / (53/21)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 5 10 15 x 10
-3

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
4.1 k 3.2 k 2.4 k 1.6 k 820 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 221

POPULATION ≥ 2.3 M / (119/24) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.4 b / (80/18)

GDP ≥ USD 34 b / (79/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,937 / (38/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,130 / (43/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (72/17)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.46 b / 4.30 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 1.46 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

2001
2471 (5.2%) 2472 (3.9%) 6342 (2.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.04 b / 5.90 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 2.04 B / 5.90 T (0.03%)

3330 (28%)

2482 (11%)

2482 (17%)

6732 (5.7%) 8451 (1.4%) 8465 8439 6514 5417 (2.9%) (1%) (0.99%) 8423 6513 6546 5530 8462 8431 8435 (0.94%) 6519 5334 8921 8434 8429 8459 5629 5621 (0.75%) 0371 (2.7%) 5922 0240 7784 7499 8928 6992 7913 (1.4%) 0344 6359 (2.1%) 6341 6633 6911 8211 6343 6512 3222 0980 8931 1222 0585 1110 0412 6421 3224 6584 6553

6732 (1.4%) 8219 (1.2%) 5623 (3.9%)

6343 2460 8211 2483 6341 6359 0342 0371 (1.2%) 0341 2111 6114 (0.94%) 5922 2820 3224 (1.2%)

6584 8439 2882 (3.4%) 5225 (3.8%) 6821 (1.3%) 8451 8429

8423 8431

8434 6514 (1.1%) 8424

8219 (4.7%)

6353 (3.1%)

2483 (3%) 2472 (2.5%)

6342 (3.7%)

8465 6712 (1.5%) 6744 6733

6731 6992 6770

3345 5824 2631 (2.1%)

6841 (2%)

6831 (0.88%) 6716

2471 (3.3%) 2460

6841 (3.1%) 2882 (1.5%) 8974

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.36 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.36 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)
6342 (2.5%) Sheets of plywood 8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 5417 (3.9%) Medicaments 5530 (0.76%) 5335 (0.53%) 6546 (0.5%) 0412 (3%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2226 (1.1%) 0813 Rape & colza seeds 0430 6633 (0.73%) 7861 8211 7611 (2.3%) Color T.V. 7643 (1.2%) Television & 8465 radio transmitters 8451 6552 0484 3510 1121 (1%) Wine 1124 (2.3%) Alcoholic beverages 2820 (2.8%) Iron & 3224 (1.4%) steel waste Peat 1222 (0.98%) Cigarretes 8939 5989 (1.2%) 0223 (1.4%)

6732 (8.1%) Iron/steel rods

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6353 (2.4%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

8921

2471 (1.9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of coniferous

0240 (0.95%) Cheese & curd 0371 (1.7%) Fish N.E.S. 0341 0344

2482 (5.4%) Worked wood of coniferous

2472 (1.9%) Sawlogs & 6911 (1.6%) veneer logs of Iron/steel non-coniferous structures 6343 (1.8%) Improved wood & reconstituted wood 6359 (1.6%) Manufactured of wood N.E.S. 6783 (0.89%) 6744 (0.87%)

2483 (1.1%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 6997 (0.86%)

2460 (2.5%) Pulpwood

7721 (1.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 8121 7842

7436 7868

6584 8423

6519

6749 (0.81%)

6733 6745 7131 (0.59%)

6746

5225 (1.5%) Inorganic bases & metallic oxides, hydroxides & peroxides 6612

6841 (0.72%) 2882 (0.69%) 6794

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

222 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lebaNoN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.403 / (44/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.05% / (33/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
870 696 522 348 174 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 223

POPULATION ≥ 4.2 M / (105/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.5 b / (105/16)

GDP ≥ USD 30 b / (82/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,138 / (55/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 839 / (81/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (123/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 275.58 M / 228.33 b (0.12%)
Total Exports: 275.58 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

1988
2117 (1.9%) 5417 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 587.44 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 587.44 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

3330 (29%)

6811 (5.3%) 2919 (5.5%)

8973 (19%)

6672 (3.1%) 0545 (7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0571 (2.4%) 0541 (3.7%)

0574 0575 (1.2%) 0572 1211 (1.1%) 0577 2238 2919 (1.4%) 2111

5222 5622 (1.2%) 8973 6612 7928 (2.3%) 7821 (1.3%) 0980 0579 0585 0014 6611 0574 (6.6%) 0571 (3.3%) 0542 (3.3%) 0541 7131 (0.77%) 0812 6842 (1.4%) 2221 6732 7283 6785 6618 7731 6973 8830 2820 6513 6592 6781 6421 0484 9610 (2.3%) 8310 0545

2681 (1.4%)

2682 0114

8921 (2.2%) 6118 2116 2114 5335 8922

0579 (3%) 6673 (1.3%) 2882 (2.6%)

0620 0565 (0.85%) (0.79%) 1110

6612 8421 (3.9%)

8462 (2%) 8433 8310

8510 (3.4%)

0572 (1.7%)

8439 (1.4%) 8423

0980 6842 (2.2%) 8219 (0.81%) 8122 6584 6624 6911 8471 8921 (4.9%) 8431 8472

8851 2117 (3.5%) (1.2%) 8960 7929 7272 8124 7711

2820 (1.5%) 6423 6651

0813

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.52 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.52 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
2882 (3.5%) Other non-ferrous base metals 8219 (2.7%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6428 (1.4%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S. 7752 (1.1%) 7731 (1.9%) Electric wire 6998 6672 (3.8%) Not mounted diamonds 7414 (0.74%) 6353 (0.7%) 6842 (1.5%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7861 6417 (0.7%) 6912 0565 (1.2%) Prepared or preserved vegetables 0980 (1%) 6924 6997 9510 7283 7144 (0.83%) 7252 7272 7131 7169 7138 7436 6783 8124 (0.86%) Other iron or steel 0481 & 1211 (1.1%) tubes pipes Unstripped tobacco 6911 7162 (4.7%) AC electric motors & generators

9710 (10%) Gold, non-monetary

8973 (3.9%) Precious jewellery

6612 (3.7%) Cement

2820 (6.4%) Iron & steel waste

0589 (0.97%) 0541 Prepared or preserved fruit 1110 (0.92%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 1121 0545

5622 (6.9%) Phosphatic fertilizers

5530 (1.6%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8921 (1.5%) Printed books & maps

8939 (1.2%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5334

0574 0571 8433 (0.69%) 8510 (0.57%) 6534

0620 (0.76%) 8928 6613 6423 7853 6421 (0.69%) 8931 (0.57%)

5222 (3.2%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

0585 4235

5831 (1.1%) Polyethylene

5832 5834

5839

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

224 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lIbeRIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.128 / (112/18) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.07% / (84/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.975

0.98

0.985

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.2 k 960 720 480 240 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 225

POPULATION ≥ 3.8 M / (106/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.1 b / (126/25)

GDP ≥ USD 843 M / (128/26) GDPpc ≥ USD 222 / (128/26)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 279 / (107/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 126 % (3/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 237.26 M / 228.33 b (0.1%)
Total Exports: 237.26 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

1988
2771 (5.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.55 b / 2.79 T (0.06%)
Total Exports: 1.55 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

2320 (39%)

6672 (24%)

7932 (41%)

6672 (20%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2815 (12%)

2816 (6.1%)
7932 (13%) 7933 (4.3%) 2472 (4.1%)

2320 (9.2%)

2472 (9%)

2232 0711

0721

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.06 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.06 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
3330 (25%) Crude petroleum 9710 (1.3%)

7932 (42%) Ships & boats

5225 6672 (0.71%) 2815 2882 2320 (25%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 2820

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

226 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lIbYa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.304 / (119/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.99% / (120/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.986 0.988 0.99 0.992 0.994

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
9.3 k 7.4 k 5.5 k 3.7 k 1.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 227

POPULATION ≥ 6.3 M / (86/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 59 b / (50/7)

GDP ≥ USD 93 b / (58/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,802 / (39/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,326 / (26/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (18/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.96 b / 228.33 b (0.86%)
Total Exports: 1.96 B / 228.33 B (0.86%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.20 b / 2.79 T (0.26%)
Total Exports: 7.20 B / 2.79 T (0.26%)

3330 (100%)

3330 (92%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5111

5621 3352 5834 5121

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 58.72 b / 15.56 T (0.38%) Total Exports: 58.72 B / 15.56 T (0.38%)

3330 (96%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

228 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lIthUaNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.683 / (36/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.76% / (47/18)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.6 0.65 0.7

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -5 0 5 10 x 10
-3

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
7.1 k 5.6 k 4.2 k 2.8 k 1.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 229

POPULATION ≥ 3.4 M / (111/22) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 24 b / (64/13)

GDP ≥ USD 47 b / (73/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,034 / (40/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,087 / (34/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 50 % (29/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
8439 (2.6%) 8423 (1.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.35 b / 4.30 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 1.35 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

2001
2881 6841 7599 (2.5%) (0.97%) 6794 6831 (1%) 6821 (1.3%) 6899 2820 (5.7%) 7523 (2%) 7761 (1.5%) 7522 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.80 b / 5.90 T (0.06%)
Total Exports: 3.80 B / 5.90 T (0.06%)

8435 8451 6584 8462 (1.5%) 8434 8424 (1.5%)

6517 6544 6522

2882 (2.4%)

8439 (3%)

8435 (1.4%) 8462 (1.3%) 8459 (1.4%) 8424 6584 (1.2%)

6542 6517 6534 6544 6521

7810 (8.1%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5621 (3.6%)

0224 (6.6%)

8441 8431 8429 8472 2651 6519 2890 (3.2%) 6534 8421 8442 6521 8459 6542 5922 (3.3%) 2482 (3.4%) 2471 (1.8%) 6612 5621 (6.4%) 0240 8219 (1.6%) 2472 2483 7752 0342 6342 6416 6343 5629 (3%)

8423 (1.9%) 8431 (1.8%)

0819 (2.5%) 7761 (3.4%) 7768 7932 7938 7921 7931 5629 (2.1%) 5831 5834 7923

6712 (1.5%) 6725 6744 (1.4%) 6727 6733 3224

8451 (1.4%) 8434

8219 (3.6%)

8463 3510 (1.5%) 7752

8429 2690 2483 (1.3%) 6353 8212 6343 0371 6416 0240 (2.9%) 7518 0224 (1.9%) 0230 6114 2111 6113 03440342 6130

8931 (2%) 0412 2226 1222 (1.4%) 0730 3413 (2%) 6421 2882 6612 2890 2820 (1.1%) 3224

2482 (2.4%)
0545 0585 2631 2226

6114 (1.2%) 2111

6113 2112

0011 (1.7%) 0371

8211 6359 2471

7731 (2.3%)

0546 0586

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 23.79 b / 15.56 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 23.79 B / 15.56 T (0.15%)
7731 (1.4%) 7861 Electric wire (1.2%) 7752 (0.72%) 2483 (0.71%) 6911 (1.1%) Iron/steel structures 3510 6359 (1%) 2472 7414 6997 2482 8212 6618 0111 (0.87%) Bovine meat 0114 0011 7821 (1.7%) Trucks & vans 6940 7224 8121 7211 7219 7492 (1.1%) 0545 (1.6%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables 7938 (1.3%) Special floating structures 5823 (4.6%) Polyesters 2820 (1.8%) Iron & steel waste 8931 (2.3%) Closable plastic packing 0579 (1.1%) 0730 (0.7%) Fresh or dried fruit 0980 (0.69%) N.E.S. 8463 (1.1%) 8459 (0.59%) 8431 8424 6589 8435 8433 0013 5922 0371 (1.2%) 0574 (1%) Fresh apples 0544 0612 4239 1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes 0240 (2.6%) Cheese & curd 0224 0223 0412 (2.7%) Other wheat 2226 & meslin, unmilled

8219 (5.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6353 (2.1%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

8211 (1.6%) Chairs & seats

0344 (0.48%)

5629 (6%) Fertilizers

5621 (5.9%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

8439

7832 (0.91%) 8710 (2%) Optical instruments 0819 (1.7%) Animal feed and food waste 5334 5831 (0.82%) 7611 (1.3%) 5834 6770

6635 5921

3224 5825

2890

5225 3354

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

230 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MaCeDoNIa, fYR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.018 / (62/20) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.84% / (42/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.9 k 1.5 k 1.1 k 760 380 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 231

POPULATION ≥ 2 M / (121/25) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.8 b / (104/22)

GDP ≥ USD 9.5 b / (112/24) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,663 / (71/19)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,857 / (62/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (47/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 956.95 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 956.95 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

2001
6821 (5.6%) 6822

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.12 b / 5.90 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 1.12 B / 5.90 T (0.02%)

8441 (8.4%)

8439 (2.6%) 8431 (2.4%)

6584 (2.3%)

2666 6716 (5%) 6513 6521 6583 6516 6517 6744 (2.1%) 6954 (1%) 6785 7731 (2.7%) 7758

8441 (6.4%)

8510 (3.1%)

8459 (1.9%) 8462 (1.8%) 6584 8421 (1%) 8422 6123 8429

6861 (5%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

1211 (4.5%)

8429 (2%)

8431 (2.6%)
6841 (3%) 6861

8510 (3.6%) 8435 (2.8%)

8424 (1.6%) 6123 8451 8434 (1.1%) 8423 (1.4%) 6552 8462

8435 (5.9%)

8423 (1.8%) 8424 (1.8%)

6851 (1.1%) 2875 1121 (2.8%)

6612 (1.3%) 2871

1222 (2.6%) 0544 5417 (2.3%)

2731 2483 (1.1%) 6842 2924 8211 6114 (1.2%) 2111 8483 5221 5233 2116 6113 0112 2665

0586 (13%)

8421 6589 8433 1121 (2.2%) 0546 (1.6%)

8439 (3.7%) 8434 6744 (8.3%) 6749 (3.7%)

0545 0565 0980 0730 6911

6552 8463 6783 (1.6%) 6746 (1.6%)

1110 7731 (2.8%)

5629 0112 (1.2%) 8483 6935

5834

0561 (1%) 0585 0579 1211 (3.3%) 0545 0980 0589

6716 (2.8%) 6727 6733 6842

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.79 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.79 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
6744 (11%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets 8441 (3.7%) Men's undershirt 8435 (3.5%) Blouses 2874 (2.2%) Lead ore 1121 (1.9%) Wine 0545 (1.2%)

6716 (12%) Ferro-alloys

2875 (1.4%) Zinc

2882

2731 0484 (0.86%) 0565 0980

8439 (3.4%) Other women outerwear

6998 2871 (1.6%) Copper 6612 (0.55%) 8973 1211 (3.4%) Unstripped tobacco 6911 (1.4%) Iron/steel structures 6633 (1%) Non ceramic mineral materials 7731 (0.69%) N.E.S. 2820 (1.9%) Iron & steel waste 6732 (1%) Iron/steel rods 0579 0620

8459 (2.4%) Other knitted outerwear

8431 (2.2%) Women's coats & jackets

8510 (2%) Footwear

6783 (4%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

6749 (3.5%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

6727 (3.3%) Iron/steel coils 8423 (1.9%) Men's trousers 6746 (1.9%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets 8462 (0.87%) 6123 (0.81%) 8434 8424 8463 8433 6584 8429 0544 (0.97%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes 5417 (2%) Medicaments 0575 4236 8939

6624 8212 0112 (0.58%) 0372

7932 (1.3%)

7758

6785

6623 (0.6%)

5335

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

232 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MaDaGasCaR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.594 / (90/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.03% / (34/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
140 112 84 56 28 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 233

POPULATION ≥ 19 M / (50/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 b / (119/23)

GDP ≥ USD 9.4 b / (113/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 493 / (121/19)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 87 / (124/22) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (106/19)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (31%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 139.57 M / 228.33 b (0.06%)
Total Exports: 139.57 M / 228.33 B (0.06%)

1988
0422 (9%) 0149 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 317.31 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 317.31 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0752 (27%)

0611 0360 (14%) (1.7%) 0721 (1.6%)

0111 (1.9%) 0011 2221 (1.2%) 2111 2119 2782 (1.6%) 0542 (2.1%) 2923 (1.8%) 0751 (1.6%) 0611 0615 2924 (1.7%) 0548 0812 0573 (1.7%) 0721 2785 0564 6597 (0.88%)

2654 (2.6%) 0752 (19%) 0612 (7%) 5513 (4.4%)

0360

0711 (27%)

0751 (2.7%)

2654 2782 (3.5%) (1.4%) 0577 (0.97%) 2785 2631 6521 (5.4%) 5513 (1.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2879 (4.3%)

0612 0615 2924

0579 (1.7%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.67 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.67 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
0360 (8.2%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0371 (2.2%) Fish N.E.S.

8423 (19%) Men's trousers

8451 (13%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

0752 (5.5%) Spices other than pepper

0711 (1%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0542

0721 (1.1%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 5513 (0.97%)

8439 (12%) Other women outerwear

8435 (4.2%) Blouses

8462 (1.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 8433 8463

8441 (1.5%) Men's undershirt 7924 (4.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons 8429 6575 0586 (0.93%) 0565 6421 8928 (1.6%) Printed matter N.E.S. 2879 (2.2%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6673 2482 8851 8998

8459 (2.4%) Other knitted outerwear

8471 (2.2%) Clothing accessories of textile fabrics

8997 8424

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

234 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MalaWI
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.024 / (106/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.27% / (70/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
62 49.6 37.2 24.8 12.4 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 235

POPULATION ≥ 15 M / (56/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 926 M / (128/26)

GDP ≥ USD 4.1 b / (125/23) GDPpc ≥ USD 274 / (127/25)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 62 / (126/24) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (88/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0741 (39%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 55.56 M / 228.33 b (0.02%)
Total Exports: 55.56 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

1988
0440 (16%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 241.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 241.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

1212 (52%)

0741 (13%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6521

2221
0548 (11%) 2221 (21%) 2634 (2.3%) 2631 (2%) 0542 (4.8%)

0577 6522 8462

0611 (8.4%)

0711 (3.6%) 1211 (8.8%)

0612 (2.5%)

0542 8423 (1.6%) 2111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 926.04 M / 15.56 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 926.04 M / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1212 (18%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco 0741 (4.2%) Tea 6552 (2.1%) Non synthetic knitted fibres

1211 (49%) Unstripped tobacco

8451 (1.2%) 2631 (2.5%) Raw cotton 0577 8429 8471

2221 0611 (5.8%) Raw sugar beet & cane

7923 (4.8%) Aircrafts of between 2 and 15 tons

2224 (1.8%) Sunflower seeds

0542 (1.8%) Dried or shelled legumes 7861 0751 0711 0615 2483 5541

0440 (1.5%) Unmilled maize

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

236 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MalaYsIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.759 / (34/7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.32% / (20/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.8

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
7.4 k 5.9 k 4.4 k 2.9 k 1.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 237

POPULATION ≥ 27 M / (40/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 199 b / (20/6)

GDP ≥ USD 222 b / (38/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,212 / (52/7)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,366 / (32/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 90 % (7/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.75 b / 228.33 b (0.77%)
Total Exports: 1.75 B / 228.33 B (0.77%)

1988
2483 (5.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 25.96 b / 2.79 T (0.93%)
Total Exports: 25.96 B / 2.79 T (0.93%)

2320 (46%)

2472 (16%)

7764 (13%)

7622 (2.5%)

7763 (1.9%)

7649 (1.8%)

2472 (12%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2483 (4.8%)

7611 (1.5%) 7768 (1.4%)
6871 (19%) 0589 (1.6%)

7415 7638 7712

7628 6342 (1.4%) 3330 (11%) 8459 (0.91%) 8441 4313 (1.6%) 6871 (1.5%)

8482 2320 (13%)

7621 4242 (6%)

4312 0589 0360

2873 4242 4243 2232 0360

0721 (1.8%)

4244 (1.2%) 0723

3413 (4.8%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 198.85 b / 15.56 T (1.28%) Total Exports: 198.85 B / 15.56 T (1.28%)
7522 (4.8%) Digital data processing machines 7528 (3.8%) Data processing equipment N.E.S. 4242 (11%) Palm oil 3413 (11%) liquified hydrocarbons

7599 (9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7525 (3.2%) Control & peripheral hardware

7768 (2.7%) 8482 (1.8%) Parts N.E.S. of Clothing electronic circuits accessories from rubber

7643 (1.7%) Television & radio transmitters

7611 (1.4%) Color T.V. 2320 (2%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 7641 (1.2%) 8219 (1.6%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6342 (1.5%) Sheets of plywood 4244 0723 (0.59%) 8973 (1.2%) 8748 (1%) 5137 Electrical measuring & controlling 5112 instruments6871 5138 N.E.S. 5831 (0.96%) 5621 5541 6210 (0.95%) 7853 4312 (1.5%) Hydrogenated oils 4313 (1.1%) 6998

7638 (1%) 7763 (2.7%) Diodes & 7649 (2%) transistors Parts of telecom & sound 7722 recording (0.96%) equipment

7788 (0.99%)

7628 7621

7781 7622

7415 (0.93%)

7757 7761 2483 (0.94%) 2472 Worked wood of non-coniferous 6911

8931 (0.93%) 0914 Closable plastic packing 5823 5833 0360 6514 0224

7721 (2.3%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

8749 7758

6822 (1.2%) 6783 Worked copper & copper alloys

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

238 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MalI
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.103 / (110/17) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.87% / (95/18)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.945 0.95 0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97 0.975

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
150 120 90 60 30 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 239

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (60/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.9 b / (115/19)

GDP ≥ USD 8.7 b / (116/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 686 / (118/17)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 152 / (118/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 22 % (91/17)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (34%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.89 M / 228.33 b (0.01%)
Total Exports: 11.89 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

1988
2631 (75%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 112.69 M / 2.79 T (0.004%)
Total Exports: 112.69 M / 2.79 T (0.004%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0011 (31%)

2114 (2.5%) 2111 (2.5%)

2119 (1.9%)

2116 (1.3%)

7144 (5.5%)

2223 (11%)

2221 (8.8%) 0012 0350 (5.5%) 0015 2111 2119 2114

0579 (2.8%)

6672 (1.4%) 8960

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.93 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.93 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
2631 (11%) Raw cotton

9710 (79%) Gold, non-monetary

0011 (4.4%) Live bovines

0012

7821

7234

5629 (0.92%) Fertilizers 0579

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

240 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MaURItaNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.907 / (128/26) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.29% / (128/26)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98 0.985 0.99

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
610 488 366 244 122 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 241

POPULATION ≥ 3.2 M / (113/22) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2 b / (114/18)

GDP ≥ USD 3.6 b / (127/25) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,116 / (106/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 610 / (90/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 55 % (23/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 87.45 M / 228.33 b (0.04%)
Total Exports: 87.45 M / 228.33 B (0.04%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 435.68 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 435.68 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

0350 (60%)

2922 (27%)

0360 (50%)

2815 (40%)

0615 (8.4%)

2789 (4.3%)

0342 (6.1%)

0350 0341

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.96 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.96 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
3330 (18%) Crude petroleum 0360 (12%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

2815 (42%) Not agglomerated iron ore

0342 (9.8%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 2871 (6.9%) Copper 9710 (6.5%) Gold, non-monetary

2816 (3.5%)
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0814

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

242 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MaURItIUs
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.307 / (77/5) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.22% / (73/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 243

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (128/26) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.4 b / (111/16)

GDP ≥ USD 9.3 b / (114/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,337 / (54/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,915 / (60/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (80/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0611 (89%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 73.47 M / 228.33 b (0.03%)
Total Exports: 73.47 M / 228.33 B (0.03%)

1988
0615 (5.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.02 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 1.02 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

8451 (18%)

8441 (7.5%)

0611 (33%)

8462 (5%)
0612 (2.8%)

8423 (4.1%)

8471 (2.9%) 8463 (2.2%)

8459 (1.7%)

8439 (3.7%)
0741 (1.1%)

8435 (1.5%) 8422 6584 8472 0615 8465 8851 (3.4%) 8452 8434 8431

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0612 6672 (1.8%)

0741 8973 0371 (1.3%) 8942 8720

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.45 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.43 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
0611 (15%) Raw sugar beet & cane 0371 (11%) Fish N.E.S.

8462 (20%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8441 (6.4%) Men's undershirt

8451 (3.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8463 (2.6%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8459 (2.2%) Other knitted outerwear

0342 (3.1%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

7643 (4.2%) Television & radio transmitters

6672 (2%) Not mounted diamonds

8423 (4.2%) Men's trousers

8439 (1.5%) Other women outerwear 8452 (0.73%) 8435 (0.73%) 8465

8481

6552 8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery 8852 6783 2871

9410 (1.8%) Live animals, N.E.S. (zoo animals, pets, insects, etc) 2820 8972

8931

5121 0819 (0.63%) 8921 5541 5629 6649 6912

8464

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

244 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MeXICo
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.145 / (20/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.50% / (10/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5 0.78 0.79 0.8 0.81

-0.5 0 5 10 15 x 10
-3

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.7 k 2.1 k 1.6 k 1k 540 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 245

POPULATION ≥ 106 M / (11/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 291 b / (16/1)

GDP ≥ USD 1.1 T / (13/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,248 / (44/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,736 / (52/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (77/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (7.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.48 b / 228.33 b (0.65%)
Total Exports: 1.48 B / 228.33 B (0.65%)

1988
0011 (5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 31.57 b / 2.79 T (1.13%)
Total Exports: 31.57 B / 2.79 T (1.13%)

0544 (4.9%)

6851 (2%)

2783 6811 (5.7%) (1.9%)

7810 (8%)

7132 (4%)

3330 (26%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6811 (1.8%) 6861 6612 2783 2871 2741

0612 (6.2%)

2929 0615 (1.4%) (1.1%) 0542 0422 0440 (2.8%) 0459 5513 2632 0611 (1%) 2654 0571 2634

2785 (1.9%)

2875 (1.7%) 6861

0111 (2.6%) 0360 (6%)

0616

7721 (2.7%) 7162 6991 8743 7783 7169 7139 7434 6647 6782 7239 7599 (1.7%) 7788 (1.5%) 7621 (2.3%) 7611 (2.1%) 8942 7763 8983 7781 0711 (2%) 7415 7757 7723 0544 0612 7712 7731 (5.4%) 6428 0545 (1.4%) (0.89%) 6349 0579 0585 0611 5138

7849 (4.4%)

2631 (16%)

2741 (6.2%)

7649 (3.6%)
0545 (2.1%) 0586 (1.6%) 5415 (1.7%) 8942 7788 5224 6783 6953 5981 6575 (0.84%) 6354 6513

1123 0360 (1.5%) 1124 0011 (1.1%)

0579 8921 5221 6349 (1.2%) (0.92%) 6624

8720 5834 8423 5222 6514

2631 0575 5137 2331

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 291.28 b / 15.56 T (1.87%) Total Exports: 291.28 B / 15.56 T (1.87%)
7821 (3.2%) Trucks & vans 7721 (2.6%) 7139 Switchboards, relays & fuses 3330 (19%) Crude petroleum 9710 (1.2%)

7810 (9.2%) Cars

2882 7783 (0.98%) Auto parts 7849 (5%) Other vehicles parts 7162 (0.81%) 7132 (0.74%) 7611 (9.6%) Color T.V. 7649 (2.2%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 8743 7239 6991 7436 7832 7431 7758 7784 7523 (1.7%) CPUs 7711 (0.79%) 7731 (3.1%) Electric 8211 (1.3%) wire Chairs & seats 7752 0545 (0.93%) Other fresh or chilled 8931 vegetables 0579 1123 6811 (0.74%)

7788 (1.6%) Other electrical machinery & equipment 6725 N.E.S. (0.89%) 7641 7621 7149 8720 (1.7%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

7414

1124 0544

8942

5138

5530 8423 (0.67%)

7643 (3.9%) Television & radio transmitters 7415 8124 7915

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

246 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MolDova
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.266 / (50/18) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.95% / (5/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
440 352 264 176 88 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 247

POPULATION ≥ 3.6 M / (108/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 b / (122/24)

GDP ≥ USD 6.1 b / (118/25) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,696 / (97/24)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 440 / (99/23) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (79/19)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
6725 (18%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 212.25 M / 4.30 T (0.005%)
Total Exports: 212.25 M / 4.30 T (0.005%)

2001
8423 8421 0585 (6.1%) (1.1%) 8439 6594 8422 8443 1121 (2.3%) 5121 2111 2116 (0.95%) 2112 6114 0224 8921 5514 2820 6595 6413 0546 6421 8424 6522 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 577.52 b / 5.90 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 577.52 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

6731 (5%)

8431 (2.5%) 8510 (2.2%) 6584 (2.1%)

1121 (29%)

8431 (2.7%) 8439 (2.3%) 8429 (1.4%) 8423 8422 8451 8310 8510 8421 8424 6594 0224 (1.2%) 2111

8459 (1.9%) 2224 (3.8%) 8462 (1.9%) 0440 6589 8463 8434 6596 8452 8435 0577 (3.4%) 8432 7422 (1.1%) 7223 7129 6651 (2.3%) 1211 (4.5%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

4236 0430 (1.5%) 2239 0412 (0.81%) 0612 (1.5%) 2925 (1.2%) 0574 2732 8742 6353

7822 (4.2%) 6521 (1.4%) 6712 (2.1%) 0612 (7.6%) 6724 (1.2%) 6733 0611 (3.3%) 7371 1211 (1.3%) 4236 2224 6618 (1.5%) 5513 0577 6415 6996 6732 3510 (6.3%)

0111 (3.3%)

2882 (3.6%)

0585 (4.5%)

0565 (1.5%)

0111 (1.1%) 0149

1124

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.60 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)
8451 (1.5%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8310 (1.5%) Luggage & handbags 6123 (1%) 6594

Total Exports: 1.60 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1121 (11%) Wine 7731 (6.8%) Electric wire

8459 (2.8%) Other knitted outerwear

8510 (2.2%) Footwear

8429 (1.4%) Other men outerwear 8423 (1.3%) Men's trousers 8463 (0.76%) 8441

8431 (2.2%) Women's coats & jackets

8439

8462 (2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8424 (0.9%)

8435

8433 8421

0565 0585 (1.3%) Prepared or preserved vegetables 1124 (2.6%)

8931 (0.8%)

0980 (0.72%)

8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6911

6624 8212

0579 (0.75%) 0583 8211 2732 (4.1%) Gypsum, plasters, limestone flux & calcareous stone

6921 6996

4236 (3.2%) Sunflower seed oil

2226 (2.6%) Rape & colza seeds

0577 (2.8%) Edible nuts

6731 (3.1%) Iron/steel wire rod

6651 (2.9%) Glass bottles

6595 (1.3%)

0430 (2.3%) Unmilled barley

0813 (1.1%) Oilcake 0412

0574 (1.7%) Fresh apples

7239 0612 6991 (0.82%) Refined sugar 8731 (1.2%)

7491 6975 8741 2882 (0.99%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6998 8742 0224 8939 6210 6114

2224 (1.5%) Sunflower seeds

4232 (0.6%) 2222

0440

1222 (0.79%) 1211

5513

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

248 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MoNGolIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.166 / (113/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.52% / (107/14)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.92

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
780 624 468 312 156 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 249

POPULATION ≥ 2.6 M / (118/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.1 b / (113/15)

GDP ≥ USD 5.3 b / (121/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,991 / (93/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 776 / (83/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (49/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.32 M / 228.33 b (0.002%)
Total Exports: 4.32 M / 228.33 B (0.002%)

1988
2685 (11%) 2120 (7.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 89.77 M / 2.79 T (0.003%)
Total Exports: 89.77 M / 2.79 T (0.003%)

2683 (75%)

2683 (33%)

6114 (3.2%) 2919 (2.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8481 (4.6%) 6123 (1.8%) 8451 2690 8459

6583 6542 6516 6592

2111 (1.9%)

2114 6116 2871 (5.4%)

6594 8484 2789 (2.4%) 2872 (1.5%) 6595 5232

8483 (3.9%)

0113 (1.5%) 0115

2682 (1.8%) 2681 (1.5%)

2911 (1.7%)

2687 (9%)

2681 (2%) 2686 (0.9%)

2120 (6.1%)

2879 (2.4%) 2482 (3.1%)

2631

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.05 b / 15.56 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 2.05 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
3222 (13%) Other coal 2683 (3.6%) Fine animal hair

2871 (45%) Copper

9710 (9.3%) Gold, non-monetary

2687 0115 0111

2919 2815 (7.6%) Not agglomerated iron ore 2875 (3.8%) Zinc 8451 (1.8%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8439 (0.6%) 7938

2785 (3.6%) Quartz metal family 2879 (5.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6821 (1.3%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

250 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

MoRoCCo
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.400 / (83/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.60% / (56/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
640 512 384 256 128 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 251

POPULATION ≥ 32 M / (36/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 20 b / (66/11)

GDP ≥ USD 89 b / (60/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,769 / (87/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 645 / (89/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (87/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0544 (7.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 436.31 M / 228.33 b (0.19%)
Total Exports: 436.31 M / 228.33 B (0.19%)

1988
2713 (15%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.24 b / 2.79 T (0.15%)
Total Exports: 4.24 B / 2.79 T (0.15%)

0541 (2.3%)

2713 (33%)

5222 (13%)

0571 (7.3%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0544 (2%)

0541 0542

2929 (1.5%) 0542 (4.9%) 2440 0752 0459 (2.3%) 2874 (3.4%) 6851 (1.4%) 2631 (1.2%) 0577 (0.88%) 5513 2875 2789 2877 (1.6%) 2879 0565 (1.8%) 0589 0585 0561 0546 2517 6592 8310 1121 (2.3%) 0545 (2%) 6118 2919 (0.94%) 0814

0430 5629 (3.8%) 5622 (3.2%) 0360 (6.3%)

2924 2631

0371 (2.9%)

0571 (17%)

8423 (3.4%) 8459 (2.6%)

8510 8451 8434 8431 (1.5%) (0.97%) 8435 8421 8429 8481 8462 (1.2%) (1.2%) 6123 8452 8424 8310 6584

6592 (1.7%)

0341 (1.2%)

0342 (0.86%)

8439 (2.3%)

8441 (1.6%)

6513 6539

0565 0585 6851 2874 2517 (1.6%) (1.6%) (0.99%) 2785 2789 0546 0545 2871 6811 7763 (1.2%) 6330 7148

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 20.36 b / 15.56 T (0.13%) Total Exports: 20.36 B / 15.56 T (0.13%)
2713 (13%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium 0360 (3.9%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 7731 (8.1%) Electric wire

5222 (16%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

0371 (3.2%) Fish N.E.S.

0341 (0.89%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 0342 0814

5629 (5.1%) Fertilizers

5622 (2.7%) Phosphatic fertilizers 7763 (3.2%) Diodes & transistors 7721 (1.7%) 0545 (1.3%) Switchboards, relays & Other fresh or fuses chilled vegetables 6577 6749 (0.8%) 2882 0544 (1.4%) Fresh or 0571 (2.2%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes dried oranges & m&arines 2929 6123 6899 (0.63%) 6811 2874 2789 0579 0586 0565 (1%) Prepared or preserved vegetables

8439 (3.4%) Other women outerwear

8423 (2.3%) Men's trousers

8510 (1.4%) Footwear

8435 (1.4%) Blouses

8431 (1.3%) 8462 (1.2%) 8433 8463 8465 Women's coats Knitted (0.99%) (0.97%) & jackets undergarments of cotton 8441 (0.69%) 8452 8422 8429 (1.1%) 8451 8434

8459 (1%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

252 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

M0zaMbIqUe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.077 / (109/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (90/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
130 104 78 52 26 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 253

POPULATION ≥ 22 M / (44/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.8 b / (108/15)

GDP ≥ USD 9.9 b / (111/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 441 / (123/21)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 126 / (121/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (71/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 205.11 M / 228.33 b (0.09%)
Total Exports: 205.11 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

1988
4234 6821 (4.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 320.10 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 320.10 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0577 (20%)

0440 (18%)

6725 (7.8%)

6733 (5.4%)

6746 (4.5%)

0577 (6.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0612 (1.7%)

0615 (1.6%)

1211 (1.5%) 1212 (1.1%)
0813 2631 (15%) 0741 (6.6%) 0611 (8%) 2231 (6.1%) 0612 (1.6%) 0615 (1.2%) 4243 2789 2784 6861 2483 2111 (0.99%) 2879 (2%)

6744 (7.2%)

6716 (2.8%)

6749 6783 (1.5%) 6745 (1.1%)

0611 (3.4%) 6821 (3.9%)

0571 (1.5%) 2877 (1.9%) 2517 (1.9%)

0412 4234 2516

0360 (18%)

0342 (2.5%) 2879 2911 (1.1%)

2519 2784 3222 6732 (1.5%) 2472 (1.2%) 2820 (2.9%)

2654 (2.2%)

0542 6575 6716 0571 6581 5322

5629 (2.6%) 5222 5322 (1.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.81 b / 15.56 T (0.02%)

Total Exports: 2.81 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
1212 (6.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco 2631 (2.1%) Raw cotton 2225 (1.3%) Sesame seeds

6841 (60%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

0577 (1.3%)

0611 (3.8%) Raw sugar beet & cane

1211 (1.2%) 3510 (9.3%) Electric current 0360 (2.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

5621 (2%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

7234 (0.75%) 7239 2483 (0.92%)
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2472

2820 (0.79%) Iron & steel waste

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

254 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NaMIbIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.271 / (72/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.56% / (60/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 255

POPULATION ≥ 2.1 M / (120/23) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.7 b / (100/12)

GDP ≥ USD 9 b / (115/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,211 / (74/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,221 / (58/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 53 % (28/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

2001

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.41 b / 5.90 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 1.41 B / 5.90 T (0.02%)

2005
0344 (4.3%) 0012 (2.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.51 b / 9.84 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 2.51 B / 9.84 T (0.03%)

6672 (35%)

0342 (17%)

6672 (31%)

0342 (9.6%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0111 (3.6%)

0111 (2.1%) 0341 (1.7%) 0814 0011 6114 1110 0112

0011 (3%) 0344 (3.3%) 0341 (1.4%) 0371 8928 (9.5%) 5241 (6.4%) 6821 (3.9%) 2783 2785 6861 (2.3%) 0575 (1.1%) 8435 8459 0814 0112 (1.9%) 0360 1123 (3.4%) 6863 (1.9%) 7234 7822 7851 8219 2450 0012 (1.2%)

0360 0371 8928 (12%) 2860 (7.9%) 9710 (1.9%) 2783 2785 2874 0575 0611

1123 (3.4%)

8423

2731 9710

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.73 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.73 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
6861 (6.4%) Unwrought zinc & alloys 8928 (19%) Printed matter N.E.S.

2860 (17%) Uranium & thorium

6672 (18%) Not mounted diamonds

2771

6821 (3.6%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

0342 (8.3%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

0344 (2.2%) Frozen 1123 (2.7%) Beer fish fillets

0341 2875 (1.7%) Zinc 2783 (0.55%) 2731 0111 (2.2%) Bovine meat 9710 (1.3%) Gold, non-monetary
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0814

7821 (0.83%) 7234

7851

0371 0343 0112 (1%)

1212 (1%) Wholly 8219 or partly stripped (0.57%) tobacco 0575 (0.75%) Grapes & raisins

0011 (0.92%)

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

256 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NetheRlaNDs
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.044 / (23/12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.72% / (102/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
33 k 26.4 k 19.8 k 13.2 k 6.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 257

POPULATION ≥ 16 M / (54/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 546 b / (6/3)

GDP ≥ USD 873 b / (16/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 53,076 / (8/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 33,200 / (7/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (20/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2331 (1.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.95 b / 228.33 b (4.36%)
Total Exports: 9.95 B / 228.33 B (4.36%)

1988
7788 (1.3%) 6712 7511 8983

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 114.32 b / 2.79 T (4.09%)
Total Exports: 114.32 B / 2.79 T (4.09%)

5989 (1.7%)

7742 (1.1%) 5137 (1.1%)

5417 (1.7%) 8921 6419 5335 0819 6424

2926 (2.8%)

0723 (1.7%) 2925 6746 (1.4%) 0722 2927 (1.2%) 4243 0541

5112 (2.4%)

5111 (1.3%)

8939 (1.2%)

5417 (1.1%) 5413 5335 5834 5832

0113 (2%)

0240 (2.1%) 0224 (1.8%) 0230 (1%) 0341 5922

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2927 (2.2%)

2926 (2.1%)

0723 2925

5148 (1%) 6871 5415 3345 5155 5161 5162

0544 5414 5629 (1.5%) 5621 (1%) (2%) 5222 3352

0542 0481 1223 0545 (2.8%) 0484 0565 5121 0980 0620

0813 5513 7782 (2.8%) 6731 7271 7938 6672 (1.9%) 3232

8822 5829 0819 (1%) 5334 5113 5161 5824 5137 5831 2331 (1.7%) 5839 5138 8996 5148 5514 5836 5232 5989 (1.5%) 5156 8983 (1.6%) 7518 7832 6418 (0.95%) 7272 7525 7754 7763 6251 (0.84%) 7449 7591 6572

6419 0111 (1.6%) 0114 0013 0251 0149

0544 0541

0813 1222 (0.99%) (1.2%)

0149 (2.7%) 0111 (2.5%) 0224 (3.4%) 0240 (2.6%) 5922 (1.1%) 0230 (1%)

0113 (2.4%)

0114 (2.3%)

2783 1221 4313 3330 3354 1123 0914 0730 0619 6522 (1.4%) 2665 2820 6421 7731 6842 6911 6624 6412 6415 6517 8928 6649 6960 2690 6591

2919 2111

0488 0545 (1.4%) 0565 8931 5121 6842 6412 5621 (0.81%) (0.97%) 0484 0121 1123 6911 0980 6415 (0.81%) 6428 7782 (1.5%) 0730 0619 5823 5833 6514 (1.4%) (1%) 6841 (1.8%) 3414 (2.8%) 6725 6747 5241 2820 8928 6517 6745 7923 2882 6595

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 546.06 b / 15.56 T (3.51%) Total Exports: 546.06 B / 15.56 T (3.51%)
7525 (2.7%) Control & peripheral hardware 7518 (2.7%) Office machines N.E.S. 7284 (2.7%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7832 (2.2%) Tractors for semi-trailers 2926 (1.9%) Live plants 0723 (0.73%) 0545 (1.5%) Other fresh or chilled 4242 (0.68%) vegetables 2925 8741 7429 0813 (0.77%) Oilcake 4236 7441 6746 (0.97%) 6727 Iron/steel <3mm (0.77%) tick sheets Iron/steel 5161 (1.2%) Ethers, coils (1.1%) 0819 epoxides, acetals 7742 (0.9%) 5514 Animal feed and food waste 5334 5831 (1.3%) Polyethylene 5621 (0.75%) 0240 (1.5%) Cheese & curd 7938 0111 (1.1%) Bovine meat 0114 (0.82%) Poultry meat 0149 0251 0224 (0.73%) 0230 0223 0544 0488 0575 5121 (1.3%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives 1123 (0.85%) 8928 4239 4232 1222 (1.4%) Cigarretes 0730 4313 0121 0546 0980 (1.3%) Edible products N.E.S. 0579

7599 (3.7%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7234 7442 (0.73%) 7611 (2%) Color T.V. 7523 (1.6%) CPUs 7638 (1.3%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7641 8942 (1.4%) 5989 (2.3%) 5112 (2%) Chemical products Cyclic hydrocarbons 8996 5111 (1.3%) (1.4%) Orthopaedic appliances 7648 7528 6954 6251 7272 7212 6418 7219

2927 (1.8%) Flora

5542

2820 (1.4%) Iron & 5833 steel waste 6595 5823 (0.82%) 6841 (0.87%) 2882 (0.59%) 6428 5241 2879 6861 6514 2511

0113 (0.88%)

5829 8720 (1.9%) 5839 (1.5%) Medical Other instruments N.E.S. polymerization & 5137 copolymarization products

7741

7852

3352 5138 5834 5221

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

258 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NeW zealaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.287 / (48/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.91% / (93/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
7.2 k 5.7 k 4.3 k 2.8 k 1.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 259

POPULATION ≥ 4.3 M / (104/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 31 b / (60/12)

GDP ≥ USD 118 b / (55/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 27,599 / (26/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,168 / (33/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (81/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0112 (20%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.17 b / 228.33 b (0.51%)
Total Exports: 1.17 B / 228.33 B (0.51%)

1988
2471 (3.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.28 b / 2.79 T (0.33%)
Total Exports: 9.28 B / 2.79 T (0.33%)

0111 (11%)

2681 (15%)

0111 (9.4%)

0112 (9.2%)

2682 (8.2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2517 (1.7%) 6411 (1.1%)

2512 2482 2471 (1.2%) (1.3%) 6413 2519 6416 0545 0980 0730 0546 0574 (2.9%) 7752 5121

2681 (6.3%)
0116 (2%) 4113 2682 (7.2%) 0015 0230 (13%) 0240 (5%) 0224 (4%) 2117 (3.9%) 5922 (2.2%) 2517 0574 2919 (2.2%) 0360 (1.2%) 2925 2111 2112 0814 (0.83%) 6411 (1.7%)

6512 0579 (4.9%)

0015 (1.1%) 0116 0224 (6.3%)

4113 0012 5922 (2.9%) 2117 (3.2%)

2919 (1.6%) 2111 6115

6114 6841 (6.2%)

0230 (5.7%)

0240 (2.5%)

0542

2925 5530

0343 0360 0342 0344 (1.4%) (0.79%) 0341 0814

6749 6594

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 30.59 b / 15.56 T (0.2%) Total Exports: 30.59 B / 15.56 T (0.2%)
0240 (4.9%) Cheese & curd 0579 (3.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S. 1121 (2.8%) Wine 2482 (2.5%) Worked wood of coniferous 2471 (2.2%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of coniferous

0224 (15%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & 0230 (5.2%) Butter cream

5922 (3.6%) Glues

0223 (3%) Fresh milk & cream

0980 (2%) Edible products N.E.S.

0546

6416 (0.73%) 6353 6997

0730 0545 5121 0112 (8.4%) Sheep & goat meat 0111 (5.8%) Bovine meat 0360 (1.6%) Fresh, 0344 chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0814 0342 (1.2%) 6841 (3.6%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 1110 0619 2517 (1.2%) 6413 Chemical wood pulp, soda or 2519 sulphate

9710 (1.7%) 0488 (1.9%) Malt 0574 (1%) extract & cereal Fresh apples preparations containing less than 50% cocoa

2919 0118 (0.99%) Other animal meats 0116 4113 0149 0015 2117

6114

2682 (1.2%) Degreased sheep or lambs wool 2681

6418 7188 6731

7932 (0.98%) Ships & boats 6727

8720 (1.1%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5542

2820 (0.67%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

260 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NICaRaGUa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.661 / (97/19) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.60% / (57/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
460 368 276 184 92 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 261

POPULATION ≥ 5.7 M / (91/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.5 b / (109/20)

GDP ≥ USD 5.9 b / (119/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,035 / (110/21)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 448 / (98/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 43 % (39/3)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (40%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 173.44 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 173.44 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
0111 (10%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 238.78 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 238.78 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (15%)

0711 (42%)

2631 (21%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0111 (8.6%)

0360 (3.6%)

2120 5922

0360 (4.1%) 0573 (14%) 3330 (5.7%)

0612 (1.2%)

0481 0542 2924 2871 (4.8%) 0813 5530 5162 8510 5852 6210 2483 6924 6932

0573 (3.7%) 2223 (2.6%) 4233 (2.4%) 2634 (1.7%) 2632

0611 (2.1%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.54 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.54 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
0542 (3.6%) Dried or shelled legumes 2221 (4.2%) Green groundnuts 0111 (9%) Bovine meat 0360 (5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0341

0711 (13%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0611 (2.3%) Raw sugar beet & cane 0460 0548 4242 8459 (5.8%) Other knitted outerwear 8423 (3.9%) Men's trousers

1211 (0.97%)

0240 (3.1%) Cheese & curd

4234 (0.7%) 2238 8439 (3.6%) Other women outerwear 0011 1221 (3.3%) Cigars 0116 5121 (1.3%) 1110 (0.74%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives 6421 1124 (0.89%) Alcoholic beverages 0484 0545

0224 (2.1%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream

9710 (3.7%) Gold, non-monetary

8435 (4.7%) Blouses

8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8441 (1.2%) Men's undershirt 8451 (0.66%)

8424 8431

7731 (6.4%) Electric wire 2820 (0.67%) 8928 0712 (0.92%) Coffee extracts, essences or 6733 concentrates

8429 (1.3%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

262 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NIGeRIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.418 / (122/21) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.16% / (118/21)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
540 432 324 216 108 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 263

POPULATION ≥ 151 M / (8/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 82 b / (39/1)

GDP ≥ USD 207 b / (41/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,370 / (99/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 542 / (95/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (48/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0721 (23%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 531.08 M / 228.33 b (0.23%)
Total Exports: 531.08 M / 228.33 B (0.23%)

1988
3330 (17%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.55 b / 2.79 T (0.27%)
Total Exports: 7.55 B / 2.79 T (0.27%)

2221 (20%)

3330 (92%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0721 (4%)

2232 (5%)

0723 (2.7%)

2631 (2%) 4234 (5.5%)

2223 2922 (0.8%) 0813 (4.1%)

6871 (6.7%)

2472 (2.5%)

2320 (1%) 0723

2320 (3.2%)

4244 (1.8%)

2483 2114 6118

2119 2116

6116 5621

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 81.97 b / 15.56 T (0.53%) Total Exports: 81.97 B / 15.56 T (0.53%)
7938 (2.1%)

3330 (94%) Crude petroleum

0721 (0.64%) 2320

5530 (0.59%)

5831 (0.64%) 6116 (0.85%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

264 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

NoRWaY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.777 / (33/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.08% / (119/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
37 k 29.6 k 22.2 k 14.8 k 7.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 265

POPULATION ≥ 4.8 M / (98/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 174 b / (26/10)

GDP ≥ USD 451 b / (24/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 94,568 / (1/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 36,492 / (6/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (51/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6841 (15%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.04 b / 228.33 b (0.89%)
Total Exports: 2.04 B / 228.33 B (0.89%)

1988
6412 (2.4%) 2518 (2.3%) 6732 3510 6842 6415 (2%) 6413 2516

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 24.42 b / 2.79 T (0.87%)
Total Exports: 24.42 B / 2.79 T (0.87%)

6831 (5.6%)

6411 (3.9%)

3330 (28%)

3414 (12%)

7932 (3.5%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7938 5629 (2.1%) 5831 (2%) 5822

2512 (3.7%) 6612 (1%) 2742 2731 6998 2785 2789 5225 6861 (1%) 2879 2871

6716 (3.2%)

6911 6633 0350 (3.5%)

5621 (4.8%)

0814 (4.7%)

7442 8741 6411 (2.4%) 6413

6733 5221 5239 6747 5113 (1.7%)

5834 5147 5621 (1.1%) 5331 0350 (1.8%)

7932 (12%)

6716 (5.6%)

0341 (2.9%)

5629 (2.3%) 5239 (1.4%) 6725 7211 6712 6747 6419 8947 6931 (1.6%) 5221 2671 5331 2120 (2.1%) 4312 (1.5%)

2516
4111 0360 (0.97%) 0240 6130 6421

6841 (6.9%)

6891 (1.4%) 2731 2882

6831 (2.6%)

2517 6861 2815 6415 (1.3%) 2512 2890 2879 6842 (1.6%) 5225 2871 3510 6633

0344 (1.4%)

0342 0371 0814 5823

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 174.28 b / 15.56 T (1.12%) Total Exports: 174.28 B / 15.56 T (1.12%)
3414 (28%) petroleum gases 6841 7239 9510 8743 8749

3330 (48%) Crude petroleum

7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

6716

0341 (2.1%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

0342 (1.1%)

0350 (0.72%) 0343

6831

3510

6842 (0.7%) 6911

3413 (3.3%) liquified hydrocarbons

5989 (1%) Chemical products

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

266 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

0MaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.604 / (91/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.44% / (108/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 267

POPULATION ≥ 2.8 M / (115/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 38 b / (56/9)

GDP ≥ USD 60 b / (66/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 21,649 / (29/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,607 / (20/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (19/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 591.67 M / 228.33 b (0.26%)
Total Exports: 591.67 M / 228.33 B (0.26%)

1988
6811 (23%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.01 b / 2.79 T (0.14%)
Total Exports: 4.01 B / 2.79 T (0.14%)

3330 (77%)

3330 (95%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 37.91 b / 15.56 T (0.24%) Total Exports: 37.91 B / 15.56 T (0.24%)
3413 (16%) liquified hydrocarbons 5621 (1.4%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

3330 (75%) Crude petroleum

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5832 (1.1%) Polypropylene

7731 (1.8%) Electric wire

0224 (1.2%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream 4242 5121 (0.72%) 6783

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

268 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PaKIstaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.398 / (82/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.11% / (27/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9

-2 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
120 96 72 48 24 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 269

POPULATION ≥ 166 M / (6/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 20 b / (67/2)

GDP ≥ USD 164 b / (49/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 987 / (112/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 122 / (122/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (119/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 731.88 M / 228.33 b (0.32%)
Total Exports: 731.88 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

1988
6521 (4.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.51 b / 2.79 T (0.16%)
Total Exports: 4.51 B / 2.79 T (0.16%)

2640 (26%)

6513 (8.4%)

6513 (14%)

6592 (5.7%)

6522 (5.2%)

2631 (19%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0615 (2%)

6522 (4%)

6592 (1.1%) 6549

6521 (3.5%)

6534 (2.3%) 0422 (5.7%) 0421 (1.7%) 0360 (1.8%) 0350 2682 8947 (1.6%)

2929 (1.2%)

2631 (15%)

6545 (9.9%)

6581 (8.4%)

8510 2633

6584 (5.6%)

8462 (2.3%)

6531 6589

8435

6118 (3.7%) 0422 (3.9%) 2634 (1.3%) 6113 6114 2919

0360 (1.3%)

0350 8947 (0.76%) 2911 2681 2682

8439 (1.9%) 8481 (3.4%) 8441

6116 6114 8423 8459 (2.3%) (2.2%) 8424 8472 8463 6560 8442 6113 (1.5%) 6115

1222 0579

8720 6582 (1.3%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 20.30 b / 15.56 T (0.13%) Total Exports: 20.30 B / 15.56 T (0.13%)
8481 (4.2%) Clothing 8423 (3.9%) Men's accessories from leather trousers 8462 (3.8%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 0422 (14%) Semi or wholly milled rice 0615

6584 (12%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

0612

8459 (3.1%) Other knitted outerwear

8439 (1.7%) Other women outerwear

8510 (0.73%) 6552 8451 6612 (3.2%) Cement 8947 (1.3%) Sporting goods 7281 (0.65%)

0571

8429 6589 (4.7%) Other textile articles N.E.S. 8472 (1.8%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics 6522 (8.5%) Finished cotton woven fabrics 6513 (6.8%) Cotton yarn 8464 (1.2%) null 8471 8424 8463

6783

6521 (4%) Unbleached cotton woven fabrics

8973 (1.3%) 2879 6116 (1.2%) Leather 0342 of other hides or skins 0360 6114 0341 (0.76%)

4312

0579

5121 (1.2%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives 6582 6960

6534 (1.3%) 6592 (1%) <85% Knotted discontinuous carpets synthetic woven fabrics * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8720 (1.5%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 3352

5823 (1.1%) Polyesters

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

270 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PaNaMa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.831 / (30/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.58% / (9/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 271

POPULATION ≥ 3.4 M / (110/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.8 b / (99/17)

GDP ≥ USD 23 b / (92/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,821 / (57/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,421 / (70/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (96/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 162.06 M / 228.33 b (0.07%)
Total Exports: 162.06 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

1988
5417 (5.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.99 b / 2.79 T (0.07%)
Total Exports: 1.99 B / 2.79 T (0.07%)

0573 (50%)

5415 (7.4%)

7932 (38%)

0573 (24%)

5413 (2.8%) 5155 (1.6%) 5162 5137 8822

8921 (1.1%) 5530

0360 (8.9%)

7938 (1.6%) 8851 (1.3%) 7933 8942 6960 8960

0360 (5.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6672 (4.6%)

6673 8973 (1.8%) (1%) 9710 2882 8921 5139 5156 5530 5413 0579 8960 (0.92%)

0342 (5.2%)
6842 6673 0980

0341

0611

0721

0814 0111

2820 (1.1%)

7638 (1.4%)

7611 7628 7642

7491 7234

8421 8459 0350 (0.97%) 8462 8439 8451

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.83 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.83 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
7638 (2%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 0342 (3.1%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 0360 (2.1%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0343 (1.6%)

7932 (52%) Ships & boats

7611 (1.9%) Color T.V.

0341 (2.3%) Fresh or chilled 0344 (1.5%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets fish fillets 7415 (1.5%) Air conditioning machines

0579 (6.4%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0545

7642

8983 6421

7621 7641 7234 (1%) Construction & mining machinery 7784 7491 7938
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0573 (2.5%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 7758 7247 8851 (0.64%) 8842

0711 0548

6672 (1.6%) Not mounted diamonds

7752

5416

2820 (0.88%)

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

272 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PaPUa NeW GUINea
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.577 / (124/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.89% / (123/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
880 704 528 352 176 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 273

POPULATION ≥ 6.6 M / (85/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.8 b / (91/13)

GDP ≥ USD 8 b / (117/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,218 / (102/13)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 883 / (80/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 73 % (10/4)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2231 (29%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 53.98 M / 228.33 b (0.02%)
Total Exports: 53.98 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

1988
2472 (5.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.39 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 1.39 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

0711 (25%)

2871 (60%)

0721 (4.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

4242 (3.9%) 2231 (2.3%)

4243 (1.7%) 0711 (11%)
4243 (16%) 0721 (9.9%) 2482 (1.7%) 2483 6341

2472 (12%)

0360

0360 (1.8%) 2320 (4.8%) 2221 0577 2119 (1.7%)

2911 2119

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.81 b / 15.56 T (0.04%)

Total Exports: 5.81 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
2871 (21%) Copper 4242 (8%) Palm oil 0721 (3.2%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

9710 (25%) Gold, non-monetary

4243 (1.3%)

4244

2231 2320

0711 (3.5%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 3330 (22%) Crude petroleum 2472 (9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous 0371 (1.4%) Fish N.E.S.

0342 (0.7%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

274 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PaRaGUaY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.474 / (86/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.50% / (63/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.88 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
770 616 462 308 154 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 275

POPULATION ≥ 6.2 M / (87/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.8 b / (98/16)

GDP ≥ USD 17 b / (98/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,705 / (88/18)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 776 / (84/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (69/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0149 (26%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 54.53 M / 228.33 b (0.02%)
Total Exports: 54.53 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

1988
4244 (5.3%) 2631 (3.5%) 2235 (2.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 826.24 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 826.24 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

5513 (3.9%)

2222 (39%)

2631 (23%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6114 (3.7%)

0813 (3.5%) 0711 (4.9%) 0742 (1.5%) 2222 2472 (13%) 0141 (3.7%) 2111 (2.4%) 6118 2119 (1.9%) (1.2%) 2919 (1.2%) 0115 (2.8%) 2120 (2.1%) 2685 4242 (1.1%) 4243 2483 (5.3%) 0980 (4.7%)

6116 0111 (1.9%) 2483 (3%) 0711 (12%) 1211 6341 3510

5322 (3.6%)

0813 (4.1%)

0742 (2.2%) 5513 4232 (0.83%) 4249

1212 8439 5322 4244 8429

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.84 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.84 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
2225 (2.2%) Sesame seeds 0111 (13%) Bovine meat

2222 (32%) Soya beans

0422 (0.63%) 2631 (0.55%) 0813 (12%) Oilcake 4232 (11%) Soya bean oil 0440 (3.7%) Unmilled maize 0612 (1.1%) 3510 (6.6%) Electric current Refined sugar 0412 (3.3%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0611 (1.2%) Raw sugar beet & cane 4236 (1.8%) Sunflower seed oil 2224 1222
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6114 (1.7%)

2919 2483 (1.2%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 2450 (0.86%) Fuel wood & charcoal

6725

2820

8931

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

276 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PeRU
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.576 / (89/17) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.13% / (79/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 277

POPULATION ≥ 29 M / (37/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 31 b / (59/7)

GDP ≥ USD 129 b / (54/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,477 / (73/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,085 / (75/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 24 % (85/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6821 (23%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 949.54 M / 228.33 b (0.42%)
Total Exports: 949.54 M / 228.33 B (0.42%)

1988
4111

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.00 b / 2.79 T (0.11%)
Total Exports: 3.00 B / 2.79 T (0.11%)

2871 0814 (29%) (4.1%)

6821 (19%)

2871 (6%)

0814 (17%)

2875 (9.4%)
2879 2875 (4.9%) 2874 (4%) 6811 (4%) 0612 (6.7%) 0711 (5%) 2631 (6.4%)

6861 (3.8%)

6811 (3.3%) 0711 (5%) 6513 (2.7%) 6521 6542 2666 8462

2874 (6.2%)
6851 (2.8%) 6861 (2.3%) 0611

6851 (1.1%) 2876 2789

2815 (2.1%) 8973 (2.9%)

2816 (1.4%) 2890 5225

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0612 2631 (1.2%)

2929 0723 2927

6822 5224 6931 5322 5912 6863 0565 (0.86%) 7731

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 31.29 b / 15.56 T (0.2%)

Total Exports: 31.29 B / 15.56 T (0.2%)
0814 (5.3%) Meat and fish flour, not for humans 4111 (1.4%) Fat & oils of marine animals 0360 (0.99%) 0342

2871 (18%) Copper

9710 (21%) Gold, non-monetary

8462 (3%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (1.4%) 8451 Other knitted outerwear 8452

6821 (10%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2879 (4.1%) Other 2875 (4.8%) Zinc non-ferrous base metals

0711 (2.4%) Green & 0751 roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 6811 (2.3%) Unwrought silver 0575 6871 (1.6%) Unwrought tin & alloys 5222 2816

0565 (1.6%) Prepared or preserved vegetables 0579

0545

2874 (3%) Lead ore

6851 (0.98%)

6861 (1%)

2815

6822 (1.5%) Worked copper & copper alloys

2483

5224

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

278 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PhIlIPPINes
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.032 / (59/9) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.50% / (11/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
610 488 366 244 122 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 279

POPULATION ≥ 90 M / (12/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 49 b / (54/11)

GDP ≥ USD 167 b / (48/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,844 / (95/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 545 / (94/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 30 % (66/11)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2231 (15%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.07 b / 228.33 b (0.47%)
Total Exports: 1.07 B / 228.33 B (0.47%)

1988
7764 (14%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.58 b / 2.79 T (0.31%)
Total Exports: 8.58 B / 2.79 T (0.31%)

4243 (8.9%)

2472 (30%)

7599 (3.2%)

7921 4243 (6%)

0573 (5.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2871 (4.6%)

7763 (2.2%) 7788
0611 (2.3%) 0612 (13%) 0615 0577 (3.2%) 2871 (12%) 0813 2655 (1.7%) (1.7%) 8471 8481 0812 0589 0586 (1.1%)

6821 (4.4%) 6716 0711 0612 2483 (3.2%) 2231 2659 0813 0577 2816 (2.4%) 2872 (1.2%) (1.2%) 2655 6342 0360 (4%) 0589 (2.4%) (1.5%) 6341 0371 (1.1%) 0579 (1.2%) 0341 5629 (0.97%) 5222 0585

7648

8439 (2.7%)

8459 (2.1%)

7768 8423 (1.2%) 8463 (1%) 8510 8481

8997 (1.6%) 8462

8465

8433 8441 8431 8421 6584 8452 8471 8435

7731 8851

8211 6353

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 49.20 b / 15.56 T (0.32%) Total Exports: 49.20 B / 15.56 T (0.32%)
7525 (13%) Control & peripheral hardware 7599 (4.3%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7849 (4.8%) 6821 (3.4%) Unwrought Other copper & copper alloys vehicles parts 9710 (0.95%)

7764 (31%) Electronic microcircuits

2872 4243 (2.4%) Coconut oil 0573

2816 0577 (0.56%)

2929 7763 (4.2%) Diodes & transistors 7788 (2.8%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S. 8811 (1.6%) 7731 (2.1%) Electric wire 8459 (1.1%) 8439 (0.71%) 6353 (2.1%) Builders` carpentry & joinery 8431 8463 8441

7522 (3.4%) Digital data processing machines

7712 (2.9%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S.

7649 (1.5%) 7768 (1.4%) Parts of telecom Parts N.E.S. of & sound electronic recording circuits equipment 7641 7415 7722 7591 8841

7721 (1%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 0371 (0.7%)

0589

5231

7929 (0.66%)

0342 5121 2820

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

280 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PolaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.020 / (25/6) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.07% / (30/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.55 0.6 0.65

2 1.5 1

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0.5 0

0.5 0

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
4.5 k 3.6 k 2.7 k 1.8 k 900 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 281

POPULATION ≥ 38 M / (32/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 172 b / (27/2)

GDP ≥ USD 528 b / (18/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 13,857 / (41/9)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,511 / (41/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 33 % (61/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0149 (11%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.03 b / 228.33 b (0.45%)
Total Exports: 1.03 B / 228.33 B (0.45%)

1988
6953 0121 (6%) 6664 6652 0586 0545 0589 6643 (1.9%) 7852 0579 5981 6861 (1.6%) 5232 5239 0819 5629 6612 3232 5148 5155 (0.95%) 5413

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.38 b / 2.79 T (0.41%)
Total Exports: 11.38 B / 2.79 T (0.41%)

0111 (3.3%) 0011 (3%) 2482 (6%)

3222 (16%)

0114 (1.9%) 0118 0230 (2.2%) 5922 (1.8%) 6712 (3.2%) 2120 (1.5%)

0015 (1.1%)

6732 (1.4%)

2483 6416 2460 6841 (2%)

2741 (4.7%)

2919 (1%) 2112 6725 6747 6760 6940 7915 0612 (3.7%) 7914 6724 6745 6731 7919 7491 8942

5621 2783 2732 3352 0482 0611 2925 6522 (2.2%) 6549 2665 0615 0542 0541 4239 (1.1%)

7219 (2.1%) 7783

7284 7413 (1.1%) 7234 (1.1%) 7187 7188

6584

8997

8743 7371 7272 7239

6731

0149 (1.9%) 0111 0114 2482 8219 6732 (1.5%) (1.3%) 0015 0011 (1.3%) 7414 8211 6911 2471 2741 (3.9%) 0118 0344 5922 0224 3510 7731 6997 3221 6612 6811 2742 0360 2120 6652 6643 5225 6861 5417 (3.4%) 0586 0545 7416 6733 (1.9%) 7642 7525 (1.1%) 0585 7528 5232 5231 0546 0579 6822 (1.6%) 0565 8431 8424 8421 6744 0615 (0.85%) 8429 8423 7782 7932 0612 8462 8435 (1.4%) 2226 7119 8441

3232 6821 (3.7%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 171.88 b / 15.56 T (1.1%)
7132 (2.8%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

Total Exports: 171.88 B / 15.56 T (1.1%)
8211 (3%) Chairs & 8219 (2.6%) seats Furniture parts N.E.S. 6911 (1.7%) Iron/steel structures 6732 (0.63%) 6359 (0.62%) 6842 6960

7810 (7%) Cars

7821 (1.6%)

7721 (1.2%) 7831 Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 7758 (0.76%) 8121

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6997 6428 7731 (2.3%) Electric wire 8212 6353

7752 6416 6924

6652

7139 (0.66%) 7849 (5.9%) Other vehicles parts 7492 (0.65%) 7491 7832 7783 6731 7239 7611 (3.9%) Color T.V. 7649 (1.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment 7751 (0.64%) 7781 7522 6725 (0.91%) 6733 (0.89%) 7932 (2.3%) Ships & boats 7436 6991

6415

8939 (1.7%) 5530 (1.6%) 5831 Miscellaneous Perfumery & articles cosmetics of 5832 plastic 5621 5542 6822 (0.7%) 6744 7782 5629

8931 (0.7%) 0980 (0.66%) 0730 0545 6421

0484

0114 (0.66%) 0111 (0.56%) 0240 0350

6210

0585

7711 6252

3232 (1.8%) Coke 6821 (1.4%) 2882 & semi-coke of coal Unwrought 6998 copper & copper 6794 alloys 3222 (0.99%) 6811

2820

1222 (0.65%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

282 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

PoRtUGal
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.696 / (35/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.30% / (69/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0 5 10 x 10 15
-3

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
5.3 k 4.2 k 3.1 k 2.1 k 1k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 283

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (67/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 56 b / (51/15)

GDP ≥ USD 252 b / (36/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 23,708 / (28/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,281 / (39/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 22 % (90/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 816.81 M / 228.33 b (0.36%)
Total Exports: 816.81 M / 228.33 B (0.36%)

1988
6672 (8.4%) 2518 (1.2%) 2516 6652 6416 6973 6343 5417 (1.1%) 5622 5621 (0.91%) 2731 2742 2879 8973 6577 6352 6991 6731 7781 7131 6716

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.38 b / 2.79 T (0.41%)
Total Exports: 11.38 B / 2.79 T (0.41%)

8472 (4.4%)

6575 (3%) 6522 (6.3%)

2517 (3.6%) 5981 (2.7%)

8510 (9.8%)

6584 (4.8%)

2517 (7.1%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2518 6413 5981

1121 (4.4%)

8451 (4.4%) 2482 (1.6%) 7731 (1.6%) 8431 7132 (1.4%) 7499 (1%) 7621 7611 7831 5111 6991 5989 6343 8219 6624 6353 6341

6584 (2.5%)

8510 8471 (1.7%) 6581

6513 (4.2%)

6521 (1.7%) 6592

6351 (1.6%) 2482 (1.4%) 2440 (4.2%)

8459 (4.1%) 8462 (3.4%)

8439 (1.9%) 8429 (1.5%)

6575 8424

6666 (0.92%) 6665

6330 (4.3%)

1121 (12%)

0565 (6.5%)

0546 5112 0371 6613 (1.4%) 0341 0342 6651 2440

8452 6123 8472 8463 8423 (2.7%) 8441 (2%) 8434 8435 6589 6534 6522 6513 6516 6514

6330 (5.7%)

4235 (1.3%) 0577 (1.5%) 6545 (1.3%)

5831 (1.2%) 7781 7711 6644

6613 (1.4%)

6651 0360

6573 3352 2731

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 56.14 b / 15.56 T (0.36%) Total Exports: 56.14 B / 15.56 T (0.36%)
7849 (5.6%) Other vehicles parts 7764 (4.5%) Electronic microcircuits 8510 (4.5%) Footwear 8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 6330 (2.6%) Cork manufactures

7810 (6.6%) Cars

1121 (2.1%) Wine 6584 (1.6%) Linens & furnishing textile articles 7821 (1.9%) Trucks & vans 6251 (1.8%) Tires & pneumatic for cars 7492 (1.1%) Valves 7139 6731 6991 7442 7721 (1.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7161 6647 6522 8939 (1.2%) 5334 Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5831 5834 (0.95%) Polyethylene 6841 2882 6998 2731 5111 (0.89%) Acyclic hydrocarbons 5112 (0.71%) 3352 2871 (1.4%) Copper 6651 (0.93%) 6613 0360 0371 5823 5833 0223 0342 0341 0350 7621 (2.7%) Vehicles radio receivers 8459 (1.2%) 8451 Other knitted outerwear 8423 6575 0565 (0.71%) 4235 8931 0484 0980 6421 1110

7499 (1.3%) Non-electric 7758 parts of machinery 7436 N.E.S. 7731 (2.2%) Electric 8211 (1.8%) 6911 (1.1%) wire Chairs & seats 6624 (0.99%) 6924 (0.61%) 6353

6973 6997

6415

6413

2517 6633 7852 6665

6732 (1.4%) Iron/steel rods

8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6343

1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes

0612

0813

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

284 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

qataR
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.438 / (85/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.90% / (122/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.976 0.978 0.98 0.982 0.984 0.986

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
43 k 34.4 k 25.8 k 17.2 k 8.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 285

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (127/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 55 b / (52/8)

GDP ≥ USD 111 b / (56/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 86,436 / (2/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 43,174 / (5/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 50 % (30/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 334.93 M / 228.33 b (0.15%)
Total Exports: 334.93 M / 228.33 B (0.15%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.26 b / 2.79 T (0.08%)
Total Exports: 2.26 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

3330 (100%)

3330 (75%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5831 (5.1%)

5111 (2.6%)

3345 (1.5%)

5621 (2.7%) 6732 (4.8%)

6731 (2.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 55.34 b / 15.56 T (0.36%) Total Exports: 55.34 B / 15.56 T (0.36%)
3413 (45%) liquified hydrocarbons 5831

3330 (50%) Crude petroleum

5113

5161

6727

5121
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

286 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RoMaNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.936 / (27/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.39% / (16/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 287

POPULATION ≥ 22 M / (45/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 50 b / (53/9)

GDP ≥ USD 200 b / (43/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,300 / (49/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,306 / (56/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (84/21)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2482 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 558.90 M / 228.33 b (0.24%)
Total Exports: 558.90 M / 228.33 B (0.24%)

1988
0440 (2.7%) 6841 (4.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.26 b / 2.79 T (0.22%)
Total Exports: 6.26 B / 2.79 T (0.22%)

2483 (9.2%)

4236 (4.8%)

7491 (1.7%) 7234 (1.6%)

6731 (1.3%) 7452 6782 7162

6744 (5.7%)

8510 (2.7%) 8431 (2.1%)

8429 (1.5%) 8439 (1.4%) 8441 8463

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5621 (6.9%)

0542 (2%) 2472 0111 (8%) 6343 0011 (4%) 2460 6351 0113 0230 (1.5%) 6724 2331 2919 (1.2%) (0.94%) 3345 2682 0240 0149 (1.2%) 0913 0012 (0.93%) 0116 0114 6712 (3%)

0544 0460 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0577 6612 (3%) 0575

7361 7822

6733 (1.9%) 6259 7782 6732 (1.4%) 2482 7752

6783 6746 6749 7915 (1.1%) 7522

8451 8423 8459 8421

5629 (2.6%)

7932 (2.1%) 7491 5232 (1.4%) 5239

7915 0586 0561 0579 5621 (1.2%) 3351

0545 0565

6760 7919 7842 7224 7187 8219 (7.3%)

5232 (1.5%)

8424 8462 8434 8435 8997 8472 6584 8432

5834 (1.9%) 3345 5831 0113 0149 0545 0579 5121 2665 7912 0440

0121 6421 8510 (2.1%) 6522 (1%) 8997 6592

8211 (2.8%)

6342

2483 6652 (0.9%) (1%) 8422 6842 6643 6841 (6.8%) (0.87%) 6997 2481 6416 6343 6359 3510 6413

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 49.60 b / 15.56 T (0.32%) Total Exports: 49.60 B / 15.56 T (0.32%)
7491 (1.7%) Roller bearings 6782 (1.4%) NULL 7731 (7.7%) Electric wire 8219 (2.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 8510 (3.7%) Footwear 8423 (1.4%) 8439 Men's (1.2%) trousers

7849 (6.3%) Other vehicles parts

7431 (1.5%) Air pumps, vacuum pumps & compressors 7758 (0.94%) 7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 (2%) Tires & pneumatic for cars

7239 (1.1%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts 7783 N.E.S. 7369

6123 (1.1%) 8431 (1.1%) 8435 8462 (0.57%) 8433 8451 (0.9%) 8441 8429 8434 8463 6589

7132 7162 7493

8211 (1.9%) Chairs & seats

2482

2483

6997 (0.73%) 6353

6744 (2.4%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

6727 (1.9%) Iron/steel coils

6746 (0.98%)

7643 (1.7%) Television & radio transmitters 7525 7712 8947

6842 (1.5%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 5831 5834

3510

6911 6416

7752 6343

7414

8459

6783

5621 (1.9%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

0412 (1.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2224

7932 (3%) Ships & boats

7915 (1.1%) Not mechanically propelled railway for freight 7931

6210 (0.55%) 5829 8742 5629 5232

2226 (0.99%) Rape & colza seeds 0430

2820 (2.7%) Iron & steel waste

2882

6998

6931 6252

7711

1222

7853

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

288 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RUssIaN feDeRatIoN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.324 / (46/17) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.58% / (59/23)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3.3 k 2.6 k 1.9 k 1.3 k 660 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 289

POPULATION ≥ 142 M / (9/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 475 b / (10/1)

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (8/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 11,743 / (42/10)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,346 / (47/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (70/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
3330 (18%)

EXPORT TREEMAP*

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.05 b / 228.33 b (1.34%)
Total Exports: 3.05 B / 228.33 B (1.34%)

1988
2631 (6.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP*

TOTAL EXPORTS: 44.43 b / 2.79 T (1.59%)
Total Exports: 44.43 B / 2.79 T (1.59%)

2482 (10%)

2471 (8%)

3330 (39%)

6841 (2.7%) 6812 (2.5%) 6831 (1.9%) 3222 (2.1%) 5241 (1.5%) 6672 (2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3510 (3.3%)

2482 (2.7%)

2471 (3%)

2472 7187 7239 6712 (1.1%) 6716 6725 7224 7931 7919 7915 5623 0371 2631 (1.2%) (1.8%) 2111 2820 5121

4236 (2.4%) 2460 (2.7%) 6812 (5.7%) 6841 (2.2%) 6831 (3.4%) 6712 (3.4%) 2742 6672 (5.4%) 2784 2879 3232 2877
* values for USSR

2483 2481 0813

0612 (1.7%) 0542 6130 4113 4111 2820

7234 (1.4%) 7842 (1.4%) 5621 (1.7%)

7499 (3.6%)

5621 5623 (1.2%) 2713 (2%)

2120 (2.1%) 6522 6521

6725 6727 (1.4%) (1.2%) 6716

3414 (8.7%)

3413

2815 (1.1%) 2816

7126
* values for USSR

5225 (1%) 6821 (0.88%)

3345 2331 5221 5112

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 474.53 b / 15.56 T (3.05%) Total Exports: 474.53 B / 15.56 T (3.05%)
3414 (21%) petroleum gases 6841 (2.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 6725 (3.5%) Iron/steel billets

3330 (49%) Crude petroleum

6727 (0.93%) 6712 Iron/steel coils (0.82%) 6812 (1.2%) Unwrought metals of platinum 3222 (2.2%) Other coal 6822 (0.91%) 6745 Worked copper & copper alloys 7187

6716

5623 (1.4%) 5629 (1.3%) Potassic fertilizers Fertilizers

3232

3221

6831 (1.6%) Unwrought nickel & nickel alloys 2741 2816 6811 5225

5621 (1.1%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 2482 (0.89%) 2471

2331 (0.59%) 0412 (0.91%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2820

6732

2517
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

290 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

saUDI aRabIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.201 / (68/7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.80% / (99/9)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.964

0.966

0.968

0.97

0.972

0.974

0.976

0.978

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
13 k 10.4 k 7.8 k 5.2 k 2.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 291

POPULATION ≥ 25 M / (41/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 319 b / (15/1)

GDP ≥ USD 476 b / (23/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,200 / (32/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 12,859 / (22/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 67 % (16/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.22 b / 228.33 b (0.97%)
Total Exports: 2.22 B / 228.33 B (0.97%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 51.42 b / 2.79 T (1.84%)
Total Exports: 51.42 B / 2.79 T (1.84%)

3330 (99%)

3330 (82%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3413

5112 (2.1%) 5113 5831 (1.7%) 5621 5121 (3.2%)

7144 3354

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 318.83 b / 15.56 T (2.05%) Total Exports: 318.83 B / 15.56 T (2.05%)
5831

3330 (90%) Crude petroleum

5832 5112

5621

3351 7938 7921

5121

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

292 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

seNeGal
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.287 / (74/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.27% / (25/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

-2 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
240 192 144 96 48 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 293

POPULATION ≥ 12 M / (63/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.2 b / (112/17)

GDP ≥ USD 13 b / (106/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,079 / (107/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 179 / (114/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (111/22)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 177.55 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 177.55 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
2713 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 551.69 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 551.69 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

4234 (26%)

2221 (20%)

0360 (15%)

4234 (15%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0813 (10%)

2631 (2.8%)

2922
6672 (3.5%) 2877 (1.8%) 2783 (1.5%)

0371 (11%) 0615 2713 (15%) 5222 (5.1%) 2782 (1.5%) 6672 (1.4%) 5629 (1.4%) 5622 0545 (1%) 6513

2771 (2.3%) 0813 (14%) 4244 (3.7%) 0460 (2.3%) 6521 (1.4%)

0342 (5.8%)

0341 (4%)

0344 (3.4%)

1222

6522 0360 (2.2%) (0.8%) 6513 0545 9410 8510 (1.3%) 6341

0814 0350

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.19 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 2.19 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1222 (2.5%) Cigarretes 1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

5222 (18%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

5530 (3.5%) 6612 (10%) Cement Perfumery & cosmetics

1223 (2.1%) Tobbacco, extract, essences & manufactures 2631 (1.9%) Raw cotton 9710 2783 (1.4%) Sodium chloride 2782 (1%) Clay & refractory minerals, 7442N.E.S. Lifting (1%) 0544

8939 (1.3%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5514 5629 (3.4%) Fertilizers 2713 5832 0341 (7%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 0360 (5.5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0342 (3.8%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 5541

0460 0488

6731 (2.2%) Iron/steel wire & loading rod machinery

4234 (1.4%) 2882 0422 Peanut oil (0.94%) (0.92%) Other Semi or non-ferrous wholly milled base metals Edible products 6732 (3.6%) Iron/steel rods 0980 (2.7%) rice N.E.S.

7162 (0.81%) 6421 (0.91%) Paper packing containers 0579 0484 0545 (0.72%) 8931 2820 (2.2%) Iron & steel waste

0343 (1.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

0371 0350

7924 (2.4%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

294 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

seRbIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.644 / (37/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.38% / (17/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0 5 10 15 x 10
-3

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 295

POPULATION ≥ 7.4 M / (80/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 11 b / (76/17)

GDP ≥ USD 49 b / (72/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,647 / (59/15)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,510 / (68/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (89/22)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

2005
6727 (7.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 4.36 b / 9.84 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 4.36 B / 9.84 T (0.04%)

2007
0980 6842 (2.8%) 8211 (1.3%) 2483

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.85 b / 13.45 T (0.07%)
Total Exports: 8.85 B / 13.45 T (0.07%)

6822 (3.9%)

6251 (3.2%)

6418 0586 (3.7%)

6727 (6%)

6822 (4.3%) 6251 6418 (1.7%) 8939 (2.3%) (2.2%) 7169 (1.7%)

5542 5334 0819 5335

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0586 (3.1%)

0980 0484

0484 0730 0579 9510 7224 6289 6785 7283 7442 8946 7493 0585 1123 0612 (4.3%) 5121

0546 0545 6624 0561 3510 7731 8510 (2%) 8463 (1.5%) 6123 (1.2%) 8465 8422

8219 6911

6973

7416 6744 (2.7%) 6746 (1.8%) 7442 7493 6745 6783 6259

7758 6289

5111 5137 5831 (2.5%) (1.3%) 5112 2331

1110

0730 0579 8931

6747 (3.3%) 6746 (2.2%) 6744 (1.7%) 8939 (2.8%) 5417 (2.7%)

6821 (2%) 6794 69986861 2820 0149 2112

6259 (1.2%)

6747 (2.3%) 6842 (3.3%)

7915

0585 1123 5121 8463 (1.8%) 6123 8472 8423 6998 2882 6821 (1.1%) 8439 8510 (1.6%) 0612 (2.1%) 0460 0440 (1.2%) 0412 4236 4232 6794 2820 (1.7%) 8928 6612 0111

5831 (3.2%) 5111 5137 (1.3%) 2331

8219 8211 6353 7752

0440 (2.7%)

4236 0412

8472 8423 8431

3510 7731 6624 2483 6924 6973 (1.4%) (1.3%)

5334 0819 8922 5542 5832

6210

0223

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.09 b / 15.56 T (0.07%) Total Exports: 11.09 B / 15.56 T (0.07%)
6822 (4.2%) Worked 7169 (2.1%) copper & copper Parts of rotating alloys electric plants N.E.S. 6251 (1.9%) 6418 Tires & pneumatic for cars 8939 (2.3%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5542 0819 8922 5417 (2.2%) Medicaments 5334 0980 (0.99%) 7283 7442 7139 9510 0730 7758 7416 6259 7711 8463 (1.7%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 6123 0612 (1.7%) Refined sugar 6973 8211 6353 7861 0440 (1.4%) 0011 (0.59%) 0111 8510 (1.5%) Footwear 8472 (0.78%) 5112 2331 5621 8429 1123 2882 6841 5121 6612 3354 6289 7919 5111 (0.9%) 5137 5335 5831 (2.2%) Polyethylene 5629 0484 (0.97%) 0579 (0.67%) 6421 0585 8931 0586 (2.8%) Temporarily preserved fruit 1110 (1.2%)

6727 (6.3%) Iron/steel coils

6744 (2.6%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

6746 (2%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

6747 (2.2%) Steel tinned sheets

6745 (1.1%) 6783 Iron/steel 3 4.75mm tick sheets 7731 (1.5%) Electric wire 8219 (1.1%)

7915 (1%) Not mechanically propelled railway for freight 7611 (1.1%) Color T.V. 6911 6924

7924 (1%)

6794 2820 (1.6%) Iron 8928 & steel waste

6842 (2.4%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

2483

7752

3510 (1.7%) Electric current

6624 (1.2%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks

0460

4236

4239

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

296 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sINGaPoRe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.639 / (7/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.30% / (68/10)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
70 k 56 k 42 k 28 k 14 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 297

POPULATION ≥ 4.8 M / (97/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 338 b / (14/5)

GDP ≥ USD 193 b / (44/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 39,950 / (19/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 69,843 / (1/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 175 % (1/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 733.95 M / 228.33 b (0.32%)
Total Exports: 733.95 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

1988
3345 (5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 30.98 b / 2.79 T (1.11%)
Total Exports: 30.98 B / 2.79 T (1.11%)

2320 (42%)

4242 2483 (4.7%)

7599 (18%)

7764 (11%)

7721 (1.6%) 7431 (1.2%) 7758

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3345 (2.3%)

5831 (2%)

5832

6924 (1.9%) 4243 6732

6996 6341 2481

0819 (3.3%) 8921 6424

5982 8720 5417 8921 3352 5146 5156 4242 (1%) 0723 2923 0752 4232 1222 8973 (1.3%) 4313 1110 8931 0342 2820 2882 3354

7491 7239 2320 (2.3%) 7649 (3.8%) 7611 (3%)

8851 6652 0589 0980 6421 7781 (1.5%) 0586 (1.2%) 6783 2231 0460 (2.4%) 0751 (1.4%) 0752 2923 2640 (1.6%) 2924 0422 1123 6651 1222 (1.2%) 6785 9610 6423 6584 6581 8310

2890 (1.1%) 2876 (1.1%) 6522 0350 (0.96%) 0014 2119 6521

7638 (2.9%)

7622 (2.5%)

0421 2922 4234 8999

7628

7768 7788 7525 (1.4%) 7641 7162 (1.5%) 8463 8459 8743 8942 (0.91%) 7169 7932 (2%) 8441 8462 7712 7761 7415 7511 (0.95%) (0.95%) 8983 7781 2483 6997 7763 7528 7512 7522 7414 (1.1%) 7938 6342 7722 7643

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 338.31 b / 15.56 T (2.17%) Total Exports: 338.31 B / 15.56 T (2.17%)
7239 (2.9%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 5146 (1.6%) Oxygen-function amino-compounds 5112 (1.2%) Cyclic hydrocarbons

7764 (31%) Electronic microcircuits

7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

5989 (1.2%) 5839 (1.3%) Other Chemical polymerization & products copolymarization products 8720 (0.82%) 6871 5514 5829 5156 (0.81%) 5982 8744 5157

7491

7162 (0.68%) 8749 8741

8748

7599 (8%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7525 (3.9%) Control & peripheral hardware

7763 (2.5%) Diodes 7788 (2.2%) & transistors Other electrical 7499 machinery & equipment N.E.S. 6954 7431 7518 (1%) 7528 Office machines N.E.S. 7722 7712 (0.9%) 7781 7938 7929 (1.7%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

7643 (2.9%) Television & radio transmitters 7768 (6.1%) Parts N.E.S. of electronic circuits 7649 (2.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

5530 (0.86%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8973 3354 7131

5831 (0.75%) 5121 (0.72%) 1124

5823 7853 8851

0488

7523
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5833

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

298 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

slovaK RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.379 / (15/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.08% / (29/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74 0.76

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -15 -10 -5 0 x 10
-3

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
13 k 10.4 k 7.8 k 5.2 k 2.6 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 299

POPULATION ≥ 5.4 M / (93/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 70 b / (43/7)

GDP ≥ USD 98 b / (57/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 18,212 / (34/3)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,021 / (21/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 71 % (12/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.09 b / 4.30 T (0.14%)
Total Exports: 6.09 B / 4.30 T (0.14%)

2001
8939 3345 5112 5831 (2%) 5162 5621 (1.2%) 5629 5832 5834

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 12.64 b / 5.90 T (0.21%)
Total Exports: 12.64 B / 5.90 T (0.21%)

6746 (4.4%) 6727 (3.8%)

6745 7491 6251 6782 (2.8%) (1.2%) 7162 6418 7919

5417 (1.5%)

7810 (18%)

7849 (4.8%)

7491 (1.8%) 7162 (1.2%)

7731 (3.6%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8211 (1.9%) 8219

8510 (1.8%) 6123 8424 8422

8423 (0.84%) 8451 8441 8429

7492 5239 6725 7449 8510 (1.9%) 8424 6123 6514 (3.4%) (1.3%) 6252 6623 7611 8124 8439 8451 (0.92%) (0.85%) 7751 8423 8431 8462 6584 8429 6716 (2%) 6822 6747 6783 6770 6931 7915 (1.1%) (1.1%) 8422 8435 6517 6519 8731 (0.94%) 8459 8219 2482 6911 6353 6633 6415 (2%) 6841 0545 0440 0482 2820 (1.9%) (1.7%) 6624 6421 6651 2483 6997 6342 7731 7752 8211 6612 (1.7%) 1222 6921 2517 (1.2%) 0011 6114 6417 6618 6749 (2.1%) 6744 (1.9%)

7224 8921 6424 7361 5542

7493 7431 6782 9510 8121 6745 7751

7239 6289 7373 7169

6997 6428 2483 6353 2472 7861 2482 3510 6415 6424 (1.8%) 6649 6417 5831 (1.1%) 5832

6514 6652 (1.4%)

6519

6841 (2.6%) 2782 6612 6998 8928 6114 2820 0482

6746 (3%)

6749 (1.2%)

7611 6252 6623 7722 7782 8124 7915 8921 8922 5145 5162 5542

6727 (2.2%)

6716 6747 7768 (0.81%) 6725 6744 7712

5834 6210 0980 5621 0730

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 70.41 b / 15.56 T (0.45%) Total Exports: 70.41 B / 15.56 T (0.45%)
7611 (16%) Color T.V. 7731 (2.6%) Electric wire 6997 6911

7810 (20%) Cars

6924 8219 (1.1%) 8211 Furniture parts N.E.S. 6343

6415 8939 (1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5832 5831 (0.61%) 6841 (0.87%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 5121 8510 (1.5%) Footwear

7849 (3.9%) Other vehicles parts

7493 (1.3%) Mechanical tools for building 8121 (1.2%)

6991 (0.91%) 7431 7239

7638 (1.7%) Video 7712 (1.1%) 7525 (0.94%) & sound recorders N.E.S. 7751 (0.9%) 6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets 6747 (0.8%) 6744 (0.78%) 6746 (1.4%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets 6745 (0.75%) 6716 (0.67%) 6727

8124

7842 (3.1%) Vehicle bodies

7162

6782

6940 6251

6252 (1.2%) Tires & pneumatic for buses 7119 7782 7915 6931

6514 2820

7783 7491 (1.5%) 7442

7868 6289

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

300 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sloveNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.523 / (10/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.72% / (49/19)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 0.74

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.64

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 301

POPULATION ≥ 2 M / (122/26) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 29 b / (61/12)

GDP ≥ USD 54 b / (70/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 26,911 / (27/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,496 / (16/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (25/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
7810 (8.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.45 b / 4.30 T (0.15%)
Total Exports: 6.45 B / 4.30 T (0.15%)

2001
8510 (2.5%) 8439 (1.7%) 8423 8422 8459 8424 5417 (3.7%) 8451 8465 8435 8431 (1.5%) 6514 8463 6123 8432 8421 8429 6841 (1.5%) 0142 0114 0980 5239 6421 6516 6536

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.24 b / 5.90 T (0.16%)
Total Exports: 9.24 B / 5.90 T (0.16%)

7758 (2.2%) 6353 (3.6%) 8211 (3.3%)

7721 7783 7169 6418 7757 8124 7611 (1.2%) (1.2%) 8947 8710 7751 6991 6251 7781 8813 7431 7449 7281 6746 6745 6783 6832 6863 5224 6744 6716 7162 7492 8731 6252 (1.1%) 7784 8743 6259 7752 (2.1%) 6997 2482 2483 6412 (1.4%) 6428 6842 (1.3%) 6359 6911 6732 3510 7861 6342 6973 6415 (0.95%) 6652 (0.79%) 8842

7810 (9%)

7849 (2.7%)

8211 (5.2%)

6353 (2%)

7758 (2%) 7169 (1.4%) 7783 7721 7239

6998 (1%) 6116 (0.89%)

5530 8921

6424 5334

7431 (1.2%) 6251 (1.1%) 7757 (1.6%) 7751

8219 (3.1%)

5156 5138

0548

8219 6842 (2.3%) 7162 7913 (2.5%) 7492 7139 7493 6631 2483 2482 7442 7161 5417 (5.5%) 8510 8422 6514 6954 7499 (1.2%) 6418 8439 6522 (0.94%) 7784 8743 6991 7129 8431 8939 5530 6424 (0.91%) 7281 6841 6998 6116 7641 7723 8731 6744 6783 (1.5%) 0223 6573 (1%) 6746 6716 5334 6635 6252 5821 8124 7781 1110 1123 6745 5331 5824 6210 5823 7711

6732 6412 (0.93%) (1.1%) 3510 6415 (0.91%) 6411 7861 6911 6997 6652 6649 6428 6341

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

7752 (1.9%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 29.27 b / 15.56 T (0.19%) Total Exports: 29.27 B / 15.56 T (0.19%)
7849 (3.1%) Other vehicles parts 8211 (2.6%) Chairs & seats 6842 (2.3%) 6732 (1.5%) Worked Iron/steel rods aluminium & aluminium alloys 2482 (0.9%) 8219 (1.7%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 3510 (1.7%) Electric current 6415 6411 6841 (1.1%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2882 2873 8928 5530 (1.2%) 6745 6783 6252 8731 7711 5331 5416 8939 (1.1%) 5334 (0.75%) 5335 5831 8921 5542 5821 6210 6424 2820 6635 0223 (0.62%) 6998 6353 (1.4%) Builders` carpentry & joinery 7752 (1.2%) Refrigerators & freezers 6911 (0.93%) 8842 6652 6953 7758 (2.3%) Electro-thermal home appliances N.E.S.

7810 (13%) Cars

7783 (1.8%) Auto parts

7169

6954 (0.91%)

7442 (0.65%) 6418 (0.62%) 7281 6572

7452 7139 8743 7441 6994 5417 (8.9%) Medicaments

7239 (1.7%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 6251 (1.2%) Tires & 7492 (1%) Valves pneumatic for cars

6991 (0.85%)

6289 7431 (1%) 7432 (0.95%) 7372

7868 6940 7919 6744 (1.7%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

6514 (0.85%) Yarn not for retail (>=85% synthetic fibres)

7757 (1%)

7781 (0.63%) 8942 (0.56%)

8947 8124

7751

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

302 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

soUth afRICa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.131 / (55/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.90% / (41/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.8 0.85

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.75

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 303

POPULATION ≥ 49 M / (23/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 74 b / (41/2)

GDP ≥ USD 277 b / (31/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,666 / (62/4)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,519 / (67/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (76/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6672 (19%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.07 b / 228.33 b (0.91%)
Total Exports: 2.07 B / 228.33 B (0.91%)

1988
0571 (2.8%) 0611 (3.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 14.77 b / 2.79 T (0.53%)
Total Exports: 14.77 B / 2.79 T (0.53%)

0440 (10%)

6812 (14%)

3222 (11%)

6716 (8.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0574 0571 (1.3%) (1.3%) 0575

0574 (1.9%)

0459 (1.1%)

0812 0612 0615 0579 0585

6821 (9.6%)

2784 (3.8%)

2890 (4.3%) 2681 (7%)

0575 0572 2221 (0.97%) 6512 0589 (3.3%) 2682 2683 6716 (2.3%)

6841 (1.4%)

2881 2731 2874 2785 (1.2%) 3221 2786 6672 (6.9%) 6821 (3.7%) 6831 2872 5241 (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.4%) 2815 (2.4%) 2877 (1.4%) 6899 2784 2890

0611 (1.9%) 6725 6727 6746 6749 (1.4%) 6712 6733 6783 0813 1212 6731 7283 2681 (1.8%) 03600342 5222 5221 6512 (1.4%) 2683 6114 2687 2117 6413 6732 2518 2713 5162 0589 0579 (1.4%) 3351

2872 6851 2731 2879 2871 2782 2877 (2.2%)

0814 (2.7%)

2120 (3.2%)

6712 (2.1%)

2879 (3.2%)
0360 (1.3%) 4111 2116 2111 2117 2516 (1.4%) 5322

2516 (1.3%) 5225 2517

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 74.09 b / 15.56 T (0.48%) Total Exports: 74.09 B / 15.56 T (0.48%)
6841 (2.3%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 7810 (7.6%) Cars 6716 (9.5%) Ferro-alloys

6812 (16%) Unwrought metals of platinum

2882 (0.96%)

7436 (5.2%) Liquid & gas filters & purifiers

7821 (2.7%) Trucks & vans

6727 (1.1%) 3222 (7.8%) Other coal 6672 (3.8%) Not mounted diamonds 7132 (0.71%) 6746 (0.86%) 7283 6842 (1.2%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 8211 6911 (0.97%) 5222 (1.4%) 5629 Non-metals 5221 inorganic acids & oxygen compounds 5111 5832 0571 (0.84%) 0575

6744 6749 7923 1121 (1.3%) Wine

2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore

2877 (3.2%) Manganese

2879 (2.7%) Other non-ferrous base metals

7861

0574

0572

0579 0360 2681

0585 0589 2820

2890 (1.3%) Ores and precious metals

5241

2516

6415 3351

0440 (0.89%) Unmilled maize

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

304 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sPaIN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.933 / (28/13) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.08% / (83/7)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

22% OF WT

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

0.5

0

0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

-0.03

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

0

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
6.1 k 4.8 k 3.6 k 2.4 k 1.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 305

POPULATION ≥ 46 M / (26/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 279 b / (17/7)

GDP ≥ USD 1.6 T / (10/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 35,000 / (22/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 6,124 / (35/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (107/15)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0571 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.81 b / 228.33 b (0.79%)
Total Exports: 1.81 B / 228.33 B (0.79%)

1988
8946 8510 (5.2%) 7851 7919

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 40.31 b / 2.79 T (1.44%)
Total Exports: 40.31 B / 2.79 T (1.44%)

0544 (5.8%)

0460 (1.9%) 2440

0541 7244 (4.8%)

7810 (13%)

0545 (2.7%)

1121

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6624 (1.5%) 8219 (0.93%) 7731 2517 (1.1%)

6732 (1.4%)

0571 (3.4%)

0579 (2.1%)
6352 2814 6725 8124 7511 8481

0577 (4.3%) 0575 (2.8%) 1121 (6.1%) 0572 0565 (5.6%) 0545 (3%)

4235 (2.5%)

8310 6584 0752 0751 8997 0422 0573 6513 (1.4%) 6521 6724 6716 (0.97%) 2927 6517 5224 6931 0421 5513 8921 (2.1%) 5623 3510 5981 (1.7%) (1.1%) 0589 0579 7731 8960 (1.8%) (1.5%) 5221 (1.9%) 6973 5137 2742 (1.3%) 0350 0360 6118 2919 6330 0585 (2.2%) 2785 (0.97%) 0546 6613

7849 (5.4%)

6251 7132

7783 7361 4235 (1.6%) 0589 6954 7492 7431 7372 6940 6991 0565 (1.4%) 5156 5111 5148 5137 5138 5831 5832 0980 0620

0544 (1.4%) 8960 0440 0430 0360 6130 0577 2927

7821 (2.5%) 6733 (1.1%) 6725 6744 6747 6746 (0.87%)

6418 6731 7442 7162 8942 7528 6252 8124 7757 7781 6259

5416 8921 8510 (3.8%) 3345 (0.94%) 5413

7932 (1.3%) 7929

6613 (0.81%) 3352 5623 6612 6861 3354

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 279.29 b / 15.56 T (1.8%) Total Exports: 279.29 B / 15.56 T (1.8%)
7849 (6.1%) Other vehicles parts 5417 (4.6%) Medicaments 5530 (1.2%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8921 5542 5334 5839 5832 3352 5912 2517 6415 0571 (1.5%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines 0544 8219 (0.76%) 3510 8939 (0.65%) 5335 6424 6624 (1.6%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks 6732 (1.6%) Iron/steel rods 7731

7810 (15%) Cars

6842 (0.92%)

6997

6911

6924 6996

7821 (3.6%) Trucks & vans

6782 (0.64%) 7783 6731 7162

7851 7449 7361 7822

7758

6289

0545 (1.8%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

4235 (1.4%) Olive oil

0565 (0.75%) 0980 (0.66%)

0113 (1.2%) Swine meat

1121 (1.4%) Wine 8931 0579 (1.4%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

7132 (1%) 7169 (0.82%) 7611 (1.4%) Color T.V. 7415

7492 (0.77%) 7442 (0.67%) 6733 (1%) 6822 Iron/steel shapes 6746 6252 7711

0342 0341

7929 (1%) 8510 (1.3%) Aircraft Footwear equipment parts N.E.S. 8439

8451 (0.52%)

5823 (0.7%) 6613

3354 6861

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

306 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sRI laNKa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.265 / (71/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.97% / (37/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
410 328 246 164 82 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 307

POPULATION ≥ 20 M / (49/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 8.2 b / (81/4)

GDP ≥ USD 41 b / (77/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,020 / (91/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 406 / (100/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (100/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0741 (61%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 358.17 M / 228.33 b (0.16%)
Total Exports: 358.17 M / 228.33 B (0.16%)

1988
0577 2320 (16%) (7.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.52 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 1.52 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

8439 (6.2%)

8462 (3.4%)

0741 (18%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2320 (8.4%)

8435 (4.9%)

8441 (3.3%) 2659

8423 (3.1%)
4243 (5.7%) 2659 (3.2%)

8451 (2%)

8421 (1.9%)

8429 (1.9%) 0577 6673 (5.8%) 6672 (3.8%)

0752 (2.1%)

0812 0751 (0.83%) 0711 0360 (1.5%) 6664

8431 (2.5%) 8433
2231 (1.2%) 0752 0721 4242

6584 8481 8997 8452 8471 8465 6581

7924 (2%)

8463 (2.3%)

8434 (2%)

8472 8443 8459

6940 6259 6624 6289 8482

8999 5989

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 8.19 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 8.19 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
8439 (6.9%) Other women outerwear 8459 (5.7%) Other knitted outerwear 0741 (17%) Tea 0752 (1.7%) Spices other than pepper 0460 0812

8462 (7.7%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

2320 (1.7%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

1212

1223 8423 (4.1%) Men's trousers 8463 (2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8451 (2%) 8441 (1.7%) Knitted jerseys, Men's pullovers & undershirt cardigans

6259 (4.2%) Other tires articles

8482 (1.7%) Clothing accessories from rubber 6289 (0.97%) 7441 Other articles of rubber

7722 7641

7731 (0.74%) 6582

6416

7852 6664 0360

8465 (3.7%) Corsets 8435 (1.3%) Blouses 8464 (2.2%) null 8472 (2.2%) 8433 (1.1%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics 8434 (0.92%) 8452 (0.8%) 8431 8424 6552 8443 7711 8997 6672 (4.2%) Not mounted diamonds

6673 (2.5%) Not mounted precious stones

0342 0341 (0.98%) Frozen fish, 0343 excluding 0980 fillets 8931 8928

2511

0589 2771 (1.1%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

308 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sUDaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.768 / (126/24) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.55% / (126/24)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 0.955 0.96 0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98 0.985

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 0 0.02 0.04 0.06

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
240 192 144 96 48 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 309

POPULATION ≥ 41 M / (29/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.9 b / (77/5)

GDP ≥ USD 58 b / (67/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,404 / (98/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 239 / (111/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (109/20)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (58%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 259.62 M / 228.33 b (0.11%)
Total Exports: 259.62 M / 228.33 B (0.11%)

1988
0813 0012 (6.9%) (4.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 561.19 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 561.19 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2922 (10%)

2631 (47%)

2922 (12%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0813 (6.4%)

0012 (4.5%)

2221 (7.4%)

4234 (3.5%) 0459 (5.8%)
0011

2117 (1.2%) 2116 2114 2111

2634 (4.7%)

4233 (1.4%) 0459 2223 2235 0548 2924

2116 2119 2117 2890

2238 2222 4239 2221 (4.5%) 2225 (2.2%) 2632 0615 (2.2%) 0548 (1%) 2911 0561 7144

0579 2924 6513

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 9.87 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.87 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)
2225

3330 (91%) Crude petroleum

2922

2631

0459

0012

2820 9410
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

310 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sWeDeN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.859 / (4/3) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.04% / (87/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
2.5
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7

2

2

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5

-0.5 -0.04 -0.035 -0.03 -0.025

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
20 k 16 k 12 k 8k 4k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 311

POPULATION ≥ 9.2 M / (75/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 184 b / (23/9)

GDP ≥ USD 488 b / (22/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 52,884 / (9/6)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 19,957 / (13/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 38 % (52/8)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2517 (7.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.34 b / 228.33 b (2.34%)
Total Exports: 5.34 B / 228.33 B (2.34%)

1988
7491 (1.9%) 7411 7499 (1.5%) (1.8%) 7281 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 48.89 b / 2.79 T (1.75%)
Total Exports: 48.89 B / 2.79 T (1.75%)

2518 (4.2%)

6411 (2.4%)

7810 (6.7%)

7810 (7.7%)

6954 7832 7721 7452 7442 2517 (4%) (1.3%) (1.2%) 7234 (1.1%) 7132 (1.1%) 6782 7491 7841 6413 (3.5%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6411 (3%)

6415 (2.2%)

6415 (2.4%) 6413 (5.6%) 6412 (1.9%) 2482 (10%) 6732 (1.8%)

2516 (1.5%) 2512 5981 2460 6953 (1.3%)

6731 7821 (2.3%) 6782 (2%) (1%)

7932 (5.8%)

7452 6940 7213 7126 6577 7283 7371 7841 8121 6822 6746 7512 7788 7518 (1.7%) (1.3%) (2.1%) 6783 6716 6770 0113 2120 7781 8947 7511 8928

6412 (2.2%) 6732 6353 6842 7731 6911 3510 7414

2518 2512

7849 (4.1%)

7821 (2.8%)

7451 7416

7449 6731 8743 7251 2482 (4%)

7441 7373 6940 7492 7758 7259 7822

7752

6418 (2.3%) 7649 (2.1%) 7641

6416 6842 6353 (1.3%) 6973

6419 (1.9%)

2671

6998

7133 7525 7528 6744 (0.81%) (1.1%) 7643 6746 (1%) 7712

7284 (1.3%)

8219 6822 6749 6770 (0.8%) 7932 6725 6783 6745 6713 7149 5417 (1.7%) 8939

6428 8720 5831 (1%) 2815 2816 0484 0730 2120

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 184.43 b / 15.56 T (1.19%) Total Exports: 184.43 B / 15.56 T (1.19%)
7416 (1.3%) Heating & cooling equipment N.E.S. 7441 (1.2%) Work trucks 7284 (1.2%) 7821 Specialized (1.1%) industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7442 (1.1%) 7452 Lifting & loading machinery 6954 3510 (0.84%) 7841 7188 7259 5417 (6.2%) Medicaments 8939 (1%) 0980 Miscellaneous articles of plastic 8931 5334 2816 (1.5%) 2882 Agglomerated iron ore 8744 5831 (1.3%) Polyethylene 5834 6210 6842 7842 7491 2482 (2.9%) Worked wood of coniferous 8219 (1.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S. 6732 6413 (1.9%) 2517 (1.8%) Rolls/sheets of Chemical kraft paper wood pulp, soda or sulphate

7810 (6.9%) Cars

7239

7234

7731 (1.1%)

6353

6428

6911 7414 6415 (1.1%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets 6411 (1%) 6412 (0.63%) 5851

7849 (4.2%) Other vehicles parts

6782 (0.72%) 7492 (0.66%) 7187

6418 (2.2%) Rolls/sheets of coated paper

7721 (1.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

6744 (1.1%) 6746 7149 8720 (0.89%) Iron/steel (0.89%) (0.61%) >=4.75mm tick sheets 7415 8996 5415 6822 (0.88%) 6770 Worked copper 8124 & copper * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headersalloys Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country). show: Total & sound recording equipment Telephone lines

7132 (1.4%) Internal combustion engines for motor 7649 (3.8%) Parts of telecom vehicles (2.1%) 7641 7832 (1.8%) Tractors for semi-trailers

7133 7758 7712

7493 7283 7523

8745

0341 (0.93%) 2820 Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

312 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sWItzeRlaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.935 / (3/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.78% / (100/11)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

-0.5 0.7 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76

-0.5 -0.035 -0.03 -0.025 -0.02 -0.015 -0.01

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
26 k 20.8 k 15.6 k 10.4 k 5.2 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 313

POPULATION ≥ 7.6 M / (78/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 201 b / (19/8)

GDP ≥ USD 502 b / (21/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 65,699 / (3/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 26,283 / (10/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (47/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.96 b / 228.33 b (1.73%)
Total Exports: 3.96 B / 228.33 B (1.73%)

1988
8960 6842

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 58.99 b / 2.79 T (2.11%)
Total Exports: 58.99 B / 2.79 T (2.11%)

7244 (9.5%)

7499 (1.9%) 7126 (1.4%) 7243 7784 7271

7452 (1.4%) 7281 (1.3%) 6577 7491

8852 (1.9%)

7788 8851 (17%) (1.5%)

7721 (2.6%)

7512 7188 (0.94%) 8812 8731 (2.8%)

3510 6953 6996 6341

5155 (5.4%)

5411 5148 (1.5%) 5989

5417 (7.3%)

6522 6513 (1.7%) 6521

0240 (2.7%)

6673

8745 (2.8%)

5416 8720 5162 5137 5415 8996

8921 (1.6%)

5414 5542 (1.4%)

6560 8510 (1.4%) (1.1%) 8471

5513 (1.3%)

0980 0730 5121

2665 8928 8993

7361 7246 7416 6954 7267 7373 7788 6672 (11%) (2.6%) (0.84%) (0.99%) 7252 8743 7492 7493 8852 6940 7284 (2.6%) (0.79%) 7369 (0.77%) 7499 7272 7431 7271 7264 7281 7269 7268 7245 (1.6%) 7452 7247 6783 (1.3%) 7161 8851 (6%) 7244 (1.5%) 7784 6577 6418 8749 5311 5156 5989 5514 5146 5417 (5.4%) 8939 (2.6%) (2%) 5414 5530 8742 5416 5413 5139 8996 5839 5824 6514 6522 5826 8745 5148 8748 5147 5542 5411 8720 5912 5913 5911 6513

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

8973 (1.4%) 9710 6812 8960 (2.5%) 6842 (1.2%) 3510

8931 8928 0240 (0.87%) 1222

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 200.66 b / 15.56 T (1.29%) Total Exports: 200.66 B / 15.56 T (1.29%)
5148 (2.1%) Other nitrogen-function compounds 8720 (1.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5147 (1.2%) Amide-function compounds, excluding urea 8748 5332 7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7284 (2.3%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 6940 (0.65%) 8743 7367 7416 (0.96%) Heating & cooling equipment 7361 (0.9%) N.E.S. Metal cutting machine-tools 7452 7492 7373 9510 7161 7281 8749 8960 8973 (3.2%) Precious jewellery 6812 (2.3%) Unwrought metals of platinum 7162 7431 7369 6954 7244 7493 7499 7923 (0.7%) 7712 7432 7149 (1.3%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

5416 (8.1%) Glycosides & vaccines

5156 (2%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids

5514 (0.96%)

5415

8744 5311

8996 (3.2%) Orthopaedic appliances

5989

8742 (0.53%) 5411

5146 5824 5233 5413 (0.93%)

8851 (8.8%) Watches

5417 (15%) Medicaments

8939 (0.86%) 5530 5419 5821 5334 3510 (2.9%) Electric current 6842 (0.75%)

6953

6672 (1.1%) Not mounted diamonds 1110 0980 0711 1222 8928

6997

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

314 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

sYRIaN aRab RePUblIC
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.290 / (75/8) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.78% / (44/5)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
700 560 420 280 140 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 315

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (48/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 15 b / (72/13)

GDP ≥ USD 55 b / (69/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,649 / (89/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 705 / (88/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (78/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (22%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 179.42 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 179.42 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
0012 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 688.71 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 688.71 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

3330 (32%)

3330 (64%)

0012 (4.2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2919 (3.1%)

2117 (1.9%) 0014
0011 (8.1%)

8483 0752 0542

2631 (6.8%)

4233 0542 (4%)

0577 2221 0430 (3%)

2223 0813 (2.1%) 2681 2682 0230 2117 (1.1%) (0.99%) 2919 0579 0545 7821 (2.1%) 6513 (0.92%) 6521

2713 (5.8%)

8484 8421 0545 (1.7%) 0583

6513 (1.1%) 8960 8741

0752

0812

0571

0574 2925

5530

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 14.49 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 14.49 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)
1110 (9.2%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 6732 (3%) Iron/steel rods 7731 (2.8%) Electric wire

3330 (37%) Crude petroleum

4235 (1.2%)

0980 (0.54%) 0565 0545 0620

0484

7752 (1.6%) 6997 Refrigerators & freezers (0.83%) Articles of iron or steel 6973 6842 (1.4%) Worked N.E.S. aluminium & aluminium alloys 0544 (0.99%) 0460 Fresh or chilled tomatoes 0542 (0.58%) 0752 2631 0572 0582 0224 (1.9%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream 5825 0012 (1.9%) Live sheep & goat 0251

5542 (2.3%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S. 6513 (4.8%) Cotton yarn 6531 (3.6%) Continuous synthetic woven fabrics 8510 (1.3%) Footwear 8459 (0.87%) 8463 8433 6560 2713 (3.1%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium

8939

0114

6571

0412
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

316 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tajIKIstaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.054 / (108/25) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.95% / (92/24)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96

-2 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
160 128 96 64 32 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 317

POPULATION ≥ 6.8 M / (84/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1 b / (127/27)

GDP ≥ USD 5.1 b / (123/27) GDPpc ≥ USD 751 / (116/27)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 152 / (117/27) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (99/24)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2631 (53%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 250.69 b / 4.30 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 250.69 M / 4.30 T (0.01%)

2001
6841 (48%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 356.81 b / 5.90 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 356.81 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

6841 (37%)

2631 (24%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0575

0574 1211 0542 6521 (4.8%) 0579 (4.5%) 0585 (1.5%) 0565 0545 6513 (2.4%) 6522 (1.9%)
2882 5241 (4.8%) 2111 6994 6716

6911 (1.5%) 8423

6842 (1%) 3510

7761 (1.3%) 2820

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.04 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.04 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
2631 (13%) Raw cotton 0430 (3.6%) Unmilled barley

6841 (58%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

0411 (1.9%) Unmilled durum wheat

0412 (1.3%)

0542 0577 (1.3%) 2221 0422

0460

0575 (1%) Grapes & raisins

0579 (6.7%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

8423 (1.3%) Men's trousers

6513 (0.74%) 6522

0545 (2.5%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

6978 (1%) Base metal household appliances N.E.S. 0344 2111

6716

5621
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

318 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

taNzaNIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.637 / (95/10) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.93% / (39/6)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.76

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
94 75.2 56.4 37.6 18.8 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 319

POPULATION ≥ 42 M / (28/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.1 b / (106/14)

GDP ≥ USD 21 b / (95/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 502 / (119/18)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 74 / (125/23) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 15 % (115/23)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (17%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 209.75 M / 228.33 b (0.09%)
Total Exports: 209.75 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

1988
6672 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 377.53 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 377.53 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (15%)

0711 (32%)

2631 (16%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6821 (6.9%)

6672 (2.2%)
2654 (14%) 6821 (5.6%) 0752 (3.9%) 0548 0542 (1.2%) (1.2%) 0577 (7.8%) 0741 (3.3%) 0813 (2.6%) 2235 2634 2924 2929 0812 2231 4314 0149 (2.6%) 6575 (1.5%) 5322 2483

6899 6513 (0.99%) 6521 (0.82%)

0577 (7.3%)

0741 (4.8%)

6575 (2.8%)

2654 2225 2223 0542 (4.2%) 0752 (3.1%) 2924 0548 1212 (2.5%) 0611 (1.6%)

8462 2111

2111

2114

2112 0721 0360 (0.8%) (0.92%) 0712 4314

2472 (1.2%) 2483 5322

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 3.13 b / 15.56 T (0.02%)

Total Exports: 3.13 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)
2631 (2.9%) Raw cotton 0577 (2.6%) Edible nuts 0741 (1.5%) Tea 2634 (1.3%) 1212 (6.2%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

9710 (27%) Gold, non-monetary

2225 (1.1%)

0711 (3.8%) Green & roasted 0542 (2.3%) coffee & coffee substitutes Dried or shelled legumes

0460 (1.3%) Wheat or meslin meal or flour 0752

4242 (1%) Palm oil

2926

0721 (0.92%) Raw & roasted 2927coffee 2925 beans

0813 (0.71%) 0412

2890 (13%) Ores and precious metals

0343 (2.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

0344 (2%) Frozen fish fillets

6732 (1.7%) 8212 (0.93%) Iron/steel Medical & rods dental furniture 2483

5621 (1.3%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

0360 7758 (1.3%) 7711 (2%) Electrical Electro-thermal home transformers appliances N.E.S. 2882 6671 6673 7268 (1%) Bookbinding machines 7929

8932 6589 (2%) Other textile articles N.E.S. 6575 6513

5629 4312 8931 6951

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

320 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

thaIlaND
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.814 / (31/6) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.05% / (3/2)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -5 0 5 10 15 x 10
-3

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
2.6 k 2k 1.5 k 1k 520 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 321

POPULATION ≥ 67 M / (19/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 176 b / (25/8)

GDP ≥ USD 272 b / (32/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,043 / (77/8)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,612 / (53/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 65 % (17/6)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 739.58 M / 228.33 b (0.32%)
Total Exports: 739.58 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

1988
6871 (8.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 16.50 b / 2.79 T (0.59%)
Total Exports: 16.50 B / 2.79 T (0.59%)

0422 (34%)

2320 (12%)

2320 (8%)

0611 (3.1%)

0422 (8.3%)

7764 (5.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0360 (5.1%)

7599 (3.9%)
0819 (3.1%) 0440 (11%) 0360 (2.5%) 6673 (1.5%) 2785 (0.99%) 2879 6581

8942 7525 8482

0371 (3.8%) 0372 (1.8%) 0342 0341 6783 0114 (1.4%)

0548 (6.4%)

0542 0711 0612 0440 7491 (1.1%) 6534 6513 6584 6521 6673 (2.8%) 8973 (3%) 7161

0011 5922 0548 (4.5%) 2640 (4%) 0421 (1.3%) 2235 0542 2929 0470 (1%)

8510 (2.3%)

8439 8451 (1.7%) 8462

8429 8441

2922

0564 (1.8%) 2483 (1.1%) 2472

8459 8423 8310

8433 8463 8434 8435 6354

6114 6129 7731 8211 0589 8931 0579 (1.7%) 0980 0585 8219 6624 0565 2483 8999 6871 8851 5921 0819

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 175.95 b / 15.56 T (1.13%) Total Exports: 175.95 B / 15.56 T (1.13%)
7415 (2.5%) Air conditioning machines 7599 (2.4%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7788 (1.7%) 2320 (5.1%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 0422 (4.5%) Semi or wholly milled rice 5831 (1.2%) Polyethylene 6210 5834 5832 8841 (1.1%) 7621 (0.65%) 7768 (0.62%) 7722 8482 7751 7528 6252 (0.61%) 7712 (0.59%) 7518 (0.56%) 0611 0371 (1.9%) Fish 0360 N.E.S. (1.4%) 8939 0612 0548 7731 5530 5542 0819 5823 (1.2%) Polyesters 8928 (1.1%) 5138 5112

7525 (9.6%) Control & peripheral hardware

7611 (1%) 7764 (5%) Electronic microcircuits 7638

7821 (4.2%) Trucks & vans

7721 (1.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 7758

7431

7139

7162 7416 6940 7929 (1%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7938

0372 (1.1%) 0342 Prepared 5922 crustaceans & molluscs Gold, non-monetary 9710 (2.6%)

0149 7752 (1.4%) Other prepared or preserved 6912 meat & entrails 6114

7853 6415 5833 0980 (0.94%) Edible products N.E.S. 8931 2665 0589

8510 (0.72%) 8459

8462

7849 (3.1%) Other vehicles parts 7851

8973 (2.2%) Precious jewellery

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

322 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tRINIDaD aND tobaGo
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.306 / (76/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.71% / (103/20)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.93 0.935 0.94 0.945 0.95 0.955 0.96 0.965

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 323

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (126/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 b / (69/8)

GDP ≥ USD 26 b / (87/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,443 / (31/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,024 / (17/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 72 % (11/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 457.15 M / 228.33 b (0.2%)
Total Exports: 457.15 M / 228.33 B (0.2%)

1988
0612 (3.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.06 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 1.06 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

3330 (32%)

3354 0611 (14%) (4.7%)

3330 (51%)

5225 (16%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5121 (7.4%)

1124 (3.3%)

0721 3345 (5.2%) 5225 (15%) 2877 (2.1%) 5621 (4.4%) 8996 3352 (1.7%) 5989 (2%)

0615 (1.5%) 0360 (3.1%)

6731 (4.5%)

6713 (2.1%)

5621 (5.2%)
1124 (1.7%) 8471 0585

0611 (3%)

2789 (1.8%)

2873 (2.2%)
6651

2789

0813 (1%) 0612 0615 6732

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 18.73 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 18.73 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)
5225 (14%) Inorganic bases 5121 (9.1%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives & metallic oxides, hydroxides & peroxides

3413 (45%) liquified hydrocarbons

2814 (3.5%) Roasted iron pyrites

6713 (2.4%) Iron & steel powders

6725 3330 (16%) Crude petroleum 6731 (1.9%) Iron/steel wire 7234 rod (0.95%)

5621 (2.8%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

324 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tUNIsIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.294 / (47/4) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.36% / (19/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.9 k 1.5 k 1.1 k 760 380 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 325

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (69/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 b / (68/12)

GDP ≥ USD 41 b / (76/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,955 / (78/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,869 / (61/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (33/7)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2713 (17%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 193.58 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 193.58 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
1121 (4.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.47 b / 2.79 T (0.09%)
Total Exports: 2.47 B / 2.79 T (0.09%)

5622 (11%)

4235 (14%)

8423 (10%)

8441 (2.6%)

8429 8459 (2.2%) (2.3%) 8434 (2.2%)

6522 3330 (11%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6612 (2.4%)

0565 (1.3%) 0545 (1.3%)

0579 (0.86%)

8452 6123 8424 8465 8435 (1.3%) (1.3%) (1.1%) (1.1%) 6592 8439 (4.5%) 8433 8431 8462 8472 (1.3%) 8451 5222 (6.4%) 5629 (5%) 4235 (5.2%) 6521 0360 (4.2%) 7731 (1.3%) 7721 (1.8%) 2713 (2%) 5232 5231 0012 7712 7723

2882 2783 0579 (1.9%) 0565 1121 8842 2519 0571 0488

3330 (24%)

6851 2519 (2.3%) 0812 (2%) 2929 0752 6732 (1.8%) 2440 0542 6624 2450 0571 (3.7%) 2783 (1%) 2875 6612 0012 (1%) 5513 2919 2116 6592 (0.99%) 6712

5622 (6.8%)

0577 (1.8%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 19.34 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 19.34 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)
8510 (2.5%) Footwear 8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 3330 (16%) Crude petroleum 7721 (5.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7783 6994 8451 (1.5%)

8423 (4.9%) Men's trousers

8429 (4.7%) Other men outerwear

6123 (1.2%)

8463

8441 (0.74%) 8431 7611 (1%) Color T.V. 7641 (1%) Telephone lines 6612 2882 7712 0341 7788 (1%) Other electrical machinery & equipment 7722 N.E.S. 7528 6749

8459 (1.1%) 6589 8465

8439 (3.7%) Other women outerwear

5629 (5.3%) Fertilizers

5622 (3.9%) Phosphatic fertilizers

8939

7731 (6.2%) Electric wire

6911 (0.62%) 4235 (3.9%) Olive oil 6428 6997 4249 (0.59%)

5222 (4.4%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

5232 (1.9%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts

2713 (0.9%) Natural calcium phosphates 5231 & aluminium

8720

7861

0579 (1.2%) Fresh 0483 or dried fruit N.E.S. 0914

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

326 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tURKeY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.444 / (43/16) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.83% / (43/16)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.65 0.7 0.75

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 327

POPULATION ≥ 74 M / (17/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 135 b / (31/4)

GDP ≥ USD 730 b / (17/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,881 / (47/11)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,826 / (63/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (103/25)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2631 (36%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 576.56 M / 228.33 b (0.25%)
Total Exports: 576.56 M / 228.33 B (0.25%)

1988
0813 (6.3%) 2879 (4.6%) 6821 (3.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 12.17 b / 2.79 T (0.44%)
Total Exports: 12.17 B / 2.79 T (0.44%)

8481 (4.3%)

8462 (3%)

8451 (2.5%) 8439 (2.5%)

6513 (3.4%)

3330 (7.4%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6725 (2.7%)

6749 (1.2%) 6822 6716 6733

6514 8459 (1.8%) 6584 8423 (1.4%) 8429 8463 8434 6592 6516 6581 6531 6596 6522 6534 6589 6521 1211 (2.5%) 0575 (1.5%) 0572 0571 0576 0752 2631 0412 (1.1%) 2789 (2.2%) 2782

6727 6783 6731 (1.3%) 5629 (1.2%) 5622 5232 0012 (2.4%) 8483 0112

2789 (2.3%) 2742 2782 0542 0577 (22%) 2634 (3.8%) 2929 0548 0571 2632 0741 0572 2683 0812 (2.5%) 2919 2117 (0.86%) 0012 0011 2682 65926716 (0.81%) 0360

6552 8472 8452 8441 8431 8424 (1.1%) (0.95%) 8435 8433 0542 (3.5%) 0577 (4.4%)

0589 0565 0579 6732 (3%)

0546 0545 0914 6421 4235 6842 6973

5831 5834 5832 5621 5111 5138

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 135.24 b / 15.56 T (0.87%) Total Exports: 135.24 B / 15.56 T (0.87%)
7821 (4.8%) Trucks & vans 6725 (1.9%) Iron/steel billets 6733 (1.3%) Iron/steel shapes 6727 6822 7611 (1.9%) Color T.V. 7751 7753 7932 (2.3%) Ships & boats 7711 9710 (3.4%) Gold, non-monetary 6624 6428 6732 (8.4%) Iron/steel rods 7731 (1.9%) Electric wire 6842 (1%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7752 (1%) Refrigerators & freezers 7414 6973

7810 (7%) Cars

6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

6911 (1.1%) 8219

7849 (2.7%) Other vehicles parts 6731

8121

7758

2731

0544

7831 (1.4%) Public transportation vehicles

7139 (1.3%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 8451 (1.2%)

0577 (0.85%) Edible nuts 1211

0575 8472 (0.69%) 8441 8435 8452 8481 0579 6514 6513 6539 0589 0565 0484 0980 8931 6522 6531 8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery 6612 (1.1%) Cement 2879 2871 4312

0571 0572

8462 (2.6%) Knitted 8459 (1.7%) undergarments of cotton Other knitted outerwear

8423 (1.1%)

8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

5834 6210 5541

8439 (1.7%) Other women outerwear

6584 (1.4%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

6552 (1%)

8463

6613 (0.88%) Building & monumental

6595 (0.86%) Man-made carpets

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

328 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tURKMeNIstaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.217 / (115/26) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.34% / (109/26)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.965 0.97 0.975 0.98 0.985

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.6 k 1.2 k 960 640 320 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 329

POPULATION ≥ 5 M / (96/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.9 b / (83/19)

GDP ≥ USD 17 b / (97/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,374 / (83/22)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,568 / (66/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 46 % (35/10)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2631 (94%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 367.05 M / 4.30 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 367.05 M / 4.30 T (0.01%)

2001
3345

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.21 b / 5.90 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 2.21 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

3414 (89%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2631 (5.2%)

2116 2111 2681 6592

6513 (1.5%) 6522

3222

8462 8459 7923

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.91 b / 15.56 T (0.05%)

Total Exports: 7.91 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
6513 (1.2%)

3414 (94%) petroleum gases

6521

6584 2631 (1.9%)

5832 (1.4%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

330 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UGaNDa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.488 / (87/7) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.29% / (24/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
110 88 66 44 22 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 331

POPULATION ≥ 32 M / (35/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 b / (117/21)

GDP ≥ USD 14 b / (101/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 456 / (122/20)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 55 / (127/25) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (121/25)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0711 (57%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 172.46 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 172.46 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
6821 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 331.61 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 331.61 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

2631 (20%)

0711 (92%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2112

2111

2114
0741 (4.9%) 2634 (1.7%) 2112 0980 0813

7929

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.73 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.73 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
0542 6783 (2.4%) Other 6749 (2.1%) Other iron or steel tubes & worked iron/steel pipes sheets 7239 (1.1%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts 7821 (0.9%) N.E.S. 7361 (0.71%) 7162 0470 6612 (5%) Cement 7831 9710 (2.8%) Gold, non-monetary 2879 0342 2919 (0.93%) 0344 6116 0343 (6.4%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

0711 (26%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0612

7643 (4.5%) Television & radio transmitters

8928 (4%) Printed matter N.E.S.

2926 (2.7%) Live plants

0741 (3%) Tea

1212 (4.2%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

5530 (0.56%) 4312 (1.9%) 0484 (0.91%) Hydrogenated oils 1110 1123 (2.6%) Beer 8939 (0.52%)

5541 (1.3%) Soaps

5233

0721 (1.5%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 0611 (1.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane

4242 2225 (0.91%) 0422 (0.67%)

6732 (1.7%) 3510 (0.7%) 6581 Iron/steel rods 2690

2634 (0.83%) 0440

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

332 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UKRaINe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.559 / (42/15) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.73% / (7/3)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5
2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 333

POPULATION ≥ 46 M / (25/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 67 b / (45/8)

GDP ≥ USD 180 b / (45/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,899 / (80/21)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,448 / (69/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 37 % (53/13)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
6725 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.00 b / 4.30 T (0.12%)
Total Exports: 5.00 B / 4.30 T (0.12%)

1988
2815 (2.8%) 5621 (8.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 15.70 b / 5.90 T (0.27%)
Total Exports: 15.70 B / 5.90 T (0.27%)

2816 (6.1%)

6725 (11%)

6727 (2.9%) 6716 (2.8%)

2873 (1.7%) 2815 (1.6%)

2816 5225 (1.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6732 (6.8%)

6712 (4.6%)

6727 (3.6%)

6716 (3.2%)

5225 (6.7%)

6899 6841 (1.5%) 3222

6891 5629 (2.2%) 6821 8431 (1.8%) 2111 6114 8439 5121 (1.7%) 6517 5922 5113 5111

6746 (2.4%)

6783 (1.5%)

6899 6821 6841 (2.8%) 2782 (1.2%) 6998 3232

2482 3510 0224 (1.1%) 5922 0111 (1.2%)

6744 (4.4%) 6733 6745 6746 6731 (4.9%) 6760 7932 (2.6%) 2224 (2.8%) 6732 (5.1%)

4236 (1.8%) 0615 2631

6770

3222 6733 6745 6724 6712 (1.5%) 0412 (1.8%) 0430 (1.6%) 6749 6954 (3%) 7239 7267 6418 6770 4236 (1.7%) 2224 6259 7491 6731 6782 7432 7372 7416 7361 7915 7931 5621 (2.8%) 5331 (2.6%) (1.8%) 7188 5113 7919 6419 5232 7148 6251 6424 6744 (3.5%)

7752 2472 0230 8431 0240 6113 0730 0620

2820 (2.6%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 63.01 b / 15.56 T (0.43%) Total Exports: 67.01 B / 15.56 T (0.43%)
6744 (5.8%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets 6727 (3.7%) Iron/steel 4236 (3%) Sunflower seed 0412 (3%) Other wheat & coils oil meslin, unmilled 2815 (2.1%) Not agglomerated iron ore 2816 (1.6%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (0.83%) 0430 (2.6%) Unmilled barley 6716 (3%) Ferro-alloys 6733 (1.7%) Iron/steel shapes 6746 (1.5%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets 4242 6783 (2.3%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 6745 (1.4%) 6712 (1.3%) Pig 6732 (4.6%) Iron/steel rods Iron/steel 3 - & cast iron 4.75mm tick sheets 1222 5621 (3.3%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 5221 5629 5331 2226 (2.3%) Rape & colza seeds 0440 (1.2%) Unmilled maize 0813 6841 (0.59%) 2734 3221 (0.78%) 3232 (0.59%) 2782 5225 (1.3%)

6725 (16%) Iron/steel billets

6731 (2.1%) Iron/steel wire rod

7919 (1.1%) Railway track & vehicle parts N.E.S. 7431 7372

6782 (1.9%) NULL

7239 (0.94%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S.

7915 (3.4%) Not 7711 (1.2%) mechanically Electrical propelled railway for transformers freight

6419 7731 (1.2%) Electric wire 6911 2483 0730 (0.9%) 0240 6114

7148 (0.6%)

3510 (0.86%)

0484 1124

2820

7912

8431

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

334 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UNIteD aRab eMIRates
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.106 / (66/6) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.21% / (116/13)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.92 0.925 0.93 0.935 0.94 0.945

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.915

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
47 k 37.6 k 28.2 k 18.8 k 9.4 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 335

POPULATION ≥ 4.5 M / (100/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 210 b / (18/2)

GDP ≥ USD 261 b / (35/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 58,272 / (6/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 46,823 / (3/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 80 % (8/1)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
0751 (14%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.84 M / 228.33 b (0.001%)
Total Exports: 2.84 M / 228.33 B (0.001%)

1988
7932 (7.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 11.65 b / 2.79 T (0.42%)
Total Exports: 11.65 B / 2.79 T (0.42%)

0752 (7.2%)

5989 (11%)

3330 (82%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3413 6841 (8.6%)

7821 (2.9%) 7851 (2.1%) 2929 (1%) 0422 (18%) 0612 0460 5621 (3.6%) 2924 0577 (3.6%) 5922 (8.4%) 7283 6652 (3%) 6664 (2.7%) 5241 (1.3%) 3354 2482 (2.2%) 2471 (0.98%) 8999 (1.5%) 4312

2882 8973 6612 9710

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 210.03 b / 15.56 T (1.35%) Total Exports: 210.03 B / 15.56 T (1.35%)
9710 (7.8%) Gold, non-monetary 7821 (1.6%) Trucks & vans

3330 (69%) Crude petroleum

7188

6251

7643 (1.4%) Television & radio transmitters 8973 (3.2%) Precious jewellery 6613 (1.9%) Building & monumental stone

6672 (5.7%) Not mounted diamonds 0422 0612 1222

6812 (3.5%) Unwrought metals of platinum

6531 (0.91%) Continuous synthetic woven fabrics 5831

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

336 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UNIteD KINGDoM
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.558 / (9/2) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.16% / (77/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

22% OF WT

1.5

1.5

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

1

1

0.5

0.5

0

0

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
7.8 k 6.2 k 4.6 k 3.1 k 1.5 k 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 337

POPULATION ≥ 61 M / (21/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 476 b / (9/6)

GDP ≥ USD 2.7 T / (6/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 43,361 / (18/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,752 / (31/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (105/14)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
7810 (7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 15.58 b / 228.33 b (6.83%)
Total Exports: 15.58 B / 228.33 B (6.83%)

1988
3345 5148 6672 (5.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 145.53 b / 2.79 T (5.21%)
Total Exports: 145.53 B / 2.79 T (5.21%)

7244 (2.7%) 7821 (2.4%) 7452 6782 7271 6940 6991 7281 7783 7491

7411 (1.6%) 7841

5989 (1.9%) 8745 (1.3%) 8822

7224 (1.1%) 7139

5417 (1.9%) 6419 5335 8921 (1.3%) 5542

6424 5232 5530 6210

7842 (5.3%)

6812 (1.6%) 2782 6998

6831

6811 6851 7212 7499 (2.7%) 1124 (5.1%) 6953 8960 26658928 6512 (1%) (0.89%) (0.85%) 7851 2820 7518 8942 6822 7131 7928 7932 6960 7852 6638 6118 (1.2%) (1.5%) (1.4%) (1.8%) 6665 7788 6747 7731 7512 7781 (1%) 0430 1222 6749 8731 6770 0730 (1.2%) 8811 6911 5513

5413 6573

6251 7491 7449 8743 7234 7431 7162 7138 7436 8741 9510 7132 7441 7439 7428 6418 7169 7493 7413 7452 7599 7523 (2%) 7525 8983 7528 (2.5%) 7611 7788 7929 (2.6%)

7492

5989 8748 5111 (1.2%) (1.1%) 8720 8822 5331 5156 5148 2331 (0.86%) 5137 5311 3330 (8.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5145 8742 5417 (2.7%) 5982 8921 5911 1124 (2.5%)

5530 8939 (0.88%) 5542 5413 0819 5334 5419 8922 5232 8960 (1.4%) 6911 6997

7518 7648 7643 7781 7591 7923 7931 (3.7%) (1.3%) 6672 (4.4%) 7149 7148 6725 6733 6252

7924 (2.1%)

0224 6812 2782 0112 (0.86%) 2882 2820 5241 8928

5823

1222

0430

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 476.24 b / 15.56 T (3.06%) Total Exports: 476.24 B / 15.56 T (3.06%)
7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans 7162 (1.1%) AC electric motors & generators 7492 (1%) Valves 5417 (9.8%) Medicaments 5989 (1.9%) Chemical products 5156 (1%) 5416

7810 (10%) Cars

7234 (1.4%) Construction & mining machinery 7139 7441

7239 8741 (0.92%) (0.79%) Bulldozers, angledozers & 7436 parts levellers N.E.S. 5530 (1.6%) Perfumery 8939 (0.9%) 5419 & cosmetics Miscellaneous 8922 articles of plastic 5542 6424 8921 (1.1%) 5335 6832 7188 9710 (2.7%) Gold, non-monetary 7788 (1.2%) Other electrical machinery & 8973 (1.5%) equipment N.E.S. 7641 6812 (1.6%) Unwrought metals of platinum

5148 8996 5111 8742

8720

8744 8748

5154 5233

5827

7283 7224 7132 (1.6%) 8743 7929 (3.9%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7149 (3.3%) Parts of gas & reaction engines 7138

1124 (2.5%) Alcoholic beverages

8960 (1.9%) Works of art

7599 (1.5%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7523

7144 (1.7%) Reaction engines

7528 6725

8841

2882 (0.99%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6672 (3.1%) Not mounted diamonds 6811 (0.89%) Unwrought silver

0980 2820 (1.3%) Iron & steel waste

0484

6996

0015

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

338 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UNIteD states of aMeRICa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.447 / (13/1) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.01% / (91/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
4.3 k 3.4 k 2.5 k 1.7 k 860 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 339

POPULATION ≥ 304 M / (3/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.3 T / (3/1)

GDP ≥ USD 14 T / (1/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 47,209 / (13/1)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,271 / (42/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 9 % (125/2)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). North America.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 36.27 b / 228.33 b (15.89%)
Total Exports: 36.27 B / 228.33 B (15.89%)

1988
0813 (1.6%) 4232 5513 0459 0460 (1.2%) 0421 1222

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 314.77 b / 2.79 T (11.26%)
Total Exports: 314.77 B / 2.79 T (11.26%)

7842 (9.8%)

9510 (4%)

5989 (2.4%) 8745 (2.2%)

8822 2331 2222 (4.6%) (0.92%) 5148 0440 (4%) 5155 5137 8720

7849 (5.6%)

7132 7234 7239 7452

7449 7212

7499 (2.8%) 7411 (2.2%) 7821 (2.1%)

7452 7822 7783 7371 7283

7281 7212

3345 8921 (1.1%) 5413

7721 (1.4%)

7284 7139 7493 8749 (1.4%)

6940 7431 8748 5989 8822 (1.5%) 7416 8720 6954 5839 5138 5137 5148 3345 8996 5161 5416 2331 0819 5413 8922 8921 2471 (1.2%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0440 (2.6%)

2222 (2.3%)

0813 2631 (1%) 5832 0577

0412 1222 1212

0819 6419 2713 2631 (0.84%) (2.8%) 5622 5221 6424 5621

7599 (4.4%)

7764 (3%) 7523 7924 (3.9%) (2.1%) 7929 (2.3%)

6940 6991 7518 (1.8%) 7512 7928 (2.4%) (0.83%) 8813 7131 (2.1%) 7788 (1.4%)

8731 (1.7%)

5335 2471 (2.2%) 6413 2516 6842 6349 6953 (0.94%)

6998 5225 2820 8928 2789 (0.82%) (1.3%) 4113 0116 0980 6811 3354 5121 2741 2111

7768 (1.6%) 7525 (1.2%)

8983 7522 (1.3%) (1%) 7788 (1.2%)

7528 (1%)

2483 3222 (1.9%) 7414 2882 2782 9710 5241

0116 0114 0342 2111 0980 0579

7149 (2%)

7144

7731 2517 6413 7131

7648

7521

2820 3354 (0.76%) 2871 5823

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.30 T / 15.56 T (8.36%)
7721 (1.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans 8743 (0.48%) 8741 7162 7442

Total Exports: 1.30 T / 15.56 T (8.36%)
8720 (1.7%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5989 (1.7%) Chemical products 5416 8748 8744 8742 8939 (0.76%) 5530 (0.72%) 5831 5629 (0.77%) Polyethylene 5221 5542 8921

7810 (5.3%) Cars

7849 (3.4%) Other vehicles parts

7234 (1%) 7492 Construction & mining machinery 7132 (0.85%) 7436 Internal combustion engines for 6940 motor vehicles 7449

7452

5156 5137

5112

7742

7284 (1.6%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7239 (1.6%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 7924 (4.1%) Aircrafts of more 7929 (2.4%) than 15 tons Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

5839 (0.9%) 5148 Other polymerization 5161 & 8996 (0.82%) copolymarization products 6672 (1.6%) Not mounted diamonds 2882 (0.71%) 6812 6842

9710 (2%) Gold, non-monetary 7764 (4.2%) Electronic microcircuits 8973 2890 (0.61%)

2820 (1.1%) Iron & steel waste

3222 (0.84%) 2631

8960 2517 (0.83%) Works of art 0114 0113 0111

5823

7599 (1.5%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7149 (2%) Parts of gas & reaction engines 7923 (0.75%) 7144 (0.74%) 7763 (0.84%) 7523 (0.82%)

7788 (0.81%) 7528

8841

2222 (1.6%) Soya beans 0412 (1.2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0440 (1.5%) Unmilled maize

0980

8931

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

340 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

URUGUaY
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.109 / (56/6) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.53% / (61/12)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

2.5

2.5
2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86 0.88

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045

22% OF WT

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 341

POPULATION ≥ 3.3 M / (112/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6 b / (90/14)

GDP ≥ USD 31 b / (80/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,351 / (48/5)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,794 / (64/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 19 % (102/16)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2681 (27%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 176.88 M / 228.33 b (0.08%)
Total Exports: 176.88 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

1988
0421 (2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.50 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)
Total Exports: 1.50 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

0111 (23%)

6512 (12%)

6114 (10%)

0421 (4.9%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0422 8481 (3.3%) (2%) 8451 (1.2%) 8421

0422 (1.1%) 0813 4241 6512 (15%) 2682 (3.9%) 0149 (2.9%) 2686 (1.8%) 6114 (3.8%) 2685 0112 6130 (1.6%) 0116 2116 (2.7%) 2111 2117 0011 6612 (1.9%) 2734 2733 6123

2681 (3.9%)

2682 (2.5%)

2687 (2.3%) 2686

6129 2919 6113 (1.5%) 0342 (1.6%) 0343 0360

2222 0571 (1.5%) (1.2%) 0813 0430 0482 (1.1%) 9710 (7.6%)

8431 8424 (1.1%) 6542 (2%) 6522 5913 5311

0111 (6.8%)

8483 (2.6%) 0012 0344 (2.3%) 0149 4113 0116 0240 (1.1%)

5334 (1.7%)

2687 (2.8%)

0814 5922

5622 5542 6624 2472 6252 8211 0579 0980 6412

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.98 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 5.98 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
0112 (1.4%) Sheep & goat meat 0011 (1.2%) 2222 (6.3%) Soya beans 0422 (6.7%) Semi or wholly milled rice 0482 (3.3%) Roasted & unroasted malt, including flour

0111 (23%) Bovine meat

4113 (1%) 0149 0116 0115 8483 0224 (3.6%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream 6114 (4.7%) Bovine & equine leather 0342 (2.4%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 2472 (3.3%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of 0344 (0.86%) non-coniferous Frozen fish fillets 2460 (3.2%) Pulpwood 6342 (0.91%) Sheets of plywood 8211 2483 0240 (2.9%) Cheese & curd 0223 (1.1%) Fresh milk & cream 0230 (0.67%) 2919 (1.2%) 9710 (1.3%) Gold, non-monetary 6783 (0.89%) 8931 (2.6%) Closable plastic packing 0914 0571 (1.2%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines

0412 (2.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

0421 (1.8%) Unprepared rice in the husk or husked

6512 (2.4%) Wool yarn or animal hair

2681

6210 (1.3%) Materials of rubber 5834

2682

5542 (1.2%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S.

5231

5629

7832 (0.67%) 6542 8431

5912 (0.52%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

342 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

UzbeKIstaN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.658 / (96/24) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.61% / (55/22)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3 2.5

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

22% OF WT

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
260 208 156 104 52 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 343

POPULATION ≥ 27 M / (39/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7 b / (87/20)

GDP ≥ USD 28 b / (85/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,023 / (111/25)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 255 / (110/26) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (83/20)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1994
2631 (90%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.20 b / 4.30 b (0.03%)
Total Exports: 1.20 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

2001
6861 (1.4%) 6811 5241 (1.6%) 6821 6521 (1.3%) 2633 5621 6822 0344

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.05 b / 5.90 T (0.03%)
Total Exports: 2.05 B / 5.90 T (0.03%)

2631 (40%)

3414 (16%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

9710 (7.5%)

6821 (3.8%) 5241 (3.4%)

6861 (1.8%) 6513 (6%) 6521 (2%) 0579 (2.1%) 0545 0565 6732 3510

6522 0575 0544 0813 1211 2613

6577 (1.2%)

5621 6822 (0.74%) 2919

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 6.97 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.97 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)
7810 (11%) Cars 2631 (8.5%) Raw cotton

3414 (35%) petroleum gases

0575 (1%) 6822 5241 (8.1%) Radioactive chemical elements 9710 (5.1%) Gold, non-monetary 6821 (5.8%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys 5629 (3.2%) Fertilizers 7711 6513 (3.1%) Cotton yarn 8462

5621 (2.1%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 6612 (1.3%) Cement 2890 6861 (1.7%) Unwrought zinc & alloys

5831 (1.3%) 0579 (1.8%) Fresh or Polyethylene dried fruit N.E.S.

6732 (1.1%) Iron/steel rods 7731

0545 (0.54%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

344 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

veNezUela, Rb
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.109 / (111/21) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.23% / (115/21)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.982 0.984 0.986 0.988 0.99 0.992 0.994

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 345

POPULATION ≥ 28 M / (38/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 85 b / (38/3)

GDP ≥ USD 312 b / (30/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 11,150 / (43/2)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,039 / (50/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (74/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 2.81 b / 228.33 b (1.23%)
Total Exports: 2.81 B / 228.33 B (1.23%)

1988
3330 (74%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 10.56 b / 2.79 T (0.38%)
Total Exports: 10.56 B / 2.79 T (0.38%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

3330 (97%)

6841 (8.9%)

6746 6783 6725 6731 6842 (2.3%)

6732 6417 2815 (2.2%) 5621 3345 2873 0342

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 84.88 b / 15.56 T (0.55%) Total Exports: 84.88 B / 15.56 T (0.55%)

3330 (95%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

346 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

vIetNaM
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.181 / (67/11) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.48% / (12/4)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.74 0.76 0.78 0.8 0.82 0.84 0.86

2

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
730 584 438 292 146 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 347

POPULATION ≥ 86 M / (13/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 63 b / (48/10)

GDP ≥ USD 90 b / (59/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,047 / (109/14)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 728 / (86/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 70 % (14/5)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 32.04 M / 228.33 b (0.01%)
Total Exports: 32.04 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

1988
2820 (4%) 2221 (1.8%) 2919 (3.1%) 0360 (1.2%) 7821 (1.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 539.00 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)
Total Exports: 539.00 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2320 (53%)

0741 (4.2%)

0360 (38%)

2924 (5.2%) 0711 (3.7%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

2222 (2.5%)

0440 4249 5513

0422 (2.4%)

0752 0751 0548 3330 (9.7%)

2221 (1.6%) 0741 3221

0577 (1.2%) 2225 6597 6953

2640 2922 (0.96%) 7932 (1.8%) 0711 (3.8%) 0819 (3.6%) 0812 0488 2924 (1.1%) 0752 8997 (2.1%) 2929 (1.1%) 0440 (2.1%) 4234 2613 5513

2472 (2.6%)

3222
6597 6611 0980

2820 (3.2%) 7763 8942 0586 (0.87%) 0579 8947 8482 0980

0372 2919 (1.8%)

0344 2111

8997 (1.7%) 6584 8441 (0.92%) 8462 0350 0342 2120 (1.4%) 0251 8423 8429

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 62.76 b / 15.56 T (0.4%) Total Exports: 62.76 B / 15.56 T (0.4%)
8439 (2.4%) Other women outerwear 8451 (2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8462 (1.5%) Knitted undergarments of cotton 8423 (1.5%) Men's trousers 6589 8421 0711 (4%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 2320 (2.9%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 0422 (5.4%) Semi or wholly milled rice 0577 (1.7%) Edible nuts 7518 (2.4%) Office machines N.E.S. 7638 (0.78%)

8510 (8.9%) Footwear

7641

8310 (1.1%)

8431 (0.98%)

8429 8452

6727 (0.83%) 6725 (0.7%) 6749

7162

7161

8441 (0.72%) 8459 (2.5%) Other knitted outerwear 8424 3330 (19%) Crude petroleum 3221 (2.6%) Anthracite

0360 (3.4%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or 8219 (3.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S. salted crustaceans & molluscs

0344 (3%) Frozen fish fillets

0372 (0.78%) 0342 (0.66%)

7731 (1.9%) Electric wire 2460 6649 8211 (1.5%) Chairs & seats

8939

5621

8931

0579

8973 (0.72%)
* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0371

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

348 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

YeMeN
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.042 / (107/12) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.86% / (96/8)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

22% OF WT

1

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97

2

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.92

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
360 288 216 144 72 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 349

POPULATION ≥ 23 M / (43/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.8 b / (85/15)

GDP ≥ USD 27 b / (86/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,175 / (103/16)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 338 / (103/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (68/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 56.75 M / 228.33 b (0.02%)
Total Exports: 56.75 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

1988
2114 (5.2%) 2919 (3.1%) 2117 (1.2%) 2111 0350 (8.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 170.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)
Total Exports: 170.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

3330 (27%)

2783 (6%) 2116 (7.8%)

3330 (82%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

0360 (10%)

2631 (20%)

2223 (3.6%)

0350 0616 (1.6%) 2119
9610 (9.6%)

2922 (2.9%)

0711 (1.4%)

7641 (1.1%) 3345

2634

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 7.75 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.75 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)
0341 (1.1%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 0342 (0.93%) 0360 (0.71%)

3330 (88%) Crude petroleum

7234 (1.1%) Construction & mining machinery 7831 (0.66%) 7931 3352 (1.4%) Mineral tars

0573

1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

350 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

zaMbIa
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.933 / (105/14) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.06% / (85/15)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2

2

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 351

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (61/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 b / (93/8)

GDP ≥ USD 14 b / (102/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,140 / (104/12)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 406 / (101/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 36 % (56/12)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
6821 (98%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 756.81 M / 228.33 b (0.33%)
Total Exports: 756.81 M / 228.33 B (0.33%)

1988
6821 (88%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.13 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 1.13 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

6899 6822 (3.9%)

6861 (1.1%) 1212 6811 0574 6673 0575 (1.8%) 2631 6521

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 5.12 b / 15.56 T (0.03%)

Total Exports: 5.12 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)
6822 (24%) Worked copper & copper alloys

6821 (44%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

6999 (6.1%) Other base metal manufactures N.E.S. 2871 (14%) Copper

1211 (1.4%) Unstripped tobacco 0611 (1.2%) Raw sugar beet & cane 7731 (1.1%) Electric wire 5222

0440 (1.1%) 0460 (0.56%) 2631 0546

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

352 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

zIMbabWe
ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.327 / (80/6) EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.79% / (6/1)
*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008
PRODUCT SPACE
PRODUCT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 PRODUCT NOT EXPORTED WITH RCA>1 NODE SIzE IS PROPORTIONAL TO WORLD TRADE

2008

EXPORT OPPORTUNITY SPECTRUM
3
FRACTION OF PRODUCTS WITH RCA > 1

3

2

2

22% OF WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products
0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94

Average Complexity of Missing Products

1

1

6% OF WT 2% OF WT 0.8% OF WT 0.06% OF WT

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

Distance

Opportunity Gain

2008
200 160 120 80 40 0

EvOLUTION OF EXPORT COMPOSITION

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 353

POPULATION ≥ 12 M / (62/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 b / (118/22)

GDP ≥ USD 4.2 b / (124/22) GDPpc ≥ USD 341 / (125/23)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 138 / (119/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 41 % (44/9)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

SHIPS

AIRCRAFT

HOME & OFFICE

TROPICAL AGRIC.

TEXTILE & FAbRICS

bEER/SPIRITS & CIGS.

MACHINERY

PULP & PAPER

CONSTR. MATL. & EqPT.

CHEMICALS & HEALTH

METAL PRODUCTS

OTHER CHEMICALS

INOR. SALTS & ACIDS

MILK & CHEESE

ANIMAL FIbERS

MEAT & EGGS

FISH & SEAFOOD

CEREALS & vEG. OILS

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS

TObACCO

MISC. AGRICULTURE

NOT CLASSIFIED

GARMENTS

PRECIOUS STONES

1968
2784 (11%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 24.65 M / 228.33 b (0.01%)
Total Exports: 24.65 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

1988
1123 (7.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.13 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)
Total Exports: 1.13 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

6673 (5.7%)

5417 5542 6424 5530 (1.8%) (0.97%) 6419 5335 5322 (4.3%) 5621 (1.6%)

1212 (15%)

2631 (6.5%)

6716 (23%)

2789 (5%)

6421 (3.8%) 5221 6911 (2.6%) 6732 (1.2%) 0116 0224 6618 6924 6210 7831 7211 6991 6647 8510 (1.8%)

0914 (1.2%) 0980 (0.85%) 6575 6517 8310 6513

0611 (3.4%) 1211 (6.2%) 1223 1213 6831 (13%) 2927 2784 (5.6%)

0711 (2.1%)

0111 (13%)

0412 6821 (3.2%) 6725 0111 (4.2%) 2731 2881 (1.6%) (0.95%) 6114 8423 6513 8439 6871 6521

0612 0571 7731 6351 6940 6716 6733 (1.7%) (1%) (1.1%) 6996 6921 6353 1222 0814 6783 8928 6951 6935 8993 0141 7781 6770 8960 6423

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

TOTAL EXPORTS: 1.72 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1212 (5.5%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

Total Exports: 1.72 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)
1222 (1.6%) Cigarretes 7821 (3.5%) Trucks & vans 8743 (3.3%) Gas, 8946 liquid & electric control instruments 6991 6535 (0.74%) 8422 (2.5%) Men's suits 6513 (3.4%) Cotton yarn

2927 (12%) Flora

1211

1213

6954 2631 (5.5%) Raw cotton 0612 (1.7%) Refined sugar 6716 (3%) Ferro-alloys

7188

7711 (2.6%) Electrical transformers

2872 (18%) Nickel

0572 0813 (0.99%) Fresh or dried citrus N.E.S 2731 2789

8219 (1%)

2482 (0.98%)

8960 (2.7%) Works of art

5137 (1.7%) Monocarboxylic acids & derivatives 8748 (1.5%) Electrical measuring & controlling instruments N.E.S.

FOOD PROCESSING

ELECTRONICS

AGROCHEMICALS

PETROCHEMICALS

LEATHER

bOILERS

5232 (0.71%) 5231 (0.67%)

3232 (0.99%)

2471

6612 (0.97%)

6672 (0.9%) Not mounted diamonds

0545 (1.6%) 0586 Other fresh or chilled vegetables

0546 (0.78%) 6421

8928 (4.1%) Printed matter N.E.S.

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

MINING

FRUIT

COAL

OIL

CHE 1 SWE 2 AUT 3 GBR 4 JPN 5 FRA 6 USA 7 ITA 8 BEL 9 NOR 10 FIN 11 DNK 12 NLD 13 HKG 14 HUN 15 POL 16 IRL 17 PAN 18 PRT 19 KOR 20 ISR 21 CAN 22 BGR 23 ESP 24 CHN 25 ROU 26 SLV 27 SGP 28 JOR 29 CRI 30 NZL 31 AUS 32 URY 33 GRC 34 MEX 35 CHL 36 GTM 37 IND 38 LBN 39 MAR 40 MRT 41 ARG 42 CUB 43 COL 44 EGY 45 DZA 46 TUN 47 ZAF 48 MNG 49 ZWE 50 ALB 51 PAK 52 VEN 53 JAM 54 HND 55 NIC 56 TTO 57 SEN 58 SYR 59 VNM 60 OMN 61 PER 62 TUR 63 PHL 64 ECU 65 LBR 66 BOL 67 IRN 68 PRY 69 MYS 70 BRA 71 THA 72 ZMB 73 MWI 74 CIV 75 GIN 76 MLI 77 KHM 78 LAO 79 LKA 80 KEN 81 GHA 82 MDG 83 COG 84 DOM 85 ETH 86 SAU 87 IDN 88 CMR 89 AGO 90 PNG 91 MOZ 92 TZA 93 UGA 94 SDN 95 GAB 96 NGA 97 QAT 98 KWT 99 MUS 100 LBY 101

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

19

JPN 1 CHE 2 SWE 3 FIN 4 AUT 5 GBR 6 SGP 7 KOR 8 HUN 9 FRA 10 USA 11 ITA 12 DNK 13 IRL 14 ISR 15 BEL 16 MEX 17 POL 18 NLD 19 ESP 20 HKG 21 ROU 22 CHN 23 NOR 24 THA 25 MYS 26 PRT 27 PAN 28 CAN 29 BGR 30 LBN 31 TUR 32 BRA 33 NZL 34 TUN 35 JOR 36 CRI 37 GRC 38 IND 39 COL 40 ZAF 41 ARG 42 URY 43 PHL 44 SLV 45 IDN 46 DOM 47 ALB 48 GTM 49 TTO 50 EGY 51 CHL 52 VNM 53 AUS 54 SAU 55 LKA 56 SYR 57 MUS 58 SEN 59 QAT 60 MAR 61 KEN 62 ZWE 63 HND 64 JAM 65 CUB 66 PRY 67 PAK 68 OMN 69 PER 70 UGA 71 MDG 72 NIC 73 KWT 74 ECU 75 TZA 76 ZMB 77 LAO 78 GHA 79 KHM 80 BOL 81 CIV 82 VEN 83 ETH 84 IRN 85 MWI 86 MNG 87 LBR 88 MOZ 89 MLI 90 GAB 91 LBY 92 CMR 93 DZA 94 GIN 95 NGA 96 PNG 97 AGO 98 COG 99 MRT 100 SDN 101

986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

GLOSSARY

DISTANCE

is a characteristic of a country-product pair. it measures how “far” a product is from a country’s current productive capabilities. it is calculated by adding the products in which the country does not have comparative advantage, weighted by their proximity to the product in question.

PERSONbYTE

is the maximum amount of productive knowledge that an average person can hold.

PRODUCT COMMUNITY

DIvERSITY is a country characteristic. It is the number of products that a country exports with comparative advantage. E C O N O M I C C O M P L E X I T Y I N D E X (ECI) is a country characteristic. It is a measure of how diversified and complex a country’s export basket is. It is calculated as the mathematical limit –or eigenvector– of a measure based on how many products a country exports and how many other exporters each product has. OPPORTUNIT Y vALUE
is a characteristic of a country. It measures how well a country is positioned in the product space by calculating the distance of the country to the products it is currently not exporting with comparative advantage, weighted by the complexity value of each product. This number is higher for countries that are closer to more products and to products that are more complex.

is a product characteristic. A product belongs to a community if it is closer to the other members of the community than it is to products outside of the community.

P R O D U C T C O M P L E X I T Y I N D E X (PCI) is a product characteristic. It is a measure of how complex a product is. It is calculated as the mathematical limit of a measure based on how many countries export the product and how diversified those exporters are. PROXIMITY
is a characteristic of a pair of products. It measures the minimum probability that a country exports product 1 given that it exports product 2 or vice versa.

REvEALED COMPARATIvE ADvANTAGE

(RCA) is a characteristic of a country-product pair. It is calculated as the ratio of the share of a product in a country’s export basket to the share of that product in world trade. A country has RCA greater than 1 in a certain product if that product represents a larger share of its exports than of world exports.

O P P O R T U N I T Y G A I N is a characteristic of a country–product pair. It measures how much the Opportunity Value of a country will change if the country develops the capacity to export the product in question with comparative advantage. PEOPLEbYTE
is more than one personbyte. It needs to be embedded in an organization or network.

UbIqUITY is a product characteristic. It measures how many countries export a given product with comparative advantage.

REFERENCES & FURTHER READING

SECTION 1: WHAT DO WE MEAN bY ECONOMIC COMPLEXIT Y?
· Nonaka, I. & Takeuchi, H. “The Knowledge-Creating Company: How Japanese Companies Create the Dynamics of innovation,” Oxford University Press (1991). · Read, L.E. “I, pencil. My family tree as told to Leonard E. Read,” The Foundation for Economic Education (2006). · Polanyi, M. “The Tacit Dimension,” Doubleday & Co (1966). · Arrow, K. “The economic implications of learning by doing,” Review of Economic Studies 29(3), 155-73 (1962).

SECTION 2: HOW DO WE MEASURE ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY?
· Hidalgo, C.A. & Hausmann, R. “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 10570-10575 (2009). · Hidalgo, C.A. “The Dynamics of Economic Complexity and the Product Space over a 42 year period,” CID Working Paper No 189, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (2009). · Hausmann, R. & Hidalgo, C.A. “The network structure of economic output” Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Growth.

REFERENCES
· Balassa, B., “The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine - A Reappraisal,” Journal of Political Economy 72, 584-596 (1964). · Feenstra, R.; Lipsey, R.; Deng, H.; Ma, A. & Mo, H. “World Trade Flows: 1962-2000” NBER working paper 11040. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA (2005). · United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/), accessed in August 2011.

SECTION 4: HOW IS COMPLEXITY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER APPROACHES? REFERENCES
· The World Economic Forum, “The global competitiveness report,” (various years). · Barro, R. & Lee, J-W. “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010,” NBER Working Paper No. 1590 (2010). · Kaufmann, D. & Kraay, A. “Governance Indicators: Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going?” Policy Research Working Paper 4370. Washington, DC: World Bank (2008). · Hanushek, E.A. & Woessmann, L. “The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Literature 46(3), 607668 (2008).

covery,” Journal of Development Economics 72(2), 603-633 (2003). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space,” CID Working Paper No 128. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (2006). · Hausmann, R.; Hwang, J. & Rodrik, D. “What you export matters,” Journal of Economic Growth 12(1), 1-25 (2007). · Hidalgo, C. A.; Klinger, B.; Barabási, A. & Hausmann, R. “The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations,” Science 317, 482-487 (2007). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “South Africa’s export predicament,” The Economics of Transition 16(4), 609-637 (2008). · European Bank for reconstruction and development “Trade, product mix and Growth,” Transition Report, Chapter 4 (2008). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “Policies for Achieving Structural Transformation in the Caribbean,” Private Sector Development Discussion Paper 2. Washington, D.C.: IDB (2010). · Hausmann, R., Klinger, B. & Lopez-Calix, J. “Export Diversification in Algeria” in Lopez-Calix, J.; Walkenhorst, P. & Diop, N. (editors). Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank, Washington DC (2010). · United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) “Building the productive capacity of the least developed countries,” In Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2011, Chapter 4 (2011). · Hidalgo, C.A. “Discovering Southern and East Africa’s Industrial Opportunities,” German Marshall Fund Economic Policy Series (2011). · Hidalgo, C.A. “Thinking Outside the Cube,” CA Hidalgo Physicsworld 21(12), 34-37 (2008). · Hidalgo, C.A. & Hausmann, R. “A Network View of Economic Development,” Developing Alternatives 12(1), 5-10 (2008).
P R O D U C T C L A S S I f I C AT I O n S A n D COMMUnITY DISCOvERY ALgORIThMS

S E C T I O N 5 : H O W D O E S E C O N O M I C C O M P L E X I T Y E v O Lv E ?
· Hausmann, R. & Rodrik, D. “Economic development as self-dis-

· Leamer, E. E. “Sources of Comparative Advantage: Theory and Evidence,” The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1984). · Lall, S. “The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985-1998,” Queen Elizabeth House Working Paper #44, University of Oxford (2000). · Rosvall, M. & Bergstrom, C. “Maps of random walks on complex networks reveal community structure,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, 1118, (2008). · Coscia, M.; Giannotti, F. & Pedreschi, D. “A classification for community discovery methods in complex networks,” Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 4(5), 512–546, (2011).

COLOPHON
P A P E R : 80# Accent Opaque text and Productolith Points Cover. C O L O R S : 5/5. T Y P O G R A P H Y : Knockout & Caecilia LT.
This book was printed at Puritan Press, New Hampshire, during October 2011.

“A map does not tell people where to go, but it does help them determine their destination and chart their journey towards it. A map empowers by describing opportunities that would not be obvious in the absence of it. If the secret to development is the accumulation of productive knowledge, at a societal rather than individual level, then the process necessarily requires the involvement of many explorers, not just a few planners. This is why the maps we provide in this Atlas are intended for everyone to use.”

http://atlas.media.mit.edu

THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXIT Y

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY

| Ricardo Hausmann | César A. Hidalgo | Sebastián Bustos | Michele Coscia | Sarah Chung | Juan Jimenez | Alexander Simoes | Muhammed A. Yıldırım |