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Survey in CD 47
A telephone survey conducted in CD 47 between August 16 and 19, 2012, with 400 likely November voters shows Democratic State Senator Alan Lowenthal with a 20 point lead over his GOP opponent, Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong. Lowenthal leads DeLong by 51% to 31% in an initial head to head vote question in which voters were told only the candidates’ names and actual ballot titles. Moreover, Obama leads Romney in this district by 21 points (56% to 35%). Both Obama and Lowenthal hold leads that far outstrip the partisan edge that Democrats hold in CD 47 (about 13 points). This is due to two crucial advantages: First, Democrats are much more loyal than Republicans to their candidate. Lowenthal leads by 60 points among Democrats, while DeLong leads by only 38 points among GOP voters. Second, Decline to State (Independent) voters much prefer Lowenthal, giving him a 20 point lead. Lowenthal also leads strongly both in Orange County (about 40% of the district) and in Los Angeles County (where Lowenthal even takes 26% of the GOP voters). Most importantly, Lowenthal is crushing DeLong in his home base of Long Beach with a 31 point lead.
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Results from a name ID question underscore the distaste for the GOP “brand” in CD 47. The ratings for Republicans in Congress are 37% favorable and 55% unfavorable. For Democrats in Congress, the ratings are the exact inverse: 55% favorable and 37% unfavorable. DeLong’s structural disadvantage is underscored when we look at the difference in favorability ratings between the two candidates. Lowenthal benefits from a big edge, with a net positive (favorable minus unfavorable) of +17 points, compared to only +3 for DeLong, including higher negatives for DeLong than Lowenthal. Further, after positive and negative arguments about each candidate, Lowenthal’s lead only continues to increase. Large margins among key base and swing voters, along with significant support even from Republican voters, make Lowenthal the clear leader in this Democratic seat.