RI-01 DCCC IVR (Sept. 2012)
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Daily Kos ElectionsRI-01 DCCC IVR (Sept. 2012)
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Daily Kos ElectionsTO: Interested Parties FROM: Aaron Strauss, DCCC Director of Targeting and Data RE: RI-01 Survey Results
DATE: September 11, 2012 Congressman David Cicilline is in a strong position to win re-election in the 1st congressional district of Rhode Island. Cicilline leads Brendan Doherty by six percentage points in a head-to-head matchup. Nearly all voters have an opinion of the incumbent leaving less room for movement in the last 8 weeks. In the horserace, Cicilline leads 49% to 43%, and is very close to the critical 50% threshold. Only 8% of the electorate is undecided. Virtually all likely voters (99%) recognize the Representatives name, and 87% have an opinion about him. In contrast, only 69% of voters can rate Doherty.
Cicilline Leads Doherty And Is Near 50 50%
40% 30% 20%
49%
+6
43%
The newly-drawn 1st congressional district, which comprises parts of 8% 10% Providence and the eastern part of the state, is heavily Democratic. Party 0% registration favors Democrats by 33 Cicilline Doherty Undecided percentage points (43% Democrats, 10% Republicans). Furthermore, in 2008, thenSenator Obama won 68% of the two-party vote; Senator Kerry won 64% of the two-party vote in 2004. When voters in this survey were asked about the 2008 election, Obama led McCain by 33 pointsvery similar to the actual result. Adding to his advantage, Representative Cicilline kept 92% of his constituents from his current term, and the district became about 1.5 percentage points more Democratic. With nearly all voters having already decided how they feel toward David Cicilline and with Cicilline in the lead, the Representative starts the final stretch in a strong position.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 578 likely 2012 voters conducted September 10, 2012 in Rhode Islands new 1 Congressional district. Respondents information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone by an automated survey. The margin of error for this survey is 4.1 percentage points.
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