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MO Survey of Likely Voters - Polling Memorandum 9-12-2012 (2)

MO Survey of Likely Voters - Polling Memorandum 9-12-2012 (2)

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Wenzel Strategies conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Missouri regarding the race for the U.S. Senate. The survey was conducted September 10-11, 2012, and included 850 respondents. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.33 percentage points.
Wenzel Strategies conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Missouri regarding the race for the U.S. Senate. The survey was conducted September 10-11, 2012, and included 850 respondents. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.33 percentage points.

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Published by: Citizens United Political Victory Fund on Sep 13, 2012
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09/13/2012

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POLLING MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Survey of Likely Voters Statewide in Missouri
Wenzel Strategies is a public opinion research firm, established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio that works with political, business, non-profit, media, and government clients nationwide. It conducted a survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Missouri regarding the November election. The survey was conducted September 10-11, 2012, and included 850 respondents. The margin of error for the survey is +/3.33 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely General Election voters in Missouri shows that Republican Mitt Romney has opened up a substantial 19-point lead over Barack Obama, leading him there by a 57% to 38% margin. This first survey in Missouri after both conventions shows voters there have a significantly unfavorable view of Obama – 53% say they hold an unfavorable opinion of him, while 46% have a favorable opinion. Romney, meanwhile, is seen favorably by 63% of likely voters, while 36% have an unfavorable opinion of the GOP presidential challenger. Romney has also done well to lock up his base in Missouri. Democrats are less likely to support Obama than are Republicans to support Romney, the survey shows. While 81% of Democrats support Obama, 96% of Republicans back Romney. But Romney’s overall edge stems from his significant advantage among independent voters, where he leads by a 68% to 25% margin. In the race for U.S. Senate, the survey shows Republican Todd Akin has regained a lead over Democrat Claire McCaskill, winning 48% support to 43% support for McCaskill. Another 10% of likely voters said they were yet undecided. Both Akin and McCaskill win solid levels of support from their own party’s voters, as Akin wins 86% support among Republicans and McCaskill wins 82% support from Democrats. Among independents, Akin leads McCaskill, 45% to 37%. About 20% of independents said they have yet to make up their minds about the race. Missouri voters dislike both McCaskill and Akin more than they like them, the survey showed. While 44% said they have a favorable opinion of McCaskill, 55% said they have an unfavorable opinion of her. Akin fares a little better, as 47% have a favorable opinion of him, compared to 50% who said their opinion of Akin is unfavorable. There is not a lot of wiggle room left in this Senate race, the poll shows, as 85% of voters said they are firm in their choice and that it is unlikely they will change their minds before they vote.

Q. If the election for U.S. President was today, and the candidates were Republican Mitt Romney
and Democrat Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
Q-PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

Frequency ROMNEY OBAMA
Valid

Percent 57.2 37.6 5.2 100.0

Valid Percent 57.2 37.6 5.2 100.0

Cumulative Percent

486 320 44 850

57.2 94.8 100.0

NOT SURE Total

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