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The World's New Numbers
by Martin Walker
JOHN STUART MILL'S "VERY SIMPLE PRINCIPLE"
Wherever there's a debate over gay marriage, free speech, or even smoking in public places, the arguments John Stuart Mill made in On Liberty are still in the thick of the action.
“Here lies Europe, overwhelmed by Muslim immigrants and emptied of native-born Europeans,” goes the standard pundit line, but neither the immigrants nor the Europeans are playing their assigned roles.
Listen as Martin Walker discusses demographic change on dialogue. Something dramatic has happened to the world’s birthrates. Defying predictions of demographic decline, northern Europeans have started having more babies. Britain and France are now projecting steady population growth through the middle of the century. In North America, the trends are similar. In 2050, according to United Nations projections, it is possible that nearly as many babies will be born in the United States as in China. Indeed, the population of the world’s current demographic colossus will be shrinking. And China is but one particularly sharp example of a widespread fall in birthrates that is occurring across most of the developing world, including much of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The one glaring exception to this trend is sub-Saharan Africa, which by the end of this century may be home to one-third of the human race. The human habit is simply to project current trends into the future. Demographic realities are seldom kind to the predictions that result. The decision to have a child depends on innumerable personal considerations and larger, unaccountable societal factors that are in constant flux. Yet even knowing this, demographers themselves are often flummoxed. Projections of birthrates and population totals are often embarrassingly at odds with eventual reality. In 1998, the UN’s “best guess” for 2050 was that there would be 8.9 billion humans on the planet. Two years later, the figure was revised to 9.3 billion—in effect, adding two Brazils to the world. The number subsequently fell and rose again. Modest changes in birthrates can have bigger consequences over a couple of generations: The recent rise in U.S. and European birthrates is among the developments factored into the UN’s latest “middle” projection that world population in 2050 will be just over 9.1 billion. In a society in which an average woman bears 2.1 children in her lifetime—what’s called “replacement-level” fertility—the population remains stable. When demographers make tiny adjustments to estimates of future fertility rates, population projections can fluctuate wildly. Plausible scenarios for the next 40 years show world population shrinking to eight billion or growing to 10.5 billion. A recent UN projection rather daringly assumes a decline of the global fertility rate to 2.02 by 2050, and eventually to 1.85, with total world population starting to decrease by the end of this century. Despite their many uncertainties, demographic projections have become an essential tool. Governments, international agencies, and private corporations depend on them in planning strategy and making long-term investments. They seek to estimate such things as the number of pensioners, the cost of health care, and the size of the labor force many years into the future. But the detailed statistical work of demographers tends to seep out to the general public in crude form, and sensationalist headlines soon become common wisdom. Because of this bastardization of knowledge, three deeply misleading assumptions about demographic trends have become lodged in the public mind. The first is that mass migration into Europe, legal and illegal, combined with an eroding native population base, is transforming the ethnic, cultural, and religious identity of the continent. The second assumption, which is related to the first, is that Europe’s native population is in steady and serious decline from a falling birthrate, and that the aging population will place intolerable demands on governments to maintain public pension and health systems. The third is that population growth in the developing world will continue at a high rate. Allowing for the uncertainty of all population projections, the most recent data indicate that all of these assumptions are highly questionable and that they are not a reliable basis for serious policy decisions. In 2007, The Times of London reported that in the previous year Muhammad had edged out Thomas as the
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THE PESSIMIST PERSUASION
Throughout history, many intellectuals have been willing to write their society's obituary long before the game was up.
1. A History of the Past: 'Life Reeked With Joy'
by Anders Henriksson
2. The World's New Numbers
by Martin Walker
3. The Withering of the Affluent Society
by Robert J. Samuelson
4. Robots at War: The New Battlefield
by P. W. Singer
The Wilson Quarterly
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but they point in a clear direction. The implications are profound for the politics and power games of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. and for Turkish-born women from 3. Most analysts have focused on the remarkably high proportion of people under age 25 in the Arab countries. suggested in 2004 that the combination of low European birthrates and increasing Muslim immigration means that by this century’s end. The Times compiled all the variants and established that 5. Europe will be “part of the Arabic west.2) and Malaysia (2. with a striking contribution from women in their thirties and forties—just the kind of hard-to-predict behavioral change that drives demographers wild. even Pakistan is expected to reach a replacement-level fertility rate. Turkey is experiencing a similar trend. The National Health Service has started an emergency recruitment drive to hire more midwives. Princeton professor emeritus Bernard Lewis. Both Britain and France now project that their populations will rise from the current 60 million each to more than 75 million by midcentury. but ahead of 5. the fertility rate was 6. Upon closer inspection.com/article. The Times went on to predict that Muhammad would soon take the top spot.6 to 1. Germany. Only two Arab countries still have high fertility rates: Yemen and the Palestinian territories.wilsonquarterly. Broadly speaking.02.35) in the same period. In Britain. By 2050. In some Muslim countries—Tunisia. this seemed to bear out the thesis—something of a rallying cry among anti-immigration activists—that high birthrates among immigrant Muslims presage a fundamental shift in British demography. The falling fertility rates in large segments of the Islamic world have been matched by another significant shift: Across northern and western Europe.991 Muhammads of one spelling or another were born in 2006.9. Kuwait. announced in February that the country had recorded its second straight year of increased births. as Middle East specialist Daniel Pipes predicted in The New York Sun. it had dropped to 2. a shade below replacement level.” If non-Muslims then flee Europe. One fact that gets lost among distractions such as the Times story is that the birthrates of Muslim women in Europe—and around the world—have been falling significantly for some time. it was something of a Pyrrhic victory: Fewer than two percent of Britain’s male babies bore the prophet’s name. These sharp reductions in fertility among Muslim immigrants reflect important cultural shifts.208 Olivers. tempting https://www. Iran is experiencing what may be one of the most dramatic demographic shifts in human history. the inculcation of local mores. This development had been masked in the official statistics because the name’s many variants—such as Mohammed. and that the number of births among women under the age of 20 is dropping even more sharply. which by midcentury may have consumed all of its oil and will confront the challenge of organizing a society with few people of working age and many pensioners. Turkish-born women in Germany had on average two children more than German-born women. which include universal female education.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM second most popular name for newborn boys in Britain. are both dropping fast toward such levels. however.808 Joshuas.9 in just six years.7. “grand cathedrals will appear as vestiges of a prior civilization—at least until a Saudi-style regime transforms them into mosques or a Taliban-like regime blows them up.5.928 Jacks. Mahmoud. 5. which has inspired some crude forecasts about what this implies for the future. and 5. where birthrates among native-born women have long fallen below replacement level.921 Thomases. Bahrain. after the shah had been driven into exile and the Islamic Republic was being established. it turns out that while Muhammad topped Thomas in 2006. rising living standards. The same UN assessment sees declines in Bangladesh (to 2.” The reality. and widespread availability of contraception. Germany’s minister for the family. the country with the world’s largest Muslim population. still seems likely to drop to 70 million or less by 2050 and lose its status as Europe’s most populous country. Sweden’s fertility rate jumped eight percent in 2004 and stayed put. for example. a leading authority on Islamic history. Similar developments in other European countries.2. Data on birthrates among different religious groups in Europe are scarce.9 to 2. Ursula von der Leyen. In 1970. Thirty years ago. and Lebanon—fertility rates have already fallen to near-European levels.cfm?aid=1408 Page 2 of 13 . trailing 6. the number of births rose in 2007 for the sixth year in a row. Today. the United Arab Emirates. at 1. the fertility rate in the Netherlands for Moroccan-born women fell from 4. despite its recent uptick in births.9. Britain’s fertility rate has increased from 1. and it has now dropped to half that number. The fertility rate is at its highest level since 1980. Algeria and Morocco. Yet recent UN data suggest that Arab birthrates are falling fast. The decline of Muslim birthrates is a global phenomenon. and Muhamed— had all been counted separately. have provoked considerable anxiety about the future of Europe’s traditionally Christian culture. the difference had fallen to one child.4. birthrates among immigrants tend to rise or fall to the local statistical norm within two generations. of the Maghreb. By the turn of the century. On the face of it. each with a fertility rate of 2. it has collapsed to European levels. women have suddenly started having more babies. Between 1990 and 2005. The report suggests that in Indonesia. putting into doubt Iran’s dreams of being the regional superpower and altering the tense dynamics between the Sunni and Shiite wings of Islam. the fertility rate for the years 2010–15 will drop to 2. Equally important are the implications for the economic future of Iran.2 to 1. trailing only Jack. By 1996. Revisions made in the 2008 version of the UN’s World Population Prospects Report make it clear that this decline is not simply a Middle Eastern phenomenon. looks rather different from such dire scenarios.
But these sorts of projections don’t capture the full picture. retired at age 60. The Czech Republic. It currently has about four people of working age for every three dependents. its highest level since before 1980. significantly. Second. the effects of declining fertility are amplified by a phenomenon so extreme that it has given rise to an ominous new term—hypermortality. but the generous social welfare system allows others to withdraw from work earlier in life. the fertility rate has risen from 1. Because of its low birthrate.1 in 2007. but they do not know how serious it is and [what] drastic reforms are necessary. says a 2008 report by the UN Development Program. Eighty-two percent of that increase will be produced by new immigrants and their U. There are at least three mitigating factors to be considered. which is being slowly introduced in France and Germany. The first is that the traditional retirement age of 60 in Italy. the population of the United States will rise from today’s total of some 300 million to 438 million in 2050. would sharply reduce the number of nonworkers who depend on the employed for support.wilsonquarterly. now has a population of 46 million.-born descendants. which suggest that the German welfare state and others in Europe might not have to be dismantled wholesale. compared with 76 https://www. the downward population trends for southern and eastern Europe show little sign of reversal. It is important to consider what this means for the future of the Russian economy.cfm?aid=1408 Page 3 of 13 . if maintained. At a 2004 conference in Paris. In Russia.7 while longevity increased gradually to 83—close to where Europe is now —the tax would rise to 45 percent of the wage bill. those four working-age Germans would be required to support five dependents.” Immigrant mothers account for part of the fertility increase throughout Europe. In 2007. at least until life expectancy rose as high as 90 years. where the fertility rate has climbed to its highest level since 1971. France’s National Institute of Demographic Studies reports that the immigrant population is responsible for only five percent of the rise in the birthrate. Oksanen went on to describe the dire implications for European tax systems. New projections by the Pew Research Center suggest that if current trends continue. many of the immigrants are arrivals from elsewhere in Europe. especially considering that life expectancy is approaching 80 and that modern diets and medicine allow many elderly people to continue working well into their seventies. Not only do Germans retire on the early side. “mortality in Russia is 3–5 times higher for men and twice as high for women” than in other countries at a comparable stage of development.S. Russia has been the object of great hopes and considerable investments. and Germany is very early indeed. And. France. Ukraine. Children born to eastern European immigrants accounted for a third of Scotland’s “mini baby boom. and China) of key emerging markets. reaching 2.” he said. Heikki Oksanen of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs noted that the European social model of generous welfare states is facing a crisis because the number of retirees is rising while the number of working-age people is declining. for example. according to the National Center for Health Statistics.” for example.1 in 2006. The report—which echoes earlier findings by demographers such as the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Murray Feshbach—predicts that within little more than a decade the working-age population will be shrinking by up to one million people annually.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM early retirees from the profession back to work with a bonus of up to $6. India. For example. An increase in employment would boost the revenues flowing into the social security system. A retirement age of 70 in Germany would virtually end the problem. But if fertility decreased to 1. Even absent Russia’s dire conditions. Germany’s problem is particularly acute. and Poland face declines almost as drastic. where births have been increasing by five percent a year. despite a steady fall in birthrates among women not born in France.com/article. Glasgow’s Herald has reported “a mini baby boom. In Scotland. and lived to 78. only 67 percent of women in Germany were in the work force in 2005. By contrast. France’s national statistical authority announced that the country had overtaken Ireland to boast the highest birthrate in Europe. its low fertility rate will whittle its population down by nearly 50 percent by mid-century. the work force participation rate in Germany (and much of continental Europe) is relatively low. A pay-as-you-go pension scheme would take “only” 27 percent of wages if Europeans had replacement-level fertility. Under one scenario for 2050.7 in 1993 to 2. An increase of the retirement age to 65. Identified by Goldman Sachs as one of the BRIC quartet (along with Brazil. In France. As a result of the rampant spread of maladies such as HIV/AIDS and alcoholism and the deterioration of the Russian health care system. the social and political implications of an aging population are plain and alarming. The Russian future highlights in exaggerated fashion another challenge facing the European countries.000. A similar upturn is under way in the United States. “People are aware that there is a problem. especially the eastern European countries admitted to the European Union in recent years. but only part. Italy. But a very large question mark must be placed on the economic prospects of a country whose young male work force looks set to decrease by half. as would more employment for people below the age of 20. Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major war.
millions of Chinese males may never find a mate with whom to raise a conventional family. this forecast of the Chinese future could well be wrong. but only if nothing changes—China maintains its one-child policy and India does not launch the kind of crash program of birth control that Prime Minister Indira Gandhi so controversially attempted in the 1970s. The non-Arab Muslim countries of Africa—Niger. As a result. the feeblest economies. Depending on the future course of birthrates. a demographer at Oxford University.) David Coleman. Wider availability of this technology has permitted an increase in gender-specific abortions. there were only 49 dependents for every 100 working-age Americans. in which demography relies on hard census data rather than assumptions about the future. By 2002. The difference is that while most dependents in the 1960s were young. the average woman will have upward of five children in her lifetime. Only a handful of scholars questioned the idea that the Chinese would outnumber all other groupsfor decades or even centuries to come. and that is in mapping the youth cohort. and Burundi—are expected to experience growth of 100 to 200 percent. most of the dependents of 2009 are older.cfm?aid=1408 Page 4 of 13 . the least infrastructure. Population growth on a scale comparable to that which frightened pundits and demographers a generation ago still exists in 30 of the world’s least developed countries. Each has a fertility rate of more than five.com/article. Rome. Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories—those countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa. By midcentury. and Senegal—constitute the one region of the Islamic world where birthrates remain high. The Chinese call such lonely males “bare branches. By 2025 there are projected to be 80. reaching 147 million and 91 million. Smaller countries—such as Liberia. Niger. but Kinshasa. and Manila. But the point is clear: There is nothing outlandish about having almost as many dependents as working adults. There is one area. They also face daunting problems of environmental degradation—and the lesson from Darfur and the Rwanda genocide is that disaster can follow when population growth strains local environments so badly that people cannot feed themselves. In several of these countries. as Africa becomes the home of monotheism. Chad. By 2050. the national populations are expected to more than double in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. there will be as many Christians in subSaharan Africa—some 640 million—as in South America. At the turn of this century.7 billion by 2050 and three billion by the end of the century. Paris. Athens. now 1. when there were 95 dependents for every 100 adults between the ages of 20 and 64.wilsonquarterly. These are the countries with the weakest state institutions. sub-Saharan Africa’s current 800 million people are likely to become 1. Mali. home to as many Muslims as Asia and to far more than inhabit the Middle East. The EU itself has set a target participation rate of 70 percent for both sexes. (The average rate for the 15 “core” EU states is 64 percent. There is another development that could affect future Indian and Chinese birthrates: the use of sonograms to ascertain the sex of a fetus. Buenos Aires. All of the teenagers who will be alive in 2020 have already been born. Mali.” The social and political implications of having such a large https://www. By 2025. Reaching this goal would significantly alleviate the fiscal challenge of maintaining Europe’s welfare system. One striking implication of this growth is that there will be a great religious revolution. however. but only 270 million Chinese. the most onerous year for dependency was 1965. This gap will grow. London. Burkina Faso. Christianity will also feel the effects of Africa’s growth. and Africa’s population faced devastation by HIV/AIDS. with their working and saving and contributing lives ahead of them. That occurred because “dependents” includes people both younger and older than working age.3 billion.” The third mitigating factor is that the total dependency ratios of the 21st century are going to look remarkably similar to those of the 1960s. With a few exceptions—notably. New York. In fact.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM percent in Denmark and 78 percent in Switzerland. As Kenyan scholar John Mbiti writes. Because there are so many assumptions embedded in it. with more dependency still to come. and thus the poorest health and education systems. the latest UN projections suggest that China’s population. The official Chinese figures suggest that 118 boys are now being born in China for every 100 girls. sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be the demographic center of Islam. India seems very likely to become the world’s most populous country by 2030 or thereabouts. has suggested that the EU’s work force could be increased by nearly a third if both sexes were to match Denmark’s participation rates. the conventional wisdom among demographers was that the population of Europe was in precipitous decline. The various demographic changes I have described arrived with remarkable speed. the Islamic world was in the grip of a population explosion. “The centers of the church’s universality [are] no longer in Geneva. for the United States. will increase slowly through 2030 but may then be reduced to half that number by the end of the century. By 2050. still well below the peak of 1965. it is almost certain that most of the world’s Christians will live in Africa. respectively. In the United States. which has been aptly described as “more of a labor-market challenge than a demographic crisis. Addis Ababa. 70 percent. So a strong indication of the eventual end of China’s dominance of world population statistics is apparent in the fact that there are now 372 million Indians under the age of 15.” But awareness of Africa’s religious revolution is usually overshadowed by the fearful possibilities raised by the continent’s rapid population growth. however.
when for the first time the number of people in the developed world over the age of 60 outnumbered those below the age of 15. six million in Pakistan. Gender imbalances are not limited to China. They are apparent in South Korea. seeking better. and it is expected to reach 38 by the middle of the century. They will not stay there long. a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. By 2047. and starting to consume at levels comparable to those of the middle classes in developed societies. and the Middle East. the median age at that point will be a youngish 41. education for their children. is now estimated to number between 100 million and 150 million people. 40 million each in China and India. with a third of this number residing in China. perhaps the fastest-growing discrete segment of the world’s population. The global economic recession will retard but not halt the expansion of the middle class—nobody expected growth without interruption. There is more and faster change to come.8 billion. Full text PDF available here. The lower the birthrate. And other scholars contend that China’s population is now aging so fast that the growing numbers of elderly people may well balance the surge of frustrated young males to produce a calmer and more peaceful nation. China is also a key site of another striking demographic change: the rapid growth of the global middle class. the global middle class will swell by as many as 1.cfm?aid=1408 Page 5 of 13 . Britain. In the United States. and Italy were all demographic titans in the middle of the 20th century. Some put the figure in India as high as 200 million. more professional force. Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council. the world as a whole will reach the same point. The world is aging in an unprecedented way. “The rate of criminal behavior of unmarried men is many times higher than that of married men. particularly among the Sikhs. The state’s response to crime and social unrest could prove to be a defining factor for China’s political future. antisocial. but they are not likely to be happy. the greater the likelihood that a given society is developing—investing in education. and Internet access. Martin Walker. But it is apparent from the urban landscape across the developing world—whether in Mumbai or Shanghai. A milepost in this process came in 1998. T. illegal. and eventually cars. more varied foods and more meat. which includes an air-conditioned house with a car in the garage. and increasingly in India. The United States will be the only Western country to have been in the top 10 largest countries in terms of population size in both 1950 and 2050. while it will be over 50 in Japan and 47 in Europe. As societies clamber up the prosperity chain. Valerie Hudson of Brigham Young University and Andrea den Boer of Britain’s University of Kent at Canterbury calculate that there 90 million “missing” women in Asia. São Paulo or Moscow. Pakistan.” Other specialists are not as alarmed. along with the chance to raise a limited number of children. they also climb the protein ladder. and three million in Bangladesh. Today.” Resulting cross-border “bridal raids.com/article. marriage is a reliable predictor of a downturn in reckless. While the planet’s population is expected to grow by about one billion people by 2020. running water and flush toilets. 12 to 15 percent of their young adult males will not be able to ‘settle down’ because the girls that would have grown up to be their wives were disposed of by their societies instead?” They answered. This pattern is apparent in China. satellite TV. only Russia and Japan still (barely) make the top 10. Germany. Military observers point out that China is moving from a conscript army to a leaner. they also climb the mobility ladder. Absent a shock factor such as war or famine. a private garden. Central Intelligence Agency asked Hudson to discuss her dramatic suggestion that “in 2020 it may seem to China that it would be worth it to have a very bloody battle in which a lot of their young men could die in some glorious cause. accumulating disposable income and savings. India. is senior director of A. Japan. defined as those in households with incomes above about $10. The U. seeking bicycles. Dubai or Istanbul—that a growing proportion of consumers seek to emulate a Western-international lifestyle. COMMENTS (48) The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and in no way represent the views or opinions of the https://www. Whether the biosphere can adapt to such increases in consumption remains a critical question. all of whom will have the opportunity to go to college.wilsonquarterly. electricity and appliances such as refrigerators and televisions and computers. Russia.” rising crime rates. The world’s median age is 28 today. “Will it matter to India and China that by the year 2020. Bangladesh. Perhaps the most striking fact about the demographic transformation now unfolding is that it is going to make the world look a lot more like Europe. motor scooters. and widespread prostitution may come to define what could be called the geopolitics of sexual frustration. The world has changed.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM population of unattached men are unclear.000 a year. China’s new middle class.S. and violent behavior by young adult males. In a recent paper Hudson and den Boer asked. Taiwan. provision for health care and retirement and vacations. a society with a falling birthrate tends to be aspirational: Its members seek decent housing.
as the loudest of my colleagues was clamoring for.com/post/? q=YjhkOTVlZTBhNzQxMWE4MGYxODI4NGQ0NDE4M2U5NjA= Posted by: Ted S.1 percent drop in the birthrate — or 8.cfm?aid=1408 Page 6 of 13 . While the Russian birth rate is still below replacement level. like most other educated. Make sure you also show your right-wing co-workers this: http://corner.000/year. | 5/5/09 Dependents' Costs Children's education can certainly be just as expensive as seniors. and consequently the pace of Russian population decline has slowed dramatically. the effects of declining fertility.nationalreview. though... Posted by: WJ | 5/4/09 In the words of the late.000 fewer children for a country already worried about its growing demographic crisis." Russian fertility is no longer declining. Posted by: Park Slope Pubby | 5/3/09 German demographics Early statistics indicated that Germany’s birth rate was rising because of new. Posted by: Robert Hume | 5/5/09 Cost per child That $12K figure is cherry picked. the German Federal Statistical Office released preliminary figures for all of 2008. but my initial bet would be that the per capita cost of seniors is greater than kids. Despite lavish benefits. Posted by: Jon0815 | 5/4/09 Don't Panic! . middle-class couples.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. seniors now and in the future) (per working age population) in the 1960's. This should have been mentioned in the article. Posted by: Lee Podles | 5/3/09 Don't completely buy his thesis "Fewer than two percent of Britain’s male babies bore the prophet’s name. 2008 saw a 1. a newly-wed 29 year old. it has been rising for several years now. Five. With increased efficiencies it is to be expected that there will be much less work available and we will have the benefit (others will say the risk) of getting technological satiated with increasingly better products that will surpass our senses. would be insanity. How does this little factoid tell us how many children were born to Muslim immigrants in England? They could be naming their kids Jack as well? The key fact that the author acknowledges is that with the little data that is known. Our inflexible societies are not prepared to that. For example. Amanda. the US (where I'm from)..wilsonquarterly. but it is still there. the German birth rate continues to drop."be ready to wear a burkha in twenty years!" We're hoping for two kids. Rather than the heralded rise in births. the average expense for elementary school education in DC is about $12.. Posted by: Amanda | 5/4/09 Jobs and Life expectancy Jobs don't apear out of thin air. Sweden. and the news is not pretty.". Another piece of info that he implies is that the number of dependents in the future will be no problem as we have had the same number (children then. whether in Germany (where we are).Don't Panic! Thanks for a fascinating article to show my right-wing co-workers who point an accusing finger at me. Der Spiegel reports On Tuesday. Homeschooled children have a per capita cost in the low https://www. It represents the high end. It is needed that jobs fullfill some market(people) necessity. great Douglas Adams . But the statistics were misleading. So long as you like Euro-collapse.com/article. immigrant women in Europe have more children than native born Europeans. The difference may have narrowed. This section is moderated by Wilson Quarterly staff. Turkey or India. for not wanting to be a breeding machine . wow Thanks for a fascinating article. Just to note that several countries are already over 80 years in Life expectancy like France. Posted by: lucklucky | 5/4/09 Russian Birthrate From the article: "In Russia. generous government polices. I'm no expert. Canada.
The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM hundreds of dollars. unless there are smart drugs. Ditto for Amsterdam. fertility rates of white French women born in France and black or Muslim women living in France and born anywhere? Are researchers allowed to collect information like that or do they need to play games like collecting data on fertility of women born in Morocco? Posted by: PM | 5/5/09 Steyn is the statiscal fearmongerer OMG. within a few generations there will be few smart people.dk/Nyheder/Indland/2009/05/06/083729. and about French Canadian Catholics in Canada. He says: "Walker doesn't provide any serious evidence that ethnic European birthrates are increasing. Who needs that.htm in english http://islamineurope. they WILL seek security in larger families. last an average of 3 to 6 years. the birthrate among Euro-muslims KEEPS falling. according to the Danish statiscal institute. Berlin. has all the hallmarks of a bad scifi movie. I don't remember seeing too many Mormans over there. however. we have a scifi answer: infect them with the equality socioeconomic status virus. was down by more than half a standard deviation in children. But. Finally: When Italy and Spain were extremely poor. The fact that they're Islamic i n background has little or no influence. !!! Wait. Meanwhile nursing home costs are now over $70K/yr. Luckily. Besides having children entails sacrifice. And whats more. they do it when they start to resemble the host nations socio economic status. not only do you fail to actually prove the white European fertility rates are increasing (it just looks like you wrote that the gap between Muslims and Christians was shrinking). they had high birth rates as well.cfm?aid=1408 Page 7 of 13 . eventually comes up hard against reality. LOGICALLY disappear! The "immigrants breed like rabbits and they will outnumber us soon" is very.com/2009/05/denmark-immigrantsdanes-have-same. the trends could drastically change if European women under 35 began to have 2 and 3 children.." Well.. Posted by: Greyswan | 5/9/09 Cost of Seniors Of Course those who live at the Nursing Facilities. It was said about Italian and Irish in NYC. and?? They will magically. you also fail to address which white Europeans are having children. I beliveve Education of children with college & prolonged childhoods much exceeds that of dependent seniors. and lots of stress. sorry. And we don't do Endlosung in Europe anymore. we could beat our chest and demand that we don't succumb to this threat of "Equalize us or you'll be run over". the OB ward of thier local hospital would have closed many years ago if it wasn't for the Islamic minorities. Is it allowed to collect it in the lands of political correctness? What are e. Data manipulation. And if you're so worried???? Make more kids!!! Posted by: TheSteelGeneral | 5/6/09 Stats Demographics like Climate Science is driven by statistical analysis. this is all anecdotal. and in Sweden and Norway homeschooling has become the norm in many towns simply because there are not enough children to justify the cost of even a 1 room school house. Unless . Look at them now!! With 1. Posted by: ubercheesehead | 5/5/09 Freedom of research? When I read about fertility rates in Western Europe I wonder how it is distributed among different groups of women depending on their nationality. of course you WANT TO believe that all muslim immigrant come to Europe with a sinister TAKE over plan . Yes. didn't I see that movie? Invasion of the body snatchers? Yep. the average age of a farmer is 65. In Frankfurt Germany. But eventually the evidence piles up.3 they are among the lowest. they are: http://www. the data and algorithims can be manipulated. Lots deaths through war as well. In Italy. if Mark Steyn is being quoted it's really bad.blogspot. I would guess that this is indicative of all developed countries. Posted by: Katie | 5/15/09 Russia fertility With an average female age over forty it is going to take a large fertility increase to prevent a long phase of population https://www.. this will be reflected in birthing numbers. The article gives only few hints on very existence of such data. The "Islamization of Europe" narrative. but throwing tantrums is not helpful. Both have proven to be wrong. skin colour and religion.dr. and Brussells. But if muslims continue to be marginalized.g. I read a study that said that the right half of the bell curve in Britain (IQ). Yes. In between are many other figures closer to $6K. a drain on income. Of course.com/article. very old. And in the richer muslim states. on average. Only the extremely poor African countries have birthrates of 5 to 6. if they are well integrated. right? Posted by: JP | 5/7/09 Analysis seems thin Unfortunately. In other words.html This report points to a basic fact which makes logical sense: Immigrants don't just adopt the birthing statistics of the host nation. In other words.wilsonquarterly..
The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM decline. northern Europeans have started having more babies. for example.N. Why? Because in the past.".should the World on a whole be declining or rising in population? I was referred to this article because the other fellow claimed it had these answers. Sri Lanka 1938-1984) routinely ended up not just growing larger.g.' ) Most importantly. again turn out to be dramatic underestimates of the numbers that actually emerge. -From a mother of nine. making the 'leading' "John" a relativly tiny % of the total. (P. How does this little factoid tell us how many children were born to Muslim immigrants in England? They could be naming their kids Jack as well?" The factoid is a refutation of The Times' factoid about the name Mohammad that has been repeated incessantly as part of the debate on this issue. This last fact is the lesson that Sri Lanka holds for the world today: Even if we succeed in lowering birth rates around the world. and over time. ALL these nations are small for Muslim countries. real-world populations with decades of falling birth rates (e. -total population of Western World vs.N. really. Thus. is that medical advances end up lowering death rates more dramatically than expected so that dramatic reductions in mortality end up canceling-out tendencies otherwise suggested by falling birth rates. If a similar set of events takes place worldwide and affects generations now living.. I can't see how we can be complacent about this. Posted by: j3f3r | 6/20/09 Why the new U. Rest of the World 2-He doesn't explain the reasoning behind this whole 'question'.. population projections could.. What I found was an attempt but it doesn't conclude the 'Question'. secondly.-Amanda. life-extension. this makes an enormous difference. and I am horrified at the indifference of European and Western nations at their incoming demographic fate. total of Immigrants for the past 10 years. Kuwait. however. and Lebanon. five children would be riches and despite the trouble and hard work. regardless of natives and immigrants. Posted by: eulogos | 5/27/09 Lacking That's an odd coincidence because I'm from a family of 9 kids! This whole argument reminds me of that bit in Monty Python's 'Meaning of Life' where the Catholics are sprouting up everywhere.. Posted by: Snake Oil Baron | 5/17/09 Amanda. please think again Amanda. Bahrain. our populations could end up growing faster instead of more slowly. Martin for this excellent article. progress in medical research. It is true that '. What I didn't like about this article is the following: 1The statistics are about everything but what they need to be. And there are probably a lot more apostates and secularists of Muslim background named Mohammad than there are orthodox Muslims named Jack. You know the funny this is. Result? In the past. when taken together.. world population by 2100 could end up closer to 13 billion than to the 9 or 10 billion https://www.wilsonquarterly. All I've seen are the same ones I've read in articles expressing opposite views. like so many demographic projections in the past. of these only Lebanon and Tunisia are actually at sub-replacement fertility.. the Islamic countries cited as having near European fertility levels were Tunisia. why would 5 kids be insanity? And where's your sense of adventure?) Posted by: Philip Hunt | 6/5/09 factoid "Fewer than two percent of Britain’s male babies bore the prophet’s name. And there is enough love to go around. the most prominent being 'The World's New w Numbers'. This is offer to two additional observations concerning the latest U. The factor that has repeatedly confounded such projections. while both trends each constitute one sort of good news. and biotechnologies may well end up lowering death rates even more. they were right! Now we're seeing the Muslims copy the same techniques. Posted by: emblazoned | 6/18/09 The Prophet’s Name Also note that the pool of usual 1st names may be smaller for other cultures than it is in England. would bring more joy than all the things and other satisfactions you could have instead. but growing faster-than-ever.. I find much of this article misleading. Why are people afraid of rising Muslim immigration ? Why was the Western birthrate declining and the rest growing?(which even he admits in the line '. population projecions: (1) The most recent U.. projections may turn out to be serious underestimates Thank you to the Wilson Quarterly and Dr. Posted by: Snake Oil Baron | 6/10/09 This is misleading. decades of falling birth rates were expected to slow rates of population growth.. First. at the end of the day.cfm?aid=1408 Page 8 of 13 . What it needs is this: -total current birthrate of Native Europeans vs.S. He denounces projections of the future but many of his counterpoints are based on them.N. it isn't something which gets split up like a pie.com/article. the United Arab Emirates. sensationalist headlines soon become common isdom'. Brothers and sisters are the best gifts you can give your children.
cfm?aid=1408 Page 9 of 13 . In a recent review article.com/article. I concur entirely with one of the "asides" in Martin Walker's article: "Whether the biosphere can adapt to such increases in consumption remains a critical question. Cynthia Kenyon (2005) reports on six-fold extensions of lifespans that have already occurred in laboratory organisms. will intervene. (It will be completed eventually. today’s genetics. And. Thus. but repeatedly . Like one of the commenters. some replacement-level fertility rates may. As a member of the natural science community. landed on its surface.wilsonquarterly. after one or more generations. Less than seven decades later. Moreover. (2) Problematic failures of Demographic Transition Theory Suppose that science and medical research bring about advances that result in relatively sudden and unexpected reductions in mortality. I have an ever-strengthening hunch that we will see some kind of a "momentous population reset" in this century. and life-extension may have farreaching impacts on death rates and demographics in the half-century just ahead. current theory postulates a gradual decline in fertility rates that slowly reduces them to levels commensurate with mortality rates. but I fear that this century will be calamitous. or Nature. is the role of science. at most. I worry about my posterity. technology. You can find it on the UK National statistics website. and. populations skyrocket as births greatly exceed the lowered death rates). How? Why? Because science. for example.per century?) The suppostions above may actually be surprisingly more realistic than they at first seem. white 1. considering the fact that we are on-track to add our seventh. for instance. U. In other words. imagine. but with each delay in the transition. At Kitty Hawk. eighth. your article is a real eye-opener. especially as it pertains to my beloved. rather upheavals. projections. astronauts traveled to the moon. then." Posted by: rocky xviii | 9/1/09 Very incisive analysis Sir.so that our falling fertility rates are never allowed to catch up. followed by quick proliferation and progression to today's capabilities with breathtaking speed. and returned safely to earth again in just over one week. medicine. And finally. therefore. Either Man. Finally. As has been pointed out elsewhere. (In effect.0 https://www. proliferation. over the past one hundred years.S.5 billion people having living standards approaching those of the west. the coup de grace of all this is that the emerging advances in longevity seen in laboratory organisms (and compounds. fourth.) As fertility rates slowly and gradually adjust to an initial mortality reduction. have succeeded in multiplying lifespan in laboratory organisms six-fold. It think that most of the so-called fifty. perhaps.) What current theory does not fully articulate. falling fertility never catches up to the multiple new reductions in mortality and the interim stage of the transition (with its period of soaring population) is never completed.or hundred-year demographic predictions are basically bunkum. Posted by: PURU RAJ | 9/21/09 UK Fertility by Ethnic Group Richard Berthoud made some estimates for UK fertility by ethnic group in the UK 2001 ONS Population Trends 104. third. the demographic scene will alter very non-linearly and to some extent unpredictably. And they hope. so that our degree of overshoot becomes so great that complete collapse can no longer be avoided. of course. the earth's carrying capacity for an industrialized humanity is almost certainly somewhat less than two billion. delaying its completion and extending its duration more and more . however.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM imagined by current U. A good example of this is illustrated by the development of aeronautics. an equivalent extension would result in healthy. and wide and novel applications. each of our breakthroughs in medicine and life-extension re-initiate the transition period. the completion is increasingly likely to occur as a collapse. I am not a flagbearing pessimist.N. and a population stabilizes. The current demographics are just not sustainable. technologies. and ninth billions between now and mid-century.8 Afro-Caribbean 1. each of these extra and unexpected billions increases the possibility and seriousness of overshoot. noting that in human terms. Similar patterns have also characterized the development of computers. we repeatedly extend and perpetuate the period of demographic transition (with its skyrocketing populations) so that its completion never occurs or is repeatedly postponed. our species has followed a repeated pattern following new discoveries and technical advances: First there is an initial achievement or discovery that is quickly followed by rapid advances. All of the above examples thus suggest that today's advances in medicine. One problem is. and fifth mortality reduction in increasingly quick succession. Recent research studies. communications. Orville and Wilbur Wright flew a heavier-than-air vehicle for twelve seconds and a distance of 120 feet. molecular genetics. overpopulated India. demographers commonly envision our time of soaring populations as a transition period during which fertility rates have not yet caught up to our falling mortality rates. As a result. have to fall to just 4/10ths of a child per woman . I am an engineer from India and population & demographic issues have been of particular interest to me. a continuation of today's demographic tidal wave may constitute the greatest single risk that our species has ever undertaken. however. that such anticipations may well be subverted by a problematic aspect of transition theory. In the coming decades.8 Indian 2. page 14. in actual laboratory organisms can ever be widely-achieved in human populations.over and over and over again – so that we live in a perpetual state of transition.3 Pakistani 4. The coming decades will definitely throw up many huge surprises. like resveratrol) seem set to perhaps amplify and worsen our current overshoot and carry us calamitously past natural thresholds and tipping points that should not be transgressed. perhaps. I sincerely believe that this planet can only sustain around 1-1. as well as the rest of the world. and molecular biology – each beginning with technical advances. and suppose that the transition will complete itself any decade now. North Carolina in 1903. and medicine that are currently making reductions in death rates so quickly and repeatedly that offsetting fertility reductions do not (or cannot) occur in the short times available. and technology lower mortality rates not just once. (If what has already been accomplished. current demographic theory envisions a period of “demographic transition” during which there is a time-delay before reductions in fertility occur to reflect the reduced mortality (and during this lag-time. and medical advances institute a second. For example. active 500-year-olds. In this circumstance. DNA technologies. if we are already close to or beyond earth's long-term limits.
" Really.6 Rest of Africa 2. Posted by: Ronnie Safreed | 12/28/09 To Ronnie Safreed Without exception.7 As Berthoud says "If the overall trend in Britain is from ‘old fashioned family values’ towards ‘modern individualism’. wondering why he had not applied for an early pension. but that only exists for disabled people.0 Other New Commonwealth 2.wilsonquarterly. South Asians.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM Bangladeshi 4. shelter. I'll be one of those seniors in 10 years. from memory).cfm?aid=1408 Page 10 of 13 . red&brown peoples are catching up. or my brother in Berlin could have afforded to move after about 7 years of unemployment. Posted by: Laban Tall | 10/3/09 Something Evil Tampering With The Human Gene Pool Isnt it interesting that the first people to use birth control&limit family size were white Europeans. you are silly. I cringe when I think of people having more children than they can feed. isn't it? Posted by: Peggy Saint-Michel | 6/19/10 German data wrong German retirement age is not 60 but 65. with very high rates of marriage and of fertility. He perished at the age of 60 in a de-tenanting campaign when the building was to be redeveloped to luxury apartments. In sub-saharian black Africa children are like "ants" everywhere. it implies that UK-born women of Bangladeshi origin have higher fertility than Bangladeshi-born women in the UK. education and love.2 Rest of World 1. it has been&will continue to be a dismal failure to see the worlds black population to slow down-it is never going to happen. The devil only wants the black genetics to be the whole human race in the future&he is doing a fine job of bringing this to pass. Egypt.com/article. but based in statistical information nonetheless.8 If these two sets of data are correct.but the key data is the much higher birthrate for both Pakistani and Bangladeshi women. the other postings include factual information from which a conclusion has been drawn and presented . while the revese is true for Pakistanis. Education and kindness of spirit is the way to live on this planet with a whole lot of other people. There isn't a magic number of children anyone should have as long and they can provide a good life for them. whether UK-born or not. Our planet has a finite amount of resources and at some point the question should be.some of which are just as racially charged as yours. I did check for a pension at 60.5 United Kingdom 1. but I've provided for my own future and won't become a dependent of my children or society.7 Bangladesh 3. that was really longg (: Posted by: anoymous | 4/28/10 Interesting discussion of population I think the bottom line is that all people everywhere should only have as many children as they can care for emotionally and physically. I think. recently upped to 67 for people born after 1968 (I think. 2006" Table 9. (Starting with the 2011 shifts of power in Tunisia. but the only loving choice is to have the number of children you can give a good life." There are also figures available for total fertility by country of birth of mother (more than 20% of UK births are to mothers themselves born overseas) in the "Series FM1 no. That's just common sense. with high and rising rates of single parenthood. it can be argued that of the principal minority groups. now Asians&other yellow. However many black people are still resistant to birth control or limiting their family sizes. and Yemen) Posted by: macaw | 2/2/11 https://www. but not for their own people.. irrational fear of Black people. 35 Birth statistics Review of the Registrar General on births and patterns of family building in England and Wales. in speeding up the modernization of the middle east. The German welfare system is only generous for foreigners. Posted by: former Berliner | 6/29/10 very interesting combination of facts.9 East Africa 1. Just like it has been a failure to encourage white Europeans to have more children. However. you have neglected to do so and have only revealed that you live under the cloud of a deep. The devil you say. The welfare system is not generous. Posted by: RefutetheFoolishness | 12/30/09 wow wow. are behind the trend.6 India 2.3 Pakistan 4. I hope we don't have a whole lot of future children who grow up without food. Seems an unlikely hypothesis . we are going to see some big changes in the Arab world. Still thinking "that this is an evil plot of the white man to exterminate the black man". Why? Children are a wonderful priceless gift. and especially Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. in these "teens" years. I think the Muslim immigration to western countries could be a very good thing. while Caribbeans are ahead of the trend.. is the world population sustainable on this planet? I enjoyed all of this discussion until ignorance reared it's stupid head with the comment "The devil only wants the black genetics to be the whole human race in the future.
Posted by: James | 3/28/11 labor force contumacy --healthy nonagenarians will work til we drop to keep brain alive [losses in divorce & embezzlement make retirement impossible anyway] --syntelligence is bound to ameliorate shortage of skilled labor by mid-century --imagine participation & productivity implix of downloading mind & memory to clones of choice. No amount of technology will keep up with this kind of growth. The increases in wages in 1974 was 20% across the board.stuff you don't really need. the human population would be around 100 million.followed by a cheap funeral. https://www. along with a lot of innocent people who used to trust them.fashionable clothes. I learned two things working at a bank: 1. acc. The carrying capacity of the earth with everyone living at the very lowest level of subsistence is 6.4 billion.or reductions in medical spending for health problems caused by abuse of health. The changing life pattern in the world are hinged on population growth hence the need to equate and stabilize the forces that promote and exercebate this explosive trend Posted by: ude obeten | 6/3/11 I did not reproduce If 4 people were exterminated every second for the next 86 years. That is exponential growth that no one writing to you even mentioned. probabilistic life-expectancy means seniors in rewarding jobs. it will be caused by our own stupidity and narrow dogmatic beliefs.wilsonquarterly. to Delphi Projections] --what's more.booze.untilyou dropdead. combining experience w/'juvenal' ambition & energy [collapse of wave-function has been overcome in theory. nor do any political leader in the world address the topic. but no working model before 2085. Put these two ideas together.saving up for old age instead of spending money on:dogs.vacations to foreign countries.cats. but the lowest clerk got a . Religions of known types adamantly resist any kind of population stabilization. 2.junk food..cars.drugs. Posted by: Charles Brown. The world population is doubling every 40 years.9 billion and counting. Compound interest. as the policy makers of the corporations have and you have part of the recipe for todays problems. may refuse to make way for younger cohorts --auto-endlosung might be encouraged as a public service -Baysian analysis mite upgrade forecasts of demographic structure Posted by: don bronkema | 4/27/11 population explosion Attempting to mix cultural or racial topics with the rate the world human population is exploding.5% increase and the highest in the administration got a 18%.cfm?aid=1408 Page 11 of 13 . is clearly a distraction from the main issue. We are now at about 6. Most people simply cannot understand exponential growth.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM Wage disparity One more time. And it will not be some so called "Armageddon" by some god. They gave themselves a lot of rope and just ended up hanging themselves with it. There are lots of ways to compute percentage.. | 4/30/11 how yall know all this Posted by: ti | 4/30/11 dynamics of population The most efficient indicator for determining economic development is the changing trend in population growth which often is not compared with infrastructure ane resources distribution especially in Africa. or shortly before.D.working as long as possible(even part-time). or those who need income.com/article. Ph. For that reason it is apparent that we are headed directly towards the world's greatest disaster of epic proportions.ie (smoking/lung cancer) resulting in earlier demise of health-abusing seniors. Posted by: Susan Lorraine Knox | 3/6/11 Words Shmerds No ones gonna do squat about anything Noone is soo many people Thats your names Posted by: Someone | 3/25/11 :) more uneducated people more problems Posted by: radek | 3/27/11 Cost of Seniors Cost of seniors can be offset by:taking better care of your health.
The humans of the whole world have voted the Tiger as the favorite animal. etc. 1-1½b. Thank you for reading this =D Posted by: Maddy | 11/13/11 Population pressure and carrying capacity. African. because we will favor ourselves to extinction after we kill off all the other species we favor so much. I think if we kill of those few hundred (or thousand). why do we in the west continually import people from those segments of the world where overpopulation and excessive growth foreshadow disaster? Is the logical solution not then to reduce. than to continue wholesale distribution of the problems of overpopulation to every corner of the earth. Asian. and invariably overshoot. the levels of immigration into western culture? Continue to support policies intended to assure the health and longevity of populations in the parts of the world with birth rates of 3/4/5+ and those segments of the planet.com/2011/01/seven-billion/kunzig-text/1 Posted by: WY | 8/26/11 9 billion stop doing babys right now Posted by: rubens | 11/5/11 making children understand every thing i have read is good but i think they shld make another website that children can read and have fun with Posted by: chika tasie | 11/11/11 Bull**** I know some of you wont agree maybe but i have the right to state my opinion. Exporting portions of the local populations from these areas can serve no other purpose but to free up more capacity to spur successive generations to return to increased levels of unsustainable procreation. which also hapens to be the species of animal on earth that the humans have brought 3 subpecies of to extinction. That is us humans for you.nationalgeographic. Posted by: Natale Ngong | 12/2/11 https://www.cfm?aid=1408 Page 12 of 13 . but regardless. the rest of the world can then supply compassionate humanitarian aid to alleviate some of the suffering while still coldly recognizing that it is a fundamental problem of overpopulation causing the distress and realizing that exporting a percentage of those populations to the western world only serves to harm the west. better to raise the standards of living in these areas so that they are equally motivated to birth rates in the vicinity of sustainability. We in Africa especially in south sudan do not have any problem with rising of population since 2/3 of our land remains unoocupied. LONG PIG will waste the place!! Posted by: Arne Risy | 6/3/11 How do the theories apply to reality Always amazing how some are able to determine the carrying capacity of the planet. the issues of overpopulation won't seem as difficult to manage. we can pobably do 5 times more waste laying then we did in the last 200 years.The Wilson Quarterly: The World's New Numbers by Martin Walker 8/09/12 2:51 PM but I feel that may still be too many modern humans for the earths other populations to endure. I'd like to propose that we begin with all the sociopaths and homicidal maniacs. Either a percentage of populations fail to thrive in local areas of overpopulation. Logically then it seems we should not favor ourselves. Modern age i think is the trouble now a days shows show teens and others having sex all the time what example does that send! And all the people that make news saying they're pregnant! One girl said "I only want a baby for fame" that's just BULL**** man! if you want a baby you better have enough money time and responsibility oh and commitment before you think about fame! Parents if your child is having sex don't ask if they are using protection that just encourages them! Plus protection dont always work fool! We need to cut back the way this is going we're going to use up all our fresh water which is what we should worry about. Back then when people did it (I'm young here so mind your own business) and they were married they either felt guilty about it or got in massive trouble usually both but no a days adults (and even kids which is an outrage in my opinion) are having sex all willy nilly and don't care about results! Back then they did.4b. Try http://ngm. supposition based on supposition based on estimation of future statistically probability.com/article. or a percentage of populations fail to thrive globally. must eventually reduce their population growths to sustainable levels or overshoot and have those levels reduced. making the kill per second 86 people. the cold hard facts of life and death are unavoidable. reduce. and ultimately achieve equilibrium. to a level of negligible effect. We have a duty to help our fellow man when they are starving or driven to war and violence by socio-economic factors. might as well entitle the report a fictionalized possibility of the one man's opinion. Then also there is the fact that in 86 years from this point on. we don't have a responsibility to agree to starve with others who breed themselves to the brink of starvation. such an impressive ability to make up numbers!! If ALL organisms eventually expand to consume the full extent of resources available to them. As some governments have already recognized and taken measures. so it seems maybe it's best to swap the figures. And to those that advocate the slaughter of our fellow human beings. 6.wilsonquarterly. Hopefully out of the 100 million that are left will have the sense to watch closely if or not another reduction should be made. As for the report itself. it will only take 3 years. 2b. 1b.
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?