TO: FROM

:

Interested Parties Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Jessica Paulson Grove Insight, Ltd. Recent polling in AZ-02 shows Ron Barber well ahead of Martha McSally October 1, 2012

RE: DATE:

This analysis is based on 400 interviews among likely 2012 general election voters in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
Ron Barber is well placed to win in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. Ron Barber currently holds a 14-point lead over Martha McSally. Barber garners a majority
“If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today for whom would you vote?”
Barber McSally Undecided 54% 40% 6%

(54%), while McSally trails with only 40% of the vote. Few voters (6%) remain undecided and

up-for-grabs in this race.

Barber is a popular figure in this district, while voters are more divided and undecided over McSally. Voters know who Barber is, and like what they see. A majority (51%) say they have favorable impressions of him, while only 32% dislike the Congressman.

On the other hand, McSally is a much more divisive figure. Only 38% have favorable opinions of her, while 32% don’t like her. candidate. Another 17% can’t rate the Republican

Given these findings and the slight Democratic tilt in a district where Obama leads by seven-points and voters are much more fond of him, than Romney, Barber is in a good position to hold onto his seat in November.