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NY-01 GSG for Tim Bishop (Aug. 2012)

NY-01 GSG for Tim Bishop (Aug. 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 30, 2012
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MEMORANDUM TO:   Interested Parties FROM:   RE:   DATE:   Global Strategy Group NY-1 Survey Results August 29, 2012

Tim Bishop Holds Strong Lead Heading Into Final Months of Campaign
With just over two months to go until Election Day, Tim Bishop is in a solid position to win reelection – with a strong personal favorability rating and a vote share above 50% in his re-match against Republican Randy Altschuler. Key findings from a recent poll conducted by Global Strategy Group just this week (interviews conducted August 26-28, 2012) among 402 likely general election voters (margin of error +/- 4.9%) are as follows: • Tim Bishop holds a 14-point lead over repeat challenge Randy Altschuler. Bishop leads Altschuler 53% to 39% with 8% of voters undecided. Bishop’s lead with Independent voters is even greater, among whom he leads 54% to 35%. Tim Bishop remains a respected and well-liked elected official. More than half of likely voters hold a favorable opinion of Congressman Bishop (54%), while just 36% hold an unfavorable opinion. Meanwhile, just 42% of voters have a favorable opinion of Altschuler and 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Most of Altschuler’s favorable rating is driven by his alignment with the unpopular Tea Party. The Tea Party movement is very unpopular in the district (35% favorable/50% unfavorable) – a change from August of 2010 when the Tea Party was a net positive in the district (43%/38%). And among voters favorable to the Tea Party, Altschuler’s favorable rating is very high (71%/9%). But among Independent and moderate voters who don’t hold positive views of the Tea Party – a key swing vote in this campaign – Altschuler’s favorable rating is net negative (30%/36%) and Bishop’s favorable rating is very strong (69%/17%). The national political environment favors the Democrats in NY-1 – another change from 2010. The Democrats lead the generic ballot for Congress by four points (46% for a generic Democrat/42% for a generic Republican). At this time in the last election cycle, it was the Republicans who held a four point lead (37%/41% in August 2010). Additionally, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the district (50% to 45%).

The bottom line is this: Tim Bishop is a popular elected official who remains the favorite to win re-election in New York’s 1st Congressional District. Bishop holds a significant 14-point lead over his conservative challenger. In addition, since the Republican wave of 2010 (a year in which Bishop edged out Altschuler), the political winds have shifted. Altschuler’s alignment with the Tea Party may have been an asset in 2010, but the Tea Party is an unpopular force in Suffolk County politics today and a drag on Altschuler’s campaign.  

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