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Interested Parties The Mellman Group, Inc. Montana House Race Remains Close October 4, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 electorate in Montana using a registrationbased sample including cell phones and landlines. Six hundred interviews were conducted by telephone between September 23-26, 2012. The margin of error for each question is +/-4% at a 95% level of confidence.

Our recently completed survey in Montana shows the race for the state’s at-large Congressional seat is neck and neck, with Republican Steve Daines holding a narrow 2-point lead over Democrat Kim Gillan. Even in this Republican leaning state, Daines fails to break free of Gillan or to break 40%. With a quarter of the electorate still undecided, and the leading candidates still under 40%, the House race is still wide open going into the final stretch. In the three-way vote, Daines leads Gillan (36%34%) with Libertarian candidate David Kaiser getting 5%. Gillan leads among women, younger voters (18-39 years old) and in the Missoula and Great Falls media markets.

Montana’s House Race Is Tied

Congressional Vote





25% Gillan is keeping up with Daines, in spite of 20% Romney’s lead in the 5% Presidential race in Montana (44% Obama, 0% 48% Romney). Moreover, Gillan Daines Kaiser Undecided undecided voters in the Congressional race break evenly in the Presidential (38% for Obama, 39% for Romney) signaling that Daines cannot count on Romney alone to carry him over the finish line.

Clearly the House race in Montana is quite competitive. If Gillan has the money to compete with Daines in voter outreach, this race will remain close until election day.
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