National Security

Geopolitics Through the Lens of

Edition: 1st, 2012 Authors: Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid Shahzad Masood Roomi Farzana Shah Title Design : Waqar Ahmed Siddiqui Designing and Compilation : Shahzad Masood Roomi PDF version for mass distribution All Rights are reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without the prior written premission from Brsstacks.

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1 4GW, Indian Cold Start & Future Pak-India Conflict
Shahzad Masood Roomi

Pakistan and India are in constant state of war against each other since the last 63 years and vying at various levels due to incomplete and unjust division of subcontinent's North Western region of Jammu and Kashmir. This clash between two nuclear arch rivals is visible also at global level in political and diplomatic spheres and on four occasions, since 1947, world has witnessed the physical incarnation of this prolonged duel. Major wars erupted over Kashmir in 1948 and 1965. Both times it was the dispute over Indian military and political occupation of that Muslim majority State that turned into complete wars later on. In 1971, India supported insurgencies and political chaos in East Pakistan to make a physical incursion across the international borders to attack and then dismember Eastern wing of the country. In 1986, both countries came close to a war again. In 1999, both countries bitterly fought over hills of Kargil almost leading to a high intensity nuclear war. In 2002, another major standoff involving over a million armed troops was witnessed by the world, almost to the brink of a regional holocaust. In 2008, after the Mumbai attacks, both countries again came dangerously close to another war. Countless border clashes over the Line of Control in Kashmir and across the working boundary took place and now have become a routine. Anyone of these can lead to a full scale war between two nuclear armed countries. Though there is a military ceasefire right now but this constant state of confrontation is pulsating, on all other axes –political, economic and diplomatic –and has always been ruthless, sinister and noxious. For Pakistan, it is a matter of survival with its sovereignty preserved. For India, it's part of her long term hegemonic designs in the region. The fact of the matter is that both countries cannot co-exist, despite all the public relations façade thrown by politicians, diplomats and media unless all the outstanding issues get resolved in a just manner. All others who do not accept this harsh truth are devoid of historical and military reality. 1998 holds special significance in national defense as it was during this year that Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state and got ultimate deterrence denying its old adversary any political or military contrive like one Pakistan faced in 1971, which culminated in secession of East Pakistan. Indians were forced to change their operational strategy after Pakistan became a nuclear weapon state. Despite adopting changes at strategic level the long term objectives and the national security policy of India remained the same vis-à-vis Pakistan.

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After getting humiliated by a surprise military maneuver of Pakistan army, in 1999, during Kargil conflict, India launched an obscenely ominous diplomatic and media offensive using 'cross border terrorism in Indian Kashmir' as an excuse to get Pakistan declared a terrorist state. Before Pakistan could have developed any adequate diplomatic response to this Indian political onslaught, 9/11 occurred, that was a game changer. Although many other strategic, political and economic dynamics were also involved, one of the issues of convergence of mutual interests was the fear monster of “Islamic Terrorism” that made India and the US strategic partners in the 21st century. India took full advantage of post 9/11 developments to up the ante further in its drive against Pakistan and its nuclear program. The whole geo-political and geo-strategic situation dramatically turned against Pakistan. Blame also rest with Islamabad for not responding quickly and effectively to the changed paradigms. Indians found their new bastion in Afghanistan, behind Pakistan's back, from where they launched multiple rear area furtive operations in Pakistan. Not only that this low intensity war and support to insurgencies caused society and system failures in Pakistan, it also created a global environment to justify declaring Pakistan a failed State, not worthy of having nuclear weapons. Orchestrating terrorism against Pakistan from Afghanistan is the most audacious move by the Indians. Exploiting the deviant, violent and sinister ideology of Takfir, Indians as well as their American and Israelis allies, infiltrated Pakistani, Indian, Afghan, Uzbek and Arab militants within Pakistani tribal areas to launch the most ruthless and bloody terrorist campaigns in recent history. This menace has almost torn apart the social fabric of the society. An insurgency that started in FATA was made to spread all over the country swiftly and systematically. Suicide bombings, ambushes, target killings and bomb blasts are routine in all major urban centers across the nation. Thousands of Pakistani civilian and security forces personnel have lost their lives in this ruthless and relentless wave of terrorism unleashed by TTP, the biggest Indian asset in Pakistan. Pakistan armed forces are fighting against this menace since last 5 years. War is still on but for the first time Pakistan army is managing to get the upper hand in this conflict after a long and bloody slog. But Pakistan army, ISI and the nation have paid a heavy price for these gains after taking severe hits by an ostensibly hidden but ruthless and cunning enemy. After 1971, when Indians had successfully orchestrated the ruthless Mukti Bahini terrorist gangs in East Pakistan, RAW again managed to pull off another of their bloody stunts by creating and launching the TTP through US occupied Afghanistan. Pakistan has paid a high price of US invasion and occupation of Afghanistan since 2001. Another incredible aspect of this Indian launched 4th generation war against Pakistan is its timing. Terrorism and insurgencies started in Pakistan in 2004-05 and it was no coincidence that India introduced its future military doctrine to attack and “Punish” Pakistan, for its “support to terrorism in India”, during the same year.

This military doctrine is the second part of the Grand Indian policy, which itself is an articulation of a two prong strategy, against Pakistan; 1. To denuclearize Pakistan after getting it declared a failed and a terrorist state. For this objective Indians perpetuated an extremely complex and excruciatingly difficult to fight 4th generation war against Pakistan. Purpose of this war is to soften and then implode Pakistan internally by drawing Pakistani armed forces into high intensity conflicts within its own borders, in an asymmetrical and ruthless unconventional war against local and foreign insurgents. This in turn would create mass panic, confusion, economic collapse and national disintegration leading up to a collusive system and governance failure. This would also draw and engage Pakistani forces on the western theatre, drawing them away from Eastern front against India, thus thinning Pakistani defenses. The supporting diplomatic offensives and media ops are to be launched simultaneously to build a global case to denuclearize Pakistan. 2. The Second prong of Indian strategy envisions launching pre-emptive and surprise physical assaults on Pakistan on multiple fronts under the pretext of attacking militant hideouts sited on Pakistani soil. Indian military has engineered a new military doctrine to execute this surprise invasion known as the “Cold Start”. What is happening in Pakistan today is the execution of the first phase of Indian grand strategy against Pakistan. Indian mission became possible only due to US presence in Afghanistan and due to a failed foreign policy adopted by Islamabad after 9/11. Indians had already launched this war during the Musharraf era but the real ferocity and ruthlessness was unleashed after CIA installed “democracy” was put in place in Pakistan in Early 2008. The entire pressure and responsibility to respond and to neutralize this immediate severe threat fell on Pakistani armed forces and intelligence setup which are increasingly encumbered in a war where real enemy (India) is hidden in its sanctuaries in Afghanistan behind the religious façade of TTP. This Indian proxy terrorist group is an extension of Indian army amid Pakistani society, just as Tamil tigers were in Sri Lanka. Pakistan is facing following threats in this asymmetric 4th generation warfare; ♦ Insurgencies in North and North Western provinces. These are supported by Indian RAW from Afghanistan. TTP in FATA and BLA in Baluchistan are creating mayhem and chaos by unleashing terrorism and anarchy. Both insurgencies are completely heterogeneous in tactics and pose diverse challenges for the security forces. ♦ An extreme sense of insecurity is prevailing in masses due to target killings, suicide bombings, sectarian violence and ethno-linguistic sadism in all major cities. Increasing frequency of these incidents depicts a very bleak picture of national security profile. Judicial system has totally collapsed to respond to these threats. ♦ This frenzied situation presented foreign secret services like CIA, MI6 and RAW and private mercenaries like Blackwater (Xe Worldwide) with an opportunity to establish their independent footprints in Pakistan to carry out kidnappings, assassinations and sabotage operations as well as eavesdropping and spying. The entire Drone operations and subsequent assassinations are being conducted by CIA and their mercenary contractors with impunity.

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♦ Economic intimidation of Pakistan and to destroy Pakistan's food supply chain, through water aggression is relatively new but most ruthless move in this hushed war by India. Violating Indus Water Treaty, India built multiple dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir region. Due to these illegal dams, India can block Pakistani waters or release excessive waters into Pakistani rivers to cause destruction through artificially created floods. ♦ Media ops and propaganda warfare have been launched using disinformation, twisted analysis and planted intelligence reports about Pakistan and its possible extinction in the near future. Purpose of this propaganda war is to create a sense of hopelessness in Pakistani masses especially in Pakistani youth, to create a divide between the citizens and the armed forces and to dilute the ideology of Pakistan. Indian movies, TV plays and Hindu culture and language is being aggressively promoted through injection of billions of rupees into Pakistani media, press and infotainment market. ♦ Corrupt and incompetent government in Islamabad accelerated economic meltdown of Pakistan through staggering corruption. National financial policies and institutes have been handed over to IMF and World Bank and by taking loans on compromisingly unforgiving conditions. Pakistan lost its control over vital economic policies after entering into IMF program. To add insult to injury, the government is going to start talks with IMF for new loan after floods. This new loan obviously will not come without strings attached. ♦ On diplomatic plain, India is desperate to isolate Pakistan on regional and global level. While US military wants to keep Pakistani armed forces as allies to support their war in Afghanistan, Indians are in

a hurry and want an irate collision between Pakistan and US/NATO. Indian strategy is to fight Pakistan to the last American and Indians are extremely offended when US is forced to supply weapons or money to Pakistan in its desperate bid to keep a very angry and disturbed Pakistan on its side. The latest Block 52 F-16 sale to Pakistan has ruffled many feathers in Delhi. After 9/11, Indians were desperate to convince Americans that the real threat is from Pakistan and not Afghanistan and even offered bases on Indian soil to US to attack Pakistan. That cunning Indian policy of using Americans to fight their war remains alive and active to this day. Indian RAW perpetrated attacks on US consulates using TTP, in Peshawar, to put blame on Pakistan based “Islamic terrorists”. ♦ Apart from politically motivated religious, secular and sectarian terrorism, existing fault lines in the country's disintegrating political system, like ethno-linguistic politics, are serving as catalyzing agents for the enemy cause. Ethnicity and linguistic divide were re-stamped on Pakistani society after 2008 elections which gave ANP and MQM a new lease of political life. ANP has officially created ethnic rift in NWFP by controversially renaming the province, thus isolating and provoking the Hazara community. BLA activists are doing ethnic cleansing of non-Baluch settlers in Baluchistan, forcing an exodus from the province of these settlers. ANP, MQM and BLA are stoking multiple ethnic fires in at least 3 provinces of the country. These insurgencies and the various axes of 4GW have been launched to soften up Pakistan by multiple hostile powers. While the Americans and the Israelis, for now, are only seriously interested in denuclearizing Pakistan to remove all immediate threats of an “Islamic Bomb” or other Muslim countries taking the technology from Islamabad, Indians want to go further to annihilate Pakistan as well in their dream of creating “Greater India” or “Akhand Bharat”. But Indians cannot do it alone nor can it annihilate a nuclear armed Pakistan. On their part, US and Israel cannot afford to let Pakistan keep its weapons, hence the convergence of all these powers critical interests against Pakistan's strategic weapons program. Most of the terrorism in Pakistan is remotely controlled by these hostile entities from Afghanistan. Simultaneously, the media of these nations' remains aggressive in creating this hype that Pakistan's strategic nuclear weapons are not safe and are about to fall into the hands of the terrorists, hence must be “secured” by international community. Security forces have completed military phase of counter insurgency operations in Swat but remain bogged in Western sectors in tribal areas despite making major gains. The sanctuaries of the terrorists remain alive in Afghanistan with a constant flow of men, weapons and explosives into Pakistan. Under pressure from Pakistan army, militants continue to melt back into Afghan wilderness under RAW/CIA's protection, out of the range of Pakistani firepower. This is exactly why India launched these insurgencies in the first place; to draw and bog Pakistan army in restive regions in the West, far from the Eastern borders where India is busy in massive military buildup under new Cold Start doctrine. The PPP and their allies remain naively oblivious to these grave risks to national security. Never before, national politics haunted Pakistan's security in this manner.

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The Indian plan is to catch Pakistan off guard by launching multiple incursions on Eastern border at a time when Pakistan would be too weak to defend its frontiers against any physical assault due to internal conflicts and insurgencies, chaos, mismanagement and total collapse of governance. 4th generation warfare and its various shreds have been discussed extensively in previous issues of Brasstacks monthly security review. This report examines the second phase of Grand Indian strategy i.e. the Cold Start (CS) doctrine. First phase of this war is already in advanced stages through 4GW. Here, we would examine how the future Pak-India direct high intensity conflict would look like under the CS doctrine.

Rationale & Birth of Cold Start
In early 1980's Indian army adopted “Sundarji Doctrine” that remained principle military doctrine for India against Pakistan in the following two decades. It was devised by former Indian army chief, General Krishnaswamy Sundarji. This doctrine divided Indian army units into two groups of army corps each with its own dedicated role. Holding Corps: This group of corps is meant to be deployed closer to border with a primary task of 'hold the line'. In other words, holding the advancement of any invading army was the primary role of these corps. Strike Corps: Primary task of strike corps is to attack Pakistan. India currently has 3 strike corps on the border to launch military offensive against Pakistan simultaneously in 3 different sectors. To enhance the efficacy of the strike corps, doctrine emphasized heavily on incorporating speed, technology and firepower. Right now, Indian army order of battle is constituted by 7 holding and 3 strike corps, all deployed along Pakistan-India border. India tested this doctrine in subcontinent's biggest combined armour, mechanized, artillery and air power war game undertaken in February-March 1986 during 'Operation Brasstacks'. These war games took place next to Pakistani border and triggered a similar buildup by Pakistan army on the other side of the border. Another war was looming around in the subcontinent. Tension was released through diplomatic channels and an almost inevitable conflict was circumvented. Sundarji Doctrine was conceived at a time when Pakistan was a non-nuclear state and Pakistan army was relying on conventional warfare. After becoming a nuclear weapon state in 1998, Pakistan was in a position to challenge this Indian military doctrine by denying Indian strike corps to strike inside Pakistan due to its ultimate deterrence in the form of nuclear arsenal. The fact was exhibited during Operation Parakram (2001-02) when Pakistani nuclear weapons and strategic ambiguity about their usage thwarted Indian designs.

Serious flaws of Sundarji doctrine were exposed during this Indian military buildup in 2001-2002, which was the largest military mobilization against Pakistan since 1971; 1. Slow mobilization of large armour and mechanized divisions of Indian army. It took 3 weeks for Indian armour divisions to converge on advance positions along Pakistan-India border. 2. Pakistani military intelligence detected massive Indian military mobilization early and this invaluable piece of intelligence allowed Pakistan army to exercise its own deployment plans to deter Indian advances along the Eastern border. Pakistan army quickly established a dual line of defense around Lahore within couple of weeks after receiving intelligence about Indian military mobilization on the other side of the border. Indian strike corps had lost element of strategic surprise by then. It was perhaps the biggest surprise for Indians during ten month long stand-off. This readiness and operational preparedness of Pakistan army prevented any Indian adventure.

Indian SAM system during operation Parakaram 2002

3. Diplomatic failure due to US/NATO's dependence on Pakistan for its WoT (War on Terror) in Afghanistan. US was desperate to diffuse the situation as it could have destroyed the US war in Afghanistan in its early stages if Pakistan had denied its cooperation with US in Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan back in 2002. 4. Indian political leadership failed to determine any strategic objective of this endeavor. It was a total military drill and political leadership in New Delhi was not onboard. Although some hardliners in Delhi termed Operation Parakram as a success in Indian coercive diplomacy but it was the international intervention that defused the tension. Pakistan army or the government never bowed before Indian aggressive stance during the whole episode. Situation was diffused without any strategic or even tactical gains by the Indians despite such massive deployment for so long.

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Indian military top brass faced utter embarrassment and severe criticism inside India by various Indian political and military commentators and analysts on launching an ill-envisioned military plan. Former Indian army chief, Shankar Roay Chudhary termed it as a “pointless gesture” while journalist Praveen Swami called the operation Parakram as “arguably the most ill-conceived maneuver in Indian military history”. Numerical disparity in armed forces diminished as Pakistan maintained its traditional strategic ambiguity about deployment of its nuclear arsenal. Failure of Operation Parakram brought Sundarji doctrine to an end as well and Indian army desperately started to look for a more robust and practical conventional military doctrine, in a nuclear overhang, to fight a high intensity war with Pakistan. The shift in strategic thinking of Indian leadership after Pakistan becoming a nuclear state also necessitated a new military doctrine that could deliver under complete NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) overhang. India realized fully the inability of its forces to dismember Pakistan by a physical attack. India readjusted her strategy to denuclearize Pakistan first by getting it declared a “terrorist and failed state” in comity of nations. To meet this prerequisite of Indian policy, India launched and supported multiple insurgencies and terrorism in Pakistan. For the final phase, new Indian military doctrine was to be drafted as such, which Indian army could use under the pretext of attacking “terrorist training camps” inside Pakistan and this is exactly what Cold Start is all about. Coupled with coldblooded and ruthless ongoing 4th generation war initiated against Pakistan, Cold Start doctrine poses a considerable threat to Pakistan's national security in mid to long run. Any false flag terror attack in India would be used as an excuse to execute Cold Start. It would be a surprise and “pre-emptive' attack without any warning or declaration of war to decapitate Pakistan's military and political leadership.

Cold Start: Objectives, Components and Tactics
Adoption of Cold Start doctrine, in 2004, dictated major structural changes in Indian military. Basic idea of Cold Start revolves around a short and intense war, with focus on agility, surprise and swift maneuvering of, newly introduced, division sized Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) to inflict maximum damage to Pakistani military infrastructure and forces in shortest possible time before world community could intervene. A whole new army command by the name of 'South Western Command' was formed in 2005 under Cold Start. This command has had a pivot corps and a strike corps assigned to it (X Pivot Corps, I Corps) with area of responsibility including Punjab and Rajasthan. Previously these areas were covered by Western command which now covers region between Pathankot and Jammu. Headquarter is located at Jaipur and main purpose was to bolster strike capabilities of Indian army in the Southern sectors. This command was established to work in conjunction with Udhampur-based Northern Command and Chandimandir-based Western Command.

Indian T-90 Tank

India currently has 3 strike corps (I Corps, II Corps and XXI Corps). These would be transformed into 8 IBGs under Cold Start doctrine giving Indian army far more flexibility to launch multiple offensives at once on possible 8 different fronts. Each IBG would consist of mechanized infantry, artillery and armour units. Each battle group would have close air support by Indian air force to provide massive firepower against reinforced defensive deployments of Pakistani army. Apart from this, Indian army gunships will provide cover to advancing IBGs. To achieve this capability, Indian air force is inducting multiple weapon systems in its inven tory. To enhance its operational effectiveness, Indian military has introduced a new joint ops paradigm in all its arms; Army, Air Force and Navy. Every IBG would have its own mission objectives in a theatre of war and would continue its operations until its military objectives were achieved. This will give battle group commanders the autonomy to take and implement decentralized decisions on their own without waiting for a word from the top brass sitting deep inside India far from battle fields. Valuable time shall be saved during fast changing dynamics of a particular battle ground. In order to prevent Pakistan from deploying its nuclear weapons in retaliation, IBGs would not engage civilian population in large urban centers. This would keep a moral pressure on Pakistan to keep fighting a conventional war despite having non-conventional capability. At least this is what Indians are hoping! Basic task of IBGs, with Russian T-90 and T72M1 tanks at their core, would be to make shallow territorial gains by invading 50-80 km deep inside Pakistan, mainly by out flanking heavily guarded cities like Lahore and Sialkot. During the WWII, French command and control centers were compromised by German blitzkrieg in 1940 when German Panzer tank units penetrated swiftly deep into French territory along multiple lines of advances, bypassing defenses and strong points. Despite presence of large number of French troops in the area, higher military leadership was paralyzed by this cunning German military maneuver. Consequently, France fell to Germans in a matter of weeks. German generals like Rommel and Guderian made their name in the history due to these attacks with armoured divisions across the Europe. Indian army used similar tactics after facing stiff resistance from Pakistan army in some sectors during 1971 Pak-India war in East

Indian T-72M1 Tanks will form the core of IBGs

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Pakistan. Idea of Cold Start revolves around similar tactics. This maneuver warfare of Indian military would not only enable it to capture large areas of land but would put Pakistan's military command and control infrastructure in similar catastrophic situation which French faced, during WWII, by German blitzkrieg operations. This incursion will have strong air support by IAF (Indian Air Force). Apart from assisting IBGs, IAF would carry out attacks on Pakistan army ground installations, command and control infrastructure and formation on ground to further accelerate the advances of IBGs. Indian air force is inducting all the modern war planes, weapons, missiles, sensors and communications suits. IAF has a clear advantage over its Pakistani counterpart and it is pursuing an aggressive plan to induct high tech weapon systems to have a decisive qualitative and numerical edge over PAF.

Another possibility is second wave of ground assaults by some of the India's holding corps. These have already been declared as “Pivot corps” in Cold Start doctrine with reinforcement in form of additional armour and artillery units to engage into offensive operations at least in some sectors if not in all. According to Indian military planners, these simultaneous joint forces attacks would deliver a fatal blow to military cohesion of Pakistan army and under immense pressure it would make some gross tactical mistakes offering further advantage to invading Indian IBGs. For such a fast military maneuver it was essential to address some key shortcomings in Indian military; 1. Slowness of armour unit and mechanized infantry. 2. Failure in concealing the mobilization of forces for a rapidly aggressive and surprise strike across the border. 3. Lack of situational awareness, information and intelligence sharing capabilities using secure means.

To overcome these challenges, Indian military is undertaking major structural and operational changes by moving its armour divisions and mechanized infantry units closer to border on permanent basis. Major purpose of this shift of divisions closer to border is to gain element of surprise and to cut short deployment time of these divisions. This would allow IBG’s to launch across-the-line operations whenever orders are received while Pivot corps would start their deployment afterwards to deter any possible retaliation from Pakistan. On the other hand, large number of IBGs and diverse nature of their objectives in each theatre would make the job of Pakistan's military intelligence a lot more cumbersome as ultimate objective of each IBG, crossing into Pakistan, would be less obvious. Apart from this, Indian military is strengthening its arms (army, air force, navy) in an ambitious modernization drive. Current and future military procurement plans of Indian forces must be suffice to explain the Indian preparation for a short and intense war. Two most noticeable aspects of these procurement plans is how India is arming its forces with offensive military hardware and induction of latest C4I2 (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and Information) systems for modernization of Indian command and control infrastructure. India surged its military budget by a staggering 21% in 2009 alone. India is eyeing to spend $100 Billion till 2022 on weapon procurement alone. Current procurement plan includes following systems for all three arms of Indian military. Army ♦ 145 M-777 Light Weight Towed Howitzer artillery guns ♦ 197 new helicopters ♦ Procurement of T-90 Russian main battle tanks. Indian army eying 1000 such tanks till 2020. ♦ Modification of road networks in border areas in Western and Eastern regions bordering Pakistan and China.

M-777Light Weight Towed Howitzer artillery gun

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Air Force ♦ Multi billion dollars Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program to induct 126 state of the art 4th generation fighter jets. Vendors from US, Russia, Sweden, Britain and France are competing for the project. ♦ Procurement of Phalcon AWACS platform from Israel.


Israeli made Phalcon AWACS system for Indian Air Force

♦ 5th generation stealth fighter bomber (T-50) joint venture with Russia. ♦ Light Combat Aircraft (LCA); Extensive foreign help from US, France and Israel. ♦ US built C-130J and C-17 transport planes to enhance mobility. ♦ Joint Venture with Israel for Air Defense system Navy ♦ Ambitious nuclear submarine project to build 15 SSBNs till 2020. First one is already inducted. ♦ Acquisition of Russian aircraft carrier and retrofitted with latest systems. This will able to house 30 fixed wing aircraft. This will boost Indian Navy’s aerial assault capability to considerable level.

Russian Aircraft carrier would join Indian Navy after going through retrofit process.

♦ Procurement of 6 Scorpene class conventional submarines from France. ♦ A Follow up order of 7 subs with ability to launch BrahMos cruise missile. ♦ Leasing of Ackula class nuclear submarines from Russia. ♦ Procurement of three Russian Krivak IV class frigates ♦ Purchase of Mig-29K fighters for Indian navy.

Indian Navy would get MIG-29Ks as well

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♦ P-8I Poseidon planes from US for naval reconnaissance and long range maritime patrol. Apart from all these formidable platforms and systems, US offers of state of the art F-18 E/F fighter jets, Apache gunship helicopters, H-2D Hawkeye AWACS systems are also on the table for India to take. Many agreements for upgrading existing systems and joint ventures with other countries in areas like training, exercises and military hardware manufacturing are underway. Synergized joint ops by all the forces demand a reliable and secure means of communication and information sharing in real time. Indian military is enhancing its EW(Electronic Warfare),ECM(Electronic Counter Measures),ECCM(Electronic Counter Counter Measures) capabilities. Israel and US are helping India build these capabilities. Israeli Green Pine radars and Phalcon AWACS along with US P-8I Poseidon planes would take Indian C4I2 (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and Information) capabilities to a new level. The successful employment in war games of networked sensor systems (unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs, reconnaissance satellites, and advanced radar) and sophisticated communications suites by combat units and their headquarters is evidence of potential network-centric warfare capability. Clearly, Indians are working to overcome short- comings in their forces to implement Cold Start. Changed strategic and political situation has enabled India to procure all kinds of state of the art combat systems from world over but procuring these weapon systems is not the only area, critical for successful execution of Cold Start, where Indians are working aggressively.


Cold Start: Refining and Testing
There are 3 critical areas of Cold Start to precisely estimate the level of operational preparedness Indian army has achieved to execute it; 1. The demonstration of the operational capabilities required to execute the Cold Start doctrine. 2. The implementation of the requisite organizational changes. 3. The development of the resources and infrastructure required to support the envisioned military operations. As far as first element of operational preparedness is concerned it is evident that the Indian army is moving towards achieving its required level of operational capabilities in army and air force to undertake joint operations envisaged in Cold Start. Military exercises conducted by Indian forces, to test Cold Start, prove that Indian army is enhancing its capabilities in three main areas. It is critical to comprehend and preempt Indian plans. 1. Integrating and synchronizing the operations of Indian army and Indian air force. Joint operations are a key to implementing the doctrine because IBGs would rely heavily on close air support and firepower provided by IAF.

2. Offensive action by pivot corps, short mobilization offensives, and independent operations by multiple units. 3. Enhancing network-centric warfare capability of geographically dispersed forces via advanced communications tools. It is imperative not only for amplifying the speed of decision making and improving the synchronization among dispersed forces but also for enhanced situational awareness and intelligence sharing. India has conducted 5 major military war games since 2004, just to test and refine its Cold Start strategy. A brief look at these exercises and their objectives would suffice to weigh the preparations of Indian army. Divya Astra(Divine Weapon, 2004): This war game was conducted in March 2004 at Mahajan Firing Range in Rajasthan, 70 kilometers from the international border. The purpose of this exercise was to test the ability of the Indian Army's various combat arms to deliver integrated firepower in conjunction with the air force. This was a 90 minute tactical battle scenario which was designed to test the capability to penetrate fortified defenses by mechanized attack supported by artillery and ground support aircraft. Vajra Shakti (Thunder Power, 2005): Took place in May 2005 some 80 kilometers away from Pakistani borders on the plains of Jalandhar, Indian Punjab. It was a ten-day long exercise with 25,000 Indian troops participating. Troops belonged to Panther Infantry Division and the Flaming Arrow Armoured Brigade of the XI Corps (Vajra Corps), one of the army's pivot corps. This was first demonstration of previously defense-oriented holding corps after their conversion into Pivot corps with new responsibilities of limited offensive attack. Desert Strike(2005): These war games took place in November 2005 in Rajasthan's Thar desert and continued for fourteen days. Major objective of these war games was to enhance joint operation capabilities of Indian army armour divisions and air force strike squadrons. A principal aim was to examine the Indian military's ability to defeat an enemy by causing psychological collapse through the use of preemption, dislocation and disruption. After Operation Brasstacks this was the largest military games conducted by Indian army. The exercise was inspired by US Operation Desert Storm in 1991 in Iraq. Sanghe Shakti(Joint Power, 2006): This military drill conducted in May 2006 was corps level exercise to test Cold Start. It was bigger than all the previous exercises. More than 40,000 troops from 1st Armoured Division, 14th RAPID Division, and 22nd Infantry Division of the Ambala-based II Strike Corps participated. Exercises took place 100 kilometers away from Pakistani border in Indian Punjab. II Strike Corps is main strike corps of Indian army and constitutes 50% of Indian military firepower. This is the corps which would be tasked for a thrust into Pakistan through Cholistan area.

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Indian tanks during Desert Strike 2005 military exercise

Ashwamedh( April 2007): Cold Start doctrine was again tested for the fifth time in April 2007 in Rajasthan's Thar desert. Once again Indian strike corps (I Strike Corp) took part in the exercise with its 25,000 troops along with infantry fighting vehicles, main battle tanks, heavy artillery, and gunship helicopters. It was described as test of the country's new “pro-active war strategy.” The exercise was designed specifically to test how Indian strike units will enhance their combat power utilizing advanced sensor networked with weapons on ground in a multi prong attack. It is interesting to note that all these exercises were conducted in a complete NBC simulated environment. Night-fighting capabilities were intensively tested in Vajra Shakti, Sanghe Shakti and Ashwamedh exercises. Though visible shortcomings, in area of joint operations, were observed at various levels in Indian troops while going through various drills during these exercises but still these exercises prove beyond any doubt that Indian armed forces are preparing for a joint, integrated, short and intense war against Pakistan. Most worrying aspect of these Indian preparations, from Pakistani perspective, is the utilization of satellite imagery and UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) in these exercises. Currently, India is relying on Russian GPS system but India has plans to build a similar system as well. Although the limited war strategy has moved beyond theoretical phase in professional military circles but, based on the available evidence, it appears that Cold Start remains within the experimental stage of development. Widespread organizational changes, like converting strike corps into IBGs and moving armour divisions closer to borders, required for full implementation has not taken place yet and it will take a considerable time before Indian army can reach there. Indian military is enhancing its ground infrastructure as well to execute Cold Start. New road network and communications links are being established in border regions. This support infrastructure would be required not just to house the IBGs near border area but a logistical mean in time of conflict. IBGs would be stationed

alongwith existing units from the pivot corps in their area of operations. Most likely location of these new facilities would be located along a line stretching from Barmer-Jaisalmer-Bikaner-Suratgarh.

Cold Start: The Geo-strategic Angle
India's Cold Start would be highly vulnerable as long as Pakistan's nuclear strike capability is preserved. This capability is a threat not only for Indian Cold Start but for US interests and Israeli expansion as well. US and Indian interests' vis-à-vis Pakistan converged on denuclearization of Pakistan. As long as US is in the region and requires Pakistan's help, it wants a stable Pakistan but not with nuclear armament capability. US needs an obedient, co-operating and “delivering” Pakistan for which it is necessary to make it dependent on US/NATO for its very existence. To achieve this it is imperative to render Pakistan into a non-nuclear state through various international treaties and agreements. Indians are desperately waiting for this moment so that they can execute Cold Start with full fury. Second vortex of Indo-US strategic partnership is to strategize the plans to impede China's economic and military boom in which Pakistan can play a major role by providing a trade corridor to China through its ports. China can also use these ports for power projection by docking its naval ships in the area. This will enable China to keep an eye on all major trade routes in Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Indo-US nexus is anxiously wanting to dent Pakistan's strategic ties with China as well. RAW and CIA are also working jointly to harm Pak-China relations by creating religious unrest in Chinese Xinjiang province and targeting Chinese working in Pakistan. Indians want to execute Cold Start with a strategically isolated Pakistan with no military and economic aid from any regional power at least in the critical first few days. Strategically, Pak-China military partnership is a major hurdle in the execution of Indian Cold Start. Despite all the bravado of “two front war” against Pakistan and China by former Indian army chief, Gen. Deepak Kapoor, Indian military would find it extremely ambitious, even suicidal, to take on Pakistan and China simultaneously. American occupied Afghanistan has become a strategic black hole for Pakistan's national security. Post 9/11 policies adopted by previous regime in Islamabad are haunting Pakistan badly to this date and unfortunately it would remain so unless Pakistan revised its foreign policy especially towards US presence in Afghanistan. Today, all internal security challenges of Pakistan stem from Afghanistan and it would remain a direct threat for Pakistan as long as US/NATO forces remain in occupation of that land and Indians are given a free hand through their consulates to wage their 4GW against Pakistan.

Cold Start: The Geo-political Angle
Pakistan is a target of isolation campaign at regional level. Pakistan and China have always supported each other at global level on all critical issues like Kashmir and Taiwan. This was only during this PPP regime when Pakistani embassy in Beijing was without an ambassador to China for months. On the other hand Indians were fast establishing economic and military ties with China during the same time. India and China remained troubled neighbors for decades but Pakistani foreign office never succeeded to exploit this situation to its advantage. If it was not for Pakistan's military leadership, current government would have already lost China as a strategic friend.

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Pak-Iran ties were a source of strength for Pakistan in previous showdowns between Pakistan and India. Sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shia in Pakistan and Iran remains critical to damaging Pak-Iran relations. US also do not want any warm relations between Pakistan and Iran. All Indian and US assets including TTP and Jundullah are now aggressively busy in waging sectarian wars in Pakistan and Iran. All these arrangements actually are prequel of Cold Start episode. Apart from trying to isolate Pakistan in the region, Indians are pressing hard for securing a permanent seat in UN Security Council to get a decisive political edge over Pakistan and China. Most unfortunate aspect of this Indian ambition is that it has found Islamabad as an ally. This is an unimaginable scenario that the Pakistani government is supporting India for a permanent seat in UN Security Council. These decisions are going to compromise national security and political interests of the country. By getting a permanent seat in the UN, India would be in a position to veto every resolution forwarded by Pakistan on issues like Kashmir. Summarizing it all, Indian Cold Start would remain just an idea unless following geo-strategic and geo political factors change in Indian favor; 1. Pak – China military relations both in conventional and unconventional domains. China is reliable and the biggest conventional weapon supplier for Pakistan. 2. Pak – Iran military and strategic ties. Iran can supply Pakistan with critical energy resources in times of war. India, on the other hand, has no such neighbor. This is why Pak-Iran relations are such a critical imperative from Pakistan national security perspective. 3. US dependence on Pakistan for US/NATO supply lines. Status quo between Pakistan and India, on all issues, is the best suited position for US for its operations in Afghanistan. 4. Pakistan's close military ties with Gulf States and Indian dependence on these for her energy needs. India will have to rely on its strategic fuel reserves in a war with Pakistan. This is a big geographic drawback for India which Pakistan would exploit during war by blocking Indian fuel supplies from Gulf. 5. Inability of Indian forces to dismember / capture Pakistan in a conventional conflict. 6. Regional instability, which would haunt India more after a Pak-India conflict in future. Local insurgencies in India would get out of control completely creating a nightmarish security scenario for New Delhi.

Cold Start: Execution
Where would Cold Start be executed? This is the issue of critical interest for Pakistani war planners. Though nothing can be said with certainty at this stage, regional topography would play a decisive role in formation of Indian IBGs and their operations. Pakistan's Eastern border stretches from glacier of Siachen in North to quicksands of Rann of Kutch in South. This 2600km long border has every kind of territory; mountain ranges, plains, deserts and quicksand areas. Southern region mainly consists of Thar Desert and vast muddy plains of Rann of Kutch and this terrain is not conducive for armour or mechanized divisions but Thar Desert region is ideal for maneuver warfare. This is precisely why both the countries are preparing for a conflict in this area as well. Each country's army would desperately try to outflank the other. Due to its very limited depth

(average 300 miles), Pakistan is most vulnerable to a flanking attack, particularly in Thar and Cholistan areas. So, it would be prudent to assume that major thrust of Indian incursion would be in the North, mainly Punjab and Upper Sindh. Cutting off Karachi by destroying or capturing National Highway, by invading Ghotki and Sukkur districts, and breaking into interior Sindh remains a lucrative target for the Indians. Indian initial aim would be to launch an attack using its 3 to 5 IBGs. Most probable objective areas would be (1) Ravi-Chenab corridor and (2) Reti- Rahim yar Khan-Kashmor complex, also known as soft belly of Pakistan. Pakistan army would face a two-prong attack in Ravi-Chenab axis with one IBG rolling along Jammu-SailkotDaska axis and another one across Ravi (Narowal area) to link up with the first one. In second theatre, major thrust of Indian incursion will be faced by Bahawalpur based XXXI corps of Pakistan army. Indians might try to expand this theatre towards further North, by one or two IBGs, to engage Multan based strike corps (II Corps) in a surprise preemptive attack inside Pakistani border. Massive use of Indian air force would also be a part of this action as there is a high concentration of Indian forward air force bases across the border. IBG invasions in Ravi-Satluj corridor will face a stiff resistance as both Lahore and Kasur are very important cities. Pakistan army has massive concentration in this area. IBGs cannot engage themselves in long battles of attrition as it will kill the blitzkrieg characteristics of speed and surprise.

Hypothetical map of expected Indian IBGs invasion into Pakistan

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Massive diplomatic and media ops would be launched simultaneously to engage international community to prevent Pakistan from launching a nuclear attack on India. These media ops would be directed to paint Pakistan as a failed state in combating terrorism rather Pakistan would be showcased as a terrorist harboring state to build on the legitimacy of Indian incursion in Pakistan. Indian media has demonstrated its anti-Pakistan propaganda warfare capabilities during Kargil war and Mumbai crises. On the other hand, Pakistani media is yet to learn the first word about protecting national interests in this era of ruthless media warfare. Instead of giving message of hope and dignity while nation and armed forces are fighting a ruthless war, Pakistani media just created disappointment, despondency and a sheer sense of helplessness among masses that has weakened national cohesion already to very uncomfortable levels.

A Critical Look into Cold Start
Despite all its audacity and bravado by Indian military top brass, Cold Start has some critical flaws. Indian army is nowhere near executing it as per its inception; ♦ Biggest challenge for Cold Start is to gauge Pakistan's nuclear Red Line. Despite the rhetoric of fighting an intense and short war with Pakistan and China simultaneously under the nuclear overhang, it would be extremely dangerous and delicate undertaking of Indian military to execute Cold Start without triggering a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan, if Pakistan begins to lose large territory. ♦ In the absence of any strategic depth to repel Indian conventional incursion it is safe to assume that nuclear threshold of Pakistan is not very high. Facing existential threat in form of Cold Start, in midst of 4th generation war, Pakistan could reach its critical threshold much earlier than Indian anticipations. This would be cataclysmic for millions on both sides. There are no predefined and documented parameters available about nuclear escalation point of Pakistan and this is deliberate to create a strategic ambiguity. This situation puts a big question mark on Cold Start realization. ♦ In 2007, during an interview, an officer of the Strategic Planning Division (SPD) of Pakistan mentioned that Pakistan would retain this strategic ambiguity and element of surprise regarding deployment of nuclear weapons during a conflict to keep the adversary uncertain. ♦ The clearest articulation of Pakistan's “red line” came from Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai, former head of SPD, “General conditions under which Pakistan would deploy its nuclear weapons include: India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory; India destroys a large part of Pakistan's land or air forces; India blockades Pakistan in an effort to strangle it economically; or India pushes Pakistan into a state of political destabilization or creates large scale internal subversion in the country.” ♦ Due to Pakistan's strategic ambiguity and nuclear deterrence the whole Cold Start doctrine has been shattered and both the militaries have emerged at Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) scenario. Under this scenario, Cold Start and a subsequent nuclear war pose an equal threat of nuclear annihilation to both the countries. This scenario itself is a challenge for execution of Cold Start. ♦ In the realm of conventional warfare, Pakistan army has its own operational doctrine of “offensive defense”, which seeks to respond to an Indian attack with aggressive counter attacks on India. There is no way to measure the amount of power Pakistan would imply while defending against Indian attack and

launching its own while executing its offensive defense doctrine. Potentially, Pakistani response must be more ruthless and powerful than Indian incursion, and its anticipated reaction by Pakistan, to send back a strong military and political signal to New Delhi and rest of the world, at the same time. Indians will always remain ambiguous about a possible reaction by Pakistan. ♦ The threat posed by future dislocation of Indian strike elements was taken seriously, despondently Pakistan army began construction of bunkers and watch towers along Bikaner-Suratgarh in 2005 which took Indian military and press by surprise. ♦ Indian forces are not prepared to execute the entire Cold Start right now and it would take them at least ten years to attain minimum required level of preparedness for executing the entire plan. Cold Start right now is in experimental stages. This fact was highlighted vividly during post 26/11 scenario when Indian air force failed to launch any surprise surgical strike inside Pakistan despite their attempts. Indian military is busy in improving this doctrine and for that multiple war games have been conducted. ♦ As some critical Indian indigenous military programs run astray, Indian military lately relied on Western and US weapon systems, which are indeed superior technology. But there is a downside of acquiring these weapons that they take a long period before becoming operational. Pakistan and China have worked overtime to bridge this technical gap to prevent Indian military to get qualitative edge over Pakistan. Recent acquisitions of Pakistan air force have narrowed the technical gap between the two air forces to a considerable level. ♦ Maneuver warfare demands free thinking junior officers with ability to improvise and adopt rather than a lot of men trained tightly to implement “Schoolhouse Solutions”. Apart from deficiency in training specifically for maneuver warfare, Indian army is facing a stiff shortfall of at least 11,000 junior officers. ♦ Indian air force, though inducting high level weapons and combat aircraft holds a very poor record of maintenance. Indian air force has lost hundreds of its combat aircraft and pilots in attrition during the past decade. ♦ Executing Cold Start even in a conventional warfare would be not easy for India due to Pakistani ballistic and cruise missiles. Moving Indian air force strike squadrons to forward air force bases and planned displacement of armour and mechanized divisions to close proximity of international border would put large amount of Indian military strength within striking range of Pakistani ballistic and cruise missiles which have already become operational in Pakistan army. Though India has Russian made long range and high altitude surface to air missiles Cruise missile Babar –A game changer. With its (SAMs) but they are no solution to Pakistani ballistic, 700km range it is capable of taking out every cruise and air launched missiles. major Indian military base along Pakistan border.

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♦ Deployment of ballistic missiles by Pakistan (Some of them are already deployed), even with conventional warheads, would flare up a large conflict in the sub-continent which would shatter Indian dream of punishing Pakistan in a short war under a nuclear overhang. The war could get protracted, long drawn and overtly conventional. International intervention by US, China, UK, Saudi Arabia and UN would be unavoidable. This would undermine Indian designs of keeping this conflict as bilateral. ♦ Protecting and keeping supply lines open, in a protracted war of attrition, to help invaded IBGs would be a challenge for Indian forces especially once they cross into Pakistani side of international border. Apart from these IBGs, Cold Start, right now, is a nightmare from logistical point of view. Indian army would have to undertake a massive prepositioning of fuel, ammunitions, spares and other necessary goods to implement Cold Start at its fullest. Right now, this is a major deficiency of Indian army.


Pakistani Response
Despite many inherited tactical and strategic flaws in it, Cold Start was perceived as a real threat by Pakistan army as it poses a considerable national security challenge. Direct threats were made, in 2008, by then Indian military chief Gen. Deepak Kapoor and head of Indian Training Command, Lt-General A.S. Lamba of Indian preparation of a two-front war against China and Pakistan concurrently. Indian politicians denied these but current buildup of Indian military might is a clear indication that Cold Start is still a very clear and present danger to Pakistan. This threat perception of Indian doctrine is a primary driver behind Pakistan military's comprehensive modernization plan. Pakistan military establishment worked extensively on following areas to deter any Indian adventure under any doctrine or strategy. ♦ Enhancing Pakistan army's second strike capability by making ballistic and cruise missiles operational. Ghauri, Ghaznavi and Shaheen land attack ballistic missiles are operational with Army Strategic Force Command since 2006. No Anti-missile system would work accurately due to high speed of missiles and low distances between engaging targets. All surface to air missile (SAMs) systems operational in Indian

Pakistan army artillery guns fire during Azm-e-Nau 3

army are based on technology emerged during 1970's. Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) capability is hard to come due to technical challenges. Even US National Missile Defense (NMD) cannot guarantee complete safety against a barrage of incoming ballistic missiles. ♦ Since last two years, Pakistan army has enhanced its C4I2 (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence and Information) capabilities by inducting various net centric systems into its operations and trainings. These systems were tested intensively during Azm-e-Nau-3 exercises earlier this year. Noticeable fact here is that these exercises were largest in the last 20 years (since Zarb-e-Momin 1989). Some 50,000 troops took part in these exercises. Deterring Cold Start was among key objectives of these war games. Pakistan army declared 2009 as a year of training in order to make units familiar with new emerging military technologies and to devise new tactics where these technologies would be applied in future conflicts. Enhancing Pakistan army and PAF joint operation capabilities during the war and anti-terrorism operations. Pakistan army and air force conducted some of the most successful joint operations in modern counter insurgency history. Large number of terrorist hideouts, training camps and weapon dumps were destroyed in Swat and FATA regions, in these coordinated strikes. Pakistan air force conducted largest war games earlier this year under the name of “High Mark 2010”. Main purpose of this exercise was to enhance close air support to army units in battle fields. Pakistan Army's Azm-e-Nau-3 and PAF's High Mark 2010 converged in a single military exercise in later stages. Enhancing Stand-off land attack capability of PAF by inducting both new aerial platforms like F-16M, JF-17 Thunder and various air-to-ground weapon systems like H-2, H-4 and Ra'ad ALCM (Air Launched Cruise Missile). With their long stand-off ranges (60km,120km and 350km respectively) these weapons provide PAF with excellent operational flexibility and lethality in its air to ground operations against any invading enemy into Pakistan. PAF fighters loaded with these weapons and flying in own skies would be a much bigger challenge for invading Indian army units to cope with. JF-17 Thunder project holds a significant importance in the sense that being a self designed and self made fighter jet it would enable PAF to eliminate numerical disparity visà-vis Indian air force. In all previous Pak-India conflicts this numerical superiority of enemy remained a serious problem for PAF.

Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) Ra’ad

♦ Induction of AEW&C (Airborne early warning and control) capability. Swedish Erieye and future procurement of Chinese ZDK-03 AWACS platforms. These platforms have enabled Pakistan air force and army to detect enemy movement early in order to build a prompt response with required lethality.

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State of the art Erieye AWE&C is a tremendous boost in PAF’s C4I2 capabilities

These systems with their powerful radars can look deep into enemy territory while flying well inside Pakistani air space. ♦ On the axis of militancy, Indians are also losing ground and getting desperate as Pakistan military is destroying Indian backed insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan. Window of opportunity for Indians is closing fast now as they were banking too much on their 4th generation war and subsequently US pressure on Pakistan for “securing” Pakistan's strategic assets. This is not happening. While PAF and Army remain aggressive in weapon procurement and training, Pakistan Navy remains a matter of grave concern. After the arrival of this PPP regime, Navy has delayed or perhaps cancelled inexplicably the procurement of lethal German U-214 class submarines which were to be the spearhead of any Pakistani sea defenses and were giving nightmares to the Indian Navy. Despite extensive studies by SMAP (Submarine Acquisition and Procurement) group of the Navy, which had recommended the new German subs, the proposal was rejected by the government without any reason. No new Subs have been inducted in the last 10 years while the French Agosta 90-B subs are aging fast. Submarine force is the cutting edge of Navy. Right now, there is something seriously wrong with it. Indians are aggressively modernizing their submarine force while Pakistani submarine force is facing serious crisis. In any future war with India, this criminal betrayal of national security would cost the nation dearly. Pakistan Navy is the weakest link in the three armed forces at the moment and Indians are aggressively cashing in on the opportunity. This modernization program of Pakistan armed forces is envisaged to complete in 2019, almost the same time when Indian army would complete its current procurements. But these preparations are in conventional sphere of warfare. Pakistan military has made it clear that in case of any misadventure by Indian military,

Pakistan will deploy non-conventional weapons as well. A clear threshold for this deployment is not defined purposefully. Indians want to avoid this scenario while executing Cold Start but this is an unavoidable eventuality due to massive numerical disparity in both the forces. Indeed all these preparations to counter Indian designs are an expensive undertaking for a country like Pakistan but in the realms of warfare and combat, military plans are devised keeping the enemy capabilities under consideration, not the intentions.

Recent Development
Recently, Indian military and political leadership has tried to conceal the preparations of Cold Start behind the bravado of Indian military being “defensive” in nature. But it was not very long ago when General Deepak Kapoor's (former Indian army Chief) statement about Indian IBGs entering into Pakistan in 72 to 96 hours created ripple effects in already turbulent Pakistan- India relations. Indian political leadership was quick to do damage control. In November 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in Washington;

“Pakistan faces no threat whatsoever from our country and that is the stated position of the Government of India”.
This statement means nothing keeping the Indian military buildup in mind. Indian military's current and future procurement plans negates loudly the rhetoric of peace by the Indian premier. Current Indian army chief, General VK Singh responded in following words when asked about Cold Start;

“There is nothing called 'Cold Start'. As part of our overall strategy we have a number of contingencies and options, depending on what the aggressor does. In the recent years, we have been improving our systems with respect to mobilization, but our basic military posture is defensive,”
Though this statement was issued to divert world attention from Indian military buildup and weaponization but even this statement gave the hint of what Indian military is up to. Mobilization is the key in maneuver warfare to implement doctrines like Cold Start. It was fast mobilization in Operation Meghdoot in 1984 that enabled Indian military to capture strategically important Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La passes around Siachen glacier. All three are still under Indian control. Element of surprise and swift mobilization ensured the success in Operation Meghdoot and this is what Indian military is eying in future conflicts as well. Whole theme of Cold Start is inspired by this operation of Indian army in 1984 as well as by the Arab-Israeli war of 1967, when Israel defeated armed forces of three Arab nations in just a few hours exploiting the elements of secrecy, surprise, swiftness and ruthlessness.

Final Thoughts
Pakistan's security challenges are multidimensional with diverse internal and external dynamics. At present, it is internal conflict that is the center of gravity in national security threat perception. Army's top brass has also

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declared that it is the internal conflict which is the biggest challenge but at the same time it has also made clear that Pakistan cannot ignore what is happening on the Eastern front. Cold Start is a threat looming around the Eastern fronts but it is the situation on the Western theatre which would decide the outcome of the war on Eastern border. If Pakistan army remains engaged in a war on the Western border, Indians would have a decisive edge in any future conflict. Pakistan's national security dilemma is multifaceted where the army is fighting a ruthless war on internal front, holding both lines on Eastern and Western theatres. The mission is made more difficult in the absence of any political leadership or diplomatic vision and due to a confused media which does not support the national security requirements of the era. It is necessary for Pakistan to bring this internal menace to an end now, whose centre of gravity lies in Afghanistan. US presence in Afghanistan is part of the problem and not part of the solution for Pakistan. It seems clear that the fate of Cold Start would also be decided in the gorges of Afghanistan. If Pakistan can close the Western theatre and focus entirely on the Eastern front, Cold Start would remain a non-starter. If India is not prepared to launch the Cold Start now, the fact remains that Pakistan is also not prepared enough to face it yet. Future wars would be urban, decentralized, asymmetric, high intensity, irregular, multiple front conflicts fought by regular armies that would be desperate to keep it conventional in a nuclear age. While Pakistan may have the luxury to pick and choose its weapons and policies, time is one luxury Pakistan does not have. With 4GW already in the advanced stages, Cold Start is just around the corner too. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (Oct 2010) Vol.1 No. 5

2 Indian Ocean

Battlefield for Dominance
Shahzad Masood Roomi

War of dominance over Indian Ocean & Asian ‘High Seas’ and its impact on Pakistan’s maritime interests.
A comparative analysis of Pakistan Navy’s operational readiness against traditional and emerging maritime threats "Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean would be a prominent player on the international scene. This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the twenty-first century; the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters"
US Navy strategist Rear Admiral Alfred Thayus Mahan (1840-1914)

“Whosoever can hold the sea has command of everything.”
Themistocles (524 - 460 B.C.) 21st century is Asia’s century. Not in economic terms only, as Asia has been playing a key role in global economy since last two decades, but more in geo-political and geo-strategic terms. Asia is center stage of global politics making it most dynamic strategic and military zone in the world.US took the role of sole super power and set following strategic objectives for next century to consolidate her control. 1. Defending of Israel with religious fervor and zeal at any cost. 2. Capturing and controlling energy resources dotted across the Africa, Gulf and Central Asia.

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3. Capturing and controlling strategic trade and energy corridors; both on land and sea to exploit the captured energy resources and to expand trade markets including weapons. 4. Destruction of political model of Islam by defacing it as a violent philosophy. 5. Encirclement of China. 6. Encirclement of Russia. It seems little over stretched idea or a biased analysis of regional geopolitics but even examining the abridgement of American wars in Asia after 9/11 vindicates the US intent to pursue these grand strategy objectives. Using terrorism and war on terror as frontage US actually established military footprint in strategic nerve points across Asia. Middle East, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Central Asia along with all land and sea trade and energy corridors are areas of interest for US. All these foreign policy objectives are actually different phases of one large scheme of asserting US control over whole Eurasian region with Africa and Oceania regions acting as peripheries. Eurasian equation has two major components, First Europe and Atlantic Ocean and Asia and Indian Ocean. With the inception of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949, European part of Eurasian equation was solved. Soviet empire was a major impendence in US designs which was eradicated in 1991. Accomplishment of her foreign policy for US due emergence of strong interests. This economic now into investment in growing economy; ChiGulf States and Inamples. Traditional Japan, India-PakiTaiwan, US invaand Iraq, Indiatween both Koshaped the Asian for the 21st cenraces, increased a desire of ubiquiin Indian Ocean dominate trends. goals has become a complex undertaking economies in Asia with divergent growth has been transformed respective militaries by every na, Japan, South Korea, dia are most apparent exrivalries like Chinastan, China-US over sion in Afghanistan China, and rift berean states have resecurity architecture tury where arm defense budgets and tous military presence by major players are


Entire US scheme of asserting itself in whole Eurasia and consequent conflicts revolve around littoral nations of Indian Ocean. The strategic seaports dotted across Asia are going to play a decisive role in coming years due to their multipurpose nature. These ports include Gawadar (Pakistan), Chennai (Madras; India), Colombo (Sri Lanka), Jakarta (Indonesia), Kolkata (Calcutta; India), Mumbai (Bombay; India), Richards

Bay (South Africa) and Karachi (Pakistan). Some of these ports are critical choking points for international sea line of communications and others are gateways to the land locked regions. So, the idea of controlling Eurasia intrinsically includes Indian Ocean and geography of its littoral nations as areas of interest for US. Without controlling Indian Ocean, it would remain impossible for any power to held Africa and Oceanic regions in her sway as well. Africa is another very important region for global players due to its vast energy resources and minerals and a conflict of interests between China and US is already visible in this region both are desperate to cultivate political, economic and military interests from this region. US have expanded its strategy of asserting control by igniting wars to the coastline of Somalia behind the façade of anti terrorism and anti-piracy missions. Apart from strategic significance, economically Indian Ocean is full of natural resources making it a natural attraction for not only US but for regional players as well. Large reserves of hydrocarbons are being tapped in the offshore areas of Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, and Western Australia. An estimated 40% of the world's offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean. This ocean is the super highway for trading oil and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) from Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula –a region with world’s 45% of total energy resources –across the world. Protecting these sea lanes is another factor contributing rise of regional naval powers, particularly Indian and China two countries whose energy needs depend on these sea lanes.

Trading sea lanes of Indian Ocean and switching monsoon

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Indian Ocean includes all of the major seas in the region; Andaman Sea, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Great Australian Bight, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Mozambique Channel, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Strait of Malacca, and other tributary water bodies. Indian Ocean is a 68.556 million sq km Body of water between Africa, the Southern Ocean, Asia, and Australia with a coastline stretching to 66,526 km in total share by all littoral nations. Global powers have been scuffling against each other to control Indian Ocean since last 30 years. Russian wanted to climb down to Arabian Sea in search of warm waters and now US/NATO want climb up from South to secure vast energy resources in Central Asia. After demise of Soviet Union, the emergence of China as next big economic and military might has posed serious challenges to US dominance particularly when former is bogged down in two losing and protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with a thinning economy back at home. Economically, US already dependent on China but in military sphere lingering expeditions by United States provided China with an opportunity to modernize its military machine including its Navy. According to an estimate by American military analyst Robert D. Kaplan, within next 15 years, Chinese Navy would be operating more submarines than US Navy operates today. Likewise, in military aviation, China is leading the world with most number of fighter jet projects running concurrently by any nation. Right now, China is working on a broad array of fighter jet models ranging from basic 4th generation fighters to advanced 5th generation stealth bomber fighters. But this emergence of China as a major power player must not be construed as the end of US dominance. Despite economic strains and military humiliation in Iraq and Afghanistan, US is determined to achieve its strategic goals by waging dirty wars using its political and diplomatic apparatus. Newly formed alliance with India, to counterweight China, is yet another embodiment of this undertaking. Apart from China, India has emerged as another important regional player with global ambitions and now is enhancing her power projection capabilities in Indian Ocean. Currently, Indian Navy is world’s fifth largest naval force but it would take 3rd position, after China and US, within next 15 years. This is most disturbing part from Pakistan’s maritime security point of view. Pakistan and India would never be at peace with each other particularly with issues like Kashmir and Water has been lurking around to be solved since last 64 years. Newly found Indo-US strategic partnership is already haunting Pakistan’s security interests as US is providing India with state of the art weapons systems. On another axis, both RAW and CIA are working covertly on a plan of independent Baluchistan to capture all critical Gawadar port and its related trade and energy corridors towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is Pakistan’s security dilemma that Indian rivalry and US “partnership” both are hurting Pakistan. At the end of first decade of 21st century, it is evident that contest for controlling Indian Ocean and Asian ‘High Seas’ has been instigated already. With emergence of new stakeholders in the region the game is going to be more sinister and complex. Strategic understanding of Indian Ocean is critical to analyze this multifaceted, ambitious and intrigues thrash-about.

The Contest, the Players & the Arena
The geography of Indian Ocean and littoral states can be categorized strategically into five major categories. Whosoever would control these strategically important geographic locations would have all trading sea lanes

under his control. ♦ Strategic water access ways and choking Points: connecting two seas through natural or artificial water bodies and the points where international trade can be blocked due to constricted width of seaways. There are four crucial access waterways facilitating international maritime trade, these are the Suez Canal in Egypt, Bab-el-Mandeb, Straits of Hormuz, and Straits of Malacca. ♦ Multi-purpose strategic ports: These ports serve for civilian and military purposes both. Dual purpose ports are vital national assets Karachi port in Pakistan, Mumbai in India, Hambantota in Sri Lanka are some of the examples. ♦ International sea lines of communications: Sea lanes for trade of oil and LNG from Persian

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Gulf to US, China and India lie under this category. ♦ Land based trade corridors connected to coastlines: Land trading routes connecting land locked regions to international coastline. Ports of Gawadar and Charbahar are perhaps only two ports in the entire region who serve the purpose of multipurpose seaports. Gawadar is closet seaport for Central Asian region through Gawadar –Chaman and Gawadar –Torkhum corridors and for Western China through Gawadar –Khunjrab corridor. ♦ Strategic Islands: Islands with naval installations with capability to interrupt maritime trade of any other nation. These include Socotra near HOA (Horn of Africa), Diago Garcia at heart of Indian Ocean South of India, Adaman and Nicobar in Bay of Bengal, Dhalak in Red Sea and state of Sri Lanka. The whole struggle for controlling Indian Ocean revolves around these strategically important geographic vortexes. So they have become innately critical to US, China and India are three major naval forces in the Indian Ocean with ambitious designs. At present, US Navy is the only blue water navy operational backed by US political force operationally divided into various US Naval fleets each responsible for a specific Ocean or region. To capture above mentioned strategically important geographic points, US is using CIA created ghost of terrorism to write the pretexts under which US military is expanding its areas of interests across the Indian Ocean. “Unleash terrorism in a country and then go there to clean the mess!” is undeclared US policy tactics in 21st century and have worked perfectly in in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia allowing expansion of US military footprint. Lastest of the series is the way US has used the excuse of Somali pirates to capture all important Socotra island strategically located at the opening of Gulf of Aden. Fullfledge military bases, both airforce and naval, would be establsihed there.
Socotra Island, Yemen – New house of US Navy and airforce in Arabian Sea


US Navy and air Force installations on Diago Garcia

US navy has already its presence in Gulf of Aden, Red sea and Persian Gulf. Newly built naval and air force bases on Socotra island would US to keep an eye on northern Arabian sea and Somalian pennisula at same time. Coming towards south, in Indian Ocean, Diago Garcia support base which was established in 1970s was converted into a complete US airforce operational base, in 2002, with B-52 and B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on it. This strategic move by US military to have operational base in heart of Indian Ocean has enabled US airforce to launch bombardment missions anywhere in Asia. This base was used extensively durring US invasion in Iraq in 2003. Apart from that, this base provides US Navy an unchallenged grip over Indian Ocean. Towards the East, strategically important Malacca strait is controlled and managed by US navy as well. The strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, China, Japan and South Korea. It is interesting how US mounted pressure on Malaysia to allow US maritime presence in strait to protect against threats of terrorism and piracy despite the fact that no evidenace of these terrorists and pirates were found in the strait. Another noticeable fact here is, US announced Malacca Strait as a maritime danger zone two years after an attack on a US navy destroyer, named USS Cole, in Gulf of Aden located thousands of miles away from strait of Malacca.

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US Bases on Okinawa island in Pacific near China and protest by Japanese against these bases

In East Asian region, US navy and air force have permanent bases in Japan and South Korea since 1940s and 1950s with more than 60,000 US troops deployed permanently. These bases provide US military with opportunity to monitor the Pacific rim of Indian Ocean and to keep Chinese maritime developments under a constant check. This region is critical for US as part of its policy of encircling China. Taiwan Strait is a potential war theratre in South China Sea. US is supporting Taiwan’s government with latest weapon systems but at same time vows to support “One China” policy adopted by communist party of China. US military bases and training camps exist on strategic Japanese island of Okinawa since World War II. Despite svere protests and demands of Japanese public, US is not willing to close all of its facilities on the island. Peoples Liberation Army Navy of China (PLAN) conduct counter intelligence missions in vicinity of the island on regular basis as well. In April 2010, Japanese authorities notified the detection of tens of Chinese intelligence gathering ships and submarines near Okinawa. Moving towards Southeast Asia, Iran and Pakistan are two countries sharing the coastline of extreme strategic importance to US policy goals in the region. Only Pakistan and Iranian ports are one that connects Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf to Central Asia, China and even to Europe through land road/rail links. Gawadar is actually the port which connects Eurasia to Indian Ocean through Arabian Sea. US/NATO, India and Israel

Adjacent to Gawadar, Iranian Navy pertols on of the most critical choking points of World Oil trade; Strait of Hurmoz. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, an average of about 15 tankers carrying 16.5 to 17 million barrels of crude oil normally pass through the strait every day, making it one of the world's most strategically important choke points. This represents 40% of the world's seaborne oil shipments, and 20% of all world shipments. Despite operating a brown water navy in a costal defense role, Iran can erupt global oil trade due to its control over Strait of Hurmoz. Securing this important choking point is natural strategic aim of US. US military might is suffering economic backlash of protracted war on terror forcing it to adobt new tactics to expand its maritime footprint in and around Persian gulf and Arabian Sea. In Arabian sea, US along with 26 other countries has established Combined Military Force (CMF) to counter threats of Somali pirates in Arabian Sea. This force is further divided into 3 task forces each assigned to fight against terrorism, piracy and human trafiking. This arrangement has allowed US Navy to quietly expand its maritime area of interests to all the seaports and coastline belonging to respective littoral nations. Question remains that why US is not helping its “allies” to built their own naval capabilities to deter these threats of terrorism and piracy according to their own maritime strategic vision and priorities instead of including their naval assets to these task forces? Now US navy has unlimited and unristricted surveillance of seaports, naval bases and sea lanes in the region. Pakistan’s Gawadar port and Makran coastline is extremely vital for China and Pakistan. Here American interests are in head on collision with Pakistani and Chinese interests but amazingly Pakistan is still a partner in CMF working mainly under US navy 5th fleet. Summerizing all this manevurings by US, it is clear that US is desprately working of capturing all major strategic geographic points in Indian Ocean to assert itself and to block Chinese Dragon from entering into Indian Ocean. US maritime strategy in context of securing important maritime strategic geographic locations can be summerzie as under; ♦ US Naval force projection capabilities and force repositioning gruantee that it can block any trade route if necessary and it can force other countries like Iran to open a blocked water lane in case of hostalities. ♦ US Navy is getting all regional navies combined under CMF expanding naval espionage and intelligence gathering to entire Arabian sea coastline. It is also pressing to establish its footprint on strategically

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all want Gawadar, hence whole Baluchistan, to secede from Pakistan in order to prevent Chinese access to Arabian Sea and to secure the most reliable and shortest corridor for US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Chinese Navy is desperately looking for a friendly naval base. US Navy already has exercised amphibious landing on Makran coastline in Baluchistan. Apart from it, In September 2009, Pakistani media was buzzed with stories of a potential base for 200 US marines at Gharo, Sindh. This conflict of interests have triggered a full blown dirty war in Baluchistan encompassing terrorism, ethnic violence and lingustic hatred as some of its main tactics. This is most sinister aspect of global grate game!

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located seaports like Makran. ♦ All major choking points in and around Indian Ocean, other than Strait of Hurmoz, are controlled by US Navy. ♦ US Navy already had bases on strategic islands in Indian Ocean it is going to expand them on other islands in future as well. ♦ Finally, US is encircling Eurasia. It established militray bases on both sides of Atlantic and Pacific, after World War II; two Ocean encompass whole Eurasia from West and East. Now US is advancing from South to North in the region by asserting herself in Indian Ocean as well. Another very important geographic aspect of this US war for Eurasia is the way it is affecting social fabric of Muslim nations dotted across the Indian Ocean coastline. Whole Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and African Muslims nations like Somalia, Sudan and Bangaladesh are in eye of the storm due to covert intrigues of CIA and Mossad. US policy of securing its interests in the region by redrawing Middle East revolve around the presence of fear monster of terrorism which is a brain child of CIA. The covert US agency’s Special Activity Division (SAD) has created its assets in the region, particularly in Pakistan’s tribal belt of FATA, to wrek hovac so that US can later use this “Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism” as an excuse to invade more Muslim lands. Stunningly, whole Middle East and AF-Pak region is in turmoil eversince US invaded Afghanistan. Now it is established fact that invasions in Afghanistan and Iraq were precursor of igniting sectarian wars across Muslim heartland so that Greater Middle East can be redrawn. On the other hand, political philosphy of Islam (i.e system of Khilafah) has been destorted and devastated by these US sponsered assets like AlQaeda and TTP. After US, China is second major power player in Indian Ocean having highest stakes. Pakistani military establishment and China are aware of US/NATO game plan Makran coastline and are working closely once again on Gawadar port, control of which once again has been given to back to Chinese recently. In order to secure its oil supplies from Persian Gulf, China is embacked on a strategy of building ports in countries with warm diplomatic relations. In this regard, China has built number of seaports along the Asian coastline; Gawadar, Hambentota, Chittagong, Coco islands in Maldeves and a port in Maynmmar (Burma). There is a real possibility that in future China use these ports as naval bases away from Chinese shores to force projection in Indian Ocean and declaring its navy as a “Blue Water Navy”. But right now, Taiwan is more important issue for China. All major Chinese Naval installations are cocentrated along the Taiwan Strait. Certainly China cannot leave the ports she built away from home ungaurded. US is navigating in troubled waters of East China sea and Pacific projecting its force and support for independent Taiwan. Not only this but US is also supporting India to build its Naval strength to deter its Chinese counterpart. Major rivilary between US and China began with an incident On 27 October 1994, When USS Kitty Hawk, a USN aircraft carrier, while on routine patrol in the international waters off the Yellow Sea collided with a Chinese Han class nuclear submarine. In response the United States dispatched an S-3 Viking antisubmarine patrol aircraft to screen the movements of the Han class submarine. China meanwhile had earlier ordered two F-6 fighter jets to tail and monitor the S-3. As the tension at sea built-up an American attaché in Beijing was informed by the Chinese that China will take all necessary measures to defend its air and maritime space from being violated. This incident signaled China’s intention to operate its navy in the high seas beyond its coastal waters – an area that has traditionally considered preserved by the Americans.


Chinese Sea Line of Communication through Malacca Strait

Apart from Taiwan problem, the dependece of Chinese SLOC on Malacca Strait is a big potential threat. De spite having world’s second largest economy, China is dependent on imported raw material and oil. Strait of Malacce is the most critical choking point in Indian Ocean and unfortunately for China this is biggest potential single point of failure for Chinese oil supplies which literally run the Chinese economic engine. Mokhzani Zubir and Mohd Nizam Basiron at ‘Centre for Maritime Security & Diplomacy Malysia’ described Chinese sensitivity about Strait of Malacca in these words;

“Given its importance to China’s economic survival it comes as no surprise when Beijing indicated that it is prepared to protect the shipping routes which are important to China’s economy. This is bolstered by China’s statement that China has strategic interest in these important sea routes and would use its naval might to ensure that these sea lanes remain open. Zhao Yuncheng, an expert from China’s Institute of Contemporary International Relations went even further and suggested that whoever controls the Straits of Malacca and the Indian Ocean could threaten China’s oil supply route. His conclusions were echoed by President Hu Jiantao who said that the “Malacca-dilemma” is the key to China’s energy security. Hu hinted that several powers (the US included) has tried to enlarge their scope of influence in the Straits of Malacca by controlling or attempting to control navigation in the Straits of Malacca.”

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Due to these problems, China is compelled to have a two oceans navies and this is where China is heading to. Chinese Navy, backed by massive economy, is on its way to become second largest navy in the world. Despite building an array of seaports along coastline of friendly littoral nations, Chinese SLOCs remains vurenable at the moment and Chinese Navy is not in a position to assert itself in Indian Ocean or even in Arabian Sea where Indian Navy along with its US counterpart is holding control. This has forced China to declare its ports away from home to be declared as civilian and commercial only. India is third major player in Indian Ocean. With a large Navy and ambitious aspirations, India is expanding her footprint not only in Indian Ocean but also looking towards Pacific as part of her “Look East” strategy. After 9/11, India became biggest strategic partner of US and now both are working closely to deter Chinese threat but Indians have their own maritime gameplan which confines not only to Indian Ocean but encompasses Pacific as well. US would never like India to be that capable but rightnow they have a common interest in Indian Ocean and in the region. Contraction of its naval force, despite being global super power, is disturbing for US military. Surface fleet of US navy is depliting while Chinses and Indian Navies are expanding. To make for this loss, US has devised a regional strategy of forging maritime alliances with friendly countries as part of its foreign policy. Resultantly, military cooperation between India and US has increased manifold since 9/11 and navy is not an exception in this regard. Indian ambitions of becoming a global power are nothing new. Post 9/11 geo-political and geostrategic milieu provided conducible environment to India to pursue her global aspirations. Becoming a two ocean navy is a declared motto of Indian naval forces. Indian Navy is going to become world’s 3rd navy from world’s 5th one. Right now Indian Navy comprises on following strength; In 2004, Indian Navy adopted new aggressive doctrine and following areas were identified as priorities for Indian Navy in 21st century. ♦ Controlling the choke points, significant islands and trade routes in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal. ♦ Inclusion of Persian Gulf and Strait of Malacca as legitimate area of interest for first quarter of 21st century. ♦ Transforming Indian navy into a three-dimensional blue water force, having the potential to undertake significant assignments and roles “on the surface, underwater, and in the air”. Just like US maritime strategy for Indian Ocean, Indian doctrine also focus on acquiring capability of choking trade by naval blockade of sea lanes for China and Pakistan in Arabian Sea. For Indians, Chinese built seaports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Maldives are major concerns despite repeated Chinese assurances that China has no intent to expand its maritime presence in Arabian Sea. Indian military strategists named these Chinese bases as “String of Pearls” and declared it an attempt by China to encircle India. Though Chinese built ports in friendly countries including Pakistan have the potential to affect balance of power in Indian Ocean between China and India but right now Indian fear sounds more like a far cry from

In the East, in Bay of Bengal, Indian navy’s main target is to deter Chinese investment on seaports built in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar by having the capacity to choke Chinese oil trade. Apart from that Indian navy is eying to operate in Pacific for that it needs massive power projection capability. This goal is further signified by ambitious program of building aircraft carriers locally. ANC is going to play a major role in achieving these goals. On the Western theatre, in Arabian Sea, Indian naval ambitions have expanded farther from Pakistan. Indian navy, even now has a massive power projection capability vis-à-vis its Pakistani equivalent due to massive gap in qualitative and numerical terms. Middle East, particularly Persian Gulf and Africa are among Indian navy’s long term ambitions. Indian Navy has already established its electronic monitoring and listening stations Madgascar and Maldives, deep into Indian Ocean, far from Indian costal precincts.

“String of Pearls” - Chinese built ports in Indian Ocean along with Nicobar & Andaman islands

Interestingly, Israelis are also navigating through turbulent waters of Indian Ocean and their presence in Arabian Sea along with Iranian and Pakistani maritime borders have been confirmed now. Israel established a secret logistics naval base on a strategic island of Dahalak, Eretria, with US funding, close to Bab e Mandel in Red Sea. Here Israeli Dolphin Class submarines and Corvettes get supplies while entering into Arabian Sea where at least one Dolphin class submarine, armed with Jerricho and Popye Turbo nuclear tipped cruise missiles, maintain her presence. This base was established after a secret agreement by Israeli and Eritrean government in 1995. From this island, no single vessel can traverse Red Sea and Arabian Sea remaining undetected by Israelis. This base proves that HOA is also included into area of interest. Involvement of all these major actors along with regional countries, the swath of Indian Ocean is a maritime

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reality. India is inflating Chinese threat out of proportion so that newer and latest weapons can be acquired from US and West to break the Chinese string of pearls with the help of Indian Naval metal chain; a term devised by some Indian experts for Andamen Nicobar Command (ANC) and Indian bases on Nicobar and Andamen islands in Bay of Bengal. Existing strength of 3000 troops has been increased to a division level force of 15000 troops. Most significant modification was to extending the existing airstrip so that Indian Air force Su-30MKI fighter jet can land on these islands.

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arena where these players are busy in making new alliances and strategic repositioning of their naval assets along with building new capabilities. Understanding all these facets of this struggle is important for putting Pakistani maritime defenses and future threat assessment in a perspective.

Balance of Naval Powers in Indian Ocean in context of Pakistan’s Naval defenses
In context of ongoing struggle for controlling Eurasia after redrawing Middle East, including Pakistan, the entire South Asian region has fallen apart into two camps with conflicting security interests. On is onboard with US war on terror, a US recipe to expand her military footprint and push her grand objectives. Other group of nations wants to bring this US expansion in the region to a halt. China, Iran and North Korea do not want US presence in the region and in Indian Ocean with power projection capability to undermine their interests while on the other hand Gulf countries and Pakistan are partners of US maritime task forces working under US navy 5th fleet. USA Though due to protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, US Navy is decreasing in number but increasing its effectiveness and lethality by incorporating latest state of the art systems. At the end of Cold War US Navy had a surface fleet strength of 600 ships which declined to 350 in Clinton administration and now has decreased further to 289 ships. It is still a formidable force as it has 3,700 aircraft at its disposal across the globe. Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and Red sea are monotired by US Navy’s 5th fleet which was reactivated in 1995 after a hibernation of 48 years making USN at three ocean navy. It consists of two air craft carrier strike groups along with number of destroyers, attack submarines, amphibious landing ships and numbers of auxiliray ships with its headquarter in Manama, Bahrain. US Navy 5th fleet comprises on various task forces each responsible for dedicated tasks. ♦ 1 x Forward Deployed Carrier Strike Group ( having 2 aircraft carriers) ♦ 1 x Expeditionary Strike Group (haiving multiple amphibious land platforms) ♦ Task Force 52, mining/demining force ♦ Task Force 53, Logistics Force/Sealift Logistics Command Central, Military Sealift Command (MSC replenishment ships plus USN MH-53E Sea Stallion helicopters and C-130 Hercules, C-9 Skytrain II and/ or C-40 Clipper aircraft) ♦ Task Force 54, (dual-hatted as Task Force 74) Submarine Force ♦ Task Force 55, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Constellation Carrier Strike Force; June 2003: mine clearing force, including elements from the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program ♦ Task Force 56, Navy Expeditionary Combat Command force.

CVN -75, USS Harry S. Truman. Part of USN 5th Fleet

♦ Task Force 57, (dual-hatted as Task Force 72) Patrol and Reconnaissance Force (P-3 and EP-3 Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft) ♦ Task Force 58, Maritime Surveillance Force (Northern Persian Gulf)

AOR of US Navy 5th fleet includes Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea and territory of 25 countries in Southeast Asia and Middle East.

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♦ Task Force 59, Expeditionary Force/Contingency Force (when required) Below given map explains that 5th fleet has a very small area of responsibility. China Chinese Navy (PLAN) is the largest naval force in Asia but quality of surface and sub surface fleet remains a crucial problem of Chinese Navy’s efficacy. Chinese Naval technology traditionally relied on Russian origin. China is just entering into modern warfare. Some of its home grown surface fleet ships proven their seaworthiness in Gulf of Aden where they sustained their operations for more than 120 days without any support from nearby bases. But it would certainly going to take a while befor China could have a real force projection capability particualry, in the field of aircraft carriers an area where even Indian navy is superiror than Chinese in terms of quality, quantity and experience. Currently Chinese Naval strength is as under; Strength Force Size : 255,000 ♦ Surface Force ♦ Destroyer: 26 ♦ Frigate: 49 ♦ Large landing Ship: 27 ♦ Medium landing Ship: 31 ♦ Fast attack craft: 200+ Submarine ♦ SSBN: 3 ♦ SSN: 5~7 ♦ SSK: 56 Naval Aviation ♦ Manpower: 26,000 ♦ Aircraft: 400~500 PLAN recently started to induct advanced jetfighter. China is talking to Russians for supplies of SU-33 ship borne fighters for Chinese air craft carrier which is under constrcution right now.



Chinese Billistic Missle Submarine

Iranian Navy’s strength lies in its fleet of 13 submarines which also include Russian Kilo class disel powered submarines. Despite suffering from major economic and military scanctions from US after 1979’s Islamic revolution in Iran, Iranian Navy revised its strcture in 1990s and adopt many new plateform of Russian, Chinese and Noth Korean origin.Right now, Iranian Navy has a limited power projection capability in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. According to latest news from Press TV Iran, country is going to start an assembly line for home grown submarines. This is a significant development as Iran would be first country in Gulf to have such an assembly line.

Gulf of Oman and Kilo Class submarine of Iranian Navy

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To strenghten its naval defenses in South China Sea, Chinese navy has built a naval submarine base on Hinanian island capable of housing 20 submarines at a time. Chinese Type 093 Han Class and Type 094 Jin Class billistic missile submarines belonging to Northern Fleet of PLAN have enabled it to project considerable power in the Pacific. But limited number of these submarines is a problem for PLAN but it would not remain so in coming decade and constrcution of Hainanian base is yet another indication of Chinese resolve of becoming a true blue water navy.

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INDIA Indian Navy executed new doctrine immediately. New naval facilities were built on both Eastern and Western shores. Indian passion of fighting a two theater war against China and Pakistan is evident in its maritime strategic planning as well. Indian Navy has undertaken a very robust strategy for building power projection capabilities. This includes 1. Establishing new Naval bases on home and foreign coastal line 2. Acquiring latest surface and sub surface weapon systems 3. Enhancing local ship / submarine building capabilities


4. Bilateral / Multilateral naval exercises to enhance operational readiness First phase of this doctrine was completed in 2005 with the construction of a new larger naval base INS Kadamba at Karwar in Karnataka. This port was envisioned in 1980 but was adopted only in 1999 under the project Seabird. This project was initiated to separate Indian naval bases from its commercial ports. Apart from this, major naval bases of Indian navy exist in Mumbai, Vishakhapatnam and Kochi. Visakhapatnam can provide berths for fifty vessels alone. As Indian Naval ambitions are stretched to entire swath of Indian Ocean from HOA to Pacific rim of the Indian Ocean, in South China Sea. Indian navy is acquiring aircraft carrier, nuclear submarines, Anti ship missiles, amphibious landing docks and ship mounted theatre defense Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems to project power as region’s only expeditionary naval force. Indian target is to get three aircraft carriers operational till 2020. Indian navy already operates an aircraft carrier INS Viraat which received a major upgrade in 2006 when Israeli Barak Anti Missile System was installed. Supplementing this would be 44,500 tons INS Vikramaditya, ex-Russian Admiril Gorshkov aircraft carrier, with a capacity to house 16 state of the art Mig-29K ship borne fighters for carrying out strike and anti-ship missions. Currently, Indian Naval’s air arm depends on British Sea

INS Vikramaditya undergoing massive refit in Russia along with Russian MIG-29K

Along with its multiple carrier operating ambitions, Indian navy also has a very robust submarine programs which includes acquisition of both conventional and nuclear powered attack submarines. Unlike China and US, Indian naval fleet has no ballistic missile submarine with it but nuclear powered conventional submarine capability has been acquired with the help of Russian assistance. Indian navy is going to operate Russian nuclear powered submarine Akula-II on a 10 years lease which would be commissioned in Indian Navy as INS Chakra. Indian crew was trained, at St. Petersburg in 2008, to operate nuclear powered submarines. This training helped Indian Navy in its own nuclear submarine project, Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV), which has been secretively since 1980s. First ship with name INS Arihant has been launched in 2009. Interestingly, the symbolic launch ceremony was held on 26th July the day Indian army celebrates as “victory” in Kargil war 1999. This symbolic gesture indicates the intentions of Indian navy regarding future area of deployment of these subs. Second Arihant class boat is under construction right now at Shipbuilding Centre (SBC), Visakhapatnam. In conventional submarine arena, Indian Naval strength lies on 10 Russian build Kilo class sub marines. These boats are armed with Klub anti-ship missiles and are considered as one of the quietest subs in the world due its double hull architecture. Apart from that, German Type 209 submarines are also part of Indian Navy. To maintain a modern submarine fleet, Indian Navy is in process of inducting 6 French Scorpene attack submarines and another follow up order of 6 will follow the induction of 6 more conventional attack submarines. India would acquire latest variant of Exocet anti-ship missiles along with Scorpene submarines. Just like its sub surface fleet, Indian navy is going to induct latest surface combatants in the fleet. Guided Missile Destroyers and frigates armed with BrahMos cruise missiles are mainstay of Indian Naval surface fleet. With help of Russia, India has acquired the capabilities to produce 6000-8000 tons destroyers locally. Russian firm Severnoye Design Bureau helped India to build Dehli class destroyers equipped with surface to air missile system like Barak-1 , Anti-ship missiles like Kh-35 (Range:130 Km) and SET-65E; anti-submarine, active & passive homing torpedo. Apart from existing destroyers, Indian Navy has a plan to build 8 new stealth guided missile Kalkuta Class Destroyers under program P-15A. First ship was launched in 2006. Primary design goal

Kilo Class submarine and Klub anti-ship missile

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Harrier jets, which are getting old now. Mig-29K are latest variant in the family and would be a tremendous boost in Indian Navy’s aviation arm with its 1650 KM combat radius, Kh-31 and Kh-35 anti-ship and anti radar missiles. By 2018, Indian navy is expected to operate its home built 40,000 tons aircraft carrier which would house 12 MIG-29K fighters for strike missions. This would be followed by a third aircraft carrier project in 50,000 tons class fitted with catapult while earlier models have been envisaged with STOBAR (Short take off barrier-arrested design).

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of this new class of destroyers is to enhance the land attack capabilities of Indian Navy with enhanced area defense role against any aerial attack with 48 Barak-8 and 32 Barak-1 SAMs. Each destroyer would have 16 BrahMos cruise missile launcher. Indian Naval build up also includes acquiring air borne surveillance, maritime patrol, anti submarine warfare (ASW) platforms. Right now, Indian Naval aviation is using Russian origin patrol aircrafts and anti submarine helicopters but it is going to be changed in near future. Most significant upgrade in Indian Naval aviation would be induction of Boeing P-8I Poseidon multipurpose maritime patrol platform. This induction would bring Indian maritime surveillance and anti submarine capabilities on par with USN owing to the fact that it is US Navy’s next generation maritime surveillance platform. For strike missions, Indian Navy already has a large fleet of Tu-22M, SEPECAT Jaguar, Sukhoi SU-30 MKI and newly inducted MIG-29K. Jaguars’s Sea Eagle missiles are to be replaced with more lethal Harpoon missiles. In the anti-submarine role the Sea King, Ka-28 and the domestic built HAL Dhruv are used.

Indian Navy’s Sea King ASW helicopter launching Sea Eagle ASHM

After strengthening its surface, sub surface fleets and naval aviation arm, next aim of Indian Navy is to transform into an expeditionary naval force. For this purpose, Indian Navy acquired 16,900 tons Landing Platform Dock (LPD) from US in 2007 which was commissioned as INS Jalashva. Acquisition of second platform is under consideration while 4 more amphibious landing ships would be acquired from Russia. These platforms would enable Indian Navy marine force to land and capture other nation’s coastline areas in a naval expedition. Analyzing this expedition ambition leaves little doubt about the real intentions of Indian Navy. Indian cannot launch an expedition mission in South China Sea while all major islands in Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal are already under Indian or US control so naturally it leaves sea shores of Pakistan as potential target of Indian build up. Furthermore, Indian maritime war preparations are in complete sync with similar aggressive drive of modernization in Indian army and air force under grand Cold Start strategy, specifically devised against Pakistan. Pakistan army and air force have taken number of responsive measures to deter Indian war ambitions under Cold Start strategy but Pakistan navy is clearly lagging behind in building adequate defenses. Unlike China and India, Pakistan Navy is a very small force with only one role; seaward Defense. But with changed geo-political

and geo-strategic regional environment, it has become compulsion for Pakistan Navy to adopt “Sea Deterrence” role. Pakistan has no ambition of regional power projection but India clearly has. Apart from Indian

INS Jalashva, Indian LPD acquired from US

threats, the way Pakistan has been portrayed as a source of international terrorism, in a ruthless and sinister media war and consequential warnings issued to Pakistan by US administration also demand a paradigm shift in strategic thinking of Pakistan Navy’s top brass while carrying out threat assessment. Clearly, Pakistan’s potential security threats have been expanded way beyond India. So enhancing its anti-ship, anti-submarine and sub-surface warfare capabilities becomes intrinsically mandatory to deny sea control to any hostile entity. Unfortunately, current strength of Pakistan Navy is not even adequate to fulfill its primary Defense role let alone sea deterrence. This is dangerous to say the least. Current naval strength of Pakistan is described below in a comparison to its Indian counterpart;

Strength Surface Ships *Aircraft Carrier Amphibious Assault Ships Dock Landing Ship Destroyers Frigates Corvettes Missile Boats Mine Sweeper

~24,000 ~11 Nil Nil 1 Nil 9 (Type 21 + F22 P) Nil 12 3

~56,000 150 1 active , (2 more to join in 2012) 1 19 8 13 24 28 8

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Sub Surface fleet Nuclear Powered Submarines Conventional Submarines Naval aviation Strike Role Fighters Maritime Surveillance ASW platform

Nil 5 40 Mirage-V (ROSE ) from PAF



Reconnaissance UAVs

2 13 250 Mig-29K IN, SU-30 MKI and Jaguar from IAF P3C Orion, Breguet- -Atlantique I Ilyushin Il-38, Tupolev Tu142, P-8I, Kamov Ka-31 P3C- Orion , Sea King, Sea King, Kamov Ka-25, F-27 Fokker, Z-9 HS-6, Kamov Ka-25 INVAA Heron, IAI Searcher MkII

* 1 Aircraft Carrier is going to build more domestically. Currently, work on two carriers is underway at Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL). Indian project delayed due to Russian declined to provide AB/grade steel, a fundamental requirement of building a large naval ship. Indians are geared to commission their first home build 40,000 tons Air Craft Carrier by the end of second decade.

This one-sided balance of naval power proves that Pakistan navy is not equipped to defend its harbors, seaports while concurrently making sure that its sea lanes keep open. Traditionally, India always enjoys naval superiority both in quality and quantity over Pakistan Navy after 1965 war when Pakistan held Arabian Sea under its control by virtue of operating only submarine platform, PNS Ghazi, of that time in the war but it changed soon as Indian strategic planners realized their weaknesses and worked them out. India was first country in Asia to operate an aircraft carrier in 1971 though PN’s submarine fleet was still a headache for Indian Navy but once PNS Ghazi was sunk whole complexion of war changed dramatically. This detail analysis of regional players draws following comparative picture of maritime balance of power in Indian Ocean.


Blue Water Navy

Role / Ambition
Power Projection, Expedition 3 Ocean Navy

Major Naval Strength
Aircraft carriers SSBM SSGN ASW EW, ECCM platform Limited SSBM SSGN Destroyers


Brown Water Navy (Large)

Power Projection Sea Denial To become Blue water till 2020


Brown Water Navy (Large)

Role / Ambition
Power Projection Sea Lane Protection To become Blue water till 2015

Major Naval Strength
SSBM SSGN Air Arm Long Range Antiship weapons Large Quantity of small missile crafts Frigate Fleet

Iran Pakistan

Brown Water Navy (Small) Brown Water Navy (Small)

Costal Defense Costal Defense

Pakistan had to pay a heavy price in 1971 war for not building adequate naval defenses. In East Pakistan, an area surrounded by India from three sides and having Bay of Bengal on fourth, the damage inflicted by the Indian Navy and Indian Air Force on the PN stood at seven gunboats, one minesweeper, two destroyers, three patrol crafts belonging to the coast guard, 18 cargo, supply and communication vessels, and large scale damage inflicted on the naval base and docks in the coastal town of Karachi. Losses from both sides are depicted in table below;

Type of Vessel
Destroyers Frigates Submarines Minesweeper Navy Aircraft Patrol boats and Gunboats Merchant Navy and others Loss on land

Indian Navy losses Pakistan Navy losses
Nil 1 ( INS Khukri) Nil Nil 1, (Alize) Nil Nil Nil 2 (PNS Kaibir, Shahjahan ) Nil 1 ( PNS Ghazi) 1 (PNS Muhafiz) Nil 7 Gunboats and 3 patrol boats 11 (including one US ammunition ship) Missile attack on Karachi harbor and oil installations.

Unfortunately, current status of Pakistan Naval procurement proves that no lesson was learnt from 1971 war particularly the way deal of Type-214 submarine was ruined in 2008 in extremely suspicious circumstances. Likewise opportunities of having Spruance Class destroyer, for fleet air defense role, were turned down in 2005 and recent reports about Pakistan Navy putting Turkish deal of Milgem Corvettes on an indefinite hold are extremely annoying. Pakistan will have to change current balance of maritime power in Arabian sea to secure its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Current status is unacceptable and cannot warranty of putting a decent fight before extinction let alone survival and victory. PN is going to pay for recent mismanagement of its acquisition programs. To adopt an effective sea denial role, some of short and long term recommendations are given below;

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1. Ballistic missile and cruise missile capabilities are Pakistan’s most lethal and reliable strength to counter balance India’s naval build up in Arabian Sea. Pakistan Naval Strategic command must adopt surface to surface medium and short range ballistic missiles in a role against Indian Navy’s land based fixed assets like Naval bases, radar stations, dockyards and harbors. An attack on main naval base like Mumbai or Cohin, during an event of war, can put a decisive philosophical scar on Indian navy’s morale. Pakistan naval bombardment on Dawarka radar station during 1965 war sent a powerful and aggressive signal to Indian navy. With a very small surface fleet, right now, Pakistan navy is in no position to undertake that kind of mission again in near future but ballistic missile capability enables Pakistan armed forces to strike at major Indian naval bases and harbors even preemptively without putting its navy into harm’s way. Land and air launched cruise missiles must be part of Navy’s aggressive doctrine to attack on enemy’s bases with sheer lethality. China is using its DF-21 missiles in anti-ship missile role against larger ships like aircraft carriers. Bottom line is that Pakistan must step up the production of its medium range ballistic missiles and some of the units must be integral part of Navy’s strategic force command with conventional warheads aimed at all major Indian naval bases. 2. Pakistan anti-Ship capabilities despite having lethal weapon systems like Harpoons and Exocet, are hindered due to limited numbers of surface and sub surface launching platforms (i.e. ships and submarines). Anti-ship and anti-submarine are the two most critical roles for any navy in the world. The deficiency of sea bound platforms can be overcome by building a strong naval air arm in strike role. Pakistan navy will have to add numbers new squadrons of JF-17 thunder equipped with C-802A missiles (Range: 180 KM). Current balance of naval aviation between Pakistan and India is heavily tilted in Indian favor. Current fleet of Mirage-V ROSE with AM-39 Exocet anti-ship missiles must be complemented by Thunders and C-802A combo. One major advantage of adding Thunders in naval role would be the economy of home grown solutions allowing Pakistan to raise more squadrons of JF-17 Thunders in naval aviation.


Pakistan Navy could not execute the submarine acquisition plan devised by SMAP due to malevolent intents by compromised elements both in political and naval establishment. German build Type-214 subs were recommended after years of evaluation work. Prior to this, deal of Agosta-90B, in 1994, also met with charges of corruption and kickbacks which turned true when investigated. An inquiry in France is underway in this regard. India is building its submarine fleet with conventional and non-conventional platforms while Pakistani decision makers remain oblivious. It must be remembered that wars are fought with conventional weapons on submarines, not nuclear weapons. It is the duty of the conventionally armed subs to advance and engage. Nuclear subs avoid the conventional threats and wait in stealth for second strike capability. Pakistan needs more conventional submarines for active defense. Under the pressure of US, now Germany and France, both have backed out and Pakistan Navy has practically lost the opportunity to induct one of the most potent sub surface platform that could have provide Pakistan Navy with real sea denial capabilities vis-à-vis Indian Navy. But this damage can be still manageable by acquiring platform available like German Type 209/Mod 1400 submarines from Turkey or second hand but proven Agosta-70 platform can be acquired from Spain or Brazil. These platforms can be modified with modern combat suits and weapon systems. Type-209 is in use with 13 navies worldwide so spare and training must be no problem. Pak-China cooperation is very critical as China remains only reliable military partner of Pakistan. Pakistan Navy has no experience of using Chinese sub surface platforms and as now Pakistan Navy is going to acquire Chinese platform, Pakistan should request PLAN to detach some of its Song class subs to train Pakistani sailors and officers. For any Chinese origin platform it must be ensured that it strictly meet PN requirements. A joint venture program can serve best just like JF-17 Thunder did for PAF. Maritime defense pact with China is a must where we can allow China to have Naval bases on our shores to counterbalance hostile threats. Pakistan Navy must also increase its naval cooperation with Iran as Iran is entering into submarine building arena with Qaeem class submarines. Prior to that, Iran already has built Nahang 1 and Ghadir class subs. On geo-strategic level, Pakistan, China and Iran must form a maritime alliance as mutual interests converge in Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. But to enter any such regional security arrangement, Pakistan will have to isolate herself from US war on terror and MNNA status given to Pakistan by US. 4. Absence of area defense destroyers is another weak area of Pakistan Navy which needs to be strengthened on war footing. With induction of MIG-29Ks in Indian Navy it is necessary for Pakistan Navy to

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3. Building an impregnable naval defense is not possible without having a robust and modern state of the art submarine fleet. India is adding all latest conventional and non-conventional submarines in her naval fleet while Pakistan’s submarine fleet is depleting fast. Pakistan does not need any SSBN or SSGN but even in conventional submarine arena, Pakistan submarine fleet is weakest link in naval defenses with just 3 reliable and relatively modern Agosta 90-B submarines. Pakistan desperately need to expand its submarine force to 12 advanced diesel and half of them must be modern submarines built on proven technologies.

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have this crucial capability to prevent IN’s naval arm from establishing air superiority. In this regard, Chinese platform with HQ-9 SAM, based on proven Russian S-300, can be a good start. PN personnel can work out with their Chinese counterparts to finalize specifications. 5. Pakistan must increase its cooperation with Turkey in Naval warfare. Recently, Turkey offered Pakistan Navy with GENESIS system for Perry class frigate which PN is going to acquire from US. Pakistan Navy must seal this important deal as GENESIS would provide some aerial defense capabilities to PN surface fleet with its SM2 missile. Pakistan Navy is also engaged with Turkey with Milgem corvette program which is one of most critical program right now to enhance surface fleet capabilities.

Final Thoughts 59
Current baleful, noxious and precarious geostrategic environment in the region has threatened Pakistan security interests like never before. Clash of interests among regional players is predominately outrageous turning high seas, littoral nations across the Asia and eventually whole Indian Ocean an active battlefield whereupon Pakistan Navy looks extremely really weak in surface, sub surface and naval aviation keeping India’s ambitious naval build up in and around Arabian Sea, both in qualitative and numerical terms. While the noose around Pakistan are being tightened on every axis of national security, Pakistan’s political leadership and successive naval top brasses remained obscured and debilitated while making critical decisions of inducting new maritime platforms in Pakistan Navy. This indecisiveness potentially could endanger entire coastline of Pakistan. Due to lack of any strategic depth between Eastern and Western borders, the coastline, Stretching from East to West, in the South cannot be left unguarded at any cost!! Pakistan Navy is the most neglected arm of the armed forces at the moment. It is from this flank that Pakistan is most vulnerable. Those, in government and in establishment, responsible for bringing about this dangerous state of affairs, are guilty of compromising Pakistan’s security. In the time of war, bravest sons of this nation, serving in Navy, would needlessly be harmed for the blunders of the rulers today. We still have time to correct this dangerous imbalance; otherwise, history neither forgets nor forgives. Neither would we.
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Securrity Review (Dec. 2010) Vol.1 No.7


3 Choosing French Submarine over German
Rational decision or risking Pakistani defence ?
Farzana Shah

Possibility of signing the accord for provision of U-214 submarines to Pakistan Navy, with Germany is still not in sight despite the offers by Germany in the recent past.

The deal hits snags due to change of mind in the current Pakistani government over purchase of German submarines. In 2008 Pakistan Navy under chief of naval staff Admiral Muhammad Afzal Tahir made efforts for including German 214 Class submarines in its fleet and owing to Navy’s persistent efforts, the government had approved plans for acquisition of these submarines to be built at Karachi Shipyard under transfer of technology programme. The details were later worked out between the two countries when a Pakistan Navy delegation visited Ger-

U – 214 multi target capability

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many in April. However recently quoting Pakistani government sources, the Financial Times Deutschland says President Asif Zardari may overrule his military’s preference for the German subs to take up a “better offer” from France. But what better submarines France can offer to Pakistan? That is a question to ponder because France has no better submarines to offer Pakistan at the moment, whereas French are indeed not ready to offer us nuclear submarine.

What France has in store?
There are three options 1. Scorpion, 2. Marlin and 3. Barracuda submarines. But again the scorpions are not superior to U 214, neither these will be having any benefit for Pakistan because French company DCN is already going to provide Scorpion to Indian Navy ahead of Pakistan. U-214 is way better than French design given to India. Marlin is just on drawing board and will take forever to go to prototype stage and then test and evaluation and finally induction into Pakistan Navy meanwhile India will have all its Scorpion in sea. DCN (Direction des Constructions Navales), France will not be able to fulfill Pakistani order ahead of Indians. Now the only option for Pakistan will be to ask for Barracuda submarine, but it is unlikely that France will sell us nuclear submarine. Barracuda is a nuclear powered submarine and France does not currently allow the sale of nuclear-propelled submarines. Despite having French Agosta B submarines, the Pakistani Navy opted for purchasing German Torpedoes for fitting to Agosta B due to the superior German technology.

Pakistan Navy needs German submarines because the German U-214 subs are far better than the French Scorpion. Following is the comparison between French subs and German U 214.

Specifications of U-214
Crew : 27 (including five officers) Torpedoes: Six 533mm tubes, 24 STN Atlas Elektronik DM2A4 torpedoes Combat Data Syetem: Basic Command and Weapons Control System (BCWCS) Countermeasures: ESM / EADS / FL1800U Decoys: TAU 2000 torpedo countermeasures system Radar: Kelvin hughes type 1007 I-band navigation radar Sonar: STN Atlas Elektronik DBQS-40 sonar suite and STN Atlas Elektronik MOA 3070 mine detection sonar Periscopes: Zeiss Optronic SERO 14 search and SERO 15 attack Propulsion: Diesel-electric, MTU 16V-396 diesel engine, 3.12MW, HDW / Siemens AIP (Air-Independent Propulsion) system, 300kW U214 Dimensions Length: 64m Height: 13m Surface Displacement: 1,700m³ Presure Hull Diameter: 6.3m Buoyancy Reserve: 10% U214 Performance Submerged Patrol Speed of Advance: 6kt Range: 12,000nm Mission Endurance: 12 weeks Constantly Submerged: Three weeks without snorkelling Mission Sprint Speed: 15kt to 20kt Maximum Dive Depth: 400m+

Scorpion (Scorpène) Subs (French One) Specifications
Crew: 32 Torpedoes / Missiles: Six 21in torpedo tubes for 18 torpedoes / missiles Dimensions Overall Length: 63.5m Draught: 5.4m

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Submerged Displacement: 1,590t Surface Displacement: 1,450t Pressure Hull Weldable and High-Tensile Steel: 80HLES, more than 700Mpa Performance Maximum Operating Depth: 350m Submerged Speed: Over 20 kt Range (at 8kt): 6,400nm Endurance: 50 days The comparison clearly indicates the superiority of German U-214 submarine. If the current government goes for inferior quality French submarines then it will indeed give weight to suspicion of many Pakistanis who see bribes as main factor behind any irrational decisions viz viz defence deals. Already the Pakistani senators have demanded in an incamera briefing from Pakistani Naval chief in the Senate. Whereas some eyebrows have also been raised over the fact that foreign secretary Salman Bashir in the current government of Zardari is the brother of Naval Chief, Noman Bashir and there are also some reports that PIA chairman is going to be named Pakistani envoy to France. Some political pundits see such an appointment an attempt to muster a deal for French submarines. On the other hand submarine acquisition project (SMAP) a group composed of Naval officers who have recommended U-214 submarines over other options after extensive study has been disbanded and the officers have been posted out at different stations. Though earlier the Germans have delayed the deal due to political situation of Pakistan but can kickoff cutting of hull for first submarine immediately after signing the deal. In such a situation going for something which does not fulfill the requirement of Pakistan Navy would be tantamount to putting the national defence at risk. There is no reason not to go for German submarines specially when Berlin even granted federal export credit guarantees worth nearly $1.4 billion for the purchase of the same.
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (Jun 2010) Vol.1 No. 1


4 In pursuit of Rationale for Type-214
Farzana Shah

With new developments regarding the purchase of new attack submarines for Pakistan Navy, Brasstacks analyses in depth the repercussions of recent news to buy Chinese submarines once again dumping the much needed German Type 214 submarines. There are reports that the government is eyeing acquisition of Chinese smaller submarines which once again tantamount to risking the national defense especially keeping in view Indian ambitions to create naval hegemony in Indian Ocean by outclassing Pakistani and Chinese navies. This paper is continuation of our earlier analysis of the same, in previous issue, wherein we have, in details, discussed the pros and cons of choosing French Submarines ignoring German bid. In this paper we give you a more meticulous rationale that why Pakistan Navy requires German submarine Type 214 instead of any Chinese or French. Keeping in view Pakistan’s maritime threat perceptions vis-à-vis existing deficiency in the number of submarine platforms, funds were allocated in Armed Forces Development Programme (AFDP-2019) for early purchase of new submarines to counter ever growing Indian Navy threat in Pakistan’s Area of Interest. Process of acquisition was thus accordingly started in 2004, when a Naval Service Requirement (NSR) based on Pakistan Navy’s threat perception and peculiar operating environment was prepared and subsequently approved at Naval Headquarters. German Type 214 (or commonly known as U-214) submarine was finally selected after a painstaking and detailed technical evaluation process involving all tiers of the Navy and approval at highest forums. Moreover, concurrence from top Government hierarchy was also obtained under the personal guidance of then Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Tahir NI(M). Type 214 submarine is the most modern, quieter, state of the art, air independent propulsion system (proven fuel cell technology) fitted platform; capable to undertake full spectrum of offensive missions in shallow as well as in deeper waters. This class of submarine guarantees, accomplishment of all present and future missions assigned to Pakistan Navy Submarine Force with full effectiveness and lethality. Type 214 submarines

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with its present day capabilities can also be very effectively pitched against Indians Akula II and Arihant (ATV) nuclear submarines. As of today, 22 Type 214 submarines (02 Portugal, 04 Greece, 10 South Korea, 06 Turkey) have been contracted. The above numbers also invalidate, the baseless allegations made to its technical aspects, especially by the Hellenic Navy which is presently seeking delivery of her 2nd Type 214 submarine from the German Yard. Interestingly, this submarine incorporates similar equipment (weapon & sensors) which are also installed on other German origin submarines operating worldwide e.g. Type 212A, Type 209s etc. Therefore, such a large family with common range of equipment is likely to provide sustained post induction spares supportability as well, an operational flexibility that Pakistan Navy lacked in Agosta 90B deal. The looming threats and operational compulsions necessitate Pakistan Navy to acquire this submarine as soon as possible. Reconsidering other options now; like smaller submarines or Chinese platforms, when already a substantial time has been spent on thorough evaluation of submarines earlier; would result only in distracting from the main cause. A grim situation, ending up for yet another time, i.e. opting for "a Platform not of Navy’s choice", and with many serious implications that would be faced in times to come. Lessons, if learnt from earlier project might serve the decision makers this time. The Chinese on the other hand, considerably lack in conventional submarine technology vis-à-vis their western counterparts. The country, itself maintains a fleet of Russian origin Kilo class submarines. Hence, Chinese built platforms cannot guarantee the quality and capability that Pakistan Navy is looking forward. India on the other hand is following an ambitious and a progressive submarine acquisition programme. India has planned to acquire 24 conventional submarines, 02 x AKULA II nuclear submarines from Russia by the year 2010, indigenous nuclear submarine platform ATV ARIHANT has already been launched (based on Akula I design). 1st batch of French made 06 x Scorpene submarines will be delivered to Indian Navy by 2016. In addition, request for 2nd batch of six more conventional submarines has also been floated by India and HDW (German yard) is also one of the contenders. Presently, the HDW has not shown any active interest for said Indian request but if Pakistan Navy’s project is not materialized, possibility of offering Type 214 submarines to India by Germany may be likely. Moreover, HDW has also declined (for the time being) Indian Navy’s

request for supply of plug-in Fuel Cell (AIP system) for Scorpene submarines, which may also get materialized in the aforesaid case. It is noteworthy to reveal that Indian Navy is also acquiring the same Heavy Weight Torpedo for their Scorpene submarines, which have successfully been inducted onboard Pakistan Navy submarines as well. This simply reflects the superior & proven quality of German weapons and systems.

Chinese Yuan Class Submarine

Given the number advantage and nuclear submarine technology available with Indian Navy, the only available option for Pakistan Navy is to maintain the qualitative conventional submarine edge over its arch rival that it had enjoyed so far. However, Pakistan Navy would find it difficult to deter the growing Indian Navy’s threat from its modern surface, air and sub-surface platforms, if Type 214 submarine is not acquired expeditiously. Time is of critical essence and any inauspicious decision would slip the submarine acquisition programme far beyond in schedule and below the required standards that might be impossible to cope up. Presently, official policy of German government is fairly supportive with respect to Pakistan’s defense needs and has already reiterated its assurance for supply of these submarines to Pakistan despite consistent heinous Indian propaganda and their hue & cry even in the German parliament. With Angela Merkel nominated as the German chancellor for the second time; all is set for finalizing the deal at the earliest. A strategic partnership with a German construction yard (HDW) at this time juncture would contribute a lot towards any of our future programme in terms of construction expertise, complex processes, project handling, spares supportability and most importantly the transfer of design capability. Therefore, going for German submarines will have huge benefits for Pakistan Navy in capability building beside top of the line modern conventional submarines in her inventory. But there exists a mysterious silence despite the fact that time, tide and technology favours us. It appears that a deliberate move is underway from the corrupt and unpatriotic echelons to prevent Pakistan Navy seeking its well deserved destiny. French kick backs and commissions would be difficult to resist but it has to be realized & understood that Submarine Force serves as the backbone for Pakistan Navy; and is the most potent and offensive arm that is well recognized and respected in the region. This prestigious silent service has always proven its mettle in all wars & conflicts. The known ferocity of our submarines has always kept Indians away from any kind of sea aggression. It is up to Pakistan Navy to take a stand this time, whether to uphold and preserve the National Honour or to compromise the National Security needs; just by remaining aloof and letting go such a valuable window of opportunity. So, Ignore it at Your Own Peril. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (Jul 2010) Vol.1 No. 2

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5 India–Israel Military Relations and Pakistan
Shahzad Masood Roomi

“The world Zionist movement should not be neglectful of the dangers of Pakistan to it. And Pakistan now should be its first target, for this ideological State is a threat to our existence. And Pakistan, the whole of it, hates the Jews and loves the Arabs. “This lover of the Arabs is more dangerous to us than the Arabs themselves. For that matter, it is most essential for the world Zionism that it should now take immediate steps against Pakistan. “Whereas the inhabitants of the Indian peninsula are Hindus whose hearts have been full of hatred towards Muslims, therefore, India is the most important base for us to work there from against Pakistan. “It is essential that we exploit this base and strike and crush Pakistanis, enemies of Jews and Zionism, by all disguised and secret plans.”
David Ben Gurion, the first Israeli Prime Minister. Traditionally, India is considered the only real enemy for Pakistani state but above mention statement of first Israeli premier and history of covert relations between two countries –even before 1992, the year India formally recognized Israel and established diplomatic relations –proves that Pakistan was perceived as a security threat despite the fact that Pakistan never showed any such intentions against Israel. Apart from that, this statement was an announcement of natural strategic alliance between Israel and India against Pakistan. Just like India, a nuclear armed Pakistan is also a nightmare for Israel as well due to its strong ideology and armed forces. Israeli threat perception of Pakistan stepped up further after the participation of Pakistani armed forces personnel in Arab-Israel wars of 1967 and 1973. Even today various Pakistani military schools are training military staffs belonging to Muslim countries located next to Israel. Pakistan is the only country in the Muslim world that has top of the line military training infrastructure and skilled military trainers making it a natural target for Israel’s overt and covert plans. As desired by David Ben Gurion, today, India is serving as covert base against Pakistan. Not only this but both are colluding against Pakistan in every possible way to make it fragile on economic, political and military axis.

Indian 4th generation war against Pakistan is a manifestation of this covert war and has Israeli collaboration and assistance. Covert military and diplomatic relations between the two predate to 1960s when Indian foreign spy agency RAW was formed on the footsteps of Israeli Mosssad though nature of these relations was covert during Cold War to avoid annoyance of Soviets. After dismemberment of Soviet Union in 1991, India and Israel established their diplomatic relations after India formally accepted Israeli state in 1992. These relations proved a marriage of convenience for both India and Israel. Israeli war industry found a huge market to sell weapons and allowed India to arm its forces with most lethal weapon systems against Pakistan, unbalancing the military equation between the two rivals. Israel is an active partner in Indian military buildup for her Cold Start war plans against Pakistan. Infiltrating the sensitive circles of enemy’s military and strategic infrastructure to make it implode from within is an old poly of Mossad. Today it is fully utilizing the cover of NATO forces in Afghanistan, UN and US personnel to find alternate ways to gain access into Pakistan’s security infrastructure. Pakistan, having 6th largest military machine of the world armed with nuclear weapons at her disposal, is too big a target to take on for Israel alone. This military strength of Pakistan helped both India and Israel to push their strategic alliance further.

India-Israel Military Relations
The nature of Indo-Israel military cooperation is secretive. India is one of the 39 countries with whom Israel

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has signed “secret co-operative agreements” in order to conceal the information about joint military projects. Much of these plans are related to denuclearization campaigns against Pakistan which has been put into top gear after 1998 in political affairs, diplomatic engagements and media debates by this Indo-Israel nexus around the globe. In conventional warfare domain, US and Israel are biggest supplier of advanced weapons to India which India is going to use against Pakistan in next conflict whereas Pakistan has been denied number of weapon systems even those who are purely defensive in nature. These sales began after 2003, when cunning Indians proposed the idea of forging an alliance among India, Israel and United States, against common threat of “Islamic terrorism and fundamentalism”. Below is a brief summary of previous and current arms deals between India and Israel. These facts and figures must be sufficed to showcase how Israel is arming India to execute her Cold Start military doctrine against a nuclear armed Pakistan. ♦ From 2001 to 2009, India purchased arms worth staggering 24$ billion from Israel and emerged as largest military hardware client of Israel. ♦ According to the figures released in 2008 by the Israeli Defense Ministry, India accounted for 50% of Israel’s military exports. ♦ Supply of 3 state of the art Phalcon AWACS air surveillance system t0 IAF. Deliveries have been started already since last year. System would allow Indian forces to look deep into Pakistani lands and skies. ♦ Indian air force’s SU-30MKI, fighter jets were upgraded by Israel Aviation Industry (IAI) boosting their electronic warfare and jamming abilities. ♦ Sale of long-range Green-Pine radars to India. These radars are capable of detecting any flying object from hundreds of kilometers. ♦ In 1996 India purchased 32 Searcher Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Electronic Support Measure sen-

sors and an Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation simulator system from Israel. ♦ In 1997, Israel offered its Barak-I vertically launched surface to air missile (SAM). India bought this missile system with the ability to destroying targets like cruise missiles. ♦ During 1999 Kargil crisis, Israel supplied India with laser guided missiles and munitions making it possible for Indian air force’s Mirages to destroy Pakistani bunkers in mountains. According to Jane’s

Defense Weekly, India was provided with Heron / Machatz 1 UAVs for high altitude surveillance, laserguided bomb and many other systems within 24 hours. ♦ In 2000, Israeli submarines reportedly conducted test launches of cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in the waters of the Indian Ocean, off the Sri Lanka coast. ♦ In June 2002, as part of “Operation Parakram,” after the attack on Indian Parliament, Israel supplied hardware through special planes after a visit by the Director-General of Israeli Defense ministry. ♦ India has signed a $30 million contract with Israel Military Industries (IMI) for 3,400 state of the

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art Tavor assault rifles and 200 Galil sniper rifles, as well as night vision and laser range finding and targeting equipment. India buys the counter-infiltration devices Israel uses on Golan Heights and in the Negev Desert. 4 battalions were sent to Israel for special training against insurgency in Kashmir Ghatak force. ♦ India launched Israeli Spy satellite with ability to draw real time 3D maps. ♦ Israeli advised India new methods of curbing Kashmiri struggle. Indian newspaper The Pioneer, wrote on 3 March 2001: "Fencing of the Indo-Pak border is not enough. To check Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism, top security experts of Israel have suggested that hi-tech gadgets ranging from an electronic barrier system of radars to thermal imaging devices should be immediately installed on India's sensitive international border in J&K and Punjab sectors.” ♦ Israeli involvement in Kashmir issue is not a secret anymore. Recent wave of Indian military human crimes in the valley is a culmination of adopting the military tactics used by Israel defense forces against Palestinian citizens. Emergence of a horrifying resemblance between the two forces’ counterinsurgency approach vividly explains how Indian army is getting its lesson from the maters of oppression. Result is a bloodbath in Kashmir with deaths of innocent children and women exactly replicating Gaza which came under attack by Israel in 2008. Indeed, India and Israel are natural allies as these are the only two “democratic” countries in the world that have killed over 1 million peoples in between 1947 and 2010 even without labeling any charges. Strategic blunders in foreign policy affairs by Islamabad and US military invasion into Afghanistan after 9/11 provided another base for combined Indo-Israel clandestine operations inside Pakistan’s FATA and NWFP regions from Afghanistan. Pakistan has been bleeding shoddily since last 10 years due to these furtive wars. Indians are willing partners in these dirty wars as they have succeeded in damaging Pakistan and its armed forces much more than they could in previous four wars since 1947. The excerpt, re-produced below, from Janes intelligence report, of 2001, vividly explains the connection between RAW and Mossad;


"The Indian spy agency RAW and the Israeli spy agency Mossad have created "four new agencies" to infiltrate Pakistan to target important religious and military personalities, journalists, judges, lawyers and bureaucrats. In addition, bombs would be exploded in trains, railway stations, bridges, bus stations, cinemas, hotels and mosques of rival Islamic sects to incite sectarianism. Pakistani intelligence agencies also said that RAW had constituted a plan to lure Pakistani men between 20 and 30 years of age to visit India so that they could be entrapped 'in cases of fake currency and subversion' and then be coerced to spy for India."
Not surprisingly, the pattern of terrorism and social unrest in Pakistan since 2001 is exactly the same. Pakistan army is the biggest encumbrance to Indian hegemonic designs in the region so weakening it through surrogate wars remain an obvious imperative. After engaging Pakistan army on Western theatre, exploiting economic pressures due to internal war is the next step in ultimate game against the army and state. Pakistan has spent billions of dollars while fighting against Indian and Israeli proxies in Northern areas. On the other hand, it requires billions more, every year, to maintain a credible balance of forces in the region visà-vis India. Strong lobbying by Indian-Israeli political and diplomatic engagements and media ops has painted Pakistan army as a collaborator against US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. Compelled by this propaganda, US administration is hesitating to give any economic waiver to already economically strained Pakistani military.

Consequently, whole modernization of Pakistan military is about to suffer further weakening country’s defenses. Odiously, this Indo-Israel nexus is the advantage of having influence over American media due to Israel’s penetration. Pakistan’s global outlook has been devastated by this influence haunting country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) as well. US insistence on giving India a bigger role in Afghanistan overlooking all its security implications on Pakistan is yet another expression of this media influence. In his article carried by Opinion Maker, in May 2010, titled ‘Framing Pakistan: How the pro-Israel media enables India’s surrogate warfare’ Maidhc Ó Cathail wrote:

“The media component of India’s alliance with Israel affords India a powerful weapon to wage surrogate warfare against Pakistan and enables both Tel Aviv and Delhi to pursue their common objective of destabilizing the nuclear-armed Muslim nation”.
Characters like Farid Zakria, Stephen Schwartz, Daniel Pipes and others have been tasked to create a monstrous image of Pakistan, as source of global terrorism and an unreliable and devious ally. Not very surprisingly this heinous media onslaught has met with unprecedented level of success due to complete diplomatic failure of Pakistan. Denying nuclear capability to any Muslim country is foremost strategic goal of Israel. Attacking preemptively deep into enemy territories and destroying their under-construction nuclear installations is an old Israeli military strategy. Israel destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981. In 2007 Syrian secret nuclear installation met with same fate due to devastating attack by Israeli Air Force. Pakistani nuclear installations are constant targets of Israel and this is one point where US is also onboard fully in the sinister drive of Indo-Israel covert nexus. Rendering Pakistan into a non-nuclear state is necessary in order to fulfill strategic goals of US as well. According to intelligence circles of Pakistan, Israel and India tried at least twice to destroy Pakistan’s

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nuclear park at Kahuta; in 1984 and in 1998 just before Pakistan declared itself as N-Capable country. But after failure of previous attempts to destroy Pakistan’s nuclear capability, India, Israel and US trio cultivated covert plans, using 4th generation asymmetric warfare, to meet their ends. A detailed evaluation of this war had been carried out in June 2010 and October 2010 issues of Brasstacks Monthly Security Review. A brief tactical excerpt of the 4th generation war against Pakistan is given below; ♦ Insurgencies in North and North Western provinces. These are supported by Indian RAW from


Afghanistan. TTP in FATA and BLA in Baluchistan are creating mayhem and chaos by unleashing terrorism and anarchy. ♦ An extreme sense of insecurity is prevailing in masses due to target killings, suicide bombings, sectarian violence and ethno-linguistic sadism in all major cities. Increasing frequency of these incidents depicts a very bleak picture of national security profile. ♦ This frenzied situation presented foreign secret services like CIA, MI6 and RAW and private mercenaries like Blackwater (Xe Worldwide) with an opportunity to establish their independent footprints in Pakistan to carry out kidnappings, assassinations and sabotage operations as well as eavesdropping and spying. The entire Drone operations and subsequent assassinations are being conducted by CIA and their mercenary contractors with impunity. ♦ Economic intimidation of Pakistan and to destroy Pakistan's food supply chain, through water aggression is relatively new but most ruthless move in this hushed war by India. Violating Indus Water

Treaty, India built multiple dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir region. ♦ Media ops and propaganda warfare have been launched using disinformation, twisted analysis and planted intelligence reports about Pakistan, its nuclear weapons and its possible extinction in the near future. ♦ Corrupt and incompetent government in Islamabad accelerated economic meltdown of Pakistan through staggering corruption. National financial policies and institutes have been handed over to IMF and World Bank and by taking loans on compromisingly unforgiving conditions. ♦ On diplomatic plain, worldwide cloak-and-dagger Israeli spy network is working in semblance with Indian diplomatic presence in the countries who have not established any diplomatic relations with Israel.

Despite hostile intentions of Israel and India, a campaign with renewed vengeance against Pakistan and its nuclear assets began after 9/11 when Islamabad failed to demonstrate any sense of sovereignty while allying itself in US war on terror. This move provided necessary foothold to RAW-Mossad nexus against Pakistan. Pakistan has paid heavily for that mistake. It is time to fix this historical error. In a fascinating development in late October, When a US delegate confronted a Chinese diplomat about Beijing's uncompromising support for Pakistan in military and nuclear domains, the Chinese responded with a heavily-loaded remark: "Pakistan is our Israel". Remarks of Chinese diplomat may sound sarcastic to Americans but undoubtedly this is strongest expression of Chinese aspiration of having a long term strategic partnership with Pakistan. For Pakistan, this is ideal time to get out of US camp where Israeli and Indian lobbies are dominating and dictating the terms. A uni-polar world is coming to an end with the emergence of China and now Pakistan will have to make an ultimate decision about its strategic partnership in 21st century. Intimidation by US on political and diplomatic fronts, sacrifices of core strategic interests made to appease US and grand failure of this appeasement policy must serve as helping tools for Islamabad while weighing its options for future strategic partnership.
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (Nov 2010) Vol.1 No. 6


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6 Noose around Pakistani Nukes!
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) and Implications for Pakistan’s Nuclear Program
Shahzad Masood Roomi

Pakistan had been facing an overwhelming disparity vis-à-vis India in conventional warfare since her creation till the time she joined the elite club of nuclear capable nations in May 1998. Since then this nuclear deterrence not only provided Pakistan with ultimate military deterrence but also established a strategic stability in South East Asia. It was nuclear deterrence of Pakistan which prevented a full blown war between the two states in 1999(Kargil) and 2002(Operation Parakaram) and 2008 (Post 26/11). There is an intrinsic relation between military parity and regional and global stability. History of warfare in post World War II era proves that whenever there was parity between conflicting nations stability also prevailed between them on military axis. The US and USSR never collided with each other in any military battlefield during Cold War era despite the fact that both of these were rambling on every other front in a cut-throat covert war. With growing internal and external threats and in backdrop of proven usability of nuclear deterrence, many countries in the world are desperately trying to get into the elite nuclear club. Nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea are clearest manifestation of this fact. But this increasing desire of getting WMDs for creating a nuclear deterrence threatened the global hegemony of the US. To counter this trend of getting nukes for military usage, the US began a global nuclear disarmament campaign under the façade of eliminating all kinds of WMDs (nuclear, biological and chemical) from the world. But all this nuclear disarmament drive has been a failure since the start due to the duplicity in approach of the global nuclear group. Every global power wants others to lower their nuclear stockpile but is not ready to discuss the same about its own. War on terror, Obama’s Af-Pak and recent US raid into Pakistan have aggravated the perceived threats to Pakistan particularly to its nuclear program which has been under constant criticism and suspicions from the Western and Zionist powers since the last decade. There have been very systematic and deliberate campaigns to undermine Pakistan’s nuclear capability in the form of various disarmament and control treaties. Before looking into these threats in more details, let’s see what lies behind the rhetoric of nuclear disarmament. Nuclear Duplicity

There is a new nuclear order emerging in the world dominated and dictated by the western powers with India and possibly Israel as the new members while no other country, especially a Muslim one, would be allowed to acquire the nuclear capability. For this Zionist led new global nuclear order, Pakistan remains the biggest threat and needs to be fixed! Pakistan has been put under every kind of pressure and intimidation on her nuclear program. Survival of Pakistan’s nuclear program and its constant expansion is nothing but a miracle. But expansion and growth of this program is now clearly being seen as clear and present danger by the Americans, Israelis and the Indians turning them even more hostile towards Pakistan. A massive global psy-ops have already been launched to create a global case against Pakistan’s nuclear and missile capabilities. US non-proliferation drive is a three step strategy to prevent the rise of any nuclear power in the world other than the five permanent members of nuclear club plus India. According to the US policy these steps are: 1. Putting a ban on production of fissile material 2. Securing the existing stockpile of fissile material 3. Destroy/Dismantling the fissile material production facilities Under this policy, Washington attached many strings in revised draft of Kerry Luger aid bill as well. Pakistan army had to release a press statement showing concerns over the strings attached to the bill vis-à-vis Pakistan’s nuclear program and its security. In the 90’s, Americans did carry out sting operations in Russia as well to secure their nuclear stockpile after dismemberment of the former Soviet Empire. In the grand scheme of denuclearization under the garb of nuclear disarmament, first step will be achieved by manufacturing the global consent about the dangers of producing fissile material through various international treaties. This will be done through various discriminatory laws and treaties. FMCT is the latest and the clearest manifestation in this respect where Pakistan is being pressurized but India has been given assurance by Obama and three other major nuclear powers that Delhi would be included in four major nuclear control regimes. In simplistic terms, Indian nuclear program has been legitimized while Pakistani program is presented as dangerous, illicit and must be rolled back. Same is the case with Israeli nuclear program which is immune to any kind of international disarmament treaty. Israel destroyed Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors when they were far from being operational. Any nuclear capable neighbor is a security nightmare for the Zionist state. As the theatre of operations for the US expands into the Greater Middle East, Pakistan is also being seen as a direct threat to the Zionist Israeli state. On the other hand, Israel’s own nuclear program has been built through the US help which is a clear violation of the non-proliferation laws. And later on, Western nations supplied Israel with the state of the art delivery platforms as well like nuclear capable submarine. Israel has an expansionist agenda which is not so secretive and that makes its covert nuclear program even more sinister. But for the western powers, just like India, Israel’s nuclear program also does not qualify as illicit or dangerous. That only leaves Pakistani and Iranian nuclear programs on the target list, hence the global media psy-ops and diplomatic war to attack and dismantle nuclear programs of both Muslim countries.

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What is FMCT?
Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) talks about putting a bar on production of fissile material for military usage. As further talks on Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) have been halted by Pakistan in Conference on Disarmament (CD) so there is no final document of the treaty which has been agreed by all the countries. There are two incarnations of this treaty and both are precarious for Pakistan’s strategic interests.

According to one interpretation, after FMCT gets ratified, all signatories would cease the production of any further fissile material for military usage while other interpretation encompasses existing stock of fissile material as well. As the negotiations have been stopped by Pakistan the real and actual scope of the treaty is not clear regarding the production of fissile material and existing stock. In both cases, Pakistan cannot risk signing any such treaty which would undermine its strategic capabilities. Pakistan has an asymmetric conventional military balance (imbalance) with India but its nuclear program is well established and highly advanced, which restores the balance in Pakistan’s favor against India. Not only the strategic weapons are operational but their delivery systems are also in place and Pakistan is expanding its strategic capabilities in both warheads as well as launch platform simultaneously. Now Pakistan has almost reached the edges of having intercontinental ballistic missiles and has also joined the elite club to countries having battlefield tactical nuclear warheads. Real motives behind FMCT and other nuclear disarmament treaties have nothing to do with their stated objectives rather these treaties are tools for the US to implement its hegemonic agenda in the region in pursuit of her strategic goals. Three most immediate goals of FMCT are 1. Geopolitically, FMCT is to prevent any Muslim state from getting Nuclear weapon capability. As re

Pakistani nukes –the real target of FMCT

drawing the entire Middle East is the core of US strategy in the region, this prevention is mandatory from US point of view. This will also serve the purpose of keeping Israeli neighbors away from the nuclear capability to ensure the safety of Israel. 2. Strategically, this treaty is specifically targeted at Pakistan. After the successful test of Multi-tube ballistic missile Nasr it has become the top most priority of the global establishment to tighten the noose around Pakistani nukes. This strategic missile test suggests that Pakistan does possess tactical nuclear weapons which are going to be the last nail in the coffin of Indian Cold Start doctrine. 3. Economically, Rectifying FMCT would allow US military industrial complex (MIC) to sell more and more conventional weapons. US economy needs a massive boost and that too in short period of time. 4. Regionally, India holds central position in the US foreign policy for the 21st century in the region. But India cannot get a regional role as per the US desires until Pakistan remains a nuclear armed state. FMCT would ensure the rollback of Pakistani nuclear program. Denuclearization of Pakistan is the topmost priority in the strategic agenda of the US. Pakistani nuclear program is the final obstacle to the US grand strategic objectives in greater Middle East and Eurasia. Recently, after OBL episode, safety of Pakistan’s nuclear program has taken driving seat in international propaganda and disinformation warfare against Pakistan. Now this campaign has entered in new gear and reports are be-

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ing leaked about possible incursion of US Special Forces into Pakistan to “secure” Pakistani nuclear facilities if required. All this media ops against Pakistani nuclear program suggest a planned physical attempt either by the US or an attack by their proxies TTP to justify a global coalition against Pakistani nuclear weapons, missiles and program. If Pakistan signs this treaty or allows any international coalition to “secure” its nuclear program or weapons, Pakistan would cause irrecoverable damage to its defense capability and strategic stability in the region. Pakistan’s standing would be reduced to a subservient client country in the region guarding Indian and the US interests alone. ♦ Pakistan cannot counter aggressive Indian and Israeli nuclear weaponization drive under FMCT as it would limit the production of fissile material including Plutonium and weapon grade Uranium. ♦ To ensure second strike capability, it is essential for Pakistan to have adequate number of nuclear warhead emplaced. Multiple launch platforms minimize the threat of whole strike capability being compromised. By signing FMCT Pakistan would compromise this option as well. ♦ In one of its two possible incarnation, FMCT would simply eliminate Pakistan’s strategic deterrence altogether. Eliminating existing stockpile remains the gravest concern.

FMT: Another Fallacy!!
India is using her political clout in the world capitals to secure her interests including blocking the supply of major hi-tech weapon systems to Pakistan. Indian diplomatic rapidity has played a role in preventing European

and the US arms supplies to Pakistan. On the other hand, India is getting all the latest and hi-tech weapon systems from all around the world including the latest multirole fighter jets, nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers! This is critically disturbing the strategic stability in the region further. In this backdrop, Pakistan is only left with one credible deterrence option which its nuclear arsenal and strategic assets provide. But right now, Pakistan’s stance on FMCT is defiant but not decisive. Pakistan along with G-21 countries has proposed Fissile Material Treaty (FMT) instead of FMCT. The concept of FMT revolves around the idea of eliminating the all existing fissile material. This concept is not only impractical but could also disturb strategic balance in the region completely in Indian favor! There is not much support for this idea either because no one from permanent nuclear states and India is going to dismantle their fissile material installations intended for military use. And for Pakistan, it is more disturbing as India has been already included in the group of permanent nuclear club (P5) through 123-Agreement signed in 2005. This agreement ensures supply of nuclear technology and fuel to India and gives her a unique exemption from all control regimes. Owing its rivalry against Pakistan this agreement is extremely disturbing. In December 2010, Pakistan National Command Authority (NCA) expressed concern over policies and trends of selectivity and discrimination relating to strategic control regimes, “Pakistan will never accept discriminatory treatment and that it rejects any effort to undermine its strategic deterrence. Pakistan will not be a party to any approach that is prejudicial to its legitimate national security interests.”

Final Thoughts
A ruthless and sinister propaganda and disinformation campaign has been launched to present Pakistan as a country which does not have adequate security for her strategic assets. Indians have joined the massive disinformation war against Pakistan as well. The US has upped the ante and pressure is mounting on Pakistan to back off from its principled stance about FMCT so that the treaty can be imposed to compromise Pakistan’s strategic defenses. Pakistan has no option here but to make it clear that Pakistan’s nuclear program is the nucleus of her overall defense strategy. A strong diplomatic signal must be sent to the rest of the world carrying an unambiguous message that Pakistan’s nukes are here to stay and world will have to live with that! **************************
Note: This article was originally published in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (May 2011) Vol.1 No. 12

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7 Siachen

The Geopolitics and Strategy in Frozen Battlefield
Shahzad Masood Roomi

Aftermath of Gyari Tragedy
The tragic incident of 7th April avalanche that hit the battalion HQ of 6NLI battalion of Pakistan Army in Gyari sector of Siachen trapping 139 Pakistani troops and civilians has traumatized the entire nation. Pakistan Army is desperately trying to reach the trapped persons under the 80 feet high and one square kilometer wide pile of rubble, rock, snow and ice in a rescue operation in an unforgiving weather and constant snow falling at a height of 14000 feet from sea level. The incident was the worst catastrophe since 1984 when India illegally occupied Siachen glacier and Saltoro ridge to its southwest. After this dreadful tragedy, a very shocking and sordid trend emerged in certain media circles within Pakistan, like SAFMA, demanding withdrawal of forces from Siachen. On 9th April 2012, two days after the awful tragedy, SAFMA head Imtiaz Alam stated,

“Why should we be going for an agreement? We should just withdraw. If we do that, Indian domestic pressure will also result in a withdrawal there. They will say it is madness to continue.” 1
Without giving proper knowledge of background of the incident and history of conflict on world’s highest battlefield these self-claimed peace preachers began to tell the Pakistanis that it is time to bring our boys home unilaterally because Siachen glacier is melting due to presence of forces there and this deployment of force is futile. Apart from the compromised media elements, the political leadership also failed to show solidarity with the defenders of Pakistan immediately after the incident. The entire nation is on the brink of complete internal chaos and Pakistan Army has been caught in a ruthless and cut-throat battle against the religious and secular terrorists and separatists in ongoing massive 4GW and needs the backing and support of every nook and corner of the country. But unfortunately, the regime in Islamabad remained busy in its survival exercise in Supreme Court isolating itself from every important national security and governance issue like the awful

For years, Indians have demanded that Pakistan accept the current deployment of forces along the ridgeline (known as Actual Ground Position Line or AGPL) of Saltoro range as permanent border which means accepting the illegal occupation of the glacier by the Indian Army. In this backdrop, the proposal of withdrawing unilaterally is not only completely delusional but is impossible to act upon due to the strategic importance of the region and Indian expansionist designs which turned this glacier into the battlefield. A detailed historical and strategic analysis of Indian policymaking regarding this subtle and critical issue is necessary to understand that why Pakistan cannot withdraw from the glacier in unilateral fashion.

Pakistan Army patrolling party

There is number of reasons, from financial to environmental, for both the countries to withdraw from this front, even in the presence of core issue of Kashmir. 1989 agreement between both the sides demands the relocation of forces to the positions away from the glacier but not unilaterally. So, anyone who is advising this as solution is either too naïve to understand the gravity of the situation or is deliberately part of something more sinister against Pakistan and its core strategic interests.

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tragedy at Gyari sector. President of Pakistan failed to cancel or even postpone his private trip to India, the country which had put Pakistani troops in this treacherous battlefield in the first place. Parliament is keen to investigate the incident rather than doing anything for the families of heroes of Pakistan Army who gave the ultimate sacrifice. But most disgusting remarks came from the leader of Pakistan’s second biggest political party PML(N) and former PM Nawaz Sharif who, just like SAFMA, asked Pakistan army to withdraw from the battlefront unilaterally as the solution while the enemy has already 1000 square miles (2600 square kilometer) of Pakistani territory under the occupation of enemy who has plans to capture more in order to complete the strategic goal of cutting off Pakistan from China.

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History of conflict
Ostensibly, the Siachen crisis, just like Kashmir, is the result of uncompleted border demarcation between the two nations but expansionist designs of India are the core reason behind this problem. This is why India is reluctant to implement the 1989 agreement. Historically, Siachen belongs to Pakistan; all of it. All the international climbing and mountaineering expedition teams to climb K2 and other mountains, always got their NoCs from the Pakistani governments. After the initial expedition of Imperial College London in 1957, Austrian and German teams came to Pakistan in 1961, 1962, 1976 and 1978 all got permission from Islamabad to visit the area. Overall, there were 16 major expeditions which went to Siachen and beyond from 1974 to 1981. 11 of these were from Japan, three from Austria, and one each from Britain and the United States. Being international expeditions, these were known to the entire world including India. This clearly proves that this area belongs to Pakistan and Indian military presence in the area is no more than an act of war and overt aggression which by default legitimates retaliatory actions from Pakistan.

K-2 , A diamond of ice - An ultimate challenge for world mountaineers

Apart from this, Siachen has been shown as part of Pakistan in many of international world atlases like UN Defense Mapping Agency (DMA), Historical Atlas of South Asia by Chicago University, Britannica Atlas, National Geographic Society of World Atlas and Times World Atlas. The root of Pakistani claim, apart from afore mentioned published maps by international bodies, stems from the Karachi Agreement, signed under UN auspices, in 1949 which states that from the last demarcated point, Khor (Grid Reference NJ9842), the line would run ‘thence North to the glaciers’ 2 and this is what all international publishers (including Indian) did. They extended the line towards North which connects NJ9842 to Karakoram Pass. Sir Oven Dixon was appointed as first UN observer over Kashmir between Pakistan and India. He mentioned Siachen as part of Pakistan’s Northern Areas (current Gilgat-Batistan) and it was further endorsed by the

Indian writer P.L. Lakhanpal in his book “Essential Documents and Notes on the Kashmir Dispute”. Indian defense analyst Ravi Rikhye in his work “The Fourth round: Indo-Pak war” included many maps of LoC and according to these maps Siachen is Pakistani territory. Lt. Gen K.P. Candeth, retired from Indian army in 1984, he wrote his book “The Western Front: Indo Pakistan war 1971”. The maps included in his book also showed NJ-9842 and Siachen as part of Pakistan. The Indian claim is that the line should follow the ridgeline of the Saltoro Range which actually runs in a North Westerly direction instead of going to North as stated in 1949 Karachi Agreement. Indians claimed that this is universally applicable watershed principle for settling border disputes. But this should have been mentioned in the agreement between the two parties which was not there in Karachi agreement or even in the 1989 agreement hence Pakistan has legitimate claim over the Siachen glacier and Saltoro Range. Now, looking at the map of the LoC and Siachen and extending the line towards North, as stated in the 1949 agreement, clearly suggests that not only the glacier but also the two heighest passes (Sia La, Bilafond La) belongs to Pakistan. The battle zone comprised an inverted triangle resting on NJ 9842 with Indira Col and the Karakoram pass as the other two extremities.

The Conflict Zone

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Indian Occupation of Siachen
There is a general perception that it was April 1984 when Indians launched the Operation Megdhoot and captured three important passes in impassable Saltoro range at height of more than 18,000 feet from sea level. But in reality Indian Army began planning, way back in 1978, to capture the passes connecting Siachen glacier to Pakistan’s Gilgal-Baltistan areas and capture the KKH to sever Pakistan’s road links to China. Lt. Gen. M. L. Chibber, under whose command Operation Meghdoot was launched, confessed in his article “Siachen – An Untold Story. A personal account” published in Indian Defense Weekly Jan 1990 that it was 1978 when Indian army’s Western Command started planning of this operation. In his own words, general was worried that US tourism department map showed Siachen as part of Pakistan.


“In 1978, when I was DMO, we got information about a foreign expedition from the Pakistan side visiting the Siachen Glacier. The Line of Control terminates at NJ9842. The Glaciers are not demarcated. We sent a patrol next year and it was confirmed that Japanese expeditions has visited the Siachen Glacier. So routine patrolling started. This should give the readers a real background of what happened in 198283. It will show that India did not act unilaterally.” 3

Korakaram Highway – the ultimate Indian Army objective

Here the former commander of Northern Command of Indian Army didn’t bother to mention the reasons that why Indian Army never raised the issue with Pakistani Army or government regarding the mountaineering expeditions going to Siachen from Pakistani side prior to 1984? As explained earlier that such mountain-

eering expeditions had been going to the region since late 1950’s and foreign teams were reaching Pakistan on international visas and there were no signs of any kind of discomfort from Indian side. This patent fact torpedoes the entire rationale of illegal Indian occupation but it must not be surprising for Pakistanis as nothing else can be expected from the Indian Army and policymakers who has been trained with Chankiya’s Earth-Shaster as primer strategic military and political guide. In another account Gen. Chibber gave the following details of Indian rationale for occupying the Siachen.

“The problem precipitated on 21st August 1983 when a protest note from Northern Sector Commander of Pakistan was handed over to his counterpart in Kargil stating that Line of Control joins with the Karakoram Pass, also that all the area West of this extended line belongs to Pakistan. When Army Headquarters saw this and also got information that Pakistan troops had occupied Bilafond Pass, they ordered Northern Command to prevent the occupation of the Glacier area by Pakistan during the mountaineering season in 1984.” 4
Again, he didn’t bother to tell why the protest from Pakistani side was launched in the first place? Reality is that a protest was launched when a SSG Company, during a routine reconnaissance mission, discovered the presence of a camp of Ladakh Scouts on Bilafonda La pass, in 1983. This exposes the lies of former chief of Indian Army’s Northern Command that Pakistan army occupied the pass. Had Pakistan Army captured the pass in 1983, as claimed by LM Chibber, Indians would have never been able to put their feet on the glacier. Col. Narendra Kumar “bull” is credited by India for the “historic victory” over Saltoro ridgeline in Operation Maghdoot during April 1984. Actually he was the one who initiated the war on the glacier and turned it into the world’s highest battlefield. The accounts of his patrols, since 1978 to 1983, are more revealing about Indian aggression and illegal occupation.

“We found labels from tin cans and cigarette packs with Pakistani names, German and Japanese equipment. It was this that convinced the government of India that Pakistan was going where it should not have been.” 5
No such evidence was ever shown to anybody in the world. What Kumar found on the glacier was normal garbage stuff which any mountaineering team would leave behind. But more interestingly, he never found a human on the Siachen which actually is enough to destroy the entire Indian propaganda that it was Pakistan Army who militarized the glacier.

“There wasn’t a soul there. There was so much to climb—so many uncharted high peaks! And those pinnacles—rock pinnacles going straight up! And small glacial streams—so blue and so cold! The view from Sia Kangri looking down on the Siachen was such a beautiful sight. Just like a great white snake… going, going, going. I have never seen anything so white and so wide.” 6
Actually, this entire climbing of the glacier was the first step to capture the entire region where many other important glaciers are also located and doing so would have enabled India to cut Pakistan’s access to China through KKH. Indians have cut Pakistani access to Karakoram Pass, already, by occupying Siachen. This is the core strategic reason why Indian does not want to leave the area despite suffering a casualty every second

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day due to harsh weather conditions and unforgiving terrain. Furthermore, it remains an interesting “coincident” in the history that during 1981-82 Indian sent teams to Antarctica to study the arctic weather there. Interestingly, other than Siachen glacier there is no arctic region controlled and occupied by India but still Prime Minister Indira Gandhi took a personal interest in the expedition, calling it the ''fulfillment of a lifelong dream.'' 7

Indira Gandhi with Lt. Gen LM Chibber and Indian Air Chief in Laddakh , 1983

Pakistani response
Pakistan Army and ISI were busy in thwarting Soviet onslaught on Afghanistan in order to secure the Western front, so Indian aggression on Siachen remained unnoticed for first three to four year. It was only in 1982 When Pakistan Army realized that Indians are not only moving in but are also consolidating their military infrastructure on the glacier in order to move further towards North and Northwest in order to cut KKH and entire GB. Pakistan sent first military team on a reconnaissance mission in the area in 1983. General (retired) Jahandad Khan, of Pakistan Army, has noted, in his accounts, about the first visit by SSG to the Bilafond La pass in 1983, 5 years after Indian Army Col. Kumar began his illegal patrols in the Pakistani areas to survey the area for later assault by Indian Army brigade in 1984.

“When the SSG company got across Bilafond Pass (in 1983), the helicopter pilot reported an Indian location one thousand yards ahead in the Siachen Area. After seeing our helicopter, the Indian troops, comprising Ladakh Scouts, left their location in a great hurry abandoning all their rations and tentage. The SSG Company stayed in this area for ten days but was ordered to withdraw in the first week of September 1983 as it had started snowing and the company did not have equipment for survival in the winter season under thirty to forty feet of snow, which is the normal snow range.”
Former chairman of PoF Wah Lt. Gen (retired) Abdul Qayyum was one of the members of this trip as well. He recalls his visit to the area in 1983 in following words. Siachen 88

“When in early 1980, then DMO Brigadier (promoted to General later) Ghulam M Malik, Commander SSG Brig. T.M. Shaheed and me landed on Siachen glacier via helicopter we witnessed an abandoned camp of Ladakh Scouts. We found an official paper which confirmed that the officer of Ladakh scouts was a major of Indian Army. He brought a mountaineer expedition with him but after our arrival they left the camp.” 8
Indians claim that Operation Maghdoot was pre-empted to prevent the planned Pakistani occupation of the area but events transpired after 1984 further exposed that Indian designs were not limited to Siachen glacier but their real aim was (and still remains) to cut Pakistan’s road link to China through Khunjrab pass in Karakoram Range. General (retired) Jahandad Khan has accounted that the real intelligence received by Pakistan Army was about Indian plans to capture the Baltoro ridgeline and glacier (second largest after Siachen with 64 KM length) occupying the region where K2 and other high KaraKoram peaks are located.

The frozen battlefield

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This was also endorsed by the massive Indian attack, in 1989, to capture Chumik glacier to push Pakistani troops towards further Southwest. Due to timely response and unthinkable bravery of Captain Naveed (later promoted to Major) and sheer professionalism of Pakistan army aviation, Indian plans were thwarted and Pakistan Army secured the Chumik peak and established Naveed Post there. Later both the parties agreed to demilitarize the peak. Pakistan army did make some daring attempts to dislodge the Indian occupying forces from the Bilafond La pass and the glacier. Attacks of 1987 and 1995 were significant. But Saltoro Range has proved to be the biggest challenge as this steep wall of ice, at some point, has 90 degree slop to climb for Pakistan Army before they could engage Indian forces entrenched on the peak tops. Harsh weather conditions also proved murderous for the advancing parties resultantly no significant change in position of both the armies occurred.

Pakistan Army Jawans – Carrying artillery shells in their backpacks, 1987

The Conflict - Present scenario
The Indian Army controls a few of the top-most heights, holding on to the tactical advantage of high ground, however with the Pakistani forces in control of Baltoro and other glaciers and valleys in immediate West to Saltoro ridgeline, Indian access to K2 and other surrounding peaks has been blocked effectively and mountaineering expeditions to these peaks continue to go through with the approval of the Government of Pakistan. The situation is as such that Pakistanis cannot get up to the glacier, while the Indians cannot come down. Presently India holds entire 75 KM of Siachen glacier and commands two of the three passes including the highest motorable pass – Khardungla Pass. Pakistan controls Gyong La pass that overlooks the Shyok and Nubra river Valley and India`s access to Leh district. Logistically, Pakistan Army holds the advantage since its road-head is only 20 KM away from the farthest post while Siachen is a logistical nightmare for the Indian troops who are stationed about 80 km away from the road-head and their supplies have to be maintained entirely by air, which is not only cost prohibitive but also risky because of the adverse weather conditions most of the times. 9

Pakistan Artillery in action – Making the lives of Indians more miserable!

Siachen – Logistical nightmare of Indian Army

Apart from each other and an impassable terrain, snow-bound disease and weather conditions are the worst enemies for both the armies in this region. HAPE (High-Altitude Pulmonary Edema) and HACE (High-Altitude Cerebral Edema) have been proved ultimate killers above 18,000 feet. HAPE is a swift assassin. One can be dead within matter of hours suffering from HAPE which is an accumulation of fluid in the lungs. HACE doesn’t kill immediately but anyone suffering from it experience severe swelling, headaches, hallucinations, and dementia due to leaks of fluid from oxygen-starved blood vessels in the brain, Untreated, HACE can kill a man within 24 hours. Needless to say, these high altitude assassins are excruciatingly painful. 10

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Saltoro Range – Killer heights

Strategic Dynamics!
Can Pakistan risk this strategic region for the sake of peace appeals by some Indian apologists in Pakistan? This is the core question and the only answer to that question is ‘Never!’ Understanding the multipronged Indian strategy towards Pakistan is essential in order to comprehend the above answer. Right now, India is waging a covert war within Pakistan on following axis. 1. Supporting TTP and BLA, from Afghanistan, in order to thin-out Pakistan Army in an endless war against terrorism. 2. Economic intimidation of Pakistan and to destroy Pakistan's food supply chain, through water aggression is relatively new but most ruthless move in this hushed war by India. 3. Backing and supporting the sub-nationalists and the separatist elements in Baluchsitan and Sindh. 4. Ideological subversion and information warfare. Psy-ops to spread despondency and provincial disharmony. 5. Military buildup across the Eastern border under the Pakistan specific Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). 6. Coercive diplomacy and lobbying in Washington to destroy Kashmiris struggle for the self-determination by linking it to global terrorism. 7. Trade liberalization in the presence of core issues like Kashmir. Extending economic and trade outreach to Afghanistan and Central Asia using Pakistani road links.

8. Forcing Pakistan to accept a back channel settlement of Kashmir issue which will be amenable to Indian interests only and would destroy the Pakistani case in UN. This Indian strategy has been wreaking havoc in Pakistan since the beginning of war on terror. Siachen issue must be analyzed in this bigger and broader strategic context to completely comprehend the grand Indian designs to isolate and then decapitate Pakistan to become regional and then global player after competing with China. Siachen 92
Pakistan Army Jawans at Saltoro ridge

The perception that no one cares about the Siachen and other glaciers in the region is just a dangerous misjudgment. In reality this region holds strategic importance not only for India and Pakistan but for China as well. Retired Air-Vice Marshal, Shahzad Chudhary, has following to say in this regard.

“It remains the impassability of the terrain which has kept India from moving down the slopes in a grand encirclement manoeuvre, at least in the theoretical sense, along the Northern Areas of Pakistan to envelop the Pakistani controlled territories of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. That explains the strategic potential, though the force and the terrain needed to execute this would be almost impossible in quantum, capacity and capability with a terribly long logistic chain. Who says that isn’t strategically significant for a nation whose strategic vision is still evolving? Next, by sitting across at the Karakoram if the triangle is ceded to India – as she desires by recognis-

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ing and recording her current position along the AGPL – she sits on the door between China and Pakistan and also on the western gate to Tibet. Keep in mind that China has linked its Western Sinkiang Province to Tibet through a network of highways and planned railroads that will sit just across the Indian position on the Karakoram. It doesn’t get more strategic than that for all sides. 11
Pakistan must not make the same mistake that it made on Kashmir in 2004 when Musharraf regime chose unilateral ceasefire on LoC. This historical strategic blunder created two major problems for Pakistan. One of them is clearly existential in nature. First, Indians built a fence along the LoC bluntly violating the UN resolutions on Kashmir. Secondly, this allows Indians to put her anti-Pakistan hydrological war into top gear. Within two to three years, India would acquire the capability to block the Pakistani waters of 3 Western rivers which belong to Pakistan according to 1960 Indus Water treaty. Likewise, it must be clear that once Pakistan Army begins moving down from the glacier, Indian army will start its Northwest march which Pakistan army has been blocking since 1984. India has spent billions of dollars on this battlefield and will never let her investment go in vein especially when the policymakers in Delhi are desperate to cut Pak-China road link via KKH. Infrastructure buildup by the Indians in the region is also a clear indicator about the Indian strategic thinking over this battlefield. Indians are building strategic tunnel and road networks to connect the Ladakh to other portions of the country. Roads in this area exist but current renovation and tunnel buildup is purely for military purposes. One such project is 9 KM long Rohtang Tunnel that will ensure all weather road connectivity between the Ladakh’s capital Leh to Manali in Himachal Pradesh. It will be built at a height of 3,000-3,100 meters and one of the highest in the world. The tunnel is important to maintain supply lines to the forward posts in Ladakh and Siachen Glacier. 12 Apart from that, Indian military preparedness regarding Siachen glacier clearly indicates that there is absolutely no sign from the Indian side to withdraw from world’s highest battlefield and relocate them according to the 1989 agreement. Indian Army is taking deliveries of Dhruv helicopter which has specifically designed for icy regions. Dhruv passed these test trials in 200713 and is now part of Indian Army aviation. Indian Army upgraded Cheeta helicopters (under new name Cheetal) with more powerful engines back in 2006 to be used, by 114 Helicopter Unit, for logistical deliveries on Siachen glacier and Saltoro range peaks. According to Indian strategic analyst Dr Subhash Kapila, Siachen and Saltoro ridge are important for India due to following factors. ♦ Strategic high ground and terrain domination over Pakistan's Northern Areas and Shaksgam valley China. ♦ It blocks routes of ingress to the vital Ladakh sector, and provides a 'strategic wedge' to prevent a further Pakistan-China geographical link-up. ♦ It acts as a 'strategic pressure point' against Pakistan's military adventurism in the Kargil sector. ♦ Indira-Col, the northern most part of Siachen, directly overlooks Chinese occupied territory that


was illegally ceded by Pakistan to China. Having a foot on the ground here is the only way for India to legitimately and effectively dispute the illegal Chinese presence here. 14

Indian strategic community also considers Nubra Valley and Siachen glacier’s Saser La pass as India's best gateway to Central Asia. According to this thought process, when (not if) that pass is reopened for trade, the true strategic worth of defending Saltoro will become apparent even to the most willfully obtuse. 15 This clearly forewarns about the ultimate Indian design and accordingly India wants Pakistan to authenticate current position of both countries over this battlefield making the AGPL as permanent border between Pakistan and India. Pakistan must not ignore this thinking by Indian strategic community while evaluating its option on this frontline.

Rothang Tunnel – Part of Indian army’s strategic infrastructure

Indian Army Observation Post (OP) – Indian Army has built many such to look over Gilgat-Baltistan region and China

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Like every other battlefield in the world, Siachen has its own share of critical lessons to be learned by Pakistan. 1. Pakistan would have been in much advantageous position had it adopted and matured the concept of building robust strategic lift capability as part of overall defense strategy which is crucial in offensive strategic maneuvers particularly in mountainous regions. Pakistan suffered in 1948, 1971 and 1984 as Indians had built and exploited this capability beating Pakistan Army in race to capture critical nodal points in war zones. Operation Maghdoot was essentially an airlift operation. 2. Strategic interests can only be secured from a position of strength in battlefield and it is true for diplomatic engagement as well. Accurate calculations like international reaction, diplomatic implications and geopolitical fallouts must be made in the planning phase of any military maneuver. After all the war, on its own, is a political phenomenon with military power acting as a tool to achieve the position of strength in the end game. In Kargil war 1999, Pakistan was holding on to advantageous position by capturing high grounds but aftermath of war put Pakistani claim and credibility of being peaceful nation on shaky grounds and provided Indians with how-to-trust-Pakistan excuse making the diplomatic job more challenging for Pakistani foreign office.


Pakistan Army Jawan – Standing alert on roof of the world to defend, to serve, to give ultimate sacrifice!

Final Thoughts
Pakistan made series of strategic miscalculations and mistakes on Kashmir issue during the last 2 decades and now there is no margin of error. The country is already in state of war against sub-conventional insurgencies and terrorism amid corruption, economic meltdown, ideological subversion, Indian media onslaught and historically worst governance. These facets of war have put Pakistan into a compromising position as exhibited by the decisions made over trade with India without demanding the solution for Kashmir. Indians being the main protagonist in Pakistan’s existential war of survival are aware of the situation and want to get maximum concessions on each and every unresolved issue. Siachen is one of such core issues where country’s strategic interests are at stake and Gyari avalanche has provided the opportunity to the Indian elements within Pakistani media and civil society to push Indian foreign policy agenda. In present chaotic internal security situation, best option for Pakistan is to maintain the status quo on Siachen issue and pursue the settlement of the issue according to the bilateral agreements of 1949 and 1989 for demarcation of LoC and demilitarization of the glacier. Any backdoor diplomacy over this critical battlefield would be suicidal and treacherous and Pakistani nation and armed forces would never accept another strategic blunder, not after giving countless ultimate sacrifices! *************************

End Notes
1.Pakistan avalanche shines light on ‘futile’ war, Washington Post, Published: April 8, 2012. 2. Demilitarization of the Siachen Conflict Zone: Concepts for Implementation and Monitoring By Brigadier (ret.) Asad Hakeem Pakistan Army, Brigadier (ret.) Gurmeet Kanwal Indian Army 3. An Interview with Padma Bhushan Lt Gen (Retd) Dr M.L Chibber, june/interview.htm 4. Manning the Siachen Glacier BY Nikhil Shah, Sunil S and B. Bhattacharjee 5. The Coldest War By Kevin Fedarko* 6 Ibid 7. EXPEDITION FROM INDIA ARRIVES IN ANTARCTICA By Robert Reinhold Published: February 16, 1982 8. “Saniha Siachen: Ae Puttar Hatan Tey Nahi Vikday” (Urdu) By Lt. Gen(retired) Abdul Qayyum Published: April 13, 2012

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9. All about the Siachen Glacier: the conflict, perspectives of India and Pakistan, geography, history and the possible resolutions 10. Experiencing Siachen War ( Part 3) By: KEVIN FEDARKO 11. Getting real on Siachen BY AVM(Retired) Shahzad Chudhary Published April 18, 2012. 12. Rohtang Tunnel to be completed by 2014 By Ritu Sharma published: 12/08/2009 13. Dhruv all set to be inducted in Siachen sector, Hindustan Times Published September 03, 2007 14. Don't sell out Siachen By Dr Subhash Kapila Published: May 24, 2006 may/24guest.htm 15. Celebrating 20 years of victory on the Saltoro Ridge

8 Armageddon 2014
Road to Ghazwa-e-Hind
Zaid Hamid

The real possibility and the scenario of a major nuclear war between Pakistan and India involving all major civilizations
Preliminary Note
The assassination of one man in Bavaria triggered the First World War, which killed over 10 million people. The rise to power of one dictator in Germany initiated the Second World War, which killed 30 million more; and those were conventional wars fought with first generation planes, tanks and machine guns. Ironically, the concept of ‘war’ is an inherent inevitability of human psyche and therefore, cannot be eliminated either from the present or from the future. One can only prepare for it. As history has taught us on numerous occasions, no nation has ever suffered or regretted preparing for a war. On the contrary, those who have neglected the war preparations according to the requirements of technology and threats of their time have suffered terrible consequences. The next war on civilizational axis is inevitable. Only the time frame can be argued. That will also not be a conventional war and will not limit itself to war zones or battle lines. There will neither be any neutrals nor any victors – just survivors. The victors being those who will manage to survive the holocaust, during and after. There can be no nuclear doctrine in any nuclear armed country, which does not account for Survivability: Survival of civilian population, survival of strategic food and fuel assets, survival of strategic military and economic assets, survival of delivery mechanism for second strike options and above all survival of national will to rise from the ashes and rebuild again, fending off the scavenger civilizations who will be pouring in from all directions to take advantage of the national calamity. The nuclear guidebook without the chapter on survival is flawed, defective and should be relegated to the trash bin.

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Pakistan has yet to take even the first basic steps in the direction of National Survival Strategy. By not preparing for a nuclear exchange and fallout scenario NOW, our leaders, military planners and strategists would be making a suicidal mistake which will not just cost tens of millions of lives but will also revert the country to the stone age, incapable of surviving the inevitable. It has to be done now when we have the fiscal space and economic resources to plough back into the national survival strategy on war footings. Each passing day closes a window for us. Under the already emerging scenario of Indian 4GW and the Cold Start doctrine, this paper is a “worst case” analysis and an attempt to predict the possible flow of events in not so distant a future, in near realistic environment, based on current global and regional conflict development trends and fault lines. It is also intended as a warning for the national leadership about the future as seen from the prism of today’s regional dynamics. Even if our threat assessment, scenario analysis, or time line is questioned by other pundits, Pakistan can only benefit and gain by preparing for such a scenario for which almost all nuclear armed countries (and other wise nations) are either already prepared or are preparing expediently. Under the Cold Start or any future Pak-India high intensity war, which can be triggered under any pretext, it would be impossible to keep the conflict bilateral or even conventional. Events can radically get out of control with catastrophic fallouts for the region as well as the world. The Indian government and military are getting increasingly radical due to the penetration of “Saffron” ideology of Hindu Zionism. Fascist groups like RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal, led by terrorists of the likes Bal Thakrey have penetrated the mainstream Indian political parties of BJP and Congress as well as the Indian military establishment. The fascist radicalization of Indian military and their political leadership has made India the most dangerous nuclear-armed country with declared goals of annihilating Muslims and Pakistan from the region. Whether we like it or not, a final conflict with India is inevitable. It can be delayed or postponed but not avoided. As per Muslim history and holy scriptures and in the sayings of the Holy Prophet (sm), this final conflict is called “Ghazwa e Hind”, the final war for India! India will start this war and Pakistan will finish it, Inshallah!

The Environment
The year is 2014. A patriotic and honorable government is in place in Islamabad, which took over in 2010 after a judicial and military coup, after removing a corrupt and incompetent regime, which had brought the country to the brink of disaster. Since the last 4 years, the present government has managed to control the collapse of economy, reduce corruption radically and contain the wave of terrorism to make Pakistan a reasonably stable and strong nation within the Muslim world. The world is in turmoil all around Pakistan but the Pakistani nation has managed to remain stable and strong. The Kashmir dispute is still simmering and Afghanistan remains in a delicate state without any strong government and with multiple militias controlling the country. There is still a strong presence of western forces in the Northern regions. United States and Israel have successfully over run the entire ME, creating various headless states and smaller principalities or weak client Satellite States in the Muslim heartland in place of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Saudi Ara-

bia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordon. Israel has annexed the entire Palestinian lands and has started constructing colonies and settlements in Jordon, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt even extending into parts of Saudi Arabia near Tabuk. The entire Gulf region has become an effective US colony with major US bases spread across the entire region having force projection capability into South Asia, Central Asia and South West China. The entire fuel assets and fuel routes from the Gulf and Central Asia are under US and coalition control. But there are pockets of fierce resistance in every part of occupied ME. Muslim resistance groups and militants have launched massive war of resistance against US presence in the Muslim lands and are proving to be elusive and deadly foes for the US forces. Afghan resistance remains fierce, still bogging down US and NATO occupation forces even after 13 years of occupation. Pakistan has cut down the supply lines of NATO and NATO is forced to find long and expensive routes from Central Asia and via Iran. The US economy is collapsing at home. Dollar is being abandoned as a currency and a new political alliance of North American Union consisting of Mexico, USA and Canada has come into existence on the pattern of EU with plans for a new currency Amero being floated. In dollar terms, US cost of occupation is a staggering $20 bn a month with hundreds of casualties and wounded every month. The situation is not stabilizing despite massive injection of US military and economic resources in the region. The quality of life in occupied Muslim lands is getting hopelessly desperate, creating an explosive environment for the US forces present amongst hostile population. Terrorism in the US mainland and Europe has resulted in establishing radical security measures against the local Muslim population, and a mass migration of Muslim immigrants back to their native lands has started due to fears of persecution in Europe and America. Tension between the West and Islam is at all time high since the crusades of the 10th century. There is also serious friction building between Russia and the United States particularly over establishment

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of anti-ballistic missile shield by US in Eastern Europe and distribution of fuel resources of Caspian and for control of vast economic and military assets in Central Asia. Tension is running high between US backed Georgia and Russia while the US backed Chechens are also taking advantage of Russian weaknesses to launch even more daring raids into the Russian mainland. Relations between Turkish and Russian forces come under a strain when a group of run away Chechens enter Turkey and Russians enter in hot pursuit. Even though Turkey is rediscovering its Islamic identity and is drawing away from NATO, yet NATO threatens to side with Turkey in the standoff and tells the Russians to back off. Thus skirmishes threaten to brew on the European front. The US economy and military is under tremendous stress. The domestic budget deficit has grown to a staggering 14 trillion dollars, inflation is 12 percent and local jobless figures are at 40 million. The mass migration of millions of skilled Muslims has created a serious crisis of production and growth in industry and economy. Industrial produce has gone down by 40% and market shares lost to powerful emerging economies of China, Far East and India. Global warming, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and snowstorms have damaged over 7 trillion dollars worth of economic infrastructure in just 2 years. The US forces are spread too thin all over the globe – at an estimate of 3 quarters of a million troops, in 120 countries and lands. There is nervousness and panic in the US government. The security of fuel assets and fuel routes has not produced the desired response in the mainland for economic turnaround. Subsequently, a group of local white Supremacist militia of a doomsday cult, fed up with the policies of the US government, launches a devastating attack on the US power and communication infrastructure, crippling the economy to the tune of many trillion dollars in over a week. The situation becomes desperate for the US government. The US media, under the influence of AIPAC, the Israeli lobby, starts a massive global propaganda, stating that the attack on US infrastructure has come from Muslim extremists based in the ME and Pak-Afghan region. Meanwhile, during trade talks with China, the US insists that China reduce duties on US products, strengthen the Yuan and stop influencing economic spheres in the Far East and Asia. The US threatens to stop the Chinese fuel supplies from the Gulf, unless China stops giving subsidy to Chinese goods in Asian and European markets, in order to make way for the Americans products. China threatens to abandon the dollar in international trade and starts dumping from its reserves of over a trillion dollar foreign exchange. US economy takes a fatal dive while the dollar collapses in the international forex market, as all countries start to switch to Gold or other currencies. Tensions quickly mount and talks break down. The US intercepts bulk oil cargo ships from the Gulf carrying oil for China. China threatens to use force and begins war games in the Taiwanese strait. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan feel intimidated and ask US to interfere after failing to convince China. The situation aggravates around the Korean Peninsula as well, as a North Korean Destroyer is sunk by a South Korean mine. The Chinese war games are taken as an act of hostility by the US, and Pacific fleet is mobilized to counter the rapidly building Chinese military presence in the region. The Chinese vice Premier visits Uighur autonomous region and is assassinated by a US backed Uighur separatist group. China demands extradition of the groups’ leader from the US, but is refused and the situation becomes critical between US and China in Asia. Pakistan and India maintain their present status quo in bilateral relations in 2014. Kashmir remains a sore issue and even though militancy in the valley has died down considerably, the clashes along the LoC and working boundary are a routine. India has made progress in leaps and bounds in the economic and military spheres and

continues to pose serious challenges to Pakistan in both spheres, but the nuclear deterrent maintains a credible balance despite very bitter terms between the two countries. India remains the main ally and military beneficiary from the US. The US has cultivated India as a counter balance against China in case of a US-China conflict scenario and to counter balance Pakistan for fear of an ‘Is-

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lamic” nuclear threat. Though India had used the US military and economic dependence upon Delhi to build its own military potential as a regional civilization capable of challenging even China and US independently, its own desires were not to take sides in any US-China conflict. Therefore, India has now decided to play a game of ‘wait and watch’, as to which civilization survives or weakens to allow the breakout of the Hindu civilization in Asia. India has given military bases to US for operations in East Asia but has not committed to fight alongside US against China. The US is deeply concerned at this arrangement. Since the past few years, the Naxalites and Maoists within India, backed by China, had become the greatest internal security challenge for the Indian federation, over running almost 40% of India in the “Red Corridor”. Indian army has been fighting a losing war against the Maoists in the thick jungles of rural India. Concurrently, the Sikh movement has also gained momentum. In the seven sister states in the East, rebellions are already simmering at high levels, putting extreme pressure on the Indian federation. Despite serious frictions between Pakistan and US/NATO alliance over Afghanistan, Pakistan has constructively engaged with the US and the West. Pakistan also remains a close friend of China and cannot be trusted by the US in a US-China conflict scenario. Even though there is no visible Chinese military presence on Pakistani soil, the proximity of Pakistan and China and their close ties has always been a matter of serious concern for the US. Also, China had provided Pakistan with nuclear technology and long range anti-Ship missiles which gave Pakistan the ability to choke all the fuel supplies and shipping from the Gulf if a US flotilla decides to take battle station close to the Chinese mainland. The Chinese presence in Gawader is being used for spying on the US in the Gulf. Pakistan is indeed an unreliable country from the US perspective. The US intelligence sources had predicted in 1998 that China would take at least till 2020 to be able to develop enough force projection capability to match the US military presence in Asia and to pose any threat to the US mainland in case of a nuclear exchange. In 1998, the Chinese were extremely inferior to the US in space and satellite warfare, fighter aircrafts, reconnaissance and surveillance, communications, missile defense, naval force projection capability and survival capability in an NBC warfare environment. In the year 2002, Russia entered into a strategic defense alliance with China in order to transfer Russian high technology military knowledge of fighter aircraft, missile defense and space warfare to China and the collaboration rapidly polished off a decade of Chinese research and development. The Americans had revised their estimates in 2004 predicting that the Chinese would have the requisite force projection and survival capability against a massive US unconventional strike by 2015. The US military commanders had sent a summary to the White House in 2004 that if China reaches the threshold of its capability to not just strike the US mainland but also survive a massive counter strike by the US, then it would become almost impossible to eliminate the Chinese threat to US interests in the 21st century, within the acceptable cost and collateral damage. The US has already devised a strategy to hit the Chinese Asian interests before China could cross that red line and become a serious unmanageable threat for the US. Provoked by the domestic economic meltdown due to the collapse of US dollar, Chinese stubbornness to concede grounds in trade talks, and threatened by the radical development of Chinese capability to strike at US Space assets and the mainland, the US is already contemplating plans to hit China first with a massive nuclear strike on the Chinese mainland. Almost at the same time, the BJP is ruling India with hardliners from RSS virtually controlling the Indian State

The Indian Cabinet meeting is being held in Delhi. A group of 6 Naxalite Maoists stealthily sneak into the parliament and open fire, killing over 100 people from the government, security forces and media. BJP immediately puts the blame on Kashmiri groups and blame ISI and Pakistan. The Indian cabinet orders mobilization of Indian forces. Under the Cold Start doctrine, Independent Battle Groups (IBG’s) of the Indian army are secretly told to warm up for an immediate invasion, while India launches a massive global diplomatic and media campaign to isolate Pakistan. On the surface, the Indians keep the crisis on diplomatic and media plains and send high level delegations to Islamabad for negotiations, giving the perception to Pakistan that the crisis can be resolved diplomatically; but on ground, the invasion is ordered within 24 hours of the Indian delegation’s return back to Delhi. The Armageddon is about to begin……

Day 1 minus 1
In Washington, emergency war council is meeting in the White House headed by the US President and is attended by, amongst many others, the Commanders of Central Command (CentCom), USEUCOM and Pacific Command (USPACOM). Certain crisis issues are hotly debated: ♦ The US forces are already spread too thin in the ME and Asia for a concentrated force projection against China. Carrier battle groups were too vulnerable to Chinese missiles. With serious crisis also building in Western Europe, substantial US forces from Europe could not be moved to Asian theatres. ♦ The US does not have any close proximity military base to China in Asia. Diego Garcia and Australia are too far and so are the ME bases. South Korea is too close for military significance and survival. Philip-

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through their Prime Minister Narender Modi, the butcher of Gujarat. Col Prohit, the notorious Indian military intelligence officer responsible for Samjhota express blasts and known for his links with Hindu Saffron brigades, has been released by the courts for want of evidence and is now serving as the head of Pakistan Desk in the Indian secret service RAW.

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pines, Taiwan, Pakistan and India are the closest options. ♦ The thinning of US forces, vulnerability of Carrier battle groups and non-availability of close proximity military bases, leave the only option of long range ballistic missiles, with decisive and ruthless strike capability against the Chinese mainland for swift, total and deadly destruction of the Chinese military and economic potential; incapacitating China from launching any retaliatory strike against the US mainland or the US forces present in Asia. The US plans to launch an initial strike of 30 low to high yield tactical nuclear ballistic missiles in the first wave, and then launching a second wave of 20 missiles, after initial damage assessment within 12 hours. The Chinese casualties are estimated to be close to a 100 million in the first wave, with over 400 million wounded or radiation exposed. The second wave is supposed to take out any remaining survivors or military infrastructure within the East, Mid and Northern Chinese region. The total number of Chinese casualties is expected to be more than almost half the population. ♦ Once the question of Chinese engagement strategy is resolved, the attention is turned towards the Chinese allies, especially Russia, North Korea and Pakistan. Russia is not deemed a nuclear threat and North Korea will already be taken out in the initial wave; leaving Pakistan as the core issue for US command in their war against China. ♦ It is decided in the meeting that the US will ask Pakistan to side against China in the war. In case Pakistan refuses, neutrality will not be trusted or accepted and Pakistan will be treated as an enemy State, to be taken out on day one to avoid giving any advantage to the Chinese. However, in very close proximity of Pakistan lies India, and the US bases in the Gulf and Central Asia create a dilemma for the US commanders. Any high yield nuclear strike on Pakistan will create serious blast and fallout effects, which will have very serious consequences for US interests, assets, troops and war capability in India, the ME and the Gulf. Pakistan has to be taken out using very low yield nuclear strikes at selected places, combined with massive conventional strikes against defense and economic infrastructure, for total incapacitation in order to prevent any share in defense of China or causing any harm to US interests. ♦ News of Indian mobilization against Pakistan comes as a surprise for both US and China. Another nuclear war in the region is now inevitable. China is already mobilizing against possible US hostile military action. The Indian military moves against Pakistan threaten Chinese interests gravely. The US cannot get involved to diffuse tensions between Pakistan and India due to its own rapidly building crisis with China. Pakistan has also started its mobilization rapidly as Indian IBGs (independent battle groups) menacingly lurk around the border. Sensing the hostile intentions of India and the fact that the US cannot be trusted, Pakistan urgently requests China to get involved. ♦ An unexpected Chinese warning to India has taken both US and India by surprise. Sensing the Indian mood to act as a US proxy and to attack Pakistan, China warns India not to act as a staging post for US strikes on the Chinese mainland or on Pakistan as any such act, according to the Chinese, will be taken as being hostile, and India will be ruthlessly targeted by China. Despite strong US assurances to Delhi over incapability of China to strike India after US first strikes, India refuses to openly side with the US in the war. It is, however, agreed that India will maintain an international face of neutrality but covertly support the US with intelligence, logistics and even bases once China is totally destroyed. Also, India is tasked to attack and over run Pakistan after the initial US strikes to make sure that Pakistan remains excluded in the main US-China war. It is a win-win situation for India and US. They could remain neutral in case of a nuclear exchange, get Pakistan destroyed through US and then walk over to capture the country, which


had been their dream since the past 67 years. ♦ It is time to talk to the Pakistani President. The US President picks up the phone and connects the Presidency in Islamabad. “Mr. President, this is the President of the United States of America. Our country is facing hostile action from the People’s Republic of China. The Whole free world is siding with us in the war against this hostility. I want to know – Is Pakistan with us in this war or against us? Neutrality is not an option, have I made myself clear here?” After a brief pause, the President of Pakistan replies, “Mr. President, Pakistan is a peace loving country, which is already being threatened by India. Pakistan has its own wars to fight and wishes to remain neutral in the US-China war. But any act of hostile intent against us will be considered as an act of war and we shall defend ourselves with all our might. Instead Pakistan will urge the United States to use their influence on India to refrain from initiating any hostilities”. “Very well Mr. President”, replies the US President, “We appreciate your desire to stay neutral in this war. We will just make sure of that. India is our ally and we shall surely try to influence Indian decision of threatening Pakistan”….. and the line drops………………. ♦ Even before the conversation is over, orders have been given to launch strikes against Pakistan and China within the next four hours. It is decided that since India will be available to neutralize Pakistan, the US will target Pakistan, using conventional weapons only to decapitate and incapacitate the Pakistani leadership and critical defense and logistic infrastructures. The Indian forces are given clearance by the US to cross the international border and mop up the remaining Pakistani forces after the initial US air and missile strike. ♦ Messages are sent to Moscow to stay neutral in this conflict or else Russia will also be attacked with nuclear weapons and annihilated. The Russian President does not see any strategic advantage to join the hostilities, therefore, assures the US of compliance.

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Day 1
The Central Command and Indian army are jointly given the task to use massive conventional means to destroy the entire military and economic war potential of Pakistan. While the US and NATO will use their superior Air Power and Satellite image processing to locate and detect possible deployment of Pakistan’s nuclear assets, Indians will be tasked to secure the ground and cripple the strategic and conventional forces of Pakistan. According to plan, the Pakistan air operation is to be concluded within 24 hours after the first wave of strikes. Against China, the Pacific Command is to deploy a massive nuclear barrage using Air Force and ICBM’s to decisively crush any resistance potential of the Chinese, before the US ground forces with NBC protective battledresses can move in to secure the remains. Due to massive deployment of nuclear forces, the time to eliminate the Chinese resistance is estimated to be within 24 hours after the second wave, which is to be launched 12 hours after the first. The US troops will move into the Chinese mainland after 48 hours to cater for blast and fallout effects. The attacks are launched simultaneously against Pakistan and China without warning, while the UN Security Council was discussing the crisis. The US deploys the doctrine of pre-emptive strikes and takes China and Pakistan by complete surprise. Indian (Independent battle groups) IBG’s roll into Pakistan simultaneously, through multiple points from the working boundary near Sialkot to Pannu Aqil in Sindh. The first wave of 30 nuclear capped, Satellite guided, deep ground penetrating precision ICBM’s, and cruise missiles are launched against China at 0900 hrs. China takes the hits directly with the most devastating effects. 30 million die instantly, while another 70 million deaths occur within a couple of hours due to radiation, heat, earthquake and blast effects. Over 300 million wounded go into a state of shock and exposure and begin their agonizing wait for death within the next 48 hours, due to radiation over exposure, fallout effects and poisoned air. Deathly silence enshrouds the entire country, as Satellite pictures only show massive cloud and dust cover reducing visibility to zero. At 9:30 am in the morning, it is pitch darkness over China as sun has been totally blocked by black clouds of radioactive dust. The satellite imagery is being hampered by the dark clouds, and battle damage assessment is not possible. The second strike of ICBM’s is delayed by another 8 hours, till proper target assessment can be done. This delay will prove to be fatal for the Americans later on. At 0900 hrs on the same day, more than 400 American, NATO and Indian Stealth bombers and fighters launch a massive surprise air attack on Pakistan from the US and Indian bases in the region. Pakistan is not prepared for such an eventuality and is caught off guard. Pakistan Air force is severely handicapped as the latest block 52 F-16’s and their BVR missiles were programmed by the US so as not to target western aircraft, making them almost defenseless and futile under such a scenario. Since nuclear weapons were not to be deployed, 15,000 lbs Daisy cutters and massive 22,000 lbs conventional bombs are used extensively. The attacks last throughout the day, non-stop in waves backed by precision strikes by cruise missiles. Targets included critical nerve points of Pakistan’s security and economic infrastructure: ♦ Karachi ports and Naval Shipyards. ♦ Steel Mills.

♦ Karachi city itself for chaos and destruction, using daisy cutters. ♦ National Refinery and oil terminals. Armageddon 2014 108 ♦ Naval battle ships and coastal defenses. ♦ Karachi airport. ♦ Railway lines in interior Sindh. ♦ Hub Dam to destroy water supply of the city. ♦ All Corp HQ’s, JS HQ, GHQ, Naval HQ and PAF HQ. ♦ All fighter bases and airports of the country. ♦ All Dams including Tarbela, Mangla to destroy power in the country. ♦ POF installations around Pindi including HIT and other defense industries. ♦ All railway junctions. ♦ All strategic bridges over rivers. ♦ Massive bombardment of cities of Lahore, Multan, Islamabad, Pindi, Peshawar and Quetta including the industrial areas. ♦ All tele-communication centers and grids in cites and countryside. ♦ All field formations deployed along the eastern front against India. ♦ All known strategic force centers and missile batteries. ♦ Kahuta and NESCOM installations. The damage caused in Pakistan by these massive bombing is catastrophic and results in: ♦ Complete destruction of all fighter bases and airports. ♦ Complete breakup of communication links between various Corps, HQ’s and field formations. ♦ Complete destruction of all naval forces and bases. ♦ No power in the entire country. ♦ No water in major cities, no gas and massive damage. After day 1 of the attack, the US forces withdraw to evaluate the damage as the Indian forces begin rolling in, crossing the border on various axes. Their targets include:

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♦ Penetration from Kashmir, cut off KKH and try to capture Muree heights and attack Islamabad. ♦ Penetration from Lahore and capturing the city. ♦ Penetration from Narowal-Zafarwal sector and capturing Sialkot. ♦ Attacking Gujranwala. ♦ Penetration from the desert and capturing Multan and Bahawalpur. ♦ Penetration from Sindh, cutting off the national highway and attacking Pannu Aqil and also penetration from Khokrapar to move on to Hyderabad while the Indian Navy would blockade and attack Karachi from sea. ♦ Foil attempts by Pakistan army to link up between various Corps and eliminate each Corps by surrounding it around various Corp HQ’s on Pakistan’s eastern front. ♦ Prevent any possible launch of Pakistani missiles which might be deployed by isolated units. India is using space sensing technology provided by the US. ♦ Just like China, entire Pakistani state is under severe shock and almost incapacitated. Mercifully, though the loss is terrible in terms of material and resources, the human loss is only in tens of thousands and not millions due to conventional weapons being deployed. ♦ The US and India are aware that they cannot take out all of Pakistan’s nuclear assets and missiles in one strike. They instead focus on taking out the delivery mechanisms, PAF, command and control systems, military leadership and nerve points of the country to gain enough time in order to make rapid ground progress by the Indian forces to physically move in and first isolate and then capture the entire Pakistani government, armed forces and strategic assets. They never expect to meet any resistance from the Pakistani forces after the devastating first day strikes against both China and Pakistan by US/NATO/Indian air forces. The Indian ground forces cut through the borders at seven theatres and make rapid advances into the Pakistani territory at the end of day 1. Small separated detachments of Pakistani forces put up fierce resistance but are either over run or have to withdraw under massive pressure. Victory seems inevitable and close for the invading forces. Both US and India are dead wrong!!


Day 2
China has survived the initial holocaust. 50 years of preparation for nuclear blast and fallout protection, and investment in civil defense programs has finally begun to pay off. While the US satellites try to peek through the black radioactive haze over China to do damage assessment, the Chinese fortified command and control bunkers in North West and South Central China, prepare to launch their own missile strikes, spread over the entire world, targeting US interests. The Russian satellite technology has enabled the Chinese to relay the “code red” message to all their overseas assets and nuclear submarines in Asia Pacific, to fight independent wars against all enemy targets.

The Chinese embassy in Islamabad is able to relay the message about joint US-Indian attack on Pakistan and possible use of Indian bases by US forces. India becomes a hostile country and is immediately added to the target list by China’s strategic missile command. Armageddon 2014 110 In 2008, China, to the horror of US strategists, had acquired the star wars capability by successfully destroying a satellite in space from an earth launched missile. China had rapidly built on their capability and by 2010 had developed the capability to locate, target and destroy almost all satellites over their skies. If the US satellites were to be taken out, the US will be virtually blind over China and its observation and spying systems, as well as tracking GPS systems will fail to work, making the missiles and fighter jets inaccurate and unguided over hostile skies. Now China launches its first wave of attacks on US satellites, destroying all of them, making it impossible for the US to observe China anymore for battle damage assessment or to monitor the Chinese military movement. The US is now officially blind to find a nuclear war. The Chinese have even managed to explode an electromagnetic bomb or E-bomb device in space, which has destroyed all other international GPS and tracking satellites over China, making it impossible for any force to use the Satellite guidance and tracking facility. The Chinese launch a second wave of 23 nuclear- capped ICBM’s. With all Satellites over China having been destroyed, the US is not able to detect the incoming missiles, and once over the American skies, it is too late even when the radars pick their trail. To the horror of the US tracking radars, 18 high yield warheads are heading towards the US mainland. The US missile defense shield is not capable to knock out all of them. At best it can only take out 3 incoming missiles, while the rest are sure to make ground fall all across the United States. The Chinese have been mercilessly selective in making the hits, as the entire East to West Coast is about to experience an apocalyptic event! Four low yield, deep penetrating missiles are also launched into India – hitting Delhi, Bangalore, Calcutta and Madras. One missile is launched against the US bases in Australia. A Chinese nuclear submarine, lurking in the Indian Ocean, south of Sri Lanka, launches another missile into the South China Sea between Taiwan, South Korea and Philippines, in an innovative use of nuclear power. A huge Tsunami tidal wave of over 200 meters rises from the sea, moving at 300 mph from the epicenter in the Ocean, taking the

BrassTacks Policy Papers

entire US carrier battle group, with 200 war ships and over 40,000 troops to the bottom in less than five minutes. The huge wave then moves on to envelop Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Philippines in their entirety, as well as many parts of Indonesia and stretches as far as north of Australia. Out of the 18 incoming Chinese missiles, 17 make ground contact in the US, unleashing a devastation even the US is not prepared for. One lands in the deep Pacific Ocean, 30 miles from San Francisco. The St Andrews fault line is triggered due to shock waves, causing the entire West coast to flatten under immeasurable seismic force, followed by a tidal wave sweeping 150 miles inland, washing the entire West coast into the sea. The death toll from the first strikes is estimated to be around 40 million, with over 100 million wounded, incapacitated or radiation exposed, without any power, water or shelter. The earthquakes, tidal wave and subsequent fires have destroyed the entire power and communication structure as well. The US is almost back in the Stone Age, for all practical purposes. With the destruction of the entire US fleet and forces in the Pacific and Asia, there is no more launching of the second wave of missiles on China, as the forces in the Gulf are neither armed with nuclear weapons, nor have any Satellite support to launch a conventional missile or air attack. The war of missiles between China and US comes to a brisk end on day 2, with both sides counting their losses and trying to evaluate the holocaust. On the other hand, half a million Indian troops and their armored divisions and artillery support, which had entered into Pakistan, have survived the nuclear attack on Indian cities. However, they have lost all contact with their respective HQ’s; the Indian army is now on its own inside Pakistan, without air cover and even satellite communication and imagery. India cannot use nuclear missiles against Pakistan for fear of destroying its own entire army. It is going to be a bloody battle for survival for the Indian forces, inside Pakistan in a conventional war to be fought on irregular and asymmetrical patterns, on hostile ground and on exterior lines, with vulnerable supplies and without the C4I. After having made early advances into the Pakistani territory, the Indian army goes battle- blind and panic immediately starts to set in. The entire Indian command and control system is gone and there is no one to decide about the targets or give orders to launch attacks. The Indian naval forces in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Mumbai, having blocked Karachi, are now preparing for a landing near the city. But the entire plan is thrown into complete disarray after the devastating Chinese strikes against the US and Indian forces. The whole of India is under a devastating radioactive cloud cover, with initial casualties of over 100 million due to blast effects, and over 30 million dying due to exposure and radiation. There are no emergency services and the entire State infrastructure has collapsed. The entire cabinet and government have evaporated in the strike on Delhi. Effectively, India is a headless State, with half a million of its troops attacking major Pakistani cities deep inside Pakistan. This is the time for a Pakistani counter attack. Fortunately, Pakistan had prepared for such a scenario back in 2010, and has a complete plan to counter attack.

The Pakistani response
In 2010, Pakistan had launched an ambitious plan to counter such a scenario, which included: ♦ Re-writing the war doctrine so that each Corp could fight independent theatre wars, without being in communication with other sectors of war or without being in contact with the GHQ. Each Corp

Commander was authorized to wage independent wars with even a command and control system at his disposal for launch of strategic weapons. Armageddon 2014 112 ♦ Emphasizing on fortress defenses around major cities with massive survival capability in order to withstand not just conventional bombings but also great survival probability under a nuclear fallout scenario. Pakistan had initiated the biggest civil defense program in Asia in 2010 with underground shelters, compulsory military training for students and massive defense constructions around cities for fortress defenses. ♦ Even the countryside was dug into creation of massive defense constructions and underground tunnels, bunkers and shelters for a sustained guerilla war and survival under nuclear fallout effects. ♦ Creation of a strategic nuclear proof PAF and missile reserve in the mountains of Baluchistan, hidden from the rest of the country with 150 fighters safely tucked away with complete nuclear command and control systems and war heads. This reserve is now going to be the most invaluable asset for Pakistan to assure victory and survival. ♦ Ample food and fuel stocks were protected in under ground silos and mountain depots for the population and armed forces. ♦ Acquiring of nuke powered submarine with nuclear armed cruise missiles. This was deployed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Yemen for secrecy and stealth action. The Indian army detachments are neither in contact with each other nor with their HQ’s and are hopelessly stuck to fight independent wars within Pakistan. The Chinese nuclear strikes and elimination of the entire Indian government has demoralized it beyond recovery. But a segment of the Indian army insists upon moving forward to capture Pakistani cities. In the end, fierce fighting breaks out between the advancing Indian army and Pakistani defenders. The effects of nuclear fallout and radioactive clouds are now being felt over Pakistan, as anyone out in the open is dangerously close to death. The Pakistan army decides to wait out the period in their fortress defenses, as the Indian advancing army remains exposed in the open trenches and bunkers. With supply lines cut and heavy exposure to radioactive clouds, the war fighting capability of Indians is rapidly reduced. But they press on and though they have made major strides inside Pakistan, even capturing Sialkot and Lahore, and reaching the gates of Hyderabad, they are being met with fierce resistance by the Pakistan army which has changed the fighting mode into unconventional, irregular asymmetric warfare at these places and has also dug into the fortress defenses in all other cities. The Indian advance has now come to a halt as their army detachments are now being surrounded. Now Pakistan has to respond. No one in the US, India or Israel is aware of Pakistan’s strategic air reserve. It comes as a total surprise. A squadron of F-16’s is launched to attack the Indian navy at sea using anti-Ship missiles. Pakistani submarines have already attacked and sunk the Indian aircraft carrier, and have effectively lifted off the Indian naval blockade. The PAF planes and subs destroy yet another 17 cruisers, destroyers and frigates. The escaping US armada from the Gulf is attacked by both Pakistani and Chinese subs in Indian Ocean, and by the PAF fighters from their secret base in Baluchistan.

BrassTacks Policy Papers

After 1 week
The actual hostilities between China and US continue only for a couple of more days. Both are totally devastated to continue any further. The US announces a total withdrawal from Asia and Gulf to the mainland, where civil wars have broken out between federating States. With no food or electricity for the people, Martial Law is declared in the US, as riots and anarchy take over, however, even this cannot not prevent the disintegration of the USA. The American civilization has almost ceased to exist. China suffered terribly too but manages to survive, thanks to decades of investment in nuclear survival capabilities. The Chinese rapidly begin the task of rebuilding their country. India, which had scored major victories in the early days against Pakistan, is devastated by the Chinese strikes on the mainland with half a million of its army cut off deep inside Pakistan. Desperate for survival, without supplies and separated from each other, the Indian commanders are thrown into panic as the Pakistan army, tribal militants and local population surround and block all escape routes. The entire Indian army’s Independent battle groups (IBG’s), which had rolled into Pakistan, are decimated and most of their IBG equipment is captured, intact, by the Pakistani army. The fierce fighting has been a bloodbath. No prisoners are taken. There is chaos and anarchy in India, as the country begins to breakup on ethnic, tribal and regional lines. The Naxalites take control of the “Red corridor” and declare independence. Sikhs rebel in East Punjab and declare the State of Khalistan and Tamils secede as well. The Seven sister States rebel also and declare their own free mini States. The Pakistan army re-deploys the captured Indian equipment and armored divisions, along with its own armored divisions and moves into India. A fierce cavalry battle at Panipat decides the fate of India. Pakistan army moves on to capture the already devastated city of Delhi without further resistance. The world hears the announcement of “Radio Pakistan Delhi”, and India once again comes under the Muslim rule. On the spiritual plain, the faith in Allah and the belief in the saying of the Prophet (SAW) that a Muslim

army will once again capture India, the Pakistani nation were galvanized with the emotional and religious zeal to fight the invading Indian army. Despite severe loses of men, material and territory, their morale and faith remained unshakable and a fiercely proud nation gelled together to fight back for its dignity and honor and reclaimed its glory. On a more physical level, Pakistan survived this war due to wisdom and foresight of its leadership which had foreseen such an eventuality back in 2010. The survival capability of the nation under nuclear environment, the decentralization of the armed forces into various commands, the revised military doctrine which allowed separate unconventional asymmetrical wars against multiple nations, creation of strategic PAF and missile reserves and force projection capability beyond 3000 km and security of food and fuel resources, even under siege, allowed Pakistan to stage a remarkable comeback when all the enemies had written it off. Pakistan has still paid a heavy price – with 10 million dead and over 20 million wounded and sick, but the country survived, regrouped, re-organized, re-captured and expanded its territory into former India and then, by 2018, rises to become the global power, leading the Muslim world into a collective security and political alliance called the United States of Islam!! *************************
Note: This article was published orginally in BrassTacks Monthly Security Review (Oct. 2010) Vol.1 No.5

Armageddon 2014 114

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