MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT:

INTERESTED PARTIES ROBERT BLIZZARD – PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES RECENT NY CD-21 POLLING DATA

DATE: OCTOBER 3, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________________ As you know, Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a survey of 400 likely voters in New York Congressional District 21 on behalf of the Matt Doheny for Congress campaign and the NRCC. The poll was conducted October 1-2, 2012 and has a margin of error of +/- 5% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY DATA Matt Doheny and Bill Owens are in a statistical dead heat. Republican Matt Doheny trails Congressman Bill Owens by just five points (40%-45%), within the poll’s margin of error. Further, in terms of committed support, the percentage of voters who say they will “definitely” vote for either candidate is the same. DOHENY 28% 12% 40% OWENS 28% 17% 45%

Definitely Probably TOTAL

And, among those voters most interested in the November election, it’s just a one-point race (Doheny 43% - Owens 44%). Bill Owens is clearly a vulnerable incumbent. When voters are asked whether Bill Owens should be re-elected or if it is time for a new person, just 35% of likely voters say he should be re-elected. Voters in this district want a Republican as a check-and-balance on Obama’s policies. Fully 47% believe it is more important to elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama’s policies and programs, while just 39% say it is more important to elect a Democrat who will support President Obama’s policies and programs. BOTTOM LINE Not only has Matt Doheny’s standing on the ballot improved dramatically from the early September Siena Poll (Doheny 36% - Owens 49%), but Owens remains very vulnerable in a district that wants a checkand-balance on the President’s programs and policies. It’s clear the momentum is on Matt Doheny’s side in this race.
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Page 1