On the Question of Strategy

4GW

Edition: 1st, 2012 Authors: Syed Zaid Zaman Hamid (zaidhamid@zaidhamid.pk) Shahzad Masood Roomi (Shahzad.leo@gmail.com) Farzana Shah Title Design : Waqar Ahmed Siddiqui Designing : Shahzad Masood Roomi PDF version for mass distribution All Rights are reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without the prior written premission from Brsstacks.

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Contents

Building Response to 4GW Hydrological War of India Energy Crisis & Food Security Ideologicl Subversion & Media Warfare Provincial Autonomy and Pakistan 18th Amendment Decentralized and Urban Warfare War on Terror & Collapse of Judicial System Fighting Insurgency

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1 Building Response to 4GW
Farzana Shah

“The weak and the defenseless in this world invite aggression from others. The best way we can serve peace is by removing the temptation from the path of those who think we are weak and, for that reason, they can bully or attack us. That temptation can only be removed if we make ourselves so strong that nobody dare entertain any aggressive designs against us.” (Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, 1948)
Keeping above statement of founding father in view, Pakistan kept on building its defenses for decades. After 1971, these preparations got a renewed momentum. New defense industry was established to acquire selfreliance in defense but all these preparations proved inadequate in recent war against terrorism. The more security forces advance into militant strongholds in FATA, the more Pakistani urban centers become targets of terrorism. Recent violence in Karachi and Lahore is biggest example. Though overall security situation is improving, there is no logical end in sight of this complex war against terror in Pakistan. Initially, it was believed that it was only an insurgency stemmed as a renegade against state policy of allying with US in GWOT (Global War on Terror), but with the passage of time it became clear that it is not just armed insurgencies that are undermining Pakistan’s national security but that there is direct foreign meddling a bigger bone of contention, in almost all state affairs ranging from media to education, economics to foreign policy. From a larger perspective, the biggest challenges and threats confronting Pakistan are from within, by different terrorist outfits and insurgencies for different reasons. But at minute level ,all these challenges are interconnected and through recent revelations during military operations in FATA and Swat it has become evident that almost all the major security challenges, that the state is facing today on various fronts, are strongly bonded with each other tightly. There’s to be found a connection in elements of every challenge involved and this is the fundamental feature of something known as “Fourth Generation Warfare” or 4GWs.

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Introduction to 4GW (4th Generation warfare)
Like said above, heterogeneous and distributed nature of current complex geo-strategic security challenges Pakistan is facing, is a proposition of 4th generation warfare; waged by various hostile actors and “allies” in pursuit of their own greater gains in the region. Before discussing these greater gains of various regional and international players, it would be prudent to inspect what 4th generation is all about? In simplistic terms, 4th generation warfare is a moral and physiological conflict among many countries or communities using distributed, non-state and violent elements from within enemy state. Creating mistrust among enemy communities and propagating uncertainty among enemy nations, are amongst the many goals of any 4th generation endeavor. By gaining higher moral ground, any state can get all the political help and sympathy in an actual conflict. 4th generation warfare is very different from an actual armed conflict, as its entirely based on asymmetrical warfare and tactics, while the major front is physiological, and not physical as in a real conflict. Broadly analyzed, it can be said that national cohesion becomes a primary target of such warfare model. Importance of destroying national unity and creating mistrust becomes all the more relevant when enemy is an ideological state like Pakistan. At the tactical level, various tactics and elements are employed to get these goals- like rare area operations, means supporting armed insurgencies and terrorism on the one hand and centrifugal forces in enemy’s political system, media and civil society on the other. The latter group of element highlights (Subjectively analyses) the actions of former (terrorism) in order to launch Psychological operations against enemy nation to demoralize the enemy society. Economic manipulation, whenever possible, can serve as an extra tool in this kind of warfare. Recently, Globalization has been used as a tool to manipulate the market share by more industrialized nations, which can potentially undermine economic interests of developing nations. Fragile economic conditions in enemy state have always been proved conducive in 4th generation warfare, as it makes it much easier to manipulate allegiance of masses with national fervor.

Tracing 4GW in Pakistan
Pakistan is facing covert security challenges from multiple hostile entities these includes states, groups, powerful lobbies, media outlets etc. Traditionally Pakistan’s overt and covert defense has remained India centric. As geographically India is located in East of Pakistan so mainly focus also remained in Punjab and Sindh, the two provinces bordering India. Due to this fact it proved easier for many criminal groups to stay out of radar for a long period of time while operating in Pakistan’s Northern Province. India got opportunity to put his feet in Afghanistan and launch rare area operations against Pakistan from there. India after entering into Afghanistan started work on recruit and train ad-hoc warriors into Pakistan to fight an Indian proxy war against Pakistani state and military.

Players
In order to trace 4GW tactics and elements in Pakistan and their foreign supporters, studying ongoing counter

Main actors of 4GW against Pakistan are paid insurgent groups in northwestern parts and in Baluchistan. These paid insurgents have been joined by the local extremists and separatist elements from those areas. Recent revelations have proved it beyond doubt that these terrorist groups are receiving financial and tactical help from Indian consulates on Afghan soil despite the presence of US (to whom Pakistan is a major non NATO ally since last 9 years) in Afghanistan. This is where US involvement in ongoing 4th generation offensive becomes disturbing and malicious. Till very recently, it was believed that US was just turning a blind eye to Indian activities in Afghanistan against Pakistan. But now it has become clear that US covert offensive against Pakistan is much more heinous than was envisaged earlier. Elements in US military, intelligence setup and White House have bought the idea that actual cause for Afghan resistance is Pakistan, thus the shift of US foreign policy focus to Pakistan. A whole new doctrine for Pakistan was devised under the name of Af-Pak, declaring Pakistan a battlefield along with Afghanistan. This absurd theory was originally sold to US administration during Bush era by Indian lobby in Washington, who proposed alongside possible solutions to the ‘Pakistan problem.’ US was quick to form an alliance with India, in hope for relief from the mess that they had created in Afghanistan, and Indian presence in Afghanistan increased resultantly. The Indians, however, had agendas to serve, independent from those of US. Pakistan did protest to US on allowing India a freehand, but perhaps the Indian lobby in Washington was too strong to undo US reliance on India on Af-Pak. Both India and US have their own targets in the region, and both are using their tactics accordingly on all axis. If Indian sponsored insurgents are active in FATA, US sponsored elements are sitting right in the higher echelons of government. For US, it is far easier to maneuver Pakistan’s political landscape.

Tactics
Pakistan is confronting two pronged 4th generation attacks both from India and US. Both countries have issues with Pakistan’s foreign policy. For India, Pakistan’s strong stance on Kashmir needs to be redirected. For US, Pakistan must oblige to US foreign policy strategic objective, where India has a greater role in the region to counterweight China. Over lapping and commonality in foreign policy interests, with regard to Pakistan, of both countries is unprecedented. This is the major driving force behind combined efforts to “fix” Pakistan. The only difference between both countries’ approaches is tactics being employed against Pakistan. Indian tactics revolves around declaring Pakistan a non functional and terrorist state through supporting TTP from Afghanistan, and more recently, by hurting the agriculture in Pakistan, through water blockade in Pakistani rivers. Fourth generation warfare revolves around the idea of creating a complete political paralysis in enemy state or in the area of operation. Atrocities committed by the TTP in FATA and Swat are a clear proof of this fact. First target of TTP in both areas was political figures of the area and this awful practice created an environment of fear and hopelessness among local masses. Absence of political leadership created an atmosphere

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insurgency operations, violent non-state actors (VNSAs) involved in these insurgencies, foreign support these elements are getting and political developments in the country are very important.

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of lawlessness and chaos, giving TTP free hand to recruit, train and arm locals against state by imposing its own ideology and political views on people. Recent disclosure has made it clear that TTP is biggest ad-hoc warrior group in Pakistan serving its foreign sponsors as well as carrying out its local agenda and self-styled Islamic ideology. US covert activities in Pakistan have surfaced in media recently, clearly indicating that Pakistan and US are bound together through compulTTP is prime 4th generation warfare force engaging sion of circumstances. In reality, certain US naPakistani state and military inside Pakistani border. tionals in Pakistan don’t even bother to follow regulations implemented under the Country’s laws. Not only this, same US nationals have threaten Pakistani citizen more than once. Though very disturbing for Pakistani masses but these events look smaller if one looks at what powerful lobbies in US administration are trying to do in Pakistan on other axis of this war.

AXIS OF WAR
Pakistan is facing attacks of 4th generation warfare ad-hoc warriors, supported directly by Indian RAW and indirectly by US/NATO forces in Afghanistan and local Pakistani elements. These ad-hoc warriors are just one dimension of this complex armed duel between state and these non-state actors. Other dimensions include propaganda waged against Pakistan and its nuclear program in particular, economic manipulation by US in war on terror to pressurize Pakistan and by India through its water policy in Kashmir.

Geostrategic / Military Axis
Establishing strategic hegemony in South Asia is primeval Indian dream. Pakistan is not only a major military rival of India but also a serious obstacle in the realization of this dream. To remove this obstacle, Indian establishment is working since the independence of 1947. India got a major break through in her policy in 1971, with the secession of East Pakistan. India played a central role in this secession. Further dismemberment of remaining Pakistan into smaller states on ethnic lines, is something India is trying to do since decades. After 9/11, India found in USA a natural ally in pursuing this sinister agenda against Pakistan. With US complicity, India launched high intensity proxy war against Pakistani state in northwestern areas and FATA from Afghanistan. Indian consulates in all major towns along Pakistani border in Afghanistan are funding and supporting this insurgency since 2005. India wants to accomplish multiple strategic goals through this insurgency; 1. To bring Pakistan to its knees by declaring it a failed state. 2. Building a case against Pakistan being a failed state with nuclear arms which can fall into “wrong” hands. 3. Once declared a failed state, Pakistan will be denuclearized by international community under various global agreements.

Large cache of Indian ammunition has been recovered during Pakistan military operations in FATA and Swat further proving Indian 4GW.

To get Pakistan denuclearized is first step of bigger strategic Indian plan. Next phase is to invade Pakistan physically, which is not possible under a nuclear hangover right now. Denuclearization of Pakistan is a common agenda between American and Indian foreign polices for Pakistan. This is the reason why strong lobbies in US state and defense departments bought Indian plan on Pakistan to denuclearize Pakistan, after declaring it a State unable to protect its nuclear arsenal. Recent military operations by Pakistan army in FATA and Swat have thwarted first phase of this Indian game plan for now. But due to lack of governance and administrative measures in insurgency hit areas, the threat of resurrection of this insurgency is far from over. After sensing losing massive investment on its 4GW warriors in Pakistan, India launched massive diplomatic offensive to declare Pakistan army and intelligence agencies as terrorist organizations in UNO after 26/11 incident. Interestingly legal proceedings and investigations of this incident are still underway, so the hasty call by Indians reflects nothing but their frustration. Under the pretext of 26/11, Indian top military brass has made its intentions clear about peace and security in the region. Indian officials time and again have made it known that India is ready to launch a full scale intense but small war on Pakistan, if another Mumbai style attack happened. This stance by Indian leadership is itself a threatening development for regional peace. Indian announcements of execution of Cold Start strategy is a grave concern for Pakistan’s security.

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Giving statements like these is one aspect of Indian strategy, while on the other hand Indians are smartly playing as messenger of peace in the world while putting blame on Pakistan for every terrorist activity in India. Pakistan army has recovered Indian weapons and ammunition but Islamabad failed to build a case against its arch rival for supporting insurgencies and terrorism in Pakistan.

Geopolitical Axis
Indian foreign policy and diplomacy is another indicator that India is now aggressively working on isolating Pakistan in international community, on the pretext of her being unable to apprehend the terrorists involved in Mumbai terrorists attacks. So far Indian efforts have been pretty successful, made possible by the defeatists in Pakistan, who occupy defining positions in the making of Country’s foreign policy.. First, the Indians brought the matter to UN without completing investigations and its own legal proceedings about Mumbai attacks. Now in the second phase, Indian foreign office is approaching capitals in the region where Pakistani lobby has traditionally been considered stronger. Recent visit of Indian premier to Saudi Arabia is one such example where the subject of terrorism from Pakistani soil was taken up by India. The reaction of concerned departments of Saudi Arabia must be a quick reminder to Pakistani foreign office that Indian are making all the efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally. Pakistani stance in UN on the Indian dossier was very fragile and caused great deal of embarrassment to the nation, while allowing the Indians to portray Pakistan as a hub of terrorists. Even the retired military officials were nominated in the resolution to be declared as terrorists. An isolated and weak Pakistan will be much easier to attack or fight in an actual conflict. Recent shift in Indian military doctrine is a clear indicator of that as well. To defame Pakistan, Indians have internationalized Mumbai attack but never accepted Pakistani assistance in investigations. The case of Samjotha Express has been buried under the dust of time, as it implicated Indian religious fundamentalists in terror but Mumbai has remained open just to defame Pakistan. US covert operations against Iran from Afghanistan also played an important role in destabilizing Pak-Iran relations. CIA formed Jundullah to launch low scale insurgency in Iranian Baluchistan (Sistan- Baluchistan). This insurgent group, with help and on directions from CIA, carried out multiple suicide attacks in Iranian Eastern province bordering Pakistan. As a result not only relationship between two brotherly countries turned sour, but sectarian violence also erupted in Pakistan.

Geo-economic Axis
India is trying to manipulate Pakistan’s economy through water aggression. Natural landscape and geography of subcontinent has provided India with an opportunity to openly work for blocking Pakistan’s water from Indus Basin Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus), which were allocated to Pakistan in IWT 1960. Pakistani concerned authorities already have assessed that by 2014 India can stop water to Pakistani fertile land for a considerably long period of time to prevent sowing crops in time.

A map showing various dams on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir. India is building these dams without any prior discussion with Pakistan which is a clear violation of IWT 1960.

Media / Psychological Axis
In international media, Pakistan is being presented as the most dangerous place for World peace, as it is a state too vulnerable to protect its nuclear arsenal which can fall into the “wrong hands”. Despite the assurances from all levels from Pakistan, the propaganda against Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and their safety has only intensified during last two years. The recent development in media offensive against Pakistan is more disturbing, as it has entered into media manipulation phase by buying elements in all the notable media outlets of Pakistan. According to reports some 50 million dollars have been allocated to be spending in Pakistani media by US administration, in order to get a soft corner for US policies in the region. This is a concerning development for Pakistani media and

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The so-called peace initiatives between the two countries till this date, have failed to address Pakistani concerns on sensitive and important issues of the sort, while India continued to build dams in Kashmir on Pakistani rivers to bring Pakistan on its knees by destroying its agriculture.

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masses, as it will hijack the Pakistani media to portray events as per wishes of US. Recently, Kerry Lugar bill faced severe criticism from every institute of Pakistan and among these institutes the most vocal was Pakistani media particularly, Urdu - both print and electronic. Though some elements in Pakistani media have remained critics of US policies in this country and in this region, but never in 63 years of its history Pakistani media ever preached “anti-American sentiments,” something to be eliminated or reduced from Pakistani media through this allocation of $50 million. It seems to be a PR building campaign in Pakistan by US administration, but it is evident after Kerry Lugar bill that US wants to shun all kind of criticism in Pakistani media on US policies as the official reason given for this allocation is very different from ground realities. Officially this money is to highlight development projects by US in Pakistan, to build trust but interestingly no such project has been initiated yet, so a logical question here is; how US administration deems to highlight its cooperation with Pakistani masses without any actual cooperation on ground? The timing of recent media allocation has raised many eyebrows in circles of critics of US policies. They feel the money will be used to expand the US footprint in Pakistani media to expand its psy-ops to mold opinion of masses, as per US policy makers. One such example is Voice of America, a radio and TV platform that speaks for the government of the US already has a tie-up with Geo TV, and now they have aligned with Express TV (the second largest Urdu news channel after Geo) as well. US media is not the only entity having launched media war against Pakistan, but Indian media also joined the campaign particularly against Pakistani security establishment and its role in war on terror after Mumbai attacks in 2008. Strong Indian lobby in international media has also helped the cause to wage propaganda against Pakistani military and its role in war on terror. The idea that Pakistan military is actually helping Afghan Taliban against US and NATO was sold to the World by Indian elements through various reports by anonymous sources. This idea led US policy makers to believe that Pakistan is actually double crossing US in global war on terror. Resultantly Pakistan had to face more pressure from US. The real intentions of India behind misleading US policy makers were to get some concession on Kashmir and water issues, while keeping the world attention away from these outstanding core issues between two nuclear armed arch rivals in subcontinent.

Proposed Responses (Solutions)
Keeping all the facets of the 4GWs being waged against Pakistan since 8 long years, it is evident that dealing with such threat is not possible by using one state organ alone, like military or civilian administration. Even a combined effort by both sometime fails to pay dividend until seeking a broad public support and a complete national cohesion on defense, foreign and internal polices.

Anti Terrorism Operations
So far, Pakistani military establishment has dealt with ongoing terrorism in a rather effective way adopting quickly to the new methods of urban asymmetrical counter insurgency operations within its own borders. But this must be understood, that for the army also, this was a learning curve which came at a heavy cost.

The national judiciary has almost collapsed in response to this threat leaving the army almost without support from the State organs. This continues to increase pressure on the army which now has to deal with the political, psychological and judicial side of the war as well. In an environment of lopsided priorities and badly managed national governance, pressure on armed forces has increased many folds. Despite the overwhelming odds, army has done remarkably to neutralize the terrorist threats from this axis of the 4GW. But much more can be done to accelerate the process of cleanup and reduce the military, as well as the collateral damage. 1. Urban environment ops have to be intelligence based as theatre of operations is friendly territory infested by insurgents within the friendly local population. Human Intelligence (HINT) as well as technical intelligence (TINT), remains the fundamental elements of any such operations. Tracking of cell and Satellite phones, use of drone technology, night surveillance capabilities remain critical to these operations. These capabilities need to be enhanced radically, almost to the levels of Police state or martial law in theatres of operations, as civil and judicial systems have collapsed in those regions. Army laws and military courts that deal with civilian combatant or insurgents fighting the State or armed forces, need to be invoked for short term to put the fear of God and law in the hearts of the terrorists. 2. Ideally, regular forces should not be used to combat 4GW terrorists. Reserves and paramilitary forces are best options. Pakistan must train more of its paramilitary forces for this role with indigenous tactics and plans. 3. In rural environment, local friendly militias or “Lashkars” to support the military and the para-military to take the lead role in securing their regions, to be backed by the State forces. 4. In the urban environment, a second tier of national defense needs to be created from educated urban youth. Pakistan used to have such a service, NCC, till late 90’s. The compulsory military and civil defense training to the university youth should become mandatory to support security forces in urban environment search, security and neutralizing operations. 5. Due to its complex asymmetrical nature at every level, it is very necessary to study enemy’s technical abilities. The Indian backed TTP and the BLA extensively use cyber world and cellular technology to their advantage. Also, Pakistani TTP has used IED’s, suicide bombing as main tactic against security forces and society and explosive laden vehicles have been proved most dangerous and destructive weapons. Proper anti-cyber terrorism units need to be aggressively active to check and track terrorists in cyber and cellular world. Also, a proper Vehicle Tracking & Management System with ability to track target vehicle at any time can be very useful in reducing the risk of such attacks. 6. After getting a bloody nose in FATA and Swat, now militants are attacking Pakistani cities. So far, this strategy of militants has worked much more effectively to achieve their objective of physiologically de-

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Hundreds of brave and brilliant men have given their life and limb to fight a war army was not geared to fight traditionally. Now the entire Pakistan army has seen ruthless action in the last few years and is battle hardy and trained. Operations still continue to flush out the pockets of resistance by the TTP terrorists, but the war on ground is not supported by the Psy-Ops in national media nor by the political will of the government.

stroying the morale of masses than traditional attacks on security forces in remote areas of NWFP and in FATA. Though both civilian and security forces are target of terrorists, but in big cities like Lahore and Karachi it is civilians who have suffered more. In order to secure the cities it is imperative to enhance the technical intelligence as per needs of 21st century. Keeping every street in a city like Karachi or Lahore in sight all the time is a cumbersome job for any law enforcer, regardless of how well trained its personnel are. It is time to incorporate emerging military technologies in urban centers for gathering information and to keep an eye in a particular area on high risk targets. Pakistan is making surveillance drones for many years now and has also exported these planes to foreign customers as well. It is time to adopt this surveillance technology in the cities to get real time intelligence on suspected entities in a particular city. Drones are much cheaper alternative to an expensive and more complex satellite based surveillance.

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Arial View of Gulberg area, Lahore, where attack on Sri Lankan cricket team took place in 2009. It must be noted that with this congested road and street (Yellow lines in picture) network, it is impossible to trace terrorists once they fled from crime scene. With Drones this deficiency in real time tactical surveillance can be overcome.

7. Another area of technical enhancement in COIN operation is to enhance the ability to track enemy’s hideouts. Traditional methods of implanting someone in enemy ranks or buying out enemy assets has not proved hundred percent foolproof, as it is very difficult to differentiate friends from foes in this covert

8. Inter agency protocols for sharing sensitive information among various law enforcement bodies in the country has been traditionally a weak link in investigations. It is time to adopt new cutting edge technologies to build repositories with multiple access level to enhance cooperation among various law enforcement agencies and to enable these law enforcers to carry out real time investigations. 9. Absence of modern forensic labs is another hurdle in investigations. Pakistan must work to build state of the art forensic facility in the country as Pakistan and it must be equipped with all necessary technical facilities in this regard.

Governance & Administrative Measures
10. To win the ultimate 4th generation war, it is imperative to eliminate all the root causes and supporting environment to ensure that enemy has no moral ground to maneuver its tactics, hence denying a moral victory to enemy which is the ultimate goal of 4th generation warfare. During last 8 years, Pakistani leadership took some steps to gain higher moral ground. Recent example of such a move was peace deal in Swat before a comprehensive military operation against terrorists. Pakistan army and government got a high moral ground by signing that deal. TTP was exposed in the end to the masses along with all its atrocities in the name if Islam. But there were some severe mistakes where army lost its moral edge to terrorists. The drop scene of Lal Masjid operation in July 2007 was a major blow to Pakistan army in its anti-terrorism efforts and it provided an opportunity to hostile agencies to wage propaganda ops against Pakistan army, by getting sympathies of local masses and families of victims of this operation despite the fact most of the students in Lal Masjid got killed due to being used as human shield by the terrorists. Lal masjid was a classic operation where bad and poor perception and media management created a security crisis for the State and the armed forces later on. Counter insurgency in 4th generation warfare is the most complex task at hand. Every operation has different tactical planning and execution requirements, but Pakistan army and other forces must evaluate post operation circumstances particularly collateral damage with respect to ultimate strategic goal of 4th generation warfare i.e. winning a moral battle in every operation, denying any opportunity to hostile elements to launch psy-ops against Pakistani state or army. 11. Operation Rah-i-Rast in Swat, also a reminder of what can happen if a region is deprived of speedy justice for a long period of time. It has remained a dilemma in Pakistan that legal procedure in lower courts is haplessly non-existent denying the very justice for which the State exists. This has developed a reactionary approach in mass behavior in Pakistani society. Like Justice, development is also an integral part of a peaceful society. It is responsibility of civilian government to raise the infrastructure of insurgency affected areas so that people can restart social and economic activities in these areas. Cooperation of international donors and NGOs may be engaged on own terms in these rehabilitation efforts. The sooner these areas return to normalcy, the better it would be for overall law and order throughout the country. Along with infrastructure development, government must

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war. It is time for Pakistani security forces to start concentrating on applications of implantable GPS trackers to get exact location of a particular hostile entity.

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also take steps to revive lost businesses and jobs of the locals. 12. Education sector reforms are need of the hour. Absence of uniform educational structure throughout the country has produced various kinds of social and religious dogmas in the society, resultantly making national fabric more fragile instead of creating any national harmony which is a fundamental pillar of national stability and security. In recent insurgencies, it has become evident that a loose government control over various religious and private educational systems in Pakistan has created a sense of deprivation in one faction and superiority complex in another, and this vast gulf between these mindsets was successfully manipulated by the terrorist indoctrinators in the name of religion. So it is imperative that government take all necessary steps to make education in Pakistan uniform, for every faction of society. A strong over sight of religious schools is another area of urgent attention of government. It is time for government to present a model of educational institutes with a uniform general education standard throughout country to provide equal opportunities for all the students in practical life.

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Diplomatic Response
From recent developments in the region on terrorism, it is evident that a case against Pakistan is being prepared as a next staging area for any big terror attack anywhere in the world, particularly in India or US. This idea, of blaming Pakistan for being used by terrorists to recruit, train and send terrorists and to plan an attack on US or Indian soil, came from aggressive Indian diplomatic offenses in major capitals of the world. The supporting factor was Pakistan’s old defensive foreign policy. It is time for Pakistan to present a strong case at world forums regarding its efforts in combating terrorism and sufferings Pakistani nation has faced during this bloody war. Pakistan’s foreign policy needs a major overhaul in this regard. Pakistan must also reject “Do More”. 13. Pakistan must keep Samjootha express case and Indian atrocities on Kashmiris alive, in international community and media alike. Strong demand for inquiry into massacre of 59 innocent Pakistanis in Samjootha Express incident must be made and convened to all the capitals, through Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan must not abandon its slain citizens killed by cold blooded Indian fanatics. Kashmir is another strong moral case for Pakistan and it is time for Pakistan to end its lethargy over this important issue, and resurrect this case once again in international forums like UN. It has become more relevant in a nuclear overhang between Pakistan and India.
Lt Col Prasad Srikant Purohit (of Indian Army) an active member of Abhinav Bharat, a Hindu outfit and mastermind of Samjhoota Express incident in 2006. Prohit has been convicted for Malegaon blasts in 2008. Pakistani foreign office failed diplomatically to pick this matter of serving Indian army officer’s direct link with terrorist organization.

Along with these cases, Pakistan must keep vigilant over de-

14. Pakistan must build a strong case against India and her involvement in Pakistan, particularly in supporting terrorism in Baluchistan and FATA. Pakistan army has given proofs to government and the ball is in democratic government’s court to take the case to international forums like UN, where Pakistan can seek Chinese help in order to unearth Indian intentions against Pakistan and peace in the region. Recently, a serving Indian officer was convicted in Indian court for being mastermind of bombing in a Mosque in Malegaon, a village in India. This attack was first blamed on Pakistan and ISI. This case has provided a much needed opportunity to use it as a proof in diplomatic community to unleash the real face of terrorists serving in Indian army. 15. Pakistan has suffered some 40 billion dollars in war of terror against foreign funded, supported and backed 4thGW. Now it is up to government to make this fact realized and present to all the stakeholders in this war.

Propaganda Warfare
16. Strong media management is a fundamental requirement of 4th generation warfare. In recent years, Pakistan generally and Pakistan army particularly are targets of Indian and Western media outlets; to portray both as weak and non serious in combating insurgency and terror. Leading papers, websites, magazines in US and Western media are leaking stories to defame Pakistani military leadership and its commitment to its war against foreign funded terror, despite the fact that Pakistan army is the only force in the world that has lost its serving Generals in this war. All these stories are part of the bigger propaganda operation, to demoralize forces and leadership by overlooking sacrifices made by Pakistan army but this is one side of all this. In reality, this is lack of a strong media team on the part of Pakistan. As mentioned, in Diplomatic response section the recent revelations about involvement of Indian army’s serving officers in terrorism must be exposed forcefully in media. It is high time for Pakistani government to review its media policy with respect to 4th generation warfare. Pakistan still does not have a media policy which defines the roles, parameters, objectives, aims and goals of Pakistan’s media in support of ground operations or to counter the hostile Psy-ops. The terrorists still get air time on prime time media and army is still ridiculed and attacked both by politicians and media “analysts” for “fighting an American war” and killing “own people!”. India is still not blamed for supporting insurgencies in Pakistani territory. 17. Pakistani government must make sure that any media exchange agreement between Pakistan and India takes place on reciprocal basis. Indian channels are being allowed in Pakistan uninterruptedly but Pakistani channels are facing a strict ban in most parts of the India. In order to stop media invasion it is very necessary to expand footprint of Pakistani media in Indian territories.

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velopments in Mumbai case trial in Indian court. Recent developments in Mumbai case are also supportive to Pakistan’s cause. Now it is time for Pakistan to make strong demands of concluding trial of the case. Not only this, Pakistan must withstand international pressure from US and India and support Pakistani individuals convicted wrongly by the UN as terrorist; whereas in Pakistan, courts have failed to convict these individuals on the same information and evidence provided by India that were used in UN to convict these individuals.

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One of many info graphics created to alarm world about TTP taking over Pakistan. In the map above, one can see areas like Chitral, Shangla, Kohistan and D.I Khan never remained under Taliban control. Unfortunately, due to absence of a clear media policy Pakistani media failed to counter propaganda warfare by Western media.

Conclusion
As 4GW comprises of multiple axis and asymmetrical warfare, the solution to it can not be devised from one national institute. As 4GW is an evolving phenomenon, its solution must be out of box as well depending upon multiple factors- both conventional as well as non-conventional. Pakistan is at a critical crossroads in fighting 4GW terrorists. Although military operations have shown very encouraging results so far in Swat and FATA, but it must be understood by the civilian government that to convert these military gains into permanent peace, some desperate measures are imperative in areas hit by insurgency and counter- insurgency operations.

Afghan policy needs to be overhauled. From being a passive player, Pakistan now needs to be an aggressive and pro-active policy maker in Afghanistan. The crisis in Pakistan enters from Afghanistan. It is absolutely critical, that Pakistan controls the internal as well as security dynamics in that country. Indians have exploited the environment long enough. It’s time to nail Indian interests and assets in Afghanistan to end the military axis of 4GW against Pakistan. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Internal conflicts always have some root causes, and Pakistan is not an exception in this regard. It is a proven fact that unchecked foreign funding of some religious schools (Madrasas) in the past throughout the country, ever increasing poverty, ethnic intolerance, corruption etc. are some massive challenges the country is facing right now. Most worrying aspect of all these challenges is that all the related social and economical indicators are not showing any improvement. Unless the government takes some concrete steps in order to overcome socio-economic challenges in backward parts of the country, the threat of resurrection of similar insurgencies will keep prevailing, as poor socio-economics always made it easier for enemies to manipulate local masses for their own interests. Pakistan today faces two most critical cancers which are feeding the 4th GW against the State. ♦ ♦ Corruption Judicial collapse to put fear of God into the hearts of terrorists.

The system and the government have failed to address these two issues. The corruption feeds the bad governance, hopelessness, state failures and social disintegration. Lack of justice breeds terrorism, violence and social anarchy. If the present system cannot deliver, perhaps the right choice would be to change and replace the system before a complete and total victory against the 4thGW can be assured. A political, judicial and economic system is required, where corruption and terrorism are met with zero tolerance, even if that means adopting desperate and harshest means. If it takes that much to clean the mess, then let it be. ***************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, June 2010 (Vol 1 No. 1)

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For the last 5 years, Pakistani nation and state both have suffered due to weak and fragile foreign policy adopted by Musharraf regime and pursued by current government. This foreign policy of Pakistan has only served the interests of foreign powers or hostile nations like India who exploited internal conflicts of Pakistan at international level to defame Pakistan. A major overhaul in foreign policy is more than necessary, to bring an end to the ongoing master slave relationships between Pakistan and comity of nations. It is high time for Pakistan to draw some very visible red lines, which Pakistani state and nation will never cross while fighting terrorism as US ally in the region.

2 Hydrological War of India

Plans, Impact and Consequences

Farzana Shah

“If this moves forward, you'll see a reigniting of the water wars like you wouldn't believe.” - Steve Evans Background
During last decade Pakistan and India came on the brink of war many times but always restrained from initiating one, as better sense prevailed on both sides of the border. In 2004, a unilateral ceasefire on LOC (Line of Control) from Pakistan, paved the way for durable peace in the Sub-continent. It was envisaged, after initializing the peace process, that as both the countries are N-capable, so they are compelled to solve their bilateral issues on the table. But, courtesy of Indian aggressive water policy, these hopes of durable peace in the region are fading away with each passing day. Pakistan is on the brink of a water disaster as its availability has decreased to 1,200 cubic meters per person from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947, with a strong possibility of a further decrease of 800 cubic meters by 2020. This is an alarming situation and to make matters even worse, India already has and is still in the process of constructing a number ofhydro power projects, dams, reservoirs and barrages on Pakistani rivers in Kashmir. The dispute between Pakistan and India started in 1947 when a boundary commission, under the Chairmanship of Sir Cyril Radcliffe, was constituted for the demarcation of international boundaries in the states of the Punjab and Bengal. He awarded most of the canals and the canal irrigated lands to Pakistan, but the sources of all the five tributaries of the Indus, Jehlum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej remained in India. Thus, India continued to be the "upstream riparian" of the Indus and its tributaries. The situation is going to get worse if India is successful in completing all its projects on Pakistani rivers flowing in from Kashmir. Many international writers, analysts and thinkers have already rung the alarm bell while analyzing Pakistan’s future water, food and energy security, in the light of aggressive Indian plans regarding Pakistan’s water sources and the subsequent tactless responses from the successive Pakistani governments in Islamabad.

The root cause of this dispute between Pakistan and India can only be understood after an insightful analysis of its historical background and various provisions of Indus Water Treaty of 1960. Soon after the partition of the Sub-continent, the governments of both countries desired to extend irrigation on their respective sides of the border. Consequently, bilateral negotiations were held and a settlement was ultimately arrived at under the patronage of World Bank, and the Indus Water Treaty was signed in September, 1960.

Under this treaty, Pakistan received exclusive rights to use water from the three Western rivers – Indus, Jehlum and Chenab – with an assured flow of about 135 million acre-feet (MAF); whereas water from three Eastern rivers- Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, with an annual flow of 33 MAF was allocated to India. This treaty established a transition period up to 31st March 1970 for Pakistan to construct its systems of works, called Indus Basin Replacement Plan. Meanwhile, India was to continue supplying water to Pakistan to irrigate about 1.2 Mil-

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Indus River Basin

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lion hectare area before replacement works (two storage dams, five barrages, one siphon and eight link canal system) were to be completed. As a result, there is an impressive list of post independence irrigation works in the Pakistan.

History of Pak-India Water Dispute
Prior to independence, the British had started to establish a link canal system in various parts of the subcontinent. For this purpose,a number of headworks and canals were built and dams were envisioned. On April 1, 1948, India halted the supply of water to Pakistan from every canal flowing from India to Pakistan. Pakistan protested and India finally agreed on an interim agreement (Inter-Dominion Accord) on May 4, 1948. According to this arrangement, India was bound to release sufficient waters to the Pakistani regions of the basin in return for annual payments from the government of Pakistan. Surely, this agreement was not a permanent solution. By 1951, the dispute had taken a very dangerous turn as both countries were not negotiating with each other on this matter anymore and the threat of a possible war loomed dangerously; to avoid this, Pakistan approached the World Bank in 1952 to help break the deadlock and settle the problem permanently. Negotiations were held between the two countries through the offices of the World Bank, for six years (1954-60). It was finally during President Ayub Khan's regime that an agreement was signed between India and Pakistan in September 1960. This agreement is known as the Indus Water Treaty 1960.

Indus Water Treaty 1960 (IWT)
This treaty divided the use of rivers and canals between the two countries. Pakistan obtained exclusive rights to the three western rivers, namely Indus, Jehlum and Chenab, and India retained rights to the three eastern rivers, namely Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The treaty also guaranteed ten years of uninterrupted water supply to Pakistan. During this period Pakistan was to build major dams, financed partly by long-term World Bank loans and compensation money from India but India refused funds to Pakistan for this purpose; to this refusal, The Bank responded with a plan for external financing supplied mainly by the United States and the United Kingdom. Three multipurpose dams; Warsak, Mangla and Tarbela were built. A system of eight link canals was also built, and the remodeling of existing canals was carried out. Five barrages and a gated siphon were also constructed under this treaty.

Important provisions of IWT
1. India will have exclusive rights over Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) until they crossed into Pakistan. 2. Pakistan will have exclusive rights over Western Rivers (Chenab, Jehlum and Indus)

Historical picture of signing ceremony of Indus Water Treaty showcasing President Islamic republic of Pakistan, Ayub Khan, Indian Prime minister Jawhar Lal Nehru and World Bank representative.

3. India will be allowed to use Western River waters for non-consumption use only (excluding irrigation and storage). 4. India will make a one time payment to Pakistan for loss of its water of Eastern Rivers. 5. A transition period till 31st March 1970, will be maintained by both sides so that Pakistan can build its link canal system to divert water from its Western Rivers to Eastern Rivers through these canals. 6. Both sides will avoid constructing any structure,which can change natural course of water. 7. Both sides will be responsible for maintaining Indus basin by adopting best practices available. 8. India will be bound to inform Pakistan about the design of any work on the Western rivers well ahead of time. 9. If India does construct any work on the Western Rivers, it will supply water downstream that would be received by a dam or barrage within 24 hours.

Indian Plans for Pakistani Rivers
IWT was a treaty heavily in favour of India as it got unrestricted allocation of Eastern Rivers and some limited allocation on Western Rivers along with permission to complete under-construction dams and reservoirs, these included Mahora, Ganderbal, Kupwara, Bhadarwah, Kishtwar, Rajouri, Chinani Nichalani, Banihal etc. Pakistan accepted the accord as there were still guarantees and criteria to ensure water availability to Pakistan and this was perceived as the last chance for settling the dispute peacefully. At present, India is aggressively working on the strategy to make Pakistan barren in the coming years. To

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achieve this aim, sheis manipulating the provisions of IWT1960 cleverly, and is in process of building multiple dams and barrages, blatantly breaching the requirements of the treaty. The aim is to damage the link canal system of Pakistan by blocking water in one season and to destroy ready crops in the other season by releasing excessive waters through these dams and barrages. Diversion of water, through tunnels, is also a disturbing practice carried out by India during recent years. Below are the details of some of the current and proposed Indian projects on the Western rivers. These details clearly showcase Indian intentions regarding the water flow towards Pakistan.

Chenab
India has already built 14 hydroelectric plants on Chenab River and is building more plants, which will enable it to block the entire water flow of Chenab for approximately 20-25 days. Chenab River provides water to 21 canals and irrigates about 7 million acres of agricultural land in Punjab province. Baglihar Dam Baglihar Dam is located near Doda, on river Chenab. According to the Indus Water Treaty,this river belongs to Pakistan. Baglihar dam is 143 meters (470 feet) high, equal to world’s largest rockfilled dam at Tarbela, Pakistan. The Dam also houses gated spillways to control the flow of water. Pakistan has time and again reminded India about its reservations and concerns regarding this project. But instead of taking Pakistani concerns into consideration, India continued construction of Baglihar dam even after the matter was taken up in World Bank for arbitration. Pakistan voiced following concerns regarding the design of the dam: ♦ Height of Dam: Height of freeboard (The vertical distance between the top of the dam and the full supply level on the reservoir) of dam must be reduced as it is in excess of designed parameter of dam. ♦ Gated spillways: India must abandon gated spillways design as it will enable India to block water flow for extended time. Project must be a true run of river scheme. ♦ Poundage /Storage: Storage capacity of reservoir of dam must be reduced so that flow of river is
A view of Massive gated spillways at Baglihar dam. Height of dam also suggested that this dam is built basically as a reservoir and not for just power generation as India is telling the world. One opened gate of spillways tells how much water can be blocked behind all gates of spillways.

Massive tunnel built to divert River water to under-ground power station at Baglihar Dam.

An ariel view of massive Baglihar dam after completion. The Dam caused damage of Rs.23 billion to Pakistani agriculture in 2008 alone.

not interrupted. World Bank expert, Raymond Lafitte, approved the project in February 2007 but asked India to reduce height of the freeboard by 1.5 meters. Apart from this, reduction in poundage of reservoir, from the Indian claimed 38 million cubic meters (MCM) to 32 million cubic meters, was also directed. Pakistan had asked for a reduction to 6.22 MCM, but this, as well as allother objections were rejected. During 2008 Rabi sowing season (Jan-Mar), Pakistan suffered a loss of more than 20 billion rupees due to water shortage in Chenab. Not only that but production of Wheat crop along with other crops like Rice, Cotton also got affected due to low water in canals originating from Chenab. Financial Viability of this project shows how India is determined to cut flow of Pakistani rivers from Kashmir. Per MW cost of electricity from Baglihar is Rs 8.89 Crore, which is highest in India.This is due to the increased cost of the project, which was initially thought to be Rs 27 Billion but ended up to be more than Rs 40 billion. Despite this surge in cost, India never showed any hesitation to undertake this enterprise. Hydrologic viability of the dam is another gauge of Indian intentions behind this project. After commissioning the second phase of Baglihar, total electricity output will be 900 MW. Question here is,for how many days in a year the dam would be able to generate power at that rate? In its May 2005 issue, ‘Dams, Rivers & People’ reported, “It will require 860 cumecs of water (to generate 900 MW), but Chenab flow reduces much belowthat in winter. In fact flow in Chenab reduced to up to 50 cumecs. The authorities have not made public the hydrologic data or the projected power generation from the project. The experience of the existing 690 MW Salal project on Chenab and 480 MW Uri HEP on the adjoining basin Jhelum shows that these projects, in fact, generate much less power in winter when the demand for power reaches maximum in J&K.” So it is evident that purpose of the dam, electrical station, reservoir and gated spillways, is much more sinister than what meets the eye.

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Salal Dam This dam was built on River Chenab in 1987 and was commissioned in 1993. It is built downstream of Baglihar. Water discharging downstream of Baglihar reaches Salal. It is a medium sized dam with height of 113 meters and it has a reservoir level of 494 meters. India has always claimed that hydro projects in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) are for the population of Jammu and Kashmir but according to official sources of National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), main contractor and builder of many dams in India and Kashmir including Salal dam, electricity generated by Salal project will be provided toPunjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, and the union territory of Chandigarh.

Aerial view of Salal dam built near Jammu on River Chenab. Most noticeable is the dry bed of river just after the dam, meaning no discharge of water downstream towards Pakistan. This act is a clear violation of Indus Water Treaty signed in 1960 as India can only built hydro power projects adopting run-of-river methodology, without interrupting/blocking/diverting flow of water in the three Western rivers and Chenab is one of these three rivers.

As always, India told the world and Pakistan that this project is built adopting run-of-river method (without any reservoir) but the image below, taken from Google Maps, clearly exposes a reservoir and blocked water flow of Chenab. Dul Hasti Located in Kishtwar district, this Hydro-electric power project comprises of a “diversion dam” at ‘Dul’ across the river Chenab and a power house at ‘Hasti’. Test runs began in 2007.The dam was initiated by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, way back in 1983. It was finally commissioned in April 2008, after 25 years of its inception. Once again built in Kashmir, the dam will benefit other states including Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,

Downstream side of Dul dam in Kashmir. India is busy in building multiple dams on Western Rivers, which belong to Pakistan according to IWT1960. Chenab is the biggest victim of Indian water aggression on which 8 dams are being built.

An older picture of Dul dam. In this picture river diversion work is underway. Diversion of any one of Western rivers is a clear violation of IWT 1960.

Uttaranchal, Rajasthan and Chandigarh while Jammu and Kashmir will have mere 12% of royalty of the project. Concrete gravity dam of 185 m length and 65 m height has an ungated spillway of 40 m and a gated spillway of 64 m with 4 radial gates. Again gated spillways are there just to stop flow of water to Pakistan. The construction of this dam also reveals how committed India is to render Pakistan barren. The initial cost of the dam was an estimated Rs 183 crore (in 1983) but due to delays the project cost climbed up to 5228 crore. This amounts to a 28 times increase in cost but still India completed this project and commissioned it on April 26, 2008. Statistically, war is the only other exercise where any government would allocate so much resources and time on a single project. Tawi-Ravi Link River Tawi is a major left bank tributary of Chenab. It also flows into Pakistan along with Chenab and finally joins the latter. To steal river Tawi’s water, India built a lift irrigation scheme on the left bank of Tawi River. Main elements of this scheme are an uplift pump near Bahu fort in Jammu city and a canal system, which joins another canal, Ravi-Link canal, near Vijaypur. Ravi Link Canal is connected to the right bank of river Ravi. To send water into Tawi canal system, uplift water pumps lift water 31 meters higher from river level and put it into the canal from where it is sent to Ravi-Link Canal so that India can use this water in Ravi.

Future Plans of India on Chenab
Recently, India has pushed her nefarious designs even further. All the afore mentioned dams were not adequate enough for the realization of her vicious agenda, so more dams and reservoirs have been planned on river Chenab according to the next five year development programme. Below are the details of these projects.

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PakDul& other Chenab Basin Projects PakalDul and two other projects aggregating to about 2100 MW in Chenab Basin are proposed to be implemented through a Joint Venture Company in pursuance to MoU, signed on 10.10.2008. According to Indian ministry of water, PakalDul (Drangdhuran) Hydroelectric Project is envisioned as a reservoir based scheme proposed on river Marusudar, the main right bank tributary of river Chenab in Kishtwar Tehsil of Doda District in Jammu & Kashmir. This is again a violation of IWT. The Project envisages construction of a concrete face, rockfilled dam across river Marusudar at village Drangdhuran and an underground Powerhouse at a location 2 km upstream of Dul dam, near village Trimuli. At Full Reservoir Level, the gross storage of the reservoir is 125.4 MCM. This project will cost India more than Rs. 5500 Crore. After Baglihar, it will be interesting to see what impact an even higher dam will have on the flow of Chenab, and this is the first time India has unabatedly announced the construction ofa reservoir based dam. The capacity of the reservoir is another indication of how big this would be after completion. Baglihar with its 32 MCM can reduce flow of 7000 cusecs to Pakistan, it is much easier to understand the impact a reservoir with a capacity of 125.4 MCM would have on downstream flow of the river. Environmentally, this project can prove to be an ecological disaster, as most of its submerged area will consists of forests and agricultural lands. Submergence of forest land leads to loss of bio diversity and habitat destruction of wildlife, on the other hand submergence of agriculture land as well as dwellings would require rehabilitation of ousted people. The Bursar Hydroelectric Project To complete the agenda of blocking water of Chenab, Indians have stepped up their plans, mainly encouraged by the flawed and delayed response and quietness of Pakistani governments regarding this immensely serious issue. India wants a reservoir based dam upstream to all other dams i.e. PakalDul, Dul Hasti, Rattle, Baglihar, Sawalkot and Salal Hydroelectric Projects, thereby enhancing the potential of all downstream schemes in winter season, as Chenab’s flow is reduced to a large extent in winter. India would need enough water to feed the other downstream dams.Those dams would also store water hence blocking the entire flow of Chenab in winter season when Pakistani farmers sow wheat.This purpose would be served by the Bursar Hydroelectric Project, and this too is going to be a reservoir based dam. According to Indian claims, this will mitigate the shortage of water availability in the river during the winter months. But this dam just like PakalDul will be built on Marusudar, a major right bank tributary of Chenab. PakalDul dam itself will have a storage capacity of 125 MCM and above that will be Bursar, a 252m high rockfilled dam; these two dams will give India total control over this major tributary of Chenab.

Jehlum
Jehlum is second in the list of Western Rivers, which were given to Pakistan according to IWT in 1960. Indian plans to block water of Pakistani rivers are not just restricted to Chenab. Jehlum is the next target of Indian

On Chenab, Indians are busy building dams with excessive poundage capacities while on Jehlum, plans are more in line with diversion of water from Jehlum and its tributaries so that flow of river can be reduced when it crosses into Pakistan. Wullar Barrage / Tulbul Navigation Project This barrage is going to be built on river Jehlum near mouth of Wullar Lake near Sopore town in Kashmir. Wullar is the largest fresh water lake in the whole Jammu and Kashmir.Pakistan gave it the name according to the design of the project i.e. Wullar Barrage because Barrages are built mainly to divert water from rivers into canals for irrigation or link purposes.India on the other hand, once again to deceive everybody, calls it Tulbul Navigation Project. India has no such provision on Jehlum under IWT. This barrage was purposed in 1984 when tension between Pakistan and India was on high level. Most projects built on Western rivers were conceived in 1980s. India claims that this barrage will make Jehlum navigable. But the fact is that it would be used as a geo-strategic weapon to manipulate flow of water specifically in winter. This proposed barrage will eventually have the potential to destroy the entire triple canal system which Pakistan built after IWT was signed. This system includes major canals, which irrigate millions of acres in Punjab and consists of larger canals like Upper Jehlum Canal, Upper Chenab Canal, Lower Bari Doab Canal and all the smaller secondary and tertiary canals originating from these. According to the original Indian plan, Map showing location of various hydro projects on Jehlum River the barrage was expected to be of 439feet long and 40-feet wide, and would have a maximum storage capacity of 0.30 million acres feet of water. What India has done to Pakistan with Baglihar dam, there is no reason to believe what India is telling the world about this project. World Bank did fail Pakistan on this project as well and could not force India to abandon the project when the matter was referred to it in 1986. Eventually Pakistan was forced to knock at the door of International Arbitral Court in 1987 when India was forced to stop further construction work. Wullar Barrage is one of the agenda item in composite dialogue between Pakistan and India and after multiple rounds there is no progress as usual due to Indian persistence that this project is lawful under IWT.

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hydrological warfare. Indian schemes on this river are more impudent and will violate IWT much more viciously.

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Kishan Ganga Once again India named the project so that real intension can be concealed. Kishan Ganga project is going to be a dam on river Neelam, known as Kishan Ganga in Indian Held Kashmir.Geologically it is an extremely complex project as it will have a 27 km long tunnel to divert water of Neelam from its natural course, which is a clear violation of IWT. This tunnel will join Jehlum in South through North Kashmir mountain range. Thetunnel will initiate and take water from a 103 meter high reservoir on river Neelam. This reservoir is also part of the project and will submerge almost the entire Gurez valley along the AJK'sNeelum valley. For India, any ecological disaster is a minor event to take into consideration, when it comes to blocking or diverting Pakistan’s water, so these concerns were never entertained by New Delhi. The plan is to change the course of river Neelam about 100 km from its natural course and join it to Jehlum at Wullar Lake near Bandipur. Presently, Neelam and Jhelum rivers join each other at Muzaffarabad at a point called Domail. Through proposed Wullar barrage project, India claims to maintain constant yearly flow in Jhelum but in reality this 100 KM long diversion of the Neelum River would turn Neelum Valley on Pakistani side into a desert. According to some estimates, the diversion will also reduce the flow of water into Pakistan, from 25% to 33%. Furthermore, it will ruin Pakistan’s Neelum-Jehlum project as water of Neelam will be diverted from its natural course and power generation capacity of the project will be reduced to such an extent that the sole purpose of the project would die. Blueprints and technical stipulations for this project were finalized in 1997 and WAPDA selected this project in 2001 for execution under its Vision 2025.
A view of starting point of 27 km long tunnel which will be used to divert water of river Neelam (Kishanganga) and join it with Jehlum, atWullar Barrage before it crosses into Pakistan.

India is going to complete this project after a gap of 18 years and the cost has gone up by 68% than what was estimated at the time of its inception.

India wants to gain control over Neelam and that’s why she has decided to initiate work on the project in 2008 setting the completion date as January 2016. Although the matter is disputed between the two countries, but Indian intentions are to exploit that condition in IWT, which allows control over Neelam’s water to the country that completes its project first.In 2008, Indian minister for water affairs, JairamRameshsaid, “This project is of strategic importance to India. We will shortly take the revised cost estimates of Rs 3,700 crore ($928 million) for the project for the cabinet’s approval. We have to move heaven and earth to ensure the earliest commissioning of the project.” This statement must be an eye opener for anyone who still has any doubt about the Indian plans to make Pakistan barren in the near future.

Pakistan has filed a case against this project in International court of Arbitration. Both countries have nominated two global experts each to assist the court on this issue. URI Power Project Uri hydro power project is the next dam on a Pakistani river.Uri is a town on the river Jehlum in the Baramula district, in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir. The town is in close proximity of the LoC. This project consists of a 52 m high and 152 m long dam with 4 spillways. India claims that the purpose of the project was to generate cheap electricity from run of river project. In reality this project is already causing many problems to locals and to the ecosystem as well. According to Jan 2006 issue of ‘Dams, Rivers and People’, it was expected to generate at full output almost continuously only for five months of the year (April-Aug) with production falling to lower levels in the winter months. Further, it was stated that the project has cost 98% more than the initial estimates, meaning doubling the cost of power generated and yet it performed 27% less than what was envisaged since its commissioning in 199697. NHPC, the company that built the dam, admitted in 2004-05 that URI is a non peaking station and the result is low performance as well as the cost of electricity of this project is too high to buy for the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Uri project was executed without a proper plan for compensating the people affected by it. Compensation issues remain unresolved even after more than eight years of completion of the project. Instead of learning some lesson from its mistakes made in Uri-I, India has announced to undertake Uri-II hydro power project which will be built downstream to Uri-I.

Upstream and reservoir on Uri-I Hydro power project on Jehlum near town of Uri.

Downstream of Uri-I dam on Jehlum river.

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This project would pose a serious threat to wildlife in and around Wullar Lake and also affect people who live on banks of Neelam and utilize its water for daily usage. Even environmentalists in India have objected to the project. The other problem is silt of Jehlum.

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According to NHPC, this Project is planned immediately downstream of Uri-I and will pick up its tail water to make use of the gross head of about 130m available in the course of the river between Uri-I tailrace outlet and a place located about 1.25 km downstream of the confluence of Goalta Nallah and Jehlum River, close to the Line of Control (LoC). It is strange to go for such a project, which is located at the line of fire despite the failure of Uri-I which already has destroyed another old 1962 built Mohra HEP of 9 MW,as URI diverts all the water from upstream of this project. Now this must come as no surprise as to why, after so many failures in a project, India has given a go-ahead of its extension at the same location. India is very carefully choosing spots on Western Rivers so that it can block the flow of water. These spots are located in the areas where rivers flow very low in winter season. Even small and medium size dams on these spots will enable India to manipulate water flow if it is so desired.

Indus
Indus is the largest river in Pakistan and largest of all three Western rivers which were allocated to Pakistan in IWT in 1960. It originates from China and reaches the Jammu and Kashmir region, flows there and then crosses into the Northern areas of Pakistan, takes its natural turn towards south in NWFP and continues for almost 1700 kilometers towards south, passing from Punjab and Sindh, before it finally falls into the Arabian Sea. River Indus is fed by nine Himalayan glaciers and number of tributaries also initiate from Himalayan ranges. Although Indus and its tributaries belong to Pakistan as per IWT but India has begun to build dams (work on minimum three is underway) on Indus main and its tributaries to interrupt flow before it crosses into Pakistan. According to media reports, theIndian Parliament has approved construction of 500 km long train track from Hamachel Pradesh to Ladakh which will be utilized for transportation of construction material for Kargil Dam and three other reservoirs being built on the Indus River. Below are the details of dams Indians are building on Indus in violation of IWT; Nimoo Bazgo NimooBazgo is 57 m (187 feet) high Concrete Gravity Dam which is under construction on main Indus river. Main site is located 70 km from Leh and work is already underway. Once again Indian claims are that this is a run-on-river scheme but looking at average availability of water in the river in winter, it is hard to believe that this is a hydro power project. Indians initiated this dam in November 2006 and completion is planned in October 2010. The dam is being built on a location where seven sub watersheds join Indus main and it is going to face a problem of muck due to geology of the site. The Area is highly non forest, so nothing will stop water from brining mud along with water which will possibly stop water flow altogether. India seems to be in a hurry to complete this project so a massive work force is deployed on the site and almost 90 percent of the work has been completed.

Location of NimooBazgo dam near Alchi village in Ladakh valley.

Work is in progress on Indus Main on NimooBazgo site.

India is spending Rs. 6.11 Billion just to create 45 MW of electricity and that will only be possible if the power station works on full capacity, which is not possible in winter when glaciers stop melting altogether. The Dumkhar Following the pattern of building multiple dams on western rivers in single area, which was adopted on Chenab, India is perusing its plan very courageously for Indus as well and there has been an urgency in this drive since the last year or so. After Nimoo-Bagzo, India’s next dam will be some 48 km downstream i.e. Dumkhar hydro power project, located 128 Km from Leh near Dumkhar village. The Dumkhar project is envisaged as a 42 m high concrete gravity dam across the Indus. This dam will also house two diversion tunnels although the project is a run on river but still diversion tunnels will affect the flow of water particularly in winter season. Again no data is provided by the Indian authorities about the reservoir and type of discharge spillways (gated or ungated) Chutak Hydroelectric Project Just like tributaries of Chenab, Indian belligerence is once again evident by Chutak dam, which India is building on river Suru. River Suru is one of the major Indus river tributaries. The barrage of the project is located near Sarzhe Village and the power house will be located on the right bank of river Suru near Chutak Village. The Project is located near Kargil airfield of Indian Air Force.

Other Issues
Internationalising Water warfare against Pakistan After blocking its water in Kashmir by building multiple dams on Pakistani rivers, now India has taken this water war beyond bilateral level. Currently, due to the changed geo political environment, India has developed strong relations with Afghanistan. By harnessing these relations, India is persuading Afghan government to

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build a big dam on river Kabul so that its flow to Indus River in Pakistan can be blocked. Afghanistan at present utilizes just a fraction of river Kabul waters to irrigate about 12,000 acres of land. According to new proposed plans a dam will be constructed on the Kabul River to utilize 0.5 MAF water to irrigate additional 14,000 acres. Any dam on Kabul River will affect its flow into Indus especially in winter as Indus emits from glaciers, which melt less in winter and some of these glaciers don’t melt in winter season at all. Indian plans don’t end here. This is just the beginning of a very troublesome water policy by India towards Pakistan. Below is a list of Indian planned dams on Pakistani rivers. All these dams along with completed projects will enable India to block Pakistani water for a considerably long period of the time. Planneddams / Barrages on Pakistani Rivers According to Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd, following projects will also be built on Pakistani rivers. Jhelum River Basin ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Lower Jehlum Upper Sindh-I Ganderbal Upper Sindh-II Pahalgam Karnah

Chenab Basin ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Chenani-I Chennai-II Chenani-III Bhaderwah Baglihar-II

Map of Jammu and Kashmir, showing location of different Indian dams on Indus, Jehlum and Chenab and their tributaries.

Indus Basin ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Iqbal Hunder Sumoor Igo-Mercellong Haftal Marpachoo BazgoStakna (with J&KPDD)

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Impact on Pakistan of Indian dams in Kashmir
♦ Apart from huge storage capacities of above mentioned dams, time of their filling is also a deep concern for Pakistan. For example, Baglihar Dam can block 7000 cusecs of water per day for almost a month as per Indian wishes. Storage of water in Baglihar Dam reduced the flow of water in Chenab River during the sowing period of August to October 2008 and badly affected the agriculture sector of Pakistan. Pakistan lost 23000 cusecs of water; farmers could not irrigate their fields due to shortage of water and resultantly 3.5 million agriculture tracts got barren. The standing cotton, paddy crops of basmati rice of Kharif season in Punjab got badly affected because of absence of water. The sowing of next crop of wheat in September-October also got affected and so was the case with Rabi crop in January-February last year due to reduced flow of water. The Baglihar Dam together with DulHasti and other dams can plainly diminish the flow of Chenab during the vital Rabi crop-sowing season (January and February). ♦ Both countries have allocated resources and have shown will to fight with time to gain control over Neelam. For Pakistan it is a matter of survival, once control over Neelam is lost, life of Mangla dam would be at risk and the whole investment made on Neelam-Jehlum project will go to waste. ♦ In the worst case scenario, agriculture and electricity aside, Indian blockade of Pakistani water will tear apart Pakistani social fabric as there will be a severe reduction in productivity and millions of people will be deprived of food and water. Riots in large cities and towns will ensue and a severe law and order situation will erupt in the country. Such incidents with less intensity have already taken place in Pakistan against constant load shedding of electricity. Trains and other public infrastructure were set on fire in some cities, roads were blocked in others and thousands of employees lost their jobs. This impact will intensify manifold in case of water scarcity. Millions of people in Punjab, NWFP and Sindh are directly or indirectly related to agriculture sector. These people will be the worst victims as the result of no agriculture productivity. Those not directly related to agriculture will also be affected, as supplies of edibles into markets will be reduced drastically. The country will plunge into battles, riots and quarrels over food and water like many African countries. ♦ India in the past has released excessive water into rivers crossing into Pakistan resulting in severe floods in NWFP, Punjab and some parts of Sindh as well. The flood of 1992 is one such example when India released excessive water into Ravi River, which badly affectedmany districts in Punjab in general, and Narowal district in particular. Other than floods there are multiple concerns over Indian plans vis-à-vis Pakistani interest : ♦ In May 2009, Chairman Indus Water Council Pakistan and Coordinator World Water Assembly,Zahoorul Hassan Daher said, “Indian water terrorism posed more serious threat to Pakistan than Taliban”. He said the pace with which India was diverting Pakistani rivers, days are not far off when country would face the situa-

♦ Indian water aggression will destroy local industry and agriculture. A trailer of this horror movie has already been played during Rabi season last year when India started to fill Baglihar dam despite knowledge of sowing season in Pakistan. With even larger dams, India will be able to stop Pakistani water for the entire season which will destroy linked canal system of Pakistan. ♦ In case any of these dams collapses or large quantity of water is deliberately released, it will not only endanger our proposed Diamir-Bhasha Dam but also submerge Skardu city and airport and KKH between Besham and Jaglot will wash away.

Dams Despite Problems…Why?
The most fascinating aspect of Indian water aggression is that India has a poor record of dam safety. Many projects after or during the execution have run into serious technical hazards: Two persons died and a dozen were injured when a tunnel of the prestigious DulHasti hydro project collapsed on January 29th 2007. The incident took place a day before the National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC) was scheduled to carry out a trial run. Most of the dams in Jammu and Kashmir are facing threats of excessive silting and muck. Dams planned and built in nonforest areas will face this problem more often. Other than that, there is not a single hydro power project in Jummu and Kashmir that will run on its peak capacity. The only comprehendible reason behind the massive Indian investment on these dams in J&K, is to put a water tab on Pakistani rivers so that India can manipulate water as a strategic weapon in the future. Situation in Pakistan India is executing a massive plan of hydro power plants in Kashmir using Pakistani waters. Electricity produced from these rivers will be provided to all neighboring states of Jammu and Kashmir whereas the situation in Pakistan is really dispiriting when one looks at hydro projects in Pakistan. Pakistan could not build any big reservoir after Mangla and Tarbela dams. No new barrage was constructed either, to increase the area under cultivation. Population increase over the years has made the situation worrisome for planners to allocate adequate per capita energy and food resources. Long prevailing ineptness of Islamabad on Indian water aggression since the last Eight years has posed itself as an invitation for Indians to adopt an aggressive water policy against Pakistan. The previous government criminally delayed referring the matter of Baglihar Dam to the World Bank. The current government has gone a step further in compromising critical water issue. According to media reports, On 1 June 2010, Government of Pakistan has agreed to the Indian demand of ‘not raising issue of Baglihar Dam anymore’. This news is troublesome, as India has already announced to begin work on Baglihar II. Surrendering to Indian demands would only make it easier for India to carry out Baglihar II without any legal problems, which Pakistan otherwise could create by taking Baglihar II into World Bank at the right time. Currently, Pakistan has 40,000 MW hydro Power potential on river Indus alone, while combined estimate

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tion like Somalia, Ethiopia and Chad.

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of whole Indus basin river system surpasses the figure of 70,000 MW. The pity is that only 5000 MW is being produced at present, which is merely 12.5% of total potential. ThusPakistan is facing severe shortage of power. However, power crisis is not the only curse of poor management and short sightedness of successive governments in Islamabad. By looking at current trends of population growth, another crisis of water and food insecurity is in the making. According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Pakistan is among the countries facing severe food-insecurity due to governance and abuses and the number of food-insecure districts has been doubled since 2003. The above situation presents a very bleak picture of water, food and energy security of the country. Some drastic steps will have to be taken. Some policy recommendations are given below in this regard.

Policy Recommendations
In present circumstances, Pakistan will have to adopt a multi pronged strategy to overcome water shortage and to avoid inevitable food crisis in the country. The reason behind water crisis in Pakistan is twofold. India is blocking and diverting Pakistani waters and on the other hand Pakistani governments have failed to address the issue of water security due to shortsightedness and poor governance. So a comprehensive approach comprising of many concurrent measures is required to ensure three things: 1. India cannot block/divert Pakistani water 2. Pakistan has adequate water reservoirs to irrigate lands 3. Pakistan exploits maximum hydel power potential of Indus Basin System To achieve these three major objectives below are some recommendations: ♦ Water security must be an integral part of Pakistan’s defense policy. To make sure that Pakistani rivers (Indus, Chenab, Jehlum, Nelam) keep flowing normally, Pakistan must utilize every possible means ranging from legal to military. ♦ Pakistan must declare its response in case India tries to divert or block Pakistani water in Kashmir. Parliament and military brass must form a uniform and cohesive policy in the face of this existential threat. ♦ An aggressive and principle position must be taken at global level on water issue with India. It must be told on every international forum possible that consequences of Indian water belligerence towards Pakistan will be catastrophic. ♦ After Baglihar experience, Pakistan must have no doubt about Indian intentions towards Pakistani rivers flowing from Kashmir. Pakistan needs real time imagery satellite to monitor its rivers in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) and Indian activities on these rivers. So more funds for scientific research and development are recommended here. For interim bases, friendly countries like China can be approached to get satellite imagery of Western Rivers. There are reports that India has stolen water from Indus via a tunnel. Such activities

♦ To ensure water availability, even in a drought, Pakistan must adopt a realistic approach to build artificial lakes and reservoirs in mountainous areas of NWFP and Baluchistan. This approach is not expensive and would also serve the purpose of having huge reservoirs to conserve water. Apart from mountains, these kinds of lakes can be made in some regions of Punjab and Sindh to store flood water. Baluchistan has lots of spots for similar projects as well. Deepening the river beds at selected areas, is another option to build inexpensive but reliable water reservoirs. ♦ Power generation by hydro power plants must be encouraged at all levels and government must set a clear target of building specific number of dams to fulfill the needs of energy and irrigation and also to reduce oil export bill, which currently is being paid due to thermal power plants. ♦ To make up for the loss of last three decades, Pakistan needs, more than one, big dams. But Pakistan badly needs one big dam urgently and Kalabagh dam is one such project, which can fulfill the needs of the country. Political parties must constitute a team and must review objections of Sindh and NWFP provinces on this project and must come up with a workable solution instead of criminally neglecting themost important project, as current government in Islamabad has done. ♦ An aggressive policy should be adopted on funding problems for Diamir-Basha dam as it is the only big reservoir for which complete political consensus exists.Government must also approach friendly countries like China, UAE immediately as World Bank and Asian Development bank have failed to provide finances for the project. ♦ Parliament must define a maximum threshold time period, based on estimates of population growth and increase in local demand, after this it must become necessary for ruling government to initiate at least one large reservoir in the country. ♦ Reports suggest that some Rs 537 billion external assistance is expected for Indian planned projects on Jehlum and Indus Rivers. This is a clear case of international hypocrisy as World Bank denounced any aid for Pakistani dam on Indus in Northern Areas (Diamir-Basha, Bonji etc) under the pretext of these dams being located in a disputed area. Fact is, all Indian dams in Jammu and Kashmir are also in disputed area since the whole region is disputed as per UNO between Pakistan and India. How come India can get massive foreign assistance for hydro projects in Kashmir if Pakistan can’t get similar assistance for similar projects in its own Northern Area? Pakistan foreign office must take up this matter with international donors. An awareness campaign must be launched in local and international media to highlight this duality by international donors. ♦ Kashmir is sensitive for both India and Pakistan and without any local support India will try to avoid war in this sector but will use every possibility to damage Pakistani agriculture sector by blocking waters and would try to maintain her peaceful posture in international community by propaganda. To counter this Pakistani government must take local people of project sites into confidence as India has already launched massive propaganda mission against proposed dam in Gilgit and Baltistan. ♦ Pakistan must rush to approach International Court of Justice for its share of water, which India blocked in 2008 by Baglihar dam and which is very probable in the near future as well.

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can only be monitored in real time surveillance using satellite technology.

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End Notes
All the figures and facts described in reports were gathered from following sources; ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Ministry of Power, Govt. ofIndia Ministry of water, Govt. ofIndia National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC), Govt. of India Jammu and Kashmir State Power Development Corporation Ltd, India Water and Power Development Authority, (WAPDA) Govt. of Pakistan World Bank ************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, July 2010 (Vol. 1 No. 2)

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3 Energy Crisis & Food Security
Devising a Social Collapse in Pakistan
Farzana Shah

In modern history, due to various reasons, the economic power of any state defines her strength and sovereignty. The world powers are too sensitive about their energy security and for the very same reason opt even for the most risky modus operandi like going to war in a country like Afghanistan in order to keep the energy safeguard in place. Afghanistan is neither an energy hub nor does it house any port for the export of energy resources of the region but its role is of a conduit and a very critical one. All the energy corridors pass through this country. The center of gravity of the ongoing Great Game in the region is also related to energy and energy corridors. The entire restive scenario in the world involves major energy battles as well. Afghanistan was ravaged by war because one major energy sector giant was not allowed to expand by the then Afghan government. All major global players have been vying for the control of the energy resources since decades now. This has played a major role in their economic and military development as well. Economic collapse was a major cause for the Russian demise as she had no access to major energy corridors. Recently, the US has indulged in a prolonged and costly war to secure the energy resources along with capturing all the corridors for the transportation of these resources. The Energy department is the integral part of the US strategic planning institutes. China is the second player in the energy ergy corridors through is pursuing a long term ports and bases in the retries’ coastal lines. The increase with the passage of is still expanding. Energy is the manufacturing house of Asia with most strategically active arena. To secure her enthe Indian Ocean, China strategy of building naval gion on the friendly counChinese energy needs would time as its industrial complex basic requirement for this giant a population of over one billion.

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India is among the growing economies of the world and the third most active player in this game as well. The Indian long term economic policy is extremely aggressive both at the regional and global axes; derived by a fanatical idea of becoming one of the major global power players, she is competing with the developing countries and the established economies of the region simultaneously. India has to provide energy to her entire populace along with keeping its industrial growth on track. Therefore, she cannot afford to meet these massive demands through imported energy. Feeding one billion people is another issue for India and being an agro-based country, water requirements are also on the rise with increase in population.

Regional Trends
As the geostrategic developments in this part of the world are completely unpredictable so every regional player is busy in planning to exploit the domestic energy potential to its maximum. Importing foreign oil and gas is also among major trends to keep the economic growth momentum going. India and China are major regional competitors in the energy sector and both are leading the regional progress and development race as well. The only reason that they are sustaining it is the consistent investment in the energy infrastructure along with robust long term energy policies. China has been sustaining a 10% growth rate since the last three decades which has turned it into the world’s third largest economy after the US and Japan. Hydro energy is the most economical means for getting clean energy. India, China, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are working ceaselessly to harness this resource. The Chinese are leading the race of hydro power production as well. How aggressive the Chinese are in their hydro energy ambitions can be gauged by a simple

fact that the total installed capacity of power generation is around 20,000 MW. This includes both hydro and non-hydal means; in China, 3-gorges dam alone has a capacity of producing 22,500 MW. It is the world’s largest hydro power project. China is also in the process of constructing other large hydro power plants. Six out of the world’s 20 largest hydro power plants are located in China already. India is also building hydropower plants on the every river in their country. Indian water and energy policies demonstrate how water and energy would play a major role in the future geopolitical and geostrategic reshaping of the region. Apart from completing hydro projects for her economic needs, Indians have come up with a vicious plan to use water as a strategic weapon against Pakistan by exploiting the IWT. Indian water aggression has far reaching strategic implications for Pakistan. It has added a whole new dimension to an already tense and volatile environment of the region. Both the countries are already at war with each other on the legal and diplomatic axes over this issue. Keeping in view the pace of construction of the Indian hydro projects on Pakistani rivers, it is evident that a physical engagement is not too far as well on this matter. But India is not the only factor in causing the prevailing water scarcity in Pakistan. Poor planning, nonvisionary leadership and foreign meddling in this critical area have also played a decisive role in exacerbating the problem.

Pakistan and Energy & Water Security
For developing countries like China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh it is difficult to fulfill their energy needs through local resources due to various factors which include a whole range of issues from technical challenges to political preferences. But except Pakistan, every other regional player is pursuing the policy in order to overcome these challenges. There are multiple factors hindering Pakistan from harnessing its natural energy, water and food security potential. The major ones are: ♦ No energy security plan: It is the nadir of Pakistani policy makers that they seem still oblivious of the fact that energy and water security must be an essential part of the overall national security plan. All the subsequent problems in this area are the byproduct of this gross policy failure. Absence of any urgency to take corrective measures is also a worrisome aspect. This is an era of quiet wars fought on non-military axis. Water, energy and food have emerged as the new dynamics of security which need to be incorporated into any strategic planning. Conventional wisdom of warfare is becoming extinct now and Islamabad will have to embrace new paradigms of national security and social stability which revolve around these new security dynamics. So far, this is a missing link in Pakistan’s long term security planning. ♦ Poor planning & mismanagement: Pakistan’s largest water reservoir and hydropower plant was built some 35 years ago. Not a single high or even medium capacity hydropower plant has been built since then. Neither any new water reservoir was built after Tarbela. Political interests were preferred at the cost of Pakistani interests by the political and military regimes in Islamabad. Pakistan has ample amount of natural resources to cater to national food, water and power security but absence of a visionary leadership is preventing the exploitation of these resources. It is a painful fact that a country is importing rental power houses while having the potential to produce 40,000 MW of the cheapest and cleanest electricity by Indus alone. Not building any new reservoir has devastated the food security of the country as well. With an exponentially fast growing population, Pakistan has failed to keep the land cultivation rate in sync with the national requirement and the danger of food scarcity is becoming quite conspicuous. Water security situation is bleaker than the

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food and energy crisis. The per caita water availability is touching an all time low and this perilous trend would continue unless Pakistan adopts some radical watershed management policy. ♦ Water terrorism of India: India is making sure that she gets absolute control over Pakistani rivers by exploiting the IWT provisions. Its strategy is to build small dams and reservoirs downstream to each other on the same river while keeping their design parameters within the provisions of IWT so that any Pakistani move to stop the construction of these dams can be prevented. India is going to have total and complete control over Pakistan’s Western rivers in order to create droughts or floods with the entire Indus basin as the target. The Indian policy makers have expressed their satisfaction over this strategy to render Pakistan a barren land. Unfortunately, Islamabad is trying to gauge the damage while India is busy in completing the dams and reservoirs on Pakistani rivers. The latest Indian move is on Jhelum River, where India is vigorously building the Kishan-Ganga dam which on its completion would turn the whole Neelam valley of AJK into a desert and would severely degrade Pakistan’s Neelam-Jhelum project. Both previous and current governments failed to check and prepare a proper response to this Indian project. Previously, multiple dams were built on Chenab and now India is in a position to control its flow towards Pakistan for days. The Pakistani governments have shamefully failed to respond to the Indian madness and now the whole link canal system of Pakistan has been endangered!

The Game
Pakistan is the gateway to Eurasia. The Gawadar port is the nearest trade and transfer hub for energy resources from the entire Eurasia to the rest of the world. No trade or energy transfer is possible to and from the Indian Ocean bypassing Pakistan. This is the unique strength of Pakistan’s geography but, at the same time, this also serves as the most alluring strategic attraction for all the major global players. Baluchistan is a critically sensitive province in this rambling. The US war in Afghanistan is geared towards securing an energy trade corridor from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea. This makes Pakistan a primary target for the US. Just like all other axes, Pakistan is under assault at the energy and water axes as well. The anti Pakistan elements have managed to severely damage Pakistan’s lifeline i.e. its economy and have consequently been trying to prevent it from undertaking the following critical energy infrastructure projects; 1. To deprive Pakistan of making the hydro electric dams, Kalabagh and Bhasha, both could generate Rs500 billion per year and associated agriculture boost of Rs300 billion per year. The export boost-up due to the energy upsurge is translated into Rs850 billion in terms of foreign exchange. Both dams can generate 10,000 MW which is more than enough to meet Pakistan’s energy needs. 2. The IPI pipeline is critical for the economic sustenance of Pakistan. Having the world’s 2nd largest energy hub at our doorstep, Pakistan can import much cheaper energy than oil but this project was delayed unnecessarily till July this year by a confused government in Islamabad. Iran has completed the construction on its side of the border years ago but it took Islamabad three years before the government gave a final go ahead last month for this critical pipeline. Construction work is yet to commence. Initially, the statistics show that if we construct our part of the pipe line from the Iranian border to Karachi, 22 billion cubic meter of gas per year will be ready from the Iranian side which can save up to US$ 10 billion per year (Rs 850 billion per year). But no progress has been made to build the gas pipe line. Paki-

IPI Route
♦ field. ♦ As per original plan, the 2,775-kilometre (1,724 mi) pipeline was to be supplied from the South Pars It will start from Asalouyeh and stretch over 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) through Iran.

♦ In Pakistan, it will pass through Baluchistan and Sindh. In Khuzdar, a branch would spur-off to Karachi, while the main pipeline will continue towards Multan. From Multan, the pipeline may be expanded to Delhi. stan’s two gas distribution companies SNGPL and SSGC are fully capable to construct the cross country pipe line immediately. That potential needs to be exploited as Iran is planning to export the gas to China as well. The total annual savings are around Rs2500 billion for the above mentioned three projects. 3. The Thar coal can generate 10,000 MW up to 30 years. This can be translated into Rs.500 billion per year. But here too, the government is unwilling to release the funds required for the pilot project of coal gasification. Dr. Samar Mubarak Mand, the renowned nuclear scientist, had to come to the media to tell the masses that he will have to buy high pressure compressors from the scrap markets of Lahore and Karachi as the government is not releasing the required funds for these compressors. There is a clear complicity on the government’s part in destroying this critical energy project. 4. Nuclear power is one of the best options we have in order to cater to the future energy requirements. Presently, Pakistan is generating 688 MW after the induction of 2nd power plant at Chashma nuclear energy complex. In weapons, 99% enrichment level is required where as for the nuclear fuels only 7-10% enrichment is sufficient for power generation. Pakistani scientists and technicians are well equipped to run nuclear power plants. They have been managing the Karachi nuclear power plant since the last many years. Today, the world’s top economies like the US, China and Japan are heavily dependent on nuclear energy along with conventional resources. If we manage to generate 10,000 MW the total economic impact comes to Rs1,000 billion per year. But Pakistan is faced with global duality and duplicity. India was given exclusive treatment by relaxing international nuclear control regimes to allow her to become the part of international nuclear club whereas Pakistan is being pressed to cut its nuclear energy projects, including those which have no connection with military usage. The net effect of all the above mentioned projects is around Rs4,000 billion per year. It is worth mentioning here that Iran, despite having the world’s 2nd largest gas reserves, is heading towards establishing its nuclear power energy. Why is Pakistan not opting for nuclear power despite having sufficient human resource in this regard? 5. On water, Pakistan is at war with India. Top Indian leadership has expressed their water ambitions visà-vis Pakistan more than once. Pakistani rivers flowing from Kashmir to Pakistan are not the only target in this Indian frenzy to block Pakistani waters. Now, Indians have taken their war to the next level and aggressively working with the Afghan government to build 12 dams on Kabul River as well. This is an extremely alarming development, more alarming is the reaction and response by Islamabad where planning division, foreign office and government has no strategic plan to secure the Pakistani waters. 6. The latest development in this massive strategic game against Pakistan is the direct foreign meddling into Pakistan’s critical energy infrastructure. Americans are too keen to “assist” Pakistan in the energy and

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water issues. The US is a strategic partner of India in the 21st century and interests of Pakistan and the US are mutually exclusive and the US would never prevent India from violating IWT. Under these circumstances, there must be no foreign intervention of any kind in energy infrastructure development projects.

Comparison of Regional Gas Reserves
Pakistan’s Major Gas Field Reserves 21.6 TCF • • • • • • • Iran • • • • • Russia South Pars North Pars Kish Golshan Tabnak Sui Qadirpur Uch Manzalai Kandara Mari Zamzama 2.84 TCF 2.88 TCF 4.26 TCF 1.759 TCF 1.85 TCF 4.23 TCF 1.37 TCF Total 1000TCF 500 TCF 59 TCF 58 TCF 45 - 55 TCF 21.2 TCF 1930 TCF (World’s Largest)

Strategic Impact
♦ Industry: It is already taking a major hit. Thousands of industrial units have been shutdown in Punjab and Sindh. Small and medium entrepreneurs are the largest victims. Medium scale industry contributes heavily in national GDP but in Pakistan it has been affected badly due to the prevailing energy crisis. Pakistan has failed in harnessing the massive HR pool as there are no jobs for them. ♦ Agriculture: Pakistan is among countries with the lowest per acre yield of all important crops. All regional countries are performing better than Pakistan. ♦ Per capita Water: Pakistan was among the most prosperous countries with respect to water security when it came into being. Now, after 64 years, the situation has been reversed. Water scarcity is reaching fatal levels. Latest estimates about per capita water income are also showing an alarming picture.

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♦ High cost / competitive disadvantage in global export market: Pakistani textile and other export industries are facing a stiff challenge in the international market due to higher productivity cost than the regional and international competitors. Local industries have to produce their own electricity as WAPDA has failed to cater to their demands. The crisis has gotten so severe that no short term solution can be implemented. Though the installing capacity is more than the demand of the industry but as corruption and financial misstatement has shaken the entire country so WAPDA has been forced to shut down number of units. Apart from that, IPPs are providing the electricity at a much higher cost so that the local industry cannot sustain. Consequently, Pakistani exporters are finding themselves in an extremely difficult

• Urengoy 385 TCF • Yamburg 198 TCF • Bovanenkovskoe 166 TCF • Leningradskoye 151 TCF • Rusanovskoye 151 TCF • Zapolyarnoye 132 TCF • Shtokman 113 TCF • Arctic 104 TCF • Astrakhanskoye 102 TCF • West Kamchatka shelf 86.8 TCF • Medvezhye 83 TCF • Yurubchen 73.7 TCF • Kharasoveiskoye 62.5 TCF • Orenburgskoe 62.5 TCF • Kovykta 62.5 TCF

position while competing with others. ♦ Towards civil war, riots and chaos: The current energy crisis is so severe that a number of local and foreign studies are hinting at a social uprising and chaotic civil environment due to it. Violent demonstrations and energy riots have taken place in Faisalabad , Lahore and Sialkot already. Karachi is already in the grip of fear due to the law and order situation but the energy crisis has affected the city of the Quaid the most. Karachi is the economic hub of Pakistan and any chaos there would be devastating for the whole economy.

Recommendations
♦ Water and Energy infrastructure development must be on the lines of strategic assets. Unless Pakistan brings about this decisive change in the overall national security policy by integrating energy, food and water into it, the current situation would only get worse than what it currently is. ♦ For the Energy sector, IP gas pipeline is the most critical infrastructure project which must be executed without any further delay. Inclusion of China into this project would lead to more close co-operation on the regional level. This is a must do job to deter the US influence in the regional energy game. ♦ Pakistan has no food security policy. There has been no survey since 1947 to get an estimate of the future demands of wheat, rice, livestock and other food items which are consumed by the public in bulk. Resultantly, Pakistan’s food security is entirely dependent on natural factors and regional politics. A good season yields a bumper crop but in drought the situation changes dramatically. This is a dangerous trend and must be reversed ASAP. ♦ Exporting surplus wheat is also a disturbing trend regarding food security. Pakistan must build adequate food preservation centers so that the country does not face any major food crisis under any circumstances. ♦ On water, Pakistan will have to take some prompt and tough decisions. Mega dams cannot be delayed anymore. Pakistani governments during the last 5 years have announced the work on Bhasha dam on three different occasions. But the fact is that no physical work is taking place there. On the other hand, India is building multiple dams on each Pakistani river to get control over the water flow. Pakistani diplomacy has failed tremendously. It is time that the military establishment takes this critical issue in its own hands and takes decisive measures to prevent India from further damage. ♦ Pakistan must sign a water sharing agreement with Afghanistan as well. Right now, Pakistan has no legal right to object to the Indian projects on river Kabul. This has been delayed dangerously already. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, July 2011 (Vol 2 No. 2)

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4 Ideological Subversion & Media Warfare
Pakistan’s Exposed Flank

By Farzana Shah

“For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting”

(Sun Tzu)

According to modern war doctrines, the weapon systems and platforms for Information Warfare and Psychological Operations are considered to be far more strategically lethal than nuclear assets, air and naval power as well as land and Special Forces. Psy-Ops open an imperceptible attack on the enemy, soften up the target rendering it vulnerable and then spearhead the invasion by other forces till total annihilation of the enemy is accomplished. Even after the cessation of hostilities, Psy-Ops and Information warfare is kept actively engaged with the enemy in order to terminate all military operations. PsyOps are the most lethal and widespread but least expensive war operations in any theatre of war. Using the most common urban platforms of electronic and print media, cyber world, internet, communication systems and education institutions in a sophisticated and solidly coordinated information war strategy, global perception management can be achieved, consequently defeating and disorienting the enemy often without even firing a shot on ground! The troops and soldiers engaged in this subtle lethal war are journalists, analysts, diplomats, media tycoons, TV anchors, advertising agencies, religious scholars, fifth columnists and teachers - working in a global urban environment, in air conditioned offices – targeting the entire globe or a particular nation and controlling its mental, emotional and psychological direction towards the grand strategic objectives of the imposed war. In the rules and operations of Information War and Psy-Ops, a hostile and compromised influential journalist is far deadlier a weapon against the State than a suicide bomber and therefore deserves an even harsher punishment accorded to the latter by the law. Pakistan is under attack through a vicious and violent 4th generation war, which is designed to break up the

country on the Yugoslavia pattern. The war is already in the advanced stages with almost 50,000 Pakistanis killed in the last 10 years in multiple insurgencies, urban warfare and political violence. But the most lethal and sinister aspect of this war remains the Psychological and Information assault against the state and the people – targeting the Islamic ideology, Pakistani identity, National unity, prestige of the armed forces and the need for the strategic assets; subsequently, creating such thought confusion and mental and moral anarchy that the very foundations of the state and its nationhood have been shaken to the core. Even more shocking is the fact that despite facing an existential threat from this axis of war, Pakistani government, Information management organizations and even the armed forces have completely ignored to build defenses or to launch any counter attack to defend this exposed flank. Pakistan is practically defenseless on this axis and hostile psy-ops forces have almost overrun the entire nation and the country without any resistance, even finding willing collaborators within the state organs to facilitate the decimation of national morale and character. Pakistan is losing the war on this critical axis – and by default would lose the ongoing war on ground as well, despite the heroic sacrifices of its armed forces if this exposed flank is not protected. Losing the psy-ops means losing the war despite winning the ground battles in the process! Pakistan may be winning the battles against the insurgents and the terrorists, but the state and the armed forces as well as the patriots are losing the war on the fronts that matter the most. Currently information warfare is being applied in order to inculcate those values, beliefs, and codes of behavior in the Pakistani youth that are designed by the western propagandists. This growing tactical media tool is targeting the Pakistani society in a way where it can first be disintegrated and then integrated into an institutional structure driven by the new world order of the West. The founding fathers of our country are being portrayed in a manner the western Zionist media wants them to be presented to the world, wherein Jinnah is being presented as a promoter of secularism and Iqbal is being ignored since his philosophy ignites the nation into reaching for glory and calls for replacing the corrupt and failed political democratic and dictatorship systems with proven, sustainable and divinely inspired system of Khilafat. To understand and counter this ruthless information war being waged against Pakistan, we have to understand the working and mechanism of manufacturing public consent.

Manufacturing the Consent
The U.S. Department of Defense defines psychological warfare as:

"The planned use of propaganda and other psychological actions having the primary purpose of influencing the opinions, emotions, attitudes, and behavior of hostile foreign groups in such a way as to support the achievement of national objectives."

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a

The term "manufacturing consent" was initially coined by Edward S Herman and Noam Chomsky. "Manufacturing consent" describes propaganda model used by the corporate media to sway public opinion and "inculcate individuals with values and beliefs...” "Manufacturing consent" describes the submission of public opinion to the mainstream media narrative, to its lies and fabrications.

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This is precisely what is going on against Pakistan presently, the same tactic of manufacturing consent is being used by the foreign funded corporate media, manipulating and shaping public opinion.

Examples of Consent Manufacturing
CNN, Anthrax and Afghanistan Anthrax crisis hit the US and the masses in Europe just after the US invasion of Afghanistan. The media started to show reports about a mysterious and dangerous chemical called Anthrax and according to these reports Al-Qaeda, having a strong bastion in Afghanistan, was sending Anthrax to US officials through the sea. Through the sea! There is no sea near Afghanistan. Well, in 2002, it is not clear how many people were aware of the location of Afghanistan but below is what CNN showed to the masses in order to make them believe their reports about AlQaeda’s potential to export the deadly Anthrax to the US and Europe. A map of Afghanistan according to the world’s largest media enterprise, the CNN, exposing the fact that this map had been fabricated purposelyotherwise only correct maps are available in the world. Afghanistan planted next to the Red sea with strongholds of Al-Qaeda on its soil, having unknown amount of Anthrax, preparing to launch a massive biological attack on Europe, was enough to implant fear in the minds of the masses in Europe and US. During the Iraq War, Fox News erased Iraq from the Middle East map and replaced it with Egypt.

Iraqi WMD’s In 2003, the US secretary for foreign affairs Collin Powell, presented a deviously fictitious account in UN Security Council about the Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Later when it was proved that there was not a single WMD found in Iraq, Collin Powell’s speech destroyed his own as well as America’s credibility among the community of nations. Below are some fabricated proofs which Mr. Powell presented in the UN Security Council.

Satellite Images of Production facilities

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Fake slides presented in UNSC by former American Foreign Secretary Collin Powell, in 2003, in order to get the approval for US attack on Iraq. To the utter humiliation of the US, these later proved to be false and forged

Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP) - System for Consent Manufacturing
It sounds quite childish in modern times to tell someone that his brain can be captured or controlled in a way that it will only think what its controller wants it to think. Our self confidence about our consciousness always keeps us in denial that such a thing as Mind Control is possible. Ironically, this denial helps propagandists to keep our brain in their captivity by means of a technique called ‘Neuro Linguistic Programming’ or NLP. NLP is defined as a tool to explore the relationship between how we think (neuro) how we communicate both verbally and non-verbally (linguistic) and our patterns of behavior and emotion (programs) in order to improve human mind performance or to solve psychological problems. But a careful look at NLP techniques reveal that a reverse treatment to a mind can also be done and there are countless examples around us where this technique is being ruthlessly used to control, change or at least influence human thinking to shape a particular opinion by the masses world over. NLP is not as complicated as it sounds. Human consciousness is composed of five senses i.e. sight, hearing, touch, taste and smell. These five senses help human mind to understand and perceive the world and build our behavior towards certain events or personalities. NLP is a science that makes our brain think in a particu-

lar manner by controlling one or more than one of these senses through repetitive subjective analysis with a particular pattern (Language plays the most critical role here). This pattern is important as it decides in which direction the brain must be molded i.e in favor of something or against something. Subjective analysis takes every bit of truth and impartiality away from the issue at hand and what is left is exaggeration and lies again in favor or against something or some issues depending upon the “requirements.” What remains to be done after this is to determine which senses from a particular group of people will be controlled. If a group of people believes in an event only after watching it this group will get video footages, pictures, movies, map, charts etc. On the other hand if some people believe in what they hear then some intellectual debates, talk shows would be good for them. People interested in physical involvement get their treatment in NLP in forms of strikes, protests and processions etc. Though all these appear to be disconnected from each other, the pattern and subjectivity will keep these events in line with the ultimate goal i.e to mold the brains of viewers, listeners and participants; but what about repetition? This is where the media comes in. Media Warfare against Pakistan. A Unique Case: Pakistan is a unique country in the world rather it is a unique idea which took birth in the heart of a visionary poet genius. It is the only country in the world, with its ideological underpinnings on the divine ideals of Quran and Sunnah. Pakistan is the only country in the world whose movement and creation established the fact that Muslims, no matter in which part of the world they are, will always remain a distinct entity. No race, ethnic devotion and sense of nationalism can divide them politically as their idea of politics is intrinsic to their idea of religion and their idea of religion is much bigger than mere rituals!

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Apart from having this firm ideological basis, Pakistan is also unique among all 57 Muslim countries because it is the only nuclear armed country with the world’s 6th largest military machine. Its geography is also unique as it opens the doors to the whole Eurasian region from the Indian Ocean. Any media assault against such a country would ultimately fail, unless directed to destroy its ideological basis first and this is what has been done to this nation and state. Despite a treacherous regime, corrupt bureaucracy and failed judiciary, Pakistan is still perceived as the biggest threat to the Zionists because of its ideology. New wars have been declared in the Middle East and the reshaping of all major Muslim countries is in progress; still Pakistan remains the greatest threat for the illegitimate state of Israel because of its ideology and nuclear weapons! It is therefore natural that the first assault from the Zionists and their assets would be leveled against the ideology of the Islamic state: Ideological subversion is the ideal strategy!

Ideological Subversion through Media
This is the most worrisome aspect of the media war against Pakistan wherein this mass media tool is being used to make the ideology of Pakistan and its basis appear to be doubtful. A careful look at the existing and emerging trends of programs and content in Pakistani media gives a clear picture that today News Channels are in abundance and playing more powerfully with the perception of the Pakistani people than the entertainment channels. Consequently, the state of the entertainment channels is pathetically subversive with respect to the material they are televising which, in actuality, is carrying the same ideological message the Indian channels are promoting in order to diminish the identity of Pakistanis. Western media houses, controlled by strong Jewish lobbies, have also joined hands in this media onslaught. This mechanism of ideological subversion works in the following order: 1. People’s perception management about certain values and ideals is carried out through specifically produced material and content. 2. The channels’ material and content production is controlled through various collaborative programs. These Media outlets, using aforementioned techniques, are changing the perception of reality in such a way and to such an extent that lies become acceptable, and when enough people believe that these lies are realthey become the new reality. Pakistan is not the first country to be exposed to this kind of mass programming but the real target of this programming, which is the ideology of Pakistan, at this unprecedented level remains a decisively unique phenomenon.

Distortion of Pakistani Society and its Islamic Values
The Western media tends to give a fairly balanced view of most countries except when it comes to Muslims. Muslims have been reduced to a stereotype in a simplistic good v/s evil narrative that makes for good sensationalism and gives the average 9 to 5 Joe a sense of superiority over "them barbarians."

The Western media is not alone in this information, mass media war against the core ideology of Pakistan but our biggest adversary Bharat aka India has also actively joined hands with it. To the utter shame and disappointment of Pakistani patriots our own Pakistani media is in the forefront to promote the anti-Pakistan pro-Hindutva propaganda. By looking at the programs being aired through different channels by cable operators and our own electronic media, in collaboration with Indian Hindutva media, majority of these are targeting women and children as they are the most vulnerable group. The Indian soaps projecting illicit relations between Muslim and Hindu couples and showing interfaith marriages as legitimate, are shockingly contrary and in utter negation of the core values and basics of Islam. Our women, mostly housewives are bombarded with Indian culture derived from Kamasutra land of Hindutva wherein idol worship is virtually promoted against all basics of Islam. These Indian soaps are affecting our Pakistani family fabric by promoting above all a devious conspiracy where family feuds and extra marital affairs are being shown as a norm of the family structure. Young children are exposed to the Hindutva ideology and the Hindi language even through cartoon characters depicting Hindu gods preaching Hinduism to the children. The following video shows one such family where children as young and impressionable as 4 and 10 years of age are exposed to this explosive Hindu culture being promoted by Pakistani media today in our country. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6AbRYaf58c&feature=player_embedded These children are learning nothing but cat fights among in-laws, extramarital affairs, and discreet inversion of values at an early and impressionable age which consequently creates serious disorders and defects in their thinking about their own values which often remain in a complete contradiction to what they see. The moral values, once upheld by our forefathers are now being drowned in a sea of vulgarity flowing from Indian soaps and other programmes. During the last eight years, Pakistani media has taken the liberty to telecast Indian and western programmes exposing children to immoral content, projecting a very flawed and tainted picture of adulthood. The Pakistani film industry has miserably crumbled as the government has permitted the screening of Indian movies in Pakistani theatres, providing yet another front to India to promote their culture among Pakistani masses in an unimpeded manner. Today themes like ideology of Pakistan, Islamic values and ethics have become outdated and the Pakistani mass media is trying to compete with the Indian and western media, obliterating its own Pakistani identity. From the electronic to print media, all possible platforms are being used to negate the two-nation theory and are bent upon proving that Hindus and Muslims are the same and there is no difference of culture and values between the two faiths. These people are forgetting that if there were no difference then there would have been no need for a separate land for ethnic Muslims including Kashmiris, Balouchis, Sindhis, Pathans and Punjabis. The essence of the very existence of Pakistan as an independent sovereign state is not on the basis of race or creed but our nationality is based on the ideology of Pakistan. We must understand that the key to our national integration is this very ideology and nothing more. Today a vast majority of Pakistanis is being exposed to this

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very manufacturing of consent assaulting the core of our country’s values, ideology and integrity. Irrespective of the fact whether they are watching their favourite cartoons, a movie or a documentary or even listening to the most hip and catchy song of the day, they are being conditioned to revolt against their religion, traditions and culture in the name of projecting a universal culture so that none of the groups are in clash with the western and Indian secular ideologies. The invasion of Indian and western media has crippled our own identity. We have lost our religious, cultural and traditional values which are now no more part of our daily lives. This is the classic example of a concise application of the Strategic Communication technique when Ms Sonia Gandhi talked about India’s successful cultural invasion of Pakistan through her satellite channels. After carefully analysing the purpose and method of this entire media war, we come to know that all this television programming is a very deliberate action - scripts, casting, target-audience, all specifically chosen for a very specific reason - implemented with an end goal in mind - to program society to accept a new reality. And this new reality is none other than doing away with Pakistan’s ideological underpinnings, territorial borders and national integrity.

Aman ki Asha or Aman ka Tamasha?
“In this environment, the old adage that ‘A lie can be halfway around the world before the truth has its boots on’ becomes doubly true with today’s technologies…the longer it takes to put a strategic communication framework into place, the more we can be certain that the vacuum will be filled by the enemy”- Donald H. Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, remarks delivered at Harold Pratt House, New York, N.Y., Feb. 17, 2006. What Rumsfeld’s words are particularly true in Pakistan’s case where the vacuum had been filled by none other than our staunch adversary and our own media like the Jang group which is too keen to give this space to our enemies. “Amman Ki Asha”, a carefully crafted sugar coated concept for solidifying the perpetual cultural onslaught by the Indian media, in complete contradiction to the core ideology of Pakistan. One thing which most of our so-called neo liberals in the media had been hiding from the general public is the hypocrisy of these fake aman ki asha initiators; an astonishing fact about Amman Ki Asha which surfaced last year when the slogan “LOVE PAKISTAN” was objected to by the Indian establishment and the observation was conveyed to Times of India in this regard. This incident has actually exposed the latent objective behind this conspiracy. Page 15 of The Times of India, 8th January 2010, shown below, describes the mentality of Indians. This survey was conducted by TOI after the project initiated. Majority of Indian masses think of Pakistan as a source of evil and the Indian media back home did not compromise on its commitment towards Indian land. “KAJRAREY”, a movie recently released in India, is another Bollywood attempt to malign Pakistan’s reputation and project it as a terrorist state. The most disgraceful aspect of it is the presence of Pakistani actors in the movie. It is projected in the movie that the Taliban roam about freely in Pakistan and the Pakistani Police, security agencies as well as the Scotland Yard are helpless to control or contain them; but the most embarrassing aspect of the movie is that it takes an Indian to come and kill the Taliban leader. Although the movie flopped at the box-office but it was a hit in the sense that it fulfilled the hidden objectives of the Indian psyops against Pakistan.

Statistics speak volumes – Aman ki Asha reflected through Indian minds

Advertisements
Another very powerful tool being employed for the purpose of dangerous conditioning and exploitation of Pakistani mind-set is the commercials and advertisements sponsored by multinational as well as large local companies. These commercials are aired on both sides of the border, enhancing and encouraging the actors/ models exchange program, thus adversely affecting the culture as well as the overall image of Pakistan. Our media, especially the most lucrative advertisement business, has been virtually and literally taken over by the Indian media with almost all commercials being produced and acted in by Indians models and actors.

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Consequently, many of our advertisements, television programmes, films, cable and even websites have adopted Indian and western styles and themes. It is obvious that in this new age wars will be won by adopting the Media Route. Pakistan must make a concentrated effort in order to aggressively counter the Indian media and cultural invasion, and strictly ban Pakistani actors from working in Indian movies, dramas, reality shows and commercials.

Tools, Weapons, Platforms

Indian film stars modeling for Pakistani products: Disgraceful!

This media warfare against Pakistan for manufacturing public consent is being carried out with the help of different tools, weapons and platforms, mainly using opinion makers who are instrumental in creating public opinion including politicians, journalists, publishers, editors, educationists, members of parliament, representatives of business circles and lately even TV anchors with aggressive posturing in the Pakistani media. Targets and Objectives There are many objectives of this media war, the biggest being ideological subversion, which we have already discussed. However, there are other targets and objectives which include: ♦ ♦ ♦ Education Political System Defence / Military

Political System Pakistan has seen the banes and boons of various political experiments. We have tried democracy, dictatorship and a mixture of both in form of technocrats. Every system has proven to be a complete failure in guarding Pakistan’s territorial and ideological borders or bringing any kind of stability in society; resulting in Pakistan being regarded as one of those societies from which tolerance has simply vanished! Despite these failures throughout its history, Pakistani media is not even ready to debate about an alternate for the so-called democracy, let alone promote any other system. Pakistan’s constitution contains the Objectives Resolution of 1949 as its preamble which clearly states that the concept of democracy, in its current and pure Western incarnation, is not applicable on Pakistan but the Pakistani media intellectuals remain oblivious to this and are presenting democracy as the Gospels’ word and the only way forward for Pakistan. Pakistani political system has completely rotted due to its persistence with failed political ideals. This misery will continue lest the media remains the guardian of this so-called democracy and its “benefits”.

Education system The media is guilty of feeding excessive western propaganda against the education system in Pakistan especially emphasizing the change in the content of the curriculum taught in the educational institutes of the country. In the name of purging the education system of “extremist views” the syllabi have been watered down. The curriculum has been changed, and almost every ideological view point especially in the O and A Levels programmes, even the text books on Pakistan Studies and Islamic Studies (Islamiyat) have been written by non-Muslim western authors. These facts must suffice to highlight what is being done to our education system. Subsequently, basic moral and religious education has been thrown out of our school courses because it is not seen as being ‘politically correct’. Islamic texts, particularly concepts like Jihad, have been excluded from these books just to appease the western masters. This is creating confusion in young minds that are being taught about Jihad and Islam through manipulative media instead of being instilled in a positive manner through educational institutes. Different meanings of the philosophy of jihad are being fed to the youth distorting its meaning and confusing it with terrorism.

Toys and video games: An effective tool for programming young minds - Distorting the concept of Jihad by equating it with the world’s number one terrorist

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Targeting the country’s Defence/ Military The new media war includes one of the most dangerous game plans against the Pakistani nuclear and defence needs. According to a carefully crafted design, the media is targeting Pakistani defence expenditure and no sooner do we decide to purchase anything necessary for the defence of the country against our excessively strong military adversary, the media launches an aggressive campaign against it. The public is being fed with the wrong notion that India is not a threat to Pakistan and hence Pakistan does not need to spend on its defense. Loud hue and cry is raised over the country’s defence budget but the media goes soft when it comes to the issue of the civilian government’s huge expenditure on non-development activities and their personal luxuries. The funds allocated for development and education end up in the pockets of corrupt politicians. Every now and then, the media also advocates cutting the defence budget and at times even suggests doing away with our nuclear capability. These pundits always overlook the Indian military preparations solely aimed at Pakistan. Targeting the army as an institution is another main aim of the current media manipulation distorting it to a level where the public starts detesting the armed forces. The recent hoopla of human rights’ violation allegedly committed by the Pakistan military during the counter insurgency operations in Swat and Bajur was yet another attempt to malign the Pakistan army right in middle of a war! Since the last nine years the hostile media war propagandists have kept the army in the crossfire while the armed forces themselves are engaged in a bitter war.
Pakistani writer – Maligning PakiIn all other countries, once their armed forces go to war their mestan army for financial embezzlement dia, politicians, intellectuals and other such opinion makers avoid at a time when the country is fightspewing venom and support their soldiers and keep their views for ing an extremely ruthless war! later to avoid demoralizing the soldiers . But here in Pakistan it’s our own influential people who become most active in maligning campaigns, through the media, against our own army specially when it is in state of war against militants that pose a serious threat to the very existence of our country.

The Lal Masjid operation and action against the militants in Bajaur and Swat are a few cases that suggest the double standard of media warmongers, politicians, NGO’s and other opinion makers. When the army was exercising utmost restrain from going for an all out operation in case of Lal Masjid, these neo-liberal media goons and politicians were screaming loud that the Army was proving to be a silent spectator and Islamabad was going to fall to the extremists. But when the army, as a last resort, finally did take up action, the same media started maligning and blackmailing the army for doing exactly what it had been demanding earlier. Such behavior and tactics in media war are aimed at creating doubts about the legitimacy of the mission and

“Innocent Soul” of Lal Masjid – real terrorists portrayed as martyrs by our media!

nurturing the enemy propaganda against the country. These same politicians and pro-India, pro-West agents aka so-called liberal analysts do not let go of any chance to quote the 1971 war and equate the current situation with east Pakistan without full analysis and understanding. Pakistan does have a problem with extremist elements, but there is a lot more to the country than madrassas and nuclear weapons. The Western media gives the impression that mainstream Pakistani society is extremist and that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are sitting around on a supermarket shelf, ready to be stolen. The fact is that less than 1 percent of Pakistani children attend madrassas. http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~akhwaja/...isis_final.pdf As Joseph A. Engelbrecht said in his book “Group members, or the citizens of states, may influence the leaders'

decisions, but it is the hostile will of leadership that must be subdued. If the "mandate of heaven" passes from the leader to other group members--successor leaders or the population at large--the hostile will of these new leaders must be subdued. Information warfare can help withdraw the mandate of heaven from the hands of adversary leaders.” (.Joseph
A. Engelbrecht, "War Termination: Why Does a State Decide to Stop Fighting?" (PhD, Columbia University, 1992). Similarly Arquilla and Ronfeldt, state, “Most weapons--a word used to describe the lethal and nonlethal tools of

warfare--only have high utility --against external adversaries. While most often employed against external adversaries, many of the weapons of information warfare are equally well suited for employment against internal constituencies. For example, a state or group would not normally use guns and bombs against its own members; however, the weapons of information warfare can be used, have been used, and very likely will be used against both external and internal adversaries. Information warfare in the Third Reich, for example, was omnifrontal. Information warfare is hostile activity directed against any part of the knowledge and belief systems of an adversary. The

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"adversary" is anyone uncooperative with the aims of the leader. Externally, this is the agreed upon "enemy," or the "not us." Internally, the adversary might be the traitor, the faint of heart, or the fellow traveler--anyone who opposes or is insufficiently cooperative with the leader who controls the means of information warfare. If the internal members of a group are insufficiently supportive of the aims of the leader during warfare, internal information warfare (including such things as propaganda, deception, character assassination, rumors, and lies) can be used in attempts to make them more supportive of the aims of leadership.” Suggestions
1. It must be recognized that the country is in a state of war – under attack on all axes – while the regime remains part of the problem and not the solution. The Military must take matters into its own hands as far as national security, counter insurgency and information warfare is concerned. Civil courts and media managing organizations have collapsed or have been compromised in this 4th GW by the hostile assets. 2. Information management and psychological warfare weapons must be treated as a strategic force by the national security managers and armed forces. It is absolutely critical and essential for national survival that now a Joint Information Warfare Command be created in JSHQ to launch a counter attack professionally and lethally in this ruthless war. The existing departments of ISPR and Information Ministry are too disoriented and worthless to be of any use - in fact they only give a false sense of security which is lethal in the present war situation. A professional and patriotic Information Warfare Command would set the priorities right, analyze the threats and develop the response. 3. The most critical and positive element is that creation of such a powerful and effective Command for Psy-Ops does not need huge financial or administrative infrastructure or overheads but a team of fanatically patriotic, visionary, professional media analysts and psychologists who would analyze the global, present threat to Pakistan and develop recommendations as well as oversee the implementation through various national media outlets and organizations. One single Command centre HQ can fight this battle if it has the right authority, power and dedication to achieve the mission. 4. The known “media insurgents” and hostile psy-ops assets must be treated at par with the terrorists, traitors, insurgents and suicide bombers. Just as elimination of terrorists is being carried out in FATA, Swat and the rest of the country, similarly arrests and military court trials of fifth columnists that are acting as hostile psy-war assets should also be conducted. 5. Pakistan needs a strong media policy under the present national security environment and this must be ruthlessly implemented. The nonsense notion of “freedom of press” must be discarded forthwith and a firm ideological sense of direction must be given to the media, advertising agencies and the education institutions to support the armed forces in this war. 6. All Indian content must be banned immediately from the Pakistani media, newspapers and advertisements. This Indian artillery has done more damage to Pakistani minds and souls than the insurgencies they have supported. If we do not curb the subversion and blackmailing rights of the hostile and fifth column media in this war of survival then the nation would pay a bloody price which could even be in the form of its freedom.

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7. All anti-Pakistan organizations like SAFMA (which is active in spreading propaganda against Pakistani defense and ideology and advocates free borders with our arch enemy India) and all anti-Pakistan initiatives like aman ki asha, must be banned completely. 8. All foreign, especially Indian stake holders in Pakistani media must be eliminated forcefully. The cross media ownership must be eliminated too. Media laws and regulations, in this wartime, must be redefined as per the needs of national security. Foreign intervention and investments in Pakistani media is a sensitive security issue and current laws have failed to prevent this disaster. 9. Pakistan’s Islamic ideology, the Islamic image of its founding fathers and two nation theory must be jealously guarded and any criticism on the creation of Pakistan, its ideology and the Islamic ethos of its founding fathers must be declared a criminal offence. In many western countries even doubting or challenging the holocaust is a criminal offence. The same precedence can be taken to protect our ideological foundations. 10. Iqbal is the visionary and is the man of destiny for this nation. He must be jealously guarded and promoted. 11. Urdu language must also be jealously guarded, protected and promoted in media and schools. The national language is being deliberately decimated. All schools where Urdu is not given strong priority and not treated with respect must be severely punished and reprimanded. Roman Urdu must be made a crime in advertisements and correspondence.

Conclusion!
Pakistan is in a state of war and is facing a massive media onslaught in every medium of communication. Indian and Western investment in Pakistani media directed towards promoting their ideals and ideology has threatened the very basis of Pakistan. A morally myopic and corrupt regime has handed over this critical arena of national defense to the enemy without even putting up a façade of a fight. The entire nation is now paying a staggering price for this degenerate government’s disgraceful policies. Even the armed forces till now have ignored this critical battlefield. The heroics in the physical battlefields would be lost if not strengthened on information warfare battlefront. It must be clearly understood – the government is compromised and will NOT fight this war. If the armed forces do not take the matters into their own hands NOW, the war for defense of Pakistan would be lost irrevocably, Allah forbid. InshAllah, never! Pakistan Zindabaad! *************************

Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, April 2011 (Vol 1 No. 11)

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5 Provincial Autonomy & Pakistan

Shahzad Masood Roomi

The Constitution of Pakistan has been broadly reshaped under the 18th amendment by the present political elite of the country. Allowing provincial autonomy to the provinces is one of the major amendments made in the constitution. Provincial autonomy has been a buzz word in Pakistan since the time of its independence. It means a system of provincial government, independent and free from any external influence or reliance in governance, administration, legislation and management of provincial affairs. Complete provincial autonomy means absolute independence of provincial government, with an absolute right to secede from the state at will. Politically and administratively, Pakistan is a federated state with a center holding major policy and decision making institutions in the realm of national security, finance and foreign policy. Provinces have some other subjects under their jurisdictions. Just like any classical federation, the state also has some subjects managed both by center and provinces at different levels. The debate on Provincial autonomy in Pakistan stems from the fact that socio-economic progress and development is not uniform among all provinces due to various natural factors and management issues. According to provincial autonomy Campaigners, this assorted social development among provinces is a culmination of disallowing complete autonomy to the provinces. What these provincial autonomy aficionados do not tell the nation is how socio-economic uplift in the provinces would be ensured while every state institution is indulging in unparallel corruption, mismanagement and incompetency. Usually it is believed that the center has seized all the powers, however, the truth is that every political party makes this allegation against its opponents when they are in the government but as soon as these politicians themselves come into power, they make new amendments in order to grab more powers while sitting in Islamabad. Recent amendments in constitution have opened up a Pandora’s box of this kind of autonomy and its implications on Pakistan’s stability once again. Does Pakistan really need provincial autonomy? Did the Pakistan resolution promise something like provin-

cial autonomy? What the founding fathers have said in this regard? What is the difference between provincial rights and autonomy? What is the real source of sense of deprivation in masses? What is required to be done to ensure socio-economic uplift of masses? This paper examines all these aspects of provincial autonomy and attempts to find some answers. At this point it would be prudent to take a look at the origin of this particular political dogma of provincial autonomy.

Provincial Autonomy in Pakistan Resolution
The promise of provincial autonomy in Pakistan resolution of 23rd March, 1940, is used as the strongest argument in favor of provincial autonomy. This view point stems from an objective analysis of the 1940 resolution, according to which, since Muslim struggle for independence was to gain states with autonomous units in united British India, hence autonomy must be given to provinces in Pakistan as well. One must keep Pre and Post World War II political landscape of British India in sight, before making any judgment about the 1940 resolution and its demands, in context of provincial autonomy in an independent Pakistan. Below is an excerpt of Pakistan resolution:

"No constitutional plan would be workable or acceptable to the Muslims unless geographical contiguous units are demarcated into regions which should be so constituted with such territorial readjustments as may be necessary. That the areas in which the Muslims are numerically in majority as in the North-Western and Eastern zones of India should be grouped to constitute independent states in which the constituent units shall be autonomous and sovereign".
Last two lines of the given excerpt make it clear that in 1940, One Pakistan was not the demand rather separate Muslim states were demanded; One in North West of India and other in Eastern zone. This resolution was adopted by Muslim League later in 1941 as part of its constitution.
Right: Different Muslim States envisaged in the 1940 Resolution

An important fact is overlooked often, that during the debate of demand of autonomy in the 1940 Resolution, there were reasons for using the word autonomy in that specific resolution by the drafters, as any word like “independence” or “separation” were

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strictly banned in any public procession by the law known as Defense of India Rule, introduced after the start of Second World War. Furthermore, it was mentioned in the last paragraph of 1940 Pakistan Resolution that a mechanism for “final assumption of powers” will be formed afterwards in new Muslim states which All India Muslim league demanded at that historic occasion of 23rd March 1940. In these circumstances Indian Muslims were desperate for retaining their participation and representation in state affairs at that time. So another major reason behind calling for autonomy was to get justice in representation of Muslims in legislative bodies in Muslim majority provinces. The British had curbed the real representation of Muslims in legislator elections in two majority provinces: Punjab and Bengal. In Punjab Muslims were 56% of the total population with a representation of just 42% and in Bengal Muslims were 45% of legislator bodies despite having a majority population share of 57%. So in these circumstances the demand of autonomy makes complete sense in United India where Muslims were deprived of their legitimate legislator representation; but by looking at the intentions of British Raj and Hindu conspirators, soon it was realized by the founding fathers that the demand for autonomy was no solution to this problem. This fact is evident from the Quaid’s speech at the conclusion of Muslim League Legislator convention held in April 1946 in Delhi;

“There are those who say to us what is the good of you talking of Pakistan when you cannot form ministries in your majority provinces? I say to them this is the very reason why we want to get rid of India Act of 1935 and establish Pakistan. Look at the spirit how they are forming Ministries in Mulsim majority provinces and hindering us from forming Ministries in our majority provinces.”
Post 1940 political developments are instrumental in understanding the shift of demand from autonomy to a sovereign separate homeland for Muslims; the fact is that by 1943 Quaid-e-Azim had demanded “Divide and Quit”, this makes it clear that demands of autonomy under 1940 resolution had very much reallocated towards “complete independence and sovereignty” by then and this fact becomes more evident after 1945 elections, when Quaid-e-Azim called for “Direct Action” if Indian Muslims were not allowed to have their own independent state, Pakistan. To make the shift in demand more clear, All India Muslim League held its historic legislator convention in April 1946, Delhi, in which not only the earlier resolution of 1940 was amended but a new draft was also formulated making it clear that Muslims could not live with Hindus in ‘One India’ and any oppression and force will be resisted in the toughest possible way. This was the first time that Muslim league decided to shift its decisive struggle towards crafting one Muslim state (i.e Pakistan) in Indian subcontinent instead of previously envisioned two states (one on North West and other in Eastern zone). The Quaid’s speech on this occasion makes it clear that autonomy was no more a demand of Muslims and also that Muslims were not interested in being part of any government in united India;

“We cannot agree to a single constitution- making body, because it will mean we are signing our death-warrant and we cannot agree to consider any agreement unless Pakistan scheme is accepted as sine qua non.”
Despite the fact that provincial autonomy was introduced in India Act of 1935, when it came to protection of social rights, political identity and ideology, the only solution Quaid envisaged was the creation of Pakistan and not the provincial autonomy within united British India. Below is another excerpt of his speech at the conclusion of Muslim League legislator convention;

“If there is any safeguard known in the world for the minority provinces, the most effective safeguard is creation of Pakistan. The present constitution also has safeguards but are paper safeguards any good? ”
But still supporters of complete provincial autonomy insist that Pakistan was intended to be a loose federation, comprising of completely autonomous provinces/states or in other words it was deemed as a confederation rather than a federation. The most absurd part of this whole drama is the way completely autonomous provinces are presented, as if it were promised to the nation by the founding father himself. To thwart this misconception once and for all, below is an excerpt of Quaid’s historical speech at Quetta municipality on 15th June, 1948 (Just 87 days before his death) where he demolished any concept of provincial autonomy.

“While, however, one must love one's town and work for its welfare--indeed because of it--one must love better one's country and work more devotedly for it. Local attachments have their value but what is the value and strength of a "part" except within the "whole". Yet this is a truth people so easily seem to forget and begin to prize local, sectional or provincial interests above and regardless of the national interests. It naturally pains me to find the curse of provincialism holding sway over any section of Pakistan. Pakistan must get rid of this evil. It is a relic of the old administration when you clung to provincial autonomy and local liberty of action to avoid control--which meant--British control. But with your own Central Government and its power, it is a folly to continue to think in the same terms, especially at a time when your State is so new and faces such tremendous problems internal and external. At this juncture any subordination of the larger interest of the State to the provincial or local or personal interest would be suicidal.”
The Quaid also appealed to the nation for an unshakable Pakistani nationalism to overcome the menace of provincialism:

“Baluchistan is the land of brave independent people and to you, therefore, national freedom, honour, and strength should have a special meaning. These whisperings of mulki and non-mulki are neither profitable for the land nor worthy of it. We are now all Pakistanis--not Baluchis, Pathans, Sindhis, Bengalis, Punjabis and so on--and as Pakistanis we must feel, behave and act, and we should be proud to be known as Pakistanis and nothing else. I ask you always to pause and consider before taking any step whether it is conditioned by your personal or local likes and dislikes or is determined by consideration of the good of the State.” Provincial Autonomy in Pakistan
Soon after the death of Quaid-e-Azam, political parties started to deviate from Pakistani nationalism that was eagerly desired by him. Rhetoric of provincial autonomy started once again and results were devastating for national security. Awami League, in East Pakistan, started to demand complete autonomy under 1940 resolution. Politicians, in both East and West Pakistan, treacherously played ethno-linguistic cards to push their own political agendas. Though heinous political blunders were committed by Islamabad at times as well but chiefly it was the demands of Awami League which resulted in the severance of East Pakistan.

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The 6 points presented by Mujib-ur-Rehman, including demands like two currencies, two paramilitary forces, two separate accounts for foreign exchange were a clear declaration of secession of East Pakistan and all of these were based on pure ethno-linguistic politics to gain power. Never, during his whole political career, did Mujib come up with a practical approach for uplifting the socioeconomics of East Pakistan. He rather used problems like poverty, linguistic polarization, and ethnic disparities to work in his favor to pursue his agenda of separation. Unfortunately political parties demanding provincial autonomy now in Pakistan also have same desires and designs. No political party ever demanded something like provincial autonomy after the debacle of 1971, until very recently when sudden uproar was seen in Pakistan for this cause in pretext of deprivation of provincial rights and local control over various natural resources. Leaving military dictators aside, even elected civilian governments always try to clutch maximum powers in the center to plunder unabated. The 18th amendment is a clear example of this tragedy in Pakistan. People of Pakistan demand the resolution of their problems with feelings of participation in governance. The sense of being deprived by the center or a majority province must be nullified. Realization of social problems and provincial right is the first step in that direction. Provincial autonomy and Social issues All the major problems and crises in Pakistan are a result of two things, both are mutually exclusive. 1. Power grabbing by political elite 2. Corruption Every political party after coming into power tries its level best to grab maximum powers to have absolute control. This flawed political practice only generated absolute corruption, with no accountability to the nation. Like it is said, “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Instead of solving problems, the corrupt politicians and sub nationalists are using social and public issues to further their agenda to have more powers by presenting provincial autonomy as a divine remedy for these crucial problems like water management, food shortages, energy and terrorism. Granting legitimate rights, of legislation and governance, to the provinces can reduce the sense of deprivation among masses in smaller provinces but that would only work if Pakistani political culture undergoes a radical change.

Provincial Autonomy verses Provincial Rights
Sub nationalists and small ethnic political parties are more vocal for complete provincial autonomy without realizing the fact that it is not possible in a federated state like Pakistan. In a federation there are some enabling mechanisms between the two layers of governance and administration: One at federal level and the other at provincial level. A federation, in its true sense is very different from what sub nationalists and parities are demanding i.e. a confederation.

Contrary to all the propaganda, a federation has no concept of imposing the will of the center on any province, while at the same time it is directly in contradiction of complete provincial autonomy. There must be a balance of power between provinces and center among all pertaining issues of governance and management and this is something we don’t see in Pakistani federation. This imbalance of power between center and provinces gave birth to problems like corruption, inadequacy of resources, lagged progress and social chaos. In a multi ethnic country like Pakistan, with its diverse demography, it is imperative to maintain a sense of uniform development and progress among all the ethnic communities and groups within and among the provinces. The smaller the ethnic group or community, the more sensitive it would be towards its growth, progress and development. Baluchistan is mere 4% of Pakistan’s total population and the province is further divided into multiple ethnicities. In such a diverse and complex, cultural and social landscape every small ethnic community would feel insecure socially, economically and politically if the government fails to ensure uniform socioeconomic progress among all ethnic communities. This is something that is agitating the Baluchis and other communities in Baluchistan.

Does size matter?
Some analysts supporting provincial autonomy are of the view that disparity between size of Punjab and other provinces is a major bone of contention for gaining provincial harmony; so Punjab must be split into two to three smaller provinces to dissipate the other provinces’ sense of insecurity. It would help in improving management and governance in newly formed smaller provinces. Another group has similar views about Baluchistan, which, according to this group, must be divided into two to three smaller provinces so that social uplift in Baluchistan can be ensured. Apparently, these proposals seem to be very realistic and practical. In its pure management and governance incarnation this is what must be done as well, but along with these proposals there are some important questions, which must be answered: 1. How smaller provinces, consisting of Punjabi population, will solve the problem of provincial disharmony and how will they promote ethnic cohesion in the state of Pakistan? 2. How provincial rights would be granted with this divide of larger provinces into smaller ones? Dividing larger provinces into smaller ones is not something equal to provincial autonomy. So provincial autonomy is a subject directly between the center and provinces, regardless of how big or small they are. 3. How diverse ethnic demography in Pakistan will be managed in this new setup? How equal representation of all ethnic blocks will be ensured in Senate with split of larger provinces? This arrangement can lead to a calamitous situation; as with this division, Punjabis and Baluchis will have more than one province of theirs while Pukhtuns and Sindhis will have just one. This will destroy the existing political and ethnic harmony and balance in national institutions like Senate. 4. How just and fair resource division and allocation would be ensured? This is already a serious and critical issue among provinces and center. Dividing provinces would further complicate this issue.

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So it is clear that dividing larger provinces is not a solution to any challenge, neither governance nor provincial autonomy rather political situation in context of ethnic harmony will become more fragile.

18th Amendment & Provincial Autonomy
1973 constitution of Pakistan described the role of both central and provincial governments along with their roles and mandates. There were 47 items in the constitution (Concurrent List) enlisted in schedule IV of constitution which were shared among provinces and center. This list was to be abolished within the ten years of formulation of constitution but it remained there till the 18th amendment. In the past concurrent list in schedule IV of constitution remained a cause of contention between center and provinces. It has been eliminated by the current government through the 18th amendment under the catchphrase of giving complete provincial autonomy to the provinces. All 47 subjects in concurrent list, have been shifted to the provincial legislative list. As this decision was made without proper forethought and parliament passed 18th amendment in clumsy haste, now provincial governments are up against a mammoth challenge of managing all the departments moved from center to provinces. Elimination of concurrent list was necessary but this was supposed to happen in a manner that ensures maximum possible provincial rights to provinces while denying sense of complete provincial autonomy. To ensure this, a careful evaluation of each subject enlisted in concurrent list was compulsory before passing these subjects over to provincial level. Lack of capable and experienced bureaucratic work force in smaller provinces is a big issue to deal with after the eradication of concurrent list. As now these departments would function under provincial control so every province would employ its own people in these departments. Baluchistan and KPK have real difficulties in bridging the demand of experienced, local managers and bureaucratic staff for newly shifted departments. It’s surprising that no advocate of provincial autonomy ponders upon these issues as how provincial rights must be exercised through enhanced by capacity building of provinces in management and governance areas to give local People in provinces some sense of ownership and participation in resolution of their local issues.

Provincial Autonomy in context of National Integrity
The curse of grabbing absolute political powers by amending the constitution not only caused stagnation to national progress but also ruined the concept of federating state by providing opportunity to hostile states and agencies to use this demand to launch severe psychological operations to create mistrust, friction and drift among various ethnic communities. The demands of complete provincial autonomy along with corruption, mismanagement, incompetency and disastrous policies can potentially pose a serious internal threat to the national security, the likes of one the nation faced in 1970s, when Awami League demanded the same, taking advantage of poor socio-economic situation in East Pakistan due to poor management by the then government in Islamabad. As Pakistan armed forces have crushed insurgency in Swat Malakand, it has now become evident that these insurgencies are not just the fall out of Pakistan’s decision to support US in war on terror rather are part of

the 4th generation warfare tactics being employed against Pakistan by forces like CIA, Mossad and RAW. Multiple insurgencies, of varying strengths, have erupted in the country, particularly in Western and North Western provinces, so the environment is conducive for sub nationalists to push demands of complete provincial autonomy. Taking advantage of the situation, Indian backed BLA and BRA activists are killing non Baluchis. Sub nationalist political parties have got unprecedented power and the streets of Quetta are presenting similar scenes that were once witnessed on the streets of Dhaka. The current government in Pakistan is almost fatal for the nation. This government has failed miserably in reading the security dynamics of the region and allowed an unprecedented level of foreign meddling into

(Women protestors in Quetta 2010)

(Women protestors in Dhaka 1971)

state affairs through continuation of failed policies of previous government. A weak center is unacceptable in a federation from the security point of view and unfortunately the nation is living with a politically feeble center, without any real power of taking corrective measures in governance and national security policy formulation. Resultantly, sub nationalist and separatist elements have become stronger political players on the national canvas. The government was hoping for a decline in separatist tendency in restive provinces after passing the 18th amendment but it got messier. The situation in Baluchistan is already very fragile as people responsible for socioeconomic plight of the masses are sitting in the government of Baluchistan. NWFP was renamed as Khyber PkhtunKhawa (KPK). As renaming was carried out on ethnic basis, this triggered a chain reaction in the country by various communities demanding separate provinces for themselves. This trend will divide the whole country on ethnic and linguistic basis. Violence and clashes erupted among different communities within NWFP in which many lives were lost. Aggressive campaigns for establishing Hazara province were carried out and the situation is deteriorating with each passing day. Angry and grieved Hazarawals have put up illegal road signs and billboards are displayed along various roads in Hazara, showing the region as a separate province, whereas the government and parliament has not decided anything like that. The situation between Sindh and Punjab is getting tense by the day over water issue.

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Punjab and Sindh are in head-on collision on water distribution and Chashma-Jehlum Link canal power project announced by the government of Punjab recently. After shifting water to provincial government, Punjab can initiate KBD (Kala Bagh Dam) project, which is vital for its energy and agriculture needs but it would widen the trust deficit which is already reaching a critical threshold. Issues like water crisis are not made up by provinces but are culmination of sheer mismanagement and treacherous policies at federal level, by both current and previous governments in Islamabad. Provincial autonomy will not solve, rather it would deepen the crisis which is already in the making, as India has stopped the flow of Pakistani rivers by building dams on these rivers and violating IWT of 1960. History has taught a very tough lesson to the Pakistani nation that provincial autonomy is a tool of propaganda warfare used by India, successfully throughout the 1960s and Pakistan had to pay the price in 1971. The situation is once again similar: Pakistani nation is under attack by Indian and Western media, who are using provincial autonomy, objective analysis of history and exaggerated facts as their weapons in this media war. Pakistan needs to take some serious steps to combat evil of provincialism.

Proposals
There are few proposals to combat this evil of provincialism: 1. Elimination of Corruption Pakistan has only one way forward on the subject of provincial autonomy and that is to follow what Quaidi-Azam has said. To seek a solution, given below is another excerpt of the same speech he made on 15 June 1948; If each individual thus scrutinizing himself and forces--for initially it will require a certain amount of force-upon himself the principal of honesty to others as well as to himself, regardless of fear or favor. I see a very bright future ahead. If individuals, both officials and non-officials play their part thus and work in this spirit,

the Government, the Nation and the State will immediately bear their stamp, and Pakistan will emerge triumphantly as one of the greatest nations of the world. Here the Quaid called for pure Islamic concept of self accountability so that no individual can be allured by any kind of corruption. It is corruption at different levels that has put Pakistan in the current state of affairs. As said by the Quaid at the end of Muslim League legislator convention in 1946; “We have lost the fullness of our noble character. And what is character?- Highest sense of honour and highest sense of integrity, conviction, incorruptibility , readiness at any time to efface oneself for the collective good of the nation”. Pakistan is facing the same dilemma once again, and the only solution to get out of this is to curb corruption at every level, at any cost. Had Pakistan a strong accountability system, the situation would have been very different in every field of life, including uniform progress for all ethnicities and communities. Absence of accountability and speedy justice have shrouded the masses with a sense of deprivation and hence it must be eliminated. 2. Islamic ideology and Pakistani Nationalism As it was said by the Quaid some 63 year ago, it is Islamic ideology blended with Pakistani nationalism that can keep Pakistan united under all circumstances. Pakistan must protect its ideology jealously. Education and Language are two sensitive areas in this regard in any country and Pakistan is no exception. These areas will overlap between center and provinces. Neither provinces nor center can cope with these subjects alone. Center must provide the provinces with a broad framework of education, built around the theme of defending and safeguarding the ideology of Pakistan. Also, center must do everything possible to save Urdu in the education system by adopting it as a medium of instruction in institutions and universities at higher education level, while provinces must do the same at secondary and primary levels. Language and Education are two most important pillars against the curse of provincialism and must be cultivated into the nation’s interests. Another major area in which government must work on war footing is media management in context of ideology of Pakistan, so that propaganda of provincial autonomy can be thwarted. India and US are investing in Pakistani media to initiate complex psychometric media wars on ideological axis. 3. Provision of Provincial Rights While drafting the 1973 constitution, an interim period of ten years was given before elimination of concurrent list. The wisdom behind this delay was the realization that provinces would not be able to run so many departments without proper capacity building. The present government has eliminated concurrent list but has failed to solve the problems. Giving provincial

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rights is imperative but how this will be done is a subject where most of the brains in intellectual community of Pakistan must start pondering. Provinces in Pakistan are highly interdependent and also rely on the center for various resources. There are federating states, like Pakistan, with more than two legislative lists sharing some areas and subjects. In India, some of the subjects from provinces have been put into federal list. Eliminating concurrent list or moving everything to provincial legislative list is not the word of Gospel. Pakistan needs some kind of enabling bodies that can work with center and province at the same time on issues which are inter linked, like security, higher education, revenue etc. 4. Capacity Building Many problems that smaller provinces are facing are direct result of lack of adequate experience and skill man power in public offices and not having capacity to cope with challenges of modern age management issues. Capacity building is important and provinces must form specialized academies so that new managers and administrators can be trained to take responsibilities in new departments, which would be handed over to provinces separately.

Conclusion
Corruption and mismanagement over the decades have distorted the social fabric of the Pakistani nation. Nation and state have also suffered from lack of leadership due to corruption. This has caused a deep sense of deprivation in the masses, particularly in smaller provinces. Pakistan has to overcome this corruption in its political system and must also get rid of elements that always seek more and more power while sitting in the center. On the other hand Pakistani nation must reject any ethnic or linguistic appeal by any political party or group in order to show Pakistani nationalism rather than provincialism. Quaid-e-Azam gave principles of leadership and nation building and it is time for Pakistani state to put these principles into practice, while also devising policies for the future. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, August 2010 (Vol. 1 No. 3)

6 18th Amendment

Revenge of Pakistani democracy
Shahzad Masood Roomi

“Democracy is a government of the fools, for the fools, by the fools.” (Gorge Burned Shaw)
The stated objective of the 18th amendment was to decontaminate the constitution from all the authoritarian amendments made by military rulers particularly 17th amendment. This was deemed necessary by parliament for various state organs to work in cohesion. The question is, has 18th amendment got its stated objective served? The answer is NO. Instead, this very amendment has taken away the essence of democracy from the entire political system in the country. This amendment is nothing but an attempt to hijack country’s constitution making institutes. Apart from that, recent amendment is going to hurt the state by opening too many Pandora boxes. The recent amendment was suppose to take powers from president and give them back to the parliament and to the prime minister in order to reverse the impact of 17th amendment. Ironically instead of giving powers back to parliament and Prime Minister Office this amendment has turned both these institutes into rubber stamps by conceding many of existing powers of these institutes to some (possibly) non-elected individual politicians. 18th amendment is going to do following in the future; It would bring more corruption to Pakistani politics by uprooting rule of law, it would promote sham democracy in Pakistan by allocating powers to non-elected people, it would shake national integrity and 18th amendment would undermine vital national institutes and below is how;

Death of rule of law and justice
Now even a corrupt, ineligible and incompetent politician, as party head, would be able to manipulate the whole political system in the country. This was achieved by making some very disturbing changes in article 63.

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This article deals with the eligibility of political contesters in general elections. This amendment has ruined the idea of rule of law and justice. Amendments made in article 63 would enable every convicted criminal to be part of the parliament after five years of his release from jail irrespective of the fact why that person was convicted. This can also include promoting anti-state propaganda, bringing defamation and ridicule to Pakistan. This has been achieved by removing Article 63(1)(I) from constitution and by amending Article 63 [1][g]. Article 63(1) (p) has been removed altogether as this clause was to prohibit absconders to enter into political process of the country. With these critical changes in article 63, political elite has turned itself morally naked in front of public. Nowhere in the world can a similar amendment even be contemplated but here in Pakistan, ironically, no one has any objection to these changes. For record below is exact text changed items in article 63 in 18th Amendment;

Excerpt from Article 63 in constitution before 18th amendment
“63. Disqualifications for membership of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) (1) A person shall be disqualified from being elected or chosen as, and from being, a member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament), if:… (g) he is propagating any opinion, or acting in any manner, prejudicial to the Ideology of Pakistan, or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, or morality, or the maintenance of public order, or the integrity or independence of the judiciary of Pakistan, or which defames or brings into ridicule the judiciary or the Armed Forces of Pakistan; or [(h) he has been convicted by a court of competent jurisdiction on a charge of corrupt practice, moral turpitude or misuse of power or authority under any law for the time being in force; or (i) he has been dismissed from the service of Pakistan or service of a corporation or office set up or controlled by the Federal Government, Provincial Government or a Local Government on the grounds of misconduct or moral turpitude; or (p) he has been convicted and sentenced to imprisonment for having absconded by a competent court under any law for the time being in force; or … Now it is worth noting that there is no mention of taking corrupt and convicted persons back into political process ever again in original text of article 63 but according to new amendments it will become possible for the convicted criminals and absconder to come back and be part of the political process all over. In 18th amendment the following clauses of the article has been substituted as following; (Changes are in bold)

21. Substitution of Article 63 of the Constitution
In the Constitution, for Article 63, the following shall be substituted, namely,"63. Disqualifications for membership of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) (1) A person shall be disqualified from being elected or chosen as, and from being, a member of the Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament),

… (g) he has been convicted by a court of competent jurisdiction for propagating any opinion, or acting in any manner, prejudicial to the ideology of Pakistan, or the sovereignty, integrity or security of Pakistan, or the integrity or independence of the judiciary of Pakistan, or which defames or brings into ridicule the judiciary or the Armed Forces of Pakistan, unless a period of five years has elapsed since his release; or (h) he has been, on conviction for any offence involving moral turpitude, sentenced to imprisonment for a term of not less than two years, unless a period of five years has elapsed since his release; or (i) he has been dismissed from the service of Pakistan or service of a corporation or office set up or, controlled, by the Federal Government, Provincial Government or a Local Government on the ground of misconduct, unless a period of five years has elapsed since his dismissal; or … By looking at amended article 63 it is evident that political elite of Pakistan has compromised over strongest safeguard of democracy i.e. rule of law. Not only clauses have been changed but some clauses are no more present in newly amended article. It seems that through amended article political elite has legalized all the corruption and misuse of various public offices. Corruption and misuse of authority are considered atrocious crimes in any democracy in the world but unfortunately in Pakistan corruption is not a concern to the law makers.

Promotion of Sham Democracy
Instead of putting law makers’ selection under stricter checks, 18th amendment would only encourage corrupt ones to join in. Without rule of law any democracy would be a completely sham and it would have no public approval as no public issue would be solved by subsequently formed sham democratic system in the country. Another undemocratic change is the way defection clauses of article 63(A) would be applied to manipulate MPs’ conscience. Prior to 18th amendment, defection was NOT applicable to a member parliament in case of his/her vote to constitution bill (amendment) as per his/her conscience. Below is amended text and changes are shown in bold words; “63A. Disqualification on grounds of defection, etc.(l) If a member of a Parliamentary Party composed of a single political party in a House- (a) resigns from membership of his political party or joins another Parliamentary Party; or (b) votes or abstains from voting in the House contrary to any direction issued by the Parliamentary Party to which he belongs, in relation to(i) election of the Prime Minister or the Chief Minister; or (ii) a vote of confidence or a vote of no-confidence; or (iii) a Money Bill or a Constitution (Amendment) Bill; He may be declared in writing by the Party Head to have defected from the political party, and the Party Head may forward a copy of the declaration to the Presiding Officer and the Chief Election Commissioner and shall similarly forward a copy thereof to the member concerned: Provided that before making the declaration, the Party Head shall provide such member with an opportunity to show cause as to why such declaration may not be made against him. Applying defection on a member parliament who is intending to vote for or against any constitutional bill will

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take away the freedom of speech from MPs something very critical for a real democracy. Unfortunately socalled champions of democracy in Pakistan have made sure that all the political parties would become hostage to single entity; “Party Head” irrespective to fact if he himself is member of parliament or not. To ensure authoritarian control over political parties’ farther article 17 has been edited as well. Clause 4 of Article 17 is no more part of the constitution. In presence of this clause intra party elections were a constitutional obligation for all political parties. After 18th amendment it is not a constitutional obligation anymore to select a party head through an intraparty election. As there will be no election within the parties so political parties would becomes personal property of one entity. It would be prudent to ask the parliamentarians what their role would be in constitution making in the future?

Undermine Vital National Institutes
Military dictatorship in a parliamentary federation is conceived as worse form of governance as it undermines almost all the national institutes like parliament and judiciary etc. but what about civilian dictatorship in same federation? Well, it would be worst case. Dictatorship, irrespective of its military or civilian incarnation, usually opposes all the democratic norms like rule of law, freedom of speech etc. With change in article 63A there is no guarantee that parliament would be able to function freely ever again as any debate on any pertaining issue would be futile as real decision now lies with party head and not with the parliament. Current amendment will not only undermine parliament but office of Prime Minster will also lose its authority as office of country’s chief executive unless he himself is acting like party head as well otherwise an elected PM will have to see towards party head for every move. As parliament would be bypassed, so any new political and constitutional problem will be settled outside the parliament among party heads. By looking at political history of the country it is safe to assume that every political head would use such opportunity to push his/her own agenda ahead by black mailing other parties. Latest display of such heinous political impasse was the way ANP got NWFP renamed by blacking mailing other parties on 18th amendment’s approval. Keeping in mind, current foreign meddling in Pakistani politics this arrangement can be a suicidal not only for political system (democracy) but for the country itself. Now it would become easier for foreign meddlers to interfere in Pakistan’s internal political affairs by overlooking national institutes like national assembly and senate. Like dictatorship all these meddlers would have to do is to negotiate with one person; Party Head, to simply intimidate or entice him, whatever is workable in a given situation, to get “job done”. What a “job” can possibly be? Well, it may sound like conspiracy theory but in fact current government, in the past, has unsuccessfully tried, twice, to undermine premium intelligence institute of Pakistan, ISI, clearly on instructions from abroad. Recently, authority to point services chiefs in armed forces have been given to prime minister but in presence of 18th amendment it will be eventually the party head who would appoint the services chief. Personal likes and dislikes in this practice have failed the whole democratic system in the past. Pakistan in current situation cannot afford any political turmoil.

Judicial commission has already been challenged in Supreme Court by Pakistan Bar Council and court will listen to the petitions against the formulation of Judicial Commission soon. It seems that government and political parties have created yet n judicial crisis in the country. But this is not the first bane of the 18th amendment. Another crisis are in making in shape of Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa and provincial autonomy.

Shaking National Integrity
Provincial autonomy has remained a painful experience of Pakistani nation and this dogma never met with political acceptance ever since 1971 until now. Pakistan since independence was deemed as a strong federation with certain provisions with provinces. All the constitutions made in Pakistan since independence rejected political autonomy in its absolute incarnation but current “engineered” government in Islamabad has resurrected this old buried issue once again. Pakistani constitution like many other federations (including India) had more than two legislative lists dealing with jurisdictions, of center and provinces, to make laws for specified subjects. Some subjects were shared between center and province through a concurrent list. In 18th amendment this list has been abolished altogether and all 47 subjects included in this list have been moved to provinces. The changes in Schedule IV and Article 70 of the constitution have posed new administrative challenges to provincial governments about how to shift subjects which were enlisted in concurrent list previously? But an even bigger challenge at hand is how center and province would agree on formulation of proposed implementation commission before 5th of May 2010 and how this commission going to complete devolution of subjects to the provinces before 13 June 2011? Both dates set in 18th amendment draft. This process is going to test the nerves of law makers as some of the subjects in previously present concurrent lists are such which can’t be handed over to provinces alone like Electricity. In federations all over the world having two or three legislative lists is not a problem. India since 1950 is maintaining more than one legislative list and surprisingly, there, constitutional subjects have been moved from provincial list to federal list exactly opposite to something Pakistan’s newly born democracy is trying to achieve. Last but not the least, 18th amendment has stirred ethno-linguistic politics in Pakistan by renaming NWFP province as Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa. Sub nationalist ANP hijacked whole constitutional reform program over this demand and threatened other parties to not let amendments pass if new name is not accepted. Changing province name in any country may be not an issue at all but in Pakistan word “Pakhtunistan” or “Pukhtoonkhwa(KPK) ” has a very disturbing history which dates back to Pakistan movement in 1940s. Cre-

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Not only armed forces but judiciary has been also politicized through 18th amendment. A new seven member judicial commission has been raised to appoint judges in High Court and Supreme Court. This commission would consist of entities like attorney general of Pakistan. Previously, authority of appointing new judges in higher courts was with Chief Justice of Pakistan and political parties, both in government or in opposition, had no role in appointments of judges. Through this process political leadership has tried to hold the power over judiciary.

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ating an independent Pakhtun state is an old agenda of sub nationalist leadership of ANP. New name is not justified by any plausible reason. From its pure historic incarnation it is wrong as till 1901 the province was integral part of Punjab. It was British Empire who divided Punjab on ethnic basis for its own agenda of minimizing threat of revolt from Pushtuns of Punjab and Afghanistan so British came up with a plan of divide and rule which served their purpose successfully. Demographically speaking Pakistan is a very diverse country. There are more non-Pushtuns in Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa(KPK). Demography of former NWFP got changed during 1980’s with a massive influx of refugees from Afghanistan but they were never accepted as part of local population and would eventually leave Pakistani areas once Afghanistan achieve some durable peace. It is a factual error on part of many senior analysts who consider Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa(KPK) as a Pushtun majority province. There are other ethnic groups like Hazarwals (the Hindko speaking people), Saraiki etc. Repercussions over this name for NWFP are already showing signs. Numbers of lives lost in violent incidents particularly in non-Pushtun divisions of the province. Demand of further dividing province on ethnic base has got momentum as well in Hazara division. There is a real threat of confrontation among various ethnic groups in Pakistan as now many sub nationalist elements in other provinces are raising voices for new provinces by further dividing Pakistan on ethno-linguistic basis which would culminate on weakening federation. It is not a secret that real agenda of ANP and other sub nationalists demanding more provinces on ethnic basis is to convert federation of Pakistan into a loosely bounded confederation with provinces having maximum autonomy.

Conclusion
As a result of this amendment, government is standing against judiciary once again. Ethnic politics is on the rise which is another disturbing sign for the federation. Eradication of authoritarian and non democratic clauses from constitution is mandatory for sustainable democracy in the country but the way 17th amendment has been removed it is shameful and perfidious not only for democracy but for the whole nation. Legalization of corruption, encouraging non democratic political culture and sowing ethnic loathing in nation are few heinous things 18th amendment is going to give to already problematic Pakistan. The clauses discussed in this write up must be re evaluated in the parliament with intense brainstorming so that a true vibrant, dependable and clean democratic culture can be nurtured in Pakistan. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, June 2010 (Vol. 1 No. 1)

7 Decentralized & Urban Warfare
Shahzad Masood Roomi

Introduction
Pakistan is in a state of brutal urban war but the ruling elite still remain in fatal denial and consider it a local law and order issue launching Police FIR’s for every act of war by the enemy combatants in this ruthless conflict being waged and fought on the Pakistani streets. This is the 21st century warfare -decentralized, urban, asymmetric high intensity conflict through urban guerillas against a regular army and a state to soften it up for a regular invasion by the hostile armies leading to occupation or dismemberment of the target state. The war doctrine of Pakistani military, media and society still remains embedded in 1965 mindset where wars were fought by regular armies on the international borders. In 1971, Indians deployed urban guerillas in East Pakistan to cripple and bog down regular Pakistan army and then crossed the international borders to wage a two prong war against the Pakistani forces – Urban guerillas and regular Indian armies combined to create that lethal force which broken down Pakistan. Now, another dangerous and sinister dimension has been added to the 1971 phenomenon. The US/NATO factor. Urban guerillas and illegal enemy combatants are softening up the Pakistani armed forces and civil society in a high intensity urban war within Pakistan while Indian battle groups are waiting on the borders to roll in under their Cold start doctrine. The third axis of US and NATO are also waiting on the wings to make another “Iraq” or “Libya” of Pakistan. Pakistan today is well and truly surrounded but the war doctrine remains obsolete not capable to respond to these 21st century threats which have already brought a new generation war upon the nation. US invaded Afghanistan 10 years ago to secure her grand strategic objectives in the region behind the façade of eliminating Al-Qaeda. All the major US strategic objectives for 21st century involve Pakistan in one way or other due to its unique geography. Interestingly, this geography is the biggest strength and vulnerability of Pakistan at the same time. Pakistan has been trapped into ongoing rambling among key global and regional players to get their strategic footprint on entire Eurasian region. After a decade of bloodbath in the entire Af-

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Pak region now the reality of this war has been dawned upon Pakistanis. Reality is that the US invasion was never limited to Afghanistan but Pakistan was its primary target since the beginning. The complexity, clandestine nature of this war and deliberate complicity by a weak, corrupt and compromised government kept the Pakistani security managers oblivious to this emerging threat. CIA established a cloak and dagger HUMINT network across Pakistan. Hundreds of visas were issued to CIA spies disguised as diplomatic personnel while ignoring the need of seeking intelligence clearance by ISI. TTP was created and supported to force Pakistan to own the War on Terror (WoT). This was the most sinister move by the US to compel Pakistan to fight their war. But this was just the beginning, after being dragged into an endless war Pakistan was targeted by the US policy of fragmenting the societies by exploiting various sectarian, religious, ethnic and even economic fault lines to balkanize enemy states from within. This is all part of American style of invasion and war preparations which, in case of Pakistan, have already been moved in advanced stages!

Case Study: Iraq
To understand the restive strategic and military milieu of the entire Pak-Afghan region and draw the bigger picture of the ongoing conflict it would be wise to have a perceptive look at the US strategies of war and pre-war times. Iraq is a classic case in this respect as it was annihilated by the US military might after it was weakened from within through various hidden battles fought by CIA and other western intelligence services. Events unfolded in Pakistan have striking similarities with what was done to Iraq before military invasion. Only difference is of strategy and tactical moves on political and military axis the end game and policy goals remains the same i.e. fragmenting the society, breaking the national cohesion, isolating enemy state globally and balkanize through military invasion. ♦ Iraq was put in a long and treacherous softening up process after first gulf war. Despite having the capability allied forces never removed Saddam Husain. He was ousted only after when he was not required anymore after second gulf war. He was once US crony and was forced to make one blunder after another. Attacking Kuwait in 1990 was also among them.

♦ Iraq was isolated on regional and global level through massive psy-ops of threats of Iraqi WMDs to other Arab states neutralizing entire Iraqi diplomacy to get any support from other Arab nations. ♦ Despite having huge reserve of oil and gas Iraq was never allowed to rebuild its defenses due to various military and economic sanctions imposed on Iraq by UN and US. ♦ Inhuman sanctions were imposed on Iraq. Medicine supplies were completely chocked by the US due to which approximately 5 million children died in between 1992 -2003. ♦ Information and psy-ops onslaught built around propaganda of WMDs was so severe that Iraqi could not develop any adequate defense on information axis. This failure led to complete destruction of Iraq in second gulf war. ♦ Try to mobilize the global community to invade Iraq was next step. Though US presentation about Iraqi WMD blew in the faces of Americans but still US mobilized allied forces and won slient support from regional Arab states to attack Iraq to take control of their WMDs. ♦ Just before the war, US bought up key Iraqi army generals. This was the primary reason behind sweeping march of allied forces through Iraqi cities and towns. No serious fight was ever put as top brass of Iraqi army was compromised already. ♦ Physical invasion was the last step in occupation of Iraq. Due to massive US investment in information, intelligence and subversion there was no resistance faced by the US forces. CIA established its network in Iraq comprising on local agents and their foreign handlers. This network played key role in making successful overt invasion possible later on. ♦ Sheer firepower of the US navy and air force ensured complete destruction of Iraqi command and control capabilities.

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But occupying Iraqi lands were never the endgame instead it was to balkanize that country on sectarian and ethnic lines. After occupying Iraqi cities, US Special Forces, trained in culture, religion and language, unleashed the real death and destruction in Iraqi which still continues. Entire social fabric of Iraq was torn apart by fragmenting it into different isolated crowds which were eliminated afterwards by regular US forces. US forces engaged Shiite and Kurds and isolated them while in Sunni areas Green Zones were established to protect the US forces and rest of Sunni areas are still in Anarchy. After Iraq’s occupation, there was a sudden uprising of Kurds in Northern Iraq which also affected Turkey who later on had to commence a complete counterinsurgency operation inside Iraq to subdue the Kurd uprising.

Lesson Learned
Following lessons can be drawn from the Iraqi war. ♦ No country can survive or avert any invasion of technically and numerically superior in absence of unconventional arsenal. Iraq was not a nuclear state its nuclear program was destroyed by Israel in 1982. ♦ Supplies of invading forces were not dependent on Iraq as US had established her military basis all over ME after the first gulf war. ♦ Iraqi focused on fighting a regular conventional war against Americans based on their experiences of Iran/Iraq war. But the US outmaneuvered them with 4GW. ♦ Iraqi military was not prepared for decentralized urban war. Their cadre became resistance fighter but they were hopelessly short of weapons to fight against US airpower and armour. ♦ Iraqi assault rifles and RPG-7s were not affective against Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) of the mechanized units of the occupation forces. US gunships and A-10 also remained saved as Iraqis had no weapon against these lethal air assets of invading forces.

Iraqi insurgents – defenseless against US air force and armour units

Threat Axis after Osama Bin Laden’s Death
After making a Covert ingress in Pakistan, CIA established its network for espionage, intelligence gathering, subversion and supporting terrorism. With the help of this network, on 2nd May 2011, CIA carried out a secret raid using latest stealth technology in Abbotabad and claimed that Osama Bin Laden (OBL), the most wanted terrorist in the world, has been “killed” during this raid and his body has been buried in sea. Analysts and commentators as well as the US lawmakers demanded any sort of proof from Whitehouse but no credible proof of Osama’s presence in that particular compound or his “killing” was ever furnished. Through this raid, CIA has unleashed the beginning of the end of their strategy against Pakistan in the Great Game which has been going on in the region since last decade. Pakistan has been softened up during the last 10 years due to massive US meddling in political, military, economic and diplomatic levels.

In the end phase Pakistan is faced with worst nightmare of national security where a simultaneous invasion by US and India is much plausible. This is precarious situation for Pakistan’s defense and security managers.

Political and Diplomatic Axis
Pakistan’s epic political and diplomatic failure was proved by the events occurred after American raid in Abbotabad on 2nd May, 2011. The massive unchecked diplomatic and psychological onslaught is the gravest failure of Islamabad where a weak and incompetent government is reigning over the country without any governance whatsoever! Pakistani foreign office is running without any foreign minister there in a time when Pakistan is being targeted by an impetuous scheme to be isolated in comity of nations after being declared a failed and terrorists state. This is gravest threat for Pakistan at the moment in post-Osama scenario and US law makers and opinion makers have already declared Pakistan as epicenter of terror and advising the American congress to cut all kind of aid to Pakistan. If Americans are not doing this that is certainly not due to this government but the fear of suspension of their supply route to Afghanistan is keeping them at the bay! The policy of allowing CIA operators to work inside Pakistan has exposed the real damage done by current

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The price of strategic blunders!!

government to national sovereignty. Current policy of cooperation in so-called WoT is self contradictory and self defeating. During the last 10 years, both military and civilian leadership have failed enormously in anticipation of rather simple fact that Pakistani and American interests in the region cannot have any unanimity in post cold war era. In American foreign policy, India holds the key strategic position in 21st century while Pakistan’s role deemed to be reduced to a subservient state protecting US/Indian interests in region. This arrangement also includes Pakistan surrendering Kashmir cause as well and Pakistan’s Kashmir policy in last 10 years is the most vivid testimony of this assertion. The statements issued by the Pakistani Prime minister and President after US raid in Pakistan must be sufficient indication of paralyzed Pakistani diplomacy and statesmanship. Pakistan failed to tell the world that a military victory and peace cannot be achieved simultaneously in Afghanistan. China was the only country which supported Pakistani stance in post OBL scenario. Rest not a single country was ready to support Pakistan including all Muslim countries as well. This explains the epic diplomatic crisis of Pakistan. Pakistani foreign office has failed in presenting the case of legitimate Pakistani security interests on international level. Recent agreement with US to carry out joint operations against any high value target is again going to serve the US interests only. Seeking such permission was CIA’s old dream. Any operation by US forces in North Waziristan Agency would be entitled as join operation in the media to put Haqqani network and other militant groups against Pakistan army forcing it to launch a military operation against Afghan Taliban. On the other hand, US is busy in talks with Afghan Taliban. A fire fight between Pakistan army and Afghan Taliban would further endanger Pakistan’s internal security. Secondly, This agreement is in complete contradiction of Pakistan’s earlier demands to US that CIA must eliminate its intelligence network in Pakistan. this agreement would prevent Pakistan from demanding the same anymore. Apart from that, current agreement is violation of resolution adopted by parliament in its joint in-camera session according to which Pak-US relations would be revisited along with policy on drone strikes. But by succumbing to US pressure, government has served anti-Pakistan interests only.

Information Warfare Axis
Just like Iraq, media and information warfare axis is the weakest link in Pakistan’s defenses. Pakistan has failed in formulating a national media and information policy and strategizing a plan to counter the anti-Pakistan and hostile enemy propagana both in peace and war times based on that policy. This historic failure is now haunting Pakistan’s national security like never before! Pakistan, especially the intelligence apparatus of the country, is faced with most hardnosed media attacks after 2nd May, 2011. According to reports, 150,000,000 various analysis reports, editorials, blogs, op-ed, polls, survey and investigative news were published in print and electronic media and internet. Most of these entries were part of a sinister campaign waged to manufacture global consent about Pakistan being a failed, terrorist sponsoring and harboring state which presents a grave threat to global peace and security. Pakistani media and perception management capabilities (read inabilities) of government have been exposed. Most of the media assets, anchors, and analysts have become part of vicious psy-ops launched to confuse masses, soften up the country and demoralized armed forces after massive US investment in Pakistani media. These media assets never uttered a word of appreciation in the past when ISI captured numbers of Al-Qaeda operatives. An investment of $50 million was made specifically for perception management of the US interests in Pakistan. SMS campaign against Pakistan army and air force after OBL episode was part of demoralizing plan against armed forces. There is not a single English Pakistani channel exists with global outreach and vision of presenting Pakistani prospective about the events happening in and around Pakistan neither there a panel of experts exists from Pakistan to defend Pakistan on international media. Instead of asking very basic question regarding the American operation in Abbotabad, Pakistani media was busy in feeding all the information coming from Pentagon and the Whitehouse. All the presence of patriotic Pakistanis on cyber space is individuals’ initiatives who have taken over the role of defending Pakistan and its armed forces on various international defense forums but still absence of a collective national vision and policy regarding media front is making the job of our enemies much easier.

Internal Security Axis
The announcement to “avenge” the “killing” of OBL from Al-Qaeda and TTP is nothing more than an attempt to create a rationale for their next terrorist attacks inside mainland Pakistan to further the hidden agenda of their masters. The terrorist attack on FC recruits in Shabqadar area of Charsadda must serve as clear signal about more such attacks in coming days. Apart from them all the terrorists and militants groups including previously Pro-Pakistan are being mobilized to create mutiny against the state. This is the most sinister aspect of post-OBL security scenario. Any upheaval against the state in Punjab and Sindh would turn the internal security crisis out of control. Pakistani intelligence apparatus is already under severe pressure due to massive policy failure which has allowed foreign intelligence agencies to setup their own networks inside Pakistan. These networks are colluding with various militant groups to create sectarian unrest, revolt and terrorism after hijacking and compromising them. Recent case of Raymond Davis must be enough to gauge the extent of CIA’s penetration in Pakistani society and state.

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The inability of leadership and media in differentiating between Pakistani Talibans (TTP) and Afghan Taliban remains the most concerning aspect of ongoing 4GW. This failure has enabled CIA to manipulate the term of terrorism and bring Pakistan under pressure while fact remains that TTP is the biggest asset of CIA in Pakistan wrecking havoc in Pakistan’s urban centers. In such a precarious internal security situation, an external invasion would be the last thing any Pakistani strategist would ever dare to think about.
CIA contract Killers – Revenge of democracy!!

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Ethnic and Linguistic Axis
Baluchistan has remained the next battlefield amid top US analysts and military strategist. Since 2004-05, supporting the insurrection in Baluchistan on ethnic and linguistic lines has remained the primary task of the CIA/RAW. Baluchistan is the key in the US game plan in the region as this province of Pakistan has the potential to serve as the key to development and prosperity of South East Asia, Central Asia, Iran and China; A complete strategic nightmare for US policy goals. Dismantling this potential and craving a corridor for direct access to Afghanistan from Arabian Sea in order to secure US/NATO supply lines is the US dream. And to the US advantage, century old ethnic and linguistic fault lines for craving Pakistan exist to be exploited! In Post OBL scenario, there is a sudden up rise in Baluch nationalism and rhetoric of independent Baluchistan. This uprising is surprisingly has striking similarities with recent “Arab Spring” which jolted entire Middle East and states beyond that. On the other hand, BLA is being supported covertly by the CIA/RAW. According to reports, so far 1200 US/NATO containers carrying weapons have been disappeared in Baluchistan before reaching Chaman border. Investigations done by Pakistani authorities have also identified that insurgents are using latest weapons in their activities against the state. For the US, helping Baluchi insurgent groups is part of their plan against China and her access to Arabian Sea through Gawadar port. But this is not all, in late 2007, Bush administration sanctioned $400 million plan to support militants groups inside Iran using Baluchistan. Since then, Jindullah has carried out multiple terrorist attacks like suicide bombing inside Iran using Pakistani soil. Jindullah was created and funded by the CIA and JSOC teams working in Baluchistan to hunt Iranian leadership and to disrupt Pak-Iran relations which in pre-

Jindullah – CIA’s gift to Pak-Iran relations

vious wars against India supported Pakistan on economic and diplomatic front.

Economic Axis
Pakistani economy in its current shape is not supporting Pakistan armed forces in their fight against militancy and supporting and sustaining a war is out of question with current economic profile of the country. Strategically critical oil reserves of the country are all time low making national defenses vulnerable in such grave circumstances where all the precursors of a physical invasion have been emplaced. Economic meltdown is the biggest gift of Pakistani democracy. Economy has almost collapsed with national exchequer totally bank corrupt only relying on IMF loans and indirect taxation which is creating complete anarchy and chaos on streets. Pakistan state bank has been reduced to a press machine printing Rs. 3 billion per day causing dangerous inflation. Why does the United States keep pouring aid into Pakistan despite its active support for the Taliban in Afghanistan at the expense of U.S.-NATO forces and its inability or unwillingness to help the United States root out al-Qaeda from its mountain sanctuaries? This is a common question in western media now a day and there is a great deal of possibility that not only Pakistan’s aid can be cut but sanctions are also among most probable outcomes in next couple of months. If occurred, these will further haunt Pakistan and its defenses.

Military Axis
If exploitation of internal ethnic, linguistic and sectarian fault lines was not enough to balkanize Pakistan now it is facing a dismal threat of physical invasion from Eastern and Western borders and from Arabian Sea in South as well where Pakistan Navy has no deterrence against might of combined US and Indian naval flotilla especially after a deadly terrorists attack on PNS Mehran base in which Pakistan Navy’s 2 P3-C Orien maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare planes. As 2 other Oriens of Pakistan Navy are in US for upgrade this attack has decapitated Pakistan Navy’s surveillance capabilities to an alarming extent. US has already breach Pakistan’s defenses using hi-tech military power and vowed to rehash it if any other Al-Qaeda or Taliban leader found there on Pakistani soil. The ensuing mistrust between ISI and CIA can lead a joint operation to unpleasant culmination. Prior to US raid, Pakistan armed forces had no threat perception from the Western frontier on such a scale. But this particular incident and consistent opinion of some US leaders about Pakistan’s complicity in WoT have diametrically change the threat perception from this unprotected border! A directly military confrontation between Pakistan and US has remained old Indian dream. With rising friction between Pakistan and the US on Western theater, Indian army concluded a month long military exercise along Pakistan’s Eastern borders few days back. What a most probable worst case scenario can emerge for national security after the claimed “killing” of OBL on Pakistani soil? Is Pakistan ready to face multi-prong military invasion into her borders? What are the options left with Pakistan to avoid this nightmarish scenario while protecting its security interest in the region at the same time? These are critical questions require analyzing the whole picture of conflict once again.

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Analysis
Pakistan has been in a stage where Iraq was during soften-up process since 2005 and now it looks like that this soften-up process is in its last stages. Pakistan Army is already under extreme stress, thinned out and has given heavy casualties and is fighting under great economic stress due to overall economic collapse of the country. On the other hand, entire judicial system has collapsed offering no support to state or LEAs in fight against terrorism and insurgents. But still Pakistan strategic equation has some factors which are denying any Iraq style allied invasion for now. ♦ Pakistan is still a nuclear state. Nuclear deterrence is the ultimate strategic deterrence against numerically and technically superior adversary.

Strategic Weapons – Ultimate Deterrence

♦ Army is still intact despite being thinned out. Pakistan’s command and control system is one of the most efficient military mechanisms around the world. ♦ NATO supply lines through Pakistan are the ultimate leverage Pakistan holds against US/NATO. This is the reason why the US is not pressing too much against Pakistani military establishment as another coup in Islamabad would jeopardize the US game plan in the region. ♦ China Factor: Chinese have supported Pakistani case after OBL “killing”. Right now Americans are fully aware that if they push Pakistan too much they would lose it forever to SCO and China and also that in presence of Pak-China relations, they just cannot isolate Pakistan. On the other hand, China has huge strategic stakes in Pakistan’s stability which by default make Pakistan a primary US target as the China is emerging

globally as key player to end American status of being sole super power in the world. The resolve shown by the Chinese government after OBL episode to support and defend Pakistan is a big hurdle for the US/NATO to put their end game in motion straight away.

Considering the unique geo-strategic and political position of Pakistan, the US /NATO working on a comprehensive 2 step plan to isolate and disarm Pakistan. These two steps are critical prerequisites before waging a full blown conventional war against Pakistan from both Eastern and Western theaters simultaneously. The US/NATO or India cannot invade Pakistan till it preserves its nuclear strike capability. This is first time Pakistani nuclear program is facing a physical threat from Western border. Presence of JSOC units in Afghanistan and on ground CIA covert network in Pakistan along with Black Water like mercenary organization poses a direct challenge for Pakistan’s LEAs particularly around the sensitive strategic installations. Recently, UK spies, guised as diplomatic officials, were caught from vicinity of KRL. This incident was not without precedent; similar “diplomatic” officials of the US have been caught from other cities of Pakistan as well. Some of them were also rusticated but were given visas again by compromised government. Pentagon is now openly unveiling its real endgame in the region through various intelligence leaks. Recently, London based Sunday Express unearthed a secret US plan to “secure” Pakistan’s strategic weapon and delivery system sites including PAF central command at Sargodha. These are ominous developments in post OBL scene. 2nd May incident has proved to be a convenient excuse to blame Pakistan for the epic US failure in Afghanistan. Certainly, any misadventure to take control of Pakistani nuclear facilities would stir a string of uncontrollable events with great probability of destabilizing the whole South East Asia including India and beyond! From now on, possible outcome of OBL operation and currently prevailing intelligence crisis between ISI and CIA can lead to two possibilities. 1. US start withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011 as announced by Obama administration and com plete this process in 2014. 2. US prolong its stay in the region and expand its so-called war on terror to the urban centers of Pakistan. May 2 operation by JSOC/SAD is most vivid manifestation of this policy. Now even with first possibility, US forces would remain in Afghanistan till 2014; that is almost 42 months from

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now on and that is lots of time for the US to expand the war on terror to the other parts of the country as well and there are unambiguous signals are being sent from Washington in this regard. The intelligence cooperation has been ended after CIA head Leon Panetta accused Pakistan for complicity without any proof whatsoever. "It was decided that any effort to work with the Pakistanis could jeopardize the mission. They might alert the targets," he told Time. Threat of a US led incursion into Pakistan to secure its nuclear arsenal is a clear and present danger. Most likely strategy would be to declare Pakistan as dysfunctional state not capable nuclear weapon safe. The US intelligence community is determined to target Pakistan under various pretexts; like any high profile terrorist attack anywhere in the world, presence of Al-Qaeda leadership on Pakistani soil and alleged complicity of some intelligence officials in hunting down Al-Qaeda. To achieve this CIA and other hostile agencies have invested in Pakistan heavily on multiple fronts and now this investment is paying dividend like never before 1. False flag terrorist operation would be done including nuclear dirty bomb which would be blamed on Pakistan. This is the most sinister aspect of rationale that will be used to encircle Pakistan on diplomatic, economic and finally military axis. 2. Massive support to TTP, BLA, insurgent groups, separatists, Sub nationalist will be provided to attack Pakistan army and state critical infrastructure. 3. Massive global Psy-ops are already underway and it is going to get more intensified in coming months. This media campaign is very systematically built around the “insecurities and threats” posed by TTP and insurgents groups to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. 4. UN mandate would be taken to disarm Pakistan Nuclear weapons. These efforts are already underway in guise of various disarmament and control treaties. Most recently Pakistan has remained under severe pressure from international community to change its stance regarding Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT). But more ominously, recent media leaks by Pentagon clearly indicate that the US might try to

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Anticipated terrorist nuclear attack – Classic Psy-op

achieve this goal on her own using technically superior military might. 5. Externally, Pakistan would face physical threats from 3 sides with TTP, BLA, Al-Qaeda creating mayhem in the country breaking all critical national cohesion i. ii. iii. US/NATO (From West) Indians (From East) Naval Blockade / Amphibious Landing on Pakistani beaches(From South)

6. US/NATO would not put their boots on mainland but would use air power, Satellite and drones to attack and observe Pakistani defenses. Except from Gawader, cutting through Baluchistan, where Pakistan army is not present and would not able to resist due to NATO airpower and anarchy there would be no ground incursion in other areas in mainland Pakistan .As described previously that the real US game is to carving off Baluchistan to create a more “helpful and cooperative” independent Baluhchistan. So US/ NATO forces will concentrate their ground operations in Western theater only.

Gawader –China road link – American strategic nightmare!

7. Rest of the mainland would face onslaught by Indian army’s IGBs in Eastern Theater while TTP and other insurgent groups would unleashed death and destruction internally. 8. From South, for the US/Indian Navies Karachi would be the main center of the focus to block Pakistan’s economic lifeline particularly fuel supplies. Preliminary work on the strategy of carving off Baluchistan has been started a long ago by CIA and other intelligence agencies working inside Pakistan. During “Balochistan International Conference 2011” held in Washington D.C., calls were made for “international intervention” to liberate Baluchistan .Today, most of the Baluchi opposition leaders live in exile in the US, UK, and France with a government in exile formed in Israel. These exiled Baluchi leaders live among the myriad of Libyans, Egyptians, Syrians, Thais, Chinese, Iranians, all

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Paid sinister Psy-ops to build case for Azad Baluchistan

working with foreign aid to subvert and overthrow the governments in their homelands. In this conference, a presentation was given based on the antics that led up to a military attack on Libya, and similar rhetoric being used to set the ground work for intervention in Syria. Though maps of redrawing the entire Middle East were released a few years back just to have an idea of the reaction but in actuality this is the plan behind the entire façade of global war on terror. US need to expand her military footprint just like it did in Afghanistan and now soon focus is going to be shifted towards Pakistan. CIA/RAW invested not only on BLA and Jindullah but politically sub nationalist and separatist secessionists were also supported through finances and media. In a war with this worsening situation in Baluchistan, Pakistan would be in complete military and economic chaos and anarchy which includes blocking fuel supplies, destruction of power and gas pipelines and breakdown of communication networks. Would be the time when Indian will decide to launch their Cold Start. Pakistan would be encircled from all sides with Pakistan army forced to fight a decentralized urban asymmetric war against regular as well as irregular forces. The deployed US strategy in military campaigns in the world today proves that in any future war, US would strive to decapitate the leadership, break central command and control systems, freeze or Jam all electronic communication systems and divide the war zone into multiple smaller fragments to isolate the enemy military leadership from the main body of their force. These results in confusion and disorientation in the enemy forces which are then easily annihilated using superior firepower. This has worked for them in Afghanistan and in Iraq and would also be deployed in more future campaigns even against Pakistan. First phase of softening up the enemy state through fragmentation on sectarian and ethnic lines has been completed almost. Major urban centers like Karachi, Quetta and Peshawar have been set on fire.

After OBL “assassination”, acts of military aggression both on Eastern and Western borders were witnessed. On May 17th 2011, Indian PM Manmohan Singh called upon a meeting of his military commanders after Indian army violated the Pakistani sovereignty and killed 2 Pakistanis with a mortar fire in Sialkot sector. On the same day, NATO forces violated Western border when a NATO gunship did heavy shelling on a Pakistani check post injuring two Pakistani soldiers. Clearly friction is rising among all the stakeholders in region. These are desperate times for Pakistan to take some desperate measures for national security. Future war would be fought in urban environment where conventional armour and artillery are of little use. Pakistani armed forces are still not geared to re-adjust to this rapidly changing global reality of enhanced and diversified threats. The national security doctrine of Pakistan is still India specific and so are our strategic weapons. The need is getting urgent that Pakistan should radically redefine its national security doctrine from country specific to region specific with radically different and practical strategies to respond to our specific threats.

Response Strategy
Pakistani response must be initiated at policy level which forms the highest point of overall defense pyramid followed by strategic and tactical level decisions underneath. Some early actions taken by the Pakistani military to regain the confidence of patriots and clear their position by directly approaching the political elite asking for a clear policy on war on terror, drone and Pak-US relations are once against losing their impact after government and military leadership accepted old CIA demand of joint operation inside.

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Political and Diplomatic Response Realization of the fact that Pakistan’s failure is not at strategic or tactical level rather it is a policy failure is the first and primary requirement of the current situation. Pakistan is in need of a robust policy shift from US dependence in conventional warfare to regional security setup including Iran, China and if possible Turkey. Prevailing security crisis demands for a collective security arrangement on the regional basis. To achieve this Pakistan will have to bring about decisive change in its foreign policy and diplomatic posturing. Diplomacy is still Pakistan largest and most powerful option that can avert potential war threat provided Pakistani government and foreign office play their cards carefully. Pakistan must embrace its role as key strategic player in the region with signing a collective defense pact with China. Chinese have proposed collective security arrangement for Asia. ♦ Post OBL national security scenario calls for a rethink and revisit Pak-US relations. In the recent briefing to the parliament has made it clear that military leadership is all willing to accept any foreign policy adopted by civilian government. ♦ There must be a decisive policy shift on geopolitical level to get out of MNNA status and diplomatic efforts must commence to make Pakistan into SCO. Chinese appeal of regional security setup must be responded unequivocally. Not only that but Pakistan must built a joint diplomatic front asking US to leave Afghanistan as now finally OBL is officially “dead” there is no reason for foreign forces to be in Afghanistan. ♦ US drone attacks against innocent tribal are fragmenting the Pakistani society on ethnic basis dangerously. CIA simply has no legal mandate for these attacks. Pakistan must mobilize its foreign office to seek an end to this illicit war inside Pakistan. Using international laws in this regard must be top priority. ♦ Pakistan must end her role in American WoT and continue its own war against foreign funded insurgencies and terrorism. Afghan Taliban must not be our concern. ♦ Free passage of NATO supply lines must be put to an end; Every NATO container going through Pakistan must be taxed. This has been delayed but it can be done and is a must to do task.

NATO supply truck – Must be taxed now!

Military Response ♦ US must be enlisted in perceived threats to national security and strategic assets just like India. Pakistani military leadership will have to rethink and redraw the whole national security and defense doctrine with US as potential threat to national security. As there is no question of military parity between the two nations so Pakistan’s response on Western theater must be totally asymmetric in nature. ♦ Emerging security threats demand for de-centralizing the national defense and creation of four independent Commands. Every command should be able to fight independent war. It must be made clear that at tactical level field commanders will have to take their own split-second decisions under extremely hostile nerve breaking circumstances which will shape the events of war. Hence, independent thinking, courage, vision and leadership quality of young officers would play a decisive role. • • • • The Northern Command with Corps in Peshawar, Pindi and Mangla. The Eastern Command with Corps in Gujranwala, Lahore, Bahawalpur and Multan. The Southern Command with Corps in Karachi and a flotilla of Navy. The Western Command with Corps in Quetta and a naval flotilla in Gawader.

♦ Complete operational synergy among all three sister forces (army, air force and navy) would be extremely vital in future conflict. This inter-force and intra-force synergy demands for robust tactical thinking and having advanced C4I capabilities. Pakistan armed forces must embrace joint operation doctrine as with CIA’s war whistle have made it clear that threats faced by forces on land, sea and air would be of diverse nature. ♦ PAF has no long range high altitude SAM system to provide aerial cover to the sensitive strategic locations in the country. On the other hand, Indian air force is well equipped with Russian S-300 SAM with a range in excess of 100KM and operational altitude in excess of 25 KM. Apart from that, advanced 3D radars acquired from Israel would pose a serious challenge to future SEAD/DEAD ops of PAF deep into enemy territory. So acquisition of long range anti-radiation missiles and enhancing jamming and EW/ECM warfare must be among top priorities. ♦ Stealth detection technology exists in the world and not being able to detect would not be an excuse for PAF in future conflict. India is active partner in Russian next generation stealth fighter T-50 which will be part of Indian air force by the end of current decade ♦ Rising of information and cyber defense command. Iranian nuclear program has suffered multiple cyber attack from Israel and it would be prudent to assume that Pakistan’s critical cyber infrastructure can become under attack as well. ♦ Fighting a war on resistance with-

T-50 Indo-Russian Joint Venture – Future stealth challenge for PAF

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out any external help has always proved a painful experience for the defending nations but it also has caused serious military and economic fatalities to invaders as well. Due to massive conventional disparity between Pakistan and joint Indo-US military alliance the possibility of such a war in Pakistan is all time high. Nation will have to be prepared for any such future conflict involving three nuclear capable countries fighting an intense conventional yet asymmetric and irregular war. 1. Crash course of patriotic youth and citizen into use of assault rifles and small arms. Apart from that, Shoulder fired SAMs and light weight AGTMs units will have to be raised comprising on irregular combatants. For this to be achieved, Pakistan must build huge inventory of SAMs, AGTMs as well as light weapon for urban street warfare including night vision devices and communication equipment.

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SAMs – Need more of these

2. Pakistan must raise a fighting strength comprising on 5 million irregular combatants. Specifically trained in city based defense and close quarter combat as a second tier behind the army. 3. Military courts must be invoked and caretaker setup is must to run the country and clean up the mess. Currently judicial failure in convicting the terrorists has been proved biggest undermining factor for army’s fight against menace of terrorism and insurgencies. Every country in the world, except Pakistan, brought about decisive changes in their judicial and legal framework according to emerging security threats but Pakistan failed to catch up and is now paying a heavy price as almost all the

terrorists captured by army and LEAs got released by the courts due to presence of inherit flaws in judicial systems. Giving military courts the charge would lessen the burden on civilian courts and would also help in convicting the terrorists and traitors promptly. This judicial failure is a big loophole in entire strategy against the terrorism and must be plugged now.

Conclusion
Every patriot must prepare for protracted war under hostile and adverse urban environment. Pakistan can be turned into next Baghdad. Pakistan is faced with a real diplomatic and military challenge amid a breathtaking global psy-ops to build a case against Pakistan being a failed, weak and terrorist supporting state. Pakistan still does not have a civil defence program nor have we re-written our strategic doctrine from country specific to regional specific. Pakistan has also not yet acquired overseas bases for force projection capabilities nor have any attempts made seriously to re-program the psychological and emotional mindset of our military for such a scenario. The new decentralizing of military command must be the first logical step towards preparing the army for warfare in 21st century. It is late already but we have not missed the deadline as yet. Failing to take these precautions will only increase the risks to national survival and integrity and would raise the stakes for the nation manifolds. While the US has accomplished first phase of his grand strategic objectives in Iraq and Afghanistan by fragmenting both the countries. Pakistan remains the last bastion of Islamic civilization, the ultimate prize in its war. This is perhaps the last chance for us to rethink and reprioritize our strategic options in accordance with our own needs. Despite all the rhetoric of strategic partner, the US is only friend of her and would protect only her interests even if it comes at cost of Pakistan and this bitter reality has dawned upon us, yet again but this time there is no margin of error!! *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, May 2011 (Vol. 1 No. 12)

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8 War on Terror & Judicial Collapse
in Pakistan
Shahzad Masood Roomi

The prevailing chaos and crisis the Pakistani society is entangled in is not merely a law and order problem but the result of a covert war, wherein the irregular enemy war combatants are ruthlessly attacking the Pakistani state and nation. Ironically, the national law-making institutions, political leadership as well as the military establishment have remained oblivious to this fact since the last decade. All this government is trying to do is to overcome this daunting challenge via various administrative measures relying on common practices of peace time law and order situation like police FIR’s, criminal investigations and looking towards the collapsed judicial system for any permanent solution. Consequently, the national internal security profile continues to get bleaker with every passing day. Except for military response and efforts, national security has been compromised in one way or the other at diplomatic and political level as there is no realization of the war which is being waged against Pakistan. Diplomacy had failed a long time ago after a policy level disaster in 2001 when Pakistan joined WoT without negotiating anything for its own national interests. The national media has been handed over to paid and sold out analysts and anchors. Political parties shamelessly indulge in mud-slinging and point scoring and the economy is in complete chaos. In this scenario, the judiciary had remained the only hope to keep intact the people’s faith in the state by providing justice and prompt punishment of the culprits. But unfortunately, in Pakistan, the judicial collapse has emerged as the worst one thus far and due to this the hopes of the masses in the judiciary have been shattered and placed the national security in complete panic on the internal axis as well. This failure has led the whole nation to the brink of complete social anarchy. A glimpse of this horrendously possible situation can be seen in many of our urban centers, particularly in Karachi. Subsequently, this leaves the military as the only institution to bear the entire burden of fighting a covert irregular urban war in Pakistani cities where the Non-State Violent Actors (NSVA’s) have been used by hostile forces in the region and world. Law Enforcement Agencies and military are fighting an extremely complex, nerve-wracking and endless war within the Pakistani borders against foreign funded NSVA’s. The judicial crisis is so severe that the military top brass has openly expressed their unease with the current state of judiciary visà-vis convicting the terrorists. Finally the military top brass has marked the Achilles' heel in the entire chain of administrative and governance measures to combat this menace.

State of Pakistani Anti-Terrorism Legislation
Unlike the world community, not a single legislation attempt was made after 9/11 to prevent and obstruct terrorist activities on Pakistani soil. This negligence provided opportunities to the global terrorist organizations to establish their financial and personnel networks inside Pakistan particularly in FATA and Baluchistan. Now both these areas have been turned into battle zones where the LEA’s and intelligence agencies had failed to check these terror networks preemptively due to the absence of any clear anti-terrorism policy and adequate legal tools to avert the plans of these terrorist groups. But that was just the beginning! Consequently, when the hostile intelligence agencies established a cloak-and-dagger terror networks in Afghanistan and FATA, which were completely asymmetric and irregular in nature and operation, the shortcomings of the Pakistani laws for the purpose of internal security were exposed completely. Pakistan is under attack but ironically the Pakistani government, the institutions and the lawmakers are still debating over how to improve the law and order situation? While the country is being attacked by foreign funded murderers and anarchists, even the realization of the need to discuss these challenges and building responses is not there among the political elite of the country which is too busy in plundering, looting and power-grabbing games. There is simply no question of any political will or the capacity to undertake this challenging task! The brief history of anti-terrorism laws in Pakistan vividly explains the sheer lack of commitment and earnestness by the Pakistani politicians. The last anti-terrorism act was promulgated in 1997. Though the term “terrorism” was defined for the first time in this law but this definition is certainly not going to help in coping with the threats of the ongoing multifaceted covert war. Apart from that, special Anti-Terrorism Courts (ATC’s) were established along with the Anti-Terrorism Appellate (ATA) tribunal. But it was declared un-

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constitutional by the Supreme Court of Pakistan right after it was enacted for the first time in 1997. Instead of addressing the SC’s objections through amending the conflicting articles, the then government issued the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Ordinance. Apart from being a subject of reissuance by the President after every four months, this ordinance actually made the original anti-terrorism act of 1997 quite ineffective in terms of investigating and convicting the suspects and terrorists as the special Appellate Tribunals were disbanded, appeals against the decisions of the ATC’s were henceforth to be filed in the respective High Courts. Also, the restrictions were placed on the earlier act’s provisions regarding the trial in absentia to accord with regular legal procedures. After these changes, law and order situation worsened once again, particularly in Sindh. The Government introduced Pakistan Armed Forces (Acting in Aid of Civil Power) Ordinance, 1998 through which broad judicial powers were given to the army units deployed in Karachi. Additionally, a new crime with the name of "civil commotion" was also introduced to punish anyone involved in creating internal disturbances in violation of law or intended to violate the law, commencement or continuation of illegal strikes, go-slows, lock-outs, vehicle snatching/lifting, damage to or destruction of State or private property, random firing to create panic, charging extortion, acts of criminal trespass, distributing, publishing or pasting of a handbill or making graffiti or wall-chalking intended to create unrest or fear or create a threat to the security of law and order. But before the military could bring about a positive change to the situation, the Supreme Court once again declared the ordinance as unconstitutional as the politicians of opposition (current government) filed cases against the validity of this Ordinance. The Ordinance was declared as unconstitutional once again as it had no legal authority and effect according to the SC. Later on the Armed Forces (Acting in Aid of Civil Power) Ordinance was repealed in April 1999. However, "civil commotion" is still included as a crime under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997. In August 1999, the original 1997 Act was amended to authorize the establishment of ATC’s all over the country. But these decisions failed because of the following factors: 1. The authority of the military to curb the culprits was repealed by the Supreme Court. On the other hand, the politicians did not address the primary legal weakness in conviction of terrorists which is the law of evidence. It is still based on accounts of eyewitnesses instead of investigating the cases on scientific basis. Due to the prevailing sense of insecurity, the eyewitnesses often do not come forth to identify the terrorists which make their acquittals easy from the courts. 2. LEA’s had no authority to preemptively monitor, search and investigate the suspects without obtaining legal warrants. 3. Appeals against the decisions by the ATC’s were to be made in the civilian courts which killed the entire rationale of establishing ATC’s. After 9/11, the anti-terrorism act of 1997 was sought to be improved through the ordinances, but that provision is no more with the President after the 18th Amendment, passed last year, which disallows the president from rectifying the ordinance again. On the other hand, the country continues to suffer widespread terror-

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Karachi - Police at war with criminals while Supreme Court failed to punish the political mafia protecting criminals.

ism and invites frequent comments from the western media regarding its failure in ensuring peace and maintaining law and order. The epic judicial and legislative failure depicts the following picture of current situation: ♦ Anti-terrorism laws are outdated. They were made before 9/11 and the initiation of the 4GW against Pakistan hence they do not provide any assistance to the armed forces in their fight against the enemy irregular war combatants. These laws are rather counter-productive as a large number of the combatants have been released by the courts due to the presence of loopholes in these laws. ♦ The current anti-terrorism law addresses the prevailing security crisis as a law and order situation rather than encompassing the terrorism and insurgencies as acts of war. ♦ Civilian courts have been unable to convict and punish terrorists through the legal process. This failure puts the security forces under more pressure in their fight against terrorism and insurgencies. The enemy war combatants, released by the civil courts, rejoin their cadre to launch fresh attacks against the security forces making their counterinsurgency ops way more difficult and at times futile. ♦ More than 1000 trained irregular war combatants, captured by the security forces during the daring operations in Swat and Bajur, were released by the civil courts due to inherent legal flaws in the law of evidence. ♦ Not a single terrorist has been convicted and sentenced to death since the last decade and the possibility of doing so would remain next to none unless the current laws go through a complete overhaul according to the needs of irregular urban warfare. ♦ The Pakistani parliament has failed to come up with a unanimous definition of the term ‘terrorism’. There is no political consensus on dealing with this challenge. The subsequent policy failure stems from this inability of national law making institutions. ♦ In the absence of a comprehensive judicial policy to combat terrorism and the foreign funded war combatants, security forces at times have to take harsh decisions which later on become an excuse for the hostile forces and compromised media elements to malign them. Media trial of the security forces after the recent incidents in Quetta and Karachi is the clearest manifestation of this assertion. The current government had established National Counter-terrorism Authority (NACTA) in 2009 with funding from the EU to devise a comprehensive anti-terrorism plan. At this point in time, the presence of this organization even after two years is nominal. Its role has been defined merely as an advisory body. Any sort of political consensus regarding the realization of this ongoing war has not been achieved yet and there is no consensus in sight, in the near future, over this grave threat to the nation. The mainstream political parties like PML(N) are hell-bent on blaming the armed forces and the intelligence agencies for their political goals. When the country is bleeding and the security forces’ personnel are giving the ultimate sacrifices daily, this behavior is completely treacherous! But again, there is no law to put this utter nonsense to an end. More unfortunately, there is no realization, even on judicial level, about the impact of this mud-slinging on the armed forces. Resultantly, these politicians are playing the role of enemy collaborators in demoralizing the armed forces. This judicial failure has put the security forces and their counterinsurgency ops in a very difficult position on the legal axis. If they eliminate the terrorists and insurgents in these operations then the media, the HR

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organizations and even the courts, start raising questions of legality and authority of such operations and if they bring the terrorists to the courts they get easy acquittals and rejoin their cadres to resume their attacks against the state and the armed forces. The Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997 is vague and cannot guarantee the adequate legal support to the armed forces. Not only has this Act been unable to provide enough authority to the LEA’s and intelligence agencies in the current chaotic security situation, it also has no effective protection for the witnesses and judges in terror related cases. Finally, it has no provision or penalty for the political entities having links with terrorists and foreign funded mercenaries. These are the serious shortcomings of Pakistani anti-terrorist laws and must be plugged in by strict but consensually constituted laws at the federal level and their implementation must be severely ensured.

Final Word
There is a dire need of radical measures to be adopted both at policy and practice levels on the legal axis of the overall national security policy. Right now, visible lacunas prevail in Pakistan’s anti-terrorist laws due to the completely confused and compromised legislative. The nation and the armed forces would continue to suffer and bleed in the presence of the current anti-terrorism laws. Tactical victories against the enemy irregular war combatants would remain futile if these gains are not nurtured at the administrative and political levels and this is exactly where Pakistan needs to act decisively and swiftly. Peace time laws cannot deliver during wars; the sooner the nation and leadership understand this fact the better it would be. Till the formulation of a comprehensive judicial policy as per the national security requirements, military act must be invoked immediately in order to punish the enemy combatants and put the fear of Allah in their hearts. This task should have been done a long time ago; any further delay would be suicidal for Pakistan. *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, June 2011 (Vol. 2 No. 1)

9 Fighting Insurgency

Religious and Sectarian Dynamics
Zaid Hamid

Pakistan is in a state of war, fighting an asymmetric high intensity war within its own borders against an Indian backed terrorist insurgency with a religious facade, which is based in the remote tribal regions bordering Afghanistan, but is waging a ruthless, decentralized war against the State as well as the civilian population in the mainland, urban environment. In the last 3 years alone, on the average, Pakistan has suffered a suicide attack, a bomb explosion, or an attack on the security forces, almost on daily basis. Hundreds of the finest officers and soldiers, as well as thousands of civilians have given their lives in a war, which has cast a staggering toll on Pakistan’s economy and society. At least 3 serving Army Generals, many Brigadiers and other senior military officers have died in ambushes, suicide attacks and assaults by the insurgent militants on military and civil installations in major cities of Pakistan. Regional offices of Pakistan’s military led Intelligence agency, ISI have been attacked. Even GHQ was targeted for an audacious attempt at targeting military leadership. At one point in Swat, almost 2.5 million people had to leave their homes in a mass migration to allow Pakistan army to conduct military operations in an area larger than England. Cantonment and sensitive areas of Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Rawalpindi give the looks of cities under fortress defenses. Universities, hospitals, hotels, bazaars, funeral ceremonies, Masjids, schools – none have escaped the most ruthless and bloody war by the TTP terrorists. Till 2007 and 2008, the TTP was wreaking its reign of terror almost unchecked, with large regions of Swat valley and FATA under their influence. But then the army began to put a clamp on this new form of 4th generation war, although the Pakistan army was not initially trained for this kind of warfare, mentally, emotionally, militarily or logistically. Fighting a high intensity, counter insurgency war inside its own borders, in an urban environment, within the cities, was not the form of warfare any army would want to fight. Despite the lack of any previous experience to fight such a war, Pakistan army performed with stunning success, breaking the back of the insurgency in Swat, capturing the South Waziristan bastion of the terrorists and taking back almost all regions of FATA, which were previously under the terrorists’ control. However, it’s not over yet and the war continues in remote tribal regions as well as in the cities where insurgents regularly cause chaos, assassinations and bomb attacks. The centre of gravity for the terrorists is in Afghanistan from where they get their weapons, money and are provided sanctuaries – backed by CIA, Afghan regime and Indian RAW. So far, Pakistan has been fighting a reactive war within its own borders and has left the safe havens of the insurgents untouched inside Afghanistan.

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On another axis, on a lesser intensity, CIA, RAW and Afghan RAMA have stirred up another insurgency in Baluchistan by supporting the Secular Marxist Pakistani Baluch Separatists, seeking to break Baluchistan away from Pakistan. The mode of operations against the State include, blowing up gas lines, destroying power cables and State infrastructures as well as attacking security forces and assassinating nonBaluch settlers from the rest of the country. Baluchistan constitutes of 42% area of Pakistan but comprises of only 4% of population divided between Pashtuns, Baluchis, Makranis, Brahwis and Sindhis. With only a small segment of Baluch falling under the spell of armed insurgency and also due to the remoteness of the region, the situation in Baluchistan, due to BLA/BRA militancy is not as critical as it is due to the TTP insurgency but still, it is a serious menace. Military has not been used in Baluchistan as yet and only Para military forces, Police and local militias have been performing the security duties. Apart from the two, above mentioned, active armed insurgencies, there are secular political parties which have armed wings and also have separatist agendas and have been involved in urban violence, especially in Karachi. Both MQM and ANP maintain armed militias in the city and though they hold positions in the government also, are waging a ruthless and brutal war of assassinations and counter assassinations on the streets of Karachi. Both MQM and ANP are fondly close to India and reject the creation of Pakistan as a State and have dismissed the Islamic ideology of Pakistan. ANP especially had been instrumental since 1947 to dismember Pakistan on ethnic Pashtun lines. Lately, MQM and its leader Altaf Hussein has also been vocal against the creation of Pakistan and has even suggested “reunification”, basically suggesting that India should take control of Pakistan! In future, both these parties could become a major threat and indulge in active insurgencies, especially in Karachi and urban Sindh. For now, while they remain in power politically and are allies of the PPP government, they are also playing the assassination game in a turf war and are keeping their armed wings as insurance against any government or military operation against them in the future. Both these axis of insurgencies – religious and secular – have their own dynamics and demand separate analysis and response on psychological, political and military plains. The total and complete failure of the Pakistani government, media and civil law enforcement managers, can be judged from the fact that despite facing an existential threat from armed insurgencies, Pakistan still does not have an anti-terrorism policy. The Parliament has not passed a single resolution on terrorism in the last 10 years and the composite collapse of the judicial system is evident from the fact that not a single terrorist has been sentenced to death in the last 10 years either. The system has simply collapsed under the pressure, threats and the challenges, and the entire burden has fallen on the Pakistan army and armed forces to rid the country of these cancers. This is precisely the reason why this menace of terrorism and insurgency is still haunting Pakistan. Despite applying correct and precise military pressure, there is complete lack of political, moral, legal and religious support for

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What follows is such an attempt, showcasing the approach for Pakistan’s policy makers, to redefine Pakistan’s National Security Strategy by analyzing the historical, ideological and military dimensions of the threats faced by Pakistan.

Background
Fighting insurgencies in urban environment remains one of the most tiresome and challenging tasks for any country and the task has gotten more intensively complex in contemporary world, particularly after 9/11. The phenomenon of fighting an insurgent movement demands a multi dimensional solution focusing on the multiple aspects of whole restive milieu, with a pre-determined equilibrium of all the tactics of counter insurgency techniques that would be utilized while eradicating the problem, for example, understanding the conflict, identifying the root causes of the problem, choosing the most appropriate state tool to eradicate the root cause and most importantly calculating the need, time, magnitude and impact of military force to be applied. Apart from these elements, a successful counter insurgency strategy demands a dedicated, committed and sincere leadership, capable of taking various policy level initiatives, showing courage during the crisis and exploiting opportunities created during active counter insurgency operations, through governance and administrative measures to win hearts and minds of insurgents and their unarmed sympathizers in the area of conflict. On the other hand, a sustained armed insurgency always relies on the support of local masses and foreign aid in terms of money and weapon supply, planning, logistic support and training. Traditionally, insurgent movements originate to fight for protection of economic and political rights within a state but the situation in Pakistan is a lot more obscure than this, as insurgencies in Pakistan are multifaceted, have been launched under various pretexts having both natural and artificial causes and supported by hostile forces as well. Pakistan, when incarnated as a counter insurgency case study, is a unique country in modern times where multiple insurgencies and internal conflicts are of heterogeneous nature with diversity in root causes, timeline, political dynamics and support bases but are aggressively agglomerating into a single complex war against the state, due to various internal and external factors. Historically, Pakistan had some problems of low intensity insurgency in Baluchistan province since early 1970’s and sectarian divide among various religious organizations was also present since 1980’s. However, the Pakistani state never faced any existential threat due to these fault lines. Flawed and faulty anti terrorism measures, devised by Islamabad in strategically changed post 9/11 scenario, proved a catalyst for religious and

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the armed law enforcement. Pakistan desperately and urgently needs a national anti-terrorism policy under a larger, national security strategy.

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secular insurgencies as well as sectarian violence in Pakistan, as it did not only intensify Baluch insurgency but also provided India and CIA with an opportunity to launch another insurgency in North West of Pakistan, with extreme brutality and to penetrate into the ranks of sectarian and militant organizations in Pakistan. Due to Islamabad’s persistence with same failed policies despite the change of government in late 2007, Pakistan is facing an unparallel challenge of internal security. Recently ethnic and linguistic target killings, in Baluchistan and Karachi, involving MQM and ANP have added a new dimension to these prolonged insurgencies. To devise a workable and pragmatic policy to address this complex, internal security challenge, Pakistan would have to revise its foreign and interior policies, which need a complete overhaul now. But that would be only possible after a careful examination of every aspect of this highly composite problem, by fragmenting its various amalgamated aspects so that this problem can be comprehended in context of national security. To begin with, it would be prudent to analyze and categorize the insurgencies and insurgent groups, militant organizations and radical entities, working against the state of Pakistan, by digging into history to locate the time and origins of these insurgent movements as well as their ideological bearings.

History and Root Cause of Insurgencies
In order to get a clue about why multiple insurgencies are prevailing in Pakistan, despite successive military operations, it is essential to investigate the origin of radicalization of different sectarian factions in Pakistani society, militant groups, foreign links of these organizations and the impact of 9/11 on various militant organizations and their operations on political and sectarian dimensions. Understanding the religious-political mindset in Muslim world before the start of Afghan war and the impact of latter on former, is vital and the key to unlock the historic padlocks on the ideological and intellectual struggle for political Islam in the Muslim world and how some of its factions turned into a violent and aggressive demon, even for Muslim societies by the end of Afghan war. The whole conflict and the present environment with respect to political-religious insurgencies revolve around this dilemmatic ideal of Islam in Muslim world. The extreme anger and sense of hopelessness, which has dominated the militant Muslim minds is due to genuine injustices, atrocities and cruelties of the dominant West, Tyrannical and Fascist style regimes in the Muslim world and due to the lack of sense of direction in the Muslim masses around the world. If we see the political profile in the Middle East, there are some Arab regimes, which are equally tyrannical as Israel and India. Many countries have had the same leaders since decades. There are no rights of speech against the government, no fair elections, no independent press, no opposition, compromised judiciary and brutal Police forces. Just the party or clan or the leader rules with an iron hand. These regimes have worst possible cases of human rights and abuse to their name and continue even today. The first Major Muslim response in the Middle East was in early fifties, when a whole new wave of “enlightened” modern Muslim religio-political leaders emerged in Egypt, Pakistan and other Middle Eastern countries. Akhwan-ul-Muslimeen originated in Egypt under the leadership of Hasan Banna and Syed Qutub. Jamaat-e-Islami appealed to the modern Muslim mind in universities and colleges of Pakistan, under the guidance of Maudoodi. The Arab world was facing the great socialist revolution under the guidance of Jamaal Abdul Nasir and Arab

nationalism was a very strong factor in the ME. But Akhwan rapidly spread its ideology of political Islam, which became a rallying point for young Muslims in the Arab world. The response of the Arab regimes was ruthless and outright cruel. Instead of challenging and confronting the young Islamists intellectually and ideologically, a policy of decimation was adopted by the Arab governments. Akhwan was banned and its leaders jailed, tortured and killed. Syed Qutub was hanged in Egypt in the 60’s and he became a martyr of the cause. The destruction and persecution of Akhwan-ul-Muslimeen as a vibrating political force in the Middle East in the 60’s and 70’s, left the young Muslims with no alternate political forum or platform where their thoughts on State, government and policies could be defined in the modern world. The best of their leaders were hanged and the remaining were only blind followers raging with anger, revenge and sense of helplessness. They are still around and often vent their anger in various violent and radical, though isolated, acts like assassination of Sadaat, tourist massacre of Luxar, taking over of Kaab’a in 1979, first car bombing of Hasan Banna world trade center in early nineties etc. But still, reactionary terrorism, as a weapon of political statement, was not adopted as a policy by any group anywhere in the Muslim world till the early 90’s. Overall, during that era, the general pattern in Muslim political movements in the Arab world reflected a defeatist and angry, reactionary mindset. They had good intentions and were ritually practicing Muslims but devoid of any finer vision, wisdom or logic. Their ideology of Political Islam was without any mature and long term planning for future reconciliation, peace or offering alternate sustainable solutions. The anger of some of the cadre had turned into outright violence and cruelty at their helplessness to change anything around them. The weak role models could not keep the effects of extremism and sectarianism away from pristine principles, and slowly almost all Muslim groups and parties degenerated into decadence and petty politics and sometimes, even violence. This was the state in the Arab world when the Afghan Jihad started in 1979; then the whole scenario changed rapidly. In Pakistan, after the death of Maulana Maudoodi, JI never produced any leader of stature or vision and began to decay and degenerate into secular politics. The Pakistani Islamists were more balanced and open than their Arab counterparts, as in Pakistan there was never any government even comparable to the tyrannical regimes that exist in the ME. Open dialogue and freedom of expression in Pakistan did not produce that radical behavior which we see in Arab countries; then came the year, 1979.
Syed Qutb

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Three phenomenal and historic events took place around 1979-80. 1. Iranian Revolution took place – Giving rise to Shia militant Islam 2. Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan – giving rise to Sunni Militancy in the Muslim world. 3. Iran-Iraq war broke out – Giving rise to Shia-Sunni, Arab-Persian conflict in the Muslim world. These regional events during 1979-80 eras played a decisive and critical role in redefining the national, regional and global politics and strategic affairs. Though all these incidents took place outside the Pakistani borders but the impact was most vivid within the Pakistani society. All dimensions of militancy – Sectarian, PoliticoReligious and Secular, emerged and flourished during this era in Pakistan as a spillover effect of these three game changing events.

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Iranian Revolution of (1979) and Iran – Iraq War (1980 to 1989)
The Iranian revolution played a critical role in Shiite uprising in Pakistan as well. As Iran is predominately a Shiite society so it adopted Shiite version of Islam as its official religion after the revolution of April 1979. Pakistani society comprises of two main sectarian factions: Shiite and Sunnis. 84% of Muslim population follows Sunni version of Islamic laws in religious matters while some 12% belongs to Shiite school of thought. This sectarian divide predates more than 1000 years back in history and Pakistan had inherited it at the time of its creation in 1947. Though this sectarian divide was there in the society but it never was an internal security problem until 1979, a year which not only changed the social outlook of Pakistani society but also altered the security profile of the region in later years.

The Shiite influence began to expand in Pakistan and Afghanistan after the Iranian revolution through supporting and mobilizing Shiite community in Pakistan for a mirror revolution in the country. In Pakistan, with a Sunni dominated state, this was perceived as an Iranian attempt to expand its political and sectarian footprint in the region. Consequently, opposing factions and sects also started to get support against Shiite ideology

Sectarian Sunni militant organizations like SSP (Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan i.e Army of Companions of Prophet S.A.W) emerged during this era of Afghan Jihad in early 80’s. On the other hand, Iran was supporting Shiite organizations like TNFJ (Tehreek-i-Nifaz’ e Fiqa-e-Jafaria i.e. movement for the implementation of Shia Laws) in Pakistan and also the Shiite groups of the Afghan resistance. Shiites also had their version of militant sectarian outfit on the pattern of SSP, known as Sipah-i-Mohammad Pakistan (SMP). Both these sectarian militant outfits – SSP and SMP – later fought bloody wars within the Pakistani society in 80’s and 90’s and continue to do so, even to this day despite being banned by the government. In this regard, Pakistan paid a very heavy price of having brotherly relations with both Arab and Iranian camps. Pakistan became a bloody battleground for a proxy war between two opposing sects.

Russian invasion of Afghanistan and Afghan Jihad (1979 to 1992)
The Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was the single, most influential event which changed the global strategic paradigm altogether as well as Pakistan’s national security landscape, in terms of sectarian and religious violence. Threatened by aggressive Soviet designs, Pakistan decided to help the Afghan resistance against the invading red army. Islamabad’s decision to fight against Soviets in Afghanistan was taken as announcement of Jihad by Muslim youths across the globe and particularly inside Pakistan. Afghan resistance or the six party Mujahideen alliance based in Pakistan was purely a Sunni military alliance of Afghans against the Soviets. The eight Shia Afghan parties were based in Tehran. Even the Afghan resistance was divided on sectarian lines between Pakistan and Iran. But for Sunni Muslims, Afghan Jihad became the first practical focal point for every Muslim movement in the world to vent their anger against a “super power”. Arabs found it an easy path to Paradise and flocked in thousands to fight along with Afghans. Their romantic dream of an Islamic “Khilafat” was the prime mover in creating a strong moral legitimacy for Afghan Jihad in the Arab movements. They created personalities and figures with almost cult followings. Ustad Sayyaf was to be the next “Khilafa” and Dr. Abdullah Azzam was the kingpin of “Islamic victory over all infidels” starting from Afghanistan. Every Sunni Muslim movement in the world from North Africa, America, Eastern Europe, Far East and Central Asia sent their cadre for training. The Philippine terrorist group “Abu Sayyaf ” is named after Ustad Sayyaf for its links with the Afghan group, sponsored by Arabs in the Afghan Jihad. For the first time the Arab militants emerged as major players in a war against “infidels”. The amount of money, resources and assets,

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from Iraq and other gulf states. The Iranian revolution and the Arab-Persian / Sunni-Shia war spilled into Pakistan.

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which flowed into the Afghan war from Arab connections, is almost comparable to the total aid given by UN and US during the Afghan war! There were almost 20,000 Arab and non-Afghan casualties during the Afghan war from all over the world. The Afghan war had created a new breed of fighters, who saw Afghanistan as a dream come true, a base to establish the puritan Islamic State, to declare Jihad on the entire world. These Arab fighters were extremely brave, robust, burning with a desire to go to paradise via shortest possible way but extremely short of vision and full of anger, hate and imbalanced obsession, which very seriously affected their capacity to think rationally and to plan for a sustainable policy in the world. Some of them were “Takfiris”, meaning quick to declare any person as Kafir or infidel, which does not fit into their version or image of Islamic interpretation. This “takfiri” attitude made them unwelcome even among Afghans, let alone in the modern Muslims worldwide. They were an isolated lot from the very beginning.

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Ustad Sayyaf

Subsequently, the romanticism of creating an Islamic State was blown away when a civil war started between the Afghan Mujahideen after the collapse of Kabul regime. Ustad Sayyaf was blown into obscurity and all the “heroes” of Afghan Jihad fought amongst themselves over the spoils. It was a dream going sour; the culmination being the murder of Dr. Abdullah Azzam in a car bomb in Peshawar in 1988, basically destroying the Arab network in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Arabs started to leave by the hundreds, some voluntarily, some deported by Pakistan. Those who had no place to go, held their ground in the Pakistani tribal areas and made independent mini States. Pakistan even had to fight a small battle in the tribal belt, back in the early 90’s, to flush out few Arab extremists who had declared war on Pakistan too. The Afghan war was not only instrumental in radicalization of sectarian outfits, but it also resurrected secular, linguistic and ethnic Marxist insurgency of Baluchistan, which first started in the early 1970’s; back then it took the Pakistan army 4 years to bring stability and normalcy to the province. During the Afghan conflict in the 80’s, Russian intelligence agency KGB teamed up with Indian RAW (Research & Analysis Wing) to resurrect the Baluch insurgency once again in Pakistan in order to divert its attention from Afghan theatre. All major cities of Pakistan witnessed horrendous bombings in which thousands of Pakistanis were killed. In the presence of all these religio-political, sectarian and secular militant groups, a new category of militant organizations emerged after the Afghan war, which was focused purely on Kashmir and its liberation from India. The resistance against Indian occupation started immediately after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988 and many fighters from the Afghan battlefronts decided to enter Kashmir through the disputed and porous line of control between Pakistan and India on the Kashmir sector. These groups were not global jihadists nor had any terrorist or violent agenda against any other country except to join the legitimate freedom struggle of Kashmir against Indian occupation.

Radicalization of Arab and Foreign Militants in Post Afghan War Era – 1990 to 1996
Most of the Arab fighters who returned back to their native countries were arrested by their respective gov-

Sudan invited all Afghan veteran Arabs who wanted to leave Afghanistan. The Afghan chapter was effectively closed for these Arabs. Among all those who landed in Sudan was Osama Bin Laden, known only as an ordinary Arab fighter but with lots of money and good family connections. He had already made his mark during the Afghan war by building tunnels and deep caves bringing in the experience of his family construction business in Saudi Arabia. Apart from that, there was nothing extraordinary about him. His lavish spending of money on poor Arab comrades did bring fame to him among the Arabs, who were now looking for an alternate leadership after the death of mainstream leaders during Afghan Jihad. Arabs need religious personality cults and are good at creating them even if they do not have a genuine one. The Arabs returned to Afghanistan almost with the emergence of Taliban in 1996 after the former were kicked out of Sudan due to US pressure. Dr. Turabi was also not getting along well with General Basheer and finally Dr. Turabi was arrested as well. To put pressure on Sudan to expel these militants to Afghanistan, US made missile strikes in the country. Hence, Arab fighters lost all sympathy in Sudan. This is very interesting to note that it was US desire that these Arab fighters be expelled from Sudan towards Afghanistan. Special flights were arranged which refueled in Dubai right under the nose of the CIA and then they landed in Jalalabad. No attempts were made by the US or the Arab regimes to block or seize these “wanted terrorists” enroute. The entire movement of so called Al-Qaeda was orchestrated, planned and executed by CIA. Afghanistan was once again to become their base, but this time with a vengeance. Now these Arab fighters were a compromised lot penetrated by Israeli, CIA and Arab intelligence assets for creating the future bogey of “Muslim Terrorism”. Seeds for 9/11 and post 9/11 wars in the 21st century within the Muslim world were sown. It is again interesting to note that during the Taliban era, US never demanded that Osama and his gangs be expelled from Afghanistan nor Taliban were accused of supporting any global terrorism. In fact, US were engaging Taliban in high level negotiations to construct TAP gas line project (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan). The American company UNICOL was negotiating on behalf of the US government. Taliban delegations used to visit US on a regular basis. Taliban were then the blue eyed boys of the US government and the Oil cartels. Around 1998, the negotiations between the two broke down and Taliban refused to give the contract to the American company opting for an Argentinean company Bridas instead. That was the moment when a policy decision was taken in the white house to replace the Taliban regime. From now on, US would wage global media and information wars against Taliban projecting them as villains. It is again very interesting to note that the man who replaced Mullah Omar as the President of Afghanistan

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ernments and hanged in dozens. There was no way out for these desperate groups. A huge contingent landed in Sudan, where a much better government existed under the command of a General who took religious guidance from Dr. Hasan Turabi, friend of Dr. Abdullah Azzam, and himself an ex-Akhwan leader.

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was the same man who was negotiating with Taliban on behalf of the Americans as UNICOL consultant – Hamid Karzai! Taliban had contained the activities of Osama and his gang. He was there as a guest but not allowed to conduct his operations anywhere in the world. Taliban also had closest relations with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and some Gulf States and were not willing to allow Osama to spoil their foreign relations. Not a single act of terrorism has been attributed to Taliban or Osama’s gangs during this era. Taliban did not export their version anywhere in the world. There was total peace in Pakistan except for occasional local sectarian violence or some political unrest in Karachi.

The Taliban Era – 1996 to 2001
As far as external and internal security of Pakistan is concerned, Taliban era in Afghanistan was the most peaceful time for Pakistan. Since the creation of Pakistan in 1947, Afghanistan had been the most hostile country for Pakistan after India. Throughout the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s and the early 90’s, The pro-Soviet regimes in Kabul also aligned themselves with India, hence allowing the KGB, Khad and RAW to use the Afghan soil to foment insurgencies, separatism and violence inside Pakistan. In Pakistan, Awami National Party in frontier province wanted to create Pashtunistan, a Pashtun land carved out of Pakistan. In Baluchistan few Baloch Sardars from Marri, Bugti, Mengal tribes aligned themselves with Soviets and Indians to “liberate” Baluchistan. In the early 70’s, government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had to fight an anti insurgency war in Baluchistan and Bhutto also filed treason cases against ANP for trying to dismember Pakistan. It is ironic that the same separatists now rule Baluchistan and Frontier province and are hell bent on their same sinister agenda while PPP rules in Islamabad. The role of the Soviets has now been replaced with the Americans. Rest of the separatists’ agenda against Pakistan remains same. During the Afghan Jihad of the 80’s and after the defeat of the Soviets, the dream of “Pashtunistan” and “Free Baluchistan” was shattered. Kabul was captured by the Mujahideen in 1992, and after four years of civil war between various Mujahideen groups, the Taliban captured Kabul in 1996. Despite their harshness in managing their affairs within Afghanistan, Taliban’s foreign policy towards Pakistan was most suitable and peaceful for Pakistan’s national security for the following reasons: ♦ Taliban being strongly anti-Indians, eliminated the Indian influence from Afghanistan after decades of Indian presence in the country. Indians could not use Afghanistan to backstab Pakistan now. ♦ Taliban eliminated all bases and training camps of Baluch separatists, basically killing the Baluch insurgency in Pakistan. ♦ Taliban kept Osama Bin Laden and his group in check, not allowing them to create problems for Pakistan. There was no TTP and no insurgency against Pakistan in the tribal regions. ♦ In the absence of US, Soviet and Indian elements in Afghanistan, the idea of Pashtunistan was also killed, isolating the Pakistani Pashtun separatists within Pakistan, without any support base in Afghanistan for

♦ Taliban respected the territorial integrity of Pakistan and never raised the issue of Durand line or any border disputes. ♦ Not a single suicide bombing, bomb attack or act of violence was reported in Pakistan from any insurgent group – either religious or secular during the Taliban era. Afghanistan had become the strategic depth for Pakistan. ♦ Taliban eliminated drugs from Afghanistan, choking the drug supply in Pakistan and also the money supply of Baluch and other separatist elements in Pakistan. ♦ Pakistan had no deployment of any troops on the Afghan side and the entire focus of Pakistan was against India and on Kashmir. ♦ Afghanistan acted as the strategic depth for Pakistan with almost all of Afghanistan dependent upon Pakistan for trade, food supplies, clothes, fuel, printing, industrial and technological support. Pakistani currency was acceptable at all Afghan shops and Afghans would scramble to get Pakistani ID cards and passports. Geo-economically and geo-culturally, Afghanistan had become an informal province of Pakistan.

Post Taliban Era – 2001 Till Date
Then in 2001, Taliban, too were overthrown by US, and Ahmad Shah Masood was assassinated by pro-Taliban Arabs. Afghanistan once again came under foreign occupation and they installed remnants of Masood’s men and few imported Afghans like Karzai, to replace the clerical regime. Another war of resistance has begun in the country. Taliban as well as Haqqani and Hekmatyar have once again become resistance fighters, fighting against another foreign army and against their former allies during Soviet occupation. Now, Taliban, Haqqani and Hekmatyar have emerged as allies for common cause of survival. There is total chaos in Afghanistan. Afghanistan government is the most hostile regime against Pakistan after India and Israel. Despite some increase in trade, Afghanistan has become staging post to spread death and destruction in Pakistan. Since 9/11, Pakistan has emerged as the net loser in the whole episode. The pro-Masood elements controlling power in Kabul and Hamid Karzai, remain staunchly anti-Pakistan and have close relations with India, Iran, US and Russia. For them, it is also a blood feud now, as they hold Pakistan responsible for the death of Masood, when in reality Islamabad knew nothing about the Taliban/Osama plot to assassinate Masood. Afghan refugees still remain in Pakistan and have no plans to go back. Pakistan’s western borders remain insecure. Nearly a hundred thousand Pakistani troops are stationed along Afghan border fighting an array of enemies from TTP terrorists to Arab militants to local tribal sympathizers to Uzbek infiltrators sent from Kabul and India. The scenario is not just complex, it is dirty. The Indians returned to Afghanistan with a vengeance. Baluchistan insurgency has been fully activated with

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the first time since 1947. ANP was an isolated defeated group in Pakistan.

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bloody consequences for Pakistan. Pakistan government allowed CIA to operate independently in the tribal areas under the pretext of finding Osama and they exploited the opportunity to create Al-Qaeda, Uzbeks and TTP. The TTP insurgency was created and is being kept alive through massive support of weapons, money and infiltrators in the garb of “Muslim militants” and “Arab Mujahideen” or “AlQaeda”. Israeli Mossad and CIA are handling the Arab connection, while RAW and RAMA manage the TTP, Uzbeks and local Pashtun and Pakistani terrorist elements.

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Ahmad Shah Masood

The fascist religious ideology of Takfir against Pakistani State has been aggressively promoted through planted Arab spies like Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Abu Yazid while Osama remains an elusive support to the Takfiri ideology. Local terrorists like TTP are further supported by Uzbek Militants from ruthless Communist warlord Rasheed Dostum’s gangs under the guise of Islamic movement of Uzbekistan. Pakistani sectarian terrorists groups like SSP and LeJ also joined the ranks of TTP for protection and survival, and have expanded their role from anti-Shia militancy to anti-State and anti-Pakistani warfare. The entire campaign of terrorism against Pakistan is based in Afghanistan under the patronage of a hornet’s nest of CIA, Mossad, RAW and RAMA. Mercifully for Pakistan, the Afghan groups – Mullah Umar, Haqqani and Hekmatyar – remain neutral towards Pakistan and have still not declared any hostile intent towards Pakistan, despite blunders made by Islamabad. US is desperate to push Pakistan onto a collision course with Afghan Taliban and Afghan resistance but Pakistan has been resisting the pressure so far. The CIA has been waging an independent war in the tribal regions eliminating genuine Afghan resistance through drone strikes but avoiding attacks on TTP, Baluch separatists

Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Abu Yazid

The US is present in Afghanistan. CIA, Mossad, RAW and RAMA continue to play havoc with Pakistan’s security, backing as well as supporting multiple insurgencies and terrorist groups in Pakistan. Pakistan government and parliament remains paralyzed, while army continues to fight a heroic battle in the absence of any political, diplomatic or information warfare support for the cause. American presence in Afghanistan is the root cause of all terrorism inside Pakistan. So far, this critical issue has not been addressed either by the government or the military while trying to fight the insurgencies. In the reactive mode of response, more and more resources, men and weapons continue to flow into Pakistan from Afghanistan and the base areas, safe havens and supply lines of the insurgents both in NWFP and Baluchistan remain secure, out of the reach of Pakistani forces.

Analyzing the Militant Groups in Pakistan
After gaining an in-depth insight and understanding the historic prospect of political, sectarian and secular mindset and dogmatic struggle by various militant factions across the Islamic world, it is time to get an insight into the militant groups currently active in and around Pakistan, and how they converge or diverge in pursuit of their political and sectarian ideals in the realm of religious insurgency. Apart from that, it is also time to study the motives, ambitions and future discourse of secular insurgency that has been waged against Pakistan, in Baluchistan, from Afghanistan by Indian RAW. Sipah –i- Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) Formed in 1985 by Haq Nawaz Jhangvi, Zia-ur- Rehman Farooqi, Esrar-ul-Haq Qasimi and Azim Tariq in Jhang as a political party. Main objective of this organization was to deter the political rise of Shiite parties. SSP remained part of provincial government in Punjab during 1993. Later on, SSP turned into a complete sectarian terrorist entity with a manifesto to turn Pakistan into a Deobandi state. SSP was banned for its sectarian violence in 2002. It started to operate again under the name of Millat-e-Islamia Pakistan, which was again banned in 2003 by the government. SSP believe that Shiites are not Muslims at all and justifies brutal violence against the community. Apart from sectarian activates, SSP is blamed to be involved in Muslim-Christian riots in Gojra in 2009. Lashkar-i- Jhangvi (LJ) Lashkar-i-Jhangvi was formed as a splinter group by the extremely violent criminal elements of SSP like Riaz Basra and Akram Lahori in 1996. These elements were annoyed at SSP leadership for not taking “adequate” measures against Shiite organizations. Anti Shiite sentiments in the ranks of LJ were more radical than SSP. According to LJ scripture, all Shiites are infidels and must be eliminated by force. Riaz Basra, a wanted criminal by Pakistani authorities, fled to Afghanistan where he established links with different terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda and TTP. LJ was declared a terrorist outfit by Pakistani authorities in 2001. LJ has now effectively turned into a terrorist group for hire, ready to work for anyone who pays the highest price. Indian RAW is now known to be using LJ for terrorist strikes against strategic targets in Pakistan. Most of the high profile terrorist incidents are attributed to LJ, like the assassination of Iranian diplomat,

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and Uzbeks, despite strong objections, demands and reservations by Pakistan.

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Sadiq Ganji (1990), killing of US journalist Daniel Pearl (2002), killing of French engineers in Karachi (2002), Attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore (2007), assassination of former prime minister Benazie Bhutto (2007), attack on Marriott hotel in Islamabad (2008) etc. Sipah-e-Mohammad Pakistan (SMP) SMP was formed in 1990, by Moulana Muneeb Abbas Yazdani, as a reaction to SSP, to guard the Shiite community in Pakistan. The organization remained involved in sectarian violence during the 1990’s. SSP accused SMP of killing its leaders. SMP got so much power in the coming years that it established a state within a state in Thokar Niaz Baig area in Lahore during the 90’s. SMP was accused of get funding from Iran to expand Shiite ideology in Pakistan. Just like LJ, many criminal elements became part of SMP like Ghulam Raza Naqvi, once chieftain of the organization, was involved in 30 different cases of murder and robbery. This organization was also banned by Pakistani government on 14th August 2001. Tehreek-i-Nifaz-e- Shariyat Mohammadi (TNSM) The group was founded by Sufi Muhammad, in 1992 after he left Jamaat-e-Islami, of which he was an active leader. Objective of TNSM was to replicate Afghan Taliban’s version of Islamic laws in Malakand division in frontier province, in Northern Pakistan. Sufi Muhammad was jailed in November 2001 for sending thousands of volunteers to Afghanistan to fight the US led invasion. After his arrest, his son in law, Mullah Fazalullah, took over the command of TNSM and started one of the bloodiest campaigns to enforce his version of terrorist laws in Malakand division. This militant faction of TNSM called itself Sawati Taliban or TTP Swat. TNSM used Islam to further its political agenda to grab power and authority. During its terror drive in Malakand it was supported by Indian backed Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with arms, training, Radio stations

Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) The most brutal and ruthless terrorist organization in the world today and the most prized asset of RAW. Emerged in 2005, TTP acted as an umbrella organization for many militant groups fighting against the Pakistani state, under the ideology of Takfir. TTP consists of Pakistani, Arab, Uzbek and Afghan nationals. TTP declared the whole of Pakistani nation as infidels on allying with US in war on terror. TTP gets support from US and NATO occupied Afghanistan, mainly from Indian and Afghan secret services. TTP adopted the slogan of Jihad against US occupation of Afghanistan to get more recruits from Pakistani tribal areas in order to intensify and expand its war against Pakistan. TTP never fired a single bullet on US forces in Afghanistan and its main target is Pakistan, both as state and nation, with a particular focus on Pakistan army and its intelligence organizations. TTP established its foothold in South Waziristan agency in FATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Areas) area. Soon it expanded its influence in other agencies of FATA as well. There were several incidents where Pakistani security personnel were beheaded by the coldblooded TTP operatives. Apart from that, the phenomenon of suicide bombings in Pakistan was introduced by TTP. Thousands of Pakistanis have been killed in these suicide attacks by TTP during the last 5 years. The Pakistan government has declared TTP as a terrorist organization. Pakistan army launched massive military operations against TTP in South Waziristan, where TTP had established its illegal state within the FATA area of Pakistan. TTP leadership is now on the run, as the Pakistan army is busy in search and destroy operations in FATA. Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) The Balochistan Liberation army (BLA) is a Baloch ethno-linguistic, militant, secessionist organization. The stated goal of the organization is to establish an independent Balochistan by seceding Pakistani and Iranian parts of Baluch ethnicity. It was established during the 1970’s, by the support of Russian KGB, to divert Pakistani military establishment’s focus from Afghanistan. The name Baloch Liberation Army became public after 9/11 when the organization took credit for a series of bomb attacks in markets, railway lines and other infrastructure in Baluchistan. In 2006, the BLA was declared to be a proscribed group by Pakistani government. Brahamdadh Bugti commands BLA from Afghanistan and is supported and funded by Indian consulates in

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and intelligence against Pakistani law enforcement agencies. TTP Swat established its writ on Swat and adjacent districts of Malakand division by 2009, when Pakistan army launched a full scale operation and crushed the TTP Swat faction.

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Afghanistan. Indians are also sponsoring multiple conferences on Baluchistan and on “atrocities” committed against Baluchis by “Punjabi army”. US still refuse to declare BLA and other Baluch separatist groups as terrorist outfits.

Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF) Currently headed by Sher Mohammad Marri, BLF is the oldest insurgent movement in Baluchistan, whose origin predates to 1964. It got its support from pro-Soviet Iraq and other states in the gulf in its initial years. In the beginning, BLF was more active in Iranian Baluchistan. In 1973, Pakistani authorities discovered arms in the Iraqi embassy in Islamabad, which were intended for the BLF's use in Baluchistan. This led to a fullscale military operation in Baluchistan against BLF. Lashkar-e- Tayyaba (LeT) Lashkar-e-Tayyaba used to operate in Kashmir. It was founded by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and Zafar Iqbal in Afghanistan. The primary area of operations of their activities is the Kashmir valley, fighting against India for liberation of Kashmir. It does not have global agenda and is a staunch opponent of Al-Qaeda and TTP, making it an organization on the hit list of Indian backed terrorists. In January 2009 the LeT publicly declared that it would pursue a peaceful resolution in the Kashmir issue and that it did not have global jihadist aims. Let does not exist in Afghanistan and has not committed any act of terrorism in Pakistan ever. US insists upon calling Let as an Al-Qaeda associate group and a threat larger than Al-Qaeda but that is factually absurd. Ideologically, Al-Qaeda and LeT are diametrically opposite. Harkat-ul- Jihad al-Islami (HuJI) Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami emerged as first Pakistani militant organization in 1984 during the Afghan Jihad; it was formed by Fazalur Rehman Khalil and Qari Saifullah Akhtar. Khalil later broke away to form his own

HuJI first limited its operations in Afghanistan against the Soviets but after the Soviet retreat in 1988, the organization shifted its area of operation to the Indian Held Jammu and Kashmir. Currently, HuJI is a terrorist organization involved in anti-Pakistan activities inspired by Al-Qaeda ideologically; it has been banned by the Pakistani government, as the group is hostile to Pakistan now. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) Hizbul Mujahideen (party of holy warriors) founded by Ahsan Dar in 1989, is a Kashmiri militant group, active in Indian occupied Jammu & Kashmir only since 1989. Hizbul Mujahideen is currently the largest militant group operating in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK). HuM is not hostile to Pakistan nor aligned to Al-Qaeda nor have any act of terrorism attributed to it anywhere in the world. It is involved in legitimate freedom struggle in Indian controlled Kashmir only. Jaish-i- Muhammed (JeM) Jaish-e-Mohammed was once a major mujahedeen organization in Kashmir. Jaish-e-Mohammed was formed in the mid 1990’s, after supporters of Maulana Masood Azhar split from another Kashmir based militant organization called Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. The group's primary motive is to liberate Kashmir from India and it was active in Indian held Kashmir since 2002. It does not have global agenda and does not have affiliations with Al-Qaeda or TTP. In fact, this group and the TTP are daggers drawn. JeM has been banned in Pakistan since 2002. Activities of JeM have reduced considerably in recent years after being banned by the government of Pakistan. Some of its cadre have joined the ranks of Afghan Taliban to fight against the US and NATO forces. The group is not hostile to Pakistan despite being banned by the Pakistan government. Al-Badr Created in 1998, Al-Badr is a freedom fighter group operating in the Jammu Kashmir region only. The group operated independently from their previous umbrella group, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HuM). Prior to the group’s separation from HuM, they participated in fighting in Afghanistan in 1990 as part of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-l-Islami (HIG) alongside other anti-Soviet Afghan mujihadeen. They have been linked to Jamaat-e-Islami. The groups stated purpose is to liberate the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir in order to be merged with Pakistan. Al-Badr is currently on the U.S. State Department’s list of Designated Foreign Funding Freedom Organizations. AlBadr is not hostile to Pakistan nor aligned with Al-Qaeda or the TTP. Al-Qaeda A hardcore terrorist group penetrated by CIA, Mossad nexus. Al-Qaeda was formed after the withdrawal of Soviets from Afghanistan in 1989, by the Arab guerilla fighters, under the leadership of Osama Bin Laden. Though Al-Qaeda’s stated aim was to liberate all Muslim lands from foreign occupation, particularly from US occupation, and then establish an Islamic state comprising of all Muslim countries, but due to heavy penetration of Mossad, CIA operatives and its extremist Takfiri ideology, it has caused great turmoil and destruction in Muslim world. This ideology is so twisted and fascist that it provided an easy whipping horse to the western

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group Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA). This group would later re-form as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), when HuA was banned by the United States in 1997.

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media around the world, to distort the image of Islam as an intolerant, militant and sadistic religion. Al-Qaeda is poised to use extensive force, most of the time against Muslim countries and ordinary citizens who differ with its version of Islam. Basically, it’s now a terrorist organization, waging a ruthless war against Pakistan, more through its ideology, than its fighters, and TTP is influenced by the same ideology. Effectively, Al-Qaeda is now a dead organization in Pakistani tribal regions and does not have any role in war against US and NATO forces. Its active members are now just a few dozen hunted men who do not have any logistical or technical base to cause any terrorist operation in the world. They are ideologically more dangerous but not physically. The generic brand name Al-Qaeda is used by US and western intelligence agencies to brand all hostile groups. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) Formed in 1991 by two Uzbek nationals, Tahir Yuldashev, and former Soviet paratrooper, Juma Namangani - both ethnic Uzbeks from the Fergana Valley. Its objective was to overthrow President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, and to create an Islamic state. But IMU was heavily penetrated initially by Russian intelligence which diverted its attention towards Afghanistan and then towards Pakistan.

In 2000, it had established links with Afhgan Taliban in Northern Afghanistan areas under Taliban control. It fought against US and the coalition forces in 2001 and faced almost total destruction, some of the survivors including, its founder and chieftain Tahir Yuldashev, fled to Waziristan agency in Pakistan where he established training camps and became an ideological inspiration for the local edition of Taliban in Pakistan i.e. TTP. IMU suffered a severe blow when Tahir Yuldashev was killed in a military operation of Pakistan army in Swat region, in 2009. The Uzbek group of Tahir is now heavily penetrated by the communist, Rasheed Dostum’s gangs and now Uzbik insurgents are operating mainly under the command of the criminal warlord, General Abdul Rasheed Dostam, Chief of Staff of Afghan army, from Afghanistan to continue their fight against Pakistan, though they maintain their generic name of IMU for cover.

Emerged in 1994 under the leadership of Mullah Omar, Taliban were the first force in Afghanistan to bring political stability in a war stricken country. Ideologically, Taliban are not global Jihadists and do not share AlQaeda or TTP’s visions of Takfeer against Pakistan or the Muslim world. True freedom fighters, now they are moral equivalents of Afghan Mujahideen of the 80’s, only fighting to liberate their homeland from western occupation. Jalaluddin Haqqani Group The Haqqani group is an independent resistant group in Afghanistan and is closely allied with the Afghan Taliban. Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani along with his son Sirajuddin Haqqani lead the group. The group is strong in eastern Afghanistan and presents strong threats to NATO and United States forces in Afghanistan. Jalaluddin Haqqani is regarded as one of the most senior Afghan commanders who fought against the Soviets during 1980’s. Haqqani network, unlike Al-Qaeda, does not consider Pakistan an enemy state, and is not involved in any anti Pakistan activity so far.

Jalaluddin Haqqani

Hizb-i-Islami Established in Pakistan in 1975 to fight against Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Hizb-e Islami is an Islamist organization led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Its membership was drawn from ethnic Pashtuns and its pan-Islamic ideology is drawn from Abul Ala Maududi's teachings. Like Haqqani network, Hizb-i-Islami is also focused in Afghanistan against US and NATO forces and is not hostile towards Pakistan.

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Afghan Taliban

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Profiling militant groups in context of Pakistan’s National security
The problem of militancy and sectarianism cannot be dissected completely without properly and carefully categorizing and profiling all the militant groups in Pakistan according to their ideology, objectives, area of operations and hostility towards Pakistan. These militant organizations in the region can be categorized into four groups; Sectarian, Insurgents, Kashmiri militants and Afghan militant groups. It is often said that the militant assets created by Pakistan in the 80’s are now coming back to haunt Pakistan. Nothing can be further from the truth. The above categorization makes it clear that Pakistan still does not face any threat from the militant assets it created during the Afghan Jihad era. The Kashmiri groups also pose no threat to Pakistan. The violence and insurgency against the State of Pakistan are being conducted by insurgent groups, funded, equipped and created by foreign secret services in post 9/11 era, after the US occupation of Afghanistan. After 9/11 and US invasion of Afghanistan, many Arab and Uzbek fighters fled to Pakistani tribal regions. The groups were heavily penetrated by Indian and Afghan secret services and gave the ideological foundations to the violent philosophy of TTP, which was created in 2005 by CIA/RAW nexus. The Baluch groups are also foreign funded terror outfits, not created by Pakistan.

Major categories of various militant groups active in the region

Sectarian terrorist organizations were present in Pakistan in pre-9/11 era also, but were more of a local law and order issue and not an existential threat to the State, even though the violence was serious and thousands of Pakistanis lost their lives in these sectarian clashes between Shiite and Sunnis. The Government banned these sectarian militant organizations in 2001, though they continue to operate under ground, albeit much weakened. Activities of both SSP and SMP declined rapidly after being banned by the government in 2001. Both SSP and LJ are inspired by Takfiri political thought and have deteriorated into genuine anti-Pakistan terrorist outfits under the umbrella of TTP and Al-Qaeda. Shiite-Sunni clash is not the only dimension of sectarian violence in Pakistan. TTP/LJ are already known to have attacked Barelvi/Sufi sects to create another axis of Deobandi-Barelvi clash.

Secterian and operational classification of groups

Almost, all the anti Pakistan, religious, militant organizations within Pakistan, belong to Deobandi sect (except SMP which is Shiite outfit). It is interesting to note that Barelvis and Sufis do not have any militant outfit within their ranks, and hence more vulnerable to this new dimension of sectarian violence. Kashmiri groups are focused towards their anti-India operations in Indian held Kashmir. Most of these groups have been banned by Pakistani government after 9/11, and their activities are now severely curtailed and closely monitored but still all major groups in this category are no threat to the state of Pakistan. Though Al-Qaeda and IMU were formed during 1990’s, both these organizations established their footprint in Pakistan after 9/11. Prior to that these organizations were present inside Afghanistan but never posed a direct threat to Pakistan until the latter decided to become an ally in US war on terror. Within this complex equation, CIA also wages its own war in the FATA tribal regions through the drone strikes, almost always targeting those elements that are either pro-Pakistan or at least neutral. CIA sometimes does attack TTP and other anti-Pakistan groups, but that is whenever Pakistan army tries to reach a peace deal with them. CIA has sabotaged all the previous attempts of such peace deals between Pakistan army and the insurgents by killing the TTP leaders like Nek Muhemmed who wanted to negotiate peace. Real target of CIA drones are those groups that are not fighting against Pakistani state, like Haqqani, Hekmatyar and Mullah Omar groups.

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Hierarchical tree of militant groups

Except for the military, which has performed extremely well against heavy odds, against these insurgencies and terrorist groups, the rest of the systems of the State, government, media and judiciary have totally collapsed under pressure. The fear of the terrorists has taken the entire State apparatus, including the parliament, as hostage. Today Pakistan is faced with two existential threats: ♦ ♦ Insurgency terrorism. Massive corruption and hemorrhage of State financial resources.

Pakistan national security strategy must be developed in order to respond ruthlessly to these two challenges, even if it means a complete and total overhaul of the political, judicial and media systems. The solutions would be as much political and diplomatic as they are going to be social and military. So far, only one prong – military, has been deployed and is severely under pressure despite major gains on ground. The weakest link in developing a successful anti-insurgency strategy is the lack of political will and absence of moral authority in the political leadership of the country. Religious insurgency cannot be fought with a secular face, neither pacified through appeasement. A strong moral, religious and political authority is required to take the initiative away from the militants and into the hands of the State; same is true for secular insurgencies. A total and complete system and leadership failure through the years has brought the situation to this precipice. Few factors, which have contributed to this serious situation are: ♦ Treating the symptoms and ignoring the disease. Problems cannot be eradicated without uprooting their causes. The root cause of all the crisis, violence and insurgency against Pakistan is the US presence in Afghanistan and India’s 4th generation warfare using Afghanistan as a base. Both TTP and BLA get their support from Indian operators in Afghanistan. So far, Pakistan has not addressed the root cause of the issue nor shaken the centre of gravity of the militants. For that Pakistan will have to become aggressively pro-active and take the war to the insurgents and their sponsors in Afghanistan. US war in Afghanistan is not Pakistan’s war. Pakistan will have to declare neutrality in that conflict and demand withdrawal of US forces from that country. That is the only practical, workable, sustainable long-term solution to all the violence and insurgency in Pakistan. All others would remain stopgap, reactive and temporary solutions. ♦ Lack of any coherent and practical anti-terrorism policy in the country despite facing such a mammoth existential threat from this quarter. Parliament, governments and the judiciary have all avoided the issue deliberately for fear of reprisal from the terrorists. This has been the most fatal internal failure so far. Even the term terrorism and insurgency have not been defined at State level nor groups classified according to their threat levels. Consequently, there are no guidelines for media and national opinion makers on how to tackle the crisis. ♦ Lack of justice and failure of State prosecution services. The Judicial system has collapsed totally and does not prosecute and execute the terrorists. Last terrorist executed through the judicial system was a lone sectarian militant hanged almost 10 years ago!

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Analysis

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♦ Presence of separatists parties with strong alignment with India in the coalition government in Centre, Frontier, Baluchistan and in Sindh have aggravated the crisis and have prevented development of any mature strategy which would respond to the national security needs. In Baluchistan, the Chief Minister and the provincial government is sympathetic to the cause of Baluch separatists, hence no political, economic and military solution is being applied with chaos increasing every day and the situation further exacerbating. ♦ Emotional and political influence of personal views, faith and sect on objective thinking. Almost all major local anti-Pakistan militant groups are from Deobandi School, (SSP, LeJ, TTP, TTP Swat) but the mainstream Deobandi clergy is neither willing to take responsibility, nor condemn suicide attacks by these terrorist groups against the State, people and the armed forces. Major Deobandi political party JUI, which is also the coalition partner with the present regime and had headed the government in Frontier province for five years during Musharraf era, actually supports the militants and is the patron political organization for all Deobandi militant outfits. This complicates the issue of the development of State response against high threat, terror outfits. Fatwas or moral persuasion against terrorism, from other sects do not matter to the terrorist outfits as they only recognize their own scholars from their own sect. ♦ Lack of any media policy or information warfare strategy to isolate the moral authority of the terrorists. Media cannot speak against major terrorists for fear of reprisals nor can it speak against “political leaders” like Altaf Hussain, the leader of MQM. The “free” media is almost a hostage to the militant groups and parties. ♦ There is absolutely no diplomatic or political support, at regional and international levels, to the military in fighting the insurgency. The Foreign Office has been one of the biggest failures in exposing the Indian and foreign hand in orchestrating these insurgencies. There is absolutely no international pressure on insurgents or on their sponsors due to this catastrophic failure to protect national interests by the Foreign Office. US have still not declared Baluch separatists as terrorist groups, nor does the US take TTP as a hostile entity to Pakistan’s interests. US is more interested in making Pakistan wage a war against Afghan groups, which are freedom fighters within Afghanistan and are not hostile to Pakistan. US also wants Pakistan to eliminate Kashmiri groups, which is, in fact the demand of the Indians. US have lately declared LeT as a bigger threat than Al-Qaeda, despite the fact that LeT is now a non-functional Kashmir group and have neither a global agenda nor does it work against US interests. This shows how Indian Foreign Office controls US external policy, especially towards Pakistan. ♦ Lack of specialists in sectarian and religious matters. Perhaps the biggest failure of all regimes in Islamabad has been not to understand and address the situation professionally. Temporary, short-term stop gap arrangements have aggravated the crisis over years. No serious paper or research has ever been conducted to identify the factors, groups and sponsors of these militant movements and terrorist organizations.

Conclusion
The challenge to national security is grave but is well within manageable limits. Pakistan needs a multi prong response comprising of both reactive and pro-active strategies and measures, with a commitment to implement these strategies concurrently on various axis of national security and social development to fight the menace of religious, secular and sectarian radicalization. The situation in Pakistan, in context of sectarian violence and any kind of insurgency was under control before 1979 and also during the Taliban era, between 1996 to 2001. So proposed policies and measures must be directed towards achieving those benchmark eras

The baseline wisdom to handle these challenges is that Pakistan needs a strong Federal Government. The present setup has catastrophically failed. Every challenge is manageable. It is the leadership, which has collapsed. It’s time to devise and implement our homegrown, independent and honorable strategic and national security policies as a Muslim state and as a leader of Islamic world, rather than as a subservient client state of the West and US. These are decisive moments for Pakistan to take this initiative aggressively at national, regional and global level. For the Pakistani nation, it’s now or never! The time for change has arrived! *************************
Note: This article was originally published in Brsstacks Monthly Security Review, September 2010 (Vol. 1 No. 4)

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