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LED Supply/Demand Outlook

October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, US Pira Intertech
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Outline
State of LED Supply
Regional LED Manufacturer LED Tool Maker

LED Demand
Small/Medium Displays Large Area Displays Lighting Automotive/Signaling Others

Supply/Demand Reactor Forecast Forecast Deviations


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LED Supply

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Supply Model
Methodology
Survey Tool Makers and LED Producers by: Tool Model
Capacity Install Dates Bookings

Results
Fab/Wafer Capacity Epi Yield Binned Die Capability Production by
Tool Maker LED Producer Region Wafer

Model the production based on:


Average Die Size/application Yields/Application Epi Binning Calculate Runs/day Apply Fab Utilization Packaging Yield

Application

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MOCVD Installed Base


MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to 2010
3500 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 1500 30% 1000 20% 10% 0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Growth 2000 Reactors Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth 3000

2500 Installed Reactors

500

Source: YMR
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MOCVD Installed Base by Region


Chinese government supporting tool purchases:
13 regional industrial bases Land/Tax Abatements US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies
Taiwan Japan USA 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Korea China Europe

Share

Source: YMR

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MOCVD Supplier Installs


New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010
Company Aixtron Veeco Nippon Sanso Other Total Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth Q2'09 15 7 0 0 22 Q3'09 41 22 75 0 138 Q4'09 70 36 75 0 181 31% Q1'10 101 48 75 0 224 24% Q2'10 130 81 225 7 443 98% 1914% Q3'10e 159 100 225 12 496 12% 259%

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

Wafer Capacity (000)


Wafer size shifting from 2 and 3 to 4 6 wafers increase market share in terms of capacity
Wafer (000) Wafer Size 2" 3" 4" 6" Total 2009 45255 5070 11130 356 61812 2010 60751 4378 30257 1710 97096 Growth 34% -14% 172% 380% 57% 2009 Share 73% 8% 18% 1% 100% 2010 Share 63% 5% 31% 2% 100%

sq. m (000) Wafer Size 2" 3" 4" 6" Total 2009 Area 92 23 90 6 212 2010 Area 123 20 245 31 420 Growth 34% -14% 172% 380% 98% 2009 Share 43% 11% 43% 3% 100% 2010 Share 29% 5% 58% 7% 100%

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

Die Capacity(m) and Growth


Total Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth
140% 100000 120% 80000 100% Die(m) Growth

60000

80%

60% 40000 40% 20000 20%

0 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10

0%

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

Binned Die(m)and Growth


Includes epi and binned die yields Includes utilization and packaging yields 20000
18000 100% 16000 14000 Binned Die (m) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 0% 2000 0 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 -20% 40% 80% Total Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth 120%

20%

Source: YMR
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10

Growth

60%

Binned Die Regional Share


Taiwan Japan USA
45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Share 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10

Korea China Europe

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m)


Binned Die Production
Die (m) Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Nichia LG Group Epistar HUGA Tekcore Samsung LED Epivalley Seoul Opto Forepi Genesis Photonics Others Total Company Q1'09 1099 259 609 326 382 328 525 92 369 391 4037 8417 Q2'09 1099 261 623 339 382 337 528 97 369 391 4050 8478 Q3'09 1099 281 629 351 382 351 533 105 369 391 4094 8586 Q4'09 1099 373 714 430 397 390 533 123 385 391 4211 9046 Q1'10 1118 399 636 467 421 399 502 133 392 369 3926 8762 Q2'10 1279 619 730 641 535 516 521 348 445 411 4686 10731 Q3'10 1636 836 773 749 713 625 620 554 487 427 5726 13148

Source: YMR
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Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD)


Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept. 2010 due to LED (LCD) TV inventories
2009 2010 2009 Growth 2010 Growth 5000 40% 4000 TWD (m) 30% 20% 3000 10% 2000 0% -10% 1000 -20% 0
Au gu st Se pt em be r O ct ob er N ov em be r De ce m be r Ja nu ar y Fe br ua ry M ar ch Ju ne Ap ril M ay Ju ly

50%

-30%

Source: Company Reports


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LED Demand

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Demand Model
Demand Sources
Backlights
LCD TVs Notebooks Monitors Small/Medium Displays

Camera Flashes Illumination Products


Residential Commercial Industrial Outdoor

Automotive/Display/Others

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Small/Medium Display Demand


Panel Shipments LED Shipments Shipment Growth LED Growth 30000 35%

25000

30%

25% Panels (m)/LED (m) 20000 Growth 20% 15000 15% 10000 10% 5000

5%

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0%

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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Large Area Displays


Notebook CRT 1200 LCD (LED) Other Monitors LCD (CCFL) PDP LED 80,000 1000 70,000 800 Panels (m) 60,000 50,000 600 40,000 400 30,000 20,000 200 10,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 LEDs (m) 90,000

Source: YMR/IMS
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LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED Growth


L/A LED Displays L/A LED Display Growth LED Growth 1200 70%

1000

60%

50% 800 Panels (m) Growth 40% 600 30% 400 20% 200

10%

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0%

Source: YMR/IMS
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18

Converting from Traditional to SSL


Output (lm) Power (W) Electrical Efficiency Thermal Efficiency Optical Efficiency LED Degradation Luminaire Efficiency Cost per LED 2010 80 1.0 90% 90% 90% 6% 69% $1.50 2011 88 1.0 91% 91% 91% 6% 71% $1.35 2012 97 1.0 92% 92% 92% 6% 73% $1.22 2013 106 1.0 93% 93% 93% 6% 76% $1.09 2014 117 1.0 94% 94% 94% 6% 78% $0.98 2015 129 1.0 95% 95% 95% 6% 81% $0.89

$250.00 2010 Price Differential $200.00 $150.00 $100.00 $50.00 $Incandescent CFL Fluorescent HID 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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Lighting Shipments(m) by Application


Outdoor Outdoor

Luminaires
700 600 500 400 300

Industrial Commercial Residential

Lamps
80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000

Industrial Commercial Residential

200 20000 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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Lighting Shipment Share by Technology


Luminaires
Incandescent Fluorescent
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lamps
CFL High Intensity
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Incandescent Fluorescent

CFL High Intensity

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

21

Conversion from Traditional to SSL


Luminaires (m)
450 400 350 300
2500

Lamps (m)
4000

Residential Industrial

Commercial Outdoor

Residential Industrial

Commercial Outdoor

3500

3000

250
2000

200
1500

150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


1000

500

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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LED Shipments (m) and Share


Shipments (m)
80000

Share
Residential Industrial
100%

Residential Industrial

Commercial Outdoors

Commercial Outdoors

70000

90%

60000

80%

70% 50000 60% 40000

50%

30000

40%

30% 20000 20% 10000 10%

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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LED/Traditional Lamp Annual Shipments


90000 80000 25% 70000 60000 50000 15% 40000 30000 20000 5% 10000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 10% 20% Trad. Lamps SSL Share SSL Lamps 30%

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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LED Demand Automotive/Signals/Other


Other Signals/Automotive Growth 30000 30% 25% 25000 20% 15% 10% 15000 5% 0% 10000 -5% -10% 5000 -15% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -20%

20000

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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LED Supply/Demand

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LED Demand and Growth


250,000

Other Lighting Small/Medium Backlights Large Area LCD Backlight Growth 60%

200,000

50%

LED Demand (m)

40% 150,000 30% 100,000 20% 50,000 Growth

10%

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0%

Source: YMR/IMS
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

27

LED Supply/Demand
Binned Die (m) Supply Binned Die (m) Demand @105% Die Glut (m) @105% of demand 200,000 150,000 Binned Die (M) 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 -150,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels


Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

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Reactor Demand Forecast


Base 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base)

2500

2000

Reactors

1500

1447

1457

1482

1000 774 500 299 128 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 691

Source: YMR
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Forecast Deviations

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CNT Based Backlight Replacement


Replacement Characteristics Catalyst -- metallic nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix Thin .5 mm glass <1 mm spacers Eliminates color filter Provides local dimming Redundant Emitters Progressive scan capability No gate requirement Cost issues using HFCVD equipment, potential for printing High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV) High Luminance Forecast
Penetration TVs CNT LEDs (m) 5% 195 10 4875 10% 225 23 10125 15% 250 38 15188

Source: YMR/Motorola
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

31

AMOLED TVs
Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8th Gen Fab dedicated to OLED TVs
Timeframe 2012-2013 installation 18 40 panels/substrate Target Capacity
Year 1 -- 30k substrates/month Year 2 -- 60k substrates/month Year 3 -- 90k substrates/month

LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow

Forecast (40 panels/year)


OLED Fab 1 Fab 2 Fab 3 Total (000) LEDs (m) 1593 797 9888 4449 2013 1593 2014 8295 1593 2015 13704 8295 8295 30293 12269

Source: YMR
Copyright 2010 YMR, All Worldwide Rights Reserved Confidential

32

OLED Lighting
Current Status
>15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including Philips Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent GE Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer Polymer Based Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab Moser Baer -- Small Molecule Phosphorescent Samsung -- Small Molecule Phosphorescent, 2nd Gen Fab LG -- Small Molecule Phosphorescent ModisTech Polymer, R-T-R NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent

Target Size Substrate


2nd Gen 2010 4th Gen 2012

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33

OLED Lighting
Primary Market
Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting. Future 3 to 5 years away Fluorescent Luminaire Replacements Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles Compete with LEDs

Source: Osram Opto

Source: Lumiotec

Source: Acuity Brands Source: Lumiotec

Source: General Electric

Source: Philips

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34

OLED Lighting
Assumptions
Production Capacity
250x250 mm Substrates (000) Utilization Yields Production (m) 2013 16 360 70% 50% 2 730x920 2014 16 720 80% 75% 7 2015 16 1080 85% 85% 12

Performance
10" 12" 14" sq. m 0.063 0.093 0.126 cd/m2 3000 4000 5000 lumens 589 1167 1986 Lm/W 100 110 120 W 5.9 10.6 16.6 $/klm 255 171 126

LED/OLED Replacement LEDs


per Luminaire Luminaires (m) Lamps (m) Total (m) Total LEDs (m) OLED Share (m) Total LEDs (m) OLED Fabs

2013 26 9 126 135 3522 7 176 4

2014 23 9 327 336 7730 34 773 5

2015 20 11 666 677 13535 102 2030 9

Source: YMR
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Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs


Plan Difference Deviation % Change

1,500

-50%

1,000 -100% Reactors 500 -150% 0 Change -200% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-500

Source: YMR
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Questions barry@oled-a.org
YMR Produces: Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report Available from IMS Research Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption LED Material Report (under construction) OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction)

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