TO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: CA-47 DCCC IVR Results DATE: July

23, 2012 Alan Lowenthal is in an excellent position to win the congressional election in the 47th district of California. State Senator Lowenthal has a double-digit lead over Gary DeLong, even as both candidates have similar name recognition. Another encouraging sign for Lowenthal is that he is much more wellliked than his Republican opponent. In the horserace, Lowenthal leads by 11 points (47% to 36%) and is impressively close to the 50% threshold for a non-incumbent at this early stage. Lowenthal’s support is stronger than DeLong’s as 38% of voters say they will “definitely vote” for Lowenthal, while only 24% say the same about DeLong—a 14-point difference.

Lowenthal Leads DeLong By Double Digits
50% 40% 30% 20% 17% 47%

+11
36%

38% The newly-drawn 47th congressional district, which Strong 24% Strong includes Long Beach, is a district that naturally tilts 10% toward Democratic candidates. Party registration 0% favors Democrats by 11 percentage points (42% Lowenthal DeLong Undecided Democrats, 31% Republicans). Furthermore, in 2008, then-Senator Obama won 60% of the two-party vote. (When voters in this survey were asked about the 2008 election, Obama led McCain by 19 points—very similar to the actual result.)

Thus, Republican nominee DeLong would have to be much more well-liked than Lowenthal to have a path to victory. This is not the case at all, however, as Lowenthal actually has better favorability ratings than DeLong. Among the 43% of district voters who can rate Lowenthal, 31% view him favorably and just 12% hold an unfavorable view—for a favorability ratio of nearly 3:1. DeLong’s name is similarly recognized in the district, with 41% of the electorate able to rate the Republican. However, in contrast to Lowenthal’s favorable image, CA-47 voters are split in their opinions of DeLong: 21% view him favorably, and 17% unfavorably. In sum, Alan Lowenthal is beating Gary DeLong at present, and is well-positioned to maintain or extend this lead through the Fall campaign season.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 259 likely 2012 voters conducted July 18, 2012 in California’s new 47 Congressional district. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey.
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