Interested Parties Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Jessica Paulson Grove Insight, Ltd. Recent polling in AZ-02 shows Ron Barber well ahead of Martha McSally October 1, 2012


This analysis is based on 400 interviews among likely 2012 general election voters in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 27-30, 2012. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
Ron Barber is well placed to win in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. Ron Barber currently holds a 14-point lead over Martha McSally. Barber garners a majority
“If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today for whom would you vote?”
Barber McSally Undecided 54% 40% 6%

(54%), while McSally trails with only 40% of the vote. Few voters (6%) remain undecided and

up-for-grabs in this race.

Barber is a popular figure in this district, while voters are more divided and undecided over McSally. Voters know who Barber is, and like what they see. A majority (51%) say they have favorable impressions of him, while only 32% dislike the Congressman.

On the other hand, McSally is a much more divisive figure. Only 38% have favorable opinions of her, while 32% don’t like her. candidate. Another 17% can’t rate the Republican

Given these findings and the slight Democratic tilt in a district where Obama leads by seven-points and voters are much more fond of him, than Romney, Barber is in a good position to hold onto his seat in November.